Search found 487 matches

by Ari
Fri Sep 14, 2018 5:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slight fear of investing in general now
Replies: 20
Views: 2128

Re: Slight fear of investing in general now

I wonder if there's someone like the OP, who instead wakes up in the middle of the night in a cold sweat - "I wonder if things are much, much more resiliently on an upward trend than anyone realizes?" I don't wake up in the middle of the night, but I have a feeling that just never really goes away ...
by Ari
Wed Sep 05, 2018 1:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1051
Views: 82293

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Remember adherents of investing internationally, on this website at least, invest by world cap. If a company is being propped up, as long as it is being traded on the public markets, it cannot possibly have a market cap of zero. Let's say company B really ought to be eliminated by Company A in an e...
by Ari
Mon Sep 03, 2018 4:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doomsayers and market prophets
Replies: 1
Views: 491

Doomsayers and market prophets

I really enjoyed this article listing doomsday prophesies from the last three years. It's good to remember how ubiquitous they are when someone claims authority on the basis of having predicted the 2008 crash. 2015 [1 Mar 2015] Stock-market crash of 2016: The countdown begins [17 May 2015] Countdown...
by Ari
Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1051
Views: 82293

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

So perhaps the better argument is to say when WOULD I invest in international. I would invest in international when those internal barriers are gone, when the international zone is a monolithic entity, and when International starts posting 10% a year CAGR nominal. This is an incredibly odd way of l...
by Ari
Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1051
Views: 82293

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

http://shiller.barclays.com/SM/12/en/indices/static/historic-ratios.app Really cool link. Thanks for sharing. Agreed; that's very interesting. According to this, my home market of Sweden briefly reached Japanese levels of CAPE, at over 79 in February 2000. I wasn't investing back then, but still, I...
by Ari
Fri Aug 17, 2018 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1051
Views: 82293

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

20+ years of inferior International performance... At what point does our own script change about International? If it lags for 30 years, 40 years? Never...? Looking at Portfoliovisualizer of a graph of the last 20 years of US vs. World Ex US, What I can see is that World Ex US takes the lead, then...
by Ari
Thu Jul 26, 2018 12:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heresy: is using a SP500 index still a valid strategy ?
Replies: 28
Views: 4699

Re: Heresy: is using a SP500 index still a valid strategy ?

As has already been pointed out: 1. It's not an atypical situation, just business as usual. It's pretty much mathematically certain that in a cap-weighted index where some companies are much larger than others, and some companies are doing much better than others, then the section "large companies t...
by Ari
Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018
Replies: 76
Views: 10942

Re: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018

It seems to me that if we have an index of stocks with two characteristics: 1. The stocks have very varying size, with some very large and many very small. 2. The stocks have very varying results, with some going very well and others very badly. ... then the above result would necessarily be the cas...
by Ari
Sun Jun 24, 2018 4:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heavy in equities?
Replies: 46
Views: 4967

Re: Heavy in equities?

I'm with AlohaJoe and Estrada on this one. I hold 100% equities because I don't think volatility is a good measure for risk, in my personal situation. I believe that the best downside protection is having a lot of money. Crashes do decimate stocks, but in general, they are preceded by a large runup....
by Ari
Mon Jun 04, 2018 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Financial Illiteracy’s High Cost
Replies: 30
Views: 4014

Re: Larry Swedroe: Financial Illiteracy’s High Cost

Regarding the study, I found it interesting that the more financially literate were more active in their investments, changing their allocations more, and also got better returns, than the less financially literate, who generally stayed put in their investments. And the more literate did not have mo...
by Ari
Mon Jun 04, 2018 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Financial Illiteracy’s High Cost
Replies: 30
Views: 4014

Re: Larry Swedroe: Financial Illiteracy’s High Cost

Here are the questions that gauge literacy: == Financial Literacy The variable Financial Literacy equals the number of correct answers to the following questions: 1) Suppose that you have 1000 Euro in a savings account that offers a return of 2% per year. After five years, assuming that you have no...
by Ari
Sat Jun 02, 2018 8:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Milestones on the way to FI [Financial Independence]
Replies: 33
Views: 4460

Re: Milestones on the way to FI

Normal but big expenses like a repair/purchase of home appliances or automobiles do not make you worry about how to pay for them. That could be a good one, though a bit vague. Personally, I've never had to do repairs (I'm a renter), bought home appliances (minimalist renter!) or bought a car (never...
by Ari
Sat Jun 02, 2018 8:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Milestones on the way to FI [Financial Independence]
Replies: 33
Views: 4460

Re: Milestones on the way to FI

Ari....You might want to consider using your 'Funding Ratio' as your yardstick. I have found that metric very helpful, and humbling. Bobcat2 has written about this a lot, and it has significantly influenced my thinking. And saving habits. I'm looking more for discreet milestones than yardsticks. I ...
by Ari
Sat Jun 02, 2018 1:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Milestones on the way to FI [Financial Independence]
Replies: 33
Views: 4460

Re: Milestones on the way to FI

Some good milestones here! I remembered two more: * First time my passive income (calculated with 4% rule) exceeded my rent. I'm now living "rent free" so to speak. * This hasn't happened yet, but almost: I check my portfolio balance each month after having invested a large part of my salary. In the...
by Ari
Fri Jun 01, 2018 3:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Milestones on the way to FI [Financial Independence]
Replies: 33
Views: 4460

Re: Milestones on the way to FI

youngpleb wrote:
Fri Jun 01, 2018 3:07 pm
My current targeted FI milestone is getting my total portfolio to $100,000 because, as Charlie Munger says, "The first 100k is a b*tch."
It's true! Since I don't count in USD, I never really noticed when I had reached 100k USD, but looking back, yes, it was a … pain. :)
by Ari
Fri Jun 01, 2018 3:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Milestones on the way to FI [Financial Independence]
Replies: 33
Views: 4460

Re: Milestones on the way to FI

If you are a homeowner: When your net worth (including equity in home) goes positive. I made a chart that showed me the progress to that crossover point. Not sure I understood this (but then I've never been a homeowner). If you borrow 100k and buy a house worth 100k, surely this doesn't bring your ...
by Ari
Fri Jun 01, 2018 2:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Milestones on the way to FI [Financial Independence]
Replies: 33
Views: 4460

Milestones on the way to FI [Financial Independence]

The road to becoming financially independent (FI) is usually quite long. I find it helpful to have small milestones to look forward to. Some milestones are quite simple. My first million (SEK. I'm far from a million USD) was a pretty big milestone for me. Another one was when I looked back and saw t...
by Ari
Tue May 29, 2018 1:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New to this - been looking at some Active Managed
Replies: 22
Views: 1427

Re: New to this - been looking at some Active Managed

Suggesting active management is likely to receive very critical, often sarcastic and sometimes downright hostile responses on these forums, which I think this thread shows some evidence of. Nevertheless, I think there are some arguments against active investing that you should consider that have not...
by Ari
Tue May 08, 2018 5:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does stock buyback benefit investors?
Replies: 78
Views: 6867

Re: How does stock buyback benefit investors?

If the company can continue to produce the same amount of earnings, there are fewer owners to share those earnings. If I had been content to pay $20 for every $1 of earnings (forward p/e of 20), then presumably I’d pay more for the share since the same earnings are spread over fewer shares. I think...
by Ari
Thu May 03, 2018 1:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Everything You Need to Know on an Index Card
Replies: 33
Views: 4336

Re: Everything You Need to Know on an Index Card

An index card has two sides, right? Outer game (what to do): Earn as much as you can Spend as little as you can Invest the difference in a low-cost, global stock index fund Don't sell unless you need the money urgently Once you have 25x yearly expenses, you are (barely) FI. In FI, you can spend 4% o...
by Ari
Tue Apr 24, 2018 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fun Money
Replies: 45
Views: 3252

Re: Fun Money

This has continually bugged me. How can someone preach that a 0.5-1% extra ER will crush your portfolio while putting a small chunk of your portfolio entirely at risk in other assets. If you only put 5% of your portfolio in nonindexed assets that tracks at 80% of market returns, you’d have essentia...
by Ari
Thu Apr 12, 2018 12:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets tilt
Replies: 37
Views: 4022

Re: Emerging markets tilt

20% EM
Rationale: They are riskier and I expect to be rewarded for that in the long term.
Prognosis: I don't do prognosis.
by Ari
Fri Apr 06, 2018 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle on stock turbulence: ‘never seen a market this volatile to this extent in my career’
Replies: 88
Views: 13433

Re: Bogle on stock turbulence: ‘never seen a market this volatile to this extent in my career’

I honestly hadn't noticed. A good global spread of my investments and not reading the news means that the only way I find out about volatile markets is reading about them on Bogleheads.
by Ari
Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is technical analysis all smoke and mirrors?
Replies: 62
Views: 6152

Re: Is technical analysis all smoke and mirrors?

but Larry Swedroe has come full circle on the topic and now is in favor of it. This is an honest question: then why does he bother writing and advising others instead of trading constantly and becoming fabulously wealthy? Where does this idea come from that anyone who can make money investing in an...
by Ari
Sat Mar 17, 2018 4:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No risk retirement withdraw strategy - WARM
Replies: 35
Views: 4552

Re: No risk retirement withdraw strategy - WARM

That's a good point. I thought about that as well, but if we manage to escape aging, then I would assume we would be relatively healthy to go back to work to make up for the lost money. But with the rise of AI and robotics, the "work" will have totally different meaning by then. Escaping aging migh...
by Ari
Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No risk retirement withdraw strategy - WARM
Replies: 35
Views: 4552

Re: No risk retirement withdraw strategy - WARM

In this article, a couple in their 50’s have a 2 million dollars nest egg from which they’re withdrawing $40k a year. So they should be good for 50 years. Simple. No advisors. No stock market risk. It puts you in the control, instead of external factors like the market or the economy. The article g...
by Ari
Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International again?
Replies: 224
Views: 24987

Re: Why International again?

I'm currently holding my nose while my strategy forces me to have exposure as high as 18% to US equities... I know what you mean. :) I'm 20% US and staying the course is not easy, but I'm not going to try to time this. Just happy that my allocation keeps me with plenty of other exposures to diversi...
by Ari
Mon Mar 12, 2018 4:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International again?
Replies: 224
Views: 24987

Re: Why International again?

"Past results are no guarantee for future returns" It depends. Sometimes our investment decisions are based on the past. The number one reason given for using "passive" instead of "active" is that only a few [actively managed funds] have managed to beat their index counterpart. So, based on past pe...
by Ari
Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Give me the long-term predictability of shares, at any age
Replies: 14
Views: 1821

Re: Give me the long-term predictability of shares, at any age

It might seem strange, at first sight, but most people with a $1 million portfolio wouldn't project ahead assuming they only possess a $500 thousands portfolio. So, if a crisis happens and the portfolio drops to $500 thousands, they'll feel that they've sustained a significant loss, probably equati...
by Ari
Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International again?
Replies: 224
Views: 24987

Re: Why International again?

In portfoliovisualizer.com backtest portfolio asset class allocation, I enter 10,000 set to maximum date range, defaults to 1986. Portfolio 1: 100% US Stock Market. Final balance: 250,840. CAGR 10.56. Stdev 15.01. Portfolio 2: 100% ex-US Stock Market. Final balance: 102,288. CAGR 7.52. Stdev 17.88....
by Ari
Fri Mar 09, 2018 5:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International again?
Replies: 224
Views: 24987

Re: Why International again?

The world market portfolio has historically outperformed the vast majority of single country markets. A better way to put it: The CAGR (compounded annual growth rate) of the world market portfolio is significantly higher than the CAGR for the average single-country market portfolio. And more import...
by Ari
Fri Mar 09, 2018 5:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International again?
Replies: 224
Views: 24987

Re: Why International again?

The world market portfolio has historically outperformed the vast majority of single country markets. A few countries have managed to outperform it historically (among them my home country of Sweden). If you are a skilled country-picker, it seems reasonable to choose to invest in the country or coun...
by Ari
Fri Mar 09, 2018 2:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Give me the long-term predictability of shares, at any age
Replies: 14
Views: 1821

Re: Give me the long-term predictability of shares, at any age

Yeah, it seems strange to me to say that the problem is that suddenly you have a lot of money that you risk losing. It seems like a nice problem to have.
by Ari
Fri Dec 22, 2017 3:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is or was your target multiplier (_ x annual expenses) for retirement?
Replies: 41
Views: 5846

Re: What is or was your target multiplier (_ x annual expenses) for retirement?

#1: What is (or was for those already retired) your expected multiplier, in regards to annual expenses, for retirement? (assume no pension) Basic goal post is 25x, though I might increase that a bit as I draw closer to retirement. I don't have a set date for my retirement, but when I reach 25x, I'l...
by Ari
Fri Dec 22, 2017 3:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saving for the crash
Replies: 58
Views: 8392

Re: Saving for the crash

Yup. Time in the market, not timing the market. Dry powder loses more money by not being in the market than it gains by buying low.
by Ari
Mon Dec 18, 2017 5:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in "Frontier" Markets
Replies: 22
Views: 2080

Re: Investing in "Frontier" Markets

A lot of these countries seem pretty ok to me. Some of them are EU countries! It's not sudanese warlords or afghani bonds. Sure, they've generally lower investor protections and higher corruption than developed countries, but countries like Malta and Estonia seem very safe to me. Combine it with div...
by Ari
Wed Dec 13, 2017 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 115
Views: 22281

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

Two things I often see on BH: * Bonds are not for return. They are there to dampen the volatility of stocks. Even if they return close to zero, you should still own them. * Gold is not an investment because it doesn't produce returns. It has no place in a buy-and-hold portfolio. I'm assuming these t...
by Ari
Tue Dec 12, 2017 3:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Concerns about investing abroad
Replies: 27
Views: 2753

Re: Concerns about investing abroad

I am not sure what the point of your second point is (so to speak). Of course currency risk occurs if the currency of the underlying asset is different from one's own currency. The accounting currency of the fund is irrelevant. My point was that a eurozone investor, if they want to avoid currency r...
by Ari
Sat Dec 09, 2017 6:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Think you can time the stock market? Look at this chart first"
Replies: 42
Views: 4931

Re: "Think you can time the stock market? Look at this chart first"

This article does nothing to dissuade market timing. You're as likely to miss the best days as the worst.
by Ari
Fri Dec 08, 2017 4:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Financial Shock" wealth
Replies: 33
Views: 6841

Re: "Financial Shock" wealth

Another way to handle this is to avoid the risk of financial shocks. I don't have an emergency fund, but I also don't have a car (no sudden repairs), I don't own my home (ditto), I live in a country with tax-paid healthcare (no healthcare costs) and high unemployment benefits (income would not sink ...
by Ari
Mon Dec 04, 2017 4:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any thoughts on The Aurora Report? [Arora Report]
Replies: 54
Views: 14238

Re: Any thoughts on The Aurora Report? [Arora Report]

In many respects, that perspective negates the entire idea of Capitalism. But clearly, some companies are better than others. Some succeed and some fail. Some produce vast wealth and others go bankrupt. So I truly don't understand the mantra on this site that it is pointless to pick individual stoc...
by Ari
Sat Nov 25, 2017 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The ‘Vanguard effect’ means your investments could soon cost nothing
Replies: 4
Views: 1692

Re: The ‘Vanguard effect’ means your investments could soon cost nothing

40% of my portfolio is invested in a fund with 0% ER. I know of at least two others. They are used by brokers to entice investors to come to their platforms, where you will hopefully make other trades as well.
by Ari
Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed percentage withdrawal of maximum portfolio value?
Replies: 14
Views: 1593

Fixed percentage withdrawal of maximum portfolio value?

I enjoy thinking about withdrawal methods. It's fun. I'm some way away from starting to withdraw, but when I do, I'm hoping I'll find a method that will allow my portfolio to grow over time even as I withdraw. I will probably have a long retirement and want my withdrawals to increase over time, maki...
by Ari
Tue Nov 14, 2017 2:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Case Against Over Weighting International Equity"
Replies: 11
Views: 1720

Re: "A Case Against Over Weighting International Equity"

When valuations are discussed, it seems people are always talking about them returning or not returning to the mean/historical average. This might be relevant if you're talking about a single market over time, but I find it less important when comparing different markets. All else being equal, a mar...
by Ari
Tue Nov 14, 2017 1:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett 90/10 Portfolio vs Target Retirement
Replies: 33
Views: 7255

Re: Buffett 90/10 Portfolio vs Target Retirement

Total World seems like a good fund to hold for the OP. It adheres to Boglehead principles better than Bogle and Buffet do, and it's still massively overweighted in the US (USA is less than a quarter of the world economy, but is 50% of publicly traded companies). US-only funds and non-US funds diverg...
by Ari
Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The small-cap effect really has failed to materialize"
Replies: 37
Views: 6502

Re: "The small-cap effect really has failed to materialize"

In the case of small-caps, a big problem is that basically any time period that includes 1975-1983 supports the effect... and any time period that omits it, doesn't. I learned that from Siegel's "Stocks for the Long Run," which has an interesting chart: http://i62.tinypic.com/bhj14n.png Eyeballing ...
by Ari
Wed Oct 25, 2017 2:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theoretical — Lump Sum Investing Your Lifetime Earnings
Replies: 11
Views: 1708

Re: Theoretical — Lump Sum Investing Your Lifetime Earnings

Of course! Giving them a lot more time to compound should mean I get a lot more money in the end. I'd also have a lot more security, seeing as I'd probably be more or less financially independent.
by Ari
Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Investment Lessons From The 21st Century"
Replies: 16
Views: 2512

Re: "Investing: What We've Learned This Century"

An arguable point. Perhaps it would be more useful; but if not lump sum, what algorithm would you use to increase utility for the “average investor” while making comparisons possible? One dollar (or a hundred euros, or whatever) invested at the end of each month during the period examined, for exam...
by Ari
Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Investment Lessons From The 21st Century"
Replies: 16
Views: 2512

Re: "Investing: What We've Learned This Century"

However, that’s not what the author has concluded (see below). I suggest a re-read. Conclusions from Allan Roth • Understand that stocks are risky and invest accordingly. • Understand how long your long run is. • Don't invest based on the recent past. • High-quality bonds act as a shock absorber an...
by Ari
Thu Oct 19, 2017 3:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Investment Lessons From The 21st Century"
Replies: 16
Views: 2512

Re: "Investing: What We've Learned This Century"

Start measuring from the peak of one of the biggest runups of the last 100 years and just before the crash. Not very suprising that stocks don't do well. Fortunately, most investors will not suddenly invest all of their savings in a lump sum at one specific point (and even if they do, chances are sl...