Search found 496 matches

by chrisdds98
Sun Mar 17, 2024 12:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Please check my thinking about changing my Roth account from VTIAX to VTSAX
Replies: 42
Views: 3412

Re: Please check my thinking about changing my Roth account from VTIAX to VTSAX

You're still missing the point. You can't hurt the government in a tax deferred account without hurting yourself. Define risk however you like. If you believe it is connected to higher expected returns, putting risky assets preferentially into a Roth account thinking you're getting a free lunch is fooling yourself. You indeed are getting higher expected returns, but only because a higher proportion of your money on an after-tax basis is in that higher risk/higher expected return asset. I must not be explaining myself very well, my apologies. let me give a hypothetical example... suppose I want my asset allocation to be 50% VTI and 50% cash. I have equal space in Roth and traditional. I would rather keep all the cash in the traditional and ...
by chrisdds98
Sat Mar 16, 2024 8:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Please check my thinking about changing my Roth account from VTIAX to VTSAX
Replies: 42
Views: 3412

Re: Please check my thinking about changing my Roth account from VTIAX to VTSAX

did international ever outperfom US outside of the Japan bubble? if it were only a 10 year outperfomance you might have a point. but after 4 decades is it still considered performance chasing? Yes. During the 2000s, the so called lost decade, international stocks outperformed US. This is in large part due to the great financial crisis of 2008-2009, which affected US stocks more. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&sl=41rB7u2azZtSSXFALWV0wc that is a link to their performance starting in 2000. there was a little outpeformance from intl during that decade but it was erased only 2 years later. it seems like they were too correlated to provide much benefit. I added treasuries so you could see how stocks ...
by chrisdds98
Sat Mar 16, 2024 7:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Please check my thinking about changing my Roth account from VTIAX to VTSAX
Replies: 42
Views: 3412

Re: Please check my thinking about changing my Roth account from VTIAX to VTSAX

By the way, it doesn't matter which one you put in tax-deferred and which in Roth if you tax-adjust the asset allocation. A tax-deferred account is just a combination of a Roth account and an account you're investing on behalf of the US treasury. Think of it as 2/3rds your money and 1/3 the IRS's and adjust accordingly. You can tilt the portfolio more toward US stocks if you want because that's all moving them to Roth is doing. wouldn't it matter if you wanted to reduce your RMD? that's why folks like to put assets with the highest expected return in the roth Wanting to reduce your RMDs might be the most short sighted goal in all of personal finance. Want to know how to reduce your RMDs? Don't contribute to tax-deferred accounts, take ever...
by chrisdds98
Sat Mar 16, 2024 3:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Please check my thinking about changing my Roth account from VTIAX to VTSAX
Replies: 42
Views: 3412

Re: Please check my thinking about changing my Roth account from VTIAX to VTSAX

White Coat Investor wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2024 1:30 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Fri Mar 15, 2024 7:35 pmunderperform(ed) not underperform(s).

has grown, not "is" growing.

it's not semantics.

you don't know what will happen in the future, you only know what has happened.
Couldn't have said it any better.

This is no different than saying "I'm only going to buy VTSAX and not VTIAX going forward because VTSAX did so much better over the last ten years." This is such a terrible way to make investing decisions that it has its own name, performance chasing.
did international ever outperfom US outside of the Japan bubble? if it were only a 10 year outperfomance you might have a point. but after 4 decades is it still considered performance chasing?
by chrisdds98
Sat Mar 16, 2024 3:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Please check my thinking about changing my Roth account from VTIAX to VTSAX
Replies: 42
Views: 3412

Re: Please check my thinking about changing my Roth account from VTIAX to VTSAX

White Coat Investor wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2024 1:37 pm By the way, it doesn't matter which one you put in tax-deferred and which in Roth if you tax-adjust the asset allocation. A tax-deferred account is just a combination of a Roth account and an account you're investing on behalf of the US treasury. Think of it as 2/3rds your money and 1/3 the IRS's and adjust accordingly. You can tilt the portfolio more toward US stocks if you want because that's all moving them to Roth is doing.
wouldn't it matter if you wanted to reduce your RMD? that's why folks like to put assets with the highest expected return in the roth
by chrisdds98
Sat Mar 16, 2024 3:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Please check my thinking about changing my Roth account from VTIAX to VTSAX
Replies: 42
Views: 3412

Re: Please check my thinking about changing my Roth account from VTIAX to VTSAX

#1. Wrong, China does NOT have 10% of vxus, it has 6.7% in China: https://i.postimg.cc/C59LhSyK/vxus.jpg Now before you say, "But 6.7% is TOO MUCH!!" remember...how much of your portfolio would even be in vxus? 40%? Only if you were 100% stocks? Are you? If yes, then China at 6.7% OF INTERNATIONAL makes up .40 X .067 = 0268. That means 2.68% of your entire portfolio IF YOU'RE ONLY IN STOCKS. If you have bonds, it makes up even less OVERALL, right? Take a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio that...OF THE STOCK PORTION is 60% US stock and 40% Int. stock. Then you have .60 X .0268 = .01608 or China makes up just 1.6% of your WHOLE 60/40 stock/bond portfolio. So if China gets taken out of the portfolio you'd lose 1.6% AT MOST. A solution clea...
by chrisdds98
Sat Mar 16, 2024 9:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Please check my thinking about changing my Roth account from VTIAX to VTSAX
Replies: 42
Views: 3412

Re: Please check my thinking about changing my Roth account from VTIAX to VTSAX

I’ve finally noticed that VTIAX consistently underperforms VTSAX. 1) If you are looking at what has recently performed better and using that as your guide for how to invest, then you are performance chasing or market timing. Those are losing strategies. This doesn't mean you can't change your ROTH tIRA allocation, I just suggest doing so for other reasons. 2) I read this post when I want to remember why I'm at world market weight. I don't know what will perform better next https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=409214&newpost=7399762 You might consider getting to 60/40 in both tax advantaged accounts. 3) On the bottom line section of the following, I think you are on step 7. https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/asset-lo...
by chrisdds98
Fri Mar 15, 2024 8:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Please check my thinking about changing my Roth account from VTIAX to VTSAX
Replies: 42
Views: 3412

Re: Please check my thinking about changing my Roth account from VTIAX to VTSAX

after retiring I got rid of all my international stock. I didn't want to take currency risk and I became aware of a new risk, country removal risk. All of my Russian holdings went to 0 overnight. They have a pretty small weighting in vxus but china does not...

for those reasons and the lower returns and higher volatility over the last FOUR DECADES I don't regret dumping the international.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... 7nOkmEzvrB
by chrisdds98
Tue Feb 27, 2024 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970456

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I am really having a hard time deciding on which portfolio I want: 55% UPRO 45% TMF or 43% UPRO 57% EDV or 45% UPRO 55% GOVZ I'm doing this with a very set and forget it small chunk of my portfolio (I realize people say not to do this, but I am... it's what makes me feel comfortable and what allows me to stick with it). I realize I could get the same "end result" by just allocating more cash to portfolio #2/#3 instead of #1; however, logically I don't really care about drawdowns. I was 100% VTI in 2020 and yawned when the covid drop came. I had a much smaller allocation of UPRO/TMF over the last few years and didn't blink at TMF being down 75%+. I think my biggest concern is the carrying cost of TMF, which to me is an unfair part...
by chrisdds98
Mon Feb 05, 2024 11:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why No Love For BND?
Replies: 183
Views: 16300

Re: Why No Love For BND?

Can you please explain further? "Use a fund if you don't have any other resources to pay taxes, interest payment is insufficient and you can't sell." Are you suggesting ST Tips are okay in taxable? ST Tips are likely better in a tax-advantaged account, but they're at least as good as nominal ST treasuries in taxable. The only downside to ST Tips in taxable compared to ST Treasuries is that you are taxed on the inflation adjustment and the inflation adjustment accrues rather than paying in cash (sometimes called phantom income), so you need a source of cash to pay the tax. That source could other funds, the interest on the TIPS, selling some of the TIPS, using a ST Tips fund and taking the distributions in cash. Thank you. I need ...
by chrisdds98
Mon Feb 05, 2024 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why No Love For BND?
Replies: 183
Views: 16300

Re: Why No Love For BND?

Friendly reminder to read the prospectus before investing in any fund. That alone could have alleviated all of the misunderstanding. Really? After the average investor wades through 250 pages, they will have no misunderstandings? :oops: The summary prospectus for BND is 8 pages. For a short statement: A risk of a bond fund is that the principal value of the fund will decline by approximately 1% for every 1% rise in relevant interest rates. For a bit more: The upside of rising interest rates is that you will make back the lose of principal value over time if you hold and reinvest interest for approximately the duration after the increase, after which you'll be better off. Multiple rate increases complicate the math, but the principle holds....
by chrisdds98
Mon Feb 05, 2024 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why No Love For BND?
Replies: 183
Views: 16300

Re: Why No Love For BND?

I don't agree with ST TIPS. For one they are not suitable for a taxable account. I do agree with Cash in the form of Treasury MM or ST Treasuries. Your post should be added to the Wiki. ST Tips will do better in real after-tax terms than ST Treasuries in higher than expected inflation. Use a fund if you don't have any other resources to pay taxes, interest payment is insufficient and you can't sell. Can you please explain further? "Use a fund if you don't have any other resources to pay taxes, interest payment is insufficient and you can't sell." Are you suggesting ST Tips are okay in taxable? ST Tips are likely better in a tax-advantaged account, but they're at least as good as nominal ST treasuries in taxable. The only downside...
by chrisdds98
Sun Feb 04, 2024 10:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: JTUL [actually TJUL - Equity Defined Protection ETF]
Replies: 19
Views: 1639

Re: JTUL [actually TJUL - Equity Defined Protection ETF]

FWIW, I have been dipping my toes in the TJUL pool yesterday and today when the share price went below the price that incorporates the management fees ($24.48 is break-even). I look at this as a guaranteed winner with the profit range at the end of the period somewhere between $.08-$4.20 per share at an average purchase price of $24.40 per share. It also provides a built-in put option to sell if/when the share price approaches the cap prior to maturity. Finally, it can qualify as a long-term capital gain in a taxable account if held for a year plus a day. While it does not come with the yield guarantees a TBill/Note offers, the opportunity to out-strip them and with the tax benefits, I took a flyer with a couple hundred shares. guaranteed ...
by chrisdds98
Sun Jan 28, 2024 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Does SCHP Yield More Than BIV?
Replies: 13
Views: 938

Re: Why Does SCHP Yield More Than BIV?

JSPECO9 wrote: Sun Jan 28, 2024 11:31 am
dbr wrote: Sun Jan 28, 2024 8:41 am
JSPECO9 wrote: Sun Jan 28, 2024 7:25 am
Why would I take credit and inflation risk buying BIV if SCHP has neither of those risk and a higher yield to maturity? Shouldn't BIV have a higher yield due to more risk?
It seems that there is no risk premium for inflation indexing historically, or at least it is very small.
In that case, why not 100% TIPS for fixed income?
I have long treasuries because they are historically the least correlated with equities. 1/3 of my bonds are long TIPS, 1/3 long nominal, 1/3 6mo nominal
by chrisdds98
Sat Jan 27, 2024 9:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard ST Tips
Replies: 24
Views: 1959

Re: Vanguard ST Tips

chasbwdc wrote: Sat Jan 27, 2024 3:17 pm I converted my Total Bond Fund to the ST Tips Fund at the he beginning of the Pandemic. My investment is down approximately 10%, although the Fund results for the period are positive. Not sure how this can be. Also should I move out of this investment and go to a longer term fund at this time.
if you think we are near peak interest rates and you don't mind the long duration (more volatility and risk) I think it would be a reasonable time to go long duration like LTPZ or intermediate SCHP.

Most economists seem to think that real interest rates above 1% are unsustainable. but the economists have been wrong about a lot of things recently so take that with a grain of salt!
by chrisdds98
Tue Jan 23, 2024 7:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kids of wealthy parents, do they work?
Replies: 69
Views: 4737

Re: Kids of wealthy parents, do they work?

Planner01 wrote: Tue Jan 23, 2024 7:42 pm
Zipster wrote: Tue Jan 23, 2024 7:20 pm This will be an excellent opportunity for him to learn that he will NOT make $20/hr selling knives door to door! He won’t believe you, he won’t believe me, but he also won’t make $20/hr!
I’ve read all of the posts about this MLM scam. I can’t say anything to him because to your point, he won’t believe me. Some people only learning after going through their own experience. That’s him.

Meanwhile, I might start looking for something related to computers he can start doing for work. Even if it’s just 15 hours a week.
how is this scam company still in business?!
by chrisdds98
Thu Jan 18, 2024 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…
Replies: 2937
Views: 611284

Re: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…

FactualFran wrote: Thu Jan 18, 2024 12:00 pm
protagonist wrote: Thu Jan 18, 2024 11:42 am When will we find out the final, definitive yield of the newly auctioned Jan, 2034 TIPS?
Shortly after 1:00 PM Eastern time. There will be a link on the Today's Auction Results web page. The URL for the auction results will likely be https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/a ... 0118_3.pdf

[Edit: replaced likely URL for auction results with actual one.]
thanks, i've never read one of those before. I'm a little confused though, it says over half were sold at the high yield and the market reaction was an increase in price for ltpz and schp when I would have expected the opposite..
by chrisdds98
Thu Jan 18, 2024 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…
Replies: 2937
Views: 611284

Re: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…

Conclusion Long TIPS, at their year-end yield of about 2.0%, offer a historically attractive real return. The real return on nominal bonds, assuming your holding period runs for a decade or more, has to be considered a crapshoot. You can have no idea what your personal rate of return may be. I will ... see if I can buy more long TIPS for yields greater than 2.0% here in 2024. But, as mentioned many times in this thread, only by liquidating other fixed income investments--not my stocks. A multi-decade real return on stocks of only 2% is certainly possible (most recently 1960 - 1980), but, in the US, that qualifies as a 5th or 10th percentile result. It is nominal bonds, held in a mutual fund, that no longer make any sense to me as a holding...
by chrisdds98
Sun Dec 31, 2023 9:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How important are TIPS?
Replies: 27
Views: 3209

Re: How important are TIPS?

TBM has default risk and would be completely wrecked with prolonged high inflation. the chances of that happening are not high but TIPS eliminates both of these risks. if those don't happen they are pretty equal with SCHP barely outpacing TBM since 2011

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... 0GBeZGj6vZ
by chrisdds98
Sat Dec 30, 2023 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…
Replies: 2937
Views: 611284

Re: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…

protagonist wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2023 12:32 pm
Horton wrote: Fri Dec 29, 2023 9:09 pm
I’m still throwing new contributions into long TIPS. I can’t see myself stopping until/unless the real yield gets closer to 1.0%.

If the yield declines below 1%, I would guess that alternative fixed income investment yields will also decline. But TIPS would still serve their function, to protect you against unpredictable inflation. So why would you stop investing in TIPS? What would you invest in instead?

My stocks are for growth. My TIPS and I-bonds are for security.
i would switch to a lower duration fund like schp if the 20 y real yield got to .2%
by chrisdds98
Sat Dec 16, 2023 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…
Replies: 2937
Views: 611284

Re: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…

Joey Jo Jo Jr wrote: Fri Dec 15, 2023 2:56 pm
watchnerd wrote: Fri Dec 15, 2023 8:48 am
Joey Jo Jo Jr wrote: Fri Dec 15, 2023 6:43 am This thread encouraged me to overweight LTPZ and it needs to tell me when to get out when the gettin’s good :)
It encouraged you to overweight LTPZ?

How so?
This thread discusses taking advantage of high real rates does it not? For some that might be a TIPS ladder. For me, and IIRC the good professor that started the thread, that meant getting some LTPZ.
get out when the real interest rate gets to 0 ;)
by chrisdds98
Sat Dec 02, 2023 12:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wisdom of owning house after retirement
Replies: 54
Views: 10240

Re: Wisdom of owning house after retirement

I retired a few years ago and have considered selling the house and renting. The reason I didn't do it a few years ago is due to low interest rates on bonds and stocks being at all time highs.

Renting would require more cash flow which would limit how much I would want to roth convert.

as of now I think I will sell the house in the burbs and move to my desired retirement location within a few years.
by chrisdds98
Fri Nov 24, 2023 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help a FIREer settle on a bond allocation
Replies: 17
Views: 2970

Re: Help a FIREer settle on a bond allocation

OP, 100% in the Total Bond Market Index fund. KlangFool Why do you prefer total bond to TIPS in this situation? Why do you think that TIPS is better? I can't think of any reason. My personal Inflation rate has nothing to do with the official inflation rate. It doesn't make any sense for me to take the additional risk with TIPS. KlangFool additional risk? TIPS don't have default risk that BND does. The only person I loan $ to is janet. I don't trust anyone else ;) TIPS don't protect against deflation but inflation is a much larger risk for the early retiree. if the fed loses credibility nominal bonds will lose a lot of value while TIPS won't. chrisdds98, I use stock to protect against personal inflation. I do not count on TIPS that are base...
by chrisdds98
Fri Nov 24, 2023 8:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help a FIREer settle on a bond allocation
Replies: 17
Views: 2970

Re: Help a FIREer settle on a bond allocation

KlangFool wrote: Fri Nov 24, 2023 6:59 am
countmein wrote: Thu Nov 23, 2023 11:29 pm
KlangFool wrote: Thu Nov 23, 2023 8:05 pm OP,

100% in the Total Bond Market Index fund.

KlangFool
Why do you prefer total bond to TIPS in this situation?
Why do you think that TIPS is better? I can't think of any reason.

My personal Inflation rate has nothing to do with the official inflation rate. It doesn't make any sense for me to take the additional risk with TIPS.

KlangFool
additional risk? TIPS don't have default risk that BND does. The only person I loan $ to is janet. I don't trust anyone else ;)

TIPS don't protect against deflation but inflation is a much larger risk for the early retiree. if the fed loses credibility nominal bonds will lose a lot of value while TIPS won't.
by chrisdds98
Thu Nov 23, 2023 3:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help a FIREer settle on a bond allocation
Replies: 17
Views: 2970

Re: Help a FIREer settle on a bond allocation

I'm FIRE as well and favor TIPS because of our anticipated long retirements - inflation is a bigger risk to us than traditional retirees. 100% schp is a reasonable allocation with a nice low ER of .03.

TIPS ladder would be fine too. be aware of phantom income tax if you have TIPS in taxable accounts.
by chrisdds98
Sun Nov 12, 2023 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: YouTube, ad reduction on Google TV?
Replies: 7
Views: 1035

Re: YouTube, ad reduction on Google TV?

is there a way to use your television as a monitor wirelessly? if you watch youtube on a web browser it seems to have fewer ads depending on which browser extensions you use
by chrisdds98
Tue Oct 31, 2023 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970456

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Diego_Quant wrote: Mon Oct 30, 2023 9:20 pm
rockstar wrote: Mon Oct 30, 2023 4:51 pm
Diego_Quant wrote: Mon Oct 30, 2023 4:28 pm
rockstar wrote: Mon Oct 30, 2023 12:10 pm
Diego_Quant wrote: Mon Oct 30, 2023 10:55 am It's a good time to start this adventure with IWM/TLT, both with low valuations.
What do you think?
I think, owning long dated bonds is super risky unless held to maturity.
More risky than stocks (IWM)?
Yes.
But TLT has already fallen 54%, the risk reward ratio is already good from here. Do you think another drop of that magnitude from current values ​​is possible? IWM also, -33% from previous high.
if the fed loses control of inflation expectations rates could spike. check out a chart of the 10 year during the 70s and 80s. TIPS would be safer but back then real yields got close to 8%

https://www.longtermtrends.net/real-interest-rate/
by chrisdds98
Fri Oct 20, 2023 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5 yr TIPS vs 5 yr Note
Replies: 28
Views: 3600

Re: 5 yr TIPS vs 5 yr Note

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIE

if the avg inflation over 5 years is above 2.47% the TIPS will outperform and vice versa
by chrisdds98
Sun Oct 08, 2023 8:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why hold TIPS
Replies: 101
Views: 7123

Re: Why hold TIPS

While extraordinarily inelegant, I do think KlangFool does have a point. A TIPS bond or fund has a second bet on inflation. This is reflected in the spread between the yields of a nominal vs a TIP. Some people want to know for sure what their real rate of return will be and some people prefer to know what their nominal rate of return will be. Nevertheless, until unexpected inflation bites, historically, TIPS have underperformed their nominal brethren. Probably by market design as they are a form of insurance against unexpected inflation. But this insurance is also questionable in a bond fund. The longer the fund, the less insurance you actually have and it’s really a choice to accept a certain real return at purchase. The shorter term fund...
by chrisdds98
Fri Oct 06, 2023 7:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: ETFs for CASH Holdings
Replies: 10
Views: 2128

Re: ETFs for CASH Holdings

Are BIL and SGOV the "best" Treasury-MMF-Like-ETFs available right now? I have <$20k that's going to be stuck in a broker that charges to buy TBills (after my existing tbills mature), and pays 0% on settlement fund, and I need to hold it there for about 90 days. I may just toss it into VTI, which is the bulk of my holdings, but also looking at cash ETF options. Thanks for any advice BIL $32bil.aum 0.14%.er SGOV $16bil.aum 0.07%.er I believe that those two ETFs, iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV) and SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL), are the best Treasury-MMF-Like-ETFs available right now. I actually decided to switch from a higher fee (and lower yielding) government money market mutual fund at my brokerage to SGO...
by chrisdds98
Fri Oct 06, 2023 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…
Replies: 2937
Views: 611284

Re: Now that long TIPS have pushed past 2.50% I will…

Tarkus wrote: Fri Oct 06, 2023 9:44 am For those of you buying LTPZ, what is your exit strategy?

LTPZ has a duration of almost 20 years. Let's say you are liability matching and trying to cover expenses in 2043. Do you hold the investment for 20 years? The problem with that is that in 20 years the duration of LTPZ is still going to be almost 20 years, and it's still going to be a seriously volatile investment.
individual bonds are better suited for liability matching. i have ltpz as part of my bond allocation in a 70/30 portfolio
by chrisdds98
Tue Sep 19, 2023 11:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FIRE - mid-40's, modest portfolio, no pension. Sanity check, please
Replies: 63
Views: 10887

Re: FIRE - mid-40's, modest portfolio, no pension. Sanity check, please

I would consider owning bonds. I was 100% equities while I was working but its different when you don't have an income coming in anymore! I'm mid40s and FIRE and it was nice having my cash/short bonds do ok in 2022 while equities and long bonds crashed. For me, I have a hard time owning bonds while I still have a mortgage, and a hard time having a mortgage when I can earn > 5% in MM accounts. But I'll perhaps get there at some point. Certainly my AA is something I should make sure I'm comfortable with. fair points. sequence of returns risk will be the greatest risk to your early retirement so I would have a plan to mitigate that. either aggressive spending cuts during market crashes or a more conservative asset allocation would work.
by chrisdds98
Mon Sep 18, 2023 11:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FIRE - mid-40's, modest portfolio, no pension. Sanity check, please
Replies: 63
Views: 10887

Re: FIRE - mid-40's, modest portfolio, no pension. Sanity check, please

I would consider owning bonds. I was 100% equities while I was working but its different when you don't have an income coming in anymore! I'm mid40s and FIRE and it was nice having my cash/short bonds do ok in 2022 while equities and long bonds crashed.
by chrisdds98
Sun Sep 17, 2023 1:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Safer and better alternatives to BND
Replies: 109
Views: 11233

Re: Safer and better alternatives to BND

...Why is BND considered the best choice by bogleheads for the fixed income side of the portfolio? There are so many safer and better choices out there. For example, I'd rather choose SCHR which is the Schwab intermediate treasury bond etf over BND because treasury bonds are not correlated to stocks and safer than BND.... If you think "Treasury bonds are not correlated to stocks" then I wonder where you were in 2022. The idea that SCHR is safer and better than BND isn't anywhere near as clear as you seem to think it is. Here's the shared history of the two funds: Source https://imgur.com/y9lbfTA.png I think the most honest answer is that it's not at all clear which of them you would rather have had: SCHR (blue line) or BND (red)....
by chrisdds98
Wed Aug 30, 2023 12:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: JTUL [actually TJUL - Equity Defined Protection ETF]
Replies: 19
Views: 1639

Re: JTUL

There's no magic. You'll pay for the protection, in three ways: with the expense ratio of 0.79%. So there isn't really 100% downside protection, when the stock market loses money over a two-year period, you won't lose zero, you'll lose -1.56% (according to Innovator) over that period. Not huge, but not zero. with the foregone returns when the 15.06% cap cuts in. in illiquidity, because you only get the known, defined outcome if you sell exactly two years after you buy. The cap is important. I find that from 7/31/1927 through 7/31/2019 there have been exactly 46 twenty-four-month non-overlapping periods, and the PRICE-ONLY growth of the stock market would have exceeded the cap no less than 23 times. The cap would have been triggered half th...
by chrisdds98
Wed Aug 23, 2023 5:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: SCHO questions
Replies: 2
Views: 488

Re: SCHO questions

https://www.schwabassetmanagement.com/products/scho

5 year return is 1%. interest rates were quite low before 2022 so that makes sense
by chrisdds98
Sun Aug 13, 2023 12:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth: 8 year-old getting paid for speaking English
Replies: 18
Views: 1837

Re: Roth: 8 year-old getting paid for speaking English

Stanczyk wrote: Sun Aug 13, 2023 12:20 pm
Nate79 wrote: Sun Aug 13, 2023 11:51 am What documentation/proof do you have for this income? Receipts, invoices, dated written statements, etc?
Do babysitters and mowing kids have these? It really does seem like an unreasonable expectation.
My friend's kid was running a lemonade stand a few days ago. What is expected here?
as long as you don't get audited you can claim whatever you want on your taxes ;)
by chrisdds98
Wed Aug 02, 2023 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…
Replies: 2937
Views: 611284

Re: Now that long TIPS once again yield more than 1.80% I will…

retiringwhen wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 10:51 am BTW, I saw a brief CNBC report today where an analyst was talking about the current Treasury auction significantly extending the duration mix of this month's treasury auctions. His point was that this will surely cause longer-term rates to rise and begin to reverse the long inversion we have seen.

My take away? We are probably not at the lowest prices we will see on LTPZ in the next few weeks, months.

I am personally buying a bit of LTPZ opportunistically as we go, plus monthly dividend reinvestment. My basis is very high as I started the process in 2020, so any buys now feel very good! :beer
real yield was awfully close to 2% for the 20 year today...
by chrisdds98
Sun Jul 23, 2023 10:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond ETFs - Vanguard
Replies: 3
Views: 617

Re: Bond ETFs - Vanguard

vgsh - short treasuries
vcsh - short corporate
bsv - short balanced
by chrisdds98
Fri Jul 21, 2023 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasuries Today - What duration are you buying?
Replies: 128
Views: 22923

Re: Treasuries Today - What duration are you buying?

gmthebeau wrote: Wed Jul 19, 2023 10:11 am Treasury Bills. Generally 3-12 months. Returns are the highest. You not being compensated for interest rate risk by extending duration.
hopefully we are nearing the end of downside interest rate risk. but don't ignore the upside interest rate risk. if you believe the fed and their summary of economic projections, long rates are going back down to 2.5%
by chrisdds98
Mon Jul 17, 2023 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasuries Today - What duration are you buying?
Replies: 128
Views: 22923

Re: Treasuries Today - What duration are you buying?

bmelikia wrote: Mon Jul 17, 2023 4:03 pm Well. . .what duration(s) are you buying these days?
20 year TIPS and 6 mo treasuries
by chrisdds98
Wed Jul 12, 2023 10:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: SGOV: The best way to get exposure to treasury bills?
Replies: 58
Views: 10596

Re: SGOV: The best way to get exposure to treasury bills?

As the prospectus explains, the actual expense incurred by fund operations has been 0.12%, but Blackrock Fund Advisors have agreed to waive part of their management fees so that the net expense paid by any fund owner is 0.05%. It looks like the current agreement to do so ends tomorrow. iShares has updated the ER information for SGOV. The official ER is now 0.13%, but they have a new waiver in place until June 30, 2024 that discounts it to 0.07%. Still a very good deal IMO. too rich for my blood! I use XHLF - rolling 6 month treasuries at 3 basis points cost. https://bondbloxxetf.com/bondbloxx-bloomberg-six-month-target-duration-us-treasury-etf/ I just cut out the middleman and hold them directly. that works too. i would have to learn how t...
by chrisdds98
Wed Jul 12, 2023 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: SGOV: The best way to get exposure to treasury bills?
Replies: 58
Views: 10596

Re: SGOV: The best way to get exposure to treasury bills?

Eno Deb wrote: Wed Jul 12, 2023 10:11 am
increment wrote: Thu Jun 29, 2023 3:11 pmAs the prospectus explains, the actual expense incurred by fund operations has been 0.12%, but Blackrock Fund Advisors have agreed to waive part of their management fees so that the net expense paid by any fund owner is 0.05%. It looks like the current agreement to do so ends tomorrow.
iShares has updated the ER information for SGOV. The official ER is now 0.13%, but they have a new waiver in place until June 30, 2024 that discounts it to 0.07%. Still a very good deal IMO.
too rich for my blood! I use XHLF - rolling 6 month treasuries at 3 basis points cost.

https://bondbloxxetf.com/bondbloxx-bloo ... asury-etf/
by chrisdds98
Tue Jul 11, 2023 9:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 3 month Treasuries in Roth?
Replies: 14
Views: 1507

Re: 3 month Treasuries in Roth?

toddthebod wrote: Tue Jul 11, 2023 7:31 pm
chrisdds98 wrote: Tue Jul 11, 2023 7:28 pm
toddthebod wrote: Tue Jul 11, 2023 7:23 pm
pesa1012 wrote: Mon Jul 10, 2023 12:42 pm When rates eventually drop, I can revert to BND or something like that.
That just doesn't make any sense to me.
he wants to try to time the bond market. when most people try to time the market they underperform..
Right, but he's timing it backwards.
maybe. it wouldn't shock me if ultrashort outperforms intermediate over the next few months
by chrisdds98
Tue Jul 11, 2023 7:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 3 month Treasuries in Roth?
Replies: 14
Views: 1507

Re: 3 month Treasuries in Roth?

toddthebod wrote: Tue Jul 11, 2023 7:23 pm
pesa1012 wrote: Mon Jul 10, 2023 12:42 pm When rates eventually drop, I can revert to BND or something like that.
That just doesn't make any sense to me.
he wants to try to time the bond market. when most people try to time the market they underperform..
by chrisdds98
Tue Jul 11, 2023 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Money Guy "know your number" course
Replies: 42
Views: 8536

Re: The Money Guy "know your number" course

you could always post your info on the forum. the bogleheads tend to give reasonable evaluations
by chrisdds98
Wed Jul 05, 2023 9:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tapping HSA in retirement?
Replies: 40
Views: 3689

Re: Tapping HSA in retirement?

White Coat Investor wrote: Wed Jul 05, 2023 8:11 pm
cognovimus wrote: Wed Jul 05, 2023 4:16 pm Fairly newly retired, in our mid-60's.

We have a modest HSA (about $20,000). I understand about the unique tax benefits of the HSA, but given the size of this account, our ages, and our desire to reduce/simplify our various IRA/Roth IRA/401K/Brokerage/CU/Bank accounts, is there a compelling reason to let this account grow, or should we consider tapping it for our qualified medical expenses? (We can pay these expenses out of pocket if necessary.)
No. Spend it on medical expenses. You want that balance to be $0 before you die. Lousy account to inherit.
why is that?
by chrisdds98
Thu Jun 29, 2023 6:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Using VUSXX instead of BND
Replies: 30
Views: 4287

Re: Using VSUXX instead of BND

If a hard recession were to hit and short-term rates were to go to 0%, couldn't I take the funds in VSUXX and buy back into BND or another fund like it at that time? Wouldn't that be "Sell low, buy high?" You would be selling BND after it took a 13% drop and then buying it back when the price is higher. exactly. sell low buy high is not an ideal strategy! if you are insistent on changing your plan you might want to consider something that has fallen a lot, like EDV or LTPZ. that aligns more with the buy low sell high philosophy ;) Both are risky, but I rank EDV as being more risky short-term and long-term than LTPZ. Go with EDV if one wants to seriously risk losing real value even if they hold it for decades (or grow real value, ...
by chrisdds98
Wed Jun 28, 2023 6:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Using VUSXX instead of BND
Replies: 30
Views: 4287

Re: Using VSUXX instead of BND

IRouteIP wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2023 5:27 pm
SpireSprout wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2023 2:59 pm If a hard recession were to hit and short-term rates were to go to 0%, couldn't I take the funds in VSUXX and buy back into BND or another fund like it at that time?
Wouldn't that be "Sell low, buy high?"

You would be selling BND after it took a 13% drop and then buying it back when the price is higher.
exactly. sell low buy high is not an ideal strategy!

if you are insistent on changing your plan you might want to consider something that has fallen a lot, like EDV or LTPZ. that aligns more with the buy low sell high philosophy ;)