Search found 107 matches

by PaulF
Tue May 01, 2018 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 156
Views: 16213

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

:?: Is that a good spending model for someone retired starting in Jan 2001? Is the 2017 amount too low, too high or about right? Also was the change in spending for actual retirees similar to the change in CPIU? 1% to 4% per year? :?: If you have not guessed already I'm going to answer my own quest...
by PaulF
Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 156
Views: 16213

Re: Regular 4% withdrawals can be ridiculous.

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Mon Apr 16, 2018 2:01 pm
Bogleheads:

Limiting withdrawals to 4% is obviously ridiculous when you are as old as I am (94).
But that is not what the Trinity study examines. Instead, consider what withdrawal would represent 4% of your initial portfolio, subsequently adjusted for inflation in the intervening years? </r>
by PaulF
Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A glidepath formula
Replies: 15
Views: 2029

Re: A glidepath formula

Well, if it makes you feel any better, I like it a lot. I, too, like a deterministic approach to de-risking. I had decided on a linear approach, and was happy with that. However, I later realized that I more or less had won the game about 10 year earlier than my linear glidepath assumed, and wanted ...
by PaulF
Wed Jan 31, 2018 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quantifying diversification benefit
Replies: 6
Views: 775

Re: Quantifying diversification benefit

As I am sure you know, when you diversify, you are dialing down your risk, that is, you are narrowing the range of possible/likely outcomes. You are not dialing up your expected returns. You may be better off (even much better off) holding your concentrated position, or you may be worse off (maybe m...
by PaulF
Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Post Your Morningstar Box Style
Replies: 111
Views: 8420

Re: Post Your Morningstar Box Style

.. V B G
L 24 18 15
M 12 10 04
S 09 06 02
by PaulF
Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opinions on 65 year old's portfolio
Replies: 19
Views: 2551

Re: Opinions on 65 year old's portfolio

I will give my $0.02 on a couple of things, but I will be the first to tell you that there are many others on the board that are more knowledgable than I am on these things! But let's get the coversation started. 2. RETIREMENT ACCOUNTS – APPROX $1,400,000 Roth IRA $15,000 began before I reached inco...
by PaulF
Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reconciling thoughts on Investing Vs Paying down mortgage
Replies: 15
Views: 2147

Re: Reconciling thoughts on Investing Vs Paying down mortgage

Now, a portfolio to support the living expenses without mortgage (using 25x expenses) is 1,000,000. If I have the mortgage, this forces me to save additional 700,000 to support the mortgage expenses. If I am a few years from retirement, I have two choices. 1. Pay down the 240,000 aggressively with ...
by PaulF
Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett 90/10 Portfolio vs Target Retirement
Replies: 33
Views: 6485

Re: Buffett 90/10 Portfolio vs Target Retirement

I split my equity 70/30 US/RoW. I cannot give you a stout defense, but this just feels right to me. A lot of home-country bias (because I will be spending US$, after all). A fair amount of foreign -- not quite world-cap-balanced, but "I can see it from here." Enough diversification to be significant...
by PaulF
Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early Retirement Question
Replies: 14
Views: 3037

Re: Early Retirement Question

My wife and I will have SS of around $68K. We won't need to pull that much from our IRAs (maybe $10K-15K starting at age 67). el George I just don't see how that SS figure is possible. At 47, you couldn't possibly have 35 working years in. If you have been maxing out the SS contribution (currently ...
by PaulF
Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please Post Tax Bill Questions Here [was Tax Bill Omnibus Thread]
Replies: 886
Views: 57917

Re: Please Post Tax Bill Questions Here [was Tax Bill Omnibus Thread]

When Thuronyi wrote his blog, the conference bill had a bad date. That date was corrected in the final version passed by both houses. The language now states that for tax years after 2016 you cannot pay 2018 state and local income taxes and take the deduction in 2017. Thus, it is specifically prohi...
by PaulF
Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's in a name? "Long Island Iced Tea Corp." changes name to "Long Blockchain Corp.", stock price jumps 500%
Replies: 24
Views: 3728

Re: What's in a name? "Long Island Iced Tea Corp." changes name to "Long Blockchain Corp.", stock price jumps 500%

Can we short it? :P I guess you are joking but I'll take you seriously in case someone else is tempted. You might want to look at the thread where a guy was short a worthless stock. Hurray! But he can't cover because the shares are halted and he is paying 100 % borrow fee. There was also the episod...
by PaulF
Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please Post Tax Bill Questions Here [was Tax Bill Omnibus Thread]
Replies: 886
Views: 57917

Re: Tax Bill Omnibus Thread

CP: I believe that if you are funding with cash, then the account may be set up immediately, with no fears of delay. It took me maybe 30 minutes to walk through the "paperwork" online. However, you may want to call them at 888-383-4483 to make sure I am right! Thanks Paul. After researching DAFs, l...
by PaulF
Thu Dec 21, 2017 8:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please Post Tax Bill Questions Here [was Tax Bill Omnibus Thread]
Replies: 886
Views: 57917

Re: Tax Bill Omnibus Thread

I pulled the trigger on a donor-advised fund today. As someone mentioned above, Fidelity has a good one, but it is too late for Fido fund it this year from non-Fido mutual funds. In fact, for VG, TOMORROW (Thursday, Dec. 21) is the cutoff date for VG to guarantee they will have enough time to estab...
by PaulF
Thu Dec 21, 2017 8:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please Post Tax Bill Questions Here [was Tax Bill Omnibus Thread]
Replies: 886
Views: 57917

Re: Tax Bill Omnibus Thread

I pulled the trigger on a donor-advised fund today. As someone mentioned above, Fidelity has a good one, but it is too late for Fido fund it this year from non-Fido mutual funds. In fact, for VG, TOMORROW (Thursday, Dec. 21) is the cutoff date for VG to guarantee they will have enough time to estab...
by PaulF
Wed Dec 20, 2017 10:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please Post Tax Bill Questions Here [was Tax Bill Omnibus Thread]
Replies: 886
Views: 57917

Re: Tax Bill Omnibus Thread

I pulled the trigger on a donor-advised fund today. As someone mentioned above, Fidelity has a good one, but it is too late for Fido fund it this year from non-Fido mutual funds. In fact, for VG, TOMORROW (Thursday, Dec. 21) is the cutoff date for VG to guarantee they will have enough time to establ...
by PaulF
Tue Dec 12, 2017 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond vs. 70/30 Int. Treasury/High Yield Corporate
Replies: 9
Views: 1077

Re: Total Bond vs. 70/30 Int. Treasury/High Yield Corporate

- "take risk on the equity side" - "if you need more return, increase equity" I am not opposed to your concept. However, you have done backtesting to try to see how you 70/30 compares to TBM. Have you also done any testing to see how a slightly higher amount of equity, coupled with a lower overall ...
by PaulF
Tue Nov 21, 2017 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Basics Cheatsheet?
Replies: 9
Views: 1712

Re: Tax Basics Cheatsheet?

I am not quite able to envision what you have in mind by "graphic" cheatsheet. Is this Bogleheads Wiki page useful to you: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Tax_basics ?
by PaulF
Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: General question about taxable investment at VG
Replies: 8
Views: 1192

Re: General question about taxable investment at VG

Gamma Ray wrote:
Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:26 pm
When I go to Change cost basis methods, it has option to change it to SpecID, should I change that before I make another purchase?
Yes, if you want the most possible control over which lots you are selling.
by PaulF
Thu Oct 05, 2017 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retiree looking for advice
Replies: 6
Views: 1274

Re: Retiree looking for advice

Also, it might be helpful to know whether your pension is fixed or will have COLAs.
by PaulF
Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Clueless on taxes but have luxury of both 403b and 457 space
Replies: 30
Views: 3547

Re: Clueless on taxes but have luxury of both 403b and 457 space

There is also the Roth IRA/backdoor Roth option if you do not have any other IRA accounts. You can contribute directly to your own as well as your non-working spouse's Roth IRA up to the max of $5,500 ($6,500 age 50 and above). This starts to phase out at a household income of $118,000/yr. However,...
by PaulF
Thu Sep 07, 2017 8:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Flaunt Your High-Mileage Car
Replies: 374
Views: 47856

Re: Flaunt Your High-Mileage Car

soccerrules wrote:
Thu Sep 07, 2017 2:47 pm
05 GMC Yukon XL 199K miles-- First car I've kept that will reach 200K
Oh, Jeez, now you have jinxed it! :D
by PaulF
Sun Jul 30, 2017 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Annuity versus Lump Sum math
Replies: 12
Views: 1906

Re: Annuity versus Lump Sum math

$1,430 is about 50% higher than the amount we see for immediate annuities online today with the $197K starting value. We think this is because he is in a narrow set of employees at a certain date years ago when the company changed the pension from defined benefit to defined contribution. The annuit...
by PaulF
Wed Jul 19, 2017 10:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Retirement Number, or, calculating the funding ratio
Replies: 199
Views: 31963

Re: Your Retirement Number, or, calculating the funding ratio

Reviving an older thread to ask about the status of Income Solutions (and explore any alternatives). When I first tried to calculate my FR following Bob's informative post some months ago, I could find all the annuity quotes I needed from Income Solutions (via VG's site). There was one company (Pru...
by PaulF
Wed Jul 19, 2017 9:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Retirement Number, or, calculating the funding ratio
Replies: 199
Views: 31963

Re: Your Retirement Number, or, calculating the funding ratio

Reviving an older thread to ask about the status of Income Solutions (and explore any alternatives). When I first tried to calculate my FR following Bob's informative post some months ago, I could find all the annuity quotes I needed from Income Solutions (via VG's site). There was one company (Prud...
by PaulF
Tue Jul 18, 2017 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio: Robert C. Merton
Replies: 5
Views: 1563

Re: In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio: Robert C. Merton

Just for specificity, the relevant parts of the video start right about the 56:00 minute mark.

If you prefer this same content in a written article by Merton, it is available here: https://hbr.org/2014/07/the-crisis-in-r ... t-planning
by PaulF
Mon Jul 17, 2017 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Personal Finance Milestone: 20 Times Annual Expense
Replies: 95
Views: 10646

Re: Personal Finance Milestone: 20 Times Annual Expense

I regret that I am late to the party, but a hearty congratulations! I thank you for your wise help in the past. I find your posts instructive and helpful. Congrats, my friend!
by PaulF
Thu Jul 13, 2017 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment/Retirement Planning for couple @ 50
Replies: 4
Views: 815

Re: Investment/Retirement Planning for couple @ 50

Also check your AZ state tax rate. I think it is like 3 to 4%, not 18%.
https://smartasset.com/taxes/arizona-tax-calculator
by PaulF
Sun Apr 30, 2017 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need more investments?
Replies: 25
Views: 2740

Re: Need more investments?

Are you sure about that pension figure? From your plan's booklet http://www.rsa-al.gov/uploads/files/TRS_Member_Handbook_T1_bookmarked.pdf#SickLeaveConversion , I found this table: http://i66.tinypic.com/21juiy9.jpg Basically, the formula is that you get a hair over 2% of your highest salary for eac...
by PaulF
Thu Apr 27, 2017 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Have anyone thought ER/fees comes from gains but not total balance?
Replies: 9
Views: 1164

Re: Have anyone thought ER/fees comes from gains but not total balance?

Wakefield1 wrote:Aren't Mutual Fund ERs and fees closely defined by law (in the USA)?
Well, their disclosure is. I don't believe that the values are regulated.
by PaulF
Wed Apr 26, 2017 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: actual versus average returns [Spartan funds]
Replies: 1
Views: 337

Re: actual versus average returns [Spartan funds]

I suspect that many smart people here would genuinely like to help you, but I cannot tell what you are asking. Could you try to rephrase your question? You mention Spartan (now just called "Fidelity") mutual funds, and you mention a 1.5% fee, but Spartan funds have a very low expense ratio. So I ass...
by PaulF
Mon Apr 24, 2017 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe says "Goodbye."
Replies: 336
Views: 48474

Re: Larry Swedroe says "Goodby."

It has all been said already, but I, too, want to convey how helpful your body of work has been to me. Thank you. At least I can reach up from where I am sitting and touch your "Winning Bond Strategy" book! Be well.
by PaulF
Thu Apr 06, 2017 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Delaying SS = Early SS+annuity or not?
Replies: 32
Views: 2165

Re: Delaying SS = Early SS+annuity or not?

An annuity, however, will pay less to a female over her lifetime for the same purchase price. [emphasis added] Did you mean "lifetime" there? I would have thought the statement should have been "will pay less to a female per month for the same purchase price." I thought the lifetime payouts were de...
by PaulF
Tue Apr 04, 2017 9:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New home expenses versus a high (overly-high?) savings & investment rate
Replies: 20
Views: 3152

Re: New home expenses versus a high (overly-high?) savings & investment rate

Congrats on the home. I have done many of the things you are contemplating (and more) over a 20-year period, rather than all up front. I was thinking about this thread a bit, and it probably is really more of a lightly-veiled "Am I so focused on saving that I'm not using enough to enjoy the present?...
by PaulF
Thu Mar 30, 2017 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Contribute to a govt 457(b)?
Replies: 12
Views: 1385

Re: Contribute to a govt 457(b)?

If early retirement is a possibility for you, note that you can take distributions from a 457 plan prior to age 59.5 without the 10% penalty assessed on 403b's, 401k's, and IRAs.
by PaulF
Fri Mar 24, 2017 11:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401k access at 55 vs 59.5
Replies: 12
Views: 1818

Re: 401k access at 55 vs 59.5

Do you have access to a 457 plan? There is no penalty for early withdrawals from a 457!
by PaulF
Tue Mar 21, 2017 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Online Retirement Planner Tools
Replies: 10
Views: 1896

Re: Online Retirement Planner Tools

I, too, am making my way through the available online planners! FIRECalc is my default, and i-orp seems to serve a complementary purpose. I recently used the Fidelity one, and found it better than I had anticipated (flexible, user-friedly). I found this link, which reviews many such calculators, use...
by PaulF
Tue Mar 21, 2017 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation and asset placement question?
Replies: 4
Views: 619

Re: Asset allocation and asset placement question?

I cannot tell if you are really questioning the 50/50 ratio, or the placement of the bond portion. If you accept that you want 50% bonds, then the best place for them is in the tax-deferred space. If, instead, you think the potential for growth is paramount (and overrides downside potential), then y...
by PaulF
Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Concerns about TIAA Real Estate Annuity and Retirement fund]
Replies: 2
Views: 988

Re: [Concerns about TIAA Real Estate Annuity and Retirement fund]

I have a lot of money in this fund, so I do have a vested interest. However, I read your post and am wondering what you think they could nefariously be doing? I mean, are you suggesting they are changing the management so they can siphon dollars off to their Cayman Islands accounts or something?
by PaulF
Wed Mar 08, 2017 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oh no! The Ohama Titanic Syndrome signal.
Replies: 24
Views: 5583

Re: Oh no! The Ohama Titanic Syndrome signal.

This thread just goes to show technical signals are utter trash. Take a look at site which posts the realtime status of technical indicators for the current US market: https://www.investing.com/indices/us-spx-500-futures-candlestick Among the signal names are: Evening Doji Star Hanging Man Bullish ...
by PaulF
Tue Mar 07, 2017 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Possibly Financially Independent and Feeling Miserable
Replies: 153
Views: 19663

Re: Possibly Financially Independent and Feeling Miserable

I, too, want to thank and commend you for sharing your story so honestly. Although I am grateful to not be so far along the curve, I recognize some of these traits in myself. (Particularly the grocery store agonizing!) Here is one actionable thing I wanted to share. When my wife and I realized that,...
by PaulF
Mon Mar 06, 2017 12:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What would you do? [Where to invest?]
Replies: 9
Views: 1076

Re: What would you do?

I largely agree with FiveK that both of your suggestions are quite reasonable. If it were me, I would choose the 90/10 AA, and put $6k into the Vanguard Total Bond Market, and $43k into the VG Institutional Index fund to keep it simple. I would either put all of your Roths into the VG Total Stock Ma...
by PaulF
Thu Mar 02, 2017 1:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: model portfolio construction and evaluation
Replies: 2
Views: 398

Re: model portfolio construction and evaluation

I think you will find what you need at Portfolio Visualizer: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com

You can enter Vanguard funds (or any other funds) as ticker symbols.
by PaulF
Wed Mar 01, 2017 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How Pensions and Social Security Affect Asset Allocation"
Replies: 19
Views: 4073

Re: "How Pensions and Social Security Affect Asset Allocation"

What would be the group's view of these AAs: 1. $1.4 M. (1M TSM, .4 M TBM), Pension of 1.0KK per year 2. $1.0 M. (1M TSM), Pension of 1.8KK per year (the extra pension was "purchased" and increases the pension amount by 0.8KK per year. The original purchase price was $.4M) What is 0.8KK? Is that su...
by PaulF
Tue Feb 21, 2017 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do when both 403b and 457b are avaliable
Replies: 11
Views: 953

Re: What to do when both 403b and 457b are avaliable

indyfish wrote: She says that she wants to work to age 70 - so she has no interest in early retirement.

I remember thinking that when I was her age! :P

I truly hope it works out that way for her. I wish I still felt motivated like that...
by PaulF
Tue Feb 21, 2017 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to Improve TIAA 403b R1
Replies: 15
Views: 1332

Re: Best way to Improve TIAA 403b R1

My wife has a good mix of fund selection, including TREA and TRAD (how can I tell which version of Traditional we have?). Unfortunately the expense ratios of these funds are 0.67 to 0.8% and above. A small note: The ER on TREA is indeed 0.89 or so, but this figure is not directly comparable to the ...
by PaulF
Tue Feb 21, 2017 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do when both 403b and 457b are avaliable
Replies: 11
Views: 953

Re: What to do when both 403b and 457b are avaliable

I learned this weekend that my wife has both a 403b and a 457b available to her. She works at a public university, and will likely get a promotion in August of 2018, which would bump her pay beyond the standard raise. The 457b has Tiaa Cref and FIdelity - we would probably use the same TIAA lifesty...