Search found 1204 matches

by swaption
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”
Replies: 169
Views: 14717

Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Why would I rejoice? Companies I own in the near term are going to lose a lot of money. This whole portfolio thing tends to distance folks from the reality of what is happening. If you own a lot of those companies, it's going to hurt a lot. This question of rejoice or not to rejoice implies some exp...
by swaption
Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rant about depressing portfolio returns
Replies: 37
Views: 2890

Re: Rant about depressing portfolio returns

In order to feel stupid, you would have had to do something stupid. What have you done that is stupid? In my opinion, one of the primary benefits of the kind of disciplined approach that you have employed, is that it frees one's mind from constantly thinking about their portfolio. The key to financi...
by swaption
Wed Feb 12, 2020 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I crazy to consider quitting my job?
Replies: 128
Views: 14440

Re: Am I crazy to consider quitting my job?

Thought experiment. 30 years from now, one of your kids comes to you with the same question, what do you tell them? I ask it this way, because something I notice quite a bit is that folks often want different things for their kids than they want from themselves. I'm not sure that is fair to either p...
by swaption
Thu Jan 30, 2020 4:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: "Relinquish" my index fund portfolio when moving to hedge fund?
Replies: 19
Views: 1846

Re: "Relinquish" my index fund portfolio when moving to hedge fund?

Thanks again. Something I recently learned is that the compensation is not going to be as liquid as I initially thought. Above a certain threshold, which I am expecting to exceed significantly (~$450k), the amount gets automatically invested into the hedge fund itself, and cannot be redeemed for 4 ...
by swaption
Thu Jan 30, 2020 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "If Value Stocks Are Toxic, Why Aren’t Junk Bonds?"
Replies: 6
Views: 893

Re: "If Value Stocks Are Toxic, Why Aren’t Junk Bonds?"

Nice article, write a ridiculous headline and then refute it with sound reasoning. I started this journey close to 20 years ago with the oft recommended tilt to small, value and international. I guess it's been a rough stretch the last decade or so, but certainly no issue for those of us intent to w...
by swaption
Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Net Worth ??
Replies: 129
Views: 12782

Re: Net Worth ??

To be clear, you can do whatever you want. In all circumstances, pretty much a useless number. Folks are right in the technical definition being assets - liabilities. But also can't fault someone for trying to make the number perhaps less useless by including other considerations. Am a I a bad man f...
by swaption
Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Piano & college admissions
Replies: 101
Views: 7632

Re: Piano & college admissions

Apologies for being direct, but the problem here is the question itself. It makes me crazy to see so many obsessed with how various things will impact the college admissions process. What these colleges want, more than anything, is kids that are genuine and have a passion. This does not come from th...
by swaption
Mon Dec 16, 2019 2:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Airpod alternatives?
Replies: 29
Views: 3060

Re: Airpod alternatives?

Have had these now for over a year, extensive use pretty much every day, on the train, working out, etc. There may be an updated version on Amazon, but these have been good: [Updated Version] Wireless Earbuds Bluetooth Headphones IKANZI iPX7 Waterproof 72H Cycle Play Time, 2200mAh Bluetooth 5.0 Auto...
by swaption
Mon Jun 24, 2019 5:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Opticians: is there any difference in quality of Costco glasses?
Replies: 76
Views: 172395

Re: Opticians: is there any difference in quality of Costco glasses?

Opticians and physicians I have known often have several pairs of glasses for use in different settings, one that are laser focused on specific characteristics in areas of importance. For example, close-up at the office and less focused there for television watching at home. Tim Agree, in addition ...
by swaption
Mon Jun 24, 2019 3:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Opticians: is there any difference in quality of Costco glasses?
Replies: 76
Views: 172395

Re: Opticians: is there any difference in quality of Costco glasses?

Opticians and physicians I have known often have several pairs of glasses for use in different settings, one that are laser focused on specific characteristics in areas of importance. For example, close-up at the office and less focused there for television watching at home. Tim Agree, in addition ...
by swaption
Mon Jun 24, 2019 11:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Opticians: is there any difference in quality of Costco glasses?
Replies: 76
Views: 172395

Re: Opticians: is there any difference in quality of Costco glasses?

This thread was helpful to me, so thought I would share my experience. Needed progressive lens sunglasses. I have degenerative issues in my retina, so really need to get these things right, and preferably without breaking the bank in the process. Costco offered progressive lenses with the Drivewear ...
by swaption
Fri May 03, 2019 4:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Rotational Program at MegaCorp for college grad hires
Replies: 40
Views: 2847

Re: Rotational Program at MegaCorp for college grad hires

My advice would be for you and your son to take a big step back from the situation. The words you use, like "discriminatory" and 'holding him back", as well as the comparisons to others in terms of salary and experience have no place in this topic. It's a really bad mindset to have wh...
by swaption
Fri May 03, 2019 11:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sitting on $1.5m cash - need help
Replies: 53
Views: 15080

Re: Sitting on $1.5m cash - need help

I'd propose an allocation below 80%. This really speaks to the inquiry of others, what are your goals? With your income, I'd be less concerned with what you do now as I would be formulating a plan for the future. You will have a tremendous amount of after tax savings, and you will need a robust pla...
by swaption
Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Earned income for 9 year old
Replies: 52
Views: 3794

Re: Earned income for 9 year old

Just because something is technically within the law, doesn't mean others won't look at it as fundamentally being tax fraud. No doubt there is a whole cottage industry around this type of thing. The IRS has been moving in the direction of looking at things based less on technical criteria and more ...
by swaption
Tue Apr 30, 2019 12:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Earned income for 9 year old
Replies: 52
Views: 3794

Re: Earned income for 9 year old

Just because something is technically within the law, doesn't mean others won't look at it as fundamentally being tax fraud. No doubt there is a whole cottage industry around this type of thing. The IRS has been moving in the direction of looking at things based less on technical criteria and more b...
by swaption
Tue Apr 30, 2019 9:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sitting on $1.5m cash - need help
Replies: 53
Views: 15080

Re: Sitting on $1.5m cash - need help

I'd propose an allocation below 80%. This really speaks to the inquiry of others, what are your goals? With your income, I'd be less concerned with what you do now as I would be formulating a plan for the future. You will have a tremendous amount of after tax savings, and you will need a robust pla...
by swaption
Mon Apr 29, 2019 2:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sitting on $1.5m cash - need help
Replies: 53
Views: 15080

Re: Sitting on $1.5m cash - need help

I'd propose an allocation below 80%. This really speaks to the inquiry of others, what are your goals? With your income, I'd be less concerned with what you do now as I would be formulating a plan for the future. You will have a tremendous amount of after tax savings, and you will need a robust plan...
by swaption
Wed Jan 02, 2019 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any reason for optimism?
Replies: 81
Views: 3446

Re: Any reason for optimism?

Yes, reason is the same as reason why you were not asking this question back in September.
by swaption
Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: II - The Wall Street Math Hustle
Replies: 21
Views: 3541

Re: II - The Wall Street Math Hustle

Thank for sharing, I agree with most everything in the article... A statistic I found interesting (but not surprising a la Pareto distributions): ... According to Hendrik Bessembinder, a finance professor at Arizona State University, the entire gain in the U.S. stock market since 1926 is attributab...
by swaption
Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: II - The Wall Street Math Hustle
Replies: 21
Views: 3541

Re: II - The Wall Street Math Hustle

Original poster here. In my opinion, a bunch of garbled, barely coherent BS. Sure, there are a couple of ok ideas. But he uses his math quite selectively, throwing neat statistics around, and in some case throwing nothing around. Take the following passage: If it were that easy, active managers woul...
by swaption
Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: II - The Wall Street Math Hustle
Replies: 21
Views: 3541

II - The Wall Street Math Hustle

Have my views on this, interested in others.

https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/a ... ath-hustle
by swaption
Thu Aug 16, 2018 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 122274

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

If we assumed for a moment that the EMH was false, I wonder how many would still be beating the global market cap drum. If EMH were false, it would be because some set of investors could effectively look at fundamentals, the future, and systemically beat the market. Nothing you have said reflects a...
by swaption
Thu Aug 16, 2018 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 122274

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

If we assumed for a moment that the EMH was false, I wonder how many would still be beating the global market cap drum. If EMH were false, it would be because some set of investors could effectively look at fundamentals, the future, and systemically beat the market. Nothing you have said reflects a...
by swaption
Thu Aug 16, 2018 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 122274

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Let me introduce you to Robert Sanborn, the esteemed manager of the Oakmark Fund from 1991 until the date of the below article, March 2000: https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB953681829305722131 For those thinking of giving up on international, here's your chance to not fire Robert Sanborn. Just one othe...
by swaption
Thu Jul 05, 2018 2:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $1 million house--- sanity check
Replies: 105
Views: 15136

Re: $1 million house--- sanity check

Again, we definitely do not need this house now, we are just forward thinking and are afraid of not being able to afford it when we need it later on. As others have alluded to, think for a moment how crazy this is. First off, what was entirely evident from the beginning is that your entire motivati...
by swaption
Tue May 29, 2018 9:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Glasses, ball sports, and aging eyes
Replies: 29
Views: 7217

Re: Glasses, ball sports, and aging eyes

Almost daily player, I wear Costco progressives for everything but tennis. For tennis I use distance correction contacts. It works for me. You folks really are awesome. Have been involved in some form of this forum for 15+ years. So when I do a generic google search regarding corrective lenses and ...
by swaption
Thu Mar 30, 2017 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: anyone factor in future inheritance?
Replies: 78
Views: 7637

Re: anyone factor in future inheritance?

I take a somewhat simplified approach, essentially reap what you sow. To the extent there is an inheritance, this means someone along the way not only lived within their means, but managed to save on top of that. My plan is to do the same. To the extent there is inheritance (which is actually likely...
by swaption
Fri Mar 24, 2017 1:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wimbledon 2017 - Experiences?
Replies: 10
Views: 1121

Re: Wimbledon 2017 - Experiences?

For the US Open, every year I have had a client event on that first Thursday, which is a great day. But I think the optimal day for a grounds pass is the first Saturday. Should be third round matches and plenty of them on the outer courts, Grandstand, etc. Not impossible you can get some serious ten...
by swaption
Thu Feb 16, 2017 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I may be a workaholic?
Replies: 24
Views: 3340

Re: I may be a workaholic?

Working and being productive is an integral part of the human condition, and I don't think there is anything in our ecosystem that dictates that necessarily has to change in your 50's. Age is just a number, and I wouldn't let any of society's broad rules or conventions play any role in how you live ...
by swaption
Tue Feb 07, 2017 12:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why Wouldn't You Want International Stocks?
Replies: 96
Views: 11199

Re: Do You Really Need International Stocks?

As long as the future resembles the past, you'll do fine. The main reason I invest a significant portion of my equity overseas is because I think there is a reasonable chance that will not be the case. See Japan for the classic example. Oh, yes! I know about Japan. Yet can you expand upon your view...
by swaption
Thu Jan 05, 2017 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager
Replies: 187
Views: 26057

Re: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager

If you're using post-1926 US returns, consider yourself pulled over by the data mining police: you're picking one of the best performing nations, using a cherry-picked starting point (ie, start in 1900 and things look a lot different), and not taking into consideration a roughly subsequent 2x incre...
by swaption
Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager
Replies: 187
Views: 26057

Re: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager

If you're using post-1926 US returns, consider yourself pulled over by the data mining police: you're picking one of the best performing nations, using a cherry-picked starting point (ie, start in 1900 and things look a lot different), and not taking into consideration a roughly subsequent 2x incre...
by swaption
Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Don't Shoot. Questioning 401k
Replies: 28
Views: 3747

Re: Don't Shoot. Questioning 401k

You are avoiding taxes at your highest marginal rate right now. Let's say that's 28%. When you withdraw, you will withdraw starting at an effective rate of 0%. Then 10%, then 15% then 25%, etc. as you withdraw enough to move up through the tax brackets. Unpredictable things can happen to change you...
by swaption
Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Surprise financial disaster, severe debt $300K caused by brother-in-law - Please help!
Replies: 258
Views: 76132

Re: Surprise financial disaster, severe debt $300K caused by brother-in-law - Please help!

Unfortunately, I can say I know this family, even though my guess is I probably don't. As one who has funded a couple of Bat Mitzvahs, many summers at sleepaway camp, and all the requisite children's activities, this type of family strikes all too close to home. Lots of friendly folks out there taki...
by swaption
Thu Dec 22, 2016 9:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring in a Decade after Graduation
Replies: 131
Views: 18912

Re: Retiring in a Decade after Graduation

With all due respect, it's not going off topic if the original poster constructively replies to a meaning of life comment, which includes a further inquiry. Please don't ask about the potential for a meaningful life if ultimately the answer really is that you don't care. Some of us didn't just gradu...
by swaption
Thu Dec 22, 2016 4:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring in a Decade after Graduation
Replies: 131
Views: 18912

Re: Retiring in a Decade after Graduation

Interesting thread. Not sure how I've missed it the last two weeks. It's obviously possible to do this. Lots of people have. The key isn't the investing return, it's the savings rate. However, it seems a waste to spend even ten years of your life (and fourteen counting your degree) doing something ...
by swaption
Tue Dec 20, 2016 6:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring in a Decade after Graduation
Replies: 131
Views: 18912

Re: Retiring in a Decade after Graduation

OP, your situation and goals are very similar to mine almost 10 years ago. Your goal here *is* possible (I more or less achieved it) but it is definitely the road less traveled. Here's some of my experience in case it's helpful: I am (or was) a ChemE and I wanted to work a max of 10 years in corpor...
by swaption
Fri Nov 18, 2016 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation Protection: TIPS or Gold?
Replies: 35
Views: 6531

Re: Inflation Protection: TIPS or Gold?

Kind of surprised at the uniformity of replies here. TIPS may indeed be a better investment, and that investment is to a large extent insulated from inflation. But if someone were looking for something that provides broader portfolio wide protection (assuming a portfolio of non-TIPS bonds and stocks...
by swaption
Tue Oct 18, 2016 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: P/E Ratio and E/P Ratio
Replies: 47
Views: 4013

Re: P/E Ratio and E/P Ratio

Not sure what else I can add. Might be most beneficial to simply look at the following history of earnings and dividends for the S&P 500. Obviously some amount of volatility along the way, but you see the rising tide of earnings, dividends, and that portion of earnings that is retained. The rise...
by swaption
Mon Oct 17, 2016 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: P/E Ratio and E/P Ratio
Replies: 47
Views: 4013

Re: P/E Ratio and E/P Ratio

Put very simply in a simplistic model, the expected stock price appreciation should be based on the net earnings yield, after distribution of dividends. In your example, of the 6.67% earnings yield, let's assume 3% is paid out as dividends. The expected price appreciation attributable only to earnin...
by swaption
Fri Oct 14, 2016 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is information a bad thing for returns??
Replies: 42
Views: 3409

Re: Is information a bad thing for returns??

I disagree. It's a lot easier to find good no load funds nowadays, especially if you do it yourself and stay away from sharks. The fact that interest rates are at historic lows in a completely separate issue... Issue is we are in a low return environment stocks bonds interest rates etc. They are no...
by swaption
Fri Oct 14, 2016 8:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Leasing a Car with Intention to Buy at End
Replies: 40
Views: 8771

Re: Leasing a Car with Intention to Buy at End

2-3 year old tacomas at least from carmax are only a thousand or two lower than their original MSRP. It sucks their is no lease incentives but I assume that is because of the high residual value estimate. You really do have to understand what is going on here. 2-3 years ago that Tacoma residual was...
by swaption
Thu Oct 13, 2016 1:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Leasing a Car with Intention to Buy at End
Replies: 40
Views: 8771

Re: Leasing a Car with Intention to Buy at End

Very bad idea. The way a manufacturer provides incentives in a lease is to subsidize the contract residual value. What this does is it artificially inflates the contract lease end purchase price to a level above what is expected, and thereby it reduces the monthly lease payments. As a result, the le...
by swaption
Wed Sep 14, 2016 8:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who is ready for iphone 7?
Replies: 149
Views: 18880

Re: Who is ready for iphone 7?

Understand that over here there would be skeptics, but this is the real deal in terms of trade-in. Hit the $650 trade-in for the iphone 6 on my wife's phone, when I was actually only calling to upgrade my daughter's phone. In her case, she has a 5C for which they were offering an equally absurd reb...
by swaption
Tue Sep 13, 2016 4:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Big Short
Replies: 196
Views: 31572

Re: The Big Short

I thoroughly enjoyed the movie, as did my gf, which surprised me since she is not particularly interested in finance. The one shocking feature to me was the mention at the end of the 2015 appearance of the "Bespoke Tranche Opportunity", described as a repackaging of the old familiar CDO w...
by swaption
Tue Sep 13, 2016 3:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who is ready for iphone 7?
Replies: 149
Views: 18880

Re: Who is ready for iphone 7?

Understand that over here there would be skeptics, but this is the real deal in terms of trade-in. Hit the $650 trade-in for the iphone 6 on my wife's phone, when I was actually only calling to upgrade my daughter's phone. In her case, she has a 5C for which they were offering an equally absurd reba...
by swaption
Tue Aug 09, 2016 10:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How dangerous is Kids Gymnastics?
Replies: 38
Views: 7264

Re: How dangerous is Kids Gymnastics?

Our daughter made it to the beginning of Level 7. At Level 5, she broke both bones in her forearm. Really crazy getting that phone call and then seeing your daughter's arm in a different shape. The x-ray was like a caricature of an x-ray, but no surgery necessary. She came back, and then left at Lev...
by swaption
Fri Jul 29, 2016 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Revisiting Dr. Bernstein on REITs
Replies: 30
Views: 6109

Re: Revisiting Dr. Bernstein on REITs

Hi Swaption, Isn't it a bit early to celebrate victory??? :happy If I line up total stock (VTI) vs say vanguard REIT (VNQ) from day following Dr Bernstein post, I think Morningstar says my REITs are still down by ~15% compared to selling all and buying VTI or S&P500. http://quotes.morningstar.c...
by swaption
Thu Jul 28, 2016 8:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What makes people succeed?
Replies: 98
Views: 13280

Re: What makes people succeed?

You want to be liked You want people to like working with you You want to be constructive You want to be engaged You want to be effective and productive You want to be cooperative You want to care about the effectiveness of your group and your organization You want to be attentive and communicate ef...
by swaption
Thu Jul 28, 2016 6:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rules of Thumb: Max House Value as % of Net Worth?
Replies: 113
Views: 40244

Re: Rules of Thumb: Max House Value as % of Net Worth?

What are some good prudent rules of thumb for one's max house value as a % of net worth? It seems a lot of people think about it from an income perspective, but I have not come across a rule of thumb for net worth. Obviously this is a complicated consideration and dependent on many factors (e.g., w...