Search found 130 matches

by dcarste
Fri Oct 19, 2018 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Evaluation of Portfolio
Replies: 4
Views: 467

Re: Evaluation of Portfolio

Due to all those taxable gains and so much of a portion in your taxable accounts for stocks, even though it would be nice to simplify to 3 fund portfolio, the stock mutual funds you hold are very good and low expense. I'd just work on getting rid of IBM over time first and foremost and put into bond...
by dcarste
Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio allocation Retired.
Replies: 13
Views: 1342

Re: Portfolio allocation Retired.

I don't think based on your low cost of living, that you need to risk more than 30% of your total net worth in stocks. I would set a timeline, say 3 years, and every 6 months make a purchase of stock so that after 3 years you reach 30% of your nest egg. No need to risk your retirement. Don't do it a...
by dcarste
Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation heading into retirement
Replies: 8
Views: 1060

Re: Asset Allocation heading into retirement

I highly recommend decreasing your allocation to stocks now until 3 years after retirement, unless you want to keep the door open to possibly not be able to retire on your timeline. Usually good to reduce stock exposure 4 or 5 years before retirement and 3 years after, and then decide after that wha...
by dcarste
Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Options for $200,000 in housing money
Replies: 4
Views: 744

Re: Options for $200,000 in housing money

If houses in your neighborhood are worth more so that your added money to renovations can be recouped if you sell later, do the renovations in small chunks instead of all at once. Like do the kitchen. Then baths a year later. Otherwise buy new. Since you have 4 children, expect expenses to go up, an...
by dcarste
Fri Oct 19, 2018 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What the heck to do with $2M windfall
Replies: 22
Views: 3980

Re: What the heck to do with $2M windfall

Here is what I would do: No rush like you said park it for a while. Pay off every debt, don't penny pinch between should I pay house off or not, just do it, you have plenty of money. Make sure you have umbrella insurance and good car insurance, see below for fee per day/hour wealth advisor. Vanguard...
by dcarste
Fri Oct 19, 2018 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What if your risk tolerance is lower than what's best for your portfolio?
Replies: 51
Views: 3540

Re: What if your risk tolerance is lower than what's best for your portfolio?

Sir, I did this for my father who is in a very similar position. Think of it as this - based on your responses you have 'WON the 'Game' of investing - meaning you have reached an amount of assets to where you can live and not work much, and use your savings to live - called Critical Mass. There is N...
by dcarste
Fri Oct 19, 2018 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [How many SP500 companies in Mid Cap Index? Split 50/50 btwn Ttl Mkt and Mid Cap?]
Replies: 15
Views: 637

Re: Split US equity 50/50 btwn Ttl Mkt and Mid Cap Indx

Yea its a never ending circle really. I do a 3 fund portfolio and just like analyzing data. One way is to just make sure the total stock market index doesn't get more concentrated in one particular industry more than around 25%. During dot com era - technology sector hit 35% of SP500. I do every now...
by dcarste
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [How many SP500 companies in Mid Cap Index? Split 50/50 btwn Ttl Mkt and Mid Cap?]
Replies: 15
Views: 637

Re: Split US equity 50/50 btwn Ttl Mkt and Mid Cap Indx

I do wish I had more data going back to the era of the "Nifty 50" era where there was similar concentration into a small number of stocks where the Total Stock market index would have also had too much concentration (i.e.similar to dot com era circa 2000), due to market cap weighting, concentrated a...
by dcarste
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [How many SP500 companies in Mid Cap Index? Split 50/50 btwn Ttl Mkt and Mid Cap?]
Replies: 15
Views: 637

Split US equity 50/50 btwn Ttl Mkt and Mid Cap Indx

[Thread merged into here, see below. --admin LadyGeek] Approx 70% of mid cap index are sp500 companies, verified by other member too in a different posting. Why did I want to know? Hypothesis would be due to market cap weighting, during a speculative bubble where too much money gets put into too fe...
by dcarste
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [How many SP500 companies in Mid Cap Index? Split 50/50 btwn Ttl Mkt and Mid Cap?]
Replies: 15
Views: 637

Re: Help:How many SP500 companies included in Mid Cap Index

I came to same data conclusion - approx 70% of mid cap index are sp500 companies. Why? Hypothesis would be due to market cap weighting, during a speculative bubble where too much money gets put into too few companies, i.e. during dot com bubble... during 2000-2002 bear mkt, mid cap index annualized ...
by dcarste
Fri Oct 19, 2018 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [How many SP500 companies in Mid Cap Index? Split 50/50 btwn Ttl Mkt and Mid Cap?]
Replies: 15
Views: 637

Re: Help:How many SP500 companies included in Mid Cap Index

I don't have the membership and was hoping to avoid paying for it, and have someone who has some type of membership help me. Thanks for the reply and knowledge about the ability to export in .csv.
by dcarste
Fri Oct 19, 2018 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [How many SP500 companies in Mid Cap Index? Split 50/50 btwn Ttl Mkt and Mid Cap?]
Replies: 15
Views: 637

[How many SP500 companies in Mid Cap Index? Split 50/50 btwn Ttl Mkt and Mid Cap?]

[Titles were: - "Split US equity 50/50 btwn Ttl Mkt and Mid Cap Indx" -"Help:How many SP500 companies included in Mid Cap Index" See my update below. --admin LadyGeek] Can anyone help me determine how many S&P500 index companies are included in the Vanguard Mid Cap Index? I have reasons I need to k...
by dcarste
Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Recent Paper Swings And Misses
Replies: 17
Views: 2245

Re: Larry Swedroe: Recent Paper Swings And Misses

An index, including the S&P 500, is an active fund. The only true passive fund is the Total Stock market index. There is a buyer and a seller, who determine the price of said stock, which is then compared to the total value of all investable stocks. your money is divided based on the price of the ma...
by dcarste
Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Bonds
Replies: 34
Views: 5863

Re: International Bonds

I will be very interested in this asset class in 10 years, if within that 10 years the bank of japan and the european central bank stop flooding the market with their bonds. Not much diversification in the international bond fund, because it is who issues the most bonds, who you end up owning the mo...
by dcarste
Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A checkup on the S&P 500 index
Replies: 9
Views: 2267

Re: A checkup on the S&P 500 index

since the current ratio includes 'current assets' - wouldn't that include cash? So the current ratio as I have researched, at bare minimum, any sane manager would run above 1X? I'm not an accountant and I know debt is cheap, but the current ratio helps companies who face quick short term downturns. ...
by dcarste
Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Value Index Mutual Fund Question
Replies: 5
Views: 849

Vanguard Value Index Mutual Fund Question

Has anyone done the actual research on how the Vanguard Value Indexes are created, meaning which companies are included in the Value Index? I see many wanting to 'tilt' towards value based on past 'evidence' it produces better returns. Here is an overview of how it is constructed in more simplistic ...
by dcarste
Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A checkup on the S&P 500 index
Replies: 9
Views: 2267

A checkup on the S&P 500 index

I will post this to deliberate what is going on in S&P 500 companies. This is not a perfect screen, using Finviz free stock screener, but pretty much the easiest screen you could do on the S&P 500...and this concerns me. Here is a simple "If I was doing business, in it's simplist form I would at lea...
by dcarste
Wed Oct 11, 2017 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Check up and contribution/portfolio advice
Replies: 9
Views: 1100

Re: Check up and contribution/portfolio advice

Tackle all debt except your mortgage as aggressively as you can and have 6 to 8 months of emergency savings in cash/online savings account, its a life changer. I'd still during this time contribute only as much as your company would match, no more. That match, is essentially a free 50% or 100% insta...
by dcarste
Wed Oct 11, 2017 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to put downpayment needed in 2 years.
Replies: 3
Views: 941

Re: Where to put downpayment needed in 2 years.

For sure if you have more than 25K, then Ally Bank has a popular product called a "No Penalty CD", which is essentially a 1.5% CD that you can take or "cancel" your CD and keep all interest earned...at any point in time. Basically a savings account, tap a button online to cash in the CD back to your...
by dcarste
Wed Oct 11, 2017 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please Criticize my Funds.
Replies: 28
Views: 3218

Re: Please Criticize my Funds.

everyone else already gave you the funds to use. But you should be IMO 100-your age in bonds...give or take 5 to 10 points. I'd be 40% bonds at your age and your balance. Have you been battle tested during 2008 with your asset allocation WITH six figures in your account and a 90% allocation to stock...
by dcarste
Wed Oct 11, 2017 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Offensive Valuations
Replies: 45
Views: 5106

Re: Offensive Valuations

Definitely not a "all out" or "all in" guy, but there are easily read statistics that are most highly correlated with subsequent 10 and 12 year returns. Buffet Indicator: Market Cap/GNP(or GDP they are pretty close). Around 89% correlation Price to Sales: 90% correlation More indicators are close, b...
by dcarste
Wed Oct 11, 2017 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 100% invested, all in, no cash- how do you do it?
Replies: 42
Views: 4755

Re: 100% invested, all in, no cash- how do you do it?

In my opinion 100% invested means, excluding 6 months of emergency expenses in very liquid assets (say a savings account at Ally earning interest plus your regular checking account), they are 100% invested in stocks and bonds - based on their risk tolerance.
by dcarste
Wed Oct 11, 2017 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Offensive Valuations
Replies: 45
Views: 5106

Offensive Valuations

I'd like to post this and get replies. I am a business analyst by trade for a mega corp, so this is how I think. 1. I treat the S&P 500 as a "business", for which I can buy shares of this business. 2. As an analyst I know how fudged most of the accounting is, and so I use what nobody can really 'adj...
by dcarste
Wed Oct 11, 2017 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are we taking too much risk with Bonds in our AA?
Replies: 25
Views: 2725

Re: Are we taking too much risk with Bonds in our AA?

Did you "win the game" already, meaning you are retired and you feel you have enough for retirement? If so, you won the game. Why still play? I did this exact thing for my parents who won the game...reduce risk as much as possible because you don't need to take risk. 30% Total US Stock Mkt Index 10%...
by dcarste
Wed Oct 11, 2017 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Invest $200K cash to stock funds
Replies: 8
Views: 925

Re: Invest $200K cash to stock funds

How old are you and how close to retirement are you? What is your net worth excluding your house (you need a roof over your head).

Excluding your emergency fund, what is your current asset allocation?

Then I could give you at least IMO good advice, otherwise I'm shooting in the dark.
by dcarste
Fri Jun 30, 2017 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ally CD - No Penalty CD Help/Advice Needed
Replies: 30
Views: 4363

Re: Ally CD - No Penalty CD Help/Advice Needed

was just going to stagger between 2 statement periods because of the 6 transaction limitation per statement period, if for whatever reason i hit the limit of 6 money movements...never have but who knows...no big deal to just have the cd's split between 2 statement periods for the transaction limit o...
by dcarste
Fri Jun 30, 2017 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ally CD - No Penalty CD Help/Advice Needed
Replies: 30
Views: 4363

Re: Ally CD - No Penalty CD Help/Advice Needed

Thanks all, wanted to make sure I was not missing something that was a big negative. I'll open in increments mutiple cd's at 25K intervals....exactly what I was thinking and thanks again. Good to hear it was so quick when you already have an Ally Savings also. Phew, glad I asked, I swear I had to be...
by dcarste
Fri Jun 30, 2017 3:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Index fund fallacy - what we lost sight of!!
Replies: 55
Views: 8376

The Index fund fallacy - what we lost sight of!!

I think the whole Boglehead investing in index funds topic is getting people's minds a little off focus and forgetting that you are not just investing in some arbitrary "index fund", you ARE BUY THE COMPANIES WITHIN THE INDEX. Index funds are great because of low costs and instant diversification. I...
by dcarste
Fri Jun 30, 2017 1:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Stocks - New thoughts
Replies: 83
Views: 8987

Re: International Stocks - New thoughts

I think the whole Boglehead investing in index funds topic is getting people's minds a little messed up and forgetting that you are not just investing in an index fund, you ARE BUY THE COMPANIES WITHIN THE INDEX. Go take a look at the top 50 companies in the Vanguard international index fund - and t...
by dcarste
Fri Jun 30, 2017 1:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ally CD - No Penalty CD Help/Advice Needed
Replies: 30
Views: 4363

Ally CD - No Penalty CD Help/Advice Needed

Hi All, I am currently and have been for 5 years a customer with Ally Bank, and use their online savings account which currently yields 1.05%. I was doing some research on CD rates and came across their "No Penalty CD" product. It is FDIC insured and they only offer 1 term which is 11 months. No Pen...
by dcarste
Wed May 10, 2017 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Fund Slice or Stick To Total Stock Market
Replies: 10
Views: 1632

Re: Dividend Fund Slice or Stick To Total Stock Market

Favorite quote - I had to convince my dad not to go for dividend stocks only. I actually treat the S&P 500 "in my head" as one company that pays a yield. That is the company I own, the American Economy. Easier to see if I am willing to just dollar cost average like normal and buy some more S&P500 sh...
by dcarste
Wed May 10, 2017 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Buffett says that long term interest rates are best indicator of future stock perf. What does he mean?
Replies: 7
Views: 1405

Re: When Buffett says that long term interest rates are best indicator of future stock perf. What does he mean?

Buffett is notorious as saying one thing in public and another in private. If you want to follow him, read his biographies, where there was a personal writer that wrote with him. In private he will say some things different, not saying he is lying...but he has a great responsibility to the public if...
by dcarste
Tue Mar 28, 2017 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help w/ International vs. US
Replies: 1
Views: 373

Help w/ International vs. US

I am a data nerd and was diving into some performance data using US total stock index and International total stock index, but they go back only so far. My question is, can anyone find a time in history where the US went into a bear market (say a negative year), but the international stock market ha...
by dcarste
Thu Feb 23, 2017 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Run Ups - Now vs. Then
Replies: 88
Views: 8727

Re: Market Run Ups - Now vs. Then

You guys are funny.

1)..2018 meant by end of year (and now) the FED's lowered rate has had around 9 years of pushing people into stocks to find yield.

2) I have an asset allocation just like you guys and participated in the rally.

<SIGH>
by dcarste
Thu Feb 23, 2017 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Run Ups - Now vs. Then
Replies: 88
Views: 8727

Re: Market Run Ups - Now vs. Then

How can people not see the huge speculative bubble we are in? It's just in a different form. The biggest, not ever tried before experiment in monetary manipulation. The big euphoria is hidden...it has been yield seeking...I.E. many people that would have kept money in bonds - moved that money into s...
by dcarste
Thu Feb 23, 2017 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 27449

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

A bit off topic too, but International socks in general are not very appealing as a portfolio diversifier in terms of helping smooth out returns. I use portfolio visualizer (google it). I can not find a SINGLE time period where the US stock market had a terrible couple months, or a terrible year - w...
by dcarste
Thu Feb 23, 2017 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 27449

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

Hi all, I seems you are not reading the data right. One said July 2010 cape said 4% returns but it has been 14. Actually, if you look at the data I keep posting - the data forecasts the NEXT 10 year AVERAGE annual return. The model in July 2010 showed any new money invested then would return somewhe...
by dcarste
Tue Feb 21, 2017 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 27449

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

I'm a big proponent of price to ttm sales ratio, especially now. Pretty much the only metric (sales) that you can't gimmick with accounting. See Figure 7. See Figure 5 and 6 also interesting...Market cap to GNP (Buffet's fav valuation indicator). Note this isn't a stock timing indicator, but rather ...
by dcarste
Tue Feb 21, 2017 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 27449

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

Hi Larry! The Russell 2000 earnings were actually "nill" back sometime in 2016. It is very troubling the accounting gimmicks being pulled. Somehow, they choose to exclude "one time non-cash charges that must be reported because of GAAP". The perversion of Earnings, as I'm sure you've noticed over th...
by dcarste
Tue Feb 21, 2017 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 27449

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

Hi Delamer - as I will still be 40% equities...My re-entry point is at a 25% drop - knowing full well I will not time the bottom by any means. I have dry powder to put to work. If I don't get a 25% lower re-entry point to bump back up to 60% stocks - I am fine with staying 40% stocks. When the facts...
by dcarste
Tue Feb 21, 2017 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 27449

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

I would like small caps except their PE is around 85 :shock: wowsers. Some websites have the gull to give you the small cap PE EXCLUDING those companies with NO and negative earnings...like Vanguard. Go ahead and google the Russell 2000 PE...Man nothing is cheap. It's all to each their own man. My m...
by dcarste
Tue Feb 21, 2017 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 27449

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

In 2011 expected 10 year average annual return was around 10% per year for any new money invested during that year. See 3rd chart down on link below. 4 other valuation metrics are similar...its not just his model..I ran into his model after doing my own modeling and being baffled at the prices I was...
by dcarste
Tue Feb 21, 2017 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 27449

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

Yea I never made a decision to take profits until last month when I moved from 60% stock to 40%: 1) Extreme valuations above around 95 percent of all time periods 2) Triple tops all time highs in SP500, Russell 2000, Nasdaq multiple times 3) "Animal Spirits" Talk and hopium about 4) AAII Bullish Sen...
by dcarste
Tue Feb 21, 2017 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 27449

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

Please go to the 3rd chart down on this link. (and guys I really hope I'm wrong here) http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc170213.htm subsequent 10 year annual stock returns based on current valuations with a 94% correlation. This correlation of subsequent returns also holds true to the same chart he ...
by dcarste
Tue Feb 21, 2017 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 27449

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

I don't follow Hussman's funds which have to compete with a benchmark, so they don't reflect his actual holdings. My point is I DID participate in the 8 year bull with 60% stocks...and last month decided I've made enough money staying the course that it was time to take some off the table. All you r...
by dcarste
Tue Feb 21, 2017 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 27449

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

Hi Aloha Joe - I don't base all of my decisions on Hussman. I base on valuations - which is why I have been at my normal allocation until recently. I mean seriously Aloha - 1929 and 1999 valuations, with huge policy uncertaintly not priced in. And you want to continue to not take "SOME" off the tabl...
by dcarste
Tue Feb 21, 2017 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 27449

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

Yes I did about a month ago...it depends on your age...a bear market the next ten years is great for someone in the accumulation phase as they dollar cost average at lower prices. I just don't want to see my fellow friends get screwed out of retirement by taking on this much risk with so little rewa...
by dcarste
Tue Feb 21, 2017 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 27449

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

"I guess this time is different" and I really honestly hope so, I will still stand to benefit - and I don't want to see retail investors fleeced again. But is this time really different? Valuations always have and always will matter on future returns. I really do hope I'm wrong. I just don't want pe...
by dcarste
Tue Feb 21, 2017 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 27449

Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

Hi Everyone, I would like to first give everyone a gem of a link - and you can start reading each weekly commentary starting around early December till now. I have been crunching data and couldn't figure out how I keep seeing prognosticators saying PE's aren't too stretched. I finally came across so...
by dcarste
Tue Feb 21, 2017 7:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which puppy to buy: golden retriever or labrador retriever?
Replies: 120
Views: 10057

Re: Which puppy to buy: golden retriever or labrador retriever?

Labs are great, funny, and great around kids. I've had 3 over the years. BE SURE to get an ENGLISH LAB from a good breeder. English Labs have the shorter stout nose, shorter legs and a little stockier. They don't have the energy that regular labs do. The FIELD lab or a non pure English lab will have...