Search found 316 matches

by Jim180
Sun Feb 23, 2014 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Exit Strategy
Replies: 8
Views: 1254

Re: Exit Strategy

I think an exit strategy is something only really needed by someone who is trying to time the markets.The long term investor only needs to sell when re-balancing or if their investment objectives change.
by Jim180
Wed Feb 12, 2014 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wow! Jim Cramer hates passive index investing
Replies: 52
Views: 7132

Re: Wow! Jim Cramer hates passive index investing

While Cramer's world may be individual stocks, he must realize it's not a strategy for the masses. Maybe a few people are successful with such a strategy, but I'd bet for each one that succeeds, nine others fail. It's sort of like the infomercials on flipping homes. A few may make money but most don...
by Jim180
Sat Feb 08, 2014 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing advice for a 14 yr old
Replies: 5
Views: 601

Re: Investing advice for a 14 yr old

One book that would help them learn the investment "lingo" is Wall Street Words by David L. Scott.
by Jim180
Tue Feb 04, 2014 11:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I sold all of my bonds...did I make a mistake?
Replies: 24
Views: 4127

Re: I sold all of my bonds...did I make a mistake?

Sounds like you are investing based upon emotions, and getting "whipsawed" in the process. In 2013 stocks did well, but bonds didn't. So you sold what was doing poorly to get into what was hot. Now in 2014 bonds got off to a good start, but not stocks, so you want to switch back into bonds...
by Jim180
Tue Feb 04, 2014 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early Retirement Example
Replies: 29
Views: 4430

Re: Early Retirement Example

The 4% rule assumes a 30 year retirement. In your example since John is only 25, he is looking at a possible 50-60 year retirement. Because of that I don't think you should conclude that the 4% rule would work in your example. In fact there are some advisors who now feel that a 4% withdrawal rate is...
by Jim180
Mon Jan 20, 2014 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What would you do with cash right now?
Replies: 45
Views: 3755

Re: What would you do with cash right now?

Option 2, and use index funds, not individual stocks.
by Jim180
Sun Jan 19, 2014 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Staying the course which watching CNBC
Replies: 23
Views: 2393

Re: Staying the course which watching CNBC

Remember that CNBC is just for entertainment, not serious investing. Whatever the news of the day is, it is usually forgotten very quickly. Even stories that stay around a while usually go away sometime. Remember when the Greek financial crisis was going on? The talking heads were saying every day t...
by Jim180
Sun Jan 19, 2014 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Buy & Target Stock
Replies: 8
Views: 1360

Re: Best Buy & Target Stock

Share prices of strong companies frequently recover from an unusual event that temporarily sends their share price down. How strong Target and Best Buy are I do not know. I don't think you will get your answer here. Bogleheads prefer Mutual Funds and do not give individual stock advice. Your questio...
by Jim180
Thu Jan 16, 2014 12:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Kudlow bad advice on bonds
Replies: 52
Views: 6014

Re: Larry Kudlow bad advice on bonds

Economists are frequently wrong about their area of expertise, the economy. So why would they know anything about investing?
by Jim180
Thu Jan 16, 2014 12:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 17.6 year stock market cycle
Replies: 59
Views: 8080

Re: 17.6 year stock market cycle

For those familiar with Bob Brinker, he has spoken of this "secular" cycle many times. He has said it can last anywhere from 8-20 years. In 2000 he announced the bear cycle was beginning. His problem was that around 2006 he said it was over, only to say in 2008 that he was wrong, that it w...
by Jim180
Sun Dec 29, 2013 4:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security estimates if early retiring?
Replies: 15
Views: 1952

Re: Social Security estimates if early retiring?

I got my answer the lazy way. I called SSA and a rep did it for me.
by Jim180
Sun Dec 01, 2013 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Market timing jitters
Replies: 22
Views: 2184

Re: Market timing jitters

I'm apprehensive about putting such a big chunk of money into investments in one fell swoop. I'm particularly apprehensive because it's not my money, and I am entrusted to make the best decision with someone else's savings. I think the research shows that putting it in right away is good over the l...
by Jim180
Sun Dec 01, 2013 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Market timing jitters
Replies: 22
Views: 2184

Re: Market timing jitters

In addition to time frame, the other factor is the persons risk tolerance. For example, even in a bull market we can have a 10% correction at any time, so it could drop as soon as invested. How would the person respond to that?
by Jim180
Thu Nov 28, 2013 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?
Replies: 52
Views: 3005

Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

As I cast my vote the futures are pointing higher.
by Jim180
Wed Nov 06, 2013 11:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you put some of your bond money in the TBF?
Replies: 7
Views: 1207

Re: Would you put some of your bond money in the TBF?

The TBF is sometimes called a daily trader. It is up about 9.5% YTD if someone held it all that time. You are right about the TLT it is down about 13.5% they do not trade dollar for dollar what happened to that 4%? The TBF has a ER of about 1% but that leaves 3% unaccounted for. I'm not sure where ...
by Jim180
Wed Oct 30, 2013 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Year Treasury Note interest rate change today
Replies: 5
Views: 1238

Re: 10 Year Treasury Note interest rate change today

That move puzzled me too. I would have thought the bond market would be pleased with no taper. The Fed vote was 9-1 in favor of no taper. Was the bond market expecting a 10-0 vote? Who knows? Nobody can figure out what moves markets sometimes.
by Jim180
Wed Oct 23, 2013 11:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Attempted Hack on my Vanguard Accounts
Replies: 33
Views: 7665

Re: Attempted Hack on my Vanguard Accounts

You can also call client services and add an "enhanced password" that you would have to provide each time you call. This would at least help from a telephone standpoint. Rather than call I wish Vanguard could send us a Security Token like Schwab. Everytime you login you enter the random n...
by Jim180
Wed Oct 23, 2013 7:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why can Auto Insurers give Educational Discounts ?
Replies: 31
Views: 1982

Re: Why can Auto Insurers give Educational Discounts ?

After reading all the responses to my post thus far, I can't help but think of so many ways insurance companies could adjust peoples premiums if they were given access to everyone's personal records. Suppose a person takes prescription meds for mental issues such as anxiety or depression. Many of th...
by Jim180
Wed Oct 23, 2013 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: DCA on Down Days?
Replies: 27
Views: 2225

Re: DCA on Down Days?

One problem with waiting for a down day is that you may have to analyze why it was a down day before you can act. For example did the Dow lose 100 points from normal profit-taking or was it because of some horrible economic news? If it was really bad economic news the market could continue falling f...
by Jim180
Wed Oct 23, 2013 4:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why can Auto Insurers give Educational Discounts ?
Replies: 31
Views: 1982

Why can Auto Insurers give Educational Discounts ?

I recently changed my auto insurance company. My agent sent me an application to sign. On that application was personal information about me that stated I had a college degree. I called my agent and said that was wrong, I did not attend college. She then told me my premium would be a bit higher beca...
by Jim180
Wed Oct 23, 2013 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest Rate 10-Year Treasury Note
Replies: 6
Views: 683

Re: Interest Rate 10-Year Treasury Note

In addition to the weak economic data, I would add that the appointment of Janet Yellen is another factor in the bond rally. Just a few months ago everyone thought it would be Larry Summers. Summers talked of ending QE , but Yellen is more "dovish" so therefore more likely to continue QE.
by Jim180
Wed Oct 23, 2013 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investors Business Daily...worthwhile?
Replies: 18
Views: 2818

Re: Investors Business Daily...worthwhile?

A couple of years ago they ran a commercial claiming the publication's TA predicted the bear market of 07-09 and issued a "sell' signal. Can anyone verify this?
I'd also be curious as to how often their "sell" signals turn out to be false.(i.e. the market rises instead)
by Jim180
Tue Oct 22, 2013 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can bonds/bond funds keep up with inflation by themselves?
Replies: 14
Views: 2305

Re: Can bonds/bond funds keep up with inflation by themselve

If you are asking if there is any way to build wealth with bonds I think the answer is no. Probably at best you can only break even after taxes and inflation over the long term. The only way would be to have perfect marketiming skills. For example if a person would buy junk bonds at the beginning of...
by Jim180
Sun Oct 20, 2013 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I wait out this environment to buy longer term bonds?
Replies: 11
Views: 1670

Re: Should I wait out this environment to buy longer term bo

I think the only time long-term bonds are good is if we were to get into an economic condition like the late 1970's-early 1980's with double-digit interest rates.
by Jim180
Sat Oct 19, 2013 11:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whats the diff between index investing vs buying your own?
Replies: 39
Views: 3253

Re: Whats the diff between index investing vs buying your ow

What is the difference between index investing and buying a large portfolio of self picked stocks and holding onto them until the end of time? Do you have the time to study the earnings reports of 100 companies? Mutual fund managers study reports and talk to the management of the companies they inv...
by Jim180
Fri Oct 18, 2013 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Ladder Using iShares Target Date Bond ETFs
Replies: 10
Views: 1520

Re: Bond Ladder Using iShares Target Date Bond ETFs

I think they are a reasonable choice for someone looking for income without much risk to principal. The only downside would be if yields on bonds go up after you buy the ETF, you are locked into the yield you bought it at. Looks like the earliest maturing one in the I Shares is 2016, so yields could...
by Jim180
Thu Oct 17, 2013 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Suze Orman on NBC Nightly News [doesn't like bond funds]
Replies: 46
Views: 8630

Re: Suze Orman on NBC Nightly News

Maybe Suze Orman does know a lot about investing, but we rarely get to see it. I admit I have not read her books. Her show on CNBC is mostly geared to people who have little money and a lot of debt. If she would sometimes address questions from people who do have money to invest , people might gain ...
by Jim180
Wed Oct 16, 2013 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for young investors
Replies: 12
Views: 1608

Re: Advice for young investors

To invest in index funds. When I was young I spent a lot of time trying to find "the needle in the haystack". After disappointing results I finally decided to buy the "haystack".
by Jim180
Mon Oct 14, 2013 11:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are "defensive stocks" bad in a growth market?
Replies: 5
Views: 575

Re: Why are "defensive stocks" bad in a growth market?

Yes, if you understand beta then you can easily see how much those ETF's help you in down markets and hurt you in up markets. Measure it against a beta of 1.
If your ETF has a beta of .90 if will lose 10% less in down markets, but lag by 10% in up markets.
by Jim180
Mon Oct 14, 2013 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Suze Orman on NBC Nightly News [doesn't like bond funds]
Replies: 46
Views: 8630

Re: Suze Orman on NBC Nightly News

If she wasn't "qualified," why would they have her on NBC Nightly News? Probably because her show is on CNBC which is affiliated with NBC. I was surprised to hear her say she would prefer dividend paying stocks over bond funds for income. That's changing ones AA. What if we have a bear ma...
by Jim180
Wed Oct 09, 2013 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: what to invest during government default?
Replies: 16
Views: 2131

Re: what to invest during government default?

I suppose if anyone believes next week will be armageddon for the U.S. they would invest in gold. I don't believe it is, so I'm using this weakness to add to the stock market. I need more stocks in my AA. If you were happy with your AA before the shutdown then I would make no changes.
by Jim180
Wed Oct 09, 2013 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Surprising GNMAs
Replies: 26
Views: 2978

Re: Surprising GNMAs

My Mom's fund (FUSGX) recently turned the corner in distribution yield. It would appear the demise of these types of bond funds was greatly over-estimated. Comparing the value today with that of several months ago, it's a great yawn, assuming dividends re-invested. Back in May, it was roughly $160K...
by Jim180
Wed Oct 09, 2013 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Boglehead Running the Fed!
Replies: 24
Views: 4493

Re: A Boglehead Running the Fed!

Does anyone have any idea what investment restrictions might exist for a Fed Chairperson? I think a person with such power to influence the markets would have to let everyone know at all times every move they make with their investment portfolios. Any sudden change to a portfolio and someone would s...
by Jim180
Tue Oct 08, 2013 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best site for purchasing bonds
Replies: 9
Views: 1300

Re: Best site for purchasing bonds

If your objective is to hold individual bonds to maturity to protect principal rather than risk principal in a regular bond fund you might want to try a hybrid approach.That approach would be to look at something like the Guggenheim Bulletshares. Those are ETF's with bonds that mature in a specific ...
by Jim180
Tue Oct 08, 2013 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Investor, Wait for the Debt Limit?
Replies: 7
Views: 1088

Re: New Investor, Wait for the Debt Limit?

There are several ways to add money on weakness. Go all-in now, or you can start to DCA. Maybe divide your money into three parts. Add 1/3 after the market drops 5%(which it already did), add another 1/3 if it drops another 5% (10% total) and add the final 1/3 if it drops another 5%(15% total). You ...
by Jim180
Tue Oct 08, 2013 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hedging bond holdings
Replies: 6
Views: 606

Re: Hedging bond holdings

Most Bogleheads would tell you to simply invest in the TBM and forget about what's going on. There are alternatives however. You could invest in funds with a short duration. Vanguard has the Short-term Investment Grade Fund that has held up quite well. Other fund families have "Low duration&quo...
by Jim180
Sat Oct 05, 2013 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Government Shutdown/Default [effect on investments]
Replies: 454
Views: 36502

Re: Government Shutdown [effect on investments]

I think there has been government shutdowns 17 times and in each of those times the market has recovered. The advice is to stay the course. The government won't default. This might even be a good time to BUY stocks if someone feels they are light in equities. It would be foolish to sell stocks one m...
by Jim180
Sat Oct 05, 2013 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Humor in Market Reports
Replies: 18
Views: 2395

Re: Humor in Market Reports

Many times good news is bad news and bad news is good news, although sometimes good news is good news and bad news is bad news. Occasionally no news is good news and any news is bad news. Sometimes rumors of good news cause many to buy, but when the good news becomes fact, many want to sell. I think...
by Jim180
Fri Oct 04, 2013 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about junk bonds.
Replies: 11
Views: 1101

Re: Question about junk bonds.

Junk bonds usually do well in a rising interest rate environment. Rising rates mean a growing economy and therefore low default rates on junk bonds. The best performing Vanguard bond fund this year is the High-Yield Corporate. This fund is currently closed to new investors. I would add that Floating...
by Jim180
Thu Oct 03, 2013 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bogle - Swap Treasuries for Corporates
Replies: 59
Views: 7236

Re: Bogle - Swap Treasuries for Corporates

supertreat wrote:What exactly do you mean by income? Accruing dividends?

I am referring to someone retired who chooses to take the monthly dividends in cash for living expenses rather than reinvesting them.
by Jim180
Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bogle - Swap Treasuries for Corporates
Replies: 59
Views: 7236

Re: Bogle - Swap Treasuries for Corporates

The question, as always, is, if you think you can handle a little more risk, why choose to take it in bonds rather than just nudging up the stock allocation? For someone who is looking for income,I view Corporates as a way to get a bit more income than Treasuries, without the same amount of risk as...
by Jim180
Thu Oct 03, 2013 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bogle - Swap Treasuries for Corporates
Replies: 59
Views: 7236

Re: Bogle - Swap Treasuries for Corporates

If we look at 2008 it can look scary, but there are some that argue that what happened in 2008 was an anomaly that happens once in a generation, so therefore not likely to happen anytime soon. If someone would show a stock market chart from the Great Depression it would convince many to never invest...
by Jim180
Thu Oct 03, 2013 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bogle - Swap Treasuries for Corporates
Replies: 59
Views: 7236

Re: Bogle - Swap Treasuries for Corporates

I have most of my bonds in Corporates. I think they will continue to do well. Treasuries are what you want if you are worried about recession. Assuming the government gets re-started soon, the Fed will end it's QE policy. The Fed would not end QE if they were worried about recession.
by Jim180
Fri Sep 20, 2013 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stocks are about to plunge, Wells Fargo warns"
Replies: 33
Views: 6606

Re: "Stocks are about to plunge, Wells Fargo warns"

She does not speak for everyone at Wells Fargo. Brian Jacobson, Chief Portfolio Strategist at Wells Fargo predicts the S&P to reach 2000 by the end of 2014.
by Jim180
Wed Sep 18, 2013 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The market is on fire
Replies: 134
Views: 17021

Re: The market is on fire

I think everyone is a little ecstatic about the returns today, whether they admit it or not. I know one person who was, Bill Gross. They spoke to him on CNBC right after the Fed announcement. I never seen him so excited. I thought he was going to jump out of his seat and do a dance. Personally I wa...
by Jim180
Sun Sep 15, 2013 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bull's In Charge!
Replies: 32
Views: 3855

Re: The Bull's In Charge!

However, if Johnny Q. Average at my work start talking about how much money he was making off his investments, and pretending to be a "stock market expert", THAT is when I will really get nervous about the footing of our equity markets. I would agree. I think the average investor is still...
by Jim180
Fri Sep 13, 2013 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with investing $20k + 401k fund advice
Replies: 9
Views: 994

Re: Help with investing $20k + 401k fund advice

You say in Part 1 of your plan that you want preservation of principal. You also say you may need it in the next few years, but the three funds you chose all have a good bit of risk. The high-yield muni fund is (-5.42%) so far this year, so that's not too safe. The other two funds are balanced, but ...
by Jim180
Wed Sep 11, 2013 1:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Who taught you about money?
Replies: 91
Views: 8435

Re: Who taught you about money?

My mother taught me to save, but the only investments she ever had was CD's. After I began a job a co-worker who was an investor gave me literature to read. He also got me listening to Bob Brinker on the radio. I learned a lot about investing from Brinker, even though I don't agree with his marketim...
by Jim180
Wed Sep 11, 2013 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are poker and investing similar?
Replies: 26
Views: 3533

Re: Are poker and investing similar?

One way in which they are NOT similar is how success is measured. Investor performance is measured based upon the combination of gains and losses, where in poker the gains are frequently the only measurement used. To illustrate let us say that we hear poker player John Doe has career winnings of $5M...