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swaption

Thank for sharing, I agree with most everything in the article... A statistic I found interesting (but not surprising a la Pareto distributions): ... According to Hendrik Bessembinder, a finance professor at Arizona State University, the entire gain in the U.S. stock market since 1926 is attributab...

swaption

Original poster here. In my opinion, a bunch of garbled, barely coherent BS. Sure, there are a couple of ok ideas. But he uses his math quite selectively, throwing neat statistics around, and in some case throwing nothing around. Take the following passage: If it were that easy, active managers woul...

swaption

Have my views on this, interested in others.

https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/a ... ath-hustle

swaption

If we assumed for a moment that the EMH was false, I wonder how many would still be beating the global market cap drum. If EMH were false, it would be because some set of investors could effectively look at fundamentals, the future, and systemically beat the market. Nothing you have said reflects a...

swaption

If we assumed for a moment that the EMH was false, I wonder how many would still be beating the global market cap drum. If EMH were false, it would be because some set of investors could effectively look at fundamentals, the future, and systemically beat the market. Nothing you have said reflects a...

swaption

Let me introduce you to Robert Sanborn, the esteemed manager of the Oakmark Fund from 1991 until the date of the below article, March 2000: https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB953681829305722131 For those thinking of giving up on international, here's your chance to not fire Robert Sanborn. Just one othe...

swaption

Again, we definitely do not need this house now, we are just forward thinking and are afraid of not being able to afford it when we need it later on. As others have alluded to, think for a moment how crazy this is. First off, what was entirely evident from the beginning is that your entire motivati...

swaption

Almost daily player, I wear Costco progressives for everything but tennis. For tennis I use distance correction contacts. It works for me. You folks really are awesome. Have been involved in some form of this forum for 15+ years. So when I do a generic google search regarding corrective lenses and ...

swaption

I take a somewhat simplified approach, essentially reap what you sow. To the extent there is an inheritance, this means someone along the way not only lived within their means, but managed to save on top of that. My plan is to do the same. To the extent there is inheritance (which is actually likely...

swaption

For the US Open, every year I have had a client event on that first Thursday, which is a great day. But I think the optimal day for a grounds pass is the first Saturday. Should be third round matches and plenty of them on the outer courts, Grandstand, etc. Not impossible you can get some serious ten...

swaption

Working and being productive is an integral part of the human condition, and I don't think there is anything in our ecosystem that dictates that necessarily has to change in your 50's. Age is just a number, and I wouldn't let any of society's broad rules or conventions play any role in how you live ...

swaption

As long as the future resembles the past, you'll do fine. The main reason I invest a significant portion of my equity overseas is because I think there is a reasonable chance that will not be the case. See Japan for the classic example. Oh, yes! I know about Japan. Yet can you expand upon your view...

swaption

If you're using post-1926 US returns, consider yourself pulled over by the data mining police: you're picking one of the best performing nations, using a cherry-picked starting point (ie, start in 1900 and things look a lot different), and not taking into consideration a roughly subsequent 2x incre...

swaption

If you're using post-1926 US returns, consider yourself pulled over by the data mining police: you're picking one of the best performing nations, using a cherry-picked starting point (ie, start in 1900 and things look a lot different), and not taking into consideration a roughly subsequent 2x incre...

swaption

You are avoiding taxes at your highest marginal rate right now. Let's say that's 28%. When you withdraw, you will withdraw starting at an effective rate of 0%. Then 10%, then 15% then 25%, etc. as you withdraw enough to move up through the tax brackets. Unpredictable things can happen to change you...

swaption

Unfortunately, I can say I know this family, even though my guess is I probably don't. As one who has funded a couple of Bat Mitzvahs, many summers at sleepaway camp, and all the requisite children's activities, this type of family strikes all too close to home. Lots of friendly folks out there taki...

swaption

With all due respect, it's not going off topic if the original poster constructively replies to a meaning of life comment, which includes a further inquiry. Please don't ask about the potential for a meaningful life if ultimately the answer really is that you don't care. Some of us didn't just gradu...

swaption

Interesting thread. Not sure how I've missed it the last two weeks. It's obviously possible to do this. Lots of people have. The key isn't the investing return, it's the savings rate. However, it seems a waste to spend even ten years of your life (and fourteen counting your degree) doing something ...

swaption

OP, your situation and goals are very similar to mine almost 10 years ago. Your goal here *is* possible (I more or less achieved it) but it is definitely the road less traveled. Here's some of my experience in case it's helpful: I am (or was) a ChemE and I wanted to work a max of 10 years in corpor...

swaption

Kind of surprised at the uniformity of replies here. TIPS may indeed be a better investment, and that investment is to a large extent insulated from inflation. But if someone were looking for something that provides broader portfolio wide protection (assuming a portfolio of non-TIPS bonds and stocks...

swaption

Not sure what else I can add. Might be most beneficial to simply look at the following history of earnings and dividends for the S&P 500. Obviously some amount of volatility along the way, but you see the rising tide of earnings, dividends, and that portion of earnings that is retained. The rise in ...

swaption

Put very simply in a simplistic model, the expected stock price appreciation should be based on the net earnings yield, after distribution of dividends. In your example, of the 6.67% earnings yield, let's assume 3% is paid out as dividends. The expected price appreciation attributable only to earnin...

swaption

I disagree. It's a lot easier to find good no load funds nowadays, especially if you do it yourself and stay away from sharks. The fact that interest rates are at historic lows in a completely separate issue... Issue is we are in a low return environment stocks bonds interest rates etc. They are no...

swaption

2-3 year old tacomas at least from carmax are only a thousand or two lower than their original MSRP. It sucks their is no lease incentives but I assume that is because of the high residual value estimate. You really do have to understand what is going on here. 2-3 years ago that Tacoma residual was...

swaption

Very bad idea. The way a manufacturer provides incentives in a lease is to subsidize the contract residual value. What this does is it artificially inflates the contract lease end purchase price to a level above what is expected, and thereby it reduces the monthly lease payments. As a result, the le...

swaption

Understand that over here there would be skeptics, but this is the real deal in terms of trade-in. Hit the $650 trade-in for the iphone 6 on my wife's phone, when I was actually only calling to upgrade my daughter's phone. In her case, she has a 5C for which they were offering an equally absurd reb...

swaption

I thoroughly enjoyed the movie, as did my gf, which surprised me since she is not particularly interested in finance. The one shocking feature to me was the mention at the end of the 2015 appearance of the "Bespoke Tranche Opportunity", described as a repackaging of the old familiar CDO with an eve...

swaption

Understand that over here there would be skeptics, but this is the real deal in terms of trade-in. Hit the $650 trade-in for the iphone 6 on my wife's phone, when I was actually only calling to upgrade my daughter's phone. In her case, she has a 5C for which they were offering an equally absurd reba...

swaption

Our daughter made it to the beginning of Level 7. At Level 5, she broke both bones in her forearm. Really crazy getting that phone call and then seeing your daughter's arm in a different shape. The x-ray was like a caricature of an x-ray, but no surgery necessary. She came back, and then left at Lev...

swaption

Hi Swaption, Isn't it a bit early to celebrate victory??? :happy If I line up total stock (VTI) vs say vanguard REIT (VNQ) from day following Dr Bernstein post, I think Morningstar says my REITs are still down by ~15% compared to selling all and buying VTI or S&P500. http://quotes.morningstar.com/c...

swaption

You want to be liked You want people to like working with you You want to be constructive You want to be engaged You want to be effective and productive You want to be cooperative You want to care about the effectiveness of your group and your organization You want to be attentive and communicate ef...

swaption

What are some good prudent rules of thumb for one's max house value as a % of net worth? It seems a lot of people think about it from an income perspective, but I have not come across a rule of thumb for net worth. Obviously this is a complicated consideration and dependent on many factors (e.g., w...

swaption

Have done this, separate set of tires and rims on my wife's SUV. Makes a huge difference. Really need to do it for my BMW, those tires turn into rocks when it is cold, a real issue. All wheel drive is not sufficient to compensate in cold and snow.

swaption

The odds of this or that expert understanding the entire story just seems pretty low. Compounding the problem in this case is that there is no reason to expect Dr. Bernstein to be an expert on REITs. No doubt he is an expert on all sorts of topics, and in fact he did years ago write something very ...

swaption

Digging a bit further into this. in addition to the interest rate side of the story, that was essentially embedded in the "speculative return" part of Bill's equation, I also questioned the assumptions regarding dividend growth. In short, I saw no fundamental rationale for dividends growing at anyth...

swaption

And further, to open with your reference to confirmation bias is just plain dismissive and insulting. Sometime that is obviously the case, but I have absolutely no indication that you have sufficiently thought through anything that I have written to come to that conclusion in this case.

swaption

Funny how confirmation bias works. The math is what it is. And in LONG TERM it is correct. It's just that higher valuations don't predict TOMORROW'S returns all that well, and in fact momentum works against that in the short term. It's no different than when I sold all but value stocks in 1998, kno...

swaption

What about REITS and interest rate? Did I miss something? Much of what I said on this can be found in the original thread which can be found in the link shared by Angst above. The gist of it is that Bernstein's approach uses Bogles's somewhat simplified approach to calculate expected returns for eq...

swaption

The following was posted on May 6, 2013: How Would Mr. Bogle Calculate Expected REIT Returns? Postby Bill Bernstein » Mon May 06, 2013 9:10 pm Hi all: I very rarely post a new topic, but I do feel compelled to comment on REITs. I’ve seen more than a few posters remark favorably on the high realized ...

swaption

Had not seen the subsequent replies from 2014 until now, but the recent markets harkened me back to this original thread. I often find these interactions with Dr. Bernstein akin to the punk intent to pick a fight with the biggest guy in the bar, and I guess in this case I was the punk. But one can ...

swaption

I'm moving somewhere for a year to three years and the cost between buying/renting is marginal. However, if I buy a house and rent it out after I move does this become a smart investment? I could own it for over ten years and sell it after it appreciates in value. Is it worth the trouble of dealing...

swaption

I actually don't think moving twice is that big a deal. The hard part is just moving. If it were me, I would put 90% of my stuff in storage and then just give the movers the green light when it is time to move into your new place. In the meantime, perhaps you can live a somewhat austere existence in...

swaption

These conversations remind me of the wounded bear analogy in Brad Gilbert's Winning Ugly. He described the effort of a tennis player that is down in a match as similar to that of a wounded bear in a fight. The bear will go above and beyond to maintain survival and the path to victory will require ex...

swaption

Pride is important and self respect for managing life so that you could support a family well is important too. Sometimes pride can get in the way. If you are middle age and have done well enough to prove to yourself and your family/friends that you had the right stuff -- why would taking an inheri...

swaption

Ignored this thread for a while, and actually an interesting topic. I will admit to being a bit bothered by one line of thread in particular. Occasionally there will be some reference to the ability to retiring early based on some level of inheritance. While my parents have left me nothing and in fa...

swaption

Interesting. I was told after a ice damn claim that I could rip up check and cancel the claim and it would be expunged from record. Maybe not true? What if one just gets an estimate, but declines payment and never gets a check? I ended up cashing it, doing no significant repairs and hoping my premi...

swaption

Saying goes, you don't know what you don't know. But you should have an idea of the magnitude. In your case, you need to know that there is an enormous amount that you don't know, simply because at your stage of life it is unknowable. That journey you refer to is this thing called life and from all ...

swaption

My advice is take some time for some serious self-reflection. This is going to come off as a bit harsh, but I mean it from a place of tough love: You sound like a bad employee and a bad coworker. I think you really need to reassess your strengths and weaknesses and try to re-orient your attitude to...

swaption

I don't really expect people to understand the totality of the situation, since there is a lot of backstory to what's going on. I'm getting a few advice of "do a good job and you'll be fine" - I'm afraid that's extremely naive. I have no assurances that if I do a good job my contract will be conver...

swaption

I mentored a very bright, hard working top 5% new guy about 5 years ago. I was about 4 levels up from him, but saw something promising so I took him under my wing. He spent 90% of his time doing great work, and 10% bemoaning the impact of office politics on him and letting everyone around him know ...

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