Search found 2281 matches

by rascott
Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So, you want to tilt to growth
Replies: 24
Views: 1703

Re: So, you want to tilt to growth

Investors buy recent winners rather than build a well-balanced portfolio because of a myopic view of performance. Over the last 40 years, growth has outperformed value 20 times, and value has outperformed growth 20 times, but in the recent past growth has outperformed. so if value and growth have o...
by rascott
Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So, you want to tilt to growth
Replies: 24
Views: 1703

Re: So, you want to tilt to growth

Investors buy recent winners rather than build a well-balanced portfolio because of a myopic view of performance. Over the last 40 years, growth has outperformed value 20 times, and value has outperformed growth 20 times, but in the recent past growth has outperformed. so if value and growth have o...
by rascott
Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Merrill Edge transaction fee?
Replies: 12
Views: 780

Re: Merrill Edge transaction fee?

Hi, I recently moved from all my fund from Fidelity to Merrill Edge for the bonus and because I heard great reviews about ME from this forum. However I am having a bad experience thus far. I would like to know if my experience is legit or I am missing something. 1) Initially I tried to buy Fidelity...
by rascott
Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard U.S. Growth: Give me a reason
Replies: 30
Views: 8097

Re: Vanguard U.S. Growth: Give me a reason

Fascinating thread. This fund appears to have been the best performing Vanguard MF in existence over the last 10 years.
by rascott
Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2679
Views: 199249

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

This thread has been getting too technical... getting back to our regularly scheduled programming, SCV is soaring! AVUV in particular is teasing me and saying "VBR is for wusses!". Also Jim O just realized a podcast discussing the "historic opportunity" in small-caps: https://osampodcast.libsyn.com...
by rascott
Thu Sep 17, 2020 6:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2679
Views: 199249

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

YRT70 wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 6:13 am
rascott wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:26 am Thanks Robert.... I'm sure you've shared it before.... but care sharing your actual fund holdings?
It's in the quote above this post.
Thanks!
by rascott
Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2679
Views: 199249

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

. Just did a quick check-in on sources of my portfolio return since start of 2003 to yesterday. +7.1% = "Global market portfolio": 55% world stock:45% bonds +0.8% = From stock:bond decision* +0.0% = From within bond decisions** +0.7% = From within stock decisions*** +8.6% = Total return * Higher st...
by rascott
Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2679
Views: 199249

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Great day... just need 30 more of these :D AVUV +1.1% SPY -0.4% MTUM -1.18% on the international side AVDV +0.30% VEU -0.17% By my calc, SLYV/IJS needs to go up about 35%, while VTI goes absolutely nowhere. .... just to get back to where we could have been over a year ago with a boring one fund sol...
by rascott
Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Growth v. value in two Vanguard active international funds
Replies: 20
Views: 1015

Re: Growth v. value in two Vanguard active international funds

One of only a couple actively managed funds I still own is a Columbia Threadneedle fund, Acorn Intl. It continues to beat the international index seemingly every year. That said, it's more of a mid- cap growth style fund, so guess I shouldn't be surprised.
by rascott
Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Growth v. value in two Vanguard active international funds
Replies: 20
Views: 1015

Re: Growth v. value in two Vanguard active international funds

Defining "international" can be a funny thing. Indexes have different methodologies and even committees trying to disambiguate their own rules. There are stocks in Vanguard's S&P 500 fund that are in Vanguard's "Total International" fund. It's been awhile since I tried to search for them, there use...
by rascott
Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2679
Views: 199249

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Would anybody advocate investing in the broader s&p 600 (as opposed to specifically s&p 600 value) as a sufficient value position at this point in time? I was looking at morningstar metrics and s&p 600 average p/s is .78 and price to cash flow is about 6, for example. That to me seems to have a val...
by rascott
Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 8817
Views: 696996

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Forester wrote: Mon Sep 14, 2020 8:44 am
lostdog wrote: Mon Sep 14, 2020 7:45 am
Forester wrote: Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:12 am Whatever churn occurs from here on out, the Nasdaq high is in; it won't go above 12,000 for a very long time to come. A dividend yield of 0.6%? Not very enticing.
Will you guess how long?
5 years if inflation stays where it is moreorless.
5 days may be more realistic.
by rascott
Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wondering why Value funds have done so poorly?
Replies: 16
Views: 2041

Re: Wondering why Value funds have done so poorly?

Value funds hold a lot of energy and financials and both these sectors have been terrible underperformers. Banks will come back when the interest rates rise - whenever that is. And energy will come back when surpluses are depleted and economic growth picks up. I think it will take awhile. There are...
by rascott
Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VTI vs VOO vs VV tax impact?
Replies: 20
Views: 1509

Re: VTI vs VOO vs VV tax impact?

MotoTrojan wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:30 pm Just to throw a curve-ball, I seem to recall ITOT (also Total Market like VTI) is marginally more tax-efficient ;).
Yet these two funds have not given the same returns over time..... according to PV... in some years the differences are as big as nearly 1%.

Must use different indexes.
by rascott
Tue Sep 15, 2020 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VTI vs VOO vs VV tax impact?
Replies: 20
Views: 1509

Re: VTI vs VOO vs VV tax impact?

Irrelevant. Literally talking like a few $ difference, at most.
by rascott
Tue Sep 15, 2020 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wondering why Value funds have done so poorly?
Replies: 16
Views: 2041

Re: Wondering why Value funds have done so poorly?

There are plenty of non- tech, growth companies that have done very well.... so it's not just a tech phenomenon.
by rascott
Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 8817
Views: 696996

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Forester wrote: Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:23 pm Nasdaq already running out of steam and hours still to go.
Didn't you also tell people that SP500 @ 2800 was a respectable exit point?
by rascott
Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those concerned about International Stocks...
Replies: 162
Views: 13944

Re: For those concerned about International Stocks...

Performance chasing is a bad thing. But if it's US performance chasing, then it's a good thing. EMH works, but only for US. Only the US has a free market and democracy. It's only performance chasing if you are actually chasing. Many of us never held large allocations to international equities. I've...
by rascott
Sat Sep 12, 2020 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Irrational Exuberance- Is completely ignoring all external signals (p/e) and auto-investing monthly ever a bad idea?
Replies: 54
Views: 3857

Re: Irrational Exuberance- Is completely ignoring all external signals (p/e) and auto-investing monthly ever a bad idea?

Well, Bogle did switch his stock allocation from 65% to 35% in late 1999, which worked out well. I figure I'm not as smart or rich as him though, nor am I in my 70s, so I stick with the 75/25 that I've got. Intermediate term bonds were paying 7% or so at that time..... and equity P/Es were higher t...
by rascott
Sat Sep 12, 2020 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Irrational Exuberance- Is completely ignoring all external signals (p/e) and auto-investing monthly ever a bad idea?
Replies: 54
Views: 3857

Re: Irrational Exuberance- Is completely ignoring all external signals (p/e) and auto-investing monthly ever a bad idea?

P/Es are only relevant when adjusted for underlying interest rates. For all we know 30x may well be the "norm" for decades..... if interest rates are going to stay sub-1%.
by rascott
Sat Sep 12, 2020 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any further reason to hold DLS?
Replies: 28
Views: 1664

Re: Any further reason to hold DLS?

Have held DLS (small cap international) since 2007 due to enthusiasm on this site (at the time) for this asset class. It appears to have languished over the last 14 years, vastly underperforming many other asset classes. It had an amazingly bad drawdown in 2008 (about 60%) and has a higher SD and "...
by rascott
Sat Sep 12, 2020 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.
Replies: 166
Views: 8553

Re: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.

"Indeed, over the period through year-end 2019, U.S stocks outperformed foreign stocks over the trailing five, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 40 and 50 years."

Enough said.
by rascott
Fri Sep 11, 2020 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Winklevoss: The Case for $500,000 Bitcoin
Replies: 338
Views: 21618

Re: Winklevoss: The Case for $500,000 Bitcoin

I own exactly 1 BTC I bought back in 2015 or 16.... can't even recall. whenever Coinbase started and it was easy to purchase finally. I look forward to my $500k cash out, LOL. In all seriousness.... why is BTC going to be worth anything when it's likely that other cryptos have come along and built a...
by rascott
Fri Sep 11, 2020 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are the days of 7% avg index returns over?
Replies: 65
Views: 9438

Re: Are the days of 7% avg index returns over?

... In which investing time period has a total stock market index fund barely kept up with inflation ? I'd like to see some evidence for your opinion ... You can use portfoliovisualizer.com to answer that question. How about the well known "lost decade" of 2000-2009 where VTSMX lost money? Add an e...
by rascott
Fri Sep 11, 2020 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are the days of 7% avg index returns over?
Replies: 65
Views: 9438

Re: Are the days of 7% avg index returns over?

I expect fairly putrid returns from US equities over the next decade or so. Hopefully I'm wrong.
by rascott
Fri Sep 11, 2020 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too much S&P 500 index concentration in FAAMGs?
Replies: 67
Views: 3924

Re: Too much S&P 500 index concentration in FAAMGs?

QVAL holds no banks. At 0.49% ER, I'd rather own individual stocks. Ironic that people are willing to pay 0.49% ER to "BUY THE CHEAPEST , HIGHEST QUALITY VALUE STOCKS" [emphasis mine]. ETF wrapper provides tax advantages you couldn’t get on your individual stocks but it is a higher ER than I’d nece...
by rascott
Fri Sep 11, 2020 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too much S&P 500 index concentration in FAAMGs?
Replies: 67
Views: 3924

Re: Too much S&P 500 index concentration in FAAMGs?

I know you SCV guys are chomping at the bit for your day in the sun... But somehow I don't think SCV (aka Regional Banks) is the answer to too much in Big Tech. Sorry... QVAL holds no banks. At 0.49% ER, I'd rather own individual stocks. Ironic that people are willing to pay 0.49% ER to "BUY THE CH...
by rascott
Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it really passive index if S&P actively excludes Tesla?
Replies: 145
Views: 9961

Re: Modern Indexing SP500

If it's not a pretty close representation of the total market.... why does it's returns nearly mirror the total market index fund?

This isn't something to bother worrying about
by rascott
Wed Sep 09, 2020 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying covid hit stocks
Replies: 30
Views: 1752

Re: Buying covid hit stocks

I think it's crazy to write off AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, & GOOG. Yes, agree completely. These are a different breed of company from anything that existed a generation ago. The customer/vendor network maintained by their respective technology platforms provides not only a near perfect defense from competit...
by rascott
Tue Sep 08, 2020 7:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to build an emergency fund?
Replies: 95
Views: 6199

Re: Best way to build an emergency fund?

Rather than halting Roth IRA contributions I would just use it as part of your emergency fund (leave it in money market). If an emergency comes up, you withdraw it penalty free and lose the Roth space, oh well. If no emergency comes up you can eventually move it to your asset allocation once you ha...
by rascott
Tue Sep 08, 2020 6:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are the days of 7% avg index returns over?
Replies: 65
Views: 9438

Re: Are the days of 7% avg index returns over?

7%? I have been getting 15.5% ROI with FXAIX (Fidelity 500 Index) the last 10 years year to date and I am very happy. Which greatly increases the odds that it may well return close to nothing over the next ten years. Much like international has this past decade. Or the SP500 did the prior decade.
by rascott
Sun Sep 06, 2020 7:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying vs. Renting Principles
Replies: 204
Views: 12134

Re: Buying vs. Renting Principles (Sticky Thread Request)

I agree with basically everything written here. Going beyond 3x income is going to put you with a relatively tight budget. Not going to bankrupt you.... but puts too much of your financial world tied up in one property. Now this is obviously a very general rule of thumb, and totally ignores the big...
by rascott
Sun Sep 06, 2020 5:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying vs. Renting Principles
Replies: 204
Views: 12134

Re: Buying vs. Renting Principles (Sticky Thread Request)

I agree with basically everything written here. Going beyond 3x income is going to put you with a relatively tight budget. Not going to bankrupt you.... but puts too much of your financial world tied up in one property. Now this is obviously a very general rule of thumb, and totally ignores the bigg...
by rascott
Sun Sep 06, 2020 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In accumulation phase, should you ever need more than 10% fixed income?
Replies: 27
Views: 2246

Re: In accumulation phase, should you ever need more than 10% fixed income?

There is no way my current investments could sustain me if I were to liquidate them. Only when my holdings could sustain me for 10+ years would I consider putting some of my $ into bonds. For now, if I lose my job, I need to find another job. Simple as that. I can't rely on the current value of my ...
by rascott
Fri Sep 04, 2020 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2679
Views: 199249

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

[ Ex: Two firms, one twice as big as the other in every way (twice as much debt, twice as much book value, etc etc). The bigger company might be allowed to borrow twice as much, but it doesn't get to borrow any cheaper just because it's bigger. This surprises me. My intuition would be that Google c...
by rascott
Fri Sep 04, 2020 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SoftBank partially responsible for tech stock rally in recent weeks?
Replies: 51
Views: 5781

Re: SoftBank partially responsible for tech stock rally in recent weeks?

Edit: If you don’t understand options, buying $4 Billion in call options forces banks to buy shares worth Hundreds of Billions to cover their end No. The banks chose to write the options and then buy the underlying. The banks weren't forced to write options. To me this sounds straight up securities...
by rascott
Fri Sep 04, 2020 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SoftBank partially responsible for tech stock rally in recent weeks?
Replies: 51
Views: 5781

Re: SoftBank partially responsible for tech stock rally in recent weeks?

This is something that actually makes sense for the bubble up..... rather than RH/retail. Massive call option buying certainly will drive up prices. Option market makers aren't in the business to take the other side of a trade.... they are in it to skim premium and arbitrage. If they are short a loa...
by rascott
Fri Sep 04, 2020 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should I be investing in a down or downing market for retirement?
Replies: 37
Views: 3095

Re: Why should I be investing in a down or downing market for retirement?

If I had invested in 2007 and the market dropped, why would I invest more money? The indeces show negative returns for that year. once a major recession is underway and the indeces are likely to be negative for the year, You are using year end as an artificial mile post. What if stocks dropped by 5...
by rascott
Fri Sep 04, 2020 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2679
Views: 199249

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

There is no doubt that following the total collapse of the LCG tech bubble in 2000 -3, IJS, the SCV Fund, outperformed both the S&P 500 and TSM until 9/2020. In the absence of the tech bubble which reached extreme valuations that have not been seen since (including now) SCV has not outperformed sin...
by rascott
Fri Sep 04, 2020 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2679
Views: 199249

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I sometimes think I am taking crazy-pills with the way people talk about DFSVX's failure to beat the S&P500. Are we looking at the same data? Yes I understand to actually hold this you needed to pay 1% AUM. That is no longer the case, but noted and my point still stands with that drag. Would you al...
by rascott
Thu Sep 03, 2020 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20070
Views: 2745021

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I am just genuinely curious, what spurs this tank? I mean is it MM, hedge funds or who is driving it down..Do they sit together and decide yeah its sep 2nd, not april fools day lets play some games and create panic - surely its not the FED doing it..i never understood the timing / day of why this h...
by rascott
Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Skipping a Buyer's Real Estate Agent
Replies: 53
Views: 2899

Re: Skipping a Buyer's Real Estate Agent

It's a good plan, except many of the contracts the seller signs with an agent specifies the selling agent gets either 5% (slight discount) or the whole 6% if the buyer has no agent. At least the ones I have seen have that language in there. Maybe have a discount agent that will kick the funds back ...
by rascott
Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Skipping a Buyer's Real Estate Agent
Replies: 53
Views: 2899

Re: Skipping a Buyer's Real Estate Agent

Can anyone provide an actual example of a buyer's agent actually "saving their bacon"? By that I don't mean simply negotiating a little better deal, but providing information that caused you to not make an offer, or offer substantially less $$ than you were originally planning on offering? Typicall...
by rascott
Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Skipping a Buyer's Real Estate Agent
Replies: 53
Views: 2899

Re: Skipping a Buyer's Real Estate Agent

If, hypothetically, a shopping mall was going to be built accross the street, my understanding is the Seller must disclose that, if he knows. But suppose the seller doesnt know about it, but the seller's Agent knows. Does it have to be disclosed? It would also strike me that the seller's agent woul...
by rascott
Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need Help with Life Insurance Question
Replies: 23
Views: 1021

Re: Need Help with Life Insurance Question

If using term4sale, those are brokers that shop a ton of insurers, so likely the best they can do.

That's certainly very high rates... unless they are smoking rates. I have $1m, twenty year policy for like $600/yr, a little older than you.
by rascott
Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter
Replies: 111
Views: 7888

Re: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter

Can you please comment on the flip side of it then? If performance chasing puts one at a disadvantage.. then it would go without saying that taking the opposite side trade of the performance chaser would put one at an advantage. Is that your position? As others have mentioned, there are some compli...
by rascott
Thu Sep 03, 2020 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter
Replies: 111
Views: 7888

Re: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter

Decades of research and you decide to post as your representative an article that argues against your position? As I said, the evidence is voluminous and readily searchable. Some highlights: https://www.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGQFP.pdf https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2168768 http://w...
by rascott
Wed Sep 02, 2020 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter
Replies: 111
Views: 7888

Re: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter

I think this discussion is getting confused a bit. If we agree that performance chasing is more likely going to trail the market over time.. . Than the obvious flip side is that some type of "buying the dogs" would have a greater chance of outperforming the market. This is like some type of negativ...
by rascott
Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter
Replies: 111
Views: 7888

Re: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter

I think this discussion is getting confused a bit. If we agree that performance chasing is more likely going to trail the market over time.. . Than the obvious flip side is that some type of "buying the dogs" would have a greater chance of outperforming the market. This is like some type of negativ...
by rascott
Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter
Replies: 111
Views: 7888

Re: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter

I think this discussion is getting confused a bit. If we agree that performance chasing is more likely going to trail the market over time.. . Than the obvious flip side is that some type of "buying the dogs" would have a greater chance of outperforming the market. This is like some type of negativ...