Search found 1757 matches

by corn18
Wed Sep 02, 2020 2:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: State Residency - When does it change?
Replies: 22
Views: 1908

Re: State Residency - When does it change?

April it is. And we didn't get driver's licenses and tags because they were closed for COVID. I drive by every day and the line is still out the door. I'll get them when I get them. Out the door doesn't necessarily mean anything depending on how they're doing social distancing. I was just at a plac...
by corn18
Wed Sep 02, 2020 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rising inflation with low or no yield in fixed income
Replies: 61
Views: 2722

Re: Rising inflation with low or no yield in fixed income

I am keeping my 2.75% fixed rate 30 year mortgage for the time being. Seems like a good inflation hedge.
by corn18
Wed Sep 02, 2020 1:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: State Residency - When does it change?
Replies: 22
Views: 1908

Re: State Residency - When does it change?

April it is. And we didn't get driver's licenses and tags because they were closed for COVID. I drive by every day and the line is still out the door. I'll get them when I get them.
by corn18
Tue Sep 01, 2020 6:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: State Residency - When does it change?
Replies: 22
Views: 1908

Re: State Residency - When does it change?

Watty wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 6:02 pm When did you give up your apartment in Texas?

That might make a difference too.
May
by corn18
Tue Sep 01, 2020 5:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: State Residency - When does it change?
Replies: 22
Views: 1908

State Residency - When does it change?

I moved from TX to OH this year. TX has no state tax, OH does. I did not change jobs, I still work the same job that is based in TX, I just work remote. I am working on my tax estimates for 2020 and am wondering when I became an OH resident for tax purposes. Here's the timeline: Mar - sold TX house ...
by corn18
Sun Aug 30, 2020 10:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: time to invest cash reserves?
Replies: 54
Views: 3819

Re: time to invest cash reserves?

Please provide data. The data that I found does not support your hypothesis. If you're talking about late 70's inflation, you have one data point. I am struggling to find any hyperinflation in 2000-2010. https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/members/35183-albums227-picture2236.jpg corn18, In summ...
by corn18
Sun Aug 30, 2020 10:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: time to invest cash reserves?
Replies: 54
Views: 3819

Re: time to invest cash reserves?

Please provide data. The data that I found does not support your hypothesis. If you're talking about late 70's inflation, you have one data point. I am struggling to find any hyperinflation in 2000-2010.

Image
by corn18
Sun Aug 30, 2020 10:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: time to invest cash reserves?
Replies: 54
Views: 3819

Re: time to invest cash reserves?

CASH for deflation. Gold/Silver for hyperinflation. <<We don't hold precious metals, and I'm not interested in starting now.>> Then, your assumption is hyperinflation is not possible. I know that I know nothing. Hence, I keep some Gold/Silver as my hyperinflation insurance. KlangFool We hold TIPS. ...
by corn18
Sun Aug 30, 2020 10:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: time to invest cash reserves?
Replies: 54
Views: 3819

Re: time to invest cash reserves?

CASH for deflation. Gold/Silver for hyperinflation. <<We don't hold precious metals, and I'm not interested in starting now.>> Then, your assumption is hyperinflation is not possible. I know that I know nothing. Hence, I keep some Gold/Silver as my hyperinflation insurance. KlangFool We hold TIPS. ...
by corn18
Sun Aug 30, 2020 7:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: time to invest cash reserves?
Replies: 54
Views: 3819

Re: time to invest cash reserves?

The best time to invest money is when you have it. The best time to withdraw money is when you need it. Pretty simple.
by corn18
Fri Aug 07, 2020 8:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: In retirement, a $100 monthly expense needs $30,000 in your portfolio
Replies: 179
Views: 22822

Re: In retirement, a $100 monthly expense needs $30,000 in your portfolio

Also, it's wrong to use the 4% rule to calculate savings amount for mortgage payments. Since 1) the mortgage has definite end, which is most likely less than 30 years or more of the expected life expectancy. 2) the mortgage payment will not increase year after year with inflation. This is the reaso...
by corn18
Wed Aug 05, 2020 2:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: In retirement, a $100 monthly expense needs $30,000 in your portfolio
Replies: 179
Views: 22822

Re: In retirement, a $100 monthly expense needs $30,000 in your portfolio

This chart helps me decide whether I should keep working or not. Fat FIRE is my plan as of today. What is the solid blue line -- "Retirement spend" -- and how is it calculated/projected? The blue line is how much I could spend. It is calculated with a giant spreadsheet but is basically the output o...
by corn18
Wed Aug 05, 2020 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: In retirement, a $100 monthly expense needs $30,000 in your portfolio
Replies: 179
Views: 22822

Re: In retirement, a $100 monthly expense needs $30,000 in your portfolio

This chart helps me decide whether I should keep working or not. Fat FIRE is my plan as of today. What is the solid blue line -- "Retirement spend" -- and how is it calculated/projected? The blue line is how much I could spend. It is calculated with a giant spreadsheet but is basically the output o...
by corn18
Wed Aug 05, 2020 8:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: In retirement, a $100 monthly expense needs $30,000 in your portfolio
Replies: 179
Views: 22822

Re: In retirement, a $100 monthly expense needs $30,000 in your portfolio

This chart helps me decide whether I should keep working or not. Fat FIRE is my plan as of today. Your lean FIRE is our fat FIRE if I am reading that chart correctly. hahaha, ditto. But we also have pensions, so our spends will be higher than our portfolio draw. And corn, what happens each spring t...
by corn18
Wed Aug 05, 2020 6:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: In retirement, a $100 monthly expense needs $30,000 in your portfolio
Replies: 179
Views: 22822

Re: In retirement, a $100 monthly expense needs $30,000 in your portfolio

This chart helps me decide whether I should keep working or not. Fat FIRE is my plan as of today. Apparently what I consider FIRE is the Fattest Person on the Planet FIRE We call that Wall-e FIRE. :sharebeer https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-w73CC0swX24/VZLycd83iZI/AAAAAAAAHOg/KFW6svh4ZF4/s1600/Wall-E%2Bo...
by corn18
Tue Aug 04, 2020 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happens if you run out of money in retirement?
Replies: 175
Views: 15418

Re: What happens if you run out of money in retirement?

My mom is 82 and lives on a $1200 SS check each month (no savings, house belongs to neighbors). How much more out of money are we talking? She gets subsidized utilities, food and property tax. She still works grooming dogs, boarding dogs and doing animal husbandry for a dog breeder. Makes $200-$400 ...
by corn18
Mon Aug 03, 2020 4:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: In retirement, a $100 monthly expense needs $30,000 in your portfolio
Replies: 179
Views: 22822

Re: In retirement, a $100 monthly expense needs $30,000 in your portfolio

This chart helps me decide whether I should keep working or not. Fat FIRE is my plan as of today.

Image
by corn18
Mon Aug 03, 2020 3:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: In retirement, a $100 monthly expense needs $30,000 in your portfolio
Replies: 179
Views: 22822

Re: In retirement, a $100 monthly expense needs $30,000 in your portfolio

I'll repost this because it really matters to me. I can spend more but then I have to work more. I was visiting my mom this past weekend and she lives on $1,200 / mo SS and a few hundred for what she makes from grooming and boarding dogs. She is 82 and very happy. We talked about me retiring and I t...
by corn18
Wed Jul 29, 2020 2:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I coat my new garage floor with something?
Replies: 27
Views: 3086

Re: Should I coat my new garage floor with something?

PescadorPete wrote: Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:28 pm No... it's a garage.
That is exactly what my wife said!
by corn18
Wed Jul 29, 2020 12:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I coat my new garage floor with something?
Replies: 27
Views: 3086

Re: Should I coat my new garage floor with something?

When you say "new house" do you mean literally a new house with a freshly poured, never driven / parked on concrete garage floor? Yes = sure put the coating on it. No = cleaning the concrete enough that the epoxy coating "takes" permanently can be an enormous headache. Brand new, never driven on. B...
by corn18
Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I coat my new garage floor with something?
Replies: 27
Views: 3086

Should I coat my new garage floor with something?

We are closing on our new house 6 Aug. It has a 3 car garage with a standard smooth concrete floor. We are in the midwest, so some snow. We keep our garage very neat and tidy but over the years it seems to get rubber marks and the odd oil/grease spill on it. Wouldn't mind getting the floor finished ...
by corn18
Mon Jul 27, 2020 4:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is 5 year rule applies to mega backdoor Roth contribution?
Replies: 6
Views: 677

Re: Is 5 year rule applies to mega backdoor Roth contribution?

Hard to tell exactly what you are asking as there are two 5 year rules. The below always helps me figure these things out: ORDER OF DISTRIBUTIONS Regular contributions Taxable portion of first conversion Nontaxable portion of first conversion Each subsequent conversion, in order, with the taxable po...
by corn18
Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule - confidence poll
Replies: 457
Views: 26942

Re: 4% rule - confidence poll

Here's a model using CAPE that some people were still using in 2013 10-year total return estimate = 1.06 * (15/ShillerPE)^(1/10) – 1 + dividend yield(decimal) The reason they used this? Because it fit the data. For example, at the 1942 market low, the Shiller P/E was 7.5 and the dividend yield was ...
by corn18
Wed Jul 22, 2020 8:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: For 60k, a X5 or Tesla model Y?
Replies: 63
Views: 6467

Re: For 60k, a X5 or Tesla model Y?

ICE cars will be like flip phones in 5 years. Funny, I heard this same sentiment 5 years ago. I'm sure I'll hear it again in 5 years. :) The giant truck stops will now be full of people super charging and eating granola bars. Each one will have a 20 megawatt power plant next to it. Because, you kno...
by corn18
Tue Jul 21, 2020 6:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: For 60k, a X5 or Tesla model Y?
Replies: 63
Views: 6467

Re: For 60k, a X5 or Tesla model Y?

I drove 1,000 miles from Dallas to Cincinnati in 15 hours with 2 gas stops. How the hell do you do that in a Tesla?
by corn18
Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where is your fixed income invested?
Replies: 71
Views: 5360

Re: Where is your fixed income invested?

*My megacorp 401k deleted their SV fund because the corporate investment committee decided the fund costs were too high. They offered an intermediate term bond index instead Did the value drop? like other thread I posted in my last post? I looked at that thread. The employer bailed on the SV fund a...
by corn18
Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where is your fixed income invested?
Replies: 71
Views: 5360

Where is your fixed income invested?

I was wondering where everyone keeps their fixed income (e.g. the 40 part of 60/40 or whatever your fixed income allocation is). Up until Apr, all of my 40% was in total bond index funds in my 401k. We went through a merger and picked up a decent stable value fund so I moved everything over to that....
by corn18
Mon Jul 20, 2020 5:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why make a written financial plan?
Replies: 39
Views: 2468

Re: Why make a written financial plan?

I have a one page plan we wrote down years ago to keep me from doing stupid things. I love to break things that aren't broken. I also have an 8 page diatribe titled "Corn's dead, now what?". This is for my wife so she knows she isn't broke if I die. Kids are off on their own, so that simplifies thin...
by corn18
Mon Jul 20, 2020 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP Rollover to Vanguard or TD Ameritrade
Replies: 19
Views: 1479

Re: TSP Rollover to Vanguard or TD Ameritrade

Vanguard is legendary for it's low cost funds. I don’t think anything is meaningfully cheaper than TSP funds. Why do you want to roll them over? Gone are the days where tsp is the cheapest game in town. You can get equally cheap indexes with full transparency on holdings and far better and simpler ...
by corn18
Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule - confidence poll
Replies: 457
Views: 26942

Re: 4% rule - confidence poll

Not likely... it would be pretty tough for a 60/40 portfolio pulling 4% starting in 2011 to fail. That portfolio has probably tripled in value even after withdrawals.. At least doubled. So if someone started with $1 million in 2011, they have $2 million+ at this point, and only 21 years to go. No i...
by corn18
Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For me, putting cash into bonds doesn't make sense when I have a mortgage
Replies: 75
Views: 7538

Re: For me, putting cash into bonds doesn't make sense when I have a mortgage

Thank you all for an interesting thread with lots to think about. Forgive me if these are novice questions, and if so, I hope they can be easily answered. First, why is there not more discussion about the extra gain in equity when paying a mortgage down? The money from selling bonds goes somewhere ...
by corn18
Sun Jul 19, 2020 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule - confidence poll
Replies: 457
Views: 26942

Re: 4% rule - confidence poll

That said, I think that it's insane for anyone to to decide on day 1 of retirement how much they will withdraw every year, adjusted for inflation, for the next 30 years from their portfolio of stocks, bonds, etc. There is just too much uncertainty, probably on the upside, to do anything like that. ...
by corn18
Sun Jul 19, 2020 11:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why Buy TIPS Bonds Now?
Replies: 19
Views: 1549

Re: Why Buy TIPS Bonds Now?

If you buy $10k of TIPS fund, you may not ever get your principal back. A person who wants to avoid this possibility should not buy a TIPS fund, or indeed bond funds of any kind, and also not stocks, real estate, precious metals, timberland, or old cars. That investor should also be careful that be...
by corn18
Sun Jul 19, 2020 8:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why Buy TIPS Bonds Now?
Replies: 19
Views: 1549

Re: Why Buy TIPS Bonds Now?

What real interest rate do you think you are locking in with the various other choices in fixed income? After you tabulate those numbers and account for default and duration risk, then locate your money where you think it is at best advantage. Note that historically there has been almost no premium...
by corn18
Sat Jul 18, 2020 11:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For me, putting cash into bonds doesn't make sense when I have a mortgage
Replies: 75
Views: 7538

Re: For me, putting cash into bonds doesn't make sense when I have a mortgage

All of my bonds are in my 401k which I cannot access without severe penalties. I did this to minimize growth in my tax deferred account. My taxable and Roth accounts are 100% stock. For me, I can’t pay down my mortgage with my bonds although I would like to. Sure you can, just sell the bonds in tax...
by corn18
Sat Jul 18, 2020 10:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For me, putting cash into bonds doesn't make sense when I have a mortgage
Replies: 75
Views: 7538

Re: For me, putting cash into bonds doesn't make sense when I have a mortgage

All of my bonds are in my 401k which I cannot access without severe penalties. I did this to minimize growth in my tax deferred account. My taxable and Roth accounts are 100% stock. For me, I can’t pay down my mortgage with my bonds although I would like to. Sure you can, just sell the bonds in tax...
by corn18
Sat Jul 18, 2020 10:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For me, putting cash into bonds doesn't make sense when I have a mortgage
Replies: 75
Views: 7538

Re: For me, putting cash into bonds doesn't make sense when I have a mortgage

All of my bonds are in my 401k which I cannot access without severe penalties. I did this to minimize growth in my tax deferred account. My taxable and Roth accounts are 100% stock. For me, I can’t pay down my mortgage with my bonds although I would like to. That brings me to wonder whether I should...
by corn18
Fri Jul 17, 2020 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule - confidence poll
Replies: 457
Views: 26942

Re: 4% rule - confidence poll

It also amazes me that people don’t get that 4% is the worst case in history scenario. The worst case in a very short , recent American history perhaps, probably not even including the entire 20th century. In the 1920s, I wonder if people thought of the Long Depression of 1873-1879 (following the C...
by corn18
Fri Jul 17, 2020 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule - confidence poll
Replies: 457
Views: 26942

Re: 4% rule - confidence poll

It also amazes me that people don’t get that 4% is the worst case in history scenario. The worst case in a very short , recent American history perhaps, probably not even including the entire 20th century. In the 1920s, I wonder if people thought of the Long Depression of 1873-1879 (following the C...
by corn18
Thu Jul 16, 2020 11:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 2% Real Returns, 2% inflation reasonable for estimating?
Replies: 42
Views: 2645

Re: 2% Real Returns, 2% inflation reasonable for estimating?

I saw an article recently that stated 2.36% is the average inflation over the past 19 years, FWIW. Tim In my model, if I increase inflation, I am better off because my real rate of return does not change but my mortgage deflates faster. I know in Fireclac that inflation kills because they use nomin...
by corn18
Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 2% Real Returns, 2% inflation reasonable for estimating?
Replies: 42
Views: 2645

Re: 2% Real Returns, 2% inflation reasonable for estimating?

does the 56k estimate for ss project working until age 67? your statement may be making assumptions that are incorrect. otherwise, 2% real is what i use in accumulation phase Negative. The $56k SS assumes I stop working in Mar of 2021. I use AnyPIA to calculate my PIA @ 67 and my spreadsheet handle...
by corn18
Wed Jul 15, 2020 7:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 2% Real Returns, 2% inflation reasonable for estimating?
Replies: 42
Views: 2645

Re: 2% Real Returns, 2% inflation reasonable for estimating?

Horton wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 7:09 pm FWIW, Research Affiliates has a good tool showing expected returns for a variety of asset classes. They update it on a monthly basis.

https://interactive.researchaffiliates. ... terms=REAL
Well that was thoroughly depressing.
by corn18
Wed Jul 15, 2020 6:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 2% Real Returns, 2% inflation reasonable for estimating?
Replies: 42
Views: 2645

Re: 2% Real Returns, 2% inflation reasonable for estimating?

I think I would use 3% real for 60/40 asset allocation. 2% inflation is reasonable. Just curious, what modeling tool(s) are you using, is this your own cooking? Hopefully you are not biased and cooking your own books. I like bigfoots48's Retiree Portfolio Model (RPM). You should probably start with...
by corn18
Wed Jul 15, 2020 6:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 2% Real Returns, 2% inflation reasonable for estimating?
Replies: 42
Views: 2645

Re: 2% Real Returns, 2% inflation reasonable for estimating?

Even without LTC events its often best to leave some unconverted pretax dollars as long as the resultant RMD's are manageable and do not trigger excessive taxes in your spread sheeting exercises for most scenarios. You do not want to spend excessive taxes to convert and you do not want to spend exc...
by corn18
Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 2% Real Returns, 2% inflation reasonable for estimating?
Replies: 42
Views: 2645

Re: 2% Real Returns, 2% inflation reasonable for estimating?

In my opinion, this seems like conservative, but yet reasonable numbers to run your projections. Kinda like the same projections that I am using. Isn't it odd how just 1% difference of real returns can have huge discrepancy's in the outcome of your financial plan? 1% makes a HUUUUUUUGE difference o...
by corn18
Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 2% Real Returns, 2% inflation reasonable for estimating?
Replies: 42
Views: 2645

Re: 2% Real Returns, 2% inflation reasonable for estimating?

I model RMD conversions in my spreadsheet and right now, I can do conversions to the top of the 12%/15% tax bracket and get it all done between 55 and 70. That seems to be the best tax strategy. I also fully model SS in my taxes by year. I assume you meant Roth conversions. There is an argument to ...
by corn18
Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 2% Real Returns, 2% inflation reasonable for estimating?
Replies: 42
Views: 2645

Re: 2% Real Returns, 2% inflation reasonable for estimating?

Those assumptions seem reasonable. As someone mentioned, you could try modelling a variety of assumed rates, as well as different sequences yielding those rates to get a better handle on the robustness of your plan. That is a nice pension and large SS, so your portfolio risk is a bit less than many...
by corn18
Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 2% Real Returns, 2% inflation reasonable for estimating?
Replies: 42
Views: 2645

Re: 2% Real Returns, 2% inflation reasonable for estimating?

Is the mortgage going to be a large part of your monthly expenses? The P&I will be 17% of my total annual expenses. Is that bad? I could pay it off before I retire. Likely not "bad" or "good." At that amount, I don't think the accuracy of your inflation estimate is very important. 2% is probably as...
by corn18
Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 2% Real Returns, 2% inflation reasonable for estimating?
Replies: 42
Views: 2645

Re: 2% Real Returns, 2% inflation reasonable for estimating?

Retirement planning is mostly guessing. I think your estimates are as good as any and I would use numbers similar to yours. I don't understand the comment about use of current year dollars being related to your pension. The pension and your health care just reduce your need to use your portfolio. M...
by corn18
Wed Jul 15, 2020 2:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 2% Real Returns, 2% inflation reasonable for estimating?
Replies: 42
Views: 2645

2% Real Returns, 2% inflation reasonable for estimating?

In my retirement planning spreadsheet, I am using 2% real returns on a 60/40 portfolio. Historical is 5.6%. I am also using 2% inflation. Historical is all over the place. I run all my forecasts in current year dollars because my pension is COLA'd (military pension and free health care). Inflation o...