Search found 560 matches

by Stormbringer
Thu Sep 20, 2018 7:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Another mortgage repayment thread..
Replies: 30
Views: 2196

Re: Another mortgage repayment thread..

A decision not to sell something is also a decision to buy it. Except when you account for frictional costs, like capital gains taxes and commissions. I may not be willing to buy something for $100, but I'm also not willing to sell it for $70 (the proceeds after costs). Maybe I value it at $90, I w...
by Stormbringer
Thu Sep 20, 2018 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds vs. Individual Bonds: Can someone quanitfy?
Replies: 31
Views: 1818

Re: Bond Funds vs. Individual Bonds: Can someone quanitfy?

To be clear you want to compare: i) Buying a 10 year bond and holding to maturity ii) Buying a bond fund and holding it for 10 years? If so i can make you a graph These just seem like very, very different things: i) In the beginning, the portfolio has a duration of 10 years, and by the end it is a ...
by Stormbringer
Thu Sep 20, 2018 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds vs. Individual Bonds: Can someone quanitfy?
Replies: 31
Views: 1818

Re: Bond Funds vs. Individual Bonds: Can someone quanitfy?

Vanguard Total Bond Market holds 8486 individual bonds, and is constantly buying new ones as old ones mature. I don't think VBTLX generally holds bonds to maturity. They have a 54.6% turnover ratio , suggesting that they are constantly selling bonds at market value (i.e. a capital loss in a rising ...
by Stormbringer
Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How real is cyber risk?
Replies: 175
Views: 9280

Re: How real is cyber risk?

Complexity AND length are your two deterrents to keeping your password more secure. From a pure math perspective, you are correct. The problem is a human one: Password 1: sgKu72)f+13^%$z Password 2: When I was a boy I liked to eat hot dogs. The first one is impossible for anyone to remember, and is...
by Stormbringer
Sat Sep 15, 2018 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How am I doing? -- 32 y/o lawyer in Bay Area
Replies: 32
Views: 4304

Re: How am I doing? -- 32 y/o lawyer in Bay Area

hambusin wrote:
Fri Sep 14, 2018 5:22 pm
Rent: Currently 2k/month
Isn't that about what a broom closet costs in the Bay area?
by Stormbringer
Sat Sep 15, 2018 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Leasing Cars in Retirement
Replies: 97
Views: 6950

Re: Leasing Cars in Retirement

I think we're all aware that the most cost effective way to own a car is to buy one a few years old and then drive it into the ground. Anything more than that and you are transitioning from a necessity towards a luxury good. At that point it becomes a question of means and preferences.
by Stormbringer
Sat Sep 15, 2018 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pension alternatives
Replies: 41
Views: 3214

Re: Pension alternatives

I don't see an SPIA as useful to anybody that doesn't have a fairly big investment portfolio. If you've only saved 50k or 100k, you probably don't want to take money out of those savings to get an SPIA. I dunno. Consider a couple of modest means who are retiring with two small social security check...
by Stormbringer
Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pension alternatives
Replies: 41
Views: 3214

Re: Pension alternatives

Find me a SPIA that makes payouts based on 6-8% returns (i.e. what pensions use) and I bet a lot of people would find them appealing. Locking your money up with 3% returns like todays SPIAs offer isn't as remotely as appealing. When I check immediateannuities.com it shows the current joint life pay...
by Stormbringer
Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How real is cyber risk?
Replies: 175
Views: 9280

Re: How real is cyber risk?

How real is cyber risk? Well, my day job is as a software developer and I used to hack for fun back in high school and college when I was young and foolish, so here's my take on it... The risk is very real. As I see it, there are three broad categories of threats to be concerned with: System failur...
by Stormbringer
Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pension alternatives
Replies: 41
Views: 3214

Re: Pension alternatives

It's always puzzled me that people generally like pensions and social security, but turn their noses up at SPIAs. In the absence of a pension, I really like the idea of using SS + annuity to create an income floor to protect against bad times.
by Stormbringer
Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you 7 figure guys organize multiple accounts?
Replies: 164
Views: 11853

Re: How do you 7 figure guys organize multiple accounts?

I am currently using Quicken 2017, but I am soon going to apply two-factor authentication to all my accounts, so I'm not sure how well the one-click update will work with that. I'm really opposed to Quicken storing my credentials on their servers, so I avoid using the Web Connect functionality. I pr...
by Stormbringer
Mon Aug 27, 2018 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pensions and retirement savings rate
Replies: 30
Views: 2572

Re: Pensions and retirement savings rate

I am curious of your thoughts on the relationship between pensions and retirement savings. I have descided on using a 15% savings rate for retirement saving. My new government job has a pension (DB) that takes about 10% from each of my paycheck. Do you think I should only save an additional 5% to m...
by Stormbringer
Mon Aug 27, 2018 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any metrics that say US Stocks are *NOT* expensive?
Replies: 70
Views: 4693

Re: Any metrics that say US Stocks are *NOT* expensive?

Stocks may be a bit expensive, but bonds are even more expensive. At 2.8%, the 10-year is 35X earnings with no opportunity for growth.
by Stormbringer
Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?
Replies: 158
Views: 13737

Re: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?

Would you mind humor my simple mind? It is too hard for me to read the spreadsheet. 1) What is the PITI of your property? 2) What is the rent? 3) Is it cash flow positive? 1) Using the numbers WD provided, plus some guestimation of my own I come up with a PITI of $650. 2) WD said $900-950. I used t...
by Stormbringer
Mon Aug 20, 2018 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?
Replies: 158
Views: 13737

Re: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?

Here is a recent post with numbers explaining why he laughs at a measly 20% annual return: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=253819&p=4019435#p4017203 Here are my numbers on that property: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRV0tNRngvIqmlalpK5YabNSGj8v6N0J0ldFqyTqpq...
by Stormbringer
Sun Aug 19, 2018 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?
Replies: 158
Views: 13737

Re: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?

Onto the questions... On your quote of "I haven't paid any taxes on my rental income yet", I'm guessing that the key word is "yet". Am I correct in understanding that you can deduct both the interest and the depreciation up to the max of your cash inflows? I.e., you have a potential of about $382K ...
by Stormbringer
Sun Aug 19, 2018 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?
Replies: 158
Views: 13737

Re: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?

Here ya go. I rented my house out while my company sent me to graduate school. I hired a property manager to handle "everything". I get a call from the manager at 3am (why I use that time) saying that the tenants report sewage backed up, coming back out the drain for the washer and it's going to co...
by Stormbringer
Sun Aug 19, 2018 6:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?
Replies: 158
Views: 13737

Re: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?

tadamsmar wrote:
Sun Aug 19, 2018 2:23 am
But this does not include maintenance or opportunity costs for the down payment and assumes the property is always rented.
Yeah, that's a terrible omission. People always underestimate maintenance and vacancies. I budget about $1.50 per sq ft per year for maintenance, and 5% for vacancies.
by Stormbringer
Sat Aug 18, 2018 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?
Replies: 158
Views: 13737

Re: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?

Here are Charlie Munger's thoughts on investing in real estate: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KZtGpUl ... e=youtu.be

Warning: Language and witty comments.
by Stormbringer
Sat Aug 18, 2018 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?
Replies: 158
Views: 13737

Re: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?

Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment? It can be. Or it can ruin you. I starting buying properties when I was 24 years old, and 25 years later I own 15 buildings and a management company that manages a little over 3,800 residential units. I've done quite well, but I've made mor...
by Stormbringer
Thu Aug 16, 2018 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity 401(k) millionaires hits record high
Replies: 48
Views: 5715

Re: Fidelity 401(k) millionaires hits record high

The number of 401(k) millionaires seems like a pretty worthless statistic unless it broken down by age. Comparing the balance of a 25yo with a 60yo makes no sense at all. Also, it would be far more interesting to a see total balances across all retirement accounts per household, as many people have ...
by Stormbringer
Thu Aug 16, 2018 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity 401(k) millionaires hits record high
Replies: 48
Views: 5715

Re: Fidelity 401(k) millionaires hits record high

sc9182 wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 4:06 pm
Or, take a cue from Mr. Romney - you might as well overshoot this target by 100x times over!
He's 71 now, so those RMDs should be kicking in now. :D
by Stormbringer
Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New York Times--Vanguard Warns of Worsening Odds for the Economy and Markets
Replies: 67
Views: 10069

Re: New York Times--Vanguard Warns of Worsening Odds for the Economy and Markets

What's actionable is to review your asset allocation and rebalance if things have gotten out of whack.
by Stormbringer
Sat Aug 11, 2018 6:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jamie Dimon: Higher rates are coming
Replies: 42
Views: 6743

Re: Jamie Dimon: Higher rates are coming

Kevin M wrote:
Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:12 pm
If you're really worried about inflation, consider TIPS and I Bonds.
Aren't I-Bonds currently returning negative real returns when you factor in taxes?
by Stormbringer
Sat Aug 11, 2018 6:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels
Replies: 102
Views: 10963

Re: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels

There is a contagion risk with Turkey. It has $466 billion in foreign debt (about 80% dollars, 20% euros) vs about $850 billion GDP. With the Lira falling precipitously, this makes it really difficult to to service those loans. European banks are particularly exposed. As we all know, the key to good...
by Stormbringer
Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HBO Hard Knocks Clip - Compound Interest Clip
Replies: 10
Views: 1370

Re: HBO Hard Knocks Clip - Compound Interest Clip

What's sad is that a majority of these guys are going to be broke within a few years of retiring from the sport.
by Stormbringer
Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?
Replies: 64
Views: 7837

Re: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?

The S&P 500 hit an all-time high of 1,552 in March, 2000. It hit a new all-time high of 1,589 in April, 2013. Nasdaq took even longer.

So we've already had a lost decade (plus 3 years). I think people did fine.
by Stormbringer
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Prescription Price Shopping?
Replies: 37
Views: 2389

Re: Prescription Price Shopping?

I'm taking a somewhat pricey medication and my insurance covered a huge chunk (at least compared to what I see online) but I'm wondering if the price would vary much between CVS, Walgreen, Rite Aid, etc.? I take blood pressure pills. Walgreens charges $90 for 30 generic pills. Costco is $13 for 90 ...
by Stormbringer
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice needed on final house negotiations
Replies: 37
Views: 2492

Re: Advice needed on final house negotiations

Personally, I would seek a second appraisal from a company that is acceptable to the lender. You are correct that they are in a pickle if it comes back low as well.
by Stormbringer
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Absolute vs percentage saving
Replies: 21
Views: 2428

Re: Absolute vs percentage saving

Most of my internet research and posts on this forum suggest a percentage of income based savings rate. Although there is no consensus, 15-20% of gross income at a minimum seems to be the recommendation on the internet. I think there is a better way. The first thing I would do is create a retiremen...
by Stormbringer
Wed Aug 08, 2018 4:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Will you pay for your kids' college/graduate education?
Replies: 366
Views: 15474

Re: Will you pay for your kids' college/graduate education?

Yes. It wasn't her fault that we make too much for her to qualify for financial aid, which is mostly need-based. She just graduated in June, debt-free. It was pretty easy -- we put about $3K a year into a 529 plan for her, and encouraged her to attend a nearby state university. The total bill was le...
by Stormbringer
Wed Aug 08, 2018 2:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Landlord advice needed with section 8
Replies: 38
Views: 3746

Re: Landlord advice needed with section 8

I have had lots of section 8 tenants over the years. Generally speaking, my policy is that I charge market rents ... period. If the housing authority won't approve it, the tenant needs to find somewhere else to live. Sometimes they will pay, sometimes they will not. Also, there are different program...
by Stormbringer
Wed Aug 08, 2018 1:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IRS Guidance (prelim) on QBI deduction
Replies: 9
Views: 922

Re: IRS Guidance (prelim) on QBI deduction

It looks like the IRS is planning to adopt a very narrow and favorable definition of "reputation or skill": Thus, proposed §1.199A-5(b)(2)(xiv) limits the meaning of the “reputation or skill” clause to fact patterns in which the individual or RPE is engaged in the trade or business of: (1) receiving...
by Stormbringer
Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jamie Dimon: Higher rates are coming
Replies: 42
Views: 6743

Re: Jamie Dimon: Higher rates are coming

This sort of reminds me of 2009, when Warren Buffett warned that inflation was coming due to all the stimulus. Even for the brightest minds, these things can be difficult to predict. What are us mere mortals to do?
by Stormbringer
Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone
Replies: 217
Views: 13727

Re: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone

I've never been a big fan of this rule of thumb for several reasons: It doesn't account for pensions (and social security) and these are not easy to put a value on. It doesn't account for how well-funded your retirement account is. If you've "won the game" (Berstein) you can afford less risk in the ...
by Stormbringer
Fri Aug 03, 2018 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to calculate Real Estate in your Asset Allocation
Replies: 20
Views: 2279

Re: How to calculate Real Estate in your Asset Allocation

I don't consider it all. If I did, I would lump it with equities not bonds because of the variability in the income stream.
by Stormbringer
Fri Aug 03, 2018 3:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuity vs investment
Replies: 40
Views: 2649

Re: Annuity vs investment

It's worth listening to Robert Merton on "The New Retirement" podcast. https://www.newretirement.com/retirement/podcast-episode-11-bob-merton-fixing-retirement/ Thanks for that, I found it to be very interesting and confirms some of the thoughts I've had about focusing on retirement wealth rather t...
by Stormbringer
Thu Aug 02, 2018 8:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: First Home, quadplex???
Replies: 15
Views: 1508

Re: First Home, quadplex???

A four-unit property qualifies for really nice mortgage terms if you are willing to live there for a year. If it is your intent to become a landlord, you can buy up to ten of them, one per year and get 30-year fixed Fannie Mae financing on them all with a minimal down-payment.
by Stormbringer
Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuity vs investment
Replies: 40
Views: 2649

Re: Annuity vs investment

I don't really get why anyone would buy an annuity that isn't inflation adjusted. Say we go through a stretch like the 1970's -- your income stream would lose a huge amount of purchasing power and you would be too old to do much about it. An annuity is supposed to be insurance (not an investment) ag...
by Stormbringer
Mon Jul 30, 2018 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Achieva offers 4.2% 5 year IRA CD for $75k or >
Replies: 31
Views: 5614

Re: Achieva offers 4.2% 5 year IRA CD for $75k or >

That is really impressive given that the 5-year treasury is yielding 2.846% right now.

Any idea why this is limited to IRAs?
by Stormbringer
Thu Jul 26, 2018 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 17048

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

$1,250,000 in paid off real estate at 10% yielding $125,000 in sustainable cash. Liquidity here would come from HELOC or refinancing. Income 2.5x living expenses. (I think this is my #2 choice) You should really create a capital reserves account. Every month, divert some of the cash flow and put it...
by Stormbringer
Thu Jul 26, 2018 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 17048

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

That makes perfect sense. It's cash flow vs. net worth. That I can get my head around. Yes, so real estate lets you "extract" more without risking the "nest egg". If you want to frame it in that way. Since equity "nest egg size" must be sufficiently low to guard against volatility or the sequence o...
by Stormbringer
Thu Jul 26, 2018 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The volatility explosion of 1933?
Replies: 32
Views: 2033

Re: The volatility explosion of 1933?

leads me to wonder whether it is sensible to consider the stock market from 1870 to the present as being "all the same thing." I've always been slightly uncomfortable with the idea of comparing the stock market over long periods of time. It seems like there are substantial differences that make it ...
by Stormbringer
Thu Jul 26, 2018 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Bond Money, Flat Yield Curve, Rising Rates
Replies: 27
Views: 2352

New Bond Money, Flat Yield Curve, Rising Rates

I'm about to put some new money into bonds. Normally I would put it into an intermediate term ETF like SCHZ , which has a 6 year duration and a 3.10% yield. However, with the yield curve so flat and the Fed pushing up short-term rates, I'm wondering if I'm better off putting it into a shorter durati...
by Stormbringer
Mon Jul 23, 2018 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 17048

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

1. I don't doubt that the quotes higher rates of return are possible, but they don't take into account the time invested. Anyone claiming to easily get consistent 38%+ returns with very little effort deserves a great deal of skepticism, particularly when they don't show their math (i.e. a list of i...
by Stormbringer
Sat Jul 21, 2018 4:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best Source for Travel Perks (Cruise)
Replies: 3
Views: 598

Best Source for Travel Perks (Cruise)

Hi, We're going to book a cruise. I was looking at CostcoTravel, as they provide a Costco card as a park which is worth a few hundred dollars in shopping at the warehouse. If I book it through United Airlines, they would award a bunch of airline miles. If I book it directly with the cruise line ther...
by Stormbringer
Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 17048

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

I'm curious for all the real estate investors in this thread to tell how you did during 2008-2009 downturn? Well, on paper I lost a bunch for a few years. Leverage magnifies your losses as well as your gains. Fortunately I had sold about half my buildings in the years prior and was sitting on cash ...
by Stormbringer
Fri Jul 20, 2018 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 17048

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

knpstr wrote:
Fri Jul 20, 2018 8:59 am
Did you buy them back? If no, why not? Presumably it must have been a fantastic buying opportunity and you knew the property well.
No, I bought some other foreclosures instead that were better properties in a better neighborhood.