Search found 77 matches

by larrydmsn
Wed Feb 28, 2018 5:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good Modern Science Fiction
Replies: 288
Views: 38548

Re: Good Modern Science Fiction

Spoiler alert - don't read this post if you want to fully enjoy the "Three-body Problem" trilogy. I praised this trilogy earlier in this thread. I think I understand why some people don't like the first half of the second book "Dark Forest". It is mostly about an antihero, his seemingly mindless act...
by larrydmsn
Tue Dec 05, 2017 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 23197

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

One thing I just cannot wrap my mind around is what the rough intrinsic value of a bitcoin should be. It is confusing that its price history is so incredibly volatile... One measure would be the cost of the electricity required to mine a bitcoin on current hardware. That is the cost but I don't thi...
by larrydmsn
Wed Jan 18, 2017 9:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good Modern Science Fiction
Replies: 288
Views: 38548

Re: Good Modern Science Fiction

There is considerable excitement in the SciFi community about The Remembrance of Earth's Past Trilogy by Cixin Liu. All three books were beautifully translated and the last one "Death's End" came out 3 months ago. They read like Clarke's or Asimov's classics but with lots of refreshing modern ideas...
by larrydmsn
Sat Dec 24, 2016 9:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good Modern Science Fiction
Replies: 288
Views: 38548

Re: Good Modern Science Fiction

There is considerable excitement in the SciFi community about The Remembrance of Earth's Past Trilogy by Cixin Liu. All three books were beautifully translated and the last one "Death's End" came out 3 months ago. They read like Clarke's or Asimov's classics but with lots of refreshing modern ideas ...
by larrydmsn
Wed Feb 10, 2016 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremy Siegel : I was too bullish
Replies: 20
Views: 4805

Re: Jeremy Siegel : I was too bullish

Toons wrote:
Munir wrote:
Toons wrote:Nobody Knows Nothing :happy
This means that Everybody Knows Everything :D .
:sharebeer
Or rather, Everybody Knows Something :)
by larrydmsn
Thu Feb 26, 2015 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it actually impossible to time market crashes?
Replies: 56
Views: 6468

Re: Is it actually impossible to time market crashes?

Apparently, this is a very common scam ... and people don't cease falling for it. In the 21 Feb 2015 Economist , the Buttonwood column starts with a hypothetical wager: For the next ten weeks I will tell you if the price of a stock would go up or down. If I am right all ten times, you will trust my...
by larrydmsn
Tue Feb 24, 2015 2:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who's going to Disney this summer?
Replies: 84
Views: 9346

Re: Who's going to Disney this summer?

Scheduled closures are usually of less concern than unexpected ones, most likely due to rain or thunders. When thunders are heard, Disney parks may shut down all outdoor activities, which can really piss you off if the shutdown lasts long. Visiting in the cooler seasons carries less such risk.
by larrydmsn
Mon Feb 23, 2015 12:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who's going to Disney this summer?
Replies: 84
Views: 9346

Re: Who's going to Disney this summer?

I own short term rental houses in Orlando area and most of our guests come for Disney World. In general, the best months to visit parks are September, October, November (except Thanksgiving) and January. Crowd is much thinner and you don't need to wait in line for too long for popular rides. And pri...
by larrydmsn
Thu Feb 19, 2015 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [Heads up: Lenovo PC security compromised, thanks to adware]
Replies: 51
Views: 6913

Re: Do Not Use Lenovo Computers to Shop or Access Finance Si

BTW, SuperFish is a US company with a branch in Tel Aviv, Israel. Founders are Adi Pinhas and Michael Chertok. So it is not a Chinese or Russian company. In the worst case, your secrets may be in the hands of Americans and Israelis. Maybe we should feel a little better?
by larrydmsn
Thu Nov 13, 2014 12:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Boglehead family vacations
Replies: 44
Views: 5679

Re: Boglehead family vacations

A WDW annual pass is less than $2 per day. Even if I lived in FL, I wouldn't go enough to make an annual pass worthwhile (at $675), but it definitely isn't of much use to someone who lives in Illinois. Curious, though, is an annual pass valid for only one person? In other words, if you buy a pass, ...
by larrydmsn
Fri Sep 12, 2014 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual stock
Replies: 21
Views: 1684

Re: Individual stock

linenfort wrote:Alibaba / BABA
As hot as Alibaba is, it already has a huge valuation, possibly close to Google's when it goes IPO next week. So, no, you probably won't get Apple like return on it, unless its stock price goes to the moon.
by larrydmsn
Fri Jun 06, 2014 2:16 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: 70th Anniversary of D Day
Replies: 18
Views: 1730

Re: 70th Anniversary of D Day

It is almost impossible to get my head around the sheer number of soldiers the Soviet Union lost in that war. how about civilians: 14 million The number I had read was 28m in total in the USSR: 20m civilians and 8m military dead. Chinese civilian casualties were probably more than 10m (if we count ...
by larrydmsn
Thu Jan 16, 2014 1:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Biggest regrets in your life in financial investment?
Replies: 101
Views: 12658

Re: Biggest regrets in your life in financial investment?

I invested some money in a little company I worked with back in the early 90’s. I liked the managers and the engineers, and they seemed to be doing everything right. I bought $5k worth of their stock, which was about 3% of my net worth at the time. A year and half later, the stock was up to close t...
by larrydmsn
Mon Dec 30, 2013 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2014 Hedge fund contest
Replies: 160
Views: 22220

Re: Bogleheads 2014 Hedge fund contest

Le Man Brothers

Long:
ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch))
BTU (Peabody Energy)
Short:
NFLX (Netflix)
BBY (Best Buy)
by larrydmsn
Mon Dec 23, 2013 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread
Replies: 57
Views: 6597

Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Emerging Markets stocks will outperform US stocks, just to vindicate my thus far futile rebalancing into EM this year :)
by larrydmsn
Wed Feb 27, 2013 6:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Consumers Report for Cars 2013
Replies: 34
Views: 5199

Re: Consumers Report for Cars 2013

Agree with countofmc. I had a bad transmission with my 2002 Accord and ended up paying $4000 to get a new one. This has been a common problem with Accords from early 2000's. Historical data is useful but as always past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results...
by larrydmsn
Wed Sep 05, 2012 9:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Most reliable used vehicles?
Replies: 50
Views: 7733

Re: Most reliable used vehicles?

OP, you mentioned Honda Civics. I wanted to chime in for the Honda Accord. I had one problem free as the original owner for 12 years before an old guy drove into it in a parking lot. I was planning on 20. Consider yourself lucky as that driver might have just saved you from paying thousands to fix ...
by larrydmsn
Fri Jul 27, 2012 3:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Learning to Speak Chinese
Replies: 49
Views: 6272

Re: Learning to Speak Chinese

Reverso.net awkwardly translates HueyD's post as: "And when they heard and said unto them, is the key school student factors". My guess is that this means to say, "listening and speaking are important factors in learning [a foreign language]." word for word from mdbg.net: take part in local persons...
by larrydmsn
Wed Jul 25, 2012 12:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Learning to Speak Chinese
Replies: 49
Views: 6272

Re: Learning to Speak Chinese

It doesn't really matter which flavor of Mandarin you speak. As long as it can be called Mandarin, you will be understood by almost all Chinese people you interact with. Even in Canton (Guangdong) province where Cantonese is prevalent, almost all young people can communicate in Mandarin.
by larrydmsn
Thu Jul 05, 2012 9:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: buying a car- tell me your story
Replies: 57
Views: 6693

Re: buying a car- tell me your story

Long story short, I offered a regional volume dealer the Edmund's TMV price, and they accepted it. It was a cash purchase, very simple. You can compare Edmund's price to truecar.com's to verify accuracy against what other's are paying. I've mentioned this on every car buying thread. I'd be very car...
by larrydmsn
Mon Jul 02, 2012 3:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: buying a car- tell me your story
Replies: 57
Views: 6693

Re: buying a car- tell me your story

BTW, to put the numbers in perspective, in my post above the SUV's invoice price is about $30,000
by larrydmsn
Mon Jul 02, 2012 3:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: buying a car- tell me your story
Replies: 57
Views: 6693

Re: buying a car- tell me your story

I bought an SUV just this past Saturday June 30th. I had done quite some research and knew exact what I wanted. I emailed a few dealers on Wednesday and got two OK quotes, about $200 below the market average price listed on carsdirect.com and $500 below the market average price on truecar.com. But r...
by larrydmsn
Fri May 11, 2012 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYS 529 Direct Plan - Now the Cheapest!
Replies: 14
Views: 1910

Re: NYS 529 Direct Plan - Now the Cheapest!

The OP is correct. 0.17% is the TOTAL asset-based fee, including the underlying fund expense and program management fee. See https://a248.e.akamai.net/f/248/21630/7 ... iption.pdf
by larrydmsn
Thu Apr 19, 2012 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Dent: Cassandra or Fortune Teller?
Replies: 25
Views: 2186

Re: Harry Dent: Cassandra or Fortune Teller?

He sure knows how to sell books. When markets were doing well, he predicted Dow 40000 by end of 2009 or early 2010. Then came the surprise and amid the mass panic he swiftly predicted crash and depression in early 2009, just when markets started bouncing back.
by larrydmsn
Wed Mar 28, 2012 3:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: extended warranty on 47" TV ?
Replies: 24
Views: 1347

Re: extended warranty on 47" TV ?

According to Consumer Reports and many other experts, no, you shouldn't buy an extended warranty for your TV. Please see item #3 below.

http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/elec ... ics-ov.htm
by larrydmsn
Fri Mar 23, 2012 2:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Malkiel WSJ Editorial - What I Don't Like
Replies: 40
Views: 4993

Re: Malkiel WSJ Editorial - What I Don't Like

For those that don't have subscription, just google "http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... DS=malkiel" and you will see the whole article. :happy
by larrydmsn
Wed Feb 15, 2012 2:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Jeremy Lin is a Boglehead...
Replies: 42
Views: 5582

Re: Jeremy Lin is a Boglehead...

Probably has to do with the fact he was raised in a Chinese family. Chinese people save too much. Taiwanese. Who is JLin? He is first and foremost an American. Ethnically he is a Chinese. His parents are American, Taiwanese and Chinese. And he is a Boglehead, a Christian too. From wiki: http://en.w...
by larrydmsn
Thu Jan 26, 2012 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will be the first country to drop out of Emerging?
Replies: 9
Views: 719

Re: What will be the first country to drop out of Emerging?

by manuvns » Thu Jan 26, 2012 3:18 pm

South Korea is number 15 in HDI and may be the highest per capita income in asia . It might be the one .
Did you forget Japan?
by larrydmsn
Tue Jan 24, 2012 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are US investors so fascinated with stocks?
Replies: 40
Views: 4411

Re: Why are US investors so fascinated with stocks?

I doubt the graph from Credit Suisse is accurate. In the article linked by the OP, Japan has 5.2% share and China 5%. In Credit Suisse's graph, Japan has 8.2% and China is nowhere to be found (only as part of "Other" I guess). Even when you count only the stocks inverstable to the world, Hong Kong's...
by larrydmsn
Fri Jan 13, 2012 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taking a 529 state tax deduction in a non-resident state
Replies: 15
Views: 3232

Re: Taking a 529 state tax deduction in a non-resident state

Thanks grabiner for the analysis. I agree completely. I meant to say that in the case of NJ/NY, one shouldn't expect to always get the full benefit of tax deduction for their 529 contribution.
by larrydmsn
Thu Jan 12, 2012 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taking a 529 state tax deduction in a non-resident state
Replies: 15
Views: 3232

Re: Taking a 529 state tax deduction in a non-resident state

by TheGuru1 » Wed Jan 11, 2012 2:27 pm NJ or CT residents or residents of any other state who have NY state income -- think live in one state but work in NY, are eligible to receive a 529 tax deduction in NY. NY literature is pretty clear on this point as the 529 plan discusses the tax deduction av...
by larrydmsn
Wed Jan 11, 2012 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market to bottom in 2020?
Replies: 21
Views: 2355

Re: Market to bottom in 2020?

The OP's chart has too few samples of outforming and underforming periods. We can only say for sure there are fluctuations which is unsurprising. Any prediction of the length of current underperfoming period should be viewed with doubts. However I don't think this prediction is as absurd as the Pres...
by larrydmsn
Mon Jan 09, 2012 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting probability problem
Replies: 325
Views: 14199

Re: Interesting probability problem

I think A = B. There can be four possible suits for the first ace but each has 25% of chance. While in the second case, we know 100% sure it is a spade. 4*25%=100%. Hence A and B should be equal.
by larrydmsn
Mon Jan 09, 2012 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Marketwatch: Stocks will beat bonds over next 20 yrs
Replies: 13
Views: 1761

Re: Marketwatch: Stocks will beat bonds over next 20 yrs

by texas_archer » Mon Jan 09, 2012 2:15 pm larrydmsn wrote: I agree. However you are mostly talking about the baseline case. Without more info we indeed should expect the "mean". Now we know we just had an exteme case of bonds outperforming stocks over the preceding 20 years, the force of mean reve...
by larrydmsn
Mon Jan 09, 2012 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Marketwatch: Stocks will beat bonds over next 20 yrs
Replies: 13
Views: 1761

Re: Marketwatch: Stocks will beat bonds over next 20 yrs

I agree. However you are mostly talking about the baseline case. Without more info we indeed should expect the "mean". Now we know we just had an exteme case of bonds outperforming stocks over the preceding 20 years, the force of mean reversion makes stocks outperforming bonds over the next 20 years...
by larrydmsn
Mon Jan 09, 2012 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Marketwatch: Stocks will beat bonds over next 20 yrs
Replies: 13
Views: 1761

Marketwatch: Stocks will beat bonds over next 20 yrs

Just came across this article with quotes from Bogle, Siegel, Ibbotson etc. Thought it might be of interest to bogleheads as many of us share the same opinion (when we don't say "I don't know and I don't care"). http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-stocks-will-beat-bonds-over-the-next-20-years-2012-...
by larrydmsn
Wed Dec 28, 2011 10:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best Frugal Way to Create a Will
Replies: 32
Views: 4887

Re: Best Frugal Way to Create a Will

Does your company provide legal plan benefits? If so, participate for less than 20 bucks a month (in my case) and you can have a will and a living will through a in-network lawyer for each of you.
by larrydmsn
Thu Dec 22, 2011 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: will the SP500 double in 7 years?
Replies: 101
Views: 11875

Re: will the SP500 double in 7 years?

Nominally yes, real term no. And most of the gain will come in the last 3 years, according to my crystal ball.
by larrydmsn
Tue Oct 04, 2011 3:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should you teach your kids Chinese?
Replies: 67
Views: 5788

If this were the 1980s the OP would be asking if kids should learn Japanese. That is the first thing I thought of also. Twenty five years ago those few of us who survived the AIDS epidemic had better be able to speak Japanese. :) Well, someone else had replied to a similar post. My point is there I...
by larrydmsn
Tue Jul 26, 2011 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Russell Broadens Push Into ETFs
Replies: 61
Views: 11140

Thanks Angst. This is awful.
by larrydmsn
Fri Jul 22, 2011 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Russell Broadens Push Into ETFs
Replies: 61
Views: 11140

It has been a year. Anyone knows whether Russell Global 2000 ex-U.S. Value ETF is available yet?

Thanks.
by larrydmsn
Fri Apr 22, 2011 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your Stable Value Fund interest rate doing now?
Replies: 34
Views: 5907

0.92% for the first quarter. Annualized to 3.7%.
by larrydmsn
Mon Feb 28, 2011 4:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Has anybody ever got audited for an amount under $10
Replies: 23
Views: 6093

There is a minimum for 1099, I believe. We have two accounts in Emigrants and only one has 1099 available online. The other one shows "not eligible for 1099" or something like that.