Search found 156 matches

by hdas
Sun Sep 23, 2018 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tail Risk Protection
Replies: 15
Views: 1351

Re: Tail Risk Protection

Well, we finally have some numbers on the table. Here's a letter to investors from the incumbent hedge fund. And here are the reported results. http://i63.tinypic.com/wrezw7.png Some notes: 1. Only the shadow knows what is truly hidden behind those notes and disclosures in the final part of the repo...
by hdas
Sat Sep 22, 2018 12:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 3694
Views: 1058287

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

The Surrounding Game

Excellent complement to the AlphaGo one. Couldn't help but feel sad for humans. H
by hdas
Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buckingham Strategic Wealth #12 on Barron's
Replies: 13
Views: 1547

Re: Buckingham Strategic Wealth #12 on Barron's

Wonder how many forum members are donating their 1% to his firm. H
by hdas
Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 58
Views: 3729

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

not incorporating interest rate levels to these types of valuation 'analysis' render them worthless. H
by hdas
Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation for Minor ROTH IRAs for Kids Ages 15 & 13
Replies: 7
Views: 548

Re: Asset Allocation for Minor ROTH IRAs for Kids Ages 15 & 13

This thread should be good for discussing how to best (outcome, cost, safety) hold a leveraged long position in stocks for the long term. H
by hdas
Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robinhood Is Making Millions Selling Out Their Millennial Customers To High-Frequency Traders
Replies: 20
Views: 5522

Re: Robinhood Is Making Millions Selling Out Their Millennial Customers To High-Frequency Traders

Ameritrade not far behind: https://www.ft.com/content/96b92e56-2afd-3ca7-8206-fb858a6aa07a The court found that instead of requiring every single brokerage customer to prove harm from payment for order flow under the rule covering securities fraud, the losses for the entire class could be determined...
by hdas
Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VGT vs QQQ
Replies: 6
Views: 727

Re: VGT vs QQQ

Just make sure you ignore the day session nonsense:

Image

Cheers :greedy
by hdas
Thu Sep 20, 2018 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tail Risk Protection
Replies: 15
Views: 1351

Re: Tail Risk Protection

From the horse's mouth: https://youtu.be/PnqnGYQyzHg
by hdas
Thu Sep 20, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: YouTube Home workout vidoes
Replies: 25
Views: 1492

Re: Home workouts

Get a couple of kettle-bells. Look up the swing and other key exercises on YouTube. H
by hdas
Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?
Replies: 46
Views: 4966

Re: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?

Yes, I like commodities now. My portfolio looks something like this: 20% gold 15% crude oil (via long-dated futures) 15% emerging markets equities 10% non-US developed markets equities 25% long term bonds 15% cash The only thing missing from this portfolio is Emerging Market Debt in local currency....
by hdas
Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology
Replies: 27
Views: 1651

Re: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology

You guys should consider moving away from excel and learning python, pandas....it's excellent for financial data manipulation. H I'm planning to start playing with 'R', actually. Winter project. If you learn Python, you gain much more. https://spectrum.ieee.org/static/interactive-the-top-programmin...
by hdas
Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round
Replies: 53
Views: 4964

Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

Perhaps the title of the thread was too harsh, what he is saying is sensible, here's another interview: Dalio: I think that there are two key parts of investing. There is, what is your strategic asset allocation? And then, there's moving around, there's tactical bets in alpha. And I think the averag...
by hdas
Thu Sep 20, 2018 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VGT vs QQQ
Replies: 6
Views: 727

Re: VGT vs QQQ

Here's a visual of the sector changes:

Image

As for OP's question, I think QQQ is a fine fund to own. It has liquid futures too.

Cheers, :greedy
by hdas
Wed Sep 19, 2018 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of Hedge Funds
Replies: 19
Views: 1039

Re: In defense of Hedge Funds

How about survivorship bias? Good luck. Seems that's accounted for HFRI Asset Weighted Composite Index: The HFRI Asset Weighted Composite Index is a global, asset-weighted index comprised of over 1,500 single-manager funds that report to HFR Database. Constituent funds report monthly net of all fee...
by hdas
Wed Sep 19, 2018 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of Hedge Funds
Replies: 19
Views: 1039

Re: In defense of Hedge Funds

Thesaints wrote:
Wed Sep 19, 2018 4:16 pm
Is the graph to be interpreted by subtracting 0.04% per year from the S&P and 2+20 from the hedge fund ?
Seems like the HF index is net of fees, but the S&P is just the index. H
by hdas
Wed Sep 19, 2018 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of Hedge Funds
Replies: 19
Views: 1039

In defense of Hedge Funds

This article looks at the long term performance of hedge funds , after 28 years the score card doesn't look that bad, really. http://i65.tinypic.com/2w4llwn.jpg Some notes: - HFs a lot less volatile than SP as expected - Post 2008 HFs became very risk averse, however it's kind of their job to worry...
by hdas
Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology
Replies: 27
Views: 1651

Re: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology

You guys should consider moving away from excel and learning python, pandas....it's excellent for financial data manipulation. H
by hdas
Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
Replies: 33
Views: 5583

Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets

Managers Positioning

Image
by hdas
Tue Sep 18, 2018 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
Replies: 33
Views: 5583

Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets

A nice McKinsey report on emerging economies : HIGH-GROWTH EMERGING ECONOMIES AND THE COMPANIES THAT PROPEL THEM A few takeaways: 1. While the economy != stock market, in the long run both go together 2. Seems like country/region picking could be apt 3. Watch out for pro-growth government agenda is...
by hdas
Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trend Following failure
Replies: 7
Views: 720

Re: Trend Following failure

No, looks good. And over that same time period, ULPIX (red), 2X leveraged, daily-rebalanced S&P 500 fund looks better. And SPXL, yellow (3X leveraged, daily rebalanced S&P ETF) looks better yet. And your point is? You seem confused, those are leverage buy and hold, not evidence of alpha in Time ser...
by hdas
Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trend Following failure
Replies: 7
Views: 720

Re: Trend Following failure

Does this look like a disaster to you? https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2018&lastMonth=12&endDate=09%2F16%2F2018&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=...
by hdas
Mon Sep 17, 2018 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trend Following failure
Replies: 7
Views: 720

Trend Following failure

This article: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-big-hedge-fund-strategy-that-isnt-working-1535281201 highlights what has been my perception of the strategy, on one hand there’s a plethora of academic (marketing?) studies supporting momentum strategies, and on the other hand you can’t find HF, funds, ...
by hdas
Mon Sep 17, 2018 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 278
Views: 26605

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Nasdaq-100 is 250 handles below the bogleheads high, SP also below, but holding better........the boglehead euphoria signal still giving. :greedy

ps. to add insult to injury there's a fellow traveler boasting his 11% return in this thread.

Cheers
by hdas
Mon Sep 17, 2018 2:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: That Extravagant Thing You Do
Replies: 304
Views: 52487

Re: That Extravagant Thing You Do

Travel and artwork. :greedy
by hdas
Mon Sep 17, 2018 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Statistical Significance within 30 year projections
Replies: 2
Views: 304

Re: Statistical Significance within 30 year projections

Generally you can test differences with simulation or take your data and apply one of the standard stat tests. H
by hdas
Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Selling your home with Opendoor
Replies: 3
Views: 404

Selling your home with Opendoor

Wonder if ppl have experience with Opendoor service.

Seems like cost is about the same as real estate agent, with less hassle. I'm curious to hear real experiences from BH's

I found out about it here.

Thanks. H
by hdas
Sun Sep 16, 2018 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taylor's new book is #1
Replies: 32
Views: 5875

Re: Taylor's new book is #1

Contrarian indicator alert. H
by hdas
Sun Sep 16, 2018 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we expect TSM to keep growing?
Replies: 70
Views: 7463

Re: Why do we expect TSM to keep growing?

Technology......the book Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital by Carlota Perez offers a nice framework to understand the relationship. H
by hdas
Sun Sep 16, 2018 6:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3290
Views: 995452

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

The Frontiersman: A narrative by Allan W. Eckerd. Audiobook.
by hdas
Sun Sep 16, 2018 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alternative investments - Art, memorabilia, artifacts, antiques
Replies: 17
Views: 1147

Re: Alternative investments - Art, memorabilia, artifacts, antiques

We have some artwork, probably too much. Selling is a pain in the ass, hurts to give a % to auction houses. H
by hdas
Sun Sep 16, 2018 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the "best" factors?
Replies: 22
Views: 1637

Re: What are the "best" factors?

Bet Against Beta is really nice IMHO. There's really strong theoretical arguments for it (leveraged constrained investors bid up high risk / high return assets in lieu of levering up low risk / low return assets to an appropriate risk and reward), studies have shown it to pop up in many environment...
by hdas
Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round
Replies: 53
Views: 4964

Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

Given the timing of the comments, perhaps this was a promotional push for his new free pdf book on debt crisis. H
by hdas
Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DOW [Closing price on Sep 14, 2018]
Replies: 15
Views: 2640

Re: DOW [Closing price on Sep 14, 2018]

Yesterday the DOW closed at 26,154. Do you think it will top 26,616 from January 2018 by the end of 2018? Almost there You could put some numbers on the table and look at: - The expected value (baseline) for the total # days left. - Same as above but using the calendar days - Same as above but cond...
by hdas
Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round
Replies: 53
Views: 4964

Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

Another big hitter with solid track record expressing concern: The investor said he is now about 25 percent exposed to the stock market. Tepper called the market "fairly valued" if the U.S. doesn't impose more tariffs on Chinese goods. "I've taken down my exposure [to equities]," he said. "I'm just ...
by hdas
Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
Replies: 33
Views: 5583

Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets

For ppl that need help with a narrative that the future might be different than present China Is Overtaking the U.S. in Scientific Research Thirty years ago in December, the modern exchange of scholars between the U.S. and China began. Since then, Chinese academics have become the most prolific glob...
by hdas
Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round
Replies: 53
Views: 4964

Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

He's a gazillionaire, OK. But I've noticed that there are many of those who, despite their ability to accumulate great wealth, STILL have made many bad predictions...even a whole pattern of bad predictions. Bill Gross comes to mind, offhand. How's Dalio's track record? Probably one of the best ever...
by hdas
Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round
Replies: 53
Views: 4964

Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

We're not reading this the same way, or interpreting this the same way. I looked for where Dalio said not to buy US bonds, and I just can't find it. Now I can find his "All-Seasons" Portfolio that he gave to Anthony Robbins not too long ago that suggested a whopping 55% allocation to US treasury bo...
by hdas
Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round
Replies: 53
Views: 4964

Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

It’s interesting that some of his proposed bad scenarios are specially toxic to BogleHeads principles: Bonds are for safety No need for currency diversification away from dollar It won’t just be a debt problem this time around, he said, but rather a story about unfunded pension and health-care oblig...
by hdas
Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Yield Bond Futures
Replies: 1
Views: 291

High Yield Bond Futures

Perhaps of interest: Futures on the iBoxx® iShares® $ High Yield Corporate Bond Index (IBXXIBHY Index) are now available for trading on Cboe Futures Exchange, LLC (CFE). Designed to leverage the deep and liquid iShares® ETF ecosystem, the IBXXIBHY Index measures the performance of U.S. dollar-denomi...
by hdas
Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio
Replies: 128
Views: 26551

Re: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio

So, using August 31st FTSE numbers (in millions of USD): 29,273,216 - U.S. stocks - FTSE Global All-Cap index, U.S. breakdown 24,099,318 - ex U.S. stocks - FTSE Global All-Cap index minus U.S. 19,509,800 - U.S. bonds - FTSE US Broad Investment-Grade index 18,400,980 - ex U.S. bonds - FTSE World Bro...
by hdas
Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I found this informative about the next possible crisis
Replies: 22
Views: 4592

Re: I found this informative about the next possible crisis

:beer If it was a known issue, then it wouldn't lead to a crisis. Unknown issues are what lead to crises. Wow, u must be kidding.... I’ve been deeply involved in markets professionally only since 2006, so the only big crisis I know very well is the Great Recesión. From my vantage point at the time,...
by hdas
Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3290
Views: 995452

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital - The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages by Carlota Perez

Excellent so far. Here’s a competent precis https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/ ... cs-bubbles
by hdas
Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Put Options
Replies: 27
Views: 1158

Re: Put Options

What would be the better way to try and profit from a significant decline in AMZN? If interested in selling tech, perhaps short NQ futures (NQ 100) Top 10 Holdings (56.13% of Total Assets) Name % Assets Apple 12.53% Amazon.com 11.01% Microsoft Corp 9.74% Alphabet Inc Class C 4.90% Facebook Inc A 4....
by hdas
Sun Sep 09, 2018 2:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous
Replies: 152
Views: 16954

Re: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous

Your mom is an indication that we might be getting too confident. But so far, I haven't heard of people quitting their jobs to day trade as they did during the late 1990's. I am not seeing the market euphoria out there but certainly optimism has increased. Perhaps not wise too look for the exact sa...
by hdas
Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Edward Jones gets compensated
Replies: 7
Views: 1413

How Edward Jones gets compensated

Like one needs any more reasons, however this is very straight forward, from the horse’s mouth:

Link: https://www.edwardjones.com/images/LGL-8944-A_Final.pdf

Cheers, :greedy

Ps. Sorry if it has been posted be4, I did a cursory search and found nothing.
by hdas
Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your thoughts on VDET (Emerging Markets Government Bond)?
Replies: 9
Views: 666

Re: What's your thoughts on VDET (Emerging Markets Government Bond)?

You should ask: are eemm debt markets as fragile as they were in late 90's? yes or no...why?. There have been multiple reforms and evolution that make those markets deeper and not so susceptible to external shocks. For a current test of this hypothesis: The US central bank has been gradually removin...
by hdas
Fri Sep 07, 2018 5:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 206339

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

We should examine his ideas just as we examine anyone else's. Its remarkable how many ppl in this worthy forum pay attention to these personages. The sagacious marketers are prevalent and have been prevalent in the world of investment, nutrition, fitness, anti-aging. Why ppl should care about self-...
by hdas
Fri Sep 07, 2018 5:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are the stock market movements really random?
Replies: 37
Views: 2814

Re: Are the stock market movements really random?

Math/statistics aside: "Random" isn't an inherent property of measures. A coin flip seems "random", but if you have a high-speed camera hooked up to a computer program you can actually predict which way it'll land. No, "random" is merely shorthand for "there isn't a practical way to predict this pr...