Search found 1436 matches

by Theoretical
Thu Jul 26, 2018 12:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heresy: is using a SP500 index still a valid strategy ?
Replies: 28
Views: 4812

Re: Heresy: is using a SP500 index still a valid strategy ?

Yes, for several reasons. One, it's a bargain basement cheap way to access US stocks. Costs matter. Two, even with the FAANGs, you've still got plenty of other conglomerates in the picture. It's not like some countries where one stock is 40% of the market cap. Three, the correlation between differen...
by Theoretical
Wed Jul 25, 2018 12:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any reason to hold junk bond fund?
Replies: 50
Views: 4964

Re: Any reason to hold junk bond fund?

Yeah Junk is one of those assets that’s rather easy to time, perhaps not in a way to pick the right points, but most definitely on the “now’s a bad time” or the “even if it is a falling knife, I’m STILL getting a killer deal” category as long as you’re diversified. I also think there’s a highly prac...
by Theoretical
Sun Jul 22, 2018 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short versus Intermediate Term Bond
Replies: 57
Views: 5692

Re: Short versus Intermediate Term Bond

Given that at one point in the not so distant past, long bonds were referred to as "certificates of confiscation," I suspect that there is more to the story than your post would lead one to believe. :) People have all sorts of feelings about bonds. I prefer to make my investment decisions based on ...
by Theoretical
Sat Jul 21, 2018 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Stocks and Margin Loans as Inflation Hedges
Replies: 12
Views: 1053

Re: Value Stocks and Margin Loans as Inflation Hedges

I think that Managed futures funds could do extremely well in the 1970s inflationary spike situation, one because the majority of the collateral is in ultrashort cash-type instruments, and two because in a bad inflationary spot, you could see some major trends develop in currencies, commodities, and...
by Theoretical
Fri Jul 20, 2018 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?
Replies: 78
Views: 5906

Re: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?

Ishares has a Barclays aggregate that includes far more types - including high yield - its IUSB.
by Theoretical
Fri Jul 20, 2018 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index-ish fund that lacks FAANG?
Replies: 45
Views: 4807

Re: Index-ish fund that lacks FAANG?

That’s why the last paragraph is in there. Here’s another scenario: you’ve got tons of restricted stock in a particular company that gives you huge single stock risk. In that instance, these products allow you to get CLOSER to the market’s sector concentration, especially since you can’t short stock...
by Theoretical
Fri Jul 20, 2018 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index-ish fund that lacks FAANG?
Replies: 45
Views: 4807

Re: Index-ish fund that lacks FAANG?

The OP is trying to hedge exposure, not concentrate it even more. Put another way, this is someone with a massive exposure to 4 stocks (regardless of what the raw portfolio says) and the tech sector more broadly. That’s why shorting is potentially on the table and is not an inherently speculative mo...
by Theoretical
Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?
Replies: 78
Views: 5906

Re: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?

With high yields it’s also important to note that there are major differences in quality and viability between fallen angels and original issue junk. The former category has the interesting characteristic of gaining company diversification in times of credit downgrades, with some nice recovery benef...
by Theoretical
Wed Jul 18, 2018 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 330
Views: 26155

Re: Invest in Tesla?

Terrible idea. Tesla is a cool company with truly horrifying fundamentals and some of the junkiest of junk debt.
by Theoretical
Sun Jul 15, 2018 12:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ideas for intermediate-term savings
Replies: 4
Views: 670

Re: Ideas for intermediate-term savings

Something to consider here is that intermediate needs have a greater need for return OF capital than return ON capital. A traditional bond fund requires you to hold for its duration to fully make up for a rise in interest rates. That gap can hurt you a lot if interest rates rise, the bond funds are ...
by Theoretical
Fri Jul 13, 2018 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [EU] How to bypasses MIFID II, PRIPS and buy US ETFs
Replies: 7
Views: 888

Re: [EU] How to bypasses MIFID II, PRIPS and buy US ETFs

Here’s the problem: you’re likely to invoke US non resident alien estate and gift taxes which are insanely punitive above $60k.
by Theoretical
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: StreetShares bonds
Replies: 23
Views: 2136

Re: Street Smart bonds

Oh! I am so glad to hear that, and it’s a good example of where a salesman can trigger some sanity back into the discussion inadvertently.
by Theoretical
Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 9605

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

One note is that ther was a Federalky imposed interest rate cap in the 1940s that deliberately was under inflation. It’s not how bills would have performed without that cap.

It’s certainly a risk, but is a confiscatory risk rather than an inherently inflationary one.
by Theoretical
Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 9605

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

For the 2 years ending yesterday, Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFIUX), often characterized here as an even safer alternative to Total Bond Market, is down -3.84% and down almost -10% after taxes and inflation. I don't think something that drops ~10% in real terms over 2 years even remotely ...
by Theoretical
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: StreetShares bonds
Replies: 23
Views: 2136

Re: Street Smart bonds

I did email reply for "more information" and immediately received the salesman's (not surprising) offer to add up to $1000 to my deposit (depending on the amount of same). That was the compete clincher for me. Wait, that was the clincher to buy ?! I get a brokerage throwing money at you to gain ass...
by Theoretical
Mon Jul 09, 2018 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity cash position
Replies: 55
Views: 8023

Re: Fidelity cash position

No it will not, so you do have to buy or sell.
by Theoretical
Sun Jul 08, 2018 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: What to Consider When Picking Multifactor ETFs
Replies: 83
Views: 6012

Re: Morningstar: What to Consider When Picking Multifactor ETFs

Thus far, the only ETFs that have major loads going on are a small cap ETF that's likely to close (DESC with 11 MM in assets) and the Vanguard funds. The iShares multifactor large cap products are such nominal tilts that you're getting minor tracking error (positive or negative), but they're better ...
by Theoretical
Sun Jul 08, 2018 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WCI blog post - "This Real Estate Bubble - Likely Isn't a Bubble"
Replies: 58
Views: 7201

Re: WCI blog post - "This Real Estate Bubble - Likely Isn't a Bubble"

Limited in terms of regions. Look at Dallas for 2008. It’s ugly but not the terribleness of Miami or LA. What I was trying to say is there’s definitely a crazy local/regional bubble in Texas, but it is encouraging that there’s not quite as systematic stuff elsewhere. Also the lending standards thing...
by Theoretical
Sun Jul 08, 2018 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WCI blog post - "This Real Estate Bubble - Likely Isn't a Bubble"
Replies: 58
Views: 7201

Re: WCI blog post - "This Real Estate Bubble - Likely Isn't a Bubble"

Lending standards being better is totally wrong.

Living in Dallas, we definitely have a bad housing bubble going on right now here. Good news is it looks fairly limited.
by Theoretical
Sun Jul 08, 2018 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity cash position
Replies: 55
Views: 8023

Re: Fidelity cash position

I don’t know, what does the prospectus say?
by Theoretical
Sat Jul 07, 2018 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison
Replies: 66
Views: 6109

Re: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison

I look at these in a different way. These are not the worst case portfolio disasters. The real beasts are the single stock risk calamities (or single country in case of the Axis and Soviet Bloc). Those guys made even the 100% stock portfolios look great in comparison.
by Theoretical
Fri Jul 06, 2018 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 28 w/heavy small cap tilt?
Replies: 41
Views: 3396

Re: 28 w/heavy small cap tilt?

An SV fund can easily eliminate single stock risk and be exposed to market, size, value. And as I said, momentum and quality/profitability are likely more pronounced in the small realm, and SV funds can screen for these factors as well. That is not what I have found in general using the Portfolio V...
by Theoretical
Fri Jul 06, 2018 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity cash position
Replies: 55
Views: 8023

Re: Fidelity cash position

I use FCONX, the Conservative Income Fund for cash. While its ER is .35%, that’s lower than the money market of .42%, and I like how the fund is structured - credit risk on the extremely short term and term risk taken with higher rates securities. It’s primarily corporates and has about a 2 month du...
by Theoretical
Sun Jul 01, 2018 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Hedge funds basically scams?
Replies: 36
Views: 3410

Re: Are Hedge funds basically scams?

Re: VMFMX, with long only funds, the transaction costs aren’t reported but for funds that go short, they have to report the dividends paid out to the securities lenders. Ergo, the inherent fees to running a fund vs the management expenses. By the way, this is the big difference between the AQR marke...
by Theoretical
Sun Jul 01, 2018 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Hedge funds basically scams?
Replies: 36
Views: 3410

Re: Are Hedge funds basically scams?

Strategies: no (they may not be good or wise but they’re not like a Ponzi scheme)
Fee Structure: absolutely for the 2/20 fees, mostly for the 20% performance fee.
by Theoretical
Wed Jun 27, 2018 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory
Replies: 65
Views: 9268

Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

EM valuations are getting back to the crazy cheap for value. Even aside from valuation issues, its standard deviation is so high it’s always a roller coaster.
by Theoretical
Mon Jun 25, 2018 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Long Term Factors
Replies: 27
Views: 2288

Re: Larry Swedroe: Long Term Factors

Something very important to appreciate not mentioned in the article is how the factors mix with each other; correlations tend to be low yielding substantial portfolio diversification benefit when diversified across factors. Larry’s factor book is is worth it just for two tables in Chapter 9 where h...
by Theoretical
Sun Jun 24, 2018 12:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Looking for Mazda CX-9 Feedback
Replies: 45
Views: 5232

The myth Re: Looking for Mazda CX-9 Feedback

Road trips average to about 24-25 MPG. Her usage in the city is abnormal because we live very close to her work, she generally uses <30 MPG low speed residential roads and the like so there it’s like 20 MPG, but even my Elantra struggles to hit 30 in conditions like that. It really doesn’t matter be...
by Theoretical
Sun Jun 24, 2018 12:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Looking for Mazda CX-9 Feedback
Replies: 45
Views: 5232

Re: Looking for Mazda CX-9 Feedback

We have a 2016 CX-9 Touring, and it is an amazing SUV. We just helped a friend move and you would not believe how much stuff can be packed in there. The 2-3-2 seating is excellent for the vast majority of daily uses. It's a very serious near-luxe car, and the engine design is downright technically b...
by Theoretical
Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone with a paid off house drop homeowners insurance
Replies: 79
Views: 6358

Re: Anyone with a paid off house drop homeowners insurance

What you should do is negotiate a very high deductible (5, 10 or even 20K) and self insure for that. That will drop your premiums by a lot. But you absolutely need the insurance especially because you can self insure for liability purposes.
by Theoretical
Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: McKinsey: Rising corporate debt: Peril or promise?
Replies: 6
Views: 886

Re: McKinsey: Rising corporate debt: Peril or promise?

In my mind, the other problem is that the ratings agencies are still corrupt/improperly influenced/using bad models. Examples include the drastically lower quality of corporate debt classified as BBB (much higher leverage) and the absolute mockery that has become municipal bond ratings where Tenness...
by Theoretical
Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oh my! Cardone says we need $10m net worth
Replies: 104
Views: 14763

Re: Oh my! Cardone says we need $10m net worth

Who is Cardone and why should I care what he is saying? :shock: :twisted: Forgive me for criticizing your comments, but I read this type of statements too often. My view is this approach is wrong and maybe dangerous. It is not important who the person is, Cardone or someone else, what is important ...
by Theoretical
Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help Buying Mens Shoes for Work and Dating
Replies: 97
Views: 9432

Re: Help Buying Mens Shoes for Work and Dating

I've found some extremely nice shoes in great condition at a couple of local consignment and thrift shops. Look especially at ones near wealthy areas of town. Even at the higher end store, Allen Edmonds are typically $100-120.
by Theoretical
Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bogleheads smarter than the bond market?
Replies: 40
Views: 4636

Re: Are Bogleheads smarter than the bond market?

Retail investors have access to 100% FDIC insured savings accounts (duration of 0) with interest rates that on the highest end rival 3 month t-bills. The CD liquidity premium is also very well known and while not as strong as it was last year or even before, they still gives a premium over treasuri...
by Theoretical
Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bogleheads smarter than the bond market?
Replies: 40
Views: 4636

Re: Are Bogleheads smarter than the bond market?

Retail investors have access to 100% FDIC insured savings accounts (duration of 0) with interest rates that on the highest end rival 3 month t-bills. The CD liquidity premium is also very well known and while not as strong as it was last year or even before, they still gives a premium over treasurie...
by Theoretical
Sat Jun 16, 2018 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oh my! Cardone says we need $10m net worth
Replies: 104
Views: 14763

Re: Oh my! Cardone says we need $10m net worth

I think what he's describing is analagous to Nassim Taleb's " [(removed) --admin LadyGeek] money" where you just don't have to worry about money anymore to live remotely comfortably. The real problem is that he's clearly selling his strategies by saying the only two options are a bank account earnin...
by Theoretical
Sat Jun 09, 2018 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 150
Views: 24031

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

Cash / short term fixed income. It's not really that bonds are bad, it's more that he doesn't like the risk/return characteristics of the intermediate and longer term issues. Just shorten the duration of the bond portion of your portfolio if you are really concerned, but abandoning fixed income ent...
by Theoretical
Sat Jun 09, 2018 11:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 150
Views: 24031

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

Why buy bonds when CD's are beating or at least very near bnd returns? I just can not understand why locking in such a low yield is a good idea? If interested rates go up you lose even more. How is a brokered CD any different than buying a Treasury bill or note except for the fact that a Treasury i...
by Theoretical
Sat Jun 09, 2018 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 150
Views: 24031

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

You sound like the person who picks one or two individual stocks and gets a good return, and declares stock picking is a good low-effort activity that doesn't take much effort to get right. Of course some people do that and feel that way. But you live in an extremely atypical world where "most" of ...
by Theoretical
Sat Jun 09, 2018 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 150
Views: 24031

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

Cash / short term fixed income. It's not really that bonds are bad, it's more that he doesn't like the risk/return characteristics of the intermediate and longer term issues. Just shorten the duration of the bond portion of your portfolio if you are really concerned, but abandoning fixed income ent...
by Theoretical
Thu Jun 07, 2018 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: in idea with SCV and leverage..
Replies: 23
Views: 2070

Re: in idea with SCV and leverage..

here's one for example.. run a pure 100% SCV, when it hits a 35% downfall, leverage in at ... lets just say 20%, it hits down to 40-50, you leverage in again to 50%, this of course is betting we don't hit a depression, then you get wiped out, game over.. but with this theory, you cannot know the fu...
by Theoretical
Sat Jun 02, 2018 6:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: work one more year or attend law school
Replies: 67
Views: 5667

Re: work one more year or attend law school

What are the conditions to KEEP the full ride scholarships at the T10 law schools? I've seen both kinds in the local law schools, some where you have to screw up to lose it (keep a B average at a school with a B+ curve) and others where it's insanely hard to keep and where even bad luck can cost you...
by Theoretical
Sat Jun 02, 2018 9:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Gift tax exclusion - gifting to multiple people who then gift to one person?
Replies: 19
Views: 2060

Re: Gift tax exclusion - gifting to multiple people who then gift to one person?

If someone wants to gift $150k to one person, he would need to report it because it is in excess of $15k. But, could that person gift to 10 different people $15k each, and then those people immediately turn around and gift $15k to person X, and then the gift falls within the exclusion limit? Or is ...
by Theoretical
Wed May 30, 2018 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What diversification am I getting?
Replies: 13
Views: 1388

Re: What diversification am I getting?

Thanks all for their inputs. (1) I computed the same correlations with monthly averaging. No significant differences (as was expected) (2) During the financial crisis, the investment returns in India and China were good - I was expecting (hoping) that the the Vanguard Emerging Markets fund would ha...
by Theoretical
Wed May 30, 2018 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What diversification am I getting?
Replies: 13
Views: 1388

Re: What diversification am I getting?

The other factor is that you have not seen a period with viable international stock funds in a major US inflationary environment. But there, it's more a factor of currency than it is returns. It's why Bill Bernstein has made the strong deep risk argument for unhedged international stocks as an infla...
by Theoretical
Wed May 30, 2018 12:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index fund investing requires active management
Replies: 10
Views: 2372

Re: Index fund investing requires active management

I wonder how much effort and cost could be saved if they were not so tightly bound to the index? DFA's funds, which do exactly that, have higher expense ratios than Vanguard's index funds. Low, but definitely higher. Typically in 0.30% territory for asset subclasses where Vanguard's, and others' in...
by Theoretical
Wed May 23, 2018 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do "traditional slice-and-dice" portfolios split 50/50 between value and blend?
Replies: 13
Views: 1183

Re: Why do "traditional slice-and-dice" portfolios split 50/50 between value and blend?

I think in its headier (lower AUM) days, DFA may have provided a far deeper tilt with tracking error, so where you might have done half small value and half small blend in the past, ishares S&P 600 Value alone gets you there now in one fund. Also, nowadays, it's basically a DFA Core fund or a RAFI f...
by Theoretical
Sun May 20, 2018 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: No Need For Corp Bonds?
Replies: 38
Views: 4397

Re: Larry Swedroe: No Need For Corp Bonds?

I wonder if corporates are a better diversifier for a heavy growth/quality tilt. They're definitely not for value, though I think the structure of Fallen Angel indexes means they could be uniquely suited to harvest value in bonds (a vast array of good bonds get degraded in the crisis and then spring...
by Theoretical
Fri May 18, 2018 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans
Replies: 130
Views: 15671

Re: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans

@Dead Man Walking I agree with you that some of these are hard to implement apart from an advisor, though some of the alts do have mutual fund availability or alternatives to the AQR universe. For Alt Lending, there's a few other Interval funds that may be available without an advisor. Insurance Lin...
by Theoretical
Mon May 14, 2018 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'
Replies: 42
Views: 6521

Re: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'

I agree with Nedsaid (like usual). "I don't think value is going away anytime soon". Here are a couple of fun little article's for your reading enjoyment. http://theconservativeincomeinvestor.com/2013/12/16/the-fun-thing-about-blue-chip-dividend-stocks/ http://theconservativeincomeinvestor.com/2013...