Search found 462 matches

by Stormbringer
Sun Apr 08, 2018 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 144
Views: 17000

Re: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

Yesterday Fidelity had the same Morgan Stanley CDs at 2.60%, but not now. Between the two MS banks VG has more than 23,000 available (well, now down to a little more than 20,000 since I started writing this). I guess Fidelity already sold its allotment, and it looks like Vanguard may sell out today...
by Stormbringer
Thu Apr 05, 2018 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Portfolio for High Net Worth Individuals - Different Rules?
Replies: 67
Views: 7367

Re: Bond Portfolio for High Net Worth Individuals - Different Rules?

HNWI that I know diversify into other investments, mostly real estate. Bonds aren't a major component of their portfolio. I buy residential real estate. While it isn't fixed income, it is reasonably predictable income with some growth potential and an inflation hedge. Plus I find it comforting to o...
by Stormbringer
Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “We’re not making enough money off you”
Replies: 62
Views: 10652

Re: “We’re not making enough money off you”

Badger1754 wrote:
Sun Apr 01, 2018 4:11 pm
“we’re not making enough money off of you”
My mom pretty much got the same reaction from her Ameriprise guy when I convinced her to switch to index funds, saving $5,700 a year in fees.
by Stormbringer
Sun Apr 01, 2018 6:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I loan my child money for college?
Replies: 73
Views: 5242

Re: Should I loan my child money for college?

Should we not fund our children's education even when EFC calls for it in the name of retirement? People seem to have wildly different views on education. My best friend's parents told their six children that college was a waste of money and refused to fill out the financial aid forms. My friend wa...
by Stormbringer
Sun Apr 01, 2018 5:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investing in syndicated real estate deals
Replies: 11
Views: 935

Re: Investing in syndicated real estate deals

I think you want to make sure the exit strategy is well understood. If the buildings get sold at some point, you could face an unwelcome capital gain. Conversely, if the deal doesn't pan out as expected, how to you get out of it? The other thing is that you need to get your head around the managing ...
by Stormbringer
Sun Apr 01, 2018 5:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I loan my child money for college?
Replies: 73
Views: 5242

Re: Should I loan my child money for college?

Should we not fund our children's education even when EFC calls for it in the name of retirement? People seem to have wildly different views on education. My best friend's parents told their six children that college was a waste of money and refused to fill out the financial aid forms. My friend wa...
by Stormbringer
Sat Mar 31, 2018 9:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What age is the best to give a child control of an inheritance?
Replies: 192
Views: 10652

Re: What age is the best to give a child control of an inheritance?

warner25 wrote:
Sat Mar 31, 2018 8:39 pm
I want to ask gasdoc (or anyone else in this position), what is the purpose of passing on an inheritance to adult children?
Because I would feel like a real jerk disinheriting my daughter for no good reason.
by Stormbringer
Sat Mar 31, 2018 6:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What age is the best to give a child control of an inheritance?
Replies: 192
Views: 10652

Re: What age is the best to give a child control of an inheritance?

gasdoc wrote:
Sat Mar 31, 2018 3:34 pm
Maybe give half at age 35, or at the time of death, and the other half at age 50
Think about the message this sends to your child. I would be pretty insulted if my parents thought so little of me that they felt they had to wait until I was 50 to responsibly handle an inheritance.
by Stormbringer
Sat Mar 31, 2018 3:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much do I need to save?
Replies: 16
Views: 2750

Re: How much do I need to save?

30k emergency fund (5-6 months more or less) You're doing great, but you don't seem to have a lot of liquidity in case you need a sizable chunk of money for something. With a family and a house and older cars, I'd sleep better at night with $50-100K liquid somewhere. You can burn through $30K prett...
by Stormbringer
Sat Mar 31, 2018 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay Off Mortgage with Windfall?
Replies: 57
Views: 5299

Re: Pay Off Mortgage with Windfall?

One thing to consider in situations like this is asset protection. For example, in my state a personal residence has some legal protection from creditors that a bank account doesn't have. On the other hand, if the windfall was an inheritance it remains 100% the property of the heir (and not their sp...
by Stormbringer
Mon Feb 26, 2018 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett Dislikes Bonds
Replies: 57
Views: 6762

Re: Warren Buffett Dislikes Bonds

anoop wrote:
Sun Feb 25, 2018 9:26 pm
He obviously doesn't think the same of t-bills.
Buffett has made it clear that he doesn't like sitting on so many T-bills either. He would rather use the money and make acquisitions with it, but he hasn't found the right business at the right price for a while.
by Stormbringer
Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Number at which to stop worrying
Replies: 170
Views: 17680

Re: Number at which to stop worrying

KlangFool wrote:
Mon Feb 12, 2018 5:53 pm
OP,

50 times your current annual expense.

At 72K per year, it is 3.6 million.

KlangFool
A 65 year-old couple can get an inflation-adjusted annuity that kicks off $72K per year for $2M. At that point all the gyrations of the market are someone else's problem to worry about.
by Stormbringer
Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Day trading for a living/career?
Replies: 95
Views: 6979

Re: Day trading for a living/career?

I don't even understand how people could theoretically make a living doing this, any more than you could make a living playing craps at the casino (and I used to be a dealer). For every good trade you make, someone else has to be making a bad trade. Yet surely there are a great many people with bett...
by Stormbringer
Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Attention Sqawk Box viewers
Replies: 16
Views: 1632

Re: Attention Sqawk Box viewers

tennisplyr wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:31 am
What is it that appeals to you about the show?
If I'm lucky, Warren Buffett will be a guest.
by Stormbringer
Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can the real estate market crash if there's no inventory?
Replies: 15
Views: 1399

Re: Can the real estate market crash if there's no inventory?

Low supply and high demand is a recipe for rising prices, at least in the short to medium term.

In the longer-term, I would expect high prices to attract more supply, and higher interest rates to reduce demand somewhat.
by Stormbringer
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quicken Premier 5-year subscription $0 (free) on quicken website
Replies: 161
Views: 10367

Re: Quicken Premier 5-year subscription $0 (free) on quicken website

I'm not particularly impressed with how Quicken is handling this. You would think that they would at least send an email explaining the situation. There are likely thousands of people who downloaded this and irreversibly updated their old Quicken version, and now are trapped in a subscription model ...
by Stormbringer
Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quicken Premier 5-year subscription $0 (free) on quicken website
Replies: 161
Views: 10367

Re: Quicken Premier 5-year subscription $0 (free) on quicken website

Being in IT, my bet is that they did what they could do on Sunday to stop the immediate problem. In the days and weeks ahead they will comb through their data to identify who obtained these subscriptions and develop some sort of plan to roll them back to one degree or another. I'd like to think that...
by Stormbringer
Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial Hole
Replies: 163
Views: 13828

Re: Financial Hole

finite_difference wrote:
Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:07 pm
A second job when he’s currently working 12 hours per day?
He said he had days off. He said was considering a side job. I doubt he's working 5-6 days a week at 12 hours a day or he would be raking in overtime.
by Stormbringer
Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial Hole
Replies: 163
Views: 13828

Re: Financial Hole

Payday loans are a good way to send yourself rocketing to the poorhouse. Watch this video to learn how expensive they really are. I would start by getting a second job and slashing expenses. You would be surprised what you could cut if you are determined enough. Once you stop the hemorrhaging, start...
by Stormbringer
Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quicken Premier 5-year subscription $0 (free) on quicken website
Replies: 161
Views: 10367

Re: Quicken Premier 5-year subscription $0 (free) on quicken website

I bet come Monday they either cancel all of these orders, or shorten the subscription significantly... I'm betting they all get reduced to 1-year. That way they can say you have nothing to complain about because you still got something for free. Meanwhile, the execs will be doing a Snoopy dance bec...
by Stormbringer
Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quicken Premier 5-year subscription $0 (free) on quicken website
Replies: 161
Views: 10367

Re: Quicken Premier 5-year subscription $0 (free) on quicken website

If this is the case then they can just take the subscription service away if its an error, not charge you the amount it should be without you agreeing. IANAL but they made me an offer, I accepted it and I "paid" for it in full. That's a "done deal." They may have a loophole because the amount of "p...
by Stormbringer
Sun Feb 04, 2018 9:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quicken Premier 5-year subscription $0 (free) on quicken website
Replies: 161
Views: 10367

Re: Quicken Premier 5-year subscription $0 (free) on quicken website

Interesting, on my account page, under purchases it says service ends in 1 year. Also, please note that there is no "download" link (unlike my older purchases, which have them). This suggests this may not be easily transferable to a new computer. You'll want to save the setup program. Also, backup y...
by Stormbringer
Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we in an index fund bubble? Bill Ackman thinks we are.
Replies: 45
Views: 4261

Re: Are we in an index fund bubble? Bill Ackman thinks we are.

panchilly wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:04 am
Bill Ackman
Oh, that guy. He somehow managed to lose his investors 4% last year. His hedge fund is hemorrhaging investors.
by Stormbringer
Tue Jan 30, 2018 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Vanderbilts
Replies: 26
Views: 4053

Re: The Vanderbilts

Leave your kids enough money so that they can do anything, but not so much that they can do nothing.
by Stormbringer
Tue Jan 30, 2018 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wow: Shiller PE is 34.52
Replies: 52
Views: 6440

Re: Wow: Shiller PE is 34.52

I really don't trust the Shiller PE right now for two reasons: The 10-year data set includes 2008-09, which was a fairly extreme financial event. Interest rates remain very low, which puts upward pressure on PE. Even if you do have faith in the metric, Dr. Shiller himself has said it is not useful f...
by Stormbringer
Tue Jan 30, 2018 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6393
Views: 1371708

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I have 20% position in TBM and dividends have not come close to making up for the rapid drop in NAV. NAV is only relevant if you want either to buy or sell. If you're holding forever, it doesn't matter. :beer TBM has a pretty high turnover ratio (~80%), which I believe means they sell bonds when th...
by Stormbringer
Sun Jan 28, 2018 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401k millionaires
Replies: 158
Views: 24055

Re: 401k millionaires

I assume they grabbed only individual accounts > $1M? I imagine the number may be significantly higher if you include households and multiple accounts. The Economic Policy Institute did a study in 2016 that looked at total retirement account savings by family. The threshold for the top 1% was $1,08...
by Stormbringer
Sat Jan 27, 2018 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401k millionaires
Replies: 158
Views: 24055

Re: 401k millionaires

Grogs wrote:
Sat Jan 27, 2018 10:57 am
My plan administrator (Schwab) gives statistics for where my 401k ranks against my peers, defined as age +/- 2 year's and salary +/- 5%.
Is that on their website somewhere?
by Stormbringer
Sat Jan 27, 2018 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to do with cash now
Replies: 27
Views: 3633

Re: What to do with cash now

Alexa9 wrote:
Wed Jan 24, 2018 7:23 pm
I would park it in CD's if you are worried. Safe and better than nothing. Although bonds are likely a better choice.
Bonds are not necessarily better:

10-year treasury: 2.66%
10-year Vanguard brokered CD: 2.8%
by Stormbringer
Fri Jan 26, 2018 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Starting to feel like the late 1990s?
Replies: 145
Views: 12955

Re: Starting to feel like the late 1990s?

The dotcom bubble had crazy volatility., which really encouraged day trading. This rise has been almost straight up (which is in some ways more scary). Also, I'm not getting stock tips from cab drivers yet, just talk of bitcoin.
by Stormbringer
Fri Jan 26, 2018 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it likely we return to historical real bond yields?
Replies: 17
Views: 1900

Re: Is it likely we return to historical real bond yields?

I think it will be quite a long time. Even though rates are ticking higher at a measured pace, as soon as the next recession comes along they are likely to come right back down. You've also got trillions in central bank money still out there, and a general savings glut around the world. It could be ...
by Stormbringer
Fri Jan 26, 2018 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking About Timing the Market
Replies: 75
Views: 5887

Re: Thinking About Timing the Market

markesquire wrote:
Thu Jan 25, 2018 2:21 pm
if I sell stocks, I'm receiving some of the highest (best) prices ever.
So you're going to sell stocks at 26x earnings, and do what with the money? Buy bonds at 40x earnings? Sit on cash until you are ready to time the market again?
by Stormbringer
Sat Jan 20, 2018 6:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can We Retire in Hawaii? Please Critique
Replies: 146
Views: 13908

Re: Can We Retire in Hawaii? Please Critique

The median household income on the Big Island is $60K per year. You can absolutely retire there. The only question is whether you can afford the house you are proposing, and others seem to have discussed that at length. Your posts seem to indicate a high degree of environmental consciousness. One th...
by Stormbringer
Sat Jan 20, 2018 2:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I stop 529 Contributions
Replies: 14
Views: 1718

Re: Should I stop 529 Contributions

We are maxing our tax advantage accounts all of them. Our 529 stands at $62k Age of the kid is 5 years. I think $62k at age 5 is great, but recommend saving a bit more. Many kids (mine included) now take 5 years to graduate, and if they pick an expensive school it could run $40-60K per year in toda...
by Stormbringer
Sat Jan 20, 2018 1:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Embarrassment Preventing Retirement Work: A factor for you?
Replies: 133
Views: 13348

Re: Embarrassment Preventing Retirement Work: A factor for you?

One of my buddies, his father retired but then took a part-time job driving cars (for dealer trades between car lots) at a Mercedes dealer. No embarrassment in that. :)

Or take a job as a ranger on a golf course.
by Stormbringer
Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Gifting to Divest Appreciated Shares
Replies: 3
Views: 256

Re: Gifting to Divest Appreciated Shares

Without filling out her 2018 tax return I don't think anyone can answer you. It reads like she can be claimed as your dependent, but I cannot tell. If so, the tax laws suggest that she will pay a high rate on any realized capital gains. If she is not your dependent nor can be claimed as your depend...
by Stormbringer
Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your one big takeaway from the Crash of 2008?
Replies: 379
Views: 62816

Re: What's your one big takeaway from the Crash of 2008?

I have lots of takeaways, but one of the most striking is how unevenly it affected people. I know three previously prosperous people who were absolutely wiped out with collapsed businesses, foreclosed homes, and forced to cash out retirement accounts at the bottom just to survive. For friends and fa...
by Stormbringer
Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Gifting to Divest Appreciated Shares
Replies: 3
Views: 256

Gifting to Divest Appreciated Shares

We have about $39K of appreciated Coca Cola (KO) shares in a taxable account left over from my pre-indexing days. We also have a 24 year-old daughter who is in her final year of college, earning about $20K at a part-time job for the family business. I'm wondering if we can gift shares to her to pay ...
by Stormbringer
Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Considering PhD...but so much to consider...
Replies: 51
Views: 3667

Re: Considering PhD...but so much to consider...

Personally, I would start with the question "what do I want to do with my life?" and go from there. Once that is settled, you can figure out the money part.
by Stormbringer
Mon Jan 15, 2018 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow 30,000 S&P 3000, Nasdaq 10,000
Replies: 39
Views: 4781

Re: Dow 30,000 S&P 3000, Nasdaq 10,000

S&P 3000 is a chip shot from here. I've seen estimated 2018 earnings in the ballpark of $135 for the index. Slap a 23 p/e ratio on that and you get S&P 3100. Put a little multiple expansion on it and you can to 3500 pretty quick. Interest rates and inflation are still low. We have global synchronize...
by Stormbringer
Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Understanding the Great Recession Impact
Replies: 44
Views: 3581

Re: Understanding the Great Recession Impact

What am I missing? When people say something like "we lost half our retirement savings" in the recession, that often indicates a fundamental misunderstanding of investing -- they confuse market prices of assets with actual cash. If you have 10,000 shares of XYZ which is currently trading at $100 pe...
by Stormbringer
Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shares Are Wildly Overpriced. But Bonds May Be Even Worse
Replies: 35
Views: 5873

Re: Shares Are Wildly Overpriced. But Bonds May Be Even Worse

Anyone who says shares are "wildly overpriced" slept through finance class. Interest rates, which remain exceptionally low, have a significant impact on how you value a stream of cash flows: http://financeformulas.net/formulaimages/NPV%201.gif On top of the low interest rates, we have strong earning...
by Stormbringer
Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401K - best for biz w/ employees?
Replies: 3
Views: 512

Re: 401K - best for biz w/ employees?

We have W2 employees so unfortunately biz partner and I cannot go Solo 401K. What’s the next best thing we should look at? I’m thinking 401K that allows after tax contributions and yearly IRA conversions. Is that the “next best thing” (to a solo 401k) that a biz owner with employees should consider...
by Stormbringer
Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Request your suggestion - current job Vs. New job
Replies: 35
Views: 2452

Re: Request your suggestion - current job Vs. New job

I currently reside in NJ and work from home. For new job - work from home option is not possible and i will have to commute 4 days a week to work from office. I can work from home on Fridays Honestly, this would dominate my decision more than the money. Working from home -- if you like it (and not ...
by Stormbringer
Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Relocation Package - Pay 2 points for 3.5 30 year?
Replies: 14
Views: 961

Re: Relocation Package - Pay 2 points for 3.5 30 year?

I have the opportunity to pay 2 points on a 360k loan (7200) to move the interest rate from 3.75 to 3.5 on a 30 year conventional loan. That seems really expensive. My bank always offers me a .5% reduction in interest for 2.5 points on my rental properties. By my math, you don't break even until yo...
by Stormbringer
Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quicken's future direction - a cause for concern
Replies: 516
Views: 69404

Re: Quicken's future direction - a cause for concern

I just ordered Quicken Premier 2017 from bonanza.com. They are selling them for $30 there. That should put this off for two more years. Hopefully a more appealing option emerges in that time.
by Stormbringer
Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Real Estate Investing: Cash Purchase vs. Mortgage
Replies: 10
Views: 1104

Re: Real Estate Investing: Cash Purchase vs. Mortgage

I'm looking at starting real estate investing in 2018. Trying to determine the best way to proceed: buying home in cash vs. mortgaging. I know this is a long debated issue with many articles on the topic, but was hoping those of you with experience (good or bad) could share your expertise and opini...
by Stormbringer
Fri Jan 05, 2018 10:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Convert to LLC for rental properties?
Replies: 10
Views: 1428

Re: Convert to LLC for rental properties?

Until now there seemed no reason to put them in an LLC, but if I do put them in an LLC would this be pass-through income eligible for the 20% deduction with the new tax rules? How much more complicated would the taxes be? Would my wife and I be a "single owner" so I'd report the income on a schedul...
by Stormbringer
Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Removed
Replies: 39
Views: 3845

Re: Jeremy Grantham (GMO) Talks Bubbles - 1/3/08

neilpilot wrote:
Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:39 am
Saw the thread's title and was fascinated that Grantham could have this vision a decade ago.
I think the thread title is wrong. It should be 1/3/18, which is the published date of the linked piece.
by Stormbringer
Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Removed
Replies: 39
Views: 3845

Re: Jeremy Grantham (GMO) Memo 1/3/08

Buffett is hiding in cash to the tune of 100B and Grantham is talking +50% gains in 1-2 years. Strange times. I think that can be explained by Buffett's holding period (forever) whereas Grantham would say that +50% would be followed by a crash. Buffett isn't looking to dart in and out of stocks. He...