Search found 251 matches

by NMBob
Fri Oct 04, 2019 10:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lump sum vs Pension
Replies: 20
Views: 1959

Re: Lump sum vs Pension

as 6 pack said. some money in a pension, especially if it has col/inflation increases should provide some diversification. also, while this may not apply, a fairly large number of people should just never be given a big junk of money at one time, for multiple reasons.
by NMBob
Thu Oct 03, 2019 1:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Kids Investment Account
Replies: 30
Views: 2037

Re: Kids Investment Account

Do not agree with your second sentence though. Assuming kids are reasonably old and understand some basic concepts -- explaining that with his money he bought a tiny share of every public US company (or a tiny share of every public company in the world), is easy enough. I'm not saying they can't un...
by NMBob
Tue Oct 01, 2019 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charles Schwab (SCHW) Eliminating Commissions for Stocks, ETFs and Options Listed on U.S. or Canadian Exchanges
Replies: 106
Views: 9514

Re: Charles Schwab (SCHW) Eliminating Commissions for Stocks, ETFs and Options Listed on U.S. or Canadian Exchanges

thanks for posting. was debating to transfer part/all of schwab ira to a free trade place, such as merrill where i had free trades in taxable. now can just wait a week.
by NMBob
Mon Sep 30, 2019 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 1269
Views: 78879

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Besides PIMCO stock plus and NTSX are there any similar ETFs or OEFs? I am going to long NTSX in taxable soon. not etfs, but funds that gain leveraged exposure. likely not tax efficient, 2.44 morningstar tax cost ratio. dsenx - doubleline shiller enhanced cape is leveraged fund that reflects 100 pe...
by NMBob
Sun Sep 29, 2019 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ken Fisher wants you to know that he cares...
Replies: 49
Views: 4166

Re: Ken Fisher wants you to know that he cares...

Hopefully there is a right way and a wrong way to market one's goods and services. There are also more honest and ethical ways to market and hopefully we don't have to resort to manipulative methods. Was this presented as an issue in this thread? are people suggesting that using focus groups to hel...
by NMBob
Sun Sep 29, 2019 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ken Fisher wants you to know that he cares...
Replies: 49
Views: 4166

Re: Ken Fisher wants you to know that he cares...

What's the problem? Are people supposed to bury their heads in the sand and ignore reality for the sake of feelings? He's not responsible for what other human beings find convincing. That's on them. It would be inappropriate for him to run ads that he knows are less effective for the sake of some s...
by NMBob
Wed Sep 25, 2019 11:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 1269
Views: 78879

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

[/quote] Besides PIMCO stock plus and NTSX are there any similar ETFs or OEFs? I am going to long NTSX in taxable soon. [/quote] not etfs, but funds that gain leveraged exposure. likely not tax efficient, 2.44 morningstar tax cost ratio. dsenx - doubleline shiller enhanced cape is leveraged fund tha...
by NMBob
Thu Sep 19, 2019 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market/Limit Orders
Replies: 39
Views: 2236

Re: Market/Limit Orders

its just a limit order.

but he describes it as marketable limit as a price limit chosen to use in the limit order which is set outside the spread , to your detriment, should execute immediately.
by NMBob
Thu Sep 19, 2019 10:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Type of bond fund to hold for 90/10 AA
Replies: 35
Views: 1604

Re: Type of bond fund to hold for 90/10 AA

90/10 total bond, 90/5 total b/5 long treasuries, 90/10 long treasuries https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=1&timePeriod=4&startYear=1972&firstMonth=1&endYear=2019&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&infl...
by NMBob
Thu Sep 19, 2019 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 298
Views: 30910

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

good question. it should be fairly tax efficient . they do state in their literature it should be tax efficient. i own a small bit in taxable. 90 percent is like an sp500 index so that should have limited turnover. the other 10 percent uses things like futures etc to produce a 60 bond look. it seems...
by NMBob
Mon Sep 09, 2019 1:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Annuity contract sold to 83 year old with 15 year surrender fee schedule
Replies: 11
Views: 1464

Re: Annuity contract sold to 83 year old with 15 year surrender fee schedule

contacting the state insurance board sounds like a very appropriate avenue. may or may not be something that also can be addressed in your state attorney generals office consumer complaints division . the modern internet has many consumer review and recommendation sites and simply stating what happe...
by NMBob
Sun Sep 08, 2019 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 1269
Views: 78879

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

i don't weight much info about callable long treasury bonds that are likely also in a significantly different system. apples and oranges and bananas. i don't care whatever method the poster uses to calculate or estimate outcomes , just hope he considers the issue of going to zero which he may or may...
by NMBob
Sun Sep 08, 2019 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 1269
Views: 78879

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

picking the gfc when people even feared government backed bonds for a while is a perhaps weakness, collapse of bond market and financial system....to this portfolio as discussed in the miles long thread. it is not the only time the market went down in history. biggest annual stock drops since 1978 2...
by NMBob
Sun Sep 08, 2019 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 1269
Views: 78879

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I am considering using a modified version of this. With 1/3 in UPRO and 2/3 in bonds. It's like going 100% in equity with the added bonus of having extra bond income to offset the expense of running a leveraged fund. Is there anything wrong with this thinking? what kind of bonds or more importantly...
by NMBob
Wed Sep 04, 2019 8:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you have disability insurance?
Replies: 37
Views: 1891

Re: Do you have disability insurance?

pick the policy carefully. a friends work policy only covered a year or two and then it switched to ability to do any type of job, not her previous job. They define any job to include sitting stationery doing nothing but watching a monitor is a job someone can do. so they stopped payments despite so...
by NMBob
Tue Sep 03, 2019 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Shares Bond etf
Replies: 8
Views: 1135

Re: I Shares Bond etf

as best i could tell looking at invesco bulletshares a while back, all the invesco investment grades opened at $20 per share and when the funds eventually closed on their maturation years they all closed above 20 per share. this years closing will be bscj which is currently above 21/share. the high ...
by NMBob
Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: PIMIX, income, cash, interest rates?
Replies: 65
Views: 8559

Re: PIMIX, income, cash, interest rates?

pimix "underperforms" but has higher sharpe and sortino ratios than vbmfx ........... vbmfx has less correlation to the stock market.....seems a little apples and oranges comparison going on
by NMBob
Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: At what age to teach kids about investment
Replies: 19
Views: 1750

Re: At what age to teach kids about investment

Why play candyland when you can play Stocks and Bonds?? Hint: always buy Stryker Drilling!

https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_from=R ... e&_sacat=0
by NMBob
Sat Aug 24, 2019 8:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is CPOAX (Morgan Stanley Insight) the best growth fund out there?
Replies: 39
Views: 2228

Re: Is CPOAX (Morgan Stanley Insight) the best growth fund out there?

Just for fun, I compared this fund to Vanguard Primecap Investor Shares starting in 1998. After a huge run up to 2000 and a huge subsequent collapse, the Morgan Stanley fund trailed Primecap from 2002 to 2018 as well as from 1998 to 2002 in total. It is only with a good year in 2019 that the Morgan...
by NMBob
Fri Aug 23, 2019 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We want all-in-one balanced ETFs. Where are they?
Replies: 34
Views: 2447

Re: We want all-in-one balanced ETFs. Where are they?

AOM pays quarterly distributions and has a distribution yield of 2.58 percent. 3 year tax ratio is .95 . Vanguard balanced index mutual fundvbiax has a lower 3 year tax ratio of .77 . vtmfx vanguard tax managed balance has an even lower 3 year tax ratio of .59. So what is aom achieving? Maybe also s...
by NMBob
Fri Aug 23, 2019 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Best Diversifiers For Your Equity Portfolio"
Replies: 126
Views: 10732

Re: "The Best Diversifiers For Your Equity Portfolio"

65percent us market with 35 short/mid/long treasuries 1978-july 2019 Portfolio Initial Balance Final Balance CAGR Stdev Best Year Worst Year Max. Drawdown Sharpe Ratio Sortino Ratio US Mkt Correlation 35%short $10,000 $505,130 9.89% 9.99% 27.50% -21.74% -32.60% 0.56 0.82 0.99 35%mid $10,000 $603,58...
by NMBob
Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab user. Where should I put my Emergency Fund?
Replies: 35
Views: 4535

Re: Schwab user. Where should I put my Emergency Fund?

FLRN - spdr barclays floating rate investment grade ultra short bond commission free etf at schwab.

SUB - ishares short term muni bond etf commission free at schwab. not ultra short but good quality.
by NMBob
Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: ETF's with DRIP and bid/ask spread
Replies: 4
Views: 690

Re: ETF's with DRIP and bid/ask spread

last year i called merrill edge bout the long delays in making auto reinvestment in pci etf pimco dynamic credit and mortgage. it would vary how long it would take. sometimes at least 4 days or maybe more. said it was somehow up to pimco and they had a time window in which to do it.
by NMBob
Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Trying to help a relative "see the light"
Replies: 36
Views: 2211

Re: Trying to help a relative "see the light"

most of the 'leaving edward jones threads' point out it is pointless to attempt to discuss the high costs with the Fa. you are just going to get the propaganda...you already know the bottom line. most suggest if possible, never contacting the fa period. just initiate a good plan in moving to a good ...
by NMBob
Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We want all-in-one balanced ETFs. Where are they?
Replies: 34
Views: 2447

Re: We want all-in-one balanced ETFs. Where are they?

https://www.wisdomtree.com/etfs/asset-allocation/ntsx WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund - which is supposed to be tax efficient https://www.wisdomtree.com/-/media/us-media-files/documents/resource-library/investment-case/the-case-for-90-60-us-balanced-fund-(ntsx).pdf ishares morningstar multi asse...
by NMBob
Thu Aug 22, 2019 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Best Diversifiers For Your Equity Portfolio"
Replies: 126
Views: 10732

Re: "The Best Diversifiers For Your Equity Portfolio"

65percent us market with 35 short/mid/long treasuries 1978-july 2019 Portfolio Initial Balance Final Balance CAGR Stdev Best Year Worst Year Max. Drawdown Sharpe Ratio Sortino Ratio US Mkt Correlation 35%short $10,000 $505,130 9.89% 9.99% 27.50% -21.74% -32.60% 0.56 0.82 0.99 35%mid $10,000 $603,588...
by NMBob
Wed Aug 21, 2019 8:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: $1M cash: how to invest
Replies: 40
Views: 3598

Re: $1M cash: how to invest

a specific boglehead wiki article on the subject

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Managing_a_windfall
by NMBob
Wed Aug 21, 2019 6:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Pre Retirement Portfolio Review
Replies: 25
Views: 3149

Re: Pre Retirement Portfolio Review

sorry , but just give Chuck Akre his due. He has been well above the pack in two different funds , fbr focus and akre focus consecutively, when they were both new and older, so forget about the survivor claims. He is simply one of the very best fund managers the past quarter century. folks should be...
by NMBob
Wed Aug 21, 2019 5:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing for the first time after a decade of depression
Replies: 7
Views: 1253

Re: Investing for the first time after a decade of depression

spouses can contribute to a nonworking spouses ira. the total contributed to their two ira's just can't exceed what she made if he has no earned income. taxes must be filed as a joint return not separate.

https://www.investopedia.com/retirement ... ributions/
by NMBob
Wed Aug 21, 2019 9:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Pre Retirement Portfolio Review
Replies: 25
Views: 3149

Re: Pre Retirement Portfolio Review

no one posts chuck akre's actual results and two decade plus history of management , fbr focus/akrex, before they all rush to say sell his fund? Above average returns with less than average volatility while tax efficient. Portfolio Initial Balance Final Balance CAGR Stdev Best Year Worst Year Max. D...
by NMBob
Mon Aug 19, 2019 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simple-minded inspection of actual low-vol fund
Replies: 31
Views: 3605

Re: Simple-minded inspection of actual low-vol fund

AKREX -- akre focus fund since 2009 not 2007 though. Has lower volatility than average despite being a growth fund , not a low volatility fund. he has a buy and hold style that is successful and tax efficient. chuck akre, one of the top mutual fund managers for over 2 decades at fbr and then his own...
by NMBob
Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 1269
Views: 78879

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

i can see why someone would be surprised to see the change. the first post says it is 'market agnostic' ...the first post says 40/60 won't make much, but that is why it is leveraged, and doesn't present a discussion on changing weightings to adjust that return, or adjustment for returns and sharp ra...
by NMBob
Tue Aug 13, 2019 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 1269
Views: 78879

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

55upro/45tmf rebalancing period pv cagrs. (thanks to folks for the sim data, instructions, and links) pv rebalancing period // 1987-date sim data // jan 2010-date none------------------------------------- 10.74----------------------------------25.94 annual----------------------------------- 16.86---...
by NMBob
Mon Aug 12, 2019 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 1269
Views: 78879

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

'After seeing more mention of this 55/45 idea I did a deeper dive and found that I was comfortable with the additional risk,'

i am all confused. you argued this was risk parity, now state 'additional risk'
by NMBob
Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 1269
Views: 78879

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

well, it looks like he didn't just show those numbers. using pv but having to start at the begining of his start years, january as opposed to later month, for the 3 periods do seem to show data for std deviation and sharp that support his 3 time period risk parity AA for the specific periods. will e...
by NMBob
Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 1269
Views: 78879

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Therefore, at these rates today, and with the three comparable historical periods I backtested above, I am hereby making the following change to the OG strategy: 55% UPRO / 45% TMF This is not risk parity any more correct? I have a hard time believing that a dollar in 30 year treasuries is riskier ...
by NMBob
Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 1269
Views: 78879

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

asset allocation changed because risk parity now actually has little to do with the goal of this nice plan? (thanks so much for the work I have implemented a variant in a small allocation) Changing AA which increases the probable loss in a bear market greater than a 50/50 would, seems to be the oppo...
by NMBob
Sat Aug 10, 2019 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 285927

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

NTSX may be a nice fund, but I would not say that NTSX will likely replicate the OPs strategy. Concentrate on strategy, not returns. NTSX long bonds is 11 of 150 which is about 7 percent total fund long bonds, while OP is 60 percent. NTSX is a balanced fund , well vanguard balanced has a 99 percent ...
by NMBob
Sat Aug 10, 2019 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 285927

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Nov 16, 2012 - 20 year yield was 2.31
Jul 31, 2019 - 20 year yield was 2.31

from PV, 1 jan 2013 to 31jul 19, Upro/tmf annual rebalance -
40/60 =21.6 CAGR, 50/50=24.6 CAGR verse vgd 500 14.0 CAGR
by NMBob
Fri Aug 09, 2019 8:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is this a logical selling strategy?
Replies: 10
Views: 906

Re: Is this a logical selling strategy?

If you do go to the bond fund, you should compare and calculate the actual numbers right before you sell something to fund the car. may not be much cap gain in a bond fund sometimes so perhaps the higher short cg tax rate is not so relevant. best of luck with the new car!
by NMBob
Fri Aug 09, 2019 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 285927

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Hypothetical example: stocks up 40 percent, long bond down 20 percent. started with 100kupro/150ktmf. upro grows to 140 and tmf drops to 120. you made $10k total. For rebalance you need to have 156k in tmf so you sell $36k of upro to buy tmf. now the question is, at what price did you buy those upr...
by NMBob
Fri Aug 09, 2019 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 285927

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Hypothetical example: stocks up 40 percent, long bond down 20 percent. started with 100kupro/150ktmf. upro grows to 140 and tmf drops to 120. you made $10k total. For rebalance you need to have 156k in tmf so you sell $36k of upro to buy tmf. now the question is, at what price did you buy those upro...
by NMBob
Thu Aug 08, 2019 11:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 285927

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

If this is a lottery ticket, why not any of the following (or even more granular to 5% or 1%)? You would still have enough to rebalance into the losing asset. UPRO/TMF 50/50 60/40 70/30 80/20 90/10 - maybe you won't have enough to rebalance on this one lets say you are 80/20 and you have stocks dro...
by NMBob
Thu Aug 08, 2019 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 285927

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

also, morningstar 3 year tax cost ratio

tmf is .32
vusux - vgd long treasury is 1.37
by NMBob
Thu Aug 08, 2019 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 285927

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Kind of glad I haven't jumped in with both feet on the volatility lookback..... Things looking pretty ugly this morning if I'd loaded up to 80% UPRO :o :o :shock: Ya not ideal, ha. I'll likely still do some for a small piece....because I like the action and the fiddling....and keeps me away from me...