Search found 2006 matches

by rascott
Fri May 29, 2020 12:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Two accountants disagree - Bogleheads for the tiebreaker
Replies: 64
Views: 3575

Re: Two accountants disagree - Bogleheads for the tiebreaker

Yeah! If one of my daughters happened to be part of this couple there is no way in Hades I would advise them to take anything but a 50/50 split. And, I would give the same advice to a son. Sure, like all married couples there is no chance of a split, until there is! "Until death do us part" is only...
by rascott
Fri May 29, 2020 12:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Two accountants disagree - Bogleheads for the tiebreaker
Replies: 64
Views: 3575

Re: Two accountants disagree - Bogleheads for the tiebreaker

They have the option to decide who earns the income on each sale throughout the year. Is anyone bothered by this assumption? Gill That was my first thought as well. A Qualified Joint Venture is a substitute for a partnership. A partnership requires a written declaration of partner shares, but not f...
by rascott
Fri May 29, 2020 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Two accountants disagree - Bogleheads for the tiebreaker
Replies: 64
Views: 3575

Re: Two accountants disagree - Bogleheads for the tiebreaker

I'm admittedly not an expert on social security, but my fear would be that in the event of divorce, the wife may get a raw deal. JT Yeah! If one of my daughters happened to be part of this couple there is no way in Hades I would advise them to take anything but a 50/50 split. And, I would give the ...
by rascott
Thu May 28, 2020 10:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: mortgage rates
Replies: 27
Views: 2423

Re: mortgage rates

Those closing costs seem outrageous. What price point we talking here?
by rascott
Thu May 28, 2020 10:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: mortgage rates
Replies: 27
Views: 2423

Re: mortgage rates

Those closing cost with Chase and Better both seem astronomical to me. I would look for a no cost mortgage (except prepaids) in order to do true apples to apples. I am closing on a no cost 3.125% 30 year mortgage in a week or so. Others have been able to do even better. Where did you get this? Best...
by rascott
Thu May 28, 2020 7:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My idea for a 1-fund Vanguard-only portfolio
Replies: 12
Views: 1658

Re: My idea for a 1-fund Vanguard-only portfolio

This is an idea for sure..... just a pretty bad one
by rascott
Wed May 27, 2020 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1484
Views: 120527

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

SCV is the frenetic, over- caffeinated cousin of the large cap indexes. Glad I not only held, but gently rebalanced into some more SCV when the spreads were really peaking. It's exceedingly difficult to sell the stuff that's been doing relatively well, to buy the beaten down stinker.
by rascott
Wed May 27, 2020 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leveraged SMA200 Strategy Back-tested 1929 - 2019
Replies: 87
Views: 5623

Re: Leveraged SMA200 Strategy Back-tested 1929 - 2019

nice work op. check this article out. https://sentimentrader.com/blog/moving-averages/ My ignorant thoughts on that article; For the last 25 years or so of stocks, his optimal strategy is worse than B&H, and the basic strategies are dramatically worse. The optimal strategy, each case, opened up a h...
by rascott
Wed May 27, 2020 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5720
Views: 488318

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Hyperchicken wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 3:00 pm
...And across the line!

Closed for the day at 3036.
Time to lever up!
by rascott
Wed May 27, 2020 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 vs World Performance
Replies: 195
Views: 11993

Re: S&P500 vs World Performance

Diversification isn't about maximizing returns. Otherwise everyone would just buy QQQ instead of SP500. I mean 100 stocks are more than enough for sure and you even get a higher return. Most people buying global market cap equities don't really understand diversification. They've just gone so far d...
by rascott
Wed May 27, 2020 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 vs World Performance
Replies: 195
Views: 11993

Re: S&P500 vs World Performance

Ah yes..... the "total world" investors again gnashing their teeth about the "undiversified" heathens that only own US equities.

Maybe in some lifetime they'll be proven right. I doubt it...
by rascott
Wed May 27, 2020 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 186
Views: 17854

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

So I don't really see any hot takes here on predictions of inflation versus deflation in a scenario of protracted recession with several injections of stimulus. I guess I'll just keep the money in my settlement fund until I start redeploying into stocks in the next 2–18 months. As for people saying...
by rascott
Wed May 27, 2020 12:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This article is scaring me. [Roubini predicting depression]
Replies: 90
Views: 9470

Re: This article is scaring me.

I tend to find myself agreeing with most of his macro points.... but the only answer to them is really to continue to own US large cap equities. Outside of putting large allocations to something like gold, which goes against my beliefs of "investing "
by rascott
Wed May 27, 2020 12:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?
Replies: 237
Views: 15461

Re: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?

And what's worse is you were telling others to sell. Do you know how much money you potentially costs others who read your message and listened to you? Whoa now. Everyone is responsible for their own decisions. If someone decided to change their investment strategy on the basis of what an anonymous...
by rascott
Tue May 26, 2020 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leveraged SMA200 Strategy Back-tested 1929 - 2019
Replies: 87
Views: 5623

Re: Leveraged SMA200 Strategy Back-tested 1929 - 2019

randyharris wrote:
Tue May 26, 2020 11:49 am
See if it holds the 200 through month end.
Didn't even close above it today

I personally use the weekly, instead of the daily.
by rascott
Tue May 26, 2020 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Statistics on timers in market crashes?
Replies: 103
Views: 5143

Re: Statistics on timers in market crashes?

One paper I saw showed a nearly 1% advantage in terms of annualized absolute returns for the 200 DMA approach. I'm trying to find it again now. Yes - I am not a timer but I believe I saw and read the same article a whole back. But are we not now on a 200 DMA that would signal buys again? No. The 20...
by rascott
Tue May 26, 2020 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5720
Views: 488318

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

cpan00b wrote:
Tue May 26, 2020 10:10 am
Yikes now I regret taking 100k off the table - should have just kept to auto investing. Now the hesitation on when to enter back in...

The biggest problem indeed.
by rascott
Tue May 26, 2020 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5720
Views: 488318

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

This is setting up to be the mother of all whipsaws for those trend followers that only trade monthly. Could well have been a sub 2500 April 1 exit and a 3000+ June 1 re-entry.
by rascott
Sat May 23, 2020 10:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance appraisal issue
Replies: 16
Views: 1176

Re: Refinance appraisal issue

I don't get it.  I watch the local market pretty close and haven't seen a decline, especially that magnitude. Everyone I know in real estate says everything is going well in my area, at least up until C19 and it hasn't had time to do much yet. If you think 15-20% unemployment and more pain to come ...
by rascott
Sat May 23, 2020 10:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investors: be aware of weakness in 2FA + strengthening
Replies: 153
Views: 8458

Re: Investors: be aware of weakness in 2FA + strengthening

Your supposed to have a PIN # with your wireless provider.... which must be used when changing SIMs for your number when porting. Obviously your phone would immediately stop working as well, so that would be a big red flag.
by rascott
Fri May 22, 2020 9:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Good Time for a HELOC
Replies: 18
Views: 1654

Re: Good Time for a HELOC

I keep multiple HELOCs open (personal residence and rentals) with a CU. Typically zero balances, but occasionally tap when I need quick liquidity for something large and don't want to liquidate stocks. They cost me nothing annually to keep open. No brainer. Just don't let it be your only EF
by rascott
Thu May 21, 2020 1:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT: "Vintage year" effect of graduating into a recession
Replies: 20
Views: 1967

Re: NYT: "Vintage year" effect of graduating into a recession

I can't imagine how difficult that would be in today's world. People that want to get stuff done and get ahead will still come in in person. People who want to coast will work from home. Companies will quickly realize that 90% of the work is done by 10% of the people, which is harder to realize whe...
by rascott
Thu May 21, 2020 1:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dependent Care FSA - Balance After Leaving Job?
Replies: 9
Views: 582

Re: Dependent Care FSA - Balance After Leaving Job?

The dependent care FSA is like an orphaned child. This was something that was set up in the 1980s.... and never once adjusted (for inflation, nor anything else) . It's beyond frustrating, considering child care is such a big portion of budgets for families with young kids.
by rascott
Thu May 21, 2020 1:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance Mega Thread
Replies: 1564
Views: 142665

Re: Refinance Mega Thread

Still sitting on a 3.125% 5/5 ARM (PenFed). Reset in 2 years. ARM rates are wack right now, and are worse than fixed rates. What I want is a true zero cost refi at that rate or better on a 30 year. Still floating. I'm not seeing anything as good as what some are posting now. I'll continue to wait, ...
by rascott
Thu May 21, 2020 12:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance Mega Thread
Replies: 1564
Views: 142665

Re: Refinance Mega Thread

Still sitting on a 3.125% 5/5 ARM (PenFed). Reset in 2 years. ARM rates are wack right now, and are worse than fixed rates. What I want is a true zero cost refi at that rate or better on a 30 year. Still floating. I'm not seeing anything as good as what some are posting now. I'll continue to wait, I...
by rascott
Thu May 21, 2020 12:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT: "Vintage year" effect of graduating into a recession
Replies: 20
Views: 1967

Re: NYT: "Vintage year" effect of graduating into a recession

Overall, people will adjust and the economy will move on. There are (were) tons of younger people making huge salaries coming out of school just in the past 6 months. If a work from home/ remote is the future....I do worry about the general lack of networking/ brand building that occurs in those fir...
by rascott
Thu May 21, 2020 12:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5720
Views: 488318

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Lol so is no one in this thread market timing and selling now with the hopes that S&P returns to sub 2500 with Q2 earnings? Waiting till this filthy dead cat bounce hits 5000 then I’ll sell off. That's not a dead cat bounce. That's a bull with butterfly wings. The last 6 weeks have proven what I al...
by rascott
Wed May 20, 2020 11:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Overall Online Brokerage Account
Replies: 31
Views: 2039

Re: Best Overall Online Brokerage Account

TD Ameritrade would be my choice for what you are looking for. I enjoy reading The Outlook each week, published by CFRA. A decent jumping off point for individual equity research.... free at TDA to access. Likewise, I dig the reports by analysts. I believe ME has CFRA reports as well, but don't thi...
by rascott
Wed May 20, 2020 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5720
Views: 488318

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Courtesy of this soaring market, I’m back to “even” for my portfolio value — including addition of new capital. Was a long crawl back, happy to be making new highs again. When we get back to even one day ... oh baby... can’t wait! Bought both stocks and bonds today, feels good to be buying at a dis...
by rascott
Wed May 20, 2020 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A gentle alternative to HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure with 2-Year Treasury Futures
Replies: 115
Views: 13758

Re: A gentle alternative to HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure with 2-Year Treasury Futures

I have been doing a modified Hedgefundie's strategy in tax advantage account. 70:30 (TQQQ/TMF). Its been going well but I would like to give try something in a taxable account. I opened a taxable Schwab futures account. To get my feet wet, what is the minimum amount I need to purchase for a 60:40 (...
by rascott
Wed May 20, 2020 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Overall Online Brokerage Account
Replies: 31
Views: 2039

Re: Best Overall Online Brokerage Account

TD Ameritrade would be my choice for what you are looking for.

I enjoy reading The Outlook each week, published by CFRA. A decent jumping off point for individual equity research.... free at TDA to access.
by rascott
Wed May 20, 2020 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where to park cash in Fidelity?
Replies: 62
Views: 6072

Re: Where to park cash in Fidelity?

I recall seeing a general list of fund families they offered. But having trouble finding it. There something specific you are looking for? Well if I could get Vanguard total stock VTSAX at VG expense ratio, that would be great. You can buy VTSAX for $9.95 transaction fee. Or VTI for $0 :D
by rascott
Wed May 20, 2020 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The economy is in free fall. So why isn't the stock market?"
Replies: 153
Views: 15567

Re: "The economy is in free fall. So why isn't the stock market?"

I believe that it was in David Stein's latest episode of the Money for the Rest of Us podcast that I learned that only about 17% of American workers are employed by S&P 500 firms. 17%. That alone should illustrate how the stock market does not parallel the economy. Sounds about right...I had heard ...
by rascott
Wed May 20, 2020 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where to park cash in Fidelity?
Replies: 62
Views: 6072

Re: Where to park cash in Fidelity?

Yes, market rates are extremely low. No good options at a brokerage. Banks are offering significantly higher yields currently (although they're falling too, just slower). I had been consolidating things at Fidelity, but with the current disparity between high yield bank accounts and money market fu...
by rascott
Wed May 20, 2020 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 8841

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

Years back I bought a company called China Agritech... read a lot about it, seemed a reasonable valuation and a great growth story.... fertilizer maker for a giant, growing economy. It traded on the US market (NASDAQ I believe) via ADR. Reported a couple years of good numbers, the stock went up a l...
by rascott
Tue May 19, 2020 10:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where to park cash in Fidelity?
Replies: 62
Views: 6072

Re: Where to park cash in Fidelity?

Yes, market rates are extremely low. No good options at a brokerage. Banks are offering significantly higher yields currently (although they're falling too, just slower). I had been consolidating things at Fidelity, but with the current disparity between high yield bank accounts and money market fu...
by rascott
Tue May 19, 2020 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 8841

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

Years back I bought a company called China Agritech... read a lot about it, seemed a reasonable valuation and a great growth story.... fertilizer maker for a giant, growing economy. It traded on the US market (NASDAQ I believe) via ADR. Reported a couple years of good numbers, the stock went up a lo...
by rascott
Tue May 19, 2020 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total market or S&P 500?
Replies: 44
Views: 3583

Re: Total market or S&P 500?

It's as simple as when small/ mid caps under/ over perform.....TSM will also either trail/ lead by a tiny degree.

It's irrelevant over a long period of time.
by rascott
Tue May 19, 2020 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63120

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

I recognize, especially after 2008, that I don't know the extent of the house of cards until it falls. The die was already cast in 2008, but it was a secret from most of us. I am way too ignorant of professional trading operations to know what among those people could blow up this time. So in this ...
by rascott
Tue May 19, 2020 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63120

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Where are all the people that sold in March because this time was different and we were heading for the biggest crash of all time? I don't recall lots of people saying in March that we were heading for the biggest crash of all time. There were loads. There were more than a few who went all to cash ...
by rascott
Mon May 18, 2020 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?
Replies: 211
Views: 20907

Re: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?

Considering SP500 is only down roughly 10% for the year..... not exactly been a difficult road.
by rascott
Mon May 18, 2020 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1484
Views: 120527

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Anyway - are all you guys rejoicing today?! VIOV up 5.8%, VBR up 6.5% as of now. Definitely. If I told you when I sold small-cap value and when I bought back small-cap value, then you wouldn't believe me. I've been thinking for a while that swing trading SCV in this environment is fairly doable. Th...
by rascott
Mon May 18, 2020 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1484
Views: 120527

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Anyway - are all you guys rejoicing today?! VIOV up 5.8%, VBR up 6.5% as of now. Definitely. If I told you when I sold small-cap value and when I bought back small-cap value, then you wouldn't believe me. I've been thinking for a while that swing trading SCV in this environment is fairly doable.
by rascott
Mon May 18, 2020 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall Street says stocks are very overvalued
Replies: 45
Views: 3865

Re: Wall Street says stocks are very overvalued

There is no definition for "overvalued ".... it's entirely a personal metric.
by rascott
Mon May 18, 2020 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5720
Views: 488318

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Still stuck in a trading range...IMO.
by rascott
Fri May 15, 2020 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International market recovery
Replies: 146
Views: 9400

Re: International market recovery

Great post! People plowing money into Japanese equity markets is possibly the definition of an blind fool. Their central bank has been propping those prices up for 8 years and running....as no real investor wants them. It's quants gone wild.... look at what you are buying and quit just saying it's ...
by rascott
Fri May 15, 2020 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International market recovery
Replies: 146
Views: 9400

Re: International market recovery

Great post! People plowing money into Japanese equity markets is possibly the definition of an blind fool. Their central bank has been propping those prices up for 8 years and running....as no real investor wants them. It's quants gone wild.... look at what you are buying and quit just saying it's ...
by rascott
Fri May 15, 2020 12:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International market recovery
Replies: 146
Views: 9400

Re: International market recovery

A few words of investing advice on this particular topic, inspired by Jack Bogle: Here's Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Like Investing In Foreign Markets Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle on Mutual Funds, Common Sense Investing and the Stock Market Jack Bogle on Market Index Funds (2014) Bogle: Why I Don't Inves...
by rascott
Thu May 14, 2020 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International market recovery
Replies: 146
Views: 9400

Re: International market recovery

If you read Vanguard`s annual economic report you'll see they expect international to outperform U. S. over the next 10 years. I don't know if they will be right or wrong but they certainly seem more educated than the 100% U. S. crowd who seem to be operating on folk wisdom rather than data. I'd en...
by rascott
Thu May 14, 2020 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If “cost” is the #1 reason Active managers lose, why not use Vanguard’s low-cost active funds?
Replies: 61
Views: 3713

Re: If “cost” is the #1 reason Active managers lose, why not use Vanguard’s low-cost active funds?

Even the highly regarded Wellington fund has failed to beat the "dumb" 65/35 2 funder over the last decade. Most likely due the small value factor loading of Wellington. It's large value loaded, not at all small value. Bad wording.....meant the "limited" value factor loading. It's value, but fairly...