Search found 602 matches

by hdas
Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling Fast and Buying Slow: Heuristics and Trading Performance of Institutional Investors
Replies: 0
Views: 116

Selling Fast and Buying Slow: Heuristics and Trading Performance of Institutional Investors

The discussion about selling positions seems relevant now as we just had our first 20 day Maxima since September . A fast and furious rally has rewarded the brave but has many wondering about paring down exposure. Here's an interesting paper looking at real data of professional money managers: Selli...
by hdas
Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Super Aggressive MF or ETFs?
Replies: 18
Views: 768

Re: Super Aggressive MF or ETFs?

Here's a list:

QQQ > Nasdaq100
PXLG > Large Growth
XBI > Biotech
MTUM > US Large/Mid Momentum

However, there's this thing called the low vol anomaly, you might want to check it out. Cheers :greedy
by hdas
Tue Jan 15, 2019 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: low volatility funds in a Roth IRA
Replies: 11
Views: 747

Re: low volatility funds in a Roth IRA

HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:46 am
Check out SMMV instead of XSLV.
What's the rationale for this preference? Thx
by hdas
Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Millionaire by 40 and How you Did it?
Replies: 90
Views: 9712

Re: Millionaire by 40 and How you Did it?

1 mil it’s not what it used to be. It’s around 8-10 million these days in order to be in the top 1% of the distribution in the US. Top 10% live pretty well too. Yes!. If only ppl were so rational. But relative wealth seems to be more important, as evidenced by the myriad threads that enable forum m...
by hdas
Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation of the 0.1%
Replies: 31
Views: 4094

Re: Asset Allocation of the 0.1%

Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:11 am
I'd be curious if any of these family office strategies beat a simple 60% VTSAX, 40% VBMFX portfolio. I've seen some of the college endowments fail miserably against these many years.
Here's Yale Endowment Asset Allocation:

Image

Cheers :greedy
by hdas
Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3513
Views: 1032885

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

The Quest
Energy, Security and the Remaking of the Modern World
By Daniel Yergin
by hdas
Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. economy could slip from top spot in 2020 and keep slipping
Replies: 25
Views: 1804

Re: U.S. economy could slip from top spot in 2020 and keep slipping

...Long Term GDP growth and stock markets correlate in the long term... Data? The MSCI plum-pudding chart in my posting above, showing negative correlation, is for fifty years , which is in "long-term" territory. Have at it . Look at the references of the article. Idk why this is controversial. Int...
by hdas
Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. economy could slip from top spot in 2020 and keep slipping
Replies: 25
Views: 1804

Re: U.S. economy could slip from top spot in 2020 and keep slipping

Miscellaneous points: >> Most ppl would do better if they read Graham Allison's book. China vs US is the topic of our times and the future. >> Long Term GDP growth and stock markets correlate in the long term >> We don't know how this will play out, the thucydidian tensions can develop in many diffe...
by hdas
Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Funds Overlap Tool
Replies: 9
Views: 729

Re: Funds Overlap Tool

F150HD wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:53 am
HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:22 am
Any overlap tools out there for that work with both mutual funds and etfs?
+1

have been looking for a tool like that.
If it doesn't exist. Seems like a good Forum project. Shouldn't be too complicated. :greedy
by hdas
Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P Futures accurate forecast of market opening?
Replies: 2
Views: 296

Re: S&P Futures accurate forecast of market opening?

Let me make it clearer for you: For all effects and purposes SP futures ARE the market.
Mind that SP futures settle at 15:15 central whereas index and SPY at 15:00 central. So you'll have that difference.

Money never sleeps. Cheers :greedy
by hdas
Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation of the 0.1%
Replies: 31
Views: 4094

Re: Asset Allocation of the 0.1%

I don't fully understand where the value-add for private equity is. But direct investment is essentially private equity. So I can see value there: you are essentially a private shark, looking for undervalued assets. Some observations: >> Here is a reference to Price Equity . >> I wonder what % of P...
by hdas
Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Betterment’s asset allocation
Replies: 3
Views: 547

Re: Betterment’s asset allocation

Yes. You have to factor that the forum is biased towards older folks and also the prevalent PTSD from the 2009 excursion to 666. Cheers :greedy
by hdas
Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: low volatility funds in a Roth IRA
Replies: 11
Views: 747

Re: low volatility funds in a Roth IRA

Yes, ROTH is better as VMNVX is fairly tax inefficient. I like low vol too. Good Luck. :greedy
by hdas
Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do futures really leverage exposure to?
Replies: 23
Views: 1230

Re: What do futures really leverage exposure to?

Somewhere hidden in that verbiage there’s an interesting discussion. However, you seem to be extremely confused and it will take long to untie that knot. Go to CME website and learn about futures or pick up Hull’s book. Do try to go to the primary sources. Cheers :greedy
by hdas
Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap tilting
Replies: 20
Views: 1162

Re: SMALL CAP TILTING

The S&P 600 has basically crushed the S&P 500 since inception: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/fund-performance?s=y&symbol=IJR&benchmark=VFINX&endDate=01%2F13%2F2019 Small value is another story. I recommend small blend, not small value. I like IJR as well. The issue with the cum_diff() vs SP50...
by hdas
Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation of the 0.1%
Replies: 31
Views: 4094

Asset Allocation of the 0.1%

The Economist has an article on Family Offices . In it, it presents the average (survey) Asset Allocation of Family Offices*** in 2018: http://i63.tinypic.com/ir5oub.png Quick takeaways: >> Generational wealth preservation diversifies a lot more than just (bond/stocks) >> Private Equity has displac...
by hdas
Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone beating the index instead of buying it?
Replies: 51
Views: 4992

Re: Anyone beating the index instead of buying it?

At the beginning of last year I set up a portfolio of large cap momentum. 20 stocks. I was doing slightly better than my benchmark (MTUM), the experiment lasted for about 3 months and closed it because it wasn’t worth my time. I still want to try it again in the future. Many ways to skin the cat Che...
by hdas
Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the disadvantages of taking all risk on equity side?
Replies: 63
Views: 3528

Re: What are the disadvantages of taking all risk on equity side?

The market timer in me says this is not a good time for taking term risk. A 5% loss in a bond fund annoys me because it seems inevitable, but a similar loss in equities seems like noise. I could be wrong of course. 1. It would annoy you less if it’s a LT bond 2. Just count!. There are ways to “equa...
by hdas
Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 124
Views: 6749

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

on a positive note, the new bond king :confused proclaims:
It’s a time to invest in emerging markets “relativistically,” Gundlach said. Emerging market stocks will beat the S&P 500 Index if the U.S. dollar weakens.
by hdas
Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 117
Views: 33435

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

Edit (9/5/2018) I took a closer look at estimating long-term standard deviation for each asset class (using Portfoliovisualizer), and the weight/loading to each of the 4 economic scenarios discussed in the Bridgewater "The All Weather Story", and realized that the overall weightings still weren't a...
by hdas
Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the disadvantages of taking all risk on equity side?
Replies: 63
Views: 3528

Re: What are the disadvantages of taking all risk on equity side?

The blue dots show a 60/40 portfolio where the "40" is in intermediate-term bonds. The red dots show the effect of changing that "40" to to cash (as represented by PortfolioVisualizer's CASHX asset, Treasury bills), which is basically what you are proposing to do. To the extent that you believe the...
by hdas
Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low-volatility ETFs have beaten S&P indexes while cutting risk
Replies: 12
Views: 1212

Re: Low-volatility ETFs have beaten S&P indexes while cutting risk

Yes, go ahead and pile on at the worst possible time. :twisted: :greedy Why would you say this was the worst possible time? The “normal vol” funds are all at cycle lows. Selling them now to move to a low vol fund locks in your losses and you won’t benefit from volatility to get you back to even. Ye...
by hdas
Sat Jan 12, 2019 7:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Millionaire by 40 and How you Did it?
Replies: 90
Views: 9712

Re: Millionaire by 40 and How you Did it?

1 mil it’s not what it used to be. It’s around 8-10 million these days in order to be in the top 1% of the distribution in the US.

Cheers :greedy
by hdas
Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Historical Data Can Comfort
Replies: 6
Views: 762

Re: Larry Swedroe: Historical Data Can Comfort

Strangely, I find myself in complete agreement with Mr. Swedroe. People should just look and see what the prospective returns are given the current conditions at any time. My only qualifier is that you don't need anybody to do this for you. Just beat the lethargy download the data and count. Cheers ...
by hdas
Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: January "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with Gus Sauter now available
Replies: 32
Views: 2236

Re: January "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with Gus Sauter now available

[...] I think there will likely always be opportunities to take advantage of behavioral finance. Thaler, Kahneman, Tversky, and others (plus our observations of market overreactions in both directions) show cognitive bias is well alive and kicking. [...] Didn't Thaler advise on a fund that was base...
by hdas
Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: January "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with Gus Sauter now available
Replies: 32
Views: 2236

Re: January "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with Gus Sauter now available

You will enjoy this special podcast with Gus Sauter , former Director and Chief Investment Officer of the Vanguard Group. Gus led the Quantitative Investing Group since joining Vanguard and head investment manager of Vanguard index funds from 1987 through 2003. He is also the creator of Vanguard's ...
by hdas
Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Covered Calls on Portfolio
Replies: 10
Views: 621

Re: Covered Calls on Portfolio

Interesting, It's in the wait list of projects.
One of the factors when deciding between holding SPY with ER 0.09% vs VOO with ER 0.04%. I think it's worth the higher expense ratio + liquid options. :greedy
by hdas
Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low-volatility ETFs have beaten S&P indexes while cutting risk
Replies: 12
Views: 1212

Re: Low-volatility ETFs have beaten S&P indexes while cutting risk

Yes, go ahead and pile on at the worst possible time. :twisted: :greedy
by hdas
Fri Jan 11, 2019 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are REITs better to purchase when interest rates are high or low?
Replies: 64
Views: 4260

Re: Are REITs better to purchase when interest rates are high or low?

I have a friend who said not to purchase REITs right now because interest rates are too high. It begs the question is there a better time to buy based on interest rates? When they are high or low? When are rates considered high vs. low? When is best? I know most will say do not time the market, but...
by hdas
Fri Jan 11, 2019 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Funds Overlap Tool
Replies: 9
Views: 729

Re: Funds Overlap Tool

a. EM Small Caps: EEMS vs DGS http://i66.tinypic.com/vimo0p.png I'd expect ALL of DGS to be overlapped with EEMS and the graphic shows only 53% overlap. Both have significant amounts of mid-cap stocks according to M*, so it is not just that. Perhaps it is different definitions of which countries ar...
by hdas
Fri Jan 11, 2019 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Funds Overlap Tool
Replies: 9
Views: 729

Funds Overlap Tool

I find this resource useful to add to one's toolkit. A few curated examples: 1. I like holding IJR (SP600) instead of the popular IJS (SP600-Value) http://i63.tinypic.com/20kq03s.png 2. I find this an interesting complementing pair US Low Vol (USMV) + US Momentum (MTUM) http://i66.tinypic.com/20u5zf...
by hdas
Thu Jan 10, 2019 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR Cuts Staff After a Bad Year (39 out of 41 funds down)
Replies: 31
Views: 2591

Re: AQR Cuts Staff After a Bad Year (39 out of 41 funds down)

People who are criticizing the change in strategy for the Risk Parity Fund (AQRIX): do you realize the AQR has two other funds with literally the same investment approach, according to their web site, that are not changing? Embedded later in the article that was linked, "The firm offers separately ...
by hdas
Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR Cuts Staff After a Bad Year (39 out of 41 funds down)
Replies: 31
Views: 2591

Re: AQR Cuts Staff After a Bad Year (39 out of 41 funds down)

I have as much schadenfreude as the next guy, but don't see this as a big deal, and probably wouldn't have taken any particular notice of it if some people hadn't been so enthusiastic about certain AQR funds in this forum. On any given day if stocks went down and QSPIX/QSPRX/QSPNX went up, we had a...
by hdas
Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR Cuts Staff After a Bad Year (39 out of 41 funds down)
Replies: 31
Views: 2591

Re: AQR Cuts Staff After a Bad Year

AQR’s U.S. mutual funds had outflows of $5 billion in the first 11 months of 2018, according to data from Morningstar Inc. Must be people who missed the part about sticking with a factor or alternative strategy through 10 or 20 years of under-performance. Probably thought they could make a quick bu...
by hdas
Thu Jan 10, 2019 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR Cuts Staff After a Bad Year (39 out of 41 funds down)
Replies: 31
Views: 2591

Re: AQR Cuts Staff After a Bad Year

This article has more details of the debacle: The firm-wide reductions will amount to a low single-digit percentage of the workforce, according to a person familiar with the matter. Of 41 AQR mutual funds, only two had positive returns over the past year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. AQ...
by hdas
Thu Jan 10, 2019 1:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Backtesting Results
Replies: 11
Views: 853

Re: Backtesting Results

Here’s an illuminating article about the general case of your query. Cheers :greedy
by hdas
Thu Jan 10, 2019 1:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio of Leveraged Exchange Traded Funds
Replies: 33
Views: 1731

Re: Portfolio of Leveraged Exchange Traded Funds

danielc wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:11 pm
alex_686 wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 6:25 pm
Some people get their equity exposure via futures. Each month they roll over to a new set of contracts. Is this active?
I would call that active.
There’s nothing active about that if you are just rolling your futures to maintain exposure. It’s as passive as it gets. Cheers :greedy
by hdas
Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR Cuts Staff After a Bad Year (39 out of 41 funds down)
Replies: 31
Views: 2591

AQR Cuts Staff After a Bad Year (39 out of 41 funds down)

Heads are rolling . Don't get your hopes up, I don't think they are lowering the outrageous fees any time soon. "At AQR, we have experienced record headcount growth over the past three years, including 2018", the company said in a statement. “Recent small reductions in headcount reflect the need to...
by hdas
Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current Drawdown Scorecard
Replies: 29
Views: 4378

Re: Current Drawdown Scorecard

Day 74 >> Magnificent 10 day bounce, we retraced ~50% of the whole drawdown. Some quick notes: 1. The impressive move it's going to encounter some technical/psychological resistance around the big round 2600 number. 2. The biggest 10 day winners in order: Biotech and US Growth (All sizes). Ppl in t...
by hdas
Wed Jan 09, 2019 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio of Leveraged Exchange Traded Funds
Replies: 33
Views: 1731

Re: Portfolio of Leveraged Exchange Traded Funds

This is the poor man’s version of portable alpha. Nothing wrong with it. Except the high cost and the effects of daily rebalancing. One suggests to wait til your notional is big enough to implement with futures.

PS- Perhaps even more interesting is the implementation with options.
by hdas
Wed Jan 09, 2019 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice needed for a young person
Replies: 7
Views: 367

Re: Advice needed for a young person

A friend's young son thinks that he can make a lot of money by trading stocks. What would be a good eye opener for him? Need a recommendation of books that can drive home the point to a young person that indexing is the way to go. He can make a lot of money trading stocks, but the odds are against ...
by hdas
Wed Jan 09, 2019 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Preparing for the bounce
Replies: 60
Views: 8947

Re: Preparing for the bounce

OP, good timing. Did you actually load up your portfolio with your recommendations? It was certainly a rather atypical Xmas. Writing it here and planning the execution was key in order to make big moves. Also, the forum is a superb sentiment barometer. I ended up concentrating most purchases on IJR...
by hdas
Wed Jan 09, 2019 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round
Replies: 101
Views: 11455

Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

I'm an obvious fan of Dalio, as a cursory search of my posts would prove. But that being said, for one to expect an open-arms reception to some of Dalio's ideas at Boglehead forums, is probably naive at best. The "many roads to Dublin" boast, if there ever was one, was most likely a reference to ac...
by hdas
Wed Jan 09, 2019 1:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recommendations for a 9mm handgun
Replies: 171
Views: 12531

Re: Recommendations for a 9mm handgun

Albeit most of the posts are just signaling. There's good info here. Thanks. Just bookmarking this thread. :greedy
by hdas
Wed Jan 09, 2019 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard to stop accepting purchases in Leveraged or Inverse mutual funds]
Replies: 145
Views: 8328

Re: [Vanguard to stop accepting purchases in Leveraged or Inverse mutual funds]

Here is an actionable question, for those of us who would like to implement a long term strategy using these leveraged ETFs, which brokerage is the best place to move to? Ideally one that would meet the following characteristics: 1. ~6 free trades per quarter (for rebalancing) 2. Allows IRAs (to el...
by hdas
Wed Jan 09, 2019 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Preparing for the bounce
Replies: 60
Views: 8947

Re: Preparing for the bounce

I believe we are going to get a nice bounce soon. Perhaps Friday was the low or if Monday is a bad day. So, in any case it's imminent. It's usually the case that the higher beta and more beaten down groups are going to bounce the hardest , so it's good to load up on those if possible (withing the c...
by hdas
Wed Jan 09, 2019 12:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Other Portfolios that aren't 3 fund
Replies: 55
Views: 6495

Re: Other Portfolios that aren't 3 fund

Pretty much every portfolio suggested in this thread is a version of the 3 fund portfolio. If you really want to explore other approaches, look for:

- Risk Parity
- Tail Risk Hedging
- Liability Matching
- Alpha/Absolute Return

Cheers :greedy
by hdas
Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3513
Views: 1032885

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

High Returns from Low Risk. Pim Van Vilet.

Mediocre.