Search found 497 matches

by Ari
Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 67
Views: 7887

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

As assets grow, the need to take risk decreases, but the ability increases. So it's a wash, really. Just up to your personal preference (willingness). To me, the "need" part always seemed strange to count as part of "risk tolerance". The fact that I need to take risks doesn't mean my tolerance is hi...
by Ari
Fri Oct 12, 2018 2:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is your risk tolerance to dollars or percentages?
Replies: 17
Views: 1198

Re: Is your risk tolerance to dollars or percentages?

Are you immediately fearful of losing a percentage of the new $2M portfolio and invest the $2M again at 50-50, or is the additional million gravy, that can all be invested in equities, since the risk of losing the amount in dollars from the initial million would remain unchanged? My risk tolerance ...
by Ari
Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will you backup the truck on stocks
Replies: 95
Views: 8219

Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Yeah, I don't have any money to buy more stocks for if they go on sale. If I did, I'd buy more stocks today!
by Ari
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The benefits of international diversification - NOT: Hulbert
Replies: 80
Views: 5205

Re: The benefits of international diversification - NOT: Hulbert

Culbretd wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:17 am
While looking in my 401(k) one share of S&P 500 is roughly $160 a share and in my wifes 403(b) one share of S&P 500 (VIIIX) was $250 a share. Meanwhile my international fund (MSCI EAFE) is $16 a share.
I'm confused. How is the share price of the funds you invest in relevant?
by Ari
Wed Oct 10, 2018 5:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The benefits of international diversification - NOT: Hulbert
Replies: 80
Views: 5205

Re: The benefits of international diversification - NOT: Hulbert

What's your rationale for such a large EM weighting? I find market weight to be a great thing in individual funds, since it limits transactions and thus costs. For the world portfolio, I'm not as convinced market weight is necessarily the most diversified, for a variety of definitions of the word. ...
by Ari
Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Romer & William Nordhaus share Nobel Prize in Economics
Replies: 16
Views: 1501

Re: Paul Romer & William Nordhaus share Nobel Prize in Economics

Bogle applied economic science to a practical problem and created huge human value out of it. He wasn't Salk or Sabin to invent the polio vaccine, he was the guy who took the vaccination programme out to Africa, if you will. We won't remember that man, woman or collective group, but they have profo...
by Ari
Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The benefits of international diversification - NOT: Hulbert
Replies: 80
Views: 5205

Re: The benefits of international diversification - NOT: Hulbert

A common misconception is that you should hold non-US equities to protect you against a crash. What it's for is rather to protect you against a slow decline. Personally, I'm at 20% US, the same as my EM allocation, but then the US is part of my international allocation. :D US-only investors cite a h...
by Ari
Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Romer & William Nordhaus share Nobel Prize in Economics
Replies: 16
Views: 1501

Re: Paul Romer & William Nordhaus share Nobel Prize in Economics

But what do Swedes know of low cost Index funds which have caused a revolution in how people can retire? This made me laugh out loud. It recalls the recent hullabaloo on these forums about Fidelity's zero ER funds. I, being a Swede, have been investing in a zero ER fund for over a decade. And as fa...
by Ari
Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?
Replies: 129
Views: 14744

Re: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?

People worry so much about the crashes that they tend to forget about all the money you make leading up to them. Being in a market that goes crazy high and then crashes is likely to make you more money than staying out of it. Personally, I just hakuna my matatas and hope for the best. It's ironic th...
by Ari
Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “It’s probably wise to sell to the sleeping point.” - Jack Bogle
Replies: 83
Views: 11519

Re: “It’s probably wise to sell to the sleeping point.” - Jack Bogle

So adjust your asset allocation based on the outlook of the market going forward? It's not market timing if it's Bogle!
by Ari
Fri Sep 14, 2018 5:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slight fear of investing in general now
Replies: 20
Views: 2195

Re: Slight fear of investing in general now

I wonder if there's someone like the OP, who instead wakes up in the middle of the night in a cold sweat - "I wonder if things are much, much more resiliently on an upward trend than anyone realizes?" I don't wake up in the middle of the night, but I have a feeling that just never really goes away ...
by Ari
Wed Sep 05, 2018 1:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95294

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Remember adherents of investing internationally, on this website at least, invest by world cap. If a company is being propped up, as long as it is being traded on the public markets, it cannot possibly have a market cap of zero. Let's say company B really ought to be eliminated by Company A in an e...
by Ari
Mon Sep 03, 2018 4:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doomsayers and market prophets
Replies: 1
Views: 508

Doomsayers and market prophets

I really enjoyed this article listing doomsday prophesies from the last three years. It's good to remember how ubiquitous they are when someone claims authority on the basis of having predicted the 2008 crash. 2015 [1 Mar 2015] Stock-market crash of 2016: The countdown begins [17 May 2015] Countdown...
by Ari
Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95294

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

So perhaps the better argument is to say when WOULD I invest in international. I would invest in international when those internal barriers are gone, when the international zone is a monolithic entity, and when International starts posting 10% a year CAGR nominal. This is an incredibly odd way of l...
by Ari
Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95294

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

http://shiller.barclays.com/SM/12/en/indices/static/historic-ratios.app Really cool link. Thanks for sharing. Agreed; that's very interesting. According to this, my home market of Sweden briefly reached Japanese levels of CAPE, at over 79 in February 2000. I wasn't investing back then, but still, I...
by Ari
Fri Aug 17, 2018 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95294

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

20+ years of inferior International performance... At what point does our own script change about International? If it lags for 30 years, 40 years? Never...? Looking at Portfoliovisualizer of a graph of the last 20 years of US vs. World Ex US, What I can see is that World Ex US takes the lead, then...
by Ari
Thu Jul 26, 2018 12:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heresy: is using a SP500 index still a valid strategy ?
Replies: 28
Views: 4726

Re: Heresy: is using a SP500 index still a valid strategy ?

As has already been pointed out: 1. It's not an atypical situation, just business as usual. It's pretty much mathematically certain that in a cap-weighted index where some companies are much larger than others, and some companies are doing much better than others, then the section "large companies t...
by Ari
Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018
Replies: 76
Views: 11090

Re: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018

It seems to me that if we have an index of stocks with two characteristics: 1. The stocks have very varying size, with some very large and many very small. 2. The stocks have very varying results, with some going very well and others very badly. ... then the above result would necessarily be the cas...
by Ari
Sun Jun 24, 2018 4:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heavy in equities?
Replies: 46
Views: 5069

Re: Heavy in equities?

I'm with AlohaJoe and Estrada on this one. I hold 100% equities because I don't think volatility is a good measure for risk, in my personal situation. I believe that the best downside protection is having a lot of money. Crashes do decimate stocks, but in general, they are preceded by a large runup....
by Ari
Mon Jun 04, 2018 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Financial Illiteracy’s High Cost
Replies: 30
Views: 4086

Re: Larry Swedroe: Financial Illiteracy’s High Cost

Regarding the study, I found it interesting that the more financially literate were more active in their investments, changing their allocations more, and also got better returns, than the less financially literate, who generally stayed put in their investments. And the more literate did not have mo...
by Ari
Mon Jun 04, 2018 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Financial Illiteracy’s High Cost
Replies: 30
Views: 4086

Re: Larry Swedroe: Financial Illiteracy’s High Cost

Here are the questions that gauge literacy: == Financial Literacy The variable Financial Literacy equals the number of correct answers to the following questions: 1) Suppose that you have 1000 Euro in a savings account that offers a return of 2% per year. After five years, assuming that you have no...
by Ari
Sat Jun 02, 2018 8:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Milestones on the way to FI [Financial Independence]
Replies: 33
Views: 4578

Re: Milestones on the way to FI

Normal but big expenses like a repair/purchase of home appliances or automobiles do not make you worry about how to pay for them. That could be a good one, though a bit vague. Personally, I've never had to do repairs (I'm a renter), bought home appliances (minimalist renter!) or bought a car (never...
by Ari
Sat Jun 02, 2018 8:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Milestones on the way to FI [Financial Independence]
Replies: 33
Views: 4578

Re: Milestones on the way to FI

Ari....You might want to consider using your 'Funding Ratio' as your yardstick. I have found that metric very helpful, and humbling. Bobcat2 has written about this a lot, and it has significantly influenced my thinking. And saving habits. I'm looking more for discreet milestones than yardsticks. I ...
by Ari
Sat Jun 02, 2018 1:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Milestones on the way to FI [Financial Independence]
Replies: 33
Views: 4578

Re: Milestones on the way to FI

Some good milestones here! I remembered two more: * First time my passive income (calculated with 4% rule) exceeded my rent. I'm now living "rent free" so to speak. * This hasn't happened yet, but almost: I check my portfolio balance each month after having invested a large part of my salary. In the...
by Ari
Fri Jun 01, 2018 3:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Milestones on the way to FI [Financial Independence]
Replies: 33
Views: 4578

Re: Milestones on the way to FI

youngpleb wrote:
Fri Jun 01, 2018 3:07 pm
My current targeted FI milestone is getting my total portfolio to $100,000 because, as Charlie Munger says, "The first 100k is a b*tch."
It's true! Since I don't count in USD, I never really noticed when I had reached 100k USD, but looking back, yes, it was a … pain. :)
by Ari
Fri Jun 01, 2018 3:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Milestones on the way to FI [Financial Independence]
Replies: 33
Views: 4578

Re: Milestones on the way to FI

If you are a homeowner: When your net worth (including equity in home) goes positive. I made a chart that showed me the progress to that crossover point. Not sure I understood this (but then I've never been a homeowner). If you borrow 100k and buy a house worth 100k, surely this doesn't bring your ...
by Ari
Fri Jun 01, 2018 2:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Milestones on the way to FI [Financial Independence]
Replies: 33
Views: 4578

Milestones on the way to FI [Financial Independence]

The road to becoming financially independent (FI) is usually quite long. I find it helpful to have small milestones to look forward to. Some milestones are quite simple. My first million (SEK. I'm far from a million USD) was a pretty big milestone for me. Another one was when I looked back and saw t...
by Ari
Tue May 29, 2018 1:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New to this - been looking at some Active Managed
Replies: 22
Views: 1442

Re: New to this - been looking at some Active Managed

Suggesting active management is likely to receive very critical, often sarcastic and sometimes downright hostile responses on these forums, which I think this thread shows some evidence of. Nevertheless, I think there are some arguments against active investing that you should consider that have not...
by Ari
Tue May 08, 2018 5:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does stock buyback benefit investors?
Replies: 78
Views: 6918

Re: How does stock buyback benefit investors?

If the company can continue to produce the same amount of earnings, there are fewer owners to share those earnings. If I had been content to pay $20 for every $1 of earnings (forward p/e of 20), then presumably I’d pay more for the share since the same earnings are spread over fewer shares. I think...
by Ari
Thu May 03, 2018 1:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Everything You Need to Know on an Index Card
Replies: 33
Views: 4396

Re: Everything You Need to Know on an Index Card

An index card has two sides, right? Outer game (what to do): Earn as much as you can Spend as little as you can Invest the difference in a low-cost, global stock index fund Don't sell unless you need the money urgently Once you have 25x yearly expenses, you are (barely) FI. In FI, you can spend 4% o...
by Ari
Tue Apr 24, 2018 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fun Money
Replies: 45
Views: 3320

Re: Fun Money

This has continually bugged me. How can someone preach that a 0.5-1% extra ER will crush your portfolio while putting a small chunk of your portfolio entirely at risk in other assets. If you only put 5% of your portfolio in nonindexed assets that tracks at 80% of market returns, you’d have essentia...
by Ari
Thu Apr 12, 2018 12:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets tilt
Replies: 37
Views: 4213

Re: Emerging markets tilt

20% EM
Rationale: They are riskier and I expect to be rewarded for that in the long term.
Prognosis: I don't do prognosis.
by Ari
Fri Apr 06, 2018 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle on stock turbulence: ‘never seen a market this volatile to this extent in my career’
Replies: 88
Views: 13571

Re: Bogle on stock turbulence: ‘never seen a market this volatile to this extent in my career’

I honestly hadn't noticed. A good global spread of my investments and not reading the news means that the only way I find out about volatile markets is reading about them on Bogleheads.
by Ari
Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is technical analysis all smoke and mirrors?
Replies: 62
Views: 6232

Re: Is technical analysis all smoke and mirrors?

but Larry Swedroe has come full circle on the topic and now is in favor of it. This is an honest question: then why does he bother writing and advising others instead of trading constantly and becoming fabulously wealthy? Where does this idea come from that anyone who can make money investing in an...
by Ari
Sat Mar 17, 2018 4:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No risk retirement withdraw strategy - WARM
Replies: 35
Views: 4684

Re: No risk retirement withdraw strategy - WARM

That's a good point. I thought about that as well, but if we manage to escape aging, then I would assume we would be relatively healthy to go back to work to make up for the lost money. But with the rise of AI and robotics, the "work" will have totally different meaning by then. Escaping aging migh...
by Ari
Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No risk retirement withdraw strategy - WARM
Replies: 35
Views: 4684

Re: No risk retirement withdraw strategy - WARM

In this article, a couple in their 50’s have a 2 million dollars nest egg from which they’re withdrawing $40k a year. So they should be good for 50 years. Simple. No advisors. No stock market risk. It puts you in the control, instead of external factors like the market or the economy. The article g...
by Ari
Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International again?
Replies: 224
Views: 25684

Re: Why International again?

I'm currently holding my nose while my strategy forces me to have exposure as high as 18% to US equities... I know what you mean. :) I'm 20% US and staying the course is not easy, but I'm not going to try to time this. Just happy that my allocation keeps me with plenty of other exposures to diversi...
by Ari
Mon Mar 12, 2018 4:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International again?
Replies: 224
Views: 25684

Re: Why International again?

"Past results are no guarantee for future returns" It depends. Sometimes our investment decisions are based on the past. The number one reason given for using "passive" instead of "active" is that only a few [actively managed funds] have managed to beat their index counterpart. So, based on past pe...
by Ari
Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Give me the long-term predictability of shares, at any age
Replies: 14
Views: 1832

Re: Give me the long-term predictability of shares, at any age

It might seem strange, at first sight, but most people with a $1 million portfolio wouldn't project ahead assuming they only possess a $500 thousands portfolio. So, if a crisis happens and the portfolio drops to $500 thousands, they'll feel that they've sustained a significant loss, probably equati...
by Ari
Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International again?
Replies: 224
Views: 25684

Re: Why International again?

In portfoliovisualizer.com backtest portfolio asset class allocation, I enter 10,000 set to maximum date range, defaults to 1986. Portfolio 1: 100% US Stock Market. Final balance: 250,840. CAGR 10.56. Stdev 15.01. Portfolio 2: 100% ex-US Stock Market. Final balance: 102,288. CAGR 7.52. Stdev 17.88....
by Ari
Fri Mar 09, 2018 5:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International again?
Replies: 224
Views: 25684

Re: Why International again?

The world market portfolio has historically outperformed the vast majority of single country markets. A better way to put it: The CAGR (compounded annual growth rate) of the world market portfolio is significantly higher than the CAGR for the average single-country market portfolio. And more import...
by Ari
Fri Mar 09, 2018 5:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International again?
Replies: 224
Views: 25684

Re: Why International again?

The world market portfolio has historically outperformed the vast majority of single country markets. A few countries have managed to outperform it historically (among them my home country of Sweden). If you are a skilled country-picker, it seems reasonable to choose to invest in the country or coun...
by Ari
Fri Mar 09, 2018 2:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Give me the long-term predictability of shares, at any age
Replies: 14
Views: 1832

Re: Give me the long-term predictability of shares, at any age

Yeah, it seems strange to me to say that the problem is that suddenly you have a lot of money that you risk losing. It seems like a nice problem to have.
by Ari
Fri Dec 22, 2017 3:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is or was your target multiplier (_ x annual expenses) for retirement?
Replies: 41
Views: 5867

Re: What is or was your target multiplier (_ x annual expenses) for retirement?

#1: What is (or was for those already retired) your expected multiplier, in regards to annual expenses, for retirement? (assume no pension) Basic goal post is 25x, though I might increase that a bit as I draw closer to retirement. I don't have a set date for my retirement, but when I reach 25x, I'l...
by Ari
Fri Dec 22, 2017 3:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saving for the crash
Replies: 58
Views: 8427

Re: Saving for the crash

Yup. Time in the market, not timing the market. Dry powder loses more money by not being in the market than it gains by buying low.
by Ari
Mon Dec 18, 2017 5:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in "Frontier" Markets
Replies: 22
Views: 2165

Re: Investing in "Frontier" Markets

A lot of these countries seem pretty ok to me. Some of them are EU countries! It's not sudanese warlords or afghani bonds. Sure, they've generally lower investor protections and higher corruption than developed countries, but countries like Malta and Estonia seem very safe to me. Combine it with div...
by Ari
Wed Dec 13, 2017 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 115
Views: 22497

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

Two things I often see on BH: * Bonds are not for return. They are there to dampen the volatility of stocks. Even if they return close to zero, you should still own them. * Gold is not an investment because it doesn't produce returns. It has no place in a buy-and-hold portfolio. I'm assuming these t...
by Ari
Tue Dec 12, 2017 3:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Concerns about investing abroad
Replies: 27
Views: 2767

Re: Concerns about investing abroad

I am not sure what the point of your second point is (so to speak). Of course currency risk occurs if the currency of the underlying asset is different from one's own currency. The accounting currency of the fund is irrelevant. My point was that a eurozone investor, if they want to avoid currency r...
by Ari
Sat Dec 09, 2017 6:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Think you can time the stock market? Look at this chart first"
Replies: 42
Views: 4952

Re: "Think you can time the stock market? Look at this chart first"

This article does nothing to dissuade market timing. You're as likely to miss the best days as the worst.
by Ari
Fri Dec 08, 2017 4:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Financial Shock" wealth
Replies: 33
Views: 6902

Re: "Financial Shock" wealth

Another way to handle this is to avoid the risk of financial shocks. I don't have an emergency fund, but I also don't have a car (no sudden repairs), I don't own my home (ditto), I live in a country with tax-paid healthcare (no healthcare costs) and high unemployment benefits (income would not sink ...