Search found 306 matches

by Stormbringer
Fri Oct 13, 2017 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 year anniversary of the beginning of the Great Recession
Replies: 45
Views: 4170

Re: 10 year anniversary of the beginning of the Great Recession

Last Monday/Tuesday marked the peaked of the 2003 Bull run which was followed by the Great Recession. It has been a long ten years and it's a good reminder to think back (with hindsight) of the financial decisions you made in 2008-2009. A 54% drop in the market can test anyone's resolve, and can re...
by Stormbringer
Mon Oct 09, 2017 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy when there's blood in the streets!
Replies: 39
Views: 6232

Re: Buy when there's blood in the streets!

After hearing "Buy when there's blood in the streets!" talk among investors over the years my question is for a index fund investor that's already fully invested without tons of cash laying around how could one actually "buy" any decent quantity of stocks upon a crash? If there is "blood in the str...
by Stormbringer
Mon Oct 09, 2017 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% in bond to wait for market crash?
Replies: 122
Views: 11680

Re: 100% in bond to wait for market crash?

HenrysPlan2 wrote:
Mon Oct 09, 2017 6:09 pm
100% in bond to wait for market crash?
A buddy of mine did that two years ago. He's still waiting.
by Stormbringer
Sun Oct 08, 2017 5:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a “bond bubble”?
Replies: 35
Views: 3200

Re: What is a “bond bubble”?

That is probably not true because a long-term bond fund will not hold its bonds to maturity. And an intermediate-term bond fund will probably sell some of its bonds to a short-term bond fund. You get the idea. Ah, you are right. I just checked and my bond bond (SCHZ) has a 112% turnover rate. I lea...
by Stormbringer
Sun Oct 08, 2017 4:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a “bond bubble”?
Replies: 35
Views: 3200

Re: What is a “bond bubble”?

Some would argue that there is no such thing as a bubble in bonds, because if held to maturity you know exactly what you are going to receive. A $1000 10-year bond at 2.5% pays exactly that, and you you get you $1000 back at the end, no more, no less. Ignoring defaults, as long as you aren't selling...
by Stormbringer
Sun Oct 08, 2017 1:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm thinking about cashing completely out of equites....
Replies: 75
Views: 8076

Re: I'm thinking about cashing completely out of equites....

I'm 56 years old and I have all the money I will ever need based on my lifestyle (boring). With the market overdue for a correction does it ever make sense to completely liqudate ones exposure to risk. I'm currently at a 50/50 mix. Thoughts? So you are going to sell all your stocks, which trade at ...
by Stormbringer
Sun Oct 08, 2017 1:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Stock Market Is "Fully Valued," Says Vanguard's Jack Bogle 10/7/17
Replies: 87
Views: 12029

Re: The Stock Market Is "Fully Valued," Says Vanguard's Jack Bogle 10/7/17

Warren Buffett agrees.
Warrent Buffet wrote: valuations make sense with interest rates where they are
However, note that neither of them says "overvalued".
by Stormbringer
Sat Oct 07, 2017 9:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sell or keep shares of a private company?
Replies: 39
Views: 2172

Re: Sell or keep shares of a private company?

Venture capitalists aren't known for their generosity. If they are offering you $1M it is because they believe it is worth far more than that. If you believe in this company, think it will IPO in the near future, and your shares aren't locked up, that might prove to be a much more rewarding opportun...
by Stormbringer
Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stocks going up only because all the alternatives are lousy?
Replies: 45
Views: 4643

Re: Are stocks going up only because all the alternatives are lousy?

the inflation monster is nowhere to be found There is loads of inflation in asset prices, just not in consumer prices. Perhaps this is because the expansion of the money supply didn't end up in the pocket of the consumer, but instead was used to recapitalize banks and buy bonds and mortgage-backed ...
by Stormbringer
Thu Oct 05, 2017 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current Bull Market could last years
Replies: 89
Views: 9715

Re: Current Bull Market could last years

I don't know about years, but at least through the end of the year seems highly likely. I think a lot of investors are banking on a more favorable tax environment in 2018, so gains are going to tend to be deferred until then. That means there will be fewer sellers in the market than one would expect...
by Stormbringer
Sun Sep 17, 2017 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article--The reason Jack Bogle doesn’t fly first class says everything about his investing legacy
Replies: 51
Views: 4136

Re: Article--The reason Jack Bogle doesn’t fly first class says everything about his investing legacy

I dunno. I invest like Bogle but I still fly first class. I'm more interested in maximizing my quality of life than I am in being the richest guy in the cemetery. IMHO quality of life has nothing to do with luxuries. Having experienced flights to Europe both packed into coach like sardines and in f...
by Stormbringer
Sun Sep 17, 2017 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article--The reason Jack Bogle doesn’t fly first class says everything about his investing legacy
Replies: 51
Views: 4136

Re: Article--The reason Jack Bogle doesn’t fly first class says everything about his investing legacy

I dunno. I invest like Bogle but I still fly first class. I'm more interested in maximizing my quality of life than I am in being the richest guy in the cemetery.
by Stormbringer
Sun Sep 17, 2017 9:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Psychological effects of Early Retirement in peak earning years.
Replies: 63
Views: 7085

Re: Physiological effects of Early Retirement in peak earning years.

I know I don't need more savings yet when I think about leaving the job it feels like I'm losing something. So, my question would be has anyone felt these psychological issues retiring during peak earning years? My grandfather took an early retirement package from the phone company at 55. Friday ni...
by Stormbringer
Sun Sep 17, 2017 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401k's are for sheeple! According to some guy.
Replies: 19
Views: 2446

Re: 401k's are for sheeple! According to some guy.

He does suggest that it's not worth it to go to college. I've had several wealthy people say this sort of thing to me, which I find both ignorant and annoying. 84% of the Forbes 400 has at least a bachelor's degree, and across the broader economy people with a college degree make 56% more than thos...
by Stormbringer
Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [WSJ] Your Tolerance for Investment Risk Is Probably Not What You Think
Replies: 49
Views: 5994

Re: [WSJ] Your Tolerance for Investment Risk Is Probably Not What You Think

Actually, what shook me in 2009 wasn't the stock market, it was Wells Fargo closing my HELOC. Even though I didn't carry a balance, for years I treated it as my emergency fund. It never occurred to me that the bank might just close millions of them without notice at the worst possible time. That for...
by Stormbringer
Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What If U.S. Stocks Stay Expensive For Years?
Replies: 50
Views: 7388

Re: What If U.S. Stocks Stay Expensive For Years?

Define "expensive" in an environment where the US 10-year is stuck at 2% and the German 10-year is under .5%.
by Stormbringer
Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the hurricane damages [Berkshire Hathaway's cash on-hand]
Replies: 25
Views: 3050

Re: the hurricane damages [Berkshire Hathaway's cash on-hand]

danaht wrote:
Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:25 pm
Premiums will be raised nation wide to pay for all the claims.
That really sticks in my craw. We don't get hurricanes in Wisconsin. Why should my premiums go up? Grrr.
by Stormbringer
Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REIT versus Rental properties
Replies: 15
Views: 2056

Re: REIT versus Rental properties

would I benefit similarly if I cashed out and invested the entire nut in a REIT? If you do this, you might want to look into Umbrella Partnership REITs (UPREIT). Because of the way they are structured, you can do a 1031 tax deferred exchange. Otherwise, cashing out and buying a normal REIT is likel...
by Stormbringer
Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "interest rates are so low....why would you"arguments
Replies: 62
Views: 6419

Re: The "interest rates are so low....why would you"arguments

I think most people think about the monthly payment much more than the price. With low rates, less of each payment is interest and more is principal, allowing them to buy a more expensive (and presumably nicer) home for the same payment. That seems perfectly rational to me, particularly if you have ...
by Stormbringer
Sat Jul 29, 2017 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Living Off Dividends
Replies: 285
Views: 22512

Re: Living Off Dividends

In this case, the OP apparently has a larger taxable account than "needed", such that a 2.5% withdrawal rate exceeds his expenses. All of us should be so fortunate... That may be the case. At 48, we have $1.5M in retirement accounts and adding about $83K per year (Solo 401K, regular 401K, two backd...
by Stormbringer
Mon Jul 24, 2017 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Living Off Dividends
Replies: 285
Views: 22512

Re: Living Off Dividends

ThrustVectoring wrote:Are you willing to cut your expenses by whatever percentage the stock market goes down by?
If all you are living off is your dividend checks and never selling shares, how is the stock price relevant?
by Stormbringer
Mon Jul 24, 2017 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Living Off Dividends
Replies: 285
Views: 22512

Re: Living Off Dividends

Not a good idea to make withdrawals when a stock fund is down, and if you are taking dividends, you are making withdrawals even when the fund has dropped 30-40%. Much better to let the divy's buy additional shares at a low price. What I'm suggesting is living off the stream of dividend payments, no...
by Stormbringer
Mon Jul 24, 2017 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Living Off Dividends
Replies: 285
Views: 22512

Living Off Dividends

If an investor had say three years of living expenses in a money market account, and could live off the dividend yield (say 2.5%) of a dividend-oriented index fund, is there any reason to own bonds? The logic being that in aggregate, dividends rarely get cut, and when they do, they tend to be restor...
by Stormbringer
Thu Jul 20, 2017 9:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My favorite CNBC program
Replies: 39
Views: 4813

Re: My favorite CNBC program

I like The Profit. As a small business owner, I've learned a thing or two.

Most of the daytime programming is just financial porn. Although I do like to hear the view of (some of) the business leaders that make appearances on Squawk Box in the mornings.
by Stormbringer
Thu Jul 20, 2017 6:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slow, steady AA glide path as long as stocks hit new highs?
Replies: 21
Views: 2127

Re: Slow, steady AA glide path as long as stocks hit new highs?

Doesn't Jack subscribe to "age in bonds" or some variation of it? If so, doesn't that imply a glide path? He does. but he also advocates counting Social Security as part of your bonds, which makes things horribly confusing. The present value of the social security annuity can be hundreds of thousan...
by Stormbringer
Sat Jul 15, 2017 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are folks handling the unprecedented rise in the market ?
Replies: 166
Views: 18632

Re: How are folks handling the unprecedented rise in the market ?

I'm doing three things: 1) Being 48, I felt my 80/20 allocation was a touch too aggressive, so with each 50-point rise in the S&P 500 I've been shifting 5% towards bonds. Yesterday we crossed 2450 and I'm at 65/45 now. At 2500 I'll re-balance again to 60/40. I'll probably stop there. 2) I also re-ba...
by Stormbringer
Thu Jul 13, 2017 8:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: S Corp - minimize taxes, maximize deductions
Replies: 29
Views: 2334

Re: S Corp - minimize taxes, maximize deductions

I'm in exactly the same situation. I've been an independent software developer for 23 years, billing through my S-corp. Here is what I do: Solo 401(k) Set my salary so that between the $18K I contribute and the company portion I max out the $54K per year. In two more years I'll be able to add catch-...
by Stormbringer
Tue Jul 11, 2017 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement is Risky Business
Replies: 41
Views: 7283

Re: Retirement is Risky Business

wrongfunds wrote:
Stormbringer wrote:An inflation-adjusted SPIA seems to mitigate at least of third of those risks.
Only if you do not worry about the liquidity of the company providing that annuity! Why do you think that risk is nill?
They are backed by the state, at least up to a certain amount.
by Stormbringer
Sun Jul 09, 2017 2:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we/should we afford a $2M house?
Replies: 96
Views: 15024

Re: Can we/should we afford a $2M house?

I spent about $1M on a house in a LCOL area and have no regrets. I wish I had spent a bit more on a few upgrades that are now difficult to do. If you are confident you will live there for many years to come and have stable, reliable income, take advantage of these interest rates. I do recommend a 15...
by Stormbringer
Sun Jul 09, 2017 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bond wipeout has just begun"???
Replies: 84
Views: 12290

Re: "Bond wipeout has just begun"???

Is anyone else much less concerned about the relatively minor losses in an intermediate duration bond fund than they are about the implications for rising bond yields on the equity side of things? If the risk-free rate goes up a lot, and corporate borrowing costs go up, I'm more worried about what ...
by Stormbringer
Sun Jul 09, 2017 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement is Risky Business
Replies: 41
Views: 7283

Re: Retirement is Risky Business

An inflation-adjusted SPIA seems to mitigate at least of third of those risks.
by Stormbringer
Tue Jul 04, 2017 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?
Replies: 225
Views: 34539

Re: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?

What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target? I think that is the wrong question to ask. Real income is a bigger driver of retirement security than net worth is. We tend to live life on the income statement more than the balance sheet, and net worth doesn't do a retiree much good unless it can...
by Stormbringer
Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Costco vs. Amazon - Thoughts of Prime Members?
Replies: 80
Views: 9466

Re: Costco vs. Amazon - Thoughts of Prime Members?

We have both Costco and Amazon Prime memberships. To me they are very, very different. Costco sells a comparatively small number of items. They are great for loading up on bulky staples, cleaning supplies, beverages, or feeding several carloads of relatives visiting for the holidays. The treasure hu...
by Stormbringer
Sun Jul 02, 2017 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "angle" at Schwab
Replies: 32
Views: 4348

Re: The "angle" at Schwab

What "angle" should I expect, if any, from Schwab folks in terms of pushing products & services? Will they try to steer me towards opening one particular account over another? I'm not seeing that they charge an AUM, so will the person I speak to be trying to sell a product for commission, or are th...
by Stormbringer
Sat Jul 01, 2017 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Effective Tax Rate
Replies: 10
Views: 1373

Effective Tax Rate

I'm trying to calculate what my effective tax rate has been in recent years, which sounded easy until I actually tried to do it. Effective Tax Rate = Taxes / Income What are my "taxes"? Federal only? Federal plus state? Should I include FICA taxes? If so, just my part? Or employer part as well? I am...
by Stormbringer
Thu Jun 22, 2017 7:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argentina issuing 100-year bond.
Replies: 64
Views: 6797

Re: Argentina issuing 100-year bond.

So some fund manager buys this junk and is a hero because his fund is yielding more than everyone else's. Investors desperate for income pour money into his fund, generating enormous fees. A few years later the manager retires rich and some junior guy gets stuck managing the fund. A couple years aft...
by Stormbringer
Thu Jun 22, 2017 6:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Did I just get seriously ripped off?? (Car lease)
Replies: 54
Views: 5479

Re: Did I just get seriously ripped off?? (Car lease)

Panople wrote:$3,406.18 (fees)
I would say if you got ripped off, it was here.
by Stormbringer
Sat Jun 17, 2017 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FireCalc: Equities almost 70% for a 20 year term???
Replies: 43
Views: 4224

Re: FireCalc: Equities almost 70% for a 20 year term???

Age in bonds is a horrible rule of thumb. I completely agree. Bogle says to include Social Security and pensions in your bond allocation. The net present value of SS is often hundreds of thousands of dollars, which means that many people, young people in particular, are already WAY over-allocated t...
by Stormbringer
Sat Jun 17, 2017 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Does Fed Reduce Balance Sheet?
Replies: 24
Views: 2883

Re: How Does Fed Reduce Balance Sheet?

So imagine that the Fed prints $100 bills and lends them out (i.e. buys bonds). When those bonds mature, the $100 bills come back to the Fed. It could: Lend them out to someone else. Burn them. Hand them over to the treasury to spend or repay public debt. Until now, they've been doing the first thin...
by Stormbringer
Sun Jun 11, 2017 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds
Replies: 118
Views: 15706

Re: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds

My main complaint about buying foreign stocks is that it comes with currency risk, yet the market doesn't reward investors for taking on that additional risk.
by Stormbringer
Sat Jun 10, 2017 12:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?
Replies: 82
Views: 7999

Re: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?

This post reports on a growing body of research indicating that inflation may be waning as a global risk, due to aging populations and shrinking work forces, especially in developed countries. It seems to me that there is a mathematical near-certainty lurking somewhere out there on the horizon of w...
by Stormbringer
Mon Jun 05, 2017 5:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Article: Compare ROI of college education vs S&P500
Replies: 52
Views: 3326

Re: Article: Compare ROI of college education vs S&P500

I keep seeing things like this and they really make my blood boil. My best friend's parents used this logic on him and his brothers when they graduated high school. All three of them were smart and hard-working--definitely college material, yet their parents wouldn't even cooperate in filling out fi...
by Stormbringer
Sun Jun 04, 2017 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early Retirement Approaches (forced) - review my situation?
Replies: 42
Views: 7447

Re: Early Retirement Approaches (forced) - review my situation?

You might want to explore gifting some shares of the individual stocks to your child to fund college, as she may be able to liquidate them without incurring capital gains. Beware the "kiddie tax", but it might help around the edges. Also, you are going to want to re-risk a bit. You are pretty stock ...
by Stormbringer
Sun Jun 04, 2017 7:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Real estate investing the Boglehead way
Replies: 39
Views: 8440

Re: Real estate investing the Boglehead way

I own a portfolio of 15 rental properties and a property management company built up over the past 23 years. My advice to would-be investors is to consider the following: Don't underestimate expenses. This is grievous mistake that many investors make, assuming that roofs and windows never need to be...
by Stormbringer
Sun Jun 04, 2017 6:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Everything keeps going up, this feels too easy?
Replies: 113
Views: 9849

Re: Everything keeps going up, this feels too easy?

Greenspan gave his irrational exuberance speech in 1996. The markets continued to go up for years afterwards. These markets seem to lack euphoria, and that makes me think things may well have quite a ways to run. In the 1990s I was being given stock tips by cab drivers. In the 2000s I would wake up ...
by Stormbringer
Sat Jun 03, 2017 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people make 10 year return predictions?
Replies: 23
Views: 2018

Re: Why do people make 10 year return predictions?

we have absolutely no idea what valuations will be in 10 years. Well, maybe. If I flip a coin, we have no idea whether it will be heads or tails. If I flip it ten times, we could expect it to be about 50/50, but a pretty high margin for error. If I flip a coin 10,000 times, there is a very high pro...
by Stormbringer
Thu Jun 01, 2017 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Senility: How do you plan on protecting your money when you lose your mental capacities?
Replies: 72
Views: 6828

Re: SPIA

Taylor Larimore wrote:Bogleheads:

A possible solution for those without a trust or responsible relative could be a Single Premium Immediate-Annuity (SPIA). This is similar to a lifetime pension or Social Security income.

Best wishes.
Taylor
+1

This is my intent, and a very valid reason to purchase an SPIA.
by Stormbringer
Thu Jun 01, 2017 5:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why does step-up basis apply to estates, but not gifts?
Replies: 29
Views: 2463

Re: Why does step-up basis apply to estates, but not gifts?

If it applied to gifts, families would engage in a round robin of gift giving to eliminate their capital gains. You give me your appreciated shares of AAPL and I'll give you my appreciated shares of AMZN, and poof, no capital gain tax for either of us.
by Stormbringer
Wed May 31, 2017 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Estate: Direct vs Indirect Investment
Replies: 92
Views: 8058

Re: Real Estate: Direct vs Indirect Investment

Theseus wrote:Is the 15% return post tax? And do you include appreciation in the property value as part of the return?
Pre-tax, although depreciation takes the edge off it a bit. I do include appreciation as part of the return, just as I would if shares of stock I held went up.
by Stormbringer
Mon May 29, 2017 5:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Estate: Direct vs Indirect Investment
Replies: 92
Views: 8058

Re: Real Estate: Direct vs Indirect Investment

Is the potential return from direct investment higher? What do you real estate guys think of each type of real estate investing, both pros and cons? I currently have 15 "buy and hold" rental properties. On paper, they always look like they will give a 20-25% return on equity when I buy them, but in...