Search found 302 matches

by MarkRoulo
Thu Jan 21, 2021 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value according to Paul Merriman has outperformed 100% of 20 year historical periods, what's the catch?
Replies: 28
Views: 1840

Re: Small Cap Value according to Paul Merriman has outperformed 100% of 20 year historical periods, what's the catch?

I know that you will not like this, but I'm really curious to see counter-arguments to the claim that SCV outperforms S&P500 historically . Here is the chart: https://serving.photos.photobox.com/43494901f269b8a8c1af0c77b060ae1c920d7249e9178afb013e5c035ab429a1e2bde23e.jpg Can someone please show...
by MarkRoulo
Thu Jan 21, 2021 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value according to Paul Merriman has outperformed 100% of 20 year historical periods, what's the catch?
Replies: 28
Views: 1840

Re: Small Cap Value according to Paul Merriman has outperformed 100% of 20 year historical periods, what's the catch?

QuestioningWanderer wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 2:42 pm I know that you will not like this, but I'm really curious to see counter-arguments to the claim that SCV outperforms S&P500 historically.
I found this post interesting:

viewtopic.php?p=5113232#p5113232
by MarkRoulo
Thu Jan 21, 2021 3:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Millionaire Parents: Do Your Kids Know You're Rich?
Replies: 194
Views: 9811

Re: Millionaire Parents: Do Your Kids Know You're Rich?

When I think of a millionaire as being rich, it is in the context of the early years of the 20th century. One dollar in 1900 is worth about 31 today. A dollar in 1920 would be 13 today. Thus, the equivalent of a millionaire then would be $13,000,000 to $30,000,000 today. I would consider the 1900 f...
by MarkRoulo
Thu Jan 21, 2021 12:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Millionaire Parents: Do Your Kids Know You're Rich?
Replies: 194
Views: 9811

Re: Millionaire Parents: Do Your Kids Know You're Rich?

I realize many of you are "Millionaire Next Door" types, but do your children know you're wealthy? Do they know about any inheritance they may receive in the future? For life insurance, did you tell them the policy number but not the value? What conversations do you have with them about w...
by MarkRoulo
Wed Jan 20, 2021 9:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why isn't every indexer investing in small cap value index funds?
Replies: 193
Views: 15571

Re: Why isn't every indexer investing in small cap value index funds?

willthrill81 wrote: Historically, very high. SCV has outperformed large-caps in every 20 year period on record except one. This may be true with factor models which are designed to double returns (long/short), to ignore trading frictions which are massive in the illiquid SC space and to ignore trad...
by MarkRoulo
Wed Jan 20, 2021 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone else pretty lax with their AA?
Replies: 49
Views: 3466

Re: Is anyone else pretty lax with their AA?

I hadn't checked for a while but I noticed my AA, which I had "designated" as 70/30, has drifted to 77/23. My initial thought was meh, whatever. Then I thought about it some more and thought as long as it stays above 80/20 I don't really care that much. If it drifts beyond that I will, an...
by MarkRoulo
Wed Jan 20, 2021 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone else pretty lax with their AA?
Replies: 49
Views: 3466

Re: Is anyone else pretty lax with their AA?

I hadn't checked for a while but I noticed my AA, which I had "designated" as 70/30, has drifted to 77/23. My initial thought was meh, whatever. Then I thought about it some more and thought as long as it stays above 80/20 I don't really care that much. If it drifts beyond that I will, an...
by MarkRoulo
Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:25 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Austria] Too good to be true CD rate
Replies: 17
Views: 1905

Re: [Austria] Too good to be true CD rate

... 10 years flies by very fast. Mind, Austria has issued a 100 year bond. ... A bit late, but *MEXICO* issued a 100 year bond in 2015. Denominated in Euros, so they can't devalue, they can only default. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-08/mexico-to-sell-longest-dated-euro-bond-with-...
by MarkRoulo
Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett on Asset Allocation
Replies: 58
Views: 5461

Re: Buffett on Asset Allocation

There has been past discussion of whether allocations that have been recommended by Warren Buffett are appropriate, such as the 90% in an S&P500 fund and 10% in t-bills that he has arranged for his wife to hold when he is gone. On a more basic level, Mr. Buffett apparently does not even believe...
by MarkRoulo
Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did anybody try Mr. Bogle's "new" idea for a fund that never changes
Replies: 20
Views: 2909

Re: Did anybody try Mr. Bogle's "new" idea for a fund that never changes

While working through John Bogle's book "Common Sense on Mutual Funds" I came upon a section in chapter 13 "On Taxes" where he describes an idea for a fund that invests in a set of stocks and then holds these forever, without making any changes or adjustments: Start with a fund ...
by MarkRoulo
Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: life insurance for funding cryonics
Replies: 63
Views: 2922

Re: life insurance for funding cryonics

The problem is the dual risk of insurance company and cryonics company failure or even rule change for the next 50-60 years. Not sure how to mitigate over that time frame. Insurance companies are regulated but even that half is not definite for half a century. Cryonics companies rely on goodwill wh...
by MarkRoulo
Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: life insurance for funding cryonics
Replies: 63
Views: 2922

Re: life insurance for funding cryonics

I would need $250,000 to be paid out to the cryonics company upon my death, and I would want coverage to be in place my entire life. I am currently 30 years old and in decent health. If anyone were to prove that this plan had merit (i.e., it actually worked), the cost would increase by several logs...
by MarkRoulo
Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: life insurance for funding cryonics
Replies: 63
Views: 2922

Re: life insurance for funding cryonics

Shouldn't the life insurance company be able to claw back the money plus interest if you get thawed out and your death is somehow reversed? The payment should be contingent on you being dead. No, the life insurance company won't be able to do that. You "died" using the legal definition at...
by MarkRoulo
Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: life insurance for funding cryonics
Replies: 63
Views: 2922

Re: life insurance for funding cryonics

You can get a 20-year term insurance, and by the time you're in your 50s, you should have enough assets to cover that. Cryonics is actually a FASCINATING investing topic. Have you thought about how to invest if you were to die and revived 100+ years later? Theoretically, you could be the richest ma...
by MarkRoulo
Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: life insurance for funding cryonics
Replies: 63
Views: 2922

Re: life insurance for funding cryonics

I am planning on signing up for cryonics, to have my body cryogenically preserved after death in the hopes of future revival. I don't really want to get into the merits of cryonics, this blog post is good if anyone is curious: https://waitbutwhy.com/2016/03/cryonics.html Most people fund this with ...
by MarkRoulo
Sun Jan 10, 2021 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lose $500k quickly
Replies: 22
Views: 4650

Re: Lose $500k quickly

I believe that one of the major tenet's on the Forum is to never have less then 25% in stock. Assume a person is 65 years of age. Spouse is 65 as well. No debt . Average health. SS/Pension will cover 50% of his and spouse anticipated retirement expenses. Person has 2 million in cash and short term ...
by MarkRoulo
Sun Dec 27, 2020 10:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 6 years to college degree?????
Replies: 139
Views: 8194

Re: 6 years to college degree?????

Have them apply to the service academies...they manage to graduate everyone, even engineering majors, in just 4 years. West Point claims a six year graduation rate of between 83% and 85% for cadets entering in 2009-2013. https://www.westpoint.edu/about/west-point-staff/g5/institutional-research/gra...
by MarkRoulo
Sun Dec 27, 2020 12:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Raising Kids in a FI Family
Replies: 53
Views: 4252

Re: Raising Kids in a FI Family

My wife and I both grew up in low income families. Not poverty level but as close as you can get. We both joined the military and after 20 years have done very well. Much better than our respective families. I attribute the drive and habits we both have towards financial independence directly to th...
by MarkRoulo
Sun Dec 27, 2020 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring at 50 - what does it mean - Investment advice?
Replies: 16
Views: 3364

Re: Retiring at 50 - what does it mean - Investment advice?

Like many others on this forum, I really find the posts and inputs from everyone very helpful. Thanks in advance. Some background about myself - Age - 45 - married with 2 kids (15 and 10) both go to private school - $60k/year school tuition total Income - $350K/year Assets (not including house): $1...
by MarkRoulo
Fri Dec 25, 2020 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldman Sachs is coming to the everyday people
Replies: 53
Views: 6998

Re: Goldman Sachs is coming to the everyday people

To be a little more specific: They're coming out with something called Marcus Invest. Basically a robo-advisor. https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2020/12/22/goldman-sachs-readies-digi-investment-offering/ $1K minimum, 0.15% fee - same as Vanguard's Digital Advisor. I think this will do very well and is ...
by MarkRoulo
Tue Dec 22, 2020 6:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 6 years to college degree?????
Replies: 139
Views: 8194

Re: 6 years to college degree?????

What's up with this business lately of 6 year graduation rates? If my kids go to school for 6 years I expect them to have an MA, not a BA. Seriously, if you haven't been paying attention, many colleges now publish a 6 year graduation rate, not a 4 year graduation rate. I've heard a few explanations...
by MarkRoulo
Tue Dec 22, 2020 2:52 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Using Acronyms
Replies: 36
Views: 1282

Re: Am I the only non-fan of FOOUA?

An unusual post for me and I hope it does not sound like a rant as it is not that serious but do any other Bogleheads get frustrated by FOOUA ? I feel like I can't be the only Boglehead that logs on each day and finds that for every ten minutes reading through posts they spend 10-15% of their time ...
by MarkRoulo
Tue Dec 22, 2020 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How could you "lock-in" low interest rates for the future?
Replies: 16
Views: 1710

Re: How could you "lock-in" low interest rates for the future?

The OP is trying to hedge. i.e. be neutral. If he loses money on the futures contract than he will be happy that he is getting a bargain on his home equity. If he wins big with the future then he can use the cash - less taxes - to pay points or reduce the principle of the mortgage. Winning big with...
by MarkRoulo
Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How could you "lock-in" low interest rates for the future?
Replies: 16
Views: 1710

Re: How could you "lock-in" low interest rates for the future?

Borrowing rates are pretty low right now. If someone wanted to "lock-in" current rates to use in 2-3 years, how would they do it? Let's say there are two use cases: a mortgage for a future house or a margin loan to invest. At the moment this is a purely theoretical exercise, I'm just curi...
by MarkRoulo
Sun Dec 20, 2020 5:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone retire pre 55 without any pensions?
Replies: 101
Views: 13646

Re: Anyone retire pre 55 without any pensions?

We have $3.8m total assets No debt and house paid off We are looking for $130k annual withdrawal that would include about $22k in healthcare in that number. We are certainly considering a part time job that would offer healthcare as that would be a big help. NO pensions or healthcare for over a dec...
by MarkRoulo
Fri Dec 18, 2020 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we even need a fund to track the market?
Replies: 105
Views: 6194

Re: Why do we even need a fund to track the market?

JoeRetire wrote: Fri Dec 18, 2020 5:00 pm
TNWoods wrote: Fri Dec 18, 2020 1:41 pm This would have been a good post in 104 days.
I'll bite - 104 days?
I can imagine that the filling out the tax forms on 5000+ stock positions might be tedious.
by MarkRoulo
Thu Dec 17, 2020 9:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Parents choosing college options for their kids based on affordability
Replies: 60
Views: 3053

Re: Parents choosing college options for their kids based on affordability

Whenever I hear about college selection, it sounds like teenagers get to choose whatever colleges they want to apply to and then the parents have to figure out how to pay for that school. When I was applying to college, my mom gave me two choices based on what my family could afford. I picked one a...
by MarkRoulo
Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Shopping for college
Replies: 147
Views: 10453

Re: Shopping for college

One can always consider transferring. I also was told that there is some program in CA that lets one more direct acceptance into a UC if one goes via community college. Whats the saying, better to be a big fish at a smaller school .... ... The California community colleges are well aligned with bot...
by MarkRoulo
Tue Dec 15, 2020 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what is an ETF that tracks NYSE stocks?
Replies: 7
Views: 508

Re: what is an ETF that tracks NYSE stocks?

I was doing some research and find that NASDAQ stocks are way over-priced as compared to NYSE stocks. I would like to re-balance my positions especially the mega-tech company stock position I'm holding into a better set of assets. Questions: 1. What is an ETF that tracks the NYSE stocks? 2. How is ...
by MarkRoulo
Tue Dec 15, 2020 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what is an ETF that tracks NYSE stocks?
Replies: 7
Views: 508

Re: what is an ETF that tracks NYSE stocks?

I was doing some research and find that NASDAQ stocks are way over-priced as compared to NYSE stocks. I would like to re-balance my positions especially the mega-tech company stock position I'm holding into a better set of assets. Questions: 1. What is an ETF that tracks the NYSE stocks? 2. How is ...
by MarkRoulo
Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Psychology of Money - A Blog Post
Replies: 164
Views: 19545

Re: "The Psychology of Money" by Morgan Housel

money's biggest benefit is to give you the freedom to do what you want, with people you like, for as long as you want. I disagree. Earning, generating and saving money have nothing to do with freedom. To earn, generate and save money requires lots of discipline, hardwork, and self-sacrifice. Nobody...
by MarkRoulo
Thu Dec 10, 2020 9:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Talk me out of buying a $1m condo in San Francisco in December 2020
Replies: 88
Views: 8093

Re: Talk me out of buying a $1m condo in San Francisco in December 2020

Just out of curiosity, I looked on Zillow to see what is for sale in SF. There are 32 condos for sale under 500k and like 85 more under 700k. What is wrong with buying one of those? I did not look at all the Zillow units under $500K in San Francisco, but I looked at a few of the offerings. A few (?...
by MarkRoulo
Wed Dec 09, 2020 1:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Talk me out of buying a $1m condo in San Francisco in December 2020
Replies: 88
Views: 8093

Re: Talk me out of buying a $1m condo in San Francisco in December 2020

I never said Bogleheads were a monolith. Simply that the average tone of the responses to this thread is way off the usual average tone of responses in threads of that nature. You're right, maybe the cautious folks will come later, but that's not usually how it happens :) For reference, we are talk...
by MarkRoulo
Wed Dec 09, 2020 12:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Talk me out of buying a $1m condo in San Francisco in December 2020
Replies: 88
Views: 8093

Re: Talk me out of buying a $1m condo in San Francisco in December 2020

This post amazes me. This forum is normally extremely conservative when it comes to those "can I afford a home" questions. I've seen some where the consensus what NO on buying a cheaper home than that with higher income (and 2 incomes, at that). And here, OP wants to buy a $1,000,000 cond...
by MarkRoulo
Wed Dec 09, 2020 11:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Talk me out of buying a $1m condo in San Francisco in December 2020
Replies: 88
Views: 8093

Re: Talk me out of buying a $1m condo in San Francisco in December 2020

Convincing me to not buy a condo (likely approaching $1m) in late 2020 in San Francisco sounds easy, right? But... the many of the usual assumptions are different for this kind of post: I actually like it here! Want to for at least 5-10+ more years. Have enough cash for at least 20% down on a condo...
by MarkRoulo
Wed Dec 09, 2020 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks with international earnings or international stocks?
Replies: 9
Views: 663

Re: US stocks with international earnings or international stocks?

What is the difference between the portion of US stocks with international earnings or Ex-US stocks. Should that portion of US based multinationals, possibly as a percentage based on foreign earnings ( roughly 40+% for the SP500) be considered international when assessing the portfolios internation...
by MarkRoulo
Tue Dec 08, 2020 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard explains why they expect international outperformance
Replies: 122
Views: 10784

Re: Vanguard explains why they expect international outperformance

The thing is that new great companies keep emerging and rising to the top in the US. This happens hardly at all in Europe and Japan where they have the same old companies. This dynamic nature of the US market is ignored by the valuation-based analysis. Companies that aren't there yet can't be price...
by MarkRoulo
Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: after 1 million, what makes a difference?
Replies: 162
Views: 17965

Re: after 1 million, what makes a difference?

I had an interesting conversation with a relative last night. Both of us are in similar situations -- neither has "won the game," both are still working (I'm 44, she's 51), both are still maxing our workplace plans, but we're in positions we consider comfortable and lucky, having each sav...
by MarkRoulo
Sun Nov 29, 2020 12:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Risky adventures after FI
Replies: 6
Views: 901

Re: Risky adventures after FI

Hi, Conventional wisdom is to take risks when young and there are no liabilities. Has anyone tried the opposite? I am planning to save and reach current financial goals by 45 and then try some new ventures. What are your thoughts on it? Thanks. By ventures do you mean "canoeing down the Nile&q...
by MarkRoulo
Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are lifecycle funds so equity-heavy?
Replies: 67
Views: 5035

Re: Why are lifecycle funds so equity-heavy?

Welcome to the forum :D The story I heard (but did not witness myself) is that the target retirement funds started out less aggressive than now. Then someone made theirs a little more aggressive and it performed better than the rest of the field. Each time one of the competitors made theirs a littl...
by MarkRoulo
Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What % of your Net Worth is Home Equity? What % is total value of RE relative to net worth?
Replies: 124
Views: 6954

Re: What % of your Net Worth is Home Equity? What % is total value of RE relative to net worth?

... I am surprised that there are not more people that are over 100% for question 2. Many people where I live are (i.e. they could not pay off their mortgage with all their assets). Question 2: 2. How much is the total value of your owned real estate as a % of your net worth? Example: if you own a ...
by MarkRoulo
Fri Nov 20, 2020 12:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is your percentage of debt to NW?
Replies: 139
Views: 7776

Re: What is your percentage of debt to NW?

To check my math on this If you owed someone a dollar and only had a dollar to your name, you are at 100% debt to net worth If instead you looked down and found a dollar on the ground, picked it up, and paid off your debt, you are now at 0% debt to net worth Yes? No :-) Net worth is assets - liabil...
by MarkRoulo
Fri Nov 20, 2020 12:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is your percentage of debt to NW?
Replies: 139
Views: 7776

Re: What is your percentage of debt to NW?

0% I am a renter with no student loans or credit card debt. The only reason I ask the question is because all markets are headed towards all time highs. The debt machine provides a lot of opportunity. My guess is there is probably an ideal percentage somewhere between 5-25%. Right now my ratio is 0...
by MarkRoulo
Thu Nov 19, 2020 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio don't own bonds/cash
Replies: 86
Views: 8010

Re: Ray Dalio don't own bonds/cash

This is rather Western/Euro centric view as the local cash Equivalents like Public Provident Fund for me is giving me 7.1% interest rate. It's interest rate is set every quarter based on the 10 Year India Government Bond Yield with additional spread of 0.25%. The only draw-back is the limited liqui...
by MarkRoulo
Thu Nov 19, 2020 12:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any way to exclude FAANG company from S&P index fund?
Replies: 20
Views: 2880

Re: Any way to exclude FAANG company from S&P index fund?

Hi everyone, Are there any funds that consist of an index fund that tracks S&P but without specific tech companies in there? For example, if someone worked at Microsoft, it might be prudent for them to avoid buying any extra Microsoft stock since they receive that as compensation, and their job...
by MarkRoulo
Wed Nov 18, 2020 11:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any way to exclude FAANG company from S&P index fund?
Replies: 20
Views: 2880

Re: Any way to exclude FAANG company from S&P index fund?

Hi everyone, Are there any funds that consist of an index fund that tracks S&P but without specific tech companies in there? For example, if someone worked at Microsoft, it might be prudent for them to avoid buying any extra Microsoft stock since they receive that as compensation, and their job...
by MarkRoulo
Wed Nov 18, 2020 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Check my math? Wellington 4%-real withdrawals fail every starting year from 1962-1969?
Replies: 26
Views: 3074

Re: Check my math? Wellington 4%-real withdrawals fail every starting year from 1962-1969?

My attention was caught by some backtests in a book mentioned in this thread , The book, by Josh Scandlen presents a number of backtests of IMHO ad hoc withdrawal strategies, generally putting a positive spin on a number of scenarios I see as problematical--but that's not what I want to discuss. Wh...
by MarkRoulo
Wed Nov 18, 2020 11:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Check my math? Wellington 4%-real withdrawals fail every starting year from 1962-1969?
Replies: 26
Views: 3074

Re: Check my math? Wellington 4%-real withdrawals fail every starting year from 1962-1969?

My attention was caught by some backtests in a book mentioned in this thread , The book, by Josh Scandlen presents a number of backtests of IMHO ad hoc withdrawal strategies, generally putting a positive spin on a number of scenarios I see as problematical--but that's not what I want to discuss. Wh...
by MarkRoulo
Tue Nov 17, 2020 12:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Starved & Searching for Yield???
Replies: 147
Views: 15219

Re: Starved & Searching for Yield???

The price of the stock (or stock fund/etf) drops by the amount of the dividend. You are netting nothing when you are paid a dividend. There's nothing else to know. There's no difference between receiving a dividend and selling the same amount of a non-dividend stock. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v...
by MarkRoulo
Tue Nov 10, 2020 11:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does a higher starting share price equate to better returns in the long run?
Replies: 10
Views: 1037

Re: Does a higher starting share price equate to better returns in the long run?

I was reading an article which says that if 2 funds are in the exact same asset class, the fund with the higher share price will have a better return on investment in the long run (even if the fund with the higher share price has a higher expense ratio). How is that mathematically possible? ... Why...