Search found 572 matches

by Stormbringer
Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If someone keeps 500K in two different FDIC insured bank accounts, 250K at each, are they still covered?
Replies: 8
Views: 1102

Re: If someone keeps 500K in two different FDIC insured bank accounts, 250K at each, are they still covered?

So I guess that means if someone wins $10 mil. in the lottery and wants to park it temporarily, they will need accounts at 40 banks. Right? For a temporary deposit in a healthy economy, that seems excessively paranoid. Just don't put it in some single-branch mom and pop bank. In any event, I don't ...
by Stormbringer
Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 185
Views: 9266

Re: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

Consider a couple with $300,000 to invest: Using a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds and the 4% rule for withdrawals, they can take $12,000 a year, and adjust for inflation each year. Maybe they won't run out of money, but it isn't guaranteed. Firecalc shows a 4-5% failure rate after 30 years t...
by Stormbringer
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you think of the Tesla craziness?
Replies: 25
Views: 2223

Re: What do you think of the Tesla craziness?

Tesla cars are cool. TSLA stock is uninvestable as far as I'm concerned. The stock is priced for perfection, yet the company has production issues, delivery issues, financial issues, and a brilliant but erratic CEO who can move the stock price by 10% with one dumb tweet.
by Stormbringer
Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1-year Treasury Bill auction
Replies: 57
Views: 5813

Re: 1-year Treasury Bill auction

The 1-year (52-week) Treasury Bill, price at auction today was 97.391333, with investment rate of 2.668%, which for me is TEY of 2.996%% and TEY-APY of 3.016%. This is about 52 basis points above my savings account at 2.50%, so a very nice yield premium for extending maturity by one year. This bill...
by Stormbringer
Tue Oct 09, 2018 10:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3
Replies: 191
Views: 10869

Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

I've contemplated buying a Model S. I even had 240V wired to my garage for charging last year (don't overlook this). I'm at least slightly concerned with TSLA's finances and Elon's bizarre behavior in recent months. If I'm going to sink money into a car, I want to make sure the company will still be...
by Stormbringer
Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 185
Views: 9266

Re: Alan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

librarianaire wrote:
Sun Oct 07, 2018 8:49 pm
When I was shopping for SPIAs recently (for one of my parents), the only company I could find that sells SPIAs with inflation riders was Principal. Is anyone in this forum aware of others?
I think it's easier to find ones with a fixed percentage annual increase (like 2%). Fidelity offers them.
by Stormbringer
Sun Oct 07, 2018 5:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why TIPS only for unexpected inflation?
Replies: 27
Views: 2555

Re: Why TIPS only for unexpected inflation?

Expected inflation is built into all marketable bonds through the price people are willing to pay for them. Unexpected inflation is protected by the periodic adjustment of principal and interest of TIPS. However, there are caveats: There is a lag between when inflation is measured and the TIPS is a...
by Stormbringer
Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 185
Views: 9266

Re: Alan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

You give the insurance company $100,000, and they give you $6000 a year (or whatever) for life. Very simple, very straightforward. Of course, the $100,000 is gone, and if you die 2 years later, it was a pretty bad deal. Maybe, but the alternative may have been that, using the 4% rule, you only got ...
by Stormbringer
Sat Oct 06, 2018 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 185
Views: 9266

Re: Alan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

Income is the wrong goal Ugh, this is terrible advice! Most people's lives are organized around income, not the current market value of our brokerage accounts. Our first and foremost retirement goal should be to secure a reliable stream of income that provides us with an acceptable standard of livi...
by Stormbringer
Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Enjoying your money before retirement
Replies: 65
Views: 6219

Re: Enjoying your money before retirement

The idea is, by the time I am 45 or 50 years old, I could have some significant stock growth in there that I could begin to sell off and enjoy. Yes, I’ll pay taxes. But I can enjoy some of this growth much before retirement! For many people, 45 or 50 is about when they hit their peak earning years,...
by Stormbringer
Wed Sep 26, 2018 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Exactly how do index funds work?
Replies: 15
Views: 1825

Re: Exactly how do index funds work?

For most bond index funds, there is very significant turnover of the holdings. While technically true, this is a little misleading. An intermediate bond fund (like Vanguard's BIV/VBIIX) tracks the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. 5–10 Year Government/Credit Float Adjusted Index. They buy bonds with 10 years...
by Stormbringer
Thu Sep 20, 2018 7:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Another mortgage repayment thread..
Replies: 30
Views: 2356

Re: Another mortgage repayment thread..

A decision not to sell something is also a decision to buy it. Except when you account for frictional costs, like capital gains taxes and commissions. I may not be willing to buy something for $100, but I'm also not willing to sell it for $70 (the proceeds after costs). Maybe I value it at $90, I w...
by Stormbringer
Thu Sep 20, 2018 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds vs. Individual Bonds: Can someone quanitfy?
Replies: 31
Views: 1972

Re: Bond Funds vs. Individual Bonds: Can someone quanitfy?

To be clear you want to compare: i) Buying a 10 year bond and holding to maturity ii) Buying a bond fund and holding it for 10 years? If so i can make you a graph These just seem like very, very different things: i) In the beginning, the portfolio has a duration of 10 years, and by the end it is a ...
by Stormbringer
Thu Sep 20, 2018 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds vs. Individual Bonds: Can someone quanitfy?
Replies: 31
Views: 1972

Re: Bond Funds vs. Individual Bonds: Can someone quanitfy?

Vanguard Total Bond Market holds 8486 individual bonds, and is constantly buying new ones as old ones mature. I don't think VBTLX generally holds bonds to maturity. They have a 54.6% turnover ratio , suggesting that they are constantly selling bonds at market value (i.e. a capital loss in a rising ...
by Stormbringer
Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How real is cyber risk?
Replies: 176
Views: 9996

Re: How real is cyber risk?

Complexity AND length are your two deterrents to keeping your password more secure. From a pure math perspective, you are correct. The problem is a human one: Password 1: sgKu72)f+13^%$z Password 2: When I was a boy I liked to eat hot dogs. The first one is impossible for anyone to remember, and is...
by Stormbringer
Sat Sep 15, 2018 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How am I doing? -- 32 y/o lawyer in Bay Area
Replies: 32
Views: 4395

Re: How am I doing? -- 32 y/o lawyer in Bay Area

hambusin wrote:
Fri Sep 14, 2018 5:22 pm
Rent: Currently 2k/month
Isn't that about what a broom closet costs in the Bay area?
by Stormbringer
Sat Sep 15, 2018 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Leasing Cars in Retirement
Replies: 98
Views: 7560

Re: Leasing Cars in Retirement

I think we're all aware that the most cost effective way to own a car is to buy one a few years old and then drive it into the ground. Anything more than that and you are transitioning from a necessity towards a luxury good. At that point it becomes a question of means and preferences.
by Stormbringer
Sat Sep 15, 2018 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pension alternatives
Replies: 41
Views: 3334

Re: Pension alternatives

I don't see an SPIA as useful to anybody that doesn't have a fairly big investment portfolio. If you've only saved 50k or 100k, you probably don't want to take money out of those savings to get an SPIA. I dunno. Consider a couple of modest means who are retiring with two small social security check...
by Stormbringer
Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pension alternatives
Replies: 41
Views: 3334

Re: Pension alternatives

Find me a SPIA that makes payouts based on 6-8% returns (i.e. what pensions use) and I bet a lot of people would find them appealing. Locking your money up with 3% returns like todays SPIAs offer isn't as remotely as appealing. When I check immediateannuities.com it shows the current joint life pay...
by Stormbringer
Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How real is cyber risk?
Replies: 176
Views: 9996

Re: How real is cyber risk?

How real is cyber risk? Well, my day job is as a software developer and I used to hack for fun back in high school and college when I was young and foolish, so here's my take on it... The risk is very real. As I see it, there are three broad categories of threats to be concerned with: System failur...
by Stormbringer
Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pension alternatives
Replies: 41
Views: 3334

Re: Pension alternatives

It's always puzzled me that people generally like pensions and social security, but turn their noses up at SPIAs. In the absence of a pension, I really like the idea of using SS + annuity to create an income floor to protect against bad times.
by Stormbringer
Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you 7 figure guys organize multiple accounts?
Replies: 164
Views: 11999

Re: How do you 7 figure guys organize multiple accounts?

I am currently using Quicken 2017, but I am soon going to apply two-factor authentication to all my accounts, so I'm not sure how well the one-click update will work with that. I'm really opposed to Quicken storing my credentials on their servers, so I avoid using the Web Connect functionality. I pr...
by Stormbringer
Mon Aug 27, 2018 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pensions and retirement savings rate
Replies: 30
Views: 2603

Re: Pensions and retirement savings rate

I am curious of your thoughts on the relationship between pensions and retirement savings. I have descided on using a 15% savings rate for retirement saving. My new government job has a pension (DB) that takes about 10% from each of my paycheck. Do you think I should only save an additional 5% to m...
by Stormbringer
Mon Aug 27, 2018 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any metrics that say US Stocks are *NOT* expensive?
Replies: 70
Views: 4787

Re: Any metrics that say US Stocks are *NOT* expensive?

Stocks may be a bit expensive, but bonds are even more expensive. At 2.8%, the 10-year is 35X earnings with no opportunity for growth.
by Stormbringer
Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?
Replies: 158
Views: 13891

Re: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?

Would you mind humor my simple mind? It is too hard for me to read the spreadsheet. 1) What is the PITI of your property? 2) What is the rent? 3) Is it cash flow positive? 1) Using the numbers WD provided, plus some guestimation of my own I come up with a PITI of $650. 2) WD said $900-950. I used t...
by Stormbringer
Mon Aug 20, 2018 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?
Replies: 158
Views: 13891

Re: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?

Here is a recent post with numbers explaining why he laughs at a measly 20% annual return: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=253819&p=4019435#p4017203 Here are my numbers on that property: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRV0tNRngvIqmlalpK5YabNSGj8v6N0J0ldFqyTqpq...
by Stormbringer
Sun Aug 19, 2018 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?
Replies: 158
Views: 13891

Re: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?

Onto the questions... On your quote of "I haven't paid any taxes on my rental income yet", I'm guessing that the key word is "yet". Am I correct in understanding that you can deduct both the interest and the depreciation up to the max of your cash inflows? I.e., you have a potential of about $382K ...
by Stormbringer
Sun Aug 19, 2018 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?
Replies: 158
Views: 13891

Re: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?

Here ya go. I rented my house out while my company sent me to graduate school. I hired a property manager to handle "everything". I get a call from the manager at 3am (why I use that time) saying that the tenants report sewage backed up, coming back out the drain for the washer and it's going to co...
by Stormbringer
Sun Aug 19, 2018 6:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?
Replies: 158
Views: 13891

Re: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?

tadamsmar wrote:
Sun Aug 19, 2018 2:23 am
But this does not include maintenance or opportunity costs for the down payment and assumes the property is always rented.
Yeah, that's a terrible omission. People always underestimate maintenance and vacancies. I budget about $1.50 per sq ft per year for maintenance, and 5% for vacancies.
by Stormbringer
Sat Aug 18, 2018 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?
Replies: 158
Views: 13891

Re: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?

Here are Charlie Munger's thoughts on investing in real estate: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KZtGpUl ... e=youtu.be

Warning: Language and witty comments.
by Stormbringer
Sat Aug 18, 2018 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?
Replies: 158
Views: 13891

Re: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?

Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment? It can be. Or it can ruin you. I starting buying properties when I was 24 years old, and 25 years later I own 15 buildings and a management company that manages a little over 3,800 residential units. I've done quite well, but I've made mor...
by Stormbringer
Thu Aug 16, 2018 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity 401(k) millionaires hits record high
Replies: 48
Views: 5746

Re: Fidelity 401(k) millionaires hits record high

The number of 401(k) millionaires seems like a pretty worthless statistic unless it broken down by age. Comparing the balance of a 25yo with a 60yo makes no sense at all. Also, it would be far more interesting to a see total balances across all retirement accounts per household, as many people have ...
by Stormbringer
Thu Aug 16, 2018 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity 401(k) millionaires hits record high
Replies: 48
Views: 5746

Re: Fidelity 401(k) millionaires hits record high

sc9182 wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 4:06 pm
Or, take a cue from Mr. Romney - you might as well overshoot this target by 100x times over!
He's 71 now, so those RMDs should be kicking in now. :D
by Stormbringer
Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New York Times--Vanguard Warns of Worsening Odds for the Economy and Markets
Replies: 67
Views: 10125

Re: New York Times--Vanguard Warns of Worsening Odds for the Economy and Markets

What's actionable is to review your asset allocation and rebalance if things have gotten out of whack.
by Stormbringer
Sat Aug 11, 2018 6:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jamie Dimon: Higher rates are coming
Replies: 42
Views: 6767

Re: Jamie Dimon: Higher rates are coming

Kevin M wrote:
Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:12 pm
If you're really worried about inflation, consider TIPS and I Bonds.
Aren't I-Bonds currently returning negative real returns when you factor in taxes?
by Stormbringer
Sat Aug 11, 2018 6:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels
Replies: 104
Views: 11551

Re: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels

There is a contagion risk with Turkey. It has $466 billion in foreign debt (about 80% dollars, 20% euros) vs about $850 billion GDP. With the Lira falling precipitously, this makes it really difficult to to service those loans. European banks are particularly exposed. As we all know, the key to good...
by Stormbringer
Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HBO Hard Knocks Clip - Compound Interest Clip
Replies: 10
Views: 1385

Re: HBO Hard Knocks Clip - Compound Interest Clip

What's sad is that a majority of these guys are going to be broke within a few years of retiring from the sport.
by Stormbringer
Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?
Replies: 64
Views: 7885

Re: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?

The S&P 500 hit an all-time high of 1,552 in March, 2000. It hit a new all-time high of 1,589 in April, 2013. Nasdaq took even longer.

So we've already had a lost decade (plus 3 years). I think people did fine.
by Stormbringer
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Prescription Price Shopping?
Replies: 37
Views: 2416

Re: Prescription Price Shopping?

I'm taking a somewhat pricey medication and my insurance covered a huge chunk (at least compared to what I see online) but I'm wondering if the price would vary much between CVS, Walgreen, Rite Aid, etc.? I take blood pressure pills. Walgreens charges $90 for 30 generic pills. Costco is $13 for 90 ...
by Stormbringer
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice needed on final house negotiations
Replies: 37
Views: 2512

Re: Advice needed on final house negotiations

Personally, I would seek a second appraisal from a company that is acceptable to the lender. You are correct that they are in a pickle if it comes back low as well.
by Stormbringer
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Absolute vs percentage saving
Replies: 21
Views: 2448

Re: Absolute vs percentage saving

Most of my internet research and posts on this forum suggest a percentage of income based savings rate. Although there is no consensus, 15-20% of gross income at a minimum seems to be the recommendation on the internet. I think there is a better way. The first thing I would do is create a retiremen...
by Stormbringer
Wed Aug 08, 2018 4:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Will you pay for your kids' college/graduate education?
Replies: 366
Views: 15615

Re: Will you pay for your kids' college/graduate education?

Yes. It wasn't her fault that we make too much for her to qualify for financial aid, which is mostly need-based. She just graduated in June, debt-free. It was pretty easy -- we put about $3K a year into a 529 plan for her, and encouraged her to attend a nearby state university. The total bill was le...
by Stormbringer
Wed Aug 08, 2018 2:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Landlord advice needed with section 8
Replies: 38
Views: 3784

Re: Landlord advice needed with section 8

I have had lots of section 8 tenants over the years. Generally speaking, my policy is that I charge market rents ... period. If the housing authority won't approve it, the tenant needs to find somewhere else to live. Sometimes they will pay, sometimes they will not. Also, there are different program...
by Stormbringer
Wed Aug 08, 2018 1:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IRS Guidance (prelim) on QBI deduction
Replies: 9
Views: 931

Re: IRS Guidance (prelim) on QBI deduction

It looks like the IRS is planning to adopt a very narrow and favorable definition of "reputation or skill": Thus, proposed §1.199A-5(b)(2)(xiv) limits the meaning of the “reputation or skill” clause to fact patterns in which the individual or RPE is engaged in the trade or business of: (1) receiving...
by Stormbringer
Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jamie Dimon: Higher rates are coming
Replies: 42
Views: 6767

Re: Jamie Dimon: Higher rates are coming

This sort of reminds me of 2009, when Warren Buffett warned that inflation was coming due to all the stimulus. Even for the brightest minds, these things can be difficult to predict. What are us mere mortals to do?
by Stormbringer
Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone
Replies: 217
Views: 13865

Re: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone

I've never been a big fan of this rule of thumb for several reasons: It doesn't account for pensions (and social security) and these are not easy to put a value on. It doesn't account for how well-funded your retirement account is. If you've "won the game" (Berstein) you can afford less risk in the ...
by Stormbringer
Fri Aug 03, 2018 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to calculate Real Estate in your Asset Allocation
Replies: 20
Views: 2325

Re: How to calculate Real Estate in your Asset Allocation

I don't consider it all. If I did, I would lump it with equities not bonds because of the variability in the income stream.