Search found 636 matches

by Ari
Sat Aug 29, 2020 3:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Beater Truck and a FAT 401k...
Replies: 104
Views: 10461

Re: A Beater Truck and a FAT 401k...

Its the Bogleheads "I'm more frugal than you" -off! This time it was a trick question - Trucks get too low of gas mileage and can have higher registration and insurance rates. Whomever didn't say "20 year old Corolla" lost - good luck next time. I’ve never owned a car in my life...
by Ari
Fri Aug 21, 2020 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economist article on bubbles and exuberance
Replies: 65
Views: 6088

Re: Economist article on bubbles and exuberance

stop playing with your money. This is my new favorite Bogleheads catchphrase. Soon we will have boiled down all of BH philosophy into a few catchy one-liners. Invest we must Time in the market, not timing the market Don’t just do something, stand there! When you’ve won the game, why keep playing? B...
by Ari
Sun Aug 16, 2020 6:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 0.5% Rule (SWR) [Safe Withdrawal Rate]
Replies: 419
Views: 24640

Re: The 0.5% Rule (SWR)

The author failed to take into consideration that in 1998, the S&P 500 returned 28.8%. 2020 YTD, it's only 5.76. This means we must multiply the SWR by a further 0.2%, landing us at 0.1% SWR. 0.2% x 0.5% SWR = 0.001% SWR:confused My brilliant satire foiled by nonsensical math. Hoist by my own p...
by Ari
Sun Aug 16, 2020 12:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 0.5% Rule (SWR) [Safe Withdrawal Rate]
Replies: 419
Views: 24640

Re: The 0.5% Rule (SWR)

The author failed to take into consideration that in 1998, the S&P 500 returned 28.8%. 2020 YTD, it's only 5.76. This means we must multiply the SWR by a further 0.2%, landing us at 0.1% SWR.
by Ari
Sat Aug 08, 2020 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stocks - S&P Envy vs 60/40
Replies: 95
Views: 5744

Re: 100% Stocks - S&P Envy vs 60/40

I failed to "time" this post - should have posted this in early April where many BH 100% stocks were feeling jittery yet not admitting ...but I also know many BHs are putting 100% into stocks in March lows investing their Emergency Funds .... My recollection from that time is that the 100...
by Ari
Fri Aug 07, 2020 12:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What did you learn from 2018 in the markets?
Replies: 119
Views: 9964

Re: What did you learn from 2018 in the markets?

I've always been 100% stocks, but this was my first downturn with a significant portfolio. I learned that it doesn't affect me emotionally at all (at least not yet). I look at my portfolio once a month (no auto investing in mutual funds with my broker) and I didn't know that market was going down u...
by Ari
Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Everyone's a Day Trader Now (WSJ article)
Replies: 48
Views: 6419

Re: Everyone's a Day Trader Now (WSJ article)

"Everyone's a Day Trader Now" I'm not. Can't say "everyone" anymore, can you? everyone no, the correct response is the title can only ever have been: "Some are Day Traders Now" Not everyone. Not even "most". You'd need to make sure at least 51% of all people ...
by Ari
Sun Jul 26, 2020 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Everyone's a Day Trader Now (WSJ article)
Replies: 48
Views: 6419

Re: Everyone's a Day Trader Now (WSJ article)

"Everyone's a Day Trader Now" I'm not. Can't say "everyone" anymore, can you? everyone no, the correct response is the title can only ever have been: "Some are Day Traders Now" Not everyone. Not even "most". You'd need to make sure at least 51% of all people ...
by Ari
Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Everyone's a Day Trader Now (WSJ article)
Replies: 48
Views: 6419

Re: Everyone's a Day Trader Now (WSJ article)

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 7:58 pm "Everyone's a Day Trader Now"

I'm not.

Can't say "everyone" anymore, can you?
everyone
by Ari
Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]
Replies: 345
Views: 19194

Re: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]

Are all your friends bogleheads? I don’t know anyone who owns any significant amount of stocks or bonds. A few colleagues buy and sell some individual stocks, but not with more than a couple hundred dollars. Never met anyone who invests in stocks or bonds for retirement, as far as I know. So I gues...
by Ari
Wed Jul 22, 2020 6:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]
Replies: 345
Views: 19194

Re: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]

Late to the party, and I haven’t read all the thread, but one advantage of a 100% stocks portfolio might be psychological. From what I saw during the Corona dip, people with a 100% portfolio seemed to have an easier time staying the course. There was a lot of panicking and selling, but the 100% stoc...
by Ari
Sat Jun 06, 2020 3:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?
Replies: 238
Views: 21472

Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

I had to check just now, but it looks like I have some ways to go before recovering my portfolio, even with contributions and a tiny bit of leveraged market timing that earned me some extra money. So ahead of the index, but a fair bit to go before I'm back to my all-time high. In general, I'm doing ...
by Ari
Thu Jun 04, 2020 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Equity Investors: What are you holding?
Replies: 30
Views: 2900

Re: 100% Equity Investors: What are you holding?

40% Domestic (Sweden) 40% Global 20% Emerging Markets I did some flailing around with different funds in the beginning of my investment career, but I soon ended up with this one and have held it for many years now. I switched the funds when cheaper ones became available, but that's it. Sometimes I h...
by Ari
Fri May 22, 2020 3:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficiency or resiliency in investing, business, personal finance, etc.
Replies: 83
Views: 3867

Re: Efficiency or resiliency in investing, business, personal finance, etc.

Ari, If you have a lot of money, why would you care that your EF earn nothing? Efficiency is no longer your major concern. As you yourself say below, investing or not investing my EF is not likely to have a significant effect on my resilience. In that case, the choice is to earn money from it or no...
by Ari
Thu May 21, 2020 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60
Replies: 152
Views: 13111

Re: Investing in International Stocks

From a geographical perspective, it is the Northern Hemisphere that is dominant. North America and Europe both hold 40.6% and 19.5% respectively of the world’s markets, and the vast majority of Asia’s 33.3% lies north of the equator in places like Shenzhen, Hong Kong, Tokyo, and Shanghai. Surprisin...
by Ari
Thu May 21, 2020 5:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 9621

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

Seems to me there are two things being labelled as "share dilution" in this thread. One is more companies entering the market, thus being included in the index, "diluting" your investment in the existing companies if you hold an index fund. The other is companies issuing new shar...
by Ari
Thu May 21, 2020 2:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficiency or resiliency in investing, business, personal finance, etc.
Replies: 83
Views: 3867

Re: Efficiency or resiliency in investing, business, personal finance, etc.

Oh, and of course, one area where resilience and efficiency go hand in hand is wealth. The best downside protection is having a lot of money, after all. So increasing your net worth will likely be beneficial for both your resiliency and your efficiency, especially if you keep your expenses low. If y...
by Ari
Thu May 21, 2020 1:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficiency or resiliency in investing, business, personal finance, etc.
Replies: 83
Views: 3867

Re: Efficiency or resiliency in investing, business, personal finance, etc.

I think that in some areas of life there are trade-offs between efficiency and resiliency, and in others you can have both. I'm quite resilient in my career. I'm a mechanical engineer, having worked in many diverse industries making me easy to hire. I know many foreign languages, which led me to a t...
by Ari
Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leveraged SMA200 Strategy Back-tested 1929 - 2019
Replies: 97
Views: 7731

Re: Leveraged SMA200 Strategy Back-tested 1929 - 2019

Interesting idea. I am wondering how to actually execute it, because it seems there will be days that SPY crosses the SMA200 line back and forth for many times. I think normally in a strategy like this, you add some space around the line. So it needs to go a little bit below the line before you sel...
by Ari
Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:49 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77953

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Its strange how the worldometer numbers site the Swedish source, but the numbers are totally different. Worldometer reports a record high number of deaths from covid today (185). The swedish source seems to have very different curves. I can't explain the discrepancy. Yeah, that's pretty odd. I can ...
by Ari
Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:40 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77953

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Aren't schools still open there? People eating in restaurants? Haven't seen that in the US for awhile. Yes, but sources in Stockholm reports traffic everywhere has reduced 80-90%. So while people may be "eating in restaurants," they aren't exactly packed. That's about the same as I've not...
by Ari
Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:33 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77953

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Ari, I am more interested in the daily death counts. Do you have the numbers for the last few days? Thanks. KlangFool Like I said above, you can get those at this link: https://fohm.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/68d4537bf2714e63b646c37f152f1392 Look at the graph in the middle. Below...
by Ari
Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:44 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77953

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Seeing as some people expressed interest in the Swedish situation, I thought I'd report the news from today's press conference. It seems clear that the rate of infection has plateaued. Yesterday there were 462 new cases, about the same as March 31. You can see the data here: https://fohm.maps.arcgis...
by Ari
Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:22 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77953

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

What has been clear to researchers and increasingly voiced publically is that a safe vaccine is not right around the corner. Flattening the curve, contact tracing in the face of asymptomatic transmission is a fool's errand. Containment strategies must be replaced by mitigation, lest we destroy the ...
by Ari
Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:43 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77953

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Thus, I would argue that Sweden has 3.5 - 4x more infected people relative to Norway vs reported numbers. Norway too has more infected people, as they can't find everyone infected. But Sweden has 3.5x more. Next, let's look at deaths per 1M: - Sweden: 150, - Norway: 30. So that is 5x. Again, the sa...
by Ari
Sun Apr 19, 2020 3:12 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77953

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Netherlands deaths looked like they peaked about 10 days ago. Have maybe come down. Sweden: biggest day was 4 days ago but with all the noise in the curve it frankly doesn’t look like they’ve peaked yet. In the data I get from Folkhälsoinstitutet, I don't see a peak four days ago. I see a peak at A...
by Ari
Sun Apr 19, 2020 2:20 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77953

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Netherlands deaths looked like they peaked about 10 days ago. Have maybe come down. Sweden: biggest day was 4 days ago but with all the noise in the curve it frankly doesn’t look like they’ve peaked yet. In the data I get from Folkhälsoinstitutet, I don't see a peak four days ago. I see a peak at A...
by Ari
Sun Apr 19, 2020 2:14 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77953

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Ari, Would you mind show me where you get the numbers? I am not quite sure that is true. KlangFool Sure. I get my data from the homepage of Folkhälsoinsititutet, the "Institute of People's Health". The data is updated every day at 14:00 hours CET, meaning the current day's data is incompl...
by Ari
Sun Apr 19, 2020 10:57 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77953

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Ari, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/15/sweden-coronavirus-death-toll-reaches-1000 I am not sure why do you think that the policy works. The death count in Sweden is 10 times of Norway. In order to achieve herd immunity, 60% to 80% of the population needs to be infected. KlangFool See my...
by Ari
Sun Apr 19, 2020 10:37 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77953

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Hope you’re right. Per capita deaths so far in Sweden are higher than in US (though way less then NY). By the numbers it would seem Sweden isn’t doing that well compared to most other places. But it sounds like on the ground things are not too bad. Maybe hospital and ICU capacity is better or the d...
by Ari
Sun Apr 19, 2020 4:26 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77953

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Its like a twelve round fight. Unless there's a knockout (from us or the virus) its gonna go on for a long time. We're just finishing Round 1. After a couple years when the dust has settled I guess we will really know who did well and who didn't. My guess is that cause specific mortality will be pr...
by Ari
Sun Apr 19, 2020 4:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How are you exercising with gym closures
Replies: 111
Views: 6217

Re: How are you exercising with gym closures

I've been continuing to go to the gym. We haven't done any lockdowns here in Sweden, so the gyms (and everything else) has stayed open. My gym isn't that crowded, especially in the morning, and they've upped the cleaning schedule and everyone wipes down the machines very thoroughly. In fact, I'm off...
by Ari
Sun Apr 19, 2020 4:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you comfortable with your emergency fund arrangements?
Replies: 44
Views: 3644

Re: Are you comfortable with your emergency fund arrangements?

Yes, pretty comfortable. My stock portfolio is my emergency fund. At no time during this crisis so far has my stock portfolio been down (compared to the average price I bought the stocks for), so even if I had needed my money, I wouldn't have had to sell stocks when they're down. I did get furloughe...
by Ari
Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What did you learn about investing or building wealth that would have helped you, if you knew about it earlier in life?
Replies: 45
Views: 3273

Re: What did you learn about investing or building wealth that would have helped you, if you knew about it earlier in li

I didn't know that you could invest and build wealth. Once I learned that investing was a thing, at about age 30, I researched it and I think I got most of the important ideas figured out pretty quickly. but nobody told me you could invest in the stock market and make money. Growing up, we talked ab...
by Ari
Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of your paycheck do you invest?
Replies: 268
Views: 17026

Re: What percentage of your paycheck do you invest?

I am completely floored by the responses! Wow. Is it because the above Bogleheads make a very large income? (and what might that be? $150k? $300k? $600k?) I have decent income, though surely not large by Bogleheads standards. I'm a well-payed engineer, and make about 42k/year after taxes (more than...
by Ari
Sat Apr 04, 2020 3:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Margin loan or leveraged ETFs?
Replies: 19
Views: 1374

Re: Margin loan or leveraged ETFs?

Leveraged ETFs perform terribly in a volatile and stagnant market. Seems to me that's pretty likely to be the case in the future. I wouldn't buy it now. Maybe that's market timing, but I think volatility does tend to cluster. We can't tell the direction of the market, but predicting high volatility ...
by Ari
Fri Apr 03, 2020 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So yesterday I leveraged up
Replies: 75
Views: 8185

Re: So yesterday I leveraged up

How much will 5% move the needle? If a strategy is sound why not scale up. As Nicolas said, the risks increase with more leverage. With the study I linked to above in mind, I realize that returns are actually less after smaller dips, but more after larger dips, so I think I'll cool off on this stra...
by Ari
Fri Apr 03, 2020 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another way a crash manifests itself
Replies: 20
Views: 1860

Re: Another way a crash manifests itself

So - while stocks will stay at the current price, the $$ value of the stocks will actually get you less, so really, same effect as a crash. Thing is, though, when you own stocks, you don't own the dollar value they show you when you log in to your brokerage. You own shares in companies. If the doll...
by Ari
Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Index Funds Not True Buy-and-Hold Investments?
Replies: 47
Views: 3350

Re: Are Index Funds Not True Buy-an-Hold Investments?

Good point. Strict buy and hold is perhaps merely a Platonic form. Total market index funds maintain buy and hold in the strictest sense possible. I guess I wonder to what extent inflows from new investors in the fund affect the fund's efficiency with respect to previously invested shareholders. Do...
by Ari
Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand this market--or How can S&P be 2600 today?
Replies: 109
Views: 9543

Re: Help me understand this market--or How can S&P be 2600 today?

A bear market goes through various phases. At this point we are done with the initial shock and denial phases, and moved to acceptance. Market is in stabilization mode, trying to find a place to settle before an actual recovery can begin. The recovery will start only when this is all over and we op...
by Ari
Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So yesterday I leveraged up
Replies: 75
Views: 8185

Re: So yesterday I leveraged up

What broker let's you borrow at 0%? ditto ditto ditto or is it tritto? I answered that above. It's a Swedish broker called Avanza. I can only borrow up to 50,000 SEK (about 5,000 USD) at 0%. After that, up to 25% of my portfolio, it's 1%. After that, up to 50%, it's 2% interest. After that, up to 9...
by Ari
Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So yesterday I leveraged up
Replies: 75
Views: 8185

Re: So yesterday I leveraged up

I just checked with my broker (Interactive Brokers) to understand the margin requirements and made the below example: Let's say you have the following: Equity 100k Loan 20k Total 120k Leverage = 120% https://abload.de/thumb/marginolji0.jpg The price of a share initially valued @100$ can fall down t...
by Ari
Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand this market--or How can S&P be 2600 today?
Replies: 109
Views: 9543

Re: Help me understand this market--or How can S&P be 2600 today?

Stop trying to grasp the market. It will fight you with every fiber of its being. This forum is right now full of people thinking they know where the market is going, and it's just not cooperating. It's interesting to watch. The market does what the market does. We always manage to come up with reas...
by Ari
Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So yesterday I leveraged up
Replies: 75
Views: 8185

Re: So yesterday I leveraged up

Ari, Sort of crazy place to post this. Good luck Doesn't seem actionable to me, or useful. Is there a question in this wall of text somewhere?! Nope. It's a real-time example of a strategy and its performance during a volatile time of the market. I've personally found it educating to read such acco...
by Ari
Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So yesterday I leveraged up
Replies: 75
Views: 8185

Re: So yesterday I leveraged up

Possibly a useful formula here: a margin call comes at the lower security price of, e.g., $2500 * (1 - 0.85) / (1 - 0.6) = $937.5, where $2500 is the price of the security when bought, 85% is the percentage of equity when bought, and 60% is the minimum equity required for maintenance margin. Thanks...
by Ari
Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So yesterday I leveraged up
Replies: 75
Views: 8185

Re: So yesterday I leveraged up

Greed. Is that the premise for your leverage? Yup, pretty much. It's the premise for my investing in the first place. Why not provide us with particular examples of your leverage. Then we can provide an analysis. I'd be interested. (Gordon Gecko) Not sure what you mean by "particular examples&...
by Ari
Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So yesterday I leveraged up
Replies: 75
Views: 8185

Re: So yesterday I leveraged up

After buying a bit during the dip, getting my paycheck last Friday I decided not to buy, but rather let it be used to reduce my leverage. Now being rather close to the 0% interest level, I decided to sell off a bit to get back to that level, thus deleveraging. That order will process tomorrow. All i...
by Ari
Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I won the game but kept playing
Replies: 133
Views: 12141

Re: I won the game but kept playing

I have to ask, how are guys getting such large portfolios at such young ages? I mean 10 years out of college, you’d still have to invest $70k a year to come close to $1M. That is what you’d start out saving right out of college. $2M? That’s $140k a year! So you either have exceptionally high income...