Search found 496 matches

by rascott
Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 519
Views: 19689

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I look at the strategy today as a leveraged momentum strategy with insurance.

Momentum investing is an interesting phenomenon that I'm ok riding on.
by rascott
Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11839
Views: 2025205

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

S&P 600 is not only in a bear market but 2018 was the worst historical performance of the S&P 600 since it's inception outside of a recessionary period, 2019 is chalking up to be it's second worst performance on historical record, if this rate of decline continues it could end up being the worst in...
by rascott
Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cash out Refi - Influence on Capital gains?
Replies: 8
Views: 548

Re: Cash out Refi - Influence on Capital gains?

A refi itself has no impact whatsoever on your cost basis. However you likely will fall back to a $250k cap gains exclusion.... going forward as a single filer (rather than $500k married). If/when you ever end up selling the home. Probably need to talk with a tax pro to make sure. None of that has t...
by rascott
Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 519
Views: 19689

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Will this strategy work when USA enters the world of negative interest rates? I have a feeling it will happen within our lifetime and that's uncharted territory. The negative correlation between stocks and bonds is a recent phenomenon so I'm not sure it will hold in such a new scenario. Does negati...
by rascott
Thu Aug 22, 2019 10:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Prepare for Recession?
Replies: 53
Views: 5638

Re: Prepare for Recession?

There has been a lot of talk recently about the upcoming recession. The rumor is that a recession is coming in the next 12 months. So do we need to do anything to prepare for it? All I can think of is to stack up emergency funds because if we lose jobs, it will be difficult to find a new one. Anybo...
by rascott
Thu Aug 22, 2019 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]
Replies: 410
Views: 15586

Re: Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap

IFA data prior to when actual fund returns did not exist is unreliable at best and made up at worst. There were discussions on this forum that can be found with a search. In any case, back tested data is unreliable whether made by academicians for theory or fund companies with special interests. I'...
by rascott
Thu Aug 22, 2019 10:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 401k Rollover disaster
Replies: 31
Views: 2091

Re: 401k Rollover disaster

Welcome to the Board! Glad that you're posting here. It looks like you rolled from your 401(k) to an IRA. Is that correct? If so, you should take charge of your financial assets. I expect that you're paying fees to your "slick financial advisor" - maybe 1% per year, maybe more. Move the assets to V...
by rascott
Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: White collars- How much is your work downtime?
Replies: 158
Views: 10709

Re: White collars- How much is your work downtime?

Accountant here. I estimate my work downtime by about 50-60%. It has been like that through my whole career (a lot of employers - 19 years so far) with few exceptions/days. Is that normal? Or should I keep looking till I find an employer who can utilize more of my time? When I worked in financial r...
by rascott
Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: White collars- How much is your work downtime?
Replies: 158
Views: 10709

Re: White collars- How much is your work downtime?

Texanbybirth wrote:
Wed Aug 21, 2019 10:35 am
This thread is incredible. It's like my "oh, you too?!" moment. :beer

I would ask for a little bit of clarity on the OP's definition of "downtime", though I'm guessing the colloquial definition is good enough.

Defined as time browsing on BHs :D
by rascott
Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 519
Views: 19689

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Leveraged Investment Warning (August 2019 reminder) The effect of a total loss of invested money is a tragic situation. In conclusion, a sensible investment program should not include leveraged investment products . What a stunning non sequitur. I will not respond further. I will take reader feedba...
by rascott
Wed Aug 21, 2019 10:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Past Performance
Replies: 74
Views: 3752

Re: Past Performance

And small cap value was not a "new" thing 10 years ago. I learned about small and value factors 20+ years ago....the research came out in the early 90s. Honest question, when did most people learn about factors? Do we have any data about fund inflows for small-cap value funds? I have no idea...I ju...
by rascott
Wed Aug 21, 2019 10:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young
Replies: 433
Views: 28326

Re: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young

Decided I felt comfortable enough to implement some borrowing with derivatives. For various reasons, I came to the conclusion that options were far superior than futures in my circumstances. Perhaps this thread can be a good resource for others that want to attempt something similar. I bought 2 Dec...
by rascott
Wed Aug 21, 2019 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Past Performance
Replies: 74
Views: 3752

Re: Past Performance

And small cap value was not a "new" thing 10 years ago. I learned about small and value factors 20+ years ago....the research came out in the early 90s. Honest question, when did most people learn about factors? Do we have any data about fund inflows for small-cap value funds? I have no idea...I ju...
by rascott
Mon Aug 19, 2019 9:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: P2P lending as a part of port folio
Replies: 15
Views: 813

Re: P2P lending as a part of port folio

If you must, look into a solid corporate hi yield bond fund (such as Vanguards) as an alternative. :thumbsup I would certainly prefer junk bonds to P2P notes right now. I'd much prefer junk to P2P loans. People are making 4-5% on these things? In a great economy? Any downturn and that's money flush...
by rascott
Mon Aug 19, 2019 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me think through demographic trends change my savings rate and life long investment in human capital
Replies: 52
Views: 2427

Re: Help me think through demographic trends change my savings rate and life long investment in human capital

This has been by far my largest long-range macro economic concern. I feel it's already begun seriously impacting Europe/Japan.... which haven't seen any decent economic growth for a very long while. And have no prospects of any soon. The US isn't to this point...yet....but only a matter of time. I h...
by rascott
Mon Aug 19, 2019 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 519
Views: 19689

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

If we having a discussion that moves away from risk parity, and just trying to find a better way to hold equities.....how about this? https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/test-market-timing-model?s=y&coreSatellite=false&timingModel=5&startYear=1985&endYear=2019&initialAmount=10000&periodicAdjustment...
by rascott
Mon Aug 19, 2019 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 519
Views: 19689

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

You still haven't addressed the largest risk. Execution risk. There is absolutely no guarantee the future will look like the past. With such a small difference in CAGR, you are far more likely to do much worse than any better or even hit the strategy's targets. One could say that about any investme...
by rascott
Mon Aug 19, 2019 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 519
Views: 19689

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

If you can't stomach the volatility, don't use the leveraged funds. You pay for trades in one way or another. As we've discovered, using M1 means you can't use a limit order. I'm just saying that for such a small relative benefit, it doesn't seem worthwhile. I have 100 free trades a month at my bro...
by rascott
Mon Aug 19, 2019 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 519
Views: 19689

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I see what you're trying to do here, but even PV shows such a strategy has only a .25% (25 basis points) CAGR improvement over B&H of the 75% SP500 25% UPRO. So, by that definition, it really isn't showing much improvement. And given the 44 trades required, that's ~ $440 in trading fees which doesn...
by rascott
Mon Aug 19, 2019 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 519
Views: 19689

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

If we having a discussion that moves away from risk parity, and just trying to find a better way to hold equities.....how about this? https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/test-market-timing-model?s=y&coreSatellite=false&timingModel=5&startYear=1985&endYear=2019&initialAmount=10000&periodicAdjustment...
by rascott
Mon Aug 19, 2019 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 519
Views: 19689

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

If we having a discussion that moves away from risk parity, and just trying to find a better way to hold equities.....how about this? https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/test-market-timing-model?s=y&coreSatellite=false&timingModel=5&startYear=1985&endYear=2019&initialAmount=10000&periodicAdjustment...
by rascott
Mon Aug 19, 2019 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 519
Views: 19689

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

If we having a discussion that moves away from risk parity, and just trying to find a better way to hold equities.....how about this? https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/test-market-timing-model?s=y&coreSatellite=false&timingModel=5&startYear=1985&endYear=2019&initialAmount=10000&periodicAdjustment...
by rascott
Mon Aug 19, 2019 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 519
Views: 19689

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

The first idea would be the only one I would ever consider using. And would be looking at going from 100% VOO to 75/25 VOO/UPRO. Again, not sure why we are only supposed to look at bull market periods when assessing combing timing strategies and leverage.....but even in doing so....the timing strat...
by rascott
Mon Aug 19, 2019 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 519
Views: 19689

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Well, I was not talking about just a regular 200 day SMA strategy. That is always bound to underpeform (but at a lower volatility). I'm discussing incorporating a timing strategy with the use of the LETFs. Leverage on during up trends, no leverage during down trends. So moving from 100-150% equity ...
by rascott
Mon Aug 19, 2019 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 519
Views: 19689

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Well, I was not talking about just a regular 200 day SMA strategy. That is always bound to underpeform (but at a lower volatility). I'm discussing incorporating a timing strategy with the use of the LETFs. Leverage on during up trends, no leverage during down trends. So moving from 100-150% equity ...
by rascott
Mon Aug 19, 2019 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 519
Views: 19689

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

If we having a discussion that moves away from risk parity, and just trying to find a better way to hold equities.....how about this? This is basically going to 150% equity position when the SP500 is trading above it's 200 day SMA....and back to 100% equities when it is trading below it. One would ...
by rascott
Mon Aug 19, 2019 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]
Replies: 410
Views: 15586

Re: Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap

In a recent post at Advisor Perspectives, Larry notes that SCV has underperformed the S&P 500 over the last decade and longer. -- My investment strategy allows me to be ambivalent about factor investing, but I am curious to hear what others think of this. willthrill81: No one knows which stock cate...
by rascott
Mon Aug 19, 2019 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Past Performance
Replies: 74
Views: 3752

Re: Past Performance

So the real point of this thread is what? Don't chase recent performance? So that would imply not putting all your money in the TSMI? That's what the Moringstar link shows! If one slices and dices they are going to have periods where they will outperform and underperform the TSM....that's just prett...
by rascott
Mon Aug 19, 2019 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 519
Views: 19689

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

If we having a discussion that moves away from risk parity, and just trying to find a better way to hold equities.....how about this? https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/test-market-timing-model?s=y&coreSatellite=false&timingModel=5&startYear=1985&endYear=2019&initialAmount=10000&periodicAdjustment=...
by rascott
Mon Aug 19, 2019 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]
Replies: 410
Views: 15586

Re: Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap

Getting back to the topic of the OP..... SCV currently being below historical PE while the rest of the market is near its historical PE certainly means that today they are cheaper relative to history. It's worth noting the whole premise of the thread is dependent on which "earnings" measure you use...
by rascott
Mon Aug 19, 2019 7:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Interest rates low: leverage up?
Replies: 63
Views: 4472

Re: Interest rates low: leverage up?

I'm not opposed to leverage....the ideal leverage on the SP500 is probably around 1.5x for the long term. If you actually could manage to hold that for 30+ years you would most very likely end up with a lot more money. However it would be a wild ride and there is the tail risk of a Great Depression...
by rascott
Mon Aug 19, 2019 7:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Merrill Edge ETFs
Replies: 6
Views: 546

Re: Merrill Edge ETFs

Just switched from VG to ME to take advantage of some bonuses. VITAX holding could not be acat’d over, had to liquidate it. I am having a hard time understanding ME pricing for MFs. I liked the VG formula - no cost to trade / no loads on their own funds. Does ME have their own products that fit the...
by rascott
Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Interest rates low: leverage up?
Replies: 63
Views: 4472

Re: Interest rates low: leverage up?

I'm not opposed to leverage....the ideal leverage on the SP500 is probably around 1.5x for the long term. If you actually could manage to hold that for 30+ years you would most very likely end up with a lot more money. However it would be a wild ride and there is the tail risk of a Great Depression ...
by rascott
Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Interest rates low: leverage up?
Replies: 63
Views: 4472

Re: Interest rates low: leverage up?

Interest rates are very low. That makes bonds less attractive to buy (although the ones I've held for a while have obviously made me a ton of money). It also makes it cheaper to borrow money to buy stocks. I have around 30 years until retirement, so am thinking of following market timer, hedgefundi...
by rascott
Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 519
Views: 19689

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

I hope that those of us employing this strategy are only risking a small portion of our assets. However, the other side of the coin is that even a 60/40 portfolio comes with risk. There's also the risk of not having enough to retire. That's a risk whose medicine is to increase the savings rate, but...
by rascott
Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can having wealthy parents be a justification for a more aggressive investment strategy?
Replies: 97
Views: 7077

Re: Can having wealthy parents be a justification for a more aggressive investment strategy?

Plenty of us are 100% stocks, and older than you. I for one see no need for bonds personally until starting maybe a decade out from retirement. I'm in a similar situation to yours, but not nearly as a big a number as your parents. I don't count on anything, and try to pretend it's not there, but wou...
by rascott
Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 519
Views: 19689

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

I hope that those of us employing this strategy are only risking a small portion of our assets. However, the other side of the coin is that even a 60/40 portfolio comes with risk. There's also the risk of not having enough to retire. That's a risk whose medicine is to increase the savings rate, but...
by rascott
Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are you refinancing now?
Replies: 73
Views: 6744

Re: Are you refinancing now?

Why do people refi to a 30 year? You can always pay more principal but you can never pay less than the minimum amortized payment without putting your house at risk. So getting a 30-year if you could afford a 15- is a bit of an insurance policy. Maybe it's expensive insurance and it would be better ...
by rascott
Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: House purchase (cash)... wire transfer or cashier's check?
Replies: 32
Views: 2035

Re: House purchase (cash)... wire transfer or cashier's check?

Title companies won't take a cashier's check over $10k in my market...everything else must be wired. This isn't a concern. The title companies are very strict about sending the wire info separately. Then check to see if all the info matches up. If you want extra security, just call up your title com...
by rascott
Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are you refinancing now?
Replies: 73
Views: 6744

Re: Are you refinancing now?

MBS had not come close to keeping up with the rally of 10 year Treas. The market takes a while to adjust to quick moves and MBS traders don't think it will stick. If the 10 yr stays where it is, mortgage rates will drop further, eventually. If the 10 yr goes back up in yield, mortgage rates will sti...
by rascott
Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Selling House at Loss; Better to credit buyers or lower purchase price?
Replies: 11
Views: 1207

Re: Selling House at Loss; Better to credit buyers or lower purchase price?

A buyer is going to want the $25k closing credit (unless this is a cash offer). Otherwise it means more money out of their pocket to get to closing and get the defect fixed. You may have a give or take on your taxes due to the deprecation deduction you took for one year. But doubt it's much. Your ma...
by rascott
Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ready to Sell Investment Property - Considerations?
Replies: 4
Views: 463

Re: Ready to Sell Investment Property - Considerations?

I missing the actual question. If selling the home is the proper decision than everything else is kind of baked into the cake. Taxes, etc are going to be what they are. The only alternative option is a 1031 exchange if you can find another investment property you like. Ideally would be something aro...
by rascott
Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buy historic, walkable home or stay in blah subdivision with short commute?
Replies: 54
Views: 5378

Re: Buy historic, walkable home or stay in blah subdivision with short commute?

Lot size on each? Historic lot might be smaller - if yes, can you live with neighbors being closer? Noise, privacy issues there. Doesn't sound like you're moving far enough to expect a reduction in the crime you're currently experiencing - at least not for long. If the city isn't doing anything abo...
by rascott
Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cash out refinance vs HELOC
Replies: 12
Views: 929

Re: Cash out refinance vs HELOC

If the solar company will agree to a resubordination, that may be the best. This is a new term for me, so I had to look it up. Seems this applies if I already had a HELOC and am trying to refinance my mortgage, this will keep the HELOC second in line, is this correct? I don’t have HELOC currently, ...
by rascott
Mon Aug 12, 2019 9:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Update (Single large position in a single stock - Redfin)
Replies: 4
Views: 744

Re: Update (Single large position in a single stock - Redfin)

I debated if I was going to update this... I decided to go ahead. Here is the original post: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=239474 Quick recap: Two years ago, I began investing a large portion of our portfolio in a single stock (Redfin). I have since accumulated 25,052 shares ...
by rascott
Mon Aug 12, 2019 9:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cash out refinance vs HELOC
Replies: 12
Views: 929

Re: Cash out refinance vs HELOC

Yeah it's possible.... if you got the HELOC how fast would you pay it off? Another way to look at it is to get the HELOC and pay it off via your savings, and you'd still have access to that liquidity if needed. How much is the mortgage balance? If the solar company will agree to a resubordination, t...
by rascott
Mon Aug 12, 2019 9:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cash out refinance vs HELOC
Replies: 12
Views: 929

Re: Cash out refinance vs HELOC

Duplicate
by rascott
Mon Aug 12, 2019 8:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: for those of you who sold a home...
Replies: 28
Views: 4412

Re: for those of you who sold a home...

I have a friend who is selling his rowhome to move into an apt instead. it's a distressed property (more than a fixer upper). He called a realtor today and has an appt on Friday (sorry for the short notice). There is a mortgage with around $33,000 left on the property. It is assessed for $120,000 (...
by rascott
Mon Aug 12, 2019 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young
Replies: 433
Views: 28326

Re: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young

$190 call option for Sept 2020 is about $97, as of today. How many of these are issued? It's showing a volume of 1 at Yahoo Finance. I would use a strike price that had a lot more open interest.... looks like the 180 strike would be more liquid. Further down in strike price you go, the lower your l...