Search found 539 matches

by Stormbringer
Thu Aug 16, 2018 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity 401(k) millionaires hits record high
Replies: 44
Views: 3887

Re: Fidelity 401(k) millionaires hits record high

The number of 401(k) millionaires seems like a pretty worthless statistic unless it broken down by age. Comparing the balance of a 25yo with a 60yo makes no sense at all. Also, it would be far more interesting to a see total balances across all retirement accounts per household, as many people have ...
by Stormbringer
Thu Aug 16, 2018 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity 401(k) millionaires hits record high
Replies: 44
Views: 3887

Re: Fidelity 401(k) millionaires hits record high

sc9182 wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 4:06 pm
Or, take a cue from Mr. Romney - you might as well overshoot this target by 100x times over!
He's 71 now, so those RMDs should be kicking in now. :D
by Stormbringer
Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New York Times--Vanguard Warns of Worsening Odds for the Economy and Markets
Replies: 67
Views: 9569

Re: New York Times--Vanguard Warns of Worsening Odds for the Economy and Markets

What's actionable is to review your asset allocation and rebalance if things have gotten out of whack.
by Stormbringer
Sat Aug 11, 2018 6:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jamie Dimon: Higher rates are coming
Replies: 42
Views: 6555

Re: Jamie Dimon: Higher rates are coming

Kevin M wrote:
Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:12 pm
If you're really worried about inflation, consider TIPS and I Bonds.
Aren't I-Bonds currently returning negative real returns when you factor in taxes?
by Stormbringer
Sat Aug 11, 2018 6:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels
Replies: 96
Views: 9737

Re: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels

There is a contagion risk with Turkey. It has $466 billion in foreign debt (about 80% dollars, 20% euros) vs about $850 billion GDP. With the Lira falling precipitously, this makes it really difficult to to service those loans. European banks are particularly exposed. As we all know, the key to good...
by Stormbringer
Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HBO Hard Knocks Clip - Compound Interest Clip
Replies: 10
Views: 1305

Re: HBO Hard Knocks Clip - Compound Interest Clip

What's sad is that a majority of these guys are going to be broke within a few years of retiring from the sport.
by Stormbringer
Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?
Replies: 64
Views: 7482

Re: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?

The S&P 500 hit an all-time high of 1,552 in March, 2000. It hit a new all-time high of 1,589 in April, 2013. Nasdaq took even longer.

So we've already had a lost decade (plus 3 years). I think people did fine.
by Stormbringer
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Prescription Price Shopping?
Replies: 37
Views: 2259

Re: Prescription Price Shopping?

I'm taking a somewhat pricey medication and my insurance covered a huge chunk (at least compared to what I see online) but I'm wondering if the price would vary much between CVS, Walgreen, Rite Aid, etc.? I take blood pressure pills. Walgreens charges $90 for 30 generic pills. Costco is $13 for 90 ...
by Stormbringer
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice needed on final house negotiations
Replies: 35
Views: 2022

Re: Advice needed on final house negotiations

Personally, I would seek a second appraisal from a company that is acceptable to the lender. You are correct that they are in a pickle if it comes back low as well.
by Stormbringer
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Absolute vs percentage saving
Replies: 21
Views: 2300

Re: Absolute vs percentage saving

Most of my internet research and posts on this forum suggest a percentage of income based savings rate. Although there is no consensus, 15-20% of gross income at a minimum seems to be the recommendation on the internet. I think there is a better way. The first thing I would do is create a retiremen...
by Stormbringer
Wed Aug 08, 2018 4:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Will you pay for your kids' college/graduate education?
Replies: 366
Views: 14180

Re: Will you pay for your kids' college/graduate education?

Yes. It wasn't her fault that we make too much for her to qualify for financial aid, which is mostly need-based. She just graduated in June, debt-free. It was pretty easy -- we put about $3K a year into a 529 plan for her, and encouraged her to attend a nearby state university. The total bill was le...
by Stormbringer
Wed Aug 08, 2018 2:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Landlord advice needed with section 8
Replies: 38
Views: 3546

Re: Landlord advice needed with section 8

I have had lots of section 8 tenants over the years. Generally speaking, my policy is that I charge market rents ... period. If the housing authority won't approve it, the tenant needs to find somewhere else to live. Sometimes they will pay, sometimes they will not. Also, there are different program...
by Stormbringer
Wed Aug 08, 2018 1:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IRS Guidance (prelim) on QBI deduction
Replies: 9
Views: 874

Re: IRS Guidance (prelim) on QBI deduction

It looks like the IRS is planning to adopt a very narrow and favorable definition of "reputation or skill": Thus, proposed §1.199A-5(b)(2)(xiv) limits the meaning of the “reputation or skill” clause to fact patterns in which the individual or RPE is engaged in the trade or business of: (1) receiving...
by Stormbringer
Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jamie Dimon: Higher rates are coming
Replies: 42
Views: 6555

Re: Jamie Dimon: Higher rates are coming

This sort of reminds me of 2009, when Warren Buffett warned that inflation was coming due to all the stimulus. Even for the brightest minds, these things can be difficult to predict. What are us mere mortals to do?
by Stormbringer
Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone
Replies: 217
Views: 12749

Re: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone

I've never been a big fan of this rule of thumb for several reasons: It doesn't account for pensions (and social security) and these are not easy to put a value on. It doesn't account for how well-funded your retirement account is. If you've "won the game" (Berstein) you can afford less risk in the ...
by Stormbringer
Fri Aug 03, 2018 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to calculate Real Estate in your Asset Allocation
Replies: 20
Views: 2111

Re: How to calculate Real Estate in your Asset Allocation

I don't consider it all. If I did, I would lump it with equities not bonds because of the variability in the income stream.
by Stormbringer
Fri Aug 03, 2018 3:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuity vs investment
Replies: 40
Views: 2500

Re: Annuity vs investment

It's worth listening to Robert Merton on "The New Retirement" podcast. https://www.newretirement.com/retirement/podcast-episode-11-bob-merton-fixing-retirement/ Thanks for that, I found it to be very interesting and confirms some of the thoughts I've had about focusing on retirement wealth rather t...
by Stormbringer
Thu Aug 02, 2018 8:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: First Home, quadplex???
Replies: 15
Views: 1435

Re: First Home, quadplex???

A four-unit property qualifies for really nice mortgage terms if you are willing to live there for a year. If it is your intent to become a landlord, you can buy up to ten of them, one per year and get 30-year fixed Fannie Mae financing on them all with a minimal down-payment.
by Stormbringer
Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuity vs investment
Replies: 40
Views: 2500

Re: Annuity vs investment

I don't really get why anyone would buy an annuity that isn't inflation adjusted. Say we go through a stretch like the 1970's -- your income stream would lose a huge amount of purchasing power and you would be too old to do much about it. An annuity is supposed to be insurance (not an investment) ag...
by Stormbringer
Mon Jul 30, 2018 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Achieva offers 4.2% 5 year IRA CD for $75k or >
Replies: 31
Views: 5255

Re: Achieva offers 4.2% 5 year IRA CD for $75k or >

That is really impressive given that the 5-year treasury is yielding 2.846% right now.

Any idea why this is limited to IRAs?
by Stormbringer
Thu Jul 26, 2018 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 363
Views: 16150

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

$1,250,000 in paid off real estate at 10% yielding $125,000 in sustainable cash. Liquidity here would come from HELOC or refinancing. Income 2.5x living expenses. (I think this is my #2 choice) You should really create a capital reserves account. Every month, divert some of the cash flow and put it...
by Stormbringer
Thu Jul 26, 2018 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 363
Views: 16150

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

That makes perfect sense. It's cash flow vs. net worth. That I can get my head around. Yes, so real estate lets you "extract" more without risking the "nest egg". If you want to frame it in that way. Since equity "nest egg size" must be sufficiently low to guard against volatility or the sequence o...
by Stormbringer
Thu Jul 26, 2018 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The volatility explosion of 1933?
Replies: 32
Views: 1921

Re: The volatility explosion of 1933?

leads me to wonder whether it is sensible to consider the stock market from 1870 to the present as being "all the same thing." I've always been slightly uncomfortable with the idea of comparing the stock market over long periods of time. It seems like there are substantial differences that make it ...
by Stormbringer
Thu Jul 26, 2018 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Bond Money, Flat Yield Curve, Rising Rates
Replies: 27
Views: 2220

New Bond Money, Flat Yield Curve, Rising Rates

I'm about to put some new money into bonds. Normally I would put it into an intermediate term ETF like SCHZ , which has a 6 year duration and a 3.10% yield. However, with the yield curve so flat and the Fed pushing up short-term rates, I'm wondering if I'm better off putting it into a shorter durati...
by Stormbringer
Mon Jul 23, 2018 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 363
Views: 16150

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

1. I don't doubt that the quotes higher rates of return are possible, but they don't take into account the time invested. Anyone claiming to easily get consistent 38%+ returns with very little effort deserves a great deal of skepticism, particularly when they don't show their math (i.e. a list of i...
by Stormbringer
Sat Jul 21, 2018 4:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best Source for Travel Perks (Cruise)
Replies: 3
Views: 586

Best Source for Travel Perks (Cruise)

Hi, We're going to book a cruise. I was looking at CostcoTravel, as they provide a Costco card as a park which is worth a few hundred dollars in shopping at the warehouse. If I book it through United Airlines, they would award a bunch of airline miles. If I book it directly with the cruise line ther...
by Stormbringer
Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 363
Views: 16150

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

I'm curious for all the real estate investors in this thread to tell how you did during 2008-2009 downturn? Well, on paper I lost a bunch for a few years. Leverage magnifies your losses as well as your gains. Fortunately I had sold about half my buildings in the years prior and was sitting on cash ...
by Stormbringer
Fri Jul 20, 2018 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 363
Views: 16150

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

knpstr wrote:
Fri Jul 20, 2018 8:59 am
Did you buy them back? If no, why not? Presumably it must have been a fantastic buying opportunity and you knew the property well.
No, I bought some other foreclosures instead that were better properties in a better neighborhood.
by Stormbringer
Fri Jul 20, 2018 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 363
Views: 16150

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

Why not buy 4 houses with 10% down and make $845,715.16. Or 8 houses with 5% down and make, $1,691,430.32? Do you really believe it's as simple as that? That is not say that if you can find a willing, non-recourse lender who is willing to give you all of that upside in exchange for your paltry 3% a...
by Stormbringer
Fri Jul 20, 2018 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 363
Views: 16150

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

As far as I understand it IRR is not calculated on your equity. This is why the number I watch over time is return on equity. ROE decays over time as the property deleverages, culminating in an all-cash return once the mortgage is paid off. Once ROE decays below 10%, I start to think about doing a ...
by Stormbringer
Thu Jul 19, 2018 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 363
Views: 16150

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

Alright. Well, I'll watch for you on the Forbes 400. Or maybe your late night infomercial.
by Stormbringer
Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 363
Views: 16150

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

You just said "its absurd". You didn't even attempt to disprove it but giving a mathematical or even logical reason why you believe what you do. Those are the returns. The principal paydown, appreciation, and inflation hedging are actual returns but they aren't "realized" immediately. But they woul...
by Stormbringer
Thu Jul 19, 2018 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 363
Views: 16150

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

20% + 8% + 4% + 3.75% + 3% = 38.75% annualized return on your $20K down payment. The kicker here is that rental real estate returns very typically grow every year because if your expenses increase at the same level as rents, the way the math works, the difference becomes greater every year (kind of...
by Stormbringer
Wed Jul 18, 2018 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 206
Views: 15027

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

Maybe it "usually" is, but what is the magnitude of the consequences when it isn't? Well, in my state (a non-recourse state) the consequence could be your entire investment. But that's sort of gets into where real estate should be a looked at as a business, not just an investment. You have to manag...
by Stormbringer
Wed Jul 18, 2018 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 206
Views: 15027

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

It only works as long as the 'investment' is earning more than the cost to borrow. Owning one apartment building free and clear that is earning nothing is better than two with a loan payment due. Interest rates might change, or even if the debt is at a fixed rate there is no guarantee the apartment...
by Stormbringer
Wed Jul 18, 2018 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 206
Views: 15027

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

okay, thanks for clarifying. The only downside to this plan is being forced to manage properties late in life (80s, 90s, etc..), which seems like it could be hard to do. But one could always hire a property manager I guess. You can also do a 1031 exchange into an UPREIT if you want to be hands off.
by Stormbringer
Wed Jul 18, 2018 1:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 206
Views: 15027

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

With a 1031 exchange, I think you will eventually need to pay capital gains tax including the depreciation recapture if the property is ever sold, right? Not if you hold the property until death. Your kids inherit it, and then get a step-up in tax basis, wiping out the capital gain. Plus they get t...
by Stormbringer
Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Families - What's your total annual credit card spend?
Replies: 92
Views: 6874

Re: Families - What's your total annual credit card spend?

UpsetRaptor wrote:
Mon Jul 16, 2018 4:12 pm
Families - What's your total annual credit card spend?
Sadly, about $70-80K.
by Stormbringer
Sun Jul 15, 2018 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Estate Investment: Yay or Nay?
Replies: 27
Views: 2169

Re: Real Estate Investment: Yay or Nay?

Condo associations are usually pretty hostile to investors and tenants. I would steer clear.
by Stormbringer
Sun Jul 15, 2018 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 206
Views: 15027

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

I understand the basic concept and mechanic of leverage and how it acts as a double-edged sword, magnifying both gains and losses. What I don’t understand is why leverage is frowned upon for stocks but not for property where leverage is usually 5x. Investment property comes with favorable tax treat...
by Stormbringer
Sun Jul 15, 2018 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 206
Views: 15027

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

All leverages are bad. Our friends at the Wharton School would disagree with this statement. In finance, it is taught that debt can lower a firm's cost of capital , allowing it to be more profitable. This is the reason why companies such as AAPL issue bonds to buy back shares of stocks. They are bo...
by Stormbringer
Mon Jul 09, 2018 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WCI blog post - "This Real Estate Bubble - Likely Isn't a Bubble"
Replies: 58
Views: 6826

Re: WCI blog post - "This Real Estate Bubble - Likely Isn't a Bubble"

I haven't been seeing Carleton Sheets on late night TV, so I'm not too concerned.
by Stormbringer
Sun Jul 01, 2018 12:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Smart to transition to rental property?
Replies: 10
Views: 1301

Re: Smart to transition to rental property?

In my experience, people should be a professional landlord and run it as a business, or not be a landlord at all. Most people I know who have merely dabbled in it are ultimately disappointed.
by Stormbringer
Sat Jun 30, 2018 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a way to avoid bad companies in S&P 500?
Replies: 92
Views: 4683

Re: Is there a way to avoid bad companies in S&P 500?

Most of the S&P 500 companies disappear or change in 50 years. Is there a way to filter out terrible companies? Because if you buy the haystack, there has to be a few bad eggs out there. You mean like AAPL in 1997? When it was so bad that even Steve Jobs sold all but one share that he kept for sent...
by Stormbringer
Sat Jun 30, 2018 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a way to avoid bad companies in S&P 500?
Replies: 92
Views: 4683

Re: Why would creating an intelligent S&P 475 be so difficult to do?

I get it. The brightest stock analysts cannot beat the market with their actively managed funds… But why can’t those same bright ones at least identify 25 dogs out of 500 large companies? Or 20? Or even 10? What exactly makes something like that so very difficult to accomplish? Great question! Here...
by Stormbringer
Sat Jun 30, 2018 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is warren buffet okay with no owning any bonds?
Replies: 48
Views: 4671

Re: Why is warren buffet okay with no owning any bonds?

Warren buffet calls bonds a very dangerous investments and does not own any bonds. How is he okay with not owning any bonds at his age? Can we own 100% stocks at later years of our lives? If your goal is to maximize your wealth over long periods of time, stocks can be expected to do better than bon...
by Stormbringer
Sun Jun 03, 2018 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds in Roth IRA
Replies: 24
Views: 1596

Re: Bonds in Roth IRA

aristotelian wrote:
Sun Jun 03, 2018 9:33 am
Are you eligible for Traditional IRA deduction? Does she have a Roth 401k option?
We each contribute the maximum every year to a traditional IRA and roll it over into the Roth (i.e. backdoor). She does not have a Roth 401k option.
by Stormbringer
Sun Jun 03, 2018 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds in Roth IRA
Replies: 24
Views: 1596

Re: Bonds in Roth IRA

Hard to know based on only the information presented. How large a bond portion are you looking for? Could you hold more "good" bonds in your 401k? How much of the Roth space would be used for bonds? Do you have a taxable account? Her Roth-IRA represents about 20% of the total. I'm thinking a 70/30 ...
by Stormbringer
Sun Jun 03, 2018 5:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds in Roth IRA
Replies: 24
Views: 1596

Bonds in Roth IRA

My wife has a pretty decent selection of low-cost index funds in her 401(k), but lousy choices of bond funds. Most are actively managed with .75% fees or higher. The only low cost (.1% fee) bond fund is a short-term (~2 year duration) fund. On the other hand, her Roth IRA allows us to invest in anyt...