Search found 118 matches

by dcarste
Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Recent Paper Swings And Misses
Replies: 17
Views: 2143

Re: Larry Swedroe: Recent Paper Swings And Misses

An index, including the S&P 500, is an active fund. The only true passive fund is the Total Stock market index. There is a buyer and a seller, who determine the price of said stock, which is then compared to the total value of all investable stocks. your money is divided based on the price of the ma...
by dcarste
Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Bonds
Replies: 34
Views: 4494

Re: International Bonds

I will be very interested in this asset class in 10 years, if within that 10 years the bank of japan and the european central bank stop flooding the market with their bonds. Not much diversification in the international bond fund, because it is who issues the most bonds, who you end up owning the mo...
by dcarste
Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A checkup on the S&P 500 index
Replies: 9
Views: 2131

Re: A checkup on the S&P 500 index

since the current ratio includes 'current assets' - wouldn't that include cash? So the current ratio as I have researched, at bare minimum, any sane manager would run above 1X? I'm not an accountant and I know debt is cheap, but the current ratio helps companies who face quick short term downturns. ...
by dcarste
Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Value Index Mutual Fund Question
Replies: 5
Views: 730

Vanguard Value Index Mutual Fund Question

Has anyone done the actual research on how the Vanguard Value Indexes are created, meaning which companies are included in the Value Index? I see many wanting to 'tilt' towards value based on past 'evidence' it produces better returns. Here is an overview of how it is constructed in more simplistic ...
by dcarste
Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A checkup on the S&P 500 index
Replies: 9
Views: 2131

A checkup on the S&P 500 index

I will post this to deliberate what is going on in S&P 500 companies. This is not a perfect screen, using Finviz free stock screener, but pretty much the easiest screen you could do on the S&P 500...and this concerns me. Here is a simple "If I was doing business, in it's simplist form I would at lea...
by dcarste
Wed Oct 11, 2017 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Check up and contribution/portfolio advice
Replies: 9
Views: 976

Re: Check up and contribution/portfolio advice

Tackle all debt except your mortgage as aggressively as you can and have 6 to 8 months of emergency savings in cash/online savings account, its a life changer. I'd still during this time contribute only as much as your company would match, no more. That match, is essentially a free 50% or 100% insta...
by dcarste
Wed Oct 11, 2017 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to put downpayment needed in 2 years.
Replies: 3
Views: 799

Re: Where to put downpayment needed in 2 years.

For sure if you have more than 25K, then Ally Bank has a popular product called a "No Penalty CD", which is essentially a 1.5% CD that you can take or "cancel" your CD and keep all interest earned...at any point in time. Basically a savings account, tap a button online to cash in the CD back to your...
by dcarste
Wed Oct 11, 2017 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please Criticize my Funds.
Replies: 28
Views: 2881

Re: Please Criticize my Funds.

everyone else already gave you the funds to use. But you should be IMO 100-your age in bonds...give or take 5 to 10 points. I'd be 40% bonds at your age and your balance. Have you been battle tested during 2008 with your asset allocation WITH six figures in your account and a 90% allocation to stock...
by dcarste
Wed Oct 11, 2017 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Offensive Valuations
Replies: 45
Views: 4742

Re: Offensive Valuations

Definitely not a "all out" or "all in" guy, but there are easily read statistics that are most highly correlated with subsequent 10 and 12 year returns. Buffet Indicator: Market Cap/GNP(or GDP they are pretty close). Around 89% correlation Price to Sales: 90% correlation More indicators are close, b...
by dcarste
Wed Oct 11, 2017 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 100% invested, all in, no cash- how do you do it?
Replies: 42
Views: 4233

Re: 100% invested, all in, no cash- how do you do it?

In my opinion 100% invested means, excluding 6 months of emergency expenses in very liquid assets (say a savings account at Ally earning interest plus your regular checking account), they are 100% invested in stocks and bonds - based on their risk tolerance.
by dcarste
Wed Oct 11, 2017 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Offensive Valuations
Replies: 45
Views: 4742

Offensive Valuations

I'd like to post this and get replies. I am a business analyst by trade for a mega corp, so this is how I think. 1. I treat the S&P 500 as a "business", for which I can buy shares of this business. 2. As an analyst I know how fudged most of the accounting is, and so I use what nobody can really 'adj...
by dcarste
Wed Oct 11, 2017 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are we taking too much risk with Bonds in our AA?
Replies: 25
Views: 2499

Re: Are we taking too much risk with Bonds in our AA?

Did you "win the game" already, meaning you are retired and you feel you have enough for retirement? If so, you won the game. Why still play? I did this exact thing for my parents who won the game...reduce risk as much as possible because you don't need to take risk. 30% Total US Stock Mkt Index 10%...
by dcarste
Wed Oct 11, 2017 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Invest $200K cash to stock funds
Replies: 8
Views: 811

Re: Invest $200K cash to stock funds

How old are you and how close to retirement are you? What is your net worth excluding your house (you need a roof over your head).

Excluding your emergency fund, what is your current asset allocation?

Then I could give you at least IMO good advice, otherwise I'm shooting in the dark.
by dcarste
Fri Jun 30, 2017 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ally CD - No Penalty CD Help/Advice Needed
Replies: 30
Views: 3949

Re: Ally CD - No Penalty CD Help/Advice Needed

was just going to stagger between 2 statement periods because of the 6 transaction limitation per statement period, if for whatever reason i hit the limit of 6 money movements...never have but who knows...no big deal to just have the cd's split between 2 statement periods for the transaction limit o...
by dcarste
Fri Jun 30, 2017 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ally CD - No Penalty CD Help/Advice Needed
Replies: 30
Views: 3949

Re: Ally CD - No Penalty CD Help/Advice Needed

Thanks all, wanted to make sure I was not missing something that was a big negative. I'll open in increments mutiple cd's at 25K intervals....exactly what I was thinking and thanks again. Good to hear it was so quick when you already have an Ally Savings also. Phew, glad I asked, I swear I had to be...
by dcarste
Fri Jun 30, 2017 3:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Index fund fallacy - what we lost sight of!!
Replies: 55
Views: 7749

The Index fund fallacy - what we lost sight of!!

I think the whole Boglehead investing in index funds topic is getting people's minds a little off focus and forgetting that you are not just investing in some arbitrary "index fund", you ARE BUY THE COMPANIES WITHIN THE INDEX. Index funds are great because of low costs and instant diversification. I...
by dcarste
Fri Jun 30, 2017 1:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Stocks - New thoughts
Replies: 83
Views: 8236

Re: International Stocks - New thoughts

I think the whole Boglehead investing in index funds topic is getting people's minds a little messed up and forgetting that you are not just investing in an index fund, you ARE BUY THE COMPANIES WITHIN THE INDEX. Go take a look at the top 50 companies in the Vanguard international index fund - and t...
by dcarste
Fri Jun 30, 2017 1:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ally CD - No Penalty CD Help/Advice Needed
Replies: 30
Views: 3949

Ally CD - No Penalty CD Help/Advice Needed

Hi All, I am currently and have been for 5 years a customer with Ally Bank, and use their online savings account which currently yields 1.05%. I was doing some research on CD rates and came across their "No Penalty CD" product. It is FDIC insured and they only offer 1 term which is 11 months. No Pen...
by dcarste
Wed May 10, 2017 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Fund Slice or Stick To Total Stock Market
Replies: 10
Views: 1503

Re: Dividend Fund Slice or Stick To Total Stock Market

Favorite quote - I had to convince my dad not to go for dividend stocks only. I actually treat the S&P 500 "in my head" as one company that pays a yield. That is the company I own, the American Economy. Easier to see if I am willing to just dollar cost average like normal and buy some more S&P500 sh...
by dcarste
Wed May 10, 2017 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Buffett says that long term interest rates are best indicator of future stock perf. What does he mean?
Replies: 7
Views: 1330

Re: When Buffett says that long term interest rates are best indicator of future stock perf. What does he mean?

Buffett is notorious as saying one thing in public and another in private. If you want to follow him, read his biographies, where there was a personal writer that wrote with him. In private he will say some things different, not saying he is lying...but he has a great responsibility to the public if...
by dcarste
Tue Mar 28, 2017 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help w/ International vs. US
Replies: 1
Views: 348

Help w/ International vs. US

I am a data nerd and was diving into some performance data using US total stock index and International total stock index, but they go back only so far. My question is, can anyone find a time in history where the US went into a bear market (say a negative year), but the international stock market ha...
by dcarste
Thu Feb 23, 2017 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Run Ups - Now vs. Then
Replies: 88
Views: 8286

Re: Market Run Ups - Now vs. Then

You guys are funny.

1)..2018 meant by end of year (and now) the FED's lowered rate has had around 9 years of pushing people into stocks to find yield.

2) I have an asset allocation just like you guys and participated in the rally.

<SIGH>
by dcarste
Thu Feb 23, 2017 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Run Ups - Now vs. Then
Replies: 88
Views: 8286

Re: Market Run Ups - Now vs. Then

How can people not see the huge speculative bubble we are in? It's just in a different form. The biggest, not ever tried before experiment in monetary manipulation. The big euphoria is hidden...it has been yield seeking...I.E. many people that would have kept money in bonds - moved that money into s...
by dcarste
Thu Feb 23, 2017 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 25942

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

A bit off topic too, but International socks in general are not very appealing as a portfolio diversifier in terms of helping smooth out returns. I use portfolio visualizer (google it). I can not find a SINGLE time period where the US stock market had a terrible couple months, or a terrible year - w...
by dcarste
Thu Feb 23, 2017 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 25942

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

Hi all, I seems you are not reading the data right. One said July 2010 cape said 4% returns but it has been 14. Actually, if you look at the data I keep posting - the data forecasts the NEXT 10 year AVERAGE annual return. The model in July 2010 showed any new money invested then would return somewhe...
by dcarste
Tue Feb 21, 2017 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 25942

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

I'm a big proponent of price to ttm sales ratio, especially now. Pretty much the only metric (sales) that you can't gimmick with accounting. See Figure 7. See Figure 5 and 6 also interesting...Market cap to GNP (Buffet's fav valuation indicator). Note this isn't a stock timing indicator, but rather ...
by dcarste
Tue Feb 21, 2017 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 25942

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

Hi Larry! The Russell 2000 earnings were actually "nill" back sometime in 2016. It is very troubling the accounting gimmicks being pulled. Somehow, they choose to exclude "one time non-cash charges that must be reported because of GAAP". The perversion of Earnings, as I'm sure you've noticed over th...
by dcarste
Tue Feb 21, 2017 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 25942

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

Hi Delamer - as I will still be 40% equities...My re-entry point is at a 25% drop - knowing full well I will not time the bottom by any means. I have dry powder to put to work. If I don't get a 25% lower re-entry point to bump back up to 60% stocks - I am fine with staying 40% stocks. When the facts...
by dcarste
Tue Feb 21, 2017 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 25942

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

I would like small caps except their PE is around 85 :shock: wowsers. Some websites have the gull to give you the small cap PE EXCLUDING those companies with NO and negative earnings...like Vanguard. Go ahead and google the Russell 2000 PE...Man nothing is cheap. It's all to each their own man. My m...
by dcarste
Tue Feb 21, 2017 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 25942

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

In 2011 expected 10 year average annual return was around 10% per year for any new money invested during that year. See 3rd chart down on link below. 4 other valuation metrics are similar...its not just his model..I ran into his model after doing my own modeling and being baffled at the prices I was...
by dcarste
Tue Feb 21, 2017 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 25942

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

Yea I never made a decision to take profits until last month when I moved from 60% stock to 40%: 1) Extreme valuations above around 95 percent of all time periods 2) Triple tops all time highs in SP500, Russell 2000, Nasdaq multiple times 3) "Animal Spirits" Talk and hopium about 4) AAII Bullish Sen...
by dcarste
Tue Feb 21, 2017 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 25942

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

Please go to the 3rd chart down on this link. (and guys I really hope I'm wrong here) http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc170213.htm subsequent 10 year annual stock returns based on current valuations with a 94% correlation. This correlation of subsequent returns also holds true to the same chart he ...
by dcarste
Tue Feb 21, 2017 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 25942

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

I don't follow Hussman's funds which have to compete with a benchmark, so they don't reflect his actual holdings. My point is I DID participate in the 8 year bull with 60% stocks...and last month decided I've made enough money staying the course that it was time to take some off the table. All you r...
by dcarste
Tue Feb 21, 2017 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 25942

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

Hi Aloha Joe - I don't base all of my decisions on Hussman. I base on valuations - which is why I have been at my normal allocation until recently. I mean seriously Aloha - 1929 and 1999 valuations, with huge policy uncertaintly not priced in. And you want to continue to not take "SOME" off the tabl...
by dcarste
Tue Feb 21, 2017 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 25942

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

Yes I did about a month ago...it depends on your age...a bear market the next ten years is great for someone in the accumulation phase as they dollar cost average at lower prices. I just don't want to see my fellow friends get screwed out of retirement by taking on this much risk with so little rewa...
by dcarste
Tue Feb 21, 2017 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 25942

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

"I guess this time is different" and I really honestly hope so, I will still stand to benefit - and I don't want to see retail investors fleeced again. But is this time really different? Valuations always have and always will matter on future returns. I really do hope I'm wrong. I just don't want pe...
by dcarste
Tue Feb 21, 2017 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 25942

Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

Hi Everyone, I would like to first give everyone a gem of a link - and you can start reading each weekly commentary starting around early December till now. I have been crunching data and couldn't figure out how I keep seeing prognosticators saying PE's aren't too stretched. I finally came across so...
by dcarste
Tue Feb 21, 2017 7:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which puppy to buy: golden retriever or labrador retriever?
Replies: 120
Views: 9330

Re: Which puppy to buy: golden retriever or labrador retriever?

Labs are great, funny, and great around kids. I've had 3 over the years. BE SURE to get an ENGLISH LAB from a good breeder. English Labs have the shorter stout nose, shorter legs and a little stockier. They don't have the energy that regular labs do. The FIELD lab or a non pure English lab will have...
by dcarste
Thu Feb 16, 2017 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two-Fund Portfolio Role Call
Replies: 59
Views: 8342

Re: Two-Fund Portfolio Role Call

SP 500 Index Total Bond Market Index If you are considering adding Total Intl Stock, the thing is that you would have to put a decent % of your money into it...to have any decent impact on your returns and get the so called "diversification benefit". For example I don't see any big benefit if you ar...
by dcarste
Thu Feb 16, 2017 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Getting back into market after sitting on sidelines
Replies: 11
Views: 1548

Re: Getting back into market after sitting on sidelines

The old saying comes to mind here...no need to get rich twice. In your case I would never consider more than 30% of your portfolio in stocks. Since you did sell a little while ago...I would get back into the 30% stock allocation in TWO different steps. From what I read you are 100% out of the market...
by dcarste
Thu Feb 16, 2017 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is 30% stock enough to keep up with (or beat) inflation?
Replies: 39
Views: 4610

Re: Is 30% stock enough to keep up with (or beat) inflation?

From a statistical standpoint, the performance difference between holding 30% stocks or 40% stocks is negligible at best. I've ran portfolio simulations hundreds of times. Here is an example comparing two portfolios. 15 Year Performance Annual Returns (2002-2016), and return during 2008 crash: Portf...
by dcarste
Thu Feb 16, 2017 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: portfolio review, next steps
Replies: 3
Views: 456

Re: portfolio review, next steps

VERY HARD RULE OF THUMB > NEVER HAVE MORE THAN 5% of your invest-able assets in a single company/stock. I beg you please tomorrow sell down to 5% of your total invest-able assets and take that money...and put it into your regular asset allocation index funds. I don't care what company it is, you are...
by dcarste
Thu Feb 16, 2017 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New to bonds, which kind to invest in?
Replies: 5
Views: 606

Re: New to bonds, which kind to invest in?

You could go try and read up a bit about how a bond works, and what the duration of a fund means...and what types of bonds the fund can own...i.e. Treasuries, Corporate Bonds, TIPS, Mortgage Backed, Asset Backed, High Yield Junk Bonds. Or...you could just buy a great diversified bond fund...and not ...
by dcarste
Thu Feb 16, 2017 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which is currently the most expensive asset class?
Replies: 4
Views: 679

Re: Which is currently the most expensive asset class?

US stocks in general are extremely overvalued...eclipsed by only two other time periods 1929 stock crash and 1999 Tech Bubble. Take your pic on valuation metric...Shiller CAPE PE 10, Price to Revenue/Sales, Shiller PE over smoothed 5 or 3 year time horizon, Buffet's favorite indicator Total Market C...
by dcarste
Thu Feb 16, 2017 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help!! / Advice with investing inheritance
Replies: 2
Views: 476

Help!! / Advice with investing inheritance

Hi All. I have a good "problem". I received gifted money and have cash that needs to be invested. I have $50K dollars to put to work right now that is sitting in an online savings account earning 1% FDIC insured. I know what my allocations are going to be for stock vs bond and how to place the stock...
by dcarste
Tue Mar 22, 2016 12:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: podcast: Bogle on Bloomberg 'Masters in Business'
Replies: 29
Views: 3767

New Jack Bogle Interview!

Hi all, not sure if someone already posted this, but Jack did a great 1 hour long interview about a week ago with "Masters in Business Podcast" from Bloomberg. Here is the link, enjoy:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/201 ... ness-audio
by dcarste
Mon Mar 21, 2016 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dividend tax withheld by foreign countries even in IRA?
Replies: 7
Views: 1420

Re: Dividend tax withheld by foreign countries even in IRA?

I think I was wondering if the tax disadvantage if holding international equities in an IRA is worth it given we are going to be double taxed...starting with dividend, then at ordinary income tax rates....when withdrawling from an IRA. Is the small diversification benefit worth the already handicapp...
by dcarste
Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dividend tax withheld by foreign countries even in IRA?
Replies: 7
Views: 1420

Dividend tax withheld by foreign countries even in IRA?

I was doing some research and it seems, even in regular IRA's (tax sheltered), that Vanguard may be withholding foreign tax on the dividends of the mutual fund. I do know there are some countries with tax treaties, like UK and Canada, but there aren't favorable dividend tax treaments in other countr...
by dcarste
Mon Feb 08, 2016 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing, another study
Replies: 130
Views: 15570

Re: Rebalancing, another study

Vangaurd did a rebalance white paper recently.

To save you time, 1 month rebalancing did worst, quarterly did second worst

semi annually, annually, or a 5/25 band all performed so similar it wasn't worth worrying about.

Go for annual rebalancing
by dcarste
Mon Feb 08, 2016 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: help on allocation
Replies: 5
Views: 362

Re: help on allocation

Sorry I didn't mean 'buy' on quick large 20-30% market crashes, i mean rebalance back to my target in an off time during market flashes, instead of once yearly rebalance - if we get any quick crashes...to make sure I am not too far off my targets.