Search found 1032 matches

by junior
Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Parents in a tough situation for retirement
Replies: 117
Views: 13269

Re: Parents in a tough situation for retirement

I wipe out my social security each year with prescription costs, and I have a Plan D. You spend your entire social security income on medication? So if you only had social security income and no other income what would happen? Would you be dead? Or would the drug company or some other charity give ...
by junior
Wed Jun 03, 2020 3:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wife's expectations of subsidizing her friends' lives
Replies: 82
Views: 4468

Re: Wife's expectations of subsidizing her friends' lives

When I see posts like this I think "why the heck does this person think they are going to get good advice here!?!" A bunch of people talking about stocks all day, they must be good at relationships? :oops: I think that "this person" is going to get some good financial advice here. The issues seem t...
by junior
Wed Jun 03, 2020 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein: the paradox of wealth
Replies: 136
Views: 29003

Re: William Bernstein: the paradox of wealth

the article was published in january 2013. since then the compound average annual return (CAGR) of the Vanguard total stock market index has been 12.8% per year Which, of course, means that Bernstein, along with many other 'experts', was completely, totally wrong in his prediction of low returns, b...
by junior
Wed Jun 03, 2020 2:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wife's expectations of subsidizing her friends' lives
Replies: 82
Views: 4468

Re: Wife's expectations of subsidizing her friends' lives

When I see posts like this I think "why the heck does this person think they are going to get good advice here!?!" A bunch of people talking about stocks all day, they must be good at relationships? :oops:
by junior
Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein: the paradox of wealth
Replies: 136
Views: 29003

Re: William Bernstein: the paradox of wealth

the article was published in january 2013. since then the compound average annual return (CAGR) of the Vanguard total stock market index has been 12.8% per year Which, of course, means that Bernstein, along with many other 'experts', was completely, totally wrong in his prediction of low returns, b...
by junior
Fri May 22, 2020 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy
Replies: 146
Views: 7286

Re: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosphy

That is the real question. I would worry about sampling issues. What if I am right every 10 years on average with one of these calls? The odds of not being right over 30 or 40 years is pretty darn high. History is full of people that made the right call for a decade. The list that make it to 30 yea...
by junior
Fri May 22, 2020 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy
Replies: 146
Views: 7286

Re: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosphy

Taleb has a very convoluted, obfuscated way of saying "personally, I like to play long shots." long shots with a huge payoff. Perhaps it's rational. And, he had got it right and won big twice. So, there should be some merit in his method. KlangFool His funds don't have results that are posted publi...
by junior
Fri May 22, 2020 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy
Replies: 146
Views: 7286

Re: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosphy

Taleb has a very convoluted, obfuscated way of saying "personally, I like to play long shots." long shots with a huge payoff. Perhaps it's rational. And, he had got it right and won big twice. So, there should be some merit in his method. KlangFool His funds don't have results that are posted publi...
by junior
Thu May 21, 2020 5:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to convince amazon.com - Spending is difficult and confusing to track
Replies: 17
Views: 2183

Re: How to convince amazon.com - Spending is difficult and confusing to track

This is a company that intermingles their own "shipped and sold by amazon" stock with third party often counterfeit merchandise and you think they care about reputation?

You should probably not buy anything at Amazon that goes in your body, it might be counterfeit and unsafe.
by junior
Thu May 14, 2020 7:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International market recovery
Replies: 146
Views: 9654

Re: International market recovery

If you read Vanguard`s annual economic report you'll see they expect international to outperform U. S. over the next 10 years. I don't know if they will be right or wrong but they certainly seem more educated than the 100% U. S. crowd who seem to be operating on folk wisdom rather than data. I'd en...
by junior
Wed May 13, 2020 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International market recovery
Replies: 146
Views: 9654

Re: International market recovery

If you read Vanguard`s annual economic report you'll see they expect international to outperform U. S. over the next 10 years.

I don't know if they will be right or wrong but they certainly seem more educated than the 100% U. S. crowd who seem to be operating on folk wisdom rather than data.
by junior
Wed May 13, 2020 5:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to look for a good Primary Care Physician (PCP), and no price transparency...
Replies: 35
Views: 2094

Re: How to look for a good Primary Care Physician (PCP), and no price transparency...

I would think there should be a negotiated rate on your HDHP plan so as long as the doctor is on your plan theres no point comparing prices.that's how it works on mine. In my limited experience as a patient for many ongoing conditions the PCP will just refer you to a specialist so it doesn't necessa...
by junior
Wed May 13, 2020 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New era for TSP "I" Fund?
Replies: 119
Views: 17359

Re: New era for TSP "I" Fund?

Isn't owning international in taxable just as tax efficient as in the TSP? If so why do you all care? You can easily buy some emerging market etfs to supplement the Tsp, right? Or just buy international outside the TSP in a taxable account? Help me out in understanding why this matters. You realize...
by junior
Wed May 13, 2020 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New era for TSP "I" Fund?
Replies: 119
Views: 17359

Re: New era for TSP "I" Fund?

Isn't owning international in taxable just as tax efficient as in the TSP? If so why do you all care? You can easily buy some emerging market etfs to supplement the Tsp, right? Or just buy international outside the TSP in a taxable account?

Help me out in understanding why this matters.
by junior
Fri May 08, 2020 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is lump sum investment option better than DCA?
Replies: 156
Views: 5832

Re: Why is lump sum investment option better than DCA?

Which do you pick if you want to pay rent on time? Unless eviction provides you with positive utility (or you don't understand how to think probabilistically) you obviously pick the one with the higher expected return. Eviction effects quality of life. I'm sure it doesn't take a lengthy post to exp...
by junior
Sun May 03, 2020 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein: Why value is dead
Replies: 96
Views: 9082

Re: Bill Bernstein: Why value is dead

This is what Dr. Bernstein wrote for younger investors in his book: "If You Can ": I'm sure you are aware that the target audience for that books was not Bogleheads, but lay people who knew nothing about investing. His series Investing for Adults is more appropriate for the folks who regularly post...
by junior
Fri May 01, 2020 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein: Why value is dead
Replies: 96
Views: 9082

Re: Bill Bernstein: Why value is dead

That’s an example of a cognitive bias called anchoring. It leads people to want to get back to even. In reality, every day is a new day. Disagree. If reversion to the mean is a thing every day is not a new day and there is no cognitive bias in staying the course. Reversion to the mean is no longer ...
by junior
Fri May 01, 2020 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein: Why value is dead
Replies: 96
Views: 9082

Re: Bill Bernstein: Why value is dead

rkhusky wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 5:18 pm

That’s an example of a cognitive bias called anchoring. It leads people to want to get back to even. In reality, every day is a new day.
Disagree. If reversion to the mean is a thing every day is not a new day and there is no cognitive bias in staying the course.
by junior
Fri May 01, 2020 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein: Why value is dead
Replies: 96
Views: 9082

Re: Bill Bernstein: Why value is dead

They should care if they are diversifying into leveraged disrupted companies that have little chances of recovering competitive advantage. Lets look at the 2 largest industries in SCV, energy & banks/finance. Historically, these have not been disrupted, now they are, so looking at the past & expect...
by junior
Fri May 01, 2020 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein: Why value is dead
Replies: 96
Views: 9082

Re: Bill Bernstein: Why value is dead

Way backaways, Dr. Bernstein articulated the relationship between inflation and the returns from value stocks. Is that article from 2001? I wouldn't assume Bernstein even still believes it today. Here's what he's said recently about value: https://boglecenter.net/2019/12/27/bogleheads-on-investing-...
by junior
Fri May 01, 2020 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to I invest in the self-driving car industry?
Replies: 64
Views: 3398

Re: How to I invest in the self-driving car industry?

I invite anyone out of their 20s to consider where technology has come from in just their short existence, if you're retirement age, you were alive in the '50s! We hadn't been to the moon. "People successfully invented X" isn't a great argument for "people will successfully invent Y in our lifetime...
by junior
Fri May 01, 2020 10:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 41867

Re: Why international?

What will constitute presumably superior ‘non-armchair’ experience? Jet hopping business travel? And how then you would you translate that specific experience of sorts into money investment decisions? I believe numbers and those numbers simply do not support international indexing investment. I don...
by junior
Fri May 01, 2020 8:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 41867

Re: Why international?

I know the world keeps changing but how did the investing philosophy of the company stray so far from the founder? I would suggest that if Bogle was good at his job he should have hired people who were smarter than him. (If you want your company to be a success it's better to hire people smarter th...
by junior
Fri May 01, 2020 8:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 41867

Re: Why international?

And after reading this thread I am started thinking that passive indexing simply does not work for international investments. You should probably get your ideas from books by well respected authors, rather than anonymous people on the Internet, many of who have no clue what they are talking about. ...
by junior
Thu Apr 30, 2020 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to I invest in the self-driving car industry?
Replies: 64
Views: 3398

Re: How to I invest in the self-driving car industry?

Any suggestions? Lots of unknowns. Not sure which auto maker will survive and which ride share company will prevail. But this is the future which will come upon us in a few years. It's my understanding that the most advanced self driving cars are owned by Google (Actually google's parent company Al...
by junior
Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: OneNote alternative (Windows)?
Replies: 14
Views: 833

Re: OneNote alternative (Windows)?

I like Evernote but it doesn't really do password protection of sections. You can only password protect part of a note as I recall and I would not trust it to work well since I doubt most users even use that feature. You can keep certain notes in an offline notebook but then of course you need to wo...
by junior
Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri: "You have to stick with that plan for the rest of your life."
Replies: 61
Views: 8869

Re: Rick Ferri: "You have to stick with that plan for the rest of your life."

This is why people should not benchmark their portfolio and see how it did compared to anyone else's portfolio. If you do something like an equal weighted S&P or small cap value tilt you should never look to see if you would have made more money with a different strategy. Same goes for 100% domestic...
by junior
Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tracking Progress on my Market Timing
Replies: 36
Views: 1687

Re: Tracking Progress on my Market Timing

Why? I went from cash and DCA into indexes from Feb to now. VIX is below 40. I’m convinced we are experiencing market conditions which have little to no basis in reality. I think you might be right. But that doesn't imply the market conditions will have a basis in reality in the future. If the mark...
by junior
Mon Apr 27, 2020 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the index funds save us?
Replies: 23
Views: 2523

Re: Will the index funds save us?

At the very least, if the US government were to take it under eminent domain (I don't know if there's any precedent for claiming intellectual property rather than physical property under eminent domain), they would be obligated by the constitution to pay a presumably astronomical sum of money for i...
by junior
Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying to build Black Swan by Larry Swedroe
Replies: 17
Views: 2004

Re: Trying to build Black Swan by Larry Swedroe

If you're going to build an unusual portfolio like the "Black Swan" portfolio I would hope that you don't check how well said portfolio does compared to more mainstream portfolios, because if it ends up underperforming the three fund portfolio for 20 years you will feel discouraged. If you never che...
by junior
Sat Apr 18, 2020 3:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pension vs. simply investing? Is pension even worth it at all?
Replies: 58
Views: 3712

Re: Pension vs. simply investing? Is pension even worth it at all?

It would be nice to get 7% per year for 30 years. I assume you are talking "real" not inflation adjusted numbers. John Bogle thought we'd we'd get 2% real return per year on stocks in the upcoming years. https://www.financial-planning.com/opinion/jack-bogle-forecasts-lower-stock-and-bond-returns So ...
by junior
Fri Apr 17, 2020 3:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Upgrade Computer Before Law School?
Replies: 42
Views: 1887

Re: Upgrade Computer Before Law School?

For what it's worth when I was in Law School over a decade ago the exams were administered using software that requires Windows. Mac users had to buy a cheaper Windows computer just to take exams or write answers to essays by hand. I don't know how things are done these days but definitely check wit...
by junior
Wed Apr 15, 2020 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1112
Views: 111989

Re: Understanding Stocks and Bonds

Bogle indicated U.S. stocks would perform poorly due to valuations: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jack-bogle-on-how-to-invest-in-a-time-of-trump-be-realistic-2017-04-13 2% real returns per year was his projection is my understanding. It's interesting that Bogle advocated 100% U.S. stock when he ...
by junior
Mon Apr 13, 2020 9:13 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: No need to invest for Europeans?
Replies: 119
Views: 6550

Re: No need to invest for Europeans?

A few reasons why you might want to invest: 1) You want to increase consumption in retirement over consumption during your working years (i.e. increase travel spending) 2) You are afraid that your society could decline due to a political or environmental event and think money may help 3) The social ...
by junior
Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 100% Stocks considering fixed income investments
Replies: 9
Views: 705

Re: 100% Stocks considering fixed income investments

Pretty much every expert seems to recommend at least 10% bonds (just look at the target life-cycle style portfolios) but I see no need for you to make a change now.

If you have to make a change 10% bonds is not likely to make a big difference either way.
by junior
Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Prospects for S&P 500 Share Buybacks
Replies: 16
Views: 1106

Re: Prospects for S&P 500 Share Buybacks

I know dividends come with an expectation that they will be regular. Buybacks do not. Therefore they are not equivalent.
by junior
Wed Apr 08, 2020 8:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Follow Bernstein or Bogle
Replies: 99
Views: 7416

Re: Follow Bernstein or Bogle

livesoft wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 8:41 am
The Bernstein LMP formula is another way of saying have 40% in bonds, so there is no inconsistency between Bernstein, Bogle, and/or Vanguard advisor.
This is not correct. Under LMP OP would have to figure out how many bonds OP needs to live. It could be 40% or it could be 90%.
by junior
Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Reducing home buying price due to coronavirus uncertainty?
Replies: 49
Views: 4085

Re: Reducing home buying price due to coronavirus uncertainty?

I'm trying to make a contribution to influencing what the fair market value is by reflecting the market conditions into my home-buying decision making. While you try to make a contribution to influencing what the fair market value is you will be competing with buyers who are trying to get the house...
by junior
Mon Apr 06, 2020 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Predictions for the next 6 months (spoiler: interest rates will rise)
Replies: 46
Views: 2824

Re: Predictions for the next 6 months (spoiler: interest rates will rise)

You lost me when you predicted herd immunity by summer without a citation.
by junior
Mon Apr 06, 2020 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stocks are undervalued!
Replies: 83
Views: 9207

Re: International stocks are undervalued!

The European/Japanese stock markets are valued at a certain level for a reason. Here we get at the crux of it. If investor behavior is random, they are valued the way they are due to random chance. If investor behavior is cyclical, they are valued the way they are because international stocks are n...
by junior
Sat Apr 04, 2020 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Business Cycle: At least one recession every 10 years
Replies: 56
Views: 2746

Re: Business Cycle: At least one recession every 10 years

This statement is simply wrong too. The average return between 100/0 and 70/30 is only 1% per year. It is not big enough to make a difference whether someone can retire. You can do the calculation and show that this to be true. I went to portfolio visualizer and tried plugging in some numbers for h...
by junior
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Business Cycle: At least one recession every 10 years
Replies: 56
Views: 2746

Re: Business Cycle: At least one recession every 10 years

If you have a good size emergency fund a 30% bond allocation may be unnecessary.

A high bond allocation may reduce risk, but for a young person it can also increase the chance of not making enough money to retire when you want. There are tradeoffs to any strategy.
by junior
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [What happens if I stop contributing to my retirement and taxable accounts?]
Replies: 8
Views: 794

Re: [What happens if I stop contributing to my retirement and taxable accounts?]

[Title was "Underemployed or out of a Job" -- admin LadyGeek] Due to the pandemic, many of us are either underemployed or out of a job. Thankfully, I found this website several years ago and have enough cash on hand for about 15 months to cover all expenses. I'm also looking to cut whatever I can a...
by junior
Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Seek Mental Health Help, Negative Consequences and Adverse Actions in future Personal Finance matters?
Replies: 30
Views: 2059

Re: Seek Mental Health Help, Negative Consequences and Adverse Actions in future Personal Finance matters?

If going to a mental health provider would cause problems you'd be able to find articles in the news about insurance rates going up for people seeking mental health. I strongly suspect there are no such articles. Unless you are imagining some sort of social change that causes such a problem in the f...
by junior
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 6385
Views: 539597

Re: Something Can't Be Right

The stock market isn't rational. Look at how PE 10 changes over the year. If it was rational you'd expect it to be consistent from decade to decade.
by junior
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the 30-year total return for S&P500 or VTI?
Replies: 20
Views: 1762

Re: What is the 30-year total return for S&P500 or VTI?

Type in investment return calcator in google. Try whatever calculator comes up for your time period and set it for the results of 3% returns, 4% returns etc. up to 7%. Returns will be somewhere between 3 and 7 percent in the most likely scenarios, nobody knows what exactly it will be. Don't listen t...
by junior
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: dead cat mouse
Replies: 56
Views: 5889

Re: dead cat mouse

New to investing, never dealt with the 08 crisis, wounding if this is a good time to catch a little lightning in a bottle to get back a few% and move what money I can to a low interest saving for a few months until things start to normalize. I am just spit balling and guessing that if the fed reser...
by junior
Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldmans View - $110 S&P 500 EPS in 2020 (-33%), then $170 EPS in 2021 (+55%) - Near Term 2k S&P Going to 3k
Replies: 12
Views: 1531

Re: Goldmans View - $110 S&P 500 EPS in 2020 (-33%), then $170 EPS in 2021 (+55%) - Near Term 2k S&P Going to 3k

Brief Summary Business activity continues to deteriorate at a rapid rate. In 2008, financial excesses affected the rest of the economy. In 2020, the collapse in the real economy has driven financial markets into turmoil. As social distancing has confined many citizens to their homes, corporate sale...
by junior
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why do some people have more tolerance for risk than others?
Replies: 32
Views: 1677

Re: Why do some people have more tolerance for risk than others?

My cousin and I are the same age, grew up in a fairy similar household, emigrated to the US in a two year window in our late teens / early 20s. All in all, we have similar background. But I am a lot more risk averse than he is. I tend to look a few steps ahead and have contingency plans. He thinks ...
by junior
Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Move from TSP L fund to C fund during COVID19 sale?
Replies: 7
Views: 448

Re: Move from TSP L fund to C fund during COVID19 sale?

Yeah ditching international makes no sense. International is also down. If you want to go 100% stock, fine, but do it in a way that makes sense. There are 3 equity funds in the TSP, you should own a portion of all 3 funds similar to the amount in the L fund, just ditch the bonds.