Search found 555 matches

by Hemispheres
Fri Aug 19, 2011 12:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How painful were U.S. recessions in the modern era?
Replies: 35
Views: 4264

We've always been fortunate in the modern recessions, probably because my parents grew up in the Great Depression and shunned extravagant living. I was an airhead teen in the 70s, so I wasn't really aware of what was going on. The first recession I noticed was the TX Oil Boom's crash in the early 19...
by Hemispheres
Wed Aug 10, 2011 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Already Down 435 points today
Replies: 72
Views: 8533

Things appeared to be unravelling and you never knew what company/government/mmf was going to explode next. Doesn't feel the same today. It feels worse. Last time while confidence in companies and banks was being lost, the government stood tall as a backstop. The big systemic threat was from the po...
by Hemispheres
Wed Aug 10, 2011 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Already Down 435 points today
Replies: 72
Views: 8533

Yep, Sep-Oct08 was bad ... in a scary way. Things appeared to be unravelling and you never knew what company/government/mmf was going to explode next. Doesn't feel the same today. What's funny is that my own rinky-dink one-man company is seeing a sudden decrease in orders, just like in late Sep08. T...
by Hemispheres
Mon Aug 08, 2011 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Black Monday?
Replies: 158
Views: 21314

grayfox wrote:I predict that the market will start going up at 3PM when the PPT gets out of their meeting.
Bernanke's credit card was denied (hit his limit) when he tried to purchase fuel for his helicopter! No PPT for this market...
by Hemispheres
Mon Aug 08, 2011 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else buy equities today?
Replies: 102
Views: 12351

Thought about it ... then I remembered buying some in August 2008, September 2008, November 2008! Lucked out in March 2009 (forced buying).
by Hemispheres
Mon Aug 08, 2011 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: thoughts on the impact of the downgrade on the bond marke
Replies: 12
Views: 1580

Doesn't this need to be analyzed with the context included? For example: 1) When was the last time a "world's reserve currency" country's rating was downgraded and what happened to it afterwards? 2) How did Canada's, Japan's, etc stock market behave prior to the downgrade? Had they already fallen by...
by Hemispheres
Sat Jul 23, 2011 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market cap as % of GDP
Replies: 35
Views: 4274

Isn't there always an implied (GDP * one year) when doing these sorts of calculations? That returns dollars, making percent valid units for the overall equation.
by Hemispheres
Tue Mar 29, 2011 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where is Small Hi and Neverknow.
Replies: 127
Views: 17505

I knew this forum would be well maintained when the mods had concerns about my initial username: WT*. I signed up in Sep 2008 when things were going downhill and my username reflected my confusion at the time. It was appropriate and the mods were very polite in expressing their concerns. The second ...
by Hemispheres
Tue Sep 21, 2010 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Recession Officially Ended in June 2009: NBER
Replies: 65
Views: 8132

Re: The Recession Officially Ended in June 2009: NBER

I have talked to small business owners recently and they all are making cautious plans to expand. I see more and more people at the gym for which they pay a membership fee. I see new restaurants opening in the last few months. These are just little things I didn't see in the past year. So I don't t...
by Hemispheres
Sun Jul 11, 2010 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your worst investing mistake
Replies: 145
Views: 37188

Easy. I had the chance to buy Dell stock in the mid-1980s, before it went public. There's no telling how much that would have been worth 10 years later (although I probably would have sold well before then). The worst single investment: 100% loss on WWTK in 1993 or so. Can't remember how much that j...
by Hemispheres
Sat May 22, 2010 11:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ (Zweig) - Legendary Investor Is More Worried Than Ever
Replies: 29
Views: 4736

When I read this article earlier today, the main thought I had was: As we get older, we get scared of everything. Well, part of that is because the longer you live, the more times you've had your *** kicked by situations. Makes you a little gun-shy! Plus, you tired of pulling your rear end out of t...
by Hemispheres
Wed May 19, 2010 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Scheme
Replies: 46
Views: 6258

One last thing. Although you said he was a good friend, IMO, you should consider the possibility that he is effectively in on the scheme and you were the mark. Perhaps these guys pay a finders fee. JW An ugly possibility. Note that Gregory Laser was the "sales agent" in the SEC case I linked earlie...
by Hemispheres
Tue May 18, 2010 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Scheme
Replies: 46
Views: 6258

I would much more comfortable with this if he was investing in a Nigerian ad placement company. Once I saw "Florida", the word SCAM flashed in front of my eyes...

Edit: I thought it sounded like an old time Ponzi scheme:
http://www.sec.gov/litigation/complaint ... p21338.pdf
by Hemispheres
Thu May 13, 2010 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to argue that stock market is not totally fabricated...
Replies: 56
Views: 8318

... It's possible to imagine a transition to societies that are less materialstic, more sustainable, and don't consider digging things out of the ground to be "growth", but I would think this would constrain how much economic growth is really possible, no matter how you define it. And frankly, whil...
by Hemispheres
Fri May 07, 2010 12:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nasdaq to cancel trades
Replies: 28
Views: 4629

Why don't they cancel all trades between 2:30 and 3:00? They were clearly in error.

I wonder how many people on Wall Street are pulling all-nighters trying to unravel this mess...
by Hemispheres
Fri May 07, 2010 12:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WOW - The Dow is Crashing - down 900 points so far today!
Replies: 222
Views: 30015

You Think Today's Market Was Nuts? It Wasn't Anything Compared To April 4, 2000 Today was pretty wild, but if you want to see wild, take a trip down memory lane to the NASDAQ on April 4, 2000, when the market was at one point down 14% before snapping back to nearly even . The wild action is highlig...
by Hemispheres
Thu May 06, 2010 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AMT will mitigate 3.8% health surtax impact for most
Replies: 24
Views: 3470

If you're making over $250k then you can afford a few extra dollars in taxes to help pay for people's healthcare who would otherwise die on the street. Uh, people aren't "dying in the street" and we already pay for their ER care. Not really. The ER docs and the hospital eat it. ... removed per requ...
by Hemispheres
Thu May 06, 2010 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AMT will mitigate 3.8% health surtax impact for most
Replies: 24
Views: 3470

Febreze wrote:If you're making over $250k then you can afford a few extra dollars in taxes to help pay for people's healthcare who would otherwise die on the street.
Uh, people aren't "dying in the street" and we already pay for their ER care.
by Hemispheres
Sun Apr 18, 2010 11:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How would you invest a lottery winning?
Replies: 76
Views: 12481

1) I'd show my grill on TV when I pick up the check so that everyone would know who the big man in town is now! 2) Have a posse . Man, I've always wanted one of those. Mine would be bigger than Roethlisberger's. I'd have lots of new friends who like me for me , not because I have money! 3) Keep a co...
by Hemispheres
Sat Mar 13, 2010 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Years After NASDAQ 5000, Henry Blodget Reflects
Replies: 6
Views: 1181

That 10% drop intraday on the NASDAQ in March/April 2000 wasn't enough of a bell for him???
by Hemispheres
Wed Mar 03, 2010 10:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is difference between S-Corp and C-Corp?
Replies: 25
Views: 3476

Google is your friend: http://www.themoneyalert.com/C....Table.html Thanks for the link. I see that I am a sole proprietor. You might want to form a sole-proprietor LLC. Not expensive or hard to do although I'd consult an attorney get it right. It at least gives you the illusion of less liability!
by Hemispheres
Wed Mar 03, 2010 3:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The price you pay for frothy assets
Replies: 6
Views: 1452

Kevin A. Hassett and James K. Glassman, later to author "Dow 36000," were saying in 1999 that Stock Prices Are Still Far Too Low . Not just not-too-expensive, not just low... far too low. And they gave reasons. I think Dow 36,000 was ridiculed quite a bit back then and not just by Bears. I was a bi...
by Hemispheres
Wed Mar 03, 2010 1:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is college worth it?
Replies: 152
Views: 14384

Everything I do for work (I'm also an engineer) I taught myself. I never, ever use anything I was taught in college (and the engineering curriculum is arguably more practical than most other majors). I don't solve differential equations, I don't perform descriptive geometry, I don't calculate defle...
by Hemispheres
Wed Mar 03, 2010 12:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is college worth it?
Replies: 152
Views: 14384

I think you should find out what you have both a passion and talent for and quit worrying about pay grades, job security, and office politics! Become obsessed with it. Learn everything about it.
by Hemispheres
Sun Feb 28, 2010 12:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hardest Years to Raise Kids?
Replies: 86
Views: 14325

I think that the first year of the first child is most difficult for parents as a couple. After that it gets much easier and fun as you watch them grow and learn. However, our daughter is 10 and I can already see the "teen" emerging. I'm just hoping for my Alzheimer's to kick in so that when she com...
by Hemispheres
Tue Feb 23, 2010 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: do rising interest rates automatically equal inflation?
Replies: 10
Views: 1907

Re: do rising interest rates automatically equal inflation?

I think alot of people out there are confusing rising interest rates with rising inflation - probably me included. I know that there is lots of discussion about positioning yourself with TIPS because inflation is imminent. But is it? I do feel that interest rate increases are a given, but I'm not s...
by Hemispheres
Sat Feb 20, 2010 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How would you invest $100k if you're in your late 20's?
Replies: 40
Views: 7578

It really depends on your particular circumstances. You'd blow through the 100K pretty quickly if you quit work and tried starting a business, so that's out unless you have high confidence it would succeed. On the other hand, the 100K would provide a substantial head start on a low overhead software...
by Hemispheres
Wed Feb 17, 2010 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bears: Was there blood in the streets last March?
Replies: 70
Views: 8919

Was there blood on the streets? With respect to Main Street, there is still plenty of blood left. Yep. The Tech Crash of 2001 hit many people in my neighborhood hard (there are around 500 homes here). Some companies went belly-up. Some of the people freaked out and never recovered. Most people here...
by Hemispheres
Wed Feb 17, 2010 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bears: Was there blood in the streets last March?
Replies: 70
Views: 8919

I bought when there was "blood in the waters": late Sep08, Oct08, Nov08, and Mar09. I thought I was a frigging genius each time. Unfortunately, it was my blood in the waters most of the time! By Mar09 I decided that the only way to truly make money was to make my little business more successful. Sti...
by Hemispheres
Mon Jan 25, 2010 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Astonishing Trivia
Replies: 16
Views: 2891

market timer wrote:March 18, 2003: US begins bombing Iraq

March 18, 2009: Fed announces quantitative easing
I think the March 2009 low was set when the Feds implied that CITI/BOA/etc weren't going to be allowed to go bankrupt.

Mike
by Hemispheres
Tue Jan 12, 2010 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P down 8.53% today? What the heck???
Replies: 48
Views: 14088

Re: follow up question

I'm curious. I don't have a million dollars in the stock market. I wish I did. But for those that do - if you glance at your investments today - you might have seen a 8.5% drop. So in one day you lose 85 thousand dollars. Just like that, 85 thousand dissappears. Up in smoke. Do you get upset? Do yo...
by Hemispheres
Wed Dec 30, 2009 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the Bond market "price in" expected Fed moves
Replies: 15
Views: 2522

Re: Interest Rate Expectations "Priced In"?

LT Treasury NAVs have already been impacted by the expectation of higher rates: VUSTX's YTD is -12% I don't pretend to be able to quantify the contributions of each factor, but "expectation of higher rates" is not the only reason for this YTD performance number. "Impacted" doesn't mean "only reason...
by Hemispheres
Wed Dec 30, 2009 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the Bond market "price in" expected Fed moves
Replies: 15
Views: 2522

LT Treasury NAVs have already been impacted by the expectation of higher rates: VUSTX's YTD is -12%

The more diversified bond funds caught the corporate rally and maintained their NAV: VBMFX's YTD is +6%

GNMA is still hanging in there: VFIIX's YTD is +5%
by Hemispheres
Wed Nov 11, 2009 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bubble (the word) is being misused
Replies: 18
Views: 2348

Re: Bubble (the word) is being misused

snowman9000 wrote:A bubble is a mania, very speculative, widespread, one-sided...
There's definitely bubble detection mania going on. Would you call it a "Bubble Bubble" or "Double Bubble"???
by Hemispheres
Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can there be a total Bond Market Crash?
Replies: 61
Views: 9480

Hemispheres wrote: If the USGov truly defaults then the last thing on your mind will be your investments. You'll be too busy finding food to eat and learning Chinese... That's a frightening scenario, to be sure. But it doesn't actually address the heart of my question re U.S. govt. default, which w...
by Hemispheres
Sat Oct 24, 2009 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can there be a total Bond Market Crash?
Replies: 61
Views: 9480

Re: Safety of U.S. Treasuries

1. I was planning on making my bond allocation 50% Treasuries and 50% TIPs. But what if the U.S. Government defaults on its treasuries? How feasible is that scenario? If the USGov truly defaults then the last thing on your mind will be your investments. You'll be too busy finding food to eat and le...
by Hemispheres
Sat Oct 24, 2009 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possible to make money buying specific stocks?
Replies: 21
Views: 3466

Re: Possible to make money buying specific stocks?

I would never buy shares of an actively managed fund, but I wonder whether it is possible to make money buying specific stocks on your own. See, for example, http://vinvesting.com/docs/munger/art_stockpicking.html The basic idea is that one becomes an expert in a particular industry and monitors th...
by Hemispheres
Wed Oct 14, 2009 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It is time to sell Gold (and maybe chicken wings)
Replies: 12
Views: 2453

Based on aging demographics, I'm long botox, cortisone, oxygen, VH1, and short Readers Digest.

Can't forget the younger generation: I'm speculatively short tattoo ink; long silicone, meth, and Univision.

Maybe Vanguard will come out with some low-cost index ETFs to cover these important markets.
by Hemispheres
Sun Oct 11, 2009 11:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 2010 Buick LaCrosse
Replies: 34
Views: 4578

Sorry Tex, check your facts there. Some differences in sheetmetal, interior, and trim. That's about it. Engines, transmissions, suspension design -- they're the same. I've been underneath both of them side-by-side on a lift. It's true. Sorry if this is news to you. I spend the majority of my time i...
by Hemispheres
Sun Oct 11, 2009 9:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 2010 Buick LaCrosse
Replies: 34
Views: 4578

Sorry Tex, check your facts there. Some differences in sheetmetal, interior, and trim. That's about it. Engines, transmissions, suspension design -- they're the same. I've been underneath both of them side-by-side on a lift. It's true. Sorry if this is news to you. I spend the majority of my time i...
by Hemispheres
Sun Oct 11, 2009 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VG: If int. rates up 1%, bond fund of 5 yr dur. goes down 5%
Replies: 4
Views: 1443

Here's a chart of the Fed Funds rate: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FEDFUNDS The FFR is at 50 year lows. It's difficult to come up with a historical average because the FFR moves in broad sweeps (with overlaid, wild short-term moves). There was a long upswing from 1950 to 1980 followed...
by Hemispheres
Sun Oct 11, 2009 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long term bond funds down sharply
Replies: 14
Views: 2942

There are comments from Fed officials that cover the entire gamut. Last week I read where one Fed bigwig said that a hiking of something like 100 bp in Fed Funds wouldn't be considered "tightening". Then you read other Feds saying rates aren't going up anytime soon. It could be that the intermediate...
by Hemispheres
Tue Sep 29, 2009 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2009 Boglehead Contest Leaders
Replies: 29
Views: 3854

I'm lurking back at #98. Only 6% to go on the SP500. I had to search for the original post to see my, ehem, rationale for choosing 1125. It wasn't as bad as I thought, my guess was based on a 25% rise over the year. FYI: here's a link to the original Contest post from Jan09: http://www.bogleheads.or...
by Hemispheres
Sat Sep 26, 2009 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oh, no... "Are We Back in a Bubble?"
Replies: 67
Views: 7357

Re: Oh, no... "Are We Back in a Bubble?"

... I thought I could shrug off the loss of 1/6th of my portfolio, but somehow, now that I'm in semiretirement I am thinking more in absolute dollars and what it felt more like "the last five years' patient and somewhat difficult 401(k) and Roth savings, all gone." ... That change in semiretirement...
by Hemispheres
Thu Sep 24, 2009 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chance of US government bond default within 40 years?
Replies: 68
Views: 10279

I'm not willing to say 0, so I picked less than 0.5%....but I'd put it a lot closer to 0 than it is to 0.5%. Me too. I didn't click 0% because 40 years is a long time. An asteroid might devastate the planet or cannibalistic zombies might rise from the grave and rampage in our cities. Never say neve...
by Hemispheres
Thu Sep 24, 2009 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CNBC: Fed Mulls Exit via Money Market Funds: Report
Replies: 9
Views: 1956

Sounds like a win for money market funds. They could earn interest close to the rates on agency mortgage backed securities but with zero risk. Ron Is that correct? It seems like the MBS would simply be collateral and not interest-bearing for the MMFs (i.e. the MMF doesn't "own" the MBS). The Fed wo...
by Hemispheres
Thu Sep 24, 2009 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CNBC: Fed Mulls Exit via Money Market Funds: Report
Replies: 9
Views: 1956

CNBC: Fed Mulls Exit via Money Market Funds: Report

Does anyone know how this would affect the Vanguard MMFs? I assume it would only apply to Prime and Federal MMF??? http://www.cnbc.com/id/32998063 Snippet: The U.S. Federal Reserve is studying the idea of borrowing from money market mutual funds as part of eventual steps to withdraw stimulus, the Fi...
by Hemispheres
Mon Sep 21, 2009 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chance of US government bond default within 40 years?
Replies: 68
Views: 10279

The USGov wouldn't default, they'd just inflate their way out of them.
by Hemispheres
Mon Sep 14, 2009 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the week money market funds nearly died....
Replies: 33
Views: 4107

To understand the scope of LTCM’s collapse, and its potential impact on the broader markets, it is important to grasp the implications of the fund’s investment strategies... That link's a nice summary of the LTCM situation. I find it hard to believe that LTCM never ran their trading strategy model ...
by Hemispheres
Fri Sep 11, 2009 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Job outlook hits worst-ever level
Replies: 29
Views: 3989

jh wrote:The data that I see on "main street" still looks horrible.
No kidding. I thought things were back on track in August when my little business finally saw YoY growth again ... but September is a disaster so far. Sales have fallen off a cliff.