Search found 1303 matches

by DaveS
Thu Mar 07, 2013 12:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Irrational Exuberance?
Replies: 20
Views: 2981

Re: Irrational Exuberance?

Rick is correct. It's nice to be at a market high but it aint like 2000. But I will say that if there is a bubble right now it's in bonds. People actually are buying TIPS even though their sec yield is negative. Man that's like buying a tech stock that never made a profit at 100 + times projected ea...
by DaveS
Mon Mar 04, 2013 1:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Huge Index Fund "Style Drift" (REITs No Longer Value-Tilted)
Replies: 22
Views: 3122

Re: Huge Index Fund "Style Drift" (REITs No Longer Value-Til

If you define risk as loosing money, I think the high valuations of REITS make them a lot riskier than say, 15 years ago. In addition they are interest rate sensitive, they borrow lot's of money to finance their buildings. Rates are now at historic lows with a likely upward direction at some unknown...
by DaveS
Sun Mar 03, 2013 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review and Future Strategy
Replies: 6
Views: 759

Re: Portfolio Review and Future Strategy

Thanks for your service. The thing I see and don't like it the high cost fund in the taxable. Say you invested in a combination of total international and total stock market at Vanguard. The cost would be less than .2%. Your paying 5 times that for the Am Cent fund, I think I can safely say that it ...
by DaveS
Sun Mar 03, 2013 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stacked up some more silver bullion today
Replies: 100
Views: 18027

Re: Stacked up some more silver bullion today

Were you the guy bragging about how much gold you were buying when it hit $1720 an ounce last fall? It closed at $1575 this week. Buying ingots is speculation not investing. Dave
by DaveS
Sun Mar 03, 2013 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Huge Index Fund "Style Drift" (REITs No Longer Value-Tilted)
Replies: 22
Views: 3122

Re: Huge Index Fund "Style Drift" (REITs No Longer Value-Til

There is a thread on the issue of REIT valuations about once a week lately. I recall in 1999 REITs were selling at about 70% of the value of the underling real estate and about 15 times earnings. Now they are selling at 230% of their book value and 60 times earnings. The former valuations are consis...
by DaveS
Fri Mar 01, 2013 9:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Fake LinkIn Invitation
Replies: 1
Views: 592

Re: Fake LinkIn Invitation

I gave on linkedin when I retired. I think they are a bunch of crooks. Dave
by DaveS
Fri Mar 01, 2013 1:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 100% stock ETF portfolio?
Replies: 20
Views: 2430

Re: 100% stock ETF portfolio?

Actually if you read the earlier Swedroe Books or any of the Bernstein books, you will see that a 100% equity portfolio does not beat a portfolio including 10% to 20% bonds over all but the shortest periods i.e. occasional one year periods. The reason is that small amounts of bonds reduce volatility...
by DaveS
Tue Feb 26, 2013 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with 401k review
Replies: 21
Views: 1833

Re: Help with taxable and 401k review

I don't really understand your questions. You want tax efficient assets in taxable, tax inefficient assets in tax free. In order of tax efficiency worst to best: Taxable bonds, REIT, Small Value, Large Value, Large Blend, International emerging due to the foreign tax credit. So people who have large...
by DaveS
Tue Feb 26, 2013 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New investor (few Q's)
Replies: 8
Views: 978

Re: New investor (few Q's)

I have forgotten what minimum investment amounts are but I think your below them. Most people starting out go with a fund of funds, STAR, life strategy or target retirement. At your station in life any of those would be recommended. Dave
by DaveS
Tue Feb 26, 2013 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Slowly becoming my own Financial Advisor
Replies: 4
Views: 804

Re: Slowly becoming my own Financial Advisor

I think two accounts is fairly common. For example some fear an account being hacked. You do want to keep in mind that it's one portfolio. Dave
by DaveS
Sat Feb 23, 2013 5:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Death of value premium premature
Replies: 9
Views: 1132

Re: Death of value premium premature

I suppose it's natural for value stocks to be more volatile. Otherwise one would not need to expect a premium for investing in them. Dave
by DaveS
Sat Feb 23, 2013 4:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New investor seeks asset alloc and debt repayment advice
Replies: 4
Views: 789

Re: New investor seeks asset alloc and debt repayment advice

Costs matter. Often they are the only thing you can control. The extra 1% your paying by leaving your money in the old 401 adds up to a lot over 30 years, that is the amount of the 1% times 30, plus compounding. I would roll that 401 into an IRA at Vanguard and put it in index funds or target retire...
by DaveS
Wed Feb 20, 2013 9:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How does a job change affect a mortgage application?
Replies: 10
Views: 1758

Re: How does a job change affect a mortgage application?

You will still be able to get a mortgage. Some mortgage guidelines used to require 12 months on the job. But if memory serves those requirements were for people who had credit problems you don't have. People often get new jobs where they have to move and buy new houses. You can more reliably find ou...
by DaveS
Tue Feb 19, 2013 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: amateur seeks advice about funds in 401k
Replies: 4
Views: 1112

Re: amateur seeks advice about funds in 401k

I have seen a lot worse possibilities and costs than your 401. I note the international selections are really high cost. So your smart to want to start a taxable account with these and large blend funds. Both are tax efficient. I would make the large blend fund vanguard total stock market. It is ver...
by DaveS
Sun Feb 17, 2013 10:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Your feedback re: Alaska cruise
Replies: 22
Views: 2655

Re: Your feedback re: Alaska cruise

I am a former Alaska resident. I have taken the Alaska Marine Ferry many times. It's much less expensive and more informal compared to the high cost luxury market. Locals get on and off. It's much more of an Alaska experience. You wont meet anyone from Alaska on a cruse ship. The Ferry and the cruse...
by DaveS
Sun Feb 17, 2013 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For munis, bond fund or ladder
Replies: 116
Views: 14578

Re: For munis, bond fund or ladder

Larry: Thank you for a very informative series of posts. I set up a muni ladder during the 90's. But since I retired I am just letting it pay off and putting whatever I don't need into a national muni fund. I live in a no income tax state. Your right about not needing the CA bonds, but the tiny diff...
by DaveS
Fri Feb 15, 2013 4:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review - Husband left me in charge :)
Replies: 23
Views: 3810

Re: Portfolio Review - Husband left me in charge :)

Now I have one other thought. If your moderately aggressive, as you say you are, then you want to tilt a bit. You "tilt" by overemphasizing small and value stocks, and in the size of the bond component of your portfolio. The best books that explain this are the first two Larry Swedroe books, The Onl...
by DaveS
Fri Feb 15, 2013 4:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review - Husband left me in charge :)
Replies: 23
Views: 3810

Re: Portfolio Review - Husband left me in charge :)

The individual stocks - comprising all of your taxable accounts complicate things. Normally one would have two very tax efficient funds there, Total Stock Market and Total International. Then depending on the amount of space in tax free, less tax efficient asset classes such as taxable bonds, REIT o...
by DaveS
Thu Feb 14, 2013 12:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing Help
Replies: 8
Views: 756

Re: Investing Help for a 30 year old...

I agree with the previous poster. Two very tax efficient funds or etf's are total international and total stock market or as etf's VTI and VXUS. You would improve your tax efficiency by holding them in taxable, and if you wanted your stock bond ratio to remain the same have more bonds in tax free. J...
by DaveS
Thu Feb 14, 2013 12:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Tale of Two countries, Greece and Japan
Replies: 19
Views: 1715

Re: A Tale of Two countries, Greece and Japan

I just finished reading a fascinating article over at Bloomberg. South Korea has the same demographic problem as Japan, a rapidly aging population with a very low birthrate. The government is actively promoting immigration. It's rational is that the US has avoided the Japanese "lost decade" economy ...
by DaveS
Tue Feb 12, 2013 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: asset allocation
Replies: 4
Views: 408

Re: asset allocation

Even though I am a long term poster on Vanguard issues, I don't know what all the alphabet soup is. Maybe you should tell us your age, and name the funds by something other than, VOO,DOO. Dave
by DaveS
Tue Feb 12, 2013 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small-cap Value Sector Breakdown
Replies: 2
Views: 417

Re: Small-cap Value Sector Breakdown

40% in financials is a common misconception for VBR. For some reason Vanguard counts REITs as financials. So you have a normal 24% in financials and about 15% in REIT. If you go over to www.morningstar.com and compare their market weight breakdown you will see this is the case. Dave
by DaveS
Tue Feb 12, 2013 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: role of tiaa-cref traditional in portfolio
Replies: 16
Views: 2063

Re: role of tiaa-cref traditional in portfolio

Cref has some good index funds. A guaranteed 3% might sound good based on unique events since 2006 or so but I would just rather own the market plus at your age, about 40% IN BONDS. Go back a longer time and 3% stinks. Dave
by DaveS
Fri Feb 08, 2013 3:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Preferred Stock vs Common Stock
Replies: 7
Views: 1812

Re: Preferred Stock vs Common Stock

There is a preferred stock ETF. I cant remember if it's I shares or something else. I can't believe Apple would seriously issue preferred stock. Generally issuers are troubled companies that pay out a "preferred" dividend because they can't raise capital any other way. The stock usually has a call f...
by DaveS
Tue Feb 05, 2013 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lightening up on TIPs fund
Replies: 1
Views: 496

Re: Lightening up on TIPs fund

Who knows what the future holds. I would lighten up on US TIPS, but for a different reason. The last time Congress had a fight over the debt limit, they nearly forced the US treasury to default. That really scared me, because everyone thought there was no credit risk for treasuries because the gover...
by DaveS
Tue Feb 05, 2013 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much (%) would you have in any one fund?
Replies: 10
Views: 1379

Re: How much (%) would you have in any one fund?

For something like total stock market, a high percentage does not destroy diversification because the fund is really diversified. Wellesley tilts a bit to large value in its equity component, or at least it used to. I would not sell it just to get the percentage down, as the saying goes the enemy of...
by DaveS
Tue Feb 05, 2013 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversifying portfolio risk
Replies: 32
Views: 2722

Re: Diversifying portfolio risk

Just so folks know, the link opens at page 2 of the article. At the end of the text, you can click on a button to get to page 1. Larry I was interested to see the tilt to a sliced and diced portfolio tilting to small and value. I followed that advice when your first book came out and don't regret do...
by DaveS
Sat Feb 02, 2013 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: can the market move higher despite larger outflows?
Replies: 13
Views: 1923

Re: can the market move higher despite larger outflows?

Inflows, outflows, insider sentiment, going up or down on high volume, the league of the team that wins the super bowl, etc. are all examples of noise that a smart investor ignores. If you pay attention to this kind of thing your just going to be trading in and out and incurring costs. The market go...
by DaveS
Mon Jan 28, 2013 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Re: Emerging Markets Bond Fund
Replies: 10
Views: 1564

Re: Emerging Markets Bond Fund

In ETF's take a look at EMLC, and and ELD. You don't want this kind of debt for you whole bond allocation, but it's OK to dabble in it. Dave
by DaveS
Mon Jan 28, 2013 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: bond alternatives in a taxable account
Replies: 7
Views: 1553

Re: bond alternatives in a taxable account

Like the man said, you don't want your duration to be longer than the period till you need the money, thus the Vanguard limited term tax exempt is a good choice. If you want to hold your nose and pay some taxes Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade has about the same duration, but higher yield. You w...
by DaveS
Mon Jan 28, 2013 6:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with walk away decision? UPDATED
Replies: 10
Views: 2034

Re: Help with walk away decision?

I prefer BMW motorcycles. I paid of all debt before retiring. I think you have enough, but being debt free makes a difference. I don't know what all the alphabet soup is for your funds so I don't have any investment advice for you. Dave
by DaveS
Sat Jan 26, 2013 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Q's re Morningstar's Maturity Analyses of GNMA funds
Replies: 1
Views: 751

Re: Q's re Morningstar's Maturity Analyses of GNMA funds

I don't really know the answers to the exact questions you posed. But I do know that mortgage bonds are affected by refinancing. That is to say that your typical mortgage bond pays off faster depending on whether the people who got the mortgage proceeds refinance or sell their houses. This negative ...
by DaveS
Sat Jan 26, 2013 10:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Simple Portfolio Question [Asset Allocation]
Replies: 4
Views: 756

Re: Simple Portfolio Question [Asset Allocation]

I think the response that said you could take on more risk, but don't need to was very intelligent. That said, an alternative view would be If you don't need the money in your lifetime, your investing for your heirs. How old are they? Maybe you want to invest based on their age in bonds rather than ...
by DaveS
Sat Jan 26, 2013 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International Allocation
Replies: 13
Views: 2318

Re: International Allocation

If you want to know what I think you should do, it's option 2. That gives you a significant tilt to small which is a step up the risk scale which should reward you with a bigger long term return with greater volatility. Tilting to emerging markets is a sector bet. In other words that tilt does not r...
by DaveS
Sat Jan 26, 2013 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: my annual lessons learned
Replies: 5
Views: 1287

Re: my annual lessons learned

Yes. Even on this board you see posts from people wanting to change their allocation based on something they read in the paper that morning. It's amazing how hard it is to talk em out of it. Dave
P.S. "New Normal" always sounded like the saying, "it's different this time."
by DaveS
Fri Jan 25, 2013 8:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: BofA Harp 2.0 refi question
Replies: 2
Views: 376

Re: BofA Harp 2.0 refi question

You can call around, Stewart title etc. But that is a fairly good rate for title insurance. Dave
by DaveS
Thu Jan 24, 2013 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young Couple + .5 Investing Review
Replies: 4
Views: 882

Re: Young Couple + .5 Investing Review

I like the composition of the "aggressive fund." If you put an equal weight in taxable of US Total Stock Market and Total International, then Aggressive in the 401 and 2050 in the IRA and kept the REIT you have, you would be fairly close to the allocation you said you wanted. Note the Intermediate b...
by DaveS
Thu Jan 24, 2013 2:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young Couple + .5 Investing Review
Replies: 4
Views: 882

Re: Young Couple + .5 Investing Review

I don't have any specific advice for you because I don't know costs or the composition of the funds in the 401. But here is some general advice that answers some of your questions. The rule of thumb is not to have more than 5% of your assets in one stock. This is especially true if it's your company...
by DaveS
Thu Jan 24, 2013 1:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My annual list of predictions to track
Replies: 4
Views: 1375

Re: My annual list of predictions to track

That's gutsy. I never predict the stock market till I see whether a NFL or AFL team wins the Superbowl. :D
by DaveS
Thu Jan 24, 2013 1:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with Portfolio
Replies: 21
Views: 2298

Re: Help with Portfolio

The problem with the 401 is high costs. The only decently priced fund is the 500 index. I think there now is a cost analyzer somewhere on the Vanguard site. Run it at say a 8% return, with one fund costing .5 and another 1.3% say, over 30 years, and you will be staggered by how much appreciation you...
by DaveS
Wed Jan 23, 2013 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VWIUX or VWSUX question
Replies: 2
Views: 773

Re: VWIUX or VWSUX question

I did not look up the symbols. Are they intermediate index and short term index? Holding a combination of the two does lower duration and average maturity and the point one is on on the yield curve. But it's not like a ladder because with a ladder your assured of getting your principle back if you h...
by DaveS
Wed Jan 23, 2013 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Moving from total bond to short term invest grade
Replies: 33
Views: 3642

Re: Moving from total bond to short term invest grade

Regarding the first question. You do want to keep durations reasonably short. In other posts I usually use the rule of thumb around 5. Frankly if I just owned one bond fund total bond would be it. But adding short term investment grade to the usual Boglehead mix of total bond, and TIPS is not a bad ...
by DaveS
Tue Jan 22, 2013 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Suggestions for 401k Allocation
Replies: 3
Views: 1276

Re: Suggestions for 401k Allocation

All funds with an ER of 1% or more except the bond fund. Do you know how much that is going to cost you over 40+ years? There is an article in the wiki this site about how to talk to your HR department about getting some decent choices. Yours is the worse selection I have ever seen. Dave
by DaveS
Tue Jan 22, 2013 4:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VG high yield tax exempt vs. USAA VA bond fund
Replies: 13
Views: 1054

Re: VG high yield tax exempt vs. USAA VA bond fund

I don't know a thing about the USAA fund. The Vanguard fund has a very good record. One drawback to the Vanguard fund is that about 12% of it's holdings are revenue bonds from toll roads, that kind of thing. Those kind of muni's are tax free but their income is counted as income for Alternative Mini...
by DaveS
Mon Jan 21, 2013 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question about TIPS placement in my portfolio
Replies: 2
Views: 731

Re: Question about TIPS placement in my portfolio

Given the fact that your tax free account is overcrowded, I don't buy your pessimism about muni bonds. There has not been a GO - General Obligation - muni bond default since Arkansas in the dust bowl era. The few defaults consist of revenue bonds for ill conceived projects, Las Vegas Monorail etc. a...
by DaveS
Mon Jan 21, 2013 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond fund for IRA?
Replies: 7
Views: 1008

Re: Bond fund for IRA?

Yes In. Term Investment Grade is a good substitute for Total Bond. It's like debating the difference between growth and value stocks. Each fund will behave slightly differently over periods of time. But they both play in high credit quality bond markets. Investment grade is concentrated in corporate...
by DaveS
Fri Jan 18, 2013 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Request for Plan Review [Help with Portfolio]
Replies: 3
Views: 505

Re: Request for Plan Review [Help with Portfolio]

I assume most of the target retirement funds are for years around the present. So I think you are in an OK position and most likely near your allocation. . I would not bother with the Roth conversion. I just figure that the time when your going to be drawing on the IRA's is fairly close and your tax...
by DaveS
Fri Jan 18, 2013 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement Investment Question
Replies: 6
Views: 868

Re: Retirement Investment Question

Whoa. I agree interest rates are low and returns on bonds pathetic. But the idea of holding bonds are to protect you from stock market declines. Not to hold for the yield Go to the WIKI this site and read about bond duration. When interest rates, now at historic lows, rise which they will do at some...
by DaveS
Fri Jan 18, 2013 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETFs have a Birthday
Replies: 6
Views: 952

Re: ETFs have a Birthday

There is an interesting story in Jack Bogle's biography. The guy who started SPY first took his idea to Vanguard and explained it to Bogle. He got shown the door with Bogle telling him that index funds were for investing, not trading. What a lost opportunity. He went to State Street next. I don't tr...
by DaveS
Fri Jan 18, 2013 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review .... again
Replies: 11
Views: 1017

Re: Portfolio Review .... again

Yup I agree with the previous post. Your fine and your throwing a lot of money into tax sheltered accounts. There is nothing that beats tax free compounding. I am amazed how much my IRA has grown since I started it in the 80's. You have enough for an emergency fund. Regarding TIPS and REIT. I think ...