Bogleheads.org

megaroth wrote: ↑Wed Mar 15, 2023 10:33 pm Thanks to everyone for the helpful comments. New plan is to go 50/50 between SGOV and BIL.

why would you prefer the super short duration to something like xhlf (6 month treasury etf) higher yield and minimal duration risk with a lower expense ratio?

rockstar wrote: ↑Fri Mar 17, 2023 5:21 pm

chrisdds98 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 17, 2023 4:48 pm the price increase was the impetus I needed to drop it. Is there a streamer with decent news channels that can be recorded? Sling is $40 but thats a lot for just a few news channels that I would watch..

I had peacock which had news programs from MSNBC that came out a few days earlier but I'd like to see the news the day it airs preferably!

What specific news? You can watch Bloomberg and Sky News both on PlutoTV. Peacock has a live news feed for NBC. It’s a channel on the app. Lots of news on YouTube app without paying for it.

i guess i like being able to fast forward through the commercials and just get to the stories of interest to me. looking up clips in youtube could do the trick, I just need to get used to it...

the price increase was the impetus I needed to drop it. Is there a streamer with decent news channels that can be recorded? Sling is $40 but thats a lot for just a few news channels that I would watch..

I had peacock which had news programs from MSNBC that came out a few days earlier but I'd like to see the news the day it airs preferably!

If you have $1 million cash, obviously it is easier and more liquid to just put everything into a 4.55% online savings account. That is simple, quick, and liquid. But I heard short-term treasuries are paying over 5.00% right now. How much more work is it to ladder treasuries? Questions: 1. On a scale of 1 to 10 (with 10 being the most), how much work and time does it take? 2. Also, which website is the best for laddering treasuries? 3. Any other tips or advice? Just trying to see if it is worth the extra trouble just to make an extra $300 per month. why not invest in a short duration treasury fund? I use XHLF What is the current yield on XHLF ? I cannot find the yield online. https://bondbloxxetf.com/bondbloxx-bloomberg-six-month-target-du...

teelainen wrote: ↑Sat Mar 11, 2023 10:37 pm If you have $1 million cash, obviously it is easier and more liquid to just put everything into a 4.55% online savings account. That is simple, quick, and liquid.

But I heard short-term treasuries are paying over 5.00% right now. How much more work is it to ladder treasuries?

Questions:
1. On a scale of 1 to 10 (with 10 being the most), how much work and time does it take?
2. Also, which website is the best for laddering treasuries?
3. Any other tips or advice?

Just trying to see if it is worth the extra trouble just to make an extra $300 per month.

why not invest in a short duration treasury fund? I use XHLF

i have too many bond funds!

xhlf, schp, ltpz, tmf

investingisart wrote: ↑Wed Feb 22, 2023 12:23 pm Sorry if it is a silly question.

A lot of discussion around 3 months to 1 year T-Bills. Yes, the yields are spicy for sure. But at what point do you guys plan to lock-in into a 10Y, 20Y or even a 30Y treasury? They might look juicy after 3-4 years when Fed cuts the rates back to 1-2%. And those 10Y/20Y we lock-in might also shoot up and give much more than the 5% APY yield during those couple of years (similar to how bonds lost 20-25% last year?)

So how and when are you planning to capitalize that opportunity?

Thanks!

this sounds like a good time to consider doing a bond barbell. keep half in XHLF and the rest in EDV/LTPZ and continue balancing if interest rates on the long end continue to increase

chrismckay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 11:38 pm After a rough period, are Bonds still the "go to" for your safe % of your portfolio?

Chris

if you want something safe, 6 month treasuries are pretty darn safe and yielding 5%. I use XHLF, basically a rolling 6 month treasury ladder

On three separate occasions, DW has parked our 2019 Odyssey in a decent, nonisolated area during daylight. She has returned to find items stolen, like credit cards used to rack up fraudulent charges. No signs of forced entry. She is 100% sure that she has locked the doors each time, either with the keyfob remote, or with the automatic walkaway locking, both accompanied by the confirmatory tone when the door locks. Any idea on how this might be happening and how to prevent it? I have read online that thieves can jam the remote signal to prevent the door from locking, or they can intercept the signal codes so that they can unlock the door later. But I didn't know if more modern cars are still vulnerable to this. Any suggestions would be appr...

if real interest rates crash in the future long TIPS would have been the better move. if the fed changes the inflation target from 2% to 4% the long TIPS would be great. but if real rates spike to 4% that would be bad for long TIPS. its hard to predict the future!

alexbogle wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 6:22 pm I wouldn't trust my 2nd factor to a free service like google voice personally. I have a pin at my mobile provider. I should try to do a social engineering experiment though to test how hard it would be to sim swap.

the problem is you are counting on the provider to protect your pin but they are the ones with the data breaches!

look into duration matched TIPS. 1.5% real return guaranteed by the full faith and credit of the US govt is probably as safe as it gets

yes it's true you now have to get a new pin every year from the IRS if you want to go that route. read the bogeheads wiki on how to freeze your credit file at the different agencies: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Credit_freeze not sure what eVerify is. Hadn't heard of that. Think you have to freeze with each agency. And the ones that deal with banks too if you want to attempt to prevent others from opening accounts with banks (chexsystems and innovis I think). sim hijacking is also a thing so look that up. get a pin to protect that if possible. two factor authentication works well (unless your sim has been hijacked of course). don't use a debit card ever except for cash withdrawals at ATMs. look for skimming devices if you can(?) set up ...

yes it's true you now have to get a new pin every year from the IRS if you want to go that route. read the bogeheads wiki on how to freeze your credit file at the different agencies: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Credit_freeze not sure what eVerify is. Hadn't heard of that. Think you have to freeze with each agency. And the ones that deal with banks too if you want to attempt to prevent others from opening accounts with banks (chexsystems and innovis I think). sim hijacking is also a thing so look that up. get a pin to protect that if possible. two factor authentication works well (unless your sim has been hijacked of course). don't use a debit card ever except for cash withdrawals at ATMs. look for skimming devices if you can(?) set up ...

I am looking strictly at the most likely best return and have paralysis by analysis between buying nominals and TIPS. Any thoughts would be appreciated and my ideal timeframe is 4 to 5 years. TIPS or nominals? That is a great question! The answer is unknown. I think that depends on what your goals are. If you are a retiree (or soon to be), and your main goal is wealth preservation (low risk), then TIPS are probably the better investment since you are guaranteed inflation protection. If your goal is maximum growth, and you are willing to take the risk of losing in real terms if inflation heats us, then nominals may have an edge, though that is far from certain. My personal approach is that stocks are for growth (money I can afford to lose),...

chrisdds98 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 02, 2023 10:18 pm for me, the biggest benefit of google FI is the inability to do a sim swap. but apparently that has happened to a few people after this recent hack.. is there a safer provider?

https://techcrunch.com/2023/02/01/googl ... y-hackers/
https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/s ... p-attacks/

for me, the biggest benefit of google FI is the inability to do a sim swap. but apparently that has happened to a few people after this recent hack.. is there a safer provider?

you're thinking about duration matching your bonds. yes, thats fine, and many do something like that. for example having 2 years of expenses in something like xone would not move up or down very much compared to a long duration fund with changes to interest rates. especially with an inverted yield curve, having a small amount of short duration treasuries makes sense

JSPECO9 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 29, 2023 9:37 am Just out of curiosity: why should a young investor with 30+ years until planning to touch a portfolio care about risk-adjusted returns? I know LTT are great for increasing risk-adjusted returns, but why would a young investor keep the portfolio at 100% (highest expected returns)?

Thanks for the help.

to prevent behavioral error of selling stocks after they crash

Tridentine wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 9:17 pm I am confused. I am 33 and about 25% of my portfolio is in bonds in my T-IRA account. Because that's what the conventional rules suggest.

Many bogleheads seem to be steering me towards 100% equities until I am in my mid-forties. And I can understand that.

Problem is that I am apprehensive to sell. Because by some miracle, I have "timed" the bottom. Lumped in all at one time.
My cost basis for BND is 70$ and my cost basis for VGLT is 60$.

Do I hang on to them until the Fed begins easing and they shoot up? Or do I get out of them now for a modest gain and shift into equities?

Do nothing? or make a move?

its best if you make a plan and stick to it. there is absolutely nothing wrong with 75/25 at your age.

Currently approaching 40 and FIRE - living off of taxable portfolio income for the most part. Although I'm "retired" I'm curious, given the length of my investment horizon (40+ years) whether TIPS would make sense? I don't want to take undue risk by putting a higher allocation into stocks than necessary, but given my horizon should I just stick to stocks to beat inflation as opposed to long term TIPS? Especially since this is in a taxable account, it seems stocks would make more sense. I'm in a bit of an "in-between state" as it relates to portfolio construction. Curious what folks think. I retired early, and hold no TIPS, with a similar time horizon and ~60/40 portfolio. My taxable, Roth, and HSA accounts are 100% equi...

I FIREd at 43 and about 80% of my bonds are TIPS. longterm inflation expectations are quite low (2.5% or so) and inflation is a big risk for a fixed income portfolio so why not?

I wish someone would come up with a long TIPS fund with a decent expense ratio... 20 basis points seems steep for managing a dozen bonds

how much healthcare does your wife consume? typically people with minimal medical needs get the greatest benefit from this type of plan since typically the coverage is quite awful compared to non-HSA plans investing in HSAs is really nice though! triple tax advantaged if you use the funds for medical expenses I don't think it is accurate to say the coverage is awful. My experience is that high deductible plans work out better with either small amount of healthcare spending or a large amount of healthcare spending. There is a narrow window of spending where they cost more due to the higher deductibles. perhaps I had bad luck with HSA plans... but I had to pay 100% out of pocket until my deductible was met ($5k+). for a non-hsa plan with a s...

how much healthcare does your wife consume? typically people with minimal medical needs get the greatest benefit from this type of plan since typically the coverage is quite awful compared to non-HSA plans

investing in HSAs is really nice though! triple tax advantaged if you use the funds for medical expenses

I'd expect the opposite: Yields to go up, prices to go down, as borrowing gets more expensive for the Federal government. You'd want to sell all your treasuries and wait out the crisis. I was referring to past data (2011). why would this time be different? You would think that, but last time the opposite happened. People predicted rates would go up as US treasuries had a higher default rate - as is what typically happens with other types of debt - default risk drives up rates. But with treasuries, the risk of govt default greatly increases the risk of recession, and when recessions happen people around the world tend to flock to US treasuries for safety, driving prices up. Treasury yields went up after the 2011 debt crisis: Delays in raisi...

It looks like treasuries usually go up quite a bit during these debt crises'. i guess you should go long treasuries if you think this will go to the brink but they don't default. if they default supposedly everything crashes I'd expect the opposite: Yields to go up, prices to go down, as borrowing gets more expensive for the Federal government. You'd want to sell all your treasuries and wait out the crisis. I was referring to past data (2011). why would this time be different? You would think that, but last time the opposite happened. People predicted rates would go up as US treasuries had a higher default rate - as is what typically happens with other types of debt - default risk drives up rates. But with treasuries, the risk of govt defa...

toddthebod wrote: ↑Fri Jan 20, 2023 12:31 pm

chrisdds98 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 20, 2023 12:17 pm It looks like treasuries usually go up quite a bit during these debt crises'. i guess you should go long treasuries if you think this will go to the brink but they don't default. if they default supposedly everything crashes

I'd expect the opposite: Yields to go up, prices to go down, as borrowing gets more expensive for the Federal government. You'd want to sell all your treasuries and wait out the crisis.

I was referring to past data (2011). why would this time be different?

It looks like treasuries usually go up quite a bit during these debt crises'. i guess you should go long treasuries if you think this will go to the brink but they don't default. if they default supposedly everything crashes

I recently learned of a 6mo duration treasury etf XHLF https://bondbloxxetf.com/bondbloxx-bloo ... asury-etf/

What are the risks of using this fund as a savings account? with such a short duration there isn't much interest rate risk and its current SEC yield of 4.24% is higher than most savings accounts I've seen

https://www.nerdwallet.com/best/banking ... s-accounts

I truly can't understand why anyone is sticking with HEDGEFUNDIE, let alone new people buying in here. I'm lost here. If it's that bad in rising interest rate, and EVERYBODY KNEW THAT AHEAD OF TIME, then why would you not be looking at this as a brilliant and somewhat unexpected entry point? It seems like the very must basic fear/greed balance should guide a person here. When you're saying "ha ha all you idiots look at this recent performance" and we all know what caused it, and we all know what the long-term target is (this is one area where you do have a crystal ball) then it seems like you'd in the same breath be saying "it would have been really good to wait until today" What is a "rising rate environment?"...

4252.25

looks like you're doing great! if you're really aggressive then consider putting a small portion of your portfolio into a leveraged fund like upro.

do you have disability and life insurance?

also, since you have a large checking account be sure you have that in a high interest acct. my checking at m1 is paying 3.3% now

Vanguard Treasury Money Market currently yields 3.96%. Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF yields 4.42%, which is good compensation for the risk that the actual return will be higher or lower if yields fall or rise. (The Fed is still expected to increase rates, but that will not affect the Treasury fund directly; the yield on two-year Treasuries already incorporates investors' expectations of rates over the next two years.) Current 7-day yield for VMFXX is actually 4.21% https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/profile/vmfxx I don't see the appeal with holding bond ETF funds and the risk to your principal when you can buy guaranteed fixed income with CDs and treasuries with yields as high has 5% now. While high-yield sav...

i'm looking forward to increasing my duration (schp -> ltpz) as real interest rates rise

I'm looking at buying a new all in one PC https://www.hp.com/us-en/shop/ConfigureView?langId=-1&storeId=10151&catalogId=10051&catEntryId=3074457345620365320&urlLangId=&quantity=1 I used to play FPS games and was wondering if the performance of a geforce gtx 3060 6gb would be adequate. would it be worth $500 to upgrade to the gtx 3080 8gb? Be careful because I believe those are laptop GPUs which perform 30-50% slower than their similarly named desktop GPUs. So a 3060 Laptop is only around the same as a 3050 desktop which is very low end. While a 3080 Laptop is roughly equivalent to a 3060 desktop, which should be okay for 1920x1080 gaming, but certainly not at that AIO's 5120x2160 native resolution. Also note that you'll...

scho has a slightly lower fee then vgsh https://www.schwabassetmanagement.com/products/scho

maybe part scho and part bil? https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary ... ll-etf-bil

I'm looking at buying a new all in one PC https://www.hp.com/us-en/shop/Configure ... quantity=1

I used to play FPS games and was wondering if the performance of a geforce gtx 3060 6gb would be adequate. would it be worth $500 to upgrade to the gtx 3080 8gb?

CrazyCatLady wrote: ↑Fri Dec 23, 2022 12:38 pmmy guess is bonds won’t be doing very well over the next ten years anyway, so I don’t think I’ll lose a lot by diversifying.

i'm curious why you think thats the case. I'm a little excited about fixed income when I can get positive real yields. if this is money you want to use in about 8 years or so an intermediate bond fund would make sense. I like SCHP because it has inflation protection but BND or IEF would be fine if you prefer nominal bonds.

I don't know of another version of IEF. I would use SCHQ instead of TLT

a 250k SPIA pays about 15k/yr for life at age 44. That sounds fantastic if long term inflation expectations are close to accurate.

ncbill wrote: ↑Mon Dec 19, 2022 11:54 am 44 is too young to take an immediate, non-COLA annuity.

Anyone reading this thread will have no trouble online finding pre-WWII advertisements showing smiling, happy couples who retired on their $200/month annuity...

is an annuity really that different than investing in 30 year nominal treasury bonds? I don't think it would be a horrible idea to have 10-20% of your retirement in a SPIA at age 44.

as mentioned, the biggest risk is inflation. if you get a SPIA and consider that to be your nominal fixed income, be sure to balance it with equities and possibly TIPS.

if you want to leave "as much as possible" forget TIPS, increase your equity allocation instead.

I found a dentist a 10 minute walk from my house that seems to be good. The problem is she does not accept Careington 500 discount plan and I hate dental insurance. I am trying to find out what it means financially to a dentist if they accept a discount plan compared to insurance like Delta. What are their costs to be a part of a network? My old dentist had a rate plan for patients without insurance which was fair and I am thinking of proposing something to my new dentist who my wife is also seeing. We are losing our delta care plan that came with our Medicare Advantage because of our switch to Medicare and Medigap. Thanks Ask if they have a cash only option. of course there is a cash option but it will cost a lot more than the discount pl...

is there an advantage to using vtip instead of stip? the vanguard fund has a slightly higher ER and pays dividends quarterly instead of monthly

its a significant decrease in revenue. i didn't take any discount plans because I would have had to use not so great materials and labs and do crazy volume to make money. i guess no harm in asking but don't be surprised if your proposal is quickly rejected

nisiprius wrote: ↑Sun Nov 13, 2022 9:50 am Logically, TIPS carry less inflation risk so they ought to have lower return than nominal bonds. I always expected that and was always willing to accept it, and regard the fact that it hasn't happened as a lucky break that might not continue.

true but they have much more disinflation risk. many people prefer nominal bonds which act like a ballast more often than tips during market declines

one of the reasons I got rid of my international when i retired was due to currency risk. we are in a period of currency volatility with all of these central banks raising rates..

in my investing lifetime international funds increased portfolio volatility while reducing returns! it should have at least reduced volatility but didn't even do that.

the inflation protection is great for the retiree but probably unnecessary for the employed as their wages should go up with inflation. I didn't have any bonds till I was about 5 years away from early retirement. I have SCHP in a taxable account and that seems to be fine with no phantom income tax issue.

BoJ seems to be intervening in the fx markets again. i guess that means they are dumping a bunch of treasuries again..