Search found 125 matches

by Patzer
Wed Feb 26, 2020 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 583
Views: 41931

Re: Coronavirus and the market

It just doesn’t make sense. The spanish flu wiped out millions and had literally no impact on stocks. This market is totally irrational. Information travels differently in 2020 than in 1918, and our society is very different. People will be flying less, taking less cruises, eating out less, going t...
by Patzer
Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?
Replies: 127
Views: 8679

Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Corona virus has kills about 2700 people worldwide... The common flu has killed 16,000 people in the US alone just the season so far... You should judge your risk level versus your travel fun... You are comparing an established disease to the beginning of a pandemic. COVID-19 has killed 2,711 out o...
by Patzer
Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?
Replies: 127
Views: 8679

Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

So I was about to buy tickets to UK/Ireland for a vacation. Had found great business class tickets for the dates in June. And then I saw the story about Italy now having issues and virus is spreading. So we decided to hold off and see how it develops. We are already going to Italy/Europe in May. So...
by Patzer
Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 14013
Views: 2289363

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Don't forget EVERY year experts tell us there's a new virus that is going to kill 100 million and so far it has never panned out. One day it will. But the experts have been wrong every year so far. Considering every year we hear about the new virus that's going to kill 100 million people and everyo...
by Patzer
Mon Feb 24, 2020 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 14013
Views: 2289363

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

i wonder if this is a black swan vs just a crash. perhaps it is better to pull back now rather than wait. Pandemics are far from a black swan. It's baked into the pie, along with viruses and bacteria. It's not baked into the pie. People are bad at estimating the impact of rare events. There is a st...
by Patzer
Mon Feb 24, 2020 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 14013
Views: 2289363

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

i wonder if this is a black swan vs just a crash. perhaps it is better to pull back now rather than wait. Pandemics are far from a black swan. It's baked into the pie, along with viruses and bacteria. It's not baked into the pie. People are bad at estimating the impact of rare events. Over the last...
by Patzer
Tue Oct 22, 2019 3:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Emergency Fund - why not VTSAX?
Replies: 52
Views: 5169

Re: Emergency Fund - why not VSTAX?

I don't think it is okay to hold your emergency fund in stocks. Even if you hold 2x you are putting yourself in a situation when you have to sell stocks when the market is at it's bottom . Assets are assets. Why would it be better to remove assets from a savings account rather than a stock index fu...
by Patzer
Tue Oct 22, 2019 1:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Emergency Fund - why not VTSAX?
Replies: 52
Views: 5169

Re: Emergency Fund - why not VSTAX?

I don't think it is okay to hold your emergency fund in stocks. Even if you hold 2x you are putting yourself in a situation when you have to sell stocks when the market is at it's bottom.
by Patzer
Thu Oct 10, 2019 3:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you carry your passport with you during international travel?
Replies: 110
Views: 10533

Re: Do you carry your passport with you during international travel?

I carry my passport card on me (land and sea entry only) and leave my passport in the hotel safe.

I like having them in separate places.

The card is only $20 extra when ordering your passport.
by Patzer
Tue Sep 24, 2019 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond bubble
Replies: 22
Views: 2153

Re: Bond bubble

Rates are low by historical standards. They may go lower, or they may go higher. The economy may have changed such that low bond yields are the future because rampant inflation is no longer a worry due to issues like transparent pricing etc. No one knows. Interesting. I am by no means and expert, b...
by Patzer
Thu Jun 27, 2019 6:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help choose COLA Pension or Not
Replies: 25
Views: 1548

Re: Help choose COLA Pension or Not

#Cruncher wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:29 pm
If I use 2.4% instead of 4.0% the breakeven in present values (PV) drops from 33 years to about 30. I don't know how you get the 34 years.
I didn't save the calculation I did. Perhaps I made an error, I will amend my post.
by Patzer
Thu Jun 27, 2019 6:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help choose COLA Pension or Not
Replies: 25
Views: 1548

Re: Help choose COLA Pension or Not

This is the wrong way of thinking about the problem. Using this logic, everyone should take the lump sum and invest 60/40. It seems to me that you did not read the original post. There is no lump sum choice. And if you are going to use averages, use a sample that applies. His expected lifespan isn'...
by Patzer
Wed Jun 26, 2019 7:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help choose COLA Pension or Not
Replies: 25
Views: 1548

Re: Help choose COLA Pension or Not

What discount rate are you assuming, Patzer? With 4% I get close to your 34 year breakeven. The following table shows the difference in present value (PV) of the two options with several inflation rates from 1.0% to 6.0% if the pension runs from 10 to 35 years. It shows that with 2.31% inflation th...
by Patzer
Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help choose COLA Pension or Not
Replies: 25
Views: 1548

Re: Help choose COLA Pension or Not

My father is 64 soon to be 65. He will be eligible for his pension at age 65 beginning Sept. 1, 2019. a) $2650 per month beginning Sept. 1, 2019. No cost of living adjustment. b) $1946 per month beginning Sept. 1, 2019 with Cost of living adjustment. The COLA is this.. It is tied to the Consumer Pr...
by Patzer
Sat Jun 15, 2019 2:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What lifestyle creep made you happier?
Replies: 412
Views: 48155

Re: What lifestyle creep made you happier?

New Kitchen Cabinets and Countertops. Even got the fancier more expensive stone. Was really reluctant to do it, but my significant other wanted it. Turns out I love it, and even a year later, I still smile every time I walk into the kitchen. Laptop with a Solid State Drive. The old one used to frust...
by Patzer
Mon Jun 10, 2019 3:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are You Dumping Netflix?
Replies: 218
Views: 19406

Re: Are You Dumping Netflix?

I still like Netflix, but I seem to spend more and more time on Amazon Prime. Amazon also has the option for me to add Britbox and Acorn, paying for them via Amazon. I might also be signing up for PBS Masterpiece after I use the 7 day trial to watch Unforgotten. I’m also not sure about HBO and Show...
by Patzer
Fri May 31, 2019 9:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to First Invest HSA Contribution $3,500
Replies: 11
Views: 799

Re: How to First Invest HSA Contribution $3,500

I keep $2,000 in my HSA collecting 1.5% Interest, to be available for medical expenses. I might be in the minority here, but I don't mind pulling from the HSA for medical expenses to get the triple tax benefit (no tax going in, no tax accruing interest, no tax when spent). The remainder is invested ...
by Patzer
Fri May 31, 2019 9:04 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rethinking Individual Stocks
Replies: 76
Views: 8239

Re: Rethinking Individual Stocks

There is a tiny subset of investors for whom there is another use case of individual stocks, namely investors who want to target a particular segment of equities for which there is no acceptable off-the-shelf index fund. Example: I decided that allocating a portion of my US equites to utility stock...
by Patzer
Fri May 31, 2019 7:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rethinking Individual Stocks
Replies: 76
Views: 8239

Re: Rethinking Individual Stocks

A random basket of 50 stocks from the S&P 500 should perform the same as the S&P 500 over an infinite time horizon. That said, it will have more volatility/risk, so it's risk adjusted return will be lower, and we don't have an infinite time horizon for things to balance out. SCHB holds 2000 stocks a...
by Patzer
Mon May 13, 2019 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on Schwab
Replies: 37
Views: 4774

Re: Thoughts on Schwab

I have accounts at Schwab, Fidelity, and TDA.
I like Schwab's platform and customer service the most out of those three.

I don't have a Vanguard account, so I can't compare to that.
by Patzer
Thu May 02, 2019 11:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Giving two week's notice before stock options vest
Replies: 91
Views: 7334

Re: Giving two week's notice before stock options vest

Push back your start date 1 week. They already invested a lot of time and energy into finding you and they aren't going to give that up just because they have to wait 1 more week. Vest, Sell, and then Give 7 days notice. That way your vest is guaranteed, and 7 days is enough to not burn bridges, may...
by Patzer
Thu May 02, 2019 11:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Birthday party- No gifts
Replies: 42
Views: 3619

Re: Birthday party- No gifts

I and most people in my social circle always say no gifts for parties. Even have been to some weddings that said that. We are all doing well and don't need more stuff. Also, we don't want it to be a challenge for anyone who might be short on cash. I usually bring a bottle of wine, since it feels wei...
by Patzer
Sat Apr 13, 2019 9:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: One-more-year - am I done or not?
Replies: 50
Views: 7978

Re: One-more-year - am I done or not?

You have plenty to retire. I don't think you should OMY, because clearly you don't enjoy it and don't need the money. My question is: How much of a change in tempo do you want? Are you really ready to go from maximum effort to doing nothing? What if you shifted from full time to a part-time consulta...
by Patzer
Sat Apr 13, 2019 7:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early retirement simulation
Replies: 2
Views: 492

Re: Early retirement simulation

Great site to run a lot of different scenarios quickly and help you narrow down to a few possible approaches, before using something more detailed to fully model out retirement.

https://www.firecalc.com
by Patzer
Sat Apr 13, 2019 7:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I semi-retire now?
Replies: 138
Views: 14070

Re: Can I semi-retire now?

Thanks for your comments on taxes, subsidies and social security. I edited my original post to indicate that while my wife will be eligible for spousal social security benefits, as a CA public school teacher, she does not pay into the social security system. So she is not eligible for benefits on h...
by Patzer
Fri Apr 12, 2019 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indexing on leverage?
Replies: 31
Views: 2096

Re: Indexing on leverage?

What's the general consensus of doing this? Since over the long term the index should go up wouldn't it be better to buy more using leverage? Is it that much different to buying a house with a mortgage.. (apart from possible margin calls) From my IPS: Never buy on Margin (Refer to USA 1929, Japan 1...
by Patzer
Fri Apr 12, 2019 12:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I semi-retire now?
Replies: 138
Views: 14070

Re: Can I semi-retire now?

Can this work? Or are we cutting it too close? My math on a 60/40 @1.52M is that you can expect ~45.6K in after tax return, inflation adjusted, forever, due to your low tax bracket in retirement, while preserving your principal's inflation adjusted value. Sounds like you might need about 55K to cov...
by Patzer
Sat Mar 30, 2019 10:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Passed Over For Promotion for Being too Good at My Job
Replies: 55
Views: 6146

Re: Passed Over For Promotion for Being too Good at My Job

Thanks to everyone for the feedback. Answers to common questions: How am I sure I am good? #1 Rank in KPIs. Max score in annual reviews. Company awards. Would I be a good manager? I have done it at a previous employer and was good, but it got old after many years. Do I really want to be a manager? M...
by Patzer
Fri Mar 29, 2019 6:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Passed Over For Promotion for Being too Good at My Job
Replies: 55
Views: 6146

Re: Passed Over For Promotion for Being too Good at My Job

How much does continuing to climb upwards matter to you, aside from pay? The upward climb doesn't matter to me other than the fact it usually involves new challenges, which I do like. I don't care about titles or offices. The money is nice, but only as a tool to retiring earlier, I won't buy more s...
by Patzer
Fri Mar 29, 2019 5:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Passed Over For Promotion for Being too Good at My Job
Replies: 55
Views: 6146

Passed Over For Promotion for Being too Good at My Job

There are about 20 comparable rolls to mine at my company. I am the best by a large margin. My productivity is 50% higher than the 2nd best person, and about 150% higher than the average. I have succeeded at many high profile projects and have a decade of management experience, but am not a manager ...
by Patzer
Fri Mar 08, 2019 12:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Things to do in Maine
Replies: 72
Views: 7266

Re: Things to do in Maine

See: Stop in Camden on the way up. Stay at the Camden Riverhouse Hotel & Inn (https://www.camdenmaine.com/rooms/). It is a 35 room hotel, but feels like a Bed & Breakfast Inn. Camden is a sleepy shoreline town. If you could distill Maine into a single location, I think Camden perfectly captures it's...
by Patzer
Tue Feb 19, 2019 12:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Were you 100% debt free at retirement
Replies: 163
Views: 12176

Re: Were you 100% debt free at retirement

Not retired yet, but I became debt free at 35 and intend to be the rest of my life.
When you have no debt, it becomes super easy to save a bunch of money for a car/renovation/vacation/etc.
by Patzer
Fri Feb 01, 2019 3:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Making a 3.8 million deposit
Replies: 96
Views: 11414

Re: Making a 3.8 million deposit

1. Sending a large amount of money over the internet to a faceless bank. It will be hard to hit the transfer button. What do I have to worry about? 2. These would be new accounts and new money. Will there be red flags from the banks? Maybe I should call and talk to a person on the phone? 3. I want ...
by Patzer
Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is Cirque du Soleil worth it?
Replies: 33
Views: 3032

Re: Is Cirque du Soleil worth it?

It depends on the show. Front row tickets at Ka at the MGM Grand was the best entertainment experience I have had in my lifetime and while I paid about $200 per ticket, it was easily worth $500. Alegria was fun. I paid about $75 per ticket for about 20 rows back, and it was worth about $75. Corteo l...
by Patzer
Tue Jan 22, 2019 12:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is it ever worth purchasing an extended warranty for a vehicle?
Replies: 90
Views: 5827

Re: Is it ever worth purchasing an extended warranty for a vehicle?

earlier in my life I used to pay for full coverage insurance on my car(just liability now), and a car extended warranty, because those costs would have been disruptive at that time. Why is the slight possibility of a $1500 repair during a narrow timeframe considered "disruptive," but forking over t...
by Patzer
Tue Jan 22, 2019 12:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are You Dumping Netflix?
Replies: 218
Views: 19406

Re: Are You Dumping Netflix?

I think Netflix is still a steal, at least for me. My value proposition of all viewing services: Service - Usage - Cost - Value Netflix - 70% - $14 = $0.2/% Amazon Prime - 5% - $5 = $1/% (Attributing half the cost of shipping and half to video) Hulu Live - 20% - $40 = $2/% HBO - 5% - $15 = $3/% I re...
by Patzer
Tue Jan 22, 2019 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is it ever worth purchasing an extended warranty for a vehicle?
Replies: 90
Views: 5827

Re: Is it ever worth purchasing an extended warranty for a vehicle?

All insurance and warranties should be assumed to have a net negative expected value, or why would they sell them. The question of whether or not to buy them has to do with the risk associated with you having to absorb the cost of the potential issue that is insured against. If you could pay said co...
by Patzer
Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are index fund managers forced to sell stocks when incurring greater trading?
Replies: 28
Views: 2303

Re: Are index fund managers forced to sell stocks when incurring greater trading?

Yahoo! finance charts are not total return (growth) charts and don't include dividend reinvestment. Thank you! That is the issue with both the Schwab and the Yahoo charts, and makes sense. The ETF and the Mutual Fund have the same dividend from earnings, but the mutual fund also has Capital gains d...
by Patzer
Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are index fund managers forced to sell stocks when incurring greater trading?
Replies: 28
Views: 2303

Re: Are index fund managers forced to sell stocks when incurring greater trading?

I am looking at Chart comparisons of the performance. We've shared links above showing a direct comparison, where the ETF lags. I can't recreate your numbers showing the ETF outperformance. If you can recreate this comparison so that we can see it, that'd be great. Here is a link to an IMGUR from m...
by Patzer
Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are index fund managers forced to sell stocks when incurring greater trading?
Replies: 28
Views: 2303

Re: Are index fund managers forced to sell stocks when incurring greater trading?

Where are you seeing these results? Second, if you choose to look only at the last five years, you will see that the average total return of SPY, the ETF, was 8.37%, while that of FXAIX, the mutual fund was 8.48%. The index return was 8.49%. The ETF lagged the index by 0.12%, the fund by only 8.48%...
by Patzer
Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are index fund managers forced to sell stocks when incurring greater trading?
Replies: 28
Views: 2303

Re: Are index fund managers forced to sell stocks when incurring greater trading?

If this was a "major advantage", ETFs tracking the same index as a mutual fund would outperform over time. Do you see ETFs outperforming similarly indexed mutual funds? Yes, for example. S&P 500 ETF (SPY 0.0945% Expense Fee) has outperformed S&P Mutual Fund (FXAIX 0.015% Expense Fee) by a total 2.2...
by Patzer
Tue Jan 08, 2019 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks with price/book < 1
Replies: 1
Views: 284

Re: Stocks with price/book < 1

Fascinating read, thank you for sharing. Might be hard to be take action on this though, since most of us invest in diversified Mutual Funds/ETFs, and I don't believe there is one available for this. On Table 4, every BTM > 1 decile has a better Sharpe Ratio than any of BTM ≤ 1 deciles, which I foun...
by Patzer
Tue Jan 08, 2019 3:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you take inheritance into account when calculating net worth?
Replies: 68
Views: 5923

Re: Do you take inheritance into account when calculating net worth?

No, a few examples: 1. A family member gave all his wealth away to some con artists in his last few years. 2. A friend's parents planned to give them a large inheritance, told him that, and even went as far as to share their investment statements with him. Many years have passed, they are still aliv...
by Patzer
Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Deleted]
Replies: 176
Views: 26781

Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

In general, the ways to hedge different types of risks are: Deflation Risk: Hedged with Cash and assets that produce Cash(Bonds) Inflation Risk: Hedged with Stocks, with tangible assets(house, land, gold), non-USD Cash/Bonds Hyperinflation/Systematic Failure Risk: Hedged with tangible assets(house, ...
by Patzer
Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What Do You Spend The Most On Annually?
Replies: 153
Views: 9396

Re: What Do You Spend The Most On Annually?

I have tracked every purchase I make for the last 16 years and sort them into 22 annual buckets, which I give maximum allocations to. I usually under spend in most categories and roll the excess to savings and investments towards the end of the year. My top 5 after taxes for 2018: Savings & Investme...
by Patzer
Thu Jan 03, 2019 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 14013
Views: 2289363

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Hiwatter wrote:
Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:43 pm
Anyone else doing a Roth IRA Contribution today on Total Stock Market?
Waiting on the money to appear in the account. Should be buying my full 2019 Roth IRA allocation tomorrow.
by Patzer
Fri Dec 21, 2018 11:47 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite Purchase of 2018?
Replies: 255
Views: 22210

Re: Favorite Purchase of 2018?

New countertops, so gorgeous. :)
by Patzer
Thu Dec 20, 2018 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)
Replies: 255
Views: 25770

Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

I have built up some cash on the side and was looking to expand my investment portfolio by 25%. I upped them 12% 2 weeks ago, that stings a bit, but I have no intention to sell it anytime soon, so long term it should pay off. Added another 2% yesterday. Going to take a breather for a few weeks and t...
by Patzer
Sat Dec 15, 2018 1:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is a New Car Okay if Driven 15+ Years?
Replies: 91
Views: 8276

Re: Is a New Car Okay if Driven 15+ Years?

Well known personal finance advice is to buy cars USED instead of NEW, but does this advice still apply when the plan is to drive a car as long as possible (15-20+ years)? Due to a growing family, we are saving for a minivan. My husband is of the mindset that we should purchase an AWD Sienna since ...
by Patzer
Sat Dec 15, 2018 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Robinhood to offer 3% cash management program, not a bank account]
Replies: 153
Views: 12210

Re: [Robinhood to offer 3% cash management program, not a bank account]

Robinhood has revamped the product. It is now called a "Cash Management" account on their website, and gives no details of how it will work. It has deleted all public announcements that referred to it as a Checking/Savings Account. The posted the following statement: "We’re excited and humbled by th...