Search found 1303 matches

by DaveS
Thu Nov 29, 2012 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Potential windfall in 2013. Anything to prepare for now?
Replies: 7
Views: 996

Re: Potential windfall in 2013. Anything to prepare for now?

I would not do anything that would cause me to have more capital gains in 13 and if I had something that could be sold at a long term loss I would hold it till next year so I could offset the gains with the losses. An interesting issue would be if your house is worth much less than you paid for it. ...
by DaveS
Thu Nov 29, 2012 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Big companies become too big to succeed
Replies: 35
Views: 3430

Re: Big companies become too big to succeed

I can see the theory of the study. A certain percent of companies will reach the point where they can't take advantage of economies of scale after they get big, or they buy other companies that they can't run. Peter Lynch called this "diworseification." But if you buy a total market fund you get the...
by DaveS
Wed Nov 28, 2012 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Newbie - 401k Question
Replies: 1
Views: 477

Re: Newbie - 401k Question

A target retirement is a fine place to start as long ans it's not expensive. An extra 1% a year adds up to quite a bit of money lost to costs over 35 years. If it's less I would look at a combination of Vanguard stock and bonds, but only to save costs. Dave
by DaveS
Sun Nov 25, 2012 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argentina's bond default
Replies: 7
Views: 973

Re: Argentina's bond default

I don't know if this is a subject that can be discussed under our rules. Argentina Defaulted a decade ago. That's a risk you take if your going to buy debt in Frontier markets. It's less likely in Emerging or Developed markets. It's settlements with bond holders provided for payment of a discounted ...
by DaveS
Thu Nov 22, 2012 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio help for new investor
Replies: 7
Views: 440

Re: Portfolio help for new investor

At your income level amounts that can be in in tax free are always less than one can invest. If you really have your heart set on having Wellington in tax free then you could substitute Vanguard Intermediate Term Tax Free Municipal Bond Fund for your bonds without changing your stock/bond ratio. Fra...
by DaveS
Wed Nov 21, 2012 11:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: managing my windfall
Replies: 12
Views: 2913

Re: managing my windfall

I actually meant something different. 1) You don't really make money on an emergency fund. You just want something that will be there if you need it. Even the short term investment grade fund is not going to go up in smoke in an economic disaster. So it's either money market or short term bonds. The...
by DaveS
Wed Nov 21, 2012 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice Needed on Loan - Now, Later or Not At All?
Replies: 2
Views: 411

Re: Advice Needed on Loan - Now, Later or Not At All?

Regarding the refinancing with penn fed. I would wait the six months and do it all at once. The penn fed loan may have a prepayment penalty which would make a further refi expensive. Then you are looking at a more expensive second. I don't think Bogleheads disfavor being a landlord. They disfavor sp...
by DaveS
Wed Nov 21, 2012 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: interview with indexuniverse
Replies: 6
Views: 653

Re: interview with indexuniverse

I liked the optimism. And I loved the last couple of paragraphs about the rich snobs thinking they are getting something out of being overcharged by Goldman. Since they are really rich, I suppose they can afford to lose more money than we can. Dave
by DaveS
Wed Nov 21, 2012 12:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would make you break the philosophy "stay the course"
Replies: 25
Views: 2345

Re: What would make you break the philosophy "stay the cours

I don't trade based on news reports, or my perception of the economy growing or going into recession. In the last 5 years I have reduced the average duration of the bonds I hold, and I substituted investment grade for the small allocation I had in high yield, but my allocation to bonds has not chang...
by DaveS
Tue Nov 20, 2012 5:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: managing my windfall
Replies: 12
Views: 2913

Re: managing my windfall

I am not sure what some of your abbreviations stand for. If your just saving for a down payment on a house you need a short term bond fund in addition to your emergency fund. The Vanguard Short term Investment Grade fund would fit the bill. If it was my money I would fully fund a IRA with a target r...
by DaveS
Tue Nov 20, 2012 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for 29yr Old
Replies: 2
Views: 332

Re: Advice for 29yr Old

Good conventional advice is to avoid individual stocks unless your going to own a lot of them - 20 or more. You have experienced the reason with the performance of Apple in the last year - down 20%. Frankly unless your going to become an amateur analyst, just avoid individual stocks completely. Its ...
by DaveS
Tue Nov 20, 2012 6:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Adding small cap to balance large Cap weighted portfolio
Replies: 15
Views: 1606

Re: Adding small cap to balance large Cap weighted portfolio

If your marginal tax rate is high you do get something from tax managed funds. So I am not saying no. Try a graph of VB and VBR, Vanguard small blend and small value etf. And compare them with the tax managed fund. You can find such graphs at Yahoo finance. And see if there is much difference. The t...
by DaveS
Sun Nov 18, 2012 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Scott Burns: 'Target-date' funds glide the wrong way
Replies: 35
Views: 5990

Re: Scott Burns: 'Target-date' funds glide the wrong way

Scott Burns... If you don't follow the 'age in bonds' glide path approach, do you still consider yourself a Boglehead? Maybe it's because I am home with a bad cold, but I find this question highly irritating. It projects an attitude that you have to be like everyone else or your excluded. A more im...
by DaveS
Sun Nov 18, 2012 1:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: refinance advice
Replies: 12
Views: 1338

Re: refinance advice

I would probably refi the house and pay off the rental. That is just because you can get a better home loan than a commercial mortgage. Last time I looked you can get 10 year mortgages at www.farmbureaubank.com You don't have to be a member of the Farm Bureau and the costs are low and they often wai...
by DaveS
Sun Nov 18, 2012 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review
Replies: 5
Views: 627

Re: Portfolio Review

The way you describe things you are not tax efficient. In order of tax efficiency worst to best; Taxable bonds, REIT, Small Value, Large Value, Large blend, International/Emerging (due to the foreign tax credit). So at a minimum you want the international in a taxable account. I don't have a problem...
by DaveS
Sun Nov 18, 2012 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Total market fund and diversification question
Replies: 12
Views: 1836

Re: Vanguard Total market fund and diversification question

The answer turns on your age and status in life. A young person in the accumulation phase should do some tilting to small value. Say you double the amount of small you hold relative to the market. Because small value is more volatile than large caps someone in or nearing retirement might not want to...
by DaveS
Thu Nov 15, 2012 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My thoughts on the [current market] in a nutshell ...
Replies: 42
Views: 4744

Re: My thoughts on the Fiscal Cliff in a nutshell ... [Image

Returning to the subject. Your supposed to have an allocation you can sleep with on good news days and bad news days so you can stay the course. In the 1987 crash I did not understand this, and sold quite a bit of stock, the market came back. In the 2008-2009 crash I felt comfortable with my allocat...
by DaveS
Tue Nov 13, 2012 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is holding LT Treasury fund shares dangerous?
Replies: 15
Views: 2158

Re: Why is holding LT Treasury fund shares dangerous?

I I agree with livesoft. I remember seeing a chart of Mr. Ferri on his website of the period of 1940- 1960's or so of INCREASING interest rates. It should 100% long term bonds returns INCREASED during that period from 0 to 2% or so. To the OP: __________ I was alive during the 50's and 60's interes...
by DaveS
Tue Nov 13, 2012 10:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fiscal Cliff: Anyone taking defensive measures?
Replies: 63
Views: 5447

Re: Fiscal Cliff: Anyone taking defensive measures?

I don't think you should change your allocation based on speculation. I would have made some changes if the election turned out differently, but not before. Further if we go over the cliff the affects will not be long term. Maybe we have a mild recession in 2013 due to a reduction in government spen...
by DaveS
Tue Nov 13, 2012 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 'noise' to avoid: A lesson from the muni non-crisis.
Replies: 12
Views: 1420

Re: The 'noise' to avoid: A lesson from the muni non-crisis.

Just one more piece of info on the Las Vegas Monorail bankruptcy. One of the largest creditors in that case is the bond insurer who is going to have to pay the bondholders if the monorail does not. Does that suggest to you that you should not panic about defaults. I don't like people who yell fire i...
by DaveS
Mon Nov 12, 2012 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 'noise' to avoid: A lesson from the muni non-crisis.
Replies: 12
Views: 1420

Re: The 'noise' to avoid: A lesson from the muni non-crisis.

The municipal default rate is still infinitesimally small. Last time I looked it was .003% and most of those were revenue bonds from foolish projects like the Las Vegas Monorail which is currently in a Chapter 11. It did not qualify for a chapter 9 or municipal bankruptcy. Revenue bonds are easy to ...
by DaveS
Mon Nov 12, 2012 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Municipal Bond Funds in Taxable Account
Replies: 6
Views: 1206

Re: Municipal Bond Funds in Taxable Account

Do a search on reaching for yield. I don't know a thing about the Poineer fund but what you say sounds awful.
by DaveS
Mon Nov 12, 2012 5:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to profit from legalization in WA and CO?
Replies: 24
Views: 2515

Re: How to profit from legalization in WA and CO?

Profit. What have you been smoking?
by DaveS
Sat Nov 10, 2012 6:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advise on investment property
Replies: 8
Views: 885

Re: Advise on investment property

The most common way to get into owning a home that eventually gets rented out is to buy it and move in. Then at some later date move out to another home you purchase and rent the previous one out. That way you fit into all the "owner occupied" programs of lenders, and insurers. In industry parlance ...
by DaveS
Sun Nov 04, 2012 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High Yield Corp Fund (VWEEHX)
Replies: 18
Views: 1359

Re: High Yield Corp Fund (VWEEHX)

I occasionally have had a small amount of bond money in high yield over the last 30 years. I second what Nisprius said to you. Higher yielding bonds are like low grade stocks in the way they perform, occasionally beating investment grade bonds, but going down big time when stocks crash. Do a graph f...
by DaveS
Sat Nov 03, 2012 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review and new 401K advice
Replies: 15
Views: 1889

Re: Portfolio Review and new 401K advice

Yikes. The costs of the funds in the 401 are ridiculous. I doubt you can get much advice from people here about them. They are so expensive we would never consider them. I would just get the least expensive which looks like a large blend fund from around the world. Alternatively use the 401 for your...
by DaveS
Sat Oct 27, 2012 2:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows 8: Are you upgrading?
Replies: 67
Views: 5935

Re: Windows 8: Are you upgrading?

Epsilon Delta wrote:8 is an even number. Historically, even numbered MS operating systems have been worse than average.
Yes and my astrologer said 8 came out at a bad time. Dave
by DaveS
Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking portfolio advice
Replies: 10
Views: 768

Re: Seeking portfolio advice

Regarding the REIT. By market cap REIT is just less than 2% of the stock market, so you have some in taxable already. Frankly I think you would get better diversification from Small Value rather then the additional REIT in taxable or you could substitute more tax free bonds for the taxable bonds, an...
by DaveS
Wed Oct 24, 2012 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Small Cap Value not risky enough for you? Try this:
Replies: 30
Views: 3892

Re: 100% Small Cap Value not risky enough for you? Try this:

I am a Bankruptcy lawyer. I make good money off of people who take on too much leverage. Dave
by DaveS
Thu Oct 18, 2012 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review
Replies: 5
Views: 596

Re: Portfolio Review

I start my thinking with market cap. and then tilt. In other words market capitalization investing is default, and I depart from that based on a reason I can articulate. What is market capitalization? The US is 45% of the worlds equity markets, the rest 55%. Emerging markets are about a quarter of e...
by DaveS
Wed Oct 17, 2012 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Newbie rebuilding after Chap 7 needs advice
Replies: 10
Views: 813

Re: Newbie rebuilding after Chap 7 needs advice

It looks like there isn't much money left over after you fund the Roth. If there was take a look at a SIMPLE IRA. That is most likely what you had in mind when you said SEP. You can run that through the search function at www.irs.gov and see. Your credit should be close to restored so you could star...
by DaveS
Wed Oct 17, 2012 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will You Use the New Vanguard Short-Term TIPS Index Fund?
Replies: 27
Views: 5859

Re: Will You Use the New Vanguard Short-Term TIPS Index Fund

Well It's nice to know you wont do worse than inflation. I suppose you could use it for something like an emergency fund, but I would prefer I bonds.
by DaveS
Tue Oct 16, 2012 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where can I find small-cap market- weight in Total Stock
Replies: 9
Views: 915

Re: Where can I find small-cap market- weight in Total Stock

Part of the problem is that people define the lines between small cap., mid cap, and large cap differently. If you go over to Morningstar and put the initials for a fund, they give you a breakdown using their limits. I just use a rule of thumb, the market by capitalization is 70% large, 20% percent ...
by DaveS
Fri Oct 12, 2012 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Newly Retired need some portfolio advice
Replies: 5
Views: 1163

Re: Newly Retired need some portfolio advice

Like you I am recently retired. I do occasionally work part time on projects that come my way in between traveling. The first thing I noticed about your proposed allocation is the international/emerging component. By market cap. the US is 45%, rest of the world 55%. So your proposing a significant u...
by DaveS
Wed Sep 26, 2012 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Overlap of VG Total Bond Market and Pimco Total Return
Replies: 10
Views: 930

Re: Overlap of VG Total Bond Market and Pimco Total Return

Of course two intermediate bond funds that invest in the broad market are going to have considerable overlap. To me with bond funds only yielding about 3% costs are more important than overlap. Last time I looked the PIMCO fund was about 3 times as expensive as the Vanguard. I realize different reti...
by DaveS
Sat Sep 22, 2012 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Help for New Boglehead
Replies: 17
Views: 1235

Re: Portfolio Help for New Boglehead

So many questions so little time.... First I agree that paying down debt is like having bonds, but over longer periods having some bonds is tends to boost returns over a 100% equity portfolio. So I am thinking 10% of your assets in a total bond fund in tax free. I agree there is not that much differ...
by DaveS
Sat Sep 22, 2012 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: portfolio advice
Replies: 6
Views: 803

Re: portfolio advice

The amount of I bonds that can be bought is limited. I think it's down to 5k per person per year. So you might as well max that out before you go to the mini fund. I thought the placement for everything you mentioned was fine. For the emergency fund take a look at short term investment grade. I am t...
by DaveS
Sun Sep 09, 2012 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best Investing Books for a Recent College Grad
Replies: 25
Views: 2754

Re: Best Investing Books for a Recent College Grad

You start with the Random Walk Down Wall Street. Then there are lot's of choices. I like the early books by Larry Swedroe they all start with the words "the only guide..." Rick Ferri's books are all worthy of mention, as are those by William Bernstein especially the Four Pillars of Investing and the...
by DaveS
Sat Sep 08, 2012 2:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: intermediate bonds-duration
Replies: 2
Views: 547

Re: intermediate bonds-duration

Of the bunch I recommend the investment grade fund, The problem with GNMA is the affects on duration from refinancing. This is the negative convexity someone mentioned. When rates go down people refinance which pays the bond off shortening the duration. When rates go up people don't refinance which ...
by DaveS
Thu Sep 06, 2012 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: fiscal cliff [Help with Portfolio]
Replies: 18
Views: 2497

Re: fiscal cliff [Help with Portfolio]

Yours is an interesting question. The first thing you need to accept is that markets have priced in all information. This is a important part of modern portfolio theory. The fiscal cliff is not a secret. All my life there has been some fearful economic thing out there. For example in the 70's people...
by DaveS
Thu Aug 23, 2012 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Check Up
Replies: 3
Views: 497

Re: Portfolio Check Up

Looks fine. You want tax inefficient assets in tax free Those are assets that throw off a lot of taxable income like bonds. In my case that eventually chased the stocks out of my tax free. Dave
by DaveS
Wed Aug 22, 2012 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need Advice: Long Term Bond holdings........
Replies: 2
Views: 625

Re: Need Advice: Long Term Bond holdings........

When interest rates eventually rise the NAV will fall by their duration for each 1% increase in rates. Both the funds have a duration in the area of 6.5. That used to be considered intermediate term. They have shortened their duration since you bought them. I don't fathom your reason for selling. If...
by DaveS
Mon Aug 13, 2012 7:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to Put Short Term Investment?
Replies: 2
Views: 618

Re: Where to Put Short Term Investment?

The conventional advice for savings to be used 3-4 years out is a bond fund with a duration about the same as the savings period or a CD. Take a look at Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade or Limited Term Tax exempt. The reason this advice is given is that you don't want to save and own something t...
by DaveS
Sun Aug 12, 2012 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How should I allocate these additional funds?
Replies: 9
Views: 1026

Re: How should I allocate these additional funds?

It's is not clear to me whether you have sufficient income in retirement. Assuming you do, Florida is one of the states with no individual income tax. So you could just have your nominal bonds in the Vanguard Intermediate Tax Free Fund. You can keep the same inflation protected to nominal bond ratio...
by DaveS
Wed Aug 08, 2012 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring very soon - newbie has lots of questions!
Replies: 6
Views: 1109

Re: Retiring very soon - newbie has lots of questions!

I think your idea of going 50/50 is fine. I saw some tax placement issues. Sometimes costs can dictate unusual placements. For example, in the "his 401k" the cost savings of holding the 500 index fund is more than 1% a year than most alternatives. That 1% multiplied over say, a 20 year retirement co...
by DaveS
Wed Aug 01, 2012 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How am I doing? What could I do better?
Replies: 5
Views: 1101

Re: How am I doing? What could I do better?

The problem with substantial funds in Money Market is you earn less than inflation. You may not see a decline in the statements, but 7 years from now a buck will not buy as much. With interest rates at historic lows and the most likely to go up at some unknown point in the future, you don't want any...
by DaveS
Mon Jul 30, 2012 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Refinance Help
Replies: 2
Views: 599

Re: Refinance Help

To me the lower interest rate is all the reason you need to re-fi. I did not bother to do the math, but if you send in an extra $40 with each of the new payments, you should shorten the term to less than the 28 years left on your current loan. Dave
by DaveS
Sun Jul 29, 2012 9:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage Transferred to Fannie Mae?
Replies: 9
Views: 7316

Re: Mortgage Transferred to Fannie Mae?

As interest rates change or holders change perceptions about what they want to hold, mortgages get transferred. In the 80's some people would have their loans transfer 3 times a year. It has no reflection on you. Does not affect your credit, and your payments ain't going to change a bit. Dave
by DaveS
Fri Jul 27, 2012 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: talk me out of buying an individual stock (Facebook)
Replies: 112
Views: 17258

Re: talk me out of buying an individual stock (Facebook)

Go ahead and buy it. It sounds like you need to learn a lesson the hard way. Then for the rest of your life you will be a smarter investor. I agree that when things are hyped like Facebook it's hard to ignore the talking heads, but you will see when you get older the more hype you hear, the bigger t...
by DaveS
Wed Jul 25, 2012 8:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need advice: aging relative with severe debt
Replies: 18
Views: 3663

Re: Need advice: aging relative with severe debt

This is a very common cause of Bankruptcy - i.e. difficulty transitioning into retirement. It looks like he would lose nothing except the debt. His social security cant be touched in bankruptcy, and all states have some form of vehicle exemption allowing him to keep the car. The only help I would of...