Search found 597 matches

by Stormbringer
Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Long / Hard To Become a Millionaire on Under $100k Income
Replies: 131
Views: 9725

Re: How Long / Hard To Become a Millionaire on Under $100k Income

I am wondering how hard it is to become a millionaire on an income of less than $100k? There are numerous ways to "be" a millionaire: The 401(k) millionaire has a million dollars in retirement accounts, but to access the money he needs to pay income taxes, and possibly even a tax penalty, so he is ...
by Stormbringer
Thu Nov 15, 2018 7:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: annuity with true COLA built in
Replies: 28
Views: 1933

Re: annuity with true COLA built in

montanagirl wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:07 pm
Does anyone actually offer one with a true COLA?
AIG
The Principal

I wouldn't be surprised if Northwesten Mutual has them, as my disability policy through them is indexed to CPI. But as far as I know you can't find anything online -- you need to talk to someone.
by Stormbringer
Thu Nov 15, 2018 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do BHs care about real asset value or stay in course?
Replies: 13
Views: 1106

Re: Do BHs care about real asset value or stay in course?

Do BHs care about real asset value or stay in course? even of we know there is a huge asset bubble? I think that people tend to focus on asset values too much. I think it is better to focus on the income those assets can produce. We live our lives based on monthly and yearly cash flows, not the mar...
by Stormbringer
Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities
Replies: 25
Views: 2453

Re: Annuities

If the global corporate economy is working in any reasonable sense, your stocks are going to be worth enough money to pay for things. If the global corporate economy isn't working, then the investment company you purchased the annuity from is likely to become insolvent or other such market issues. ...
by Stormbringer
Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson
Replies: 49
Views: 5818

Re: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson

How would you like to have retired at the peak of this market? Your bonds might have sustained you for a few years -- until they rolled over into new bonds making less than 2%, then 1%, and then -0.23%. :shock:

Image
by Stormbringer
Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities
Replies: 25
Views: 2453

Re: Annuities

I'm a big fan of having an inflation-adjusted SPIA to cover the income you need that isn't covered by Social Security. Trying to cover necessary expenses with investments that will probably work out (e.g. the 4% rule) is risky. Markets could crater and go Japanese for a few decades, interest rates c...
by Stormbringer
Sat Nov 10, 2018 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Selling I Bonds/Buying New I Bonds?
Replies: 9
Views: 1243

Re: Selling I Bonds/Buying New I Bonds?

You'll have to pay taxes on the accrued interest, which might negate any benefit of the higher rate.
by Stormbringer
Sat Nov 10, 2018 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?
Replies: 107
Views: 11915

Re: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?

I've been investing in RE since the mid-90s. From my perspective, my local market feels nothing like 2006. Home prices seem to be rising because the supply is so constrained. Nobody wants to sell their home with a 3% mortgage to buy a new one with a 5% mortgage. At the same time, buyers are panic bu...
by Stormbringer
Fri Nov 09, 2018 7:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett Books
Replies: 54
Views: 6195

Re: Warren Buffett Books

Rashen wrote:
Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:25 pm
FYI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tyv9uOozi7g
Yikes -- I don't recommend Peter Schiff. He has rather forceful opinions on just about everything, and is constantly predicting bubbles, crashes, and thinks everyone should plow their money into gold (which, of course, he sells).
by Stormbringer
Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good explanation of how bond funds don't get crushed in rising rate environment
Replies: 64
Views: 6177

Re: Good explanation of how bond funds don't get crushed in rising rate environment

Bonds get all of their return from "dividends," i.e. coupon interest payments, and basically nothing from capital appreciation. I totally get that from the perspective of buying a bond and holding it to maturity. But bonds funds don't seem to do that. They have turnover ratio's of > 50% per year, w...
by Stormbringer
Sun Nov 04, 2018 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on the 4% withdrawal rule
Replies: 66
Views: 4355

Re: Question on the 4% withdrawal rule

The 4% rule of thumb provides a fairly high probability (~95% when back-tested against historical markets) of not running out of money in a 30-year time horizon. If you die early, your kids get what's left. Alternatives that provide similar inflation-adjusted income levels include: a) A 30-year TIPs...
by Stormbringer
Sun Nov 04, 2018 6:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett Repurchases More Than $900 Million of Stock: is the stock market overpriced?
Replies: 10
Views: 2826

Re: Buffett Repurchases More Than $900 Million of Stock: is the stock market overpriced?

Expect to see more of this in the years ahead. From the 2014 letter to shareholders : Eventually – probably between ten and twenty years from now – Berkshire’s earnings and capital resources will reach a level that will not allow management to intelligently reinvest all of the company’s earnings. At...
by Stormbringer
Sat Nov 03, 2018 7:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: no dividends in index funds!
Replies: 95
Views: 9279

Re: no dividends in index funds!

A number of Berkshire shareholders – including some of my good friends – would like Berkshire to pay a cash dividend. It puzzles them that we relish the dividends we receive from most of the stocks that Berkshire owns, but pay out nothing ourselves. So let’s examine when dividends do and don’t make...
by Stormbringer
Fri Nov 02, 2018 12:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 45% increase in marketplace insurance
Replies: 72
Views: 4140

Re: 45% increase in marketplace insurance

I'm not really that close right now. I'm 56, and putting two kids through college, business owner. Reducing my income would cause bigger problems, and faster. For the time being I'm paying those subsidies, not collecting them. Two things: 1) The Department of Labor has now allowed Association Healt...
by Stormbringer
Fri Nov 02, 2018 8:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is an MBA worth it these days?
Replies: 53
Views: 6303

Re: Is an MBA worth it these days?

I started an executive MBA program while working full-time when I was 30. It was a really intense two year program, but I'm glad I did it. I'm self-employed, and some of the things I learned have been helpful. I'm not sure I could have justified it from a pure ROI perspective. My only regret is that...
by Stormbringer
Thu Nov 01, 2018 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2019 Retirement Contribution Limits Announced
Replies: 54
Views: 7025

2019 Retirement Contribution Limits Announced

The IRS released the limits for 2019.

Notable amounts are:

- 401(k) elective deferral amount increased from $18,500 to $19,000.
- Catch-up contributions unchanged at $6,000.
- IRA contributions increased from $5,500 to $6,000.

See the link for other limits.
by Stormbringer
Tue Oct 30, 2018 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the growing national debt a reason to diversify with international?
Replies: 33
Views: 3399

Re: Is the growing national debt a reason to diversify with international?

I suspect that the path of least resistance politically is going to be financial repression. Cutting spending or raising taxes to pay off debt is unpopular. A sneakier way to deal with the problem is to hold interest rates lower than the rate of inflation for a period of time, causing the real valu...
by Stormbringer
Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the growing national debt a reason to diversify with international?
Replies: 33
Views: 3399

Re: Is the growing national debt a reason to diversify with international?

I suspect that the path of least resistance politically is going to be financial repression. Cutting spending or raising taxes to pay off debt is unpopular. A sneakier way to deal with the problem is to hold interest rates lower than the rate of inflation for a period of time, causing the real value...
by Stormbringer
Sun Oct 28, 2018 9:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Girlfriend's Student Loans
Replies: 101
Views: 9264

Re: Girlfriend's Student Loans

Personally, I wouldn't pay anything towards it until you are married, but after that you might want to consider taking a page from the Dave Ramsey playbook on this one. I would do a cheap-o wedding and then pull out all the stops to get that debt paid off, including both of you getting second jobs (...
by Stormbringer
Sun Oct 28, 2018 9:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What A Deal! [Affordable Care Act policy costs]
Replies: 28
Views: 3994

Re: What A Deal!

Prescription drugs are a major reason healthcare costs so much in the United States. It's definitely worth shopping around. I was prescribed blood pressure pills last year. The brand name was $10 a pill. Walgreens sells 30 generic tablets for $90. Costco is $13.67 for 90 tablets -- so cheap that it...
by Stormbringer
Sat Oct 27, 2018 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grok's LMP-4: The 3-legged stool approach to retirement planning
Replies: 140
Views: 13985

Re: Grok's LMP-4: The 3-legged stool approach to retirement planning

just bumping this cause of all the market volatility... I find the notion of having to bite my nails during retirement because of a volatile stock market to be appalling. My current thinking on retirement is two buckets: a) Money I need. b) Money I want. Category (a) should be funded in as iron-cla...
by Stormbringer
Sat Oct 27, 2018 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle’s SP500 Returns Math
Replies: 21
Views: 3920

Re: Bogle’s SP500 Returns Math

For example, the dividend yield for the 90’s shows 3.2 That doesn't look like the correct dividend yield to me. Here is the year-by-year dividend yield of the 1990s: Year S&P Close Dividend Yield ---- --------- -------- ----- 1990 330.22 12.35 3.74% 1991 417.09 12.97 3.11% 1992 435.71 12.64 2.90% 1...
by Stormbringer
Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In retirement, when do you stop withdrawing from stocks in a downturn?
Replies: 141
Views: 9372

Re: In retirement, when do you stop withdrawing from stocks in a downturn?

When withdrawing from your portfolio, at what point do you stop taking from your stock funds when they're losing ground? The fact that you need to even ask this question illustrates what's wrong with our retirement system. A person who lives off a pension couldn't care less what the markets do, whe...
by Stormbringer
Sun Oct 21, 2018 6:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kitces link: The Spectrum of Financial Dependence and Independence
Replies: 30
Views: 3551

Re: Kitces link: The Spectrum of Financial Dependence and Independence

The problem with this list is that it tries to be a scale from 0 (panhandler) to 16 (wealthy philanthropist) but in between it's all over the place and people could be at multiple levels at the same time. For example, you could be very wealthy on paper, but very also illiquid and cash-strapped, putt...
by Stormbringer
Sat Oct 20, 2018 6:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The End of Indexing?
Replies: 33
Views: 4244

Re: The End of Indexing?

If the percentage of stocks under passive management does in fact decline over the next few decades, that is still a "so what?" Pray for that to happen. For a market to function properly, there needs to be price discovery. Someone has to determine the value of the individual components of the index...
by Stormbringer
Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If someone keeps 500K in two different FDIC insured bank accounts, 250K at each, are they still covered?
Replies: 8
Views: 1160

Re: If someone keeps 500K in two different FDIC insured bank accounts, 250K at each, are they still covered?

So I guess that means if someone wins $10 mil. in the lottery and wants to park it temporarily, they will need accounts at 40 banks. Right? For a temporary deposit in a healthy economy, that seems excessively paranoid. Just don't put it in some single-branch mom and pop bank. In any event, I don't ...
by Stormbringer
Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 198
Views: 10859

Re: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

Consider a couple with $300,000 to invest: Using a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds and the 4% rule for withdrawals, they can take $12,000 a year, and adjust for inflation each year. Maybe they won't run out of money, but it isn't guaranteed. Firecalc shows a 4-5% failure rate after 30 years t...
by Stormbringer
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you think of the Tesla craziness?
Replies: 25
Views: 2293

Re: What do you think of the Tesla craziness?

Tesla cars are cool. TSLA stock is uninvestable as far as I'm concerned. The stock is priced for perfection, yet the company has production issues, delivery issues, financial issues, and a brilliant but erratic CEO who can move the stock price by 10% with one dumb tweet.
by Stormbringer
Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1-year Treasury Bill auction
Replies: 57
Views: 5950

Re: 1-year Treasury Bill auction

The 1-year (52-week) Treasury Bill, price at auction today was 97.391333, with investment rate of 2.668%, which for me is TEY of 2.996%% and TEY-APY of 3.016%. This is about 52 basis points above my savings account at 2.50%, so a very nice yield premium for extending maturity by one year. This bill...
by Stormbringer
Tue Oct 09, 2018 10:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3
Replies: 295
Views: 19133

Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

I've contemplated buying a Model S. I even had 240V wired to my garage for charging last year (don't overlook this). I'm at least slightly concerned with TSLA's finances and Elon's bizarre behavior in recent months. If I'm going to sink money into a car, I want to make sure the company will still be...
by Stormbringer
Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 198
Views: 10859

Re: Alan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

librarianaire wrote:
Sun Oct 07, 2018 8:49 pm
When I was shopping for SPIAs recently (for one of my parents), the only company I could find that sells SPIAs with inflation riders was Principal. Is anyone in this forum aware of others?
I think it's easier to find ones with a fixed percentage annual increase (like 2%). Fidelity offers them.
by Stormbringer
Sun Oct 07, 2018 5:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why TIPS only for unexpected inflation?
Replies: 27
Views: 2626

Re: Why TIPS only for unexpected inflation?

Expected inflation is built into all marketable bonds through the price people are willing to pay for them. Unexpected inflation is protected by the periodic adjustment of principal and interest of TIPS. However, there are caveats: There is a lag between when inflation is measured and the TIPS is a...
by Stormbringer
Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 198
Views: 10859

Re: Alan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

You give the insurance company $100,000, and they give you $6000 a year (or whatever) for life. Very simple, very straightforward. Of course, the $100,000 is gone, and if you die 2 years later, it was a pretty bad deal. Maybe, but the alternative may have been that, using the 4% rule, you only got ...
by Stormbringer
Sat Oct 06, 2018 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 198
Views: 10859

Re: Alan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

Income is the wrong goal Ugh, this is terrible advice! Most people's lives are organized around income, not the current market value of our brokerage accounts. Our first and foremost retirement goal should be to secure a reliable stream of income that provides us with an acceptable standard of livi...
by Stormbringer
Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Enjoying your money before retirement
Replies: 65
Views: 6345

Re: Enjoying your money before retirement

The idea is, by the time I am 45 or 50 years old, I could have some significant stock growth in there that I could begin to sell off and enjoy. Yes, I’ll pay taxes. But I can enjoy some of this growth much before retirement! For many people, 45 or 50 is about when they hit their peak earning years,...
by Stormbringer
Wed Sep 26, 2018 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Exactly how do index funds work?
Replies: 15
Views: 1847

Re: Exactly how do index funds work?

For most bond index funds, there is very significant turnover of the holdings. While technically true, this is a little misleading. An intermediate bond fund (like Vanguard's BIV/VBIIX) tracks the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. 5–10 Year Government/Credit Float Adjusted Index. They buy bonds with 10 years...
by Stormbringer
Thu Sep 20, 2018 7:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Another mortgage repayment thread..
Replies: 30
Views: 2375

Re: Another mortgage repayment thread..

A decision not to sell something is also a decision to buy it. Except when you account for frictional costs, like capital gains taxes and commissions. I may not be willing to buy something for $100, but I'm also not willing to sell it for $70 (the proceeds after costs). Maybe I value it at $90, I w...
by Stormbringer
Thu Sep 20, 2018 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds vs. Individual Bonds: Can someone quanitfy?
Replies: 31
Views: 1990

Re: Bond Funds vs. Individual Bonds: Can someone quanitfy?

To be clear you want to compare: i) Buying a 10 year bond and holding to maturity ii) Buying a bond fund and holding it for 10 years? If so i can make you a graph These just seem like very, very different things: i) In the beginning, the portfolio has a duration of 10 years, and by the end it is a ...
by Stormbringer
Thu Sep 20, 2018 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds vs. Individual Bonds: Can someone quanitfy?
Replies: 31
Views: 1990

Re: Bond Funds vs. Individual Bonds: Can someone quanitfy?

Vanguard Total Bond Market holds 8486 individual bonds, and is constantly buying new ones as old ones mature. I don't think VBTLX generally holds bonds to maturity. They have a 54.6% turnover ratio , suggesting that they are constantly selling bonds at market value (i.e. a capital loss in a rising ...
by Stormbringer
Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How real is cyber risk?
Replies: 176
Views: 10106

Re: How real is cyber risk?

Complexity AND length are your two deterrents to keeping your password more secure. From a pure math perspective, you are correct. The problem is a human one: Password 1: sgKu72)f+13^%$z Password 2: When I was a boy I liked to eat hot dogs. The first one is impossible for anyone to remember, and is...
by Stormbringer
Sat Sep 15, 2018 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How am I doing? -- 32 y/o lawyer in Bay Area
Replies: 32
Views: 4430

Re: How am I doing? -- 32 y/o lawyer in Bay Area

hambusin wrote:
Fri Sep 14, 2018 5:22 pm
Rent: Currently 2k/month
Isn't that about what a broom closet costs in the Bay area?
by Stormbringer
Sat Sep 15, 2018 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Leasing Cars in Retirement
Replies: 98
Views: 7646

Re: Leasing Cars in Retirement

I think we're all aware that the most cost effective way to own a car is to buy one a few years old and then drive it into the ground. Anything more than that and you are transitioning from a necessity towards a luxury good. At that point it becomes a question of means and preferences.
by Stormbringer
Sat Sep 15, 2018 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pension alternatives
Replies: 41
Views: 3360

Re: Pension alternatives

I don't see an SPIA as useful to anybody that doesn't have a fairly big investment portfolio. If you've only saved 50k or 100k, you probably don't want to take money out of those savings to get an SPIA. I dunno. Consider a couple of modest means who are retiring with two small social security check...
by Stormbringer
Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pension alternatives
Replies: 41
Views: 3360

Re: Pension alternatives

Find me a SPIA that makes payouts based on 6-8% returns (i.e. what pensions use) and I bet a lot of people would find them appealing. Locking your money up with 3% returns like todays SPIAs offer isn't as remotely as appealing. When I check immediateannuities.com it shows the current joint life pay...
by Stormbringer
Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How real is cyber risk?
Replies: 176
Views: 10106

Re: How real is cyber risk?

How real is cyber risk? Well, my day job is as a software developer and I used to hack for fun back in high school and college when I was young and foolish, so here's my take on it... The risk is very real. As I see it, there are three broad categories of threats to be concerned with: System failur...
by Stormbringer
Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pension alternatives
Replies: 41
Views: 3360

Re: Pension alternatives

It's always puzzled me that people generally like pensions and social security, but turn their noses up at SPIAs. In the absence of a pension, I really like the idea of using SS + annuity to create an income floor to protect against bad times.
by Stormbringer
Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you 7 figure guys organize multiple accounts?
Replies: 164
Views: 12123

Re: How do you 7 figure guys organize multiple accounts?

I am currently using Quicken 2017, but I am soon going to apply two-factor authentication to all my accounts, so I'm not sure how well the one-click update will work with that. I'm really opposed to Quicken storing my credentials on their servers, so I avoid using the Web Connect functionality. I pr...
by Stormbringer
Mon Aug 27, 2018 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pensions and retirement savings rate
Replies: 30
Views: 2623

Re: Pensions and retirement savings rate

I am curious of your thoughts on the relationship between pensions and retirement savings. I have descided on using a 15% savings rate for retirement saving. My new government job has a pension (DB) that takes about 10% from each of my paycheck. Do you think I should only save an additional 5% to m...
by Stormbringer
Mon Aug 27, 2018 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any metrics that say US Stocks are *NOT* expensive?
Replies: 70
Views: 4822

Re: Any metrics that say US Stocks are *NOT* expensive?

Stocks may be a bit expensive, but bonds are even more expensive. At 2.8%, the 10-year is 35X earnings with no opportunity for growth.