Search found 58 matches

by xenogear3
Sun Aug 24, 2008 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Market itself Broken?
Replies: 32
Views: 5618

[personal attack removed by admin alex]
by xenogear3
Sun Aug 17, 2008 4:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTINX - All eggs in one basket?
Replies: 43
Views: 16579

I let the Financial Advisors go at the end of July.
Congratulations! You just reduced GDP by $14000.

If this continues, US will go to recession and US dollar will fall.

This leads to high inflation which will hurt your savings.
by xenogear3
Sat Aug 16, 2008 7:00 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why is oil down 25% in a few weeks?
Replies: 24
Views: 5251

The dollar is NOT going up in value, the other major currencies are going down!
That is a good one.

First the dollar drops by 50%. Now all other major currencies, gold and oil will go down 50%. End of the world?
by xenogear3
Sat Aug 16, 2008 6:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fuller Meaning of Sm/Val Tilt?
Replies: 12
Views: 2627

It is small value, not small and value.

However in a bear market, small value stocks usually drop a lot more than S&P 500.
by xenogear3
Tue Aug 12, 2008 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax on Index Fund
Replies: 1
Views: 691

Tax on Index Fund

When investors dumps their mutual fund shares, Vanguard naturally has to sell shares.

If it is an index fund, will I get a big capital gain tax bill?
by xenogear3
Tue Aug 12, 2008 9:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How did you build your net worth?
Replies: 102
Views: 24828

Invest heavily in lottery.

Although I have not hit a jackpot, the odds have increased a lot after 30 years of investing.

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by xenogear3
Sun Aug 10, 2008 9:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How did you build your net worth?
Replies: 102
Views: 24828

I was surprised that not many people say "inherited".

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by xenogear3
Sat Aug 09, 2008 10:00 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If you retired at 41 what would be your asset allocation?
Replies: 29
Views: 6024

I will be 100% in stock. If up 100%, sell half to maintain the original stock value. If down 20%, go back to work while you are still young.

It is far better than 50/50. You could run out of money at later age.
by xenogear3
Sat Aug 09, 2008 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Bulk Share Selling: Housekeeping or Need for Liqu
Replies: 3
Views: 1359

The market dropped 20%, so the small investors are panic and selling.

Of course, this will cause the market to go lower, so more panic and more selling.
by xenogear3
Fri Aug 08, 2008 8:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why not foreign currency CDs?
Replies: 21
Views: 4326

US stock market was bad in the last 8 years. This creates lots of performance chase into other assets.

Some laughable ones are "negative interest rate TIPS", "banana republic currency" and "1 million dollar for a 300 sq ft house in CA".
by xenogear3
Fri Aug 08, 2008 9:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Company Stock Question
Replies: 4
Views: 914

The people here will tell you to sell everything.

However, you could miss the next Microsoft.
by xenogear3
Fri Aug 08, 2008 8:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Safe % of company stock (ESPP) in portfolio?
Replies: 37
Views: 6868

Look at what happens if you buy S&P 500 index fund in 2000. You will be down a little bit 8 years later. That is what you get for buying an unknown company. If you bought your own company stock and worked hard, you can really make a difference. You can monitor your co-workers and make sure they do a...
by xenogear3
Thu Aug 07, 2008 9:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Safe % of company stock (ESPP) in portfolio?
Replies: 37
Views: 6868

There are two huge advantages to have its own company stock. 1. The cost is low (0%) by holding a single stock. Even the cheapest mutual fund charges people 0.1% every year. After 30 years, that is a lot money. 2. Your hard working at the company will not just benefit the CEO. It will benefit yourse...
by xenogear3
Thu Aug 07, 2008 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremy Grantham predictions:
Replies: 130
Views: 22296

many are unwilling to even consider the views of those such as Grantham or Shiller who are very cautious about market prospects. The problem is that his view is vague. For example, "He is also bullish on emerging markets but feels that they are in bubble mode and will pop at some point in the unfor...
by xenogear3
Thu Aug 07, 2008 4:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremy Grantham predictions:
Replies: 130
Views: 22296

US high quality +5.5% US low quality -3.6% This must be a joke. Here is my prediction for the next 5 years. US "good" stock +100% US "bad" stock -30% International "fast growing" country +120% International "slow growing" country -40% The outlook is good, just make sure to buy the "good" and "fast ...
by xenogear3
Wed Aug 06, 2008 10:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Stuck in a lucrative, yet unfufilling career
Replies: 42
Views: 10170

Another "I hate my job" topic.

Turn on your TV around midnight, you will see lots of "get rich quick" Ads.
Why don't try some of them?
by xenogear3
Wed Aug 06, 2008 8:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Synthetic Guaranteed Investment Contract (GIC) ???
Replies: 8
Views: 3026

He is right. I work for CAT.

He must followed me when I go to work.
Internet is a dangerous place.
by xenogear3
Wed Aug 06, 2008 7:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Synthetic Guaranteed Investment Contract (GIC) ???
Replies: 8
Views: 3026

Synthetic Guaranteed Investment Contract (GIC) ???

My 401k has a Stable Value fund. The return is not bad compare to the money market fund. 6% last year. 3% YTD. However, I am worry it is not safe. It holds 100% Synthetic Guaranteed Investment Contract (GIC). A synthetic GIC is a contract that simulates the performance of a traditional GIC through t...
by xenogear3
Tue Aug 05, 2008 11:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Safe % of company stock (ESPP) in portfolio?
Replies: 37
Views: 6868

This is more free money, but with a hitch. You will not be allowed to sell the stock for a year or more.

a year or more? In other words, he doesn't know what he is talking about.
by xenogear3
Tue Aug 05, 2008 8:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Safe % of company stock (ESPP) in portfolio?
Replies: 37
Views: 6868

The discount from FMV is never converted to capital gains.

I agree. I read my company's rule many time. I don't see the advantage to hold 2 years.

I plan to sell the day I got it.
by xenogear3
Tue Aug 05, 2008 9:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Safe % of company stock (ESPP) in portfolio?
Replies: 37
Views: 6868

This is another investing myth.

The general advise is that "Never hold your own company's stock." The reason is that you could lose both jobs and savings if the company suddenly goes bankrupt.

However if you worked at Microsoft or Dell in the early 90s and you hold its stock, you can retire early.
by xenogear3
Mon Aug 04, 2008 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FDIC should insure all bank deposits without limit?
Replies: 21
Views: 4014

Bad idea.

It costs money to increase the limit. That costs will come from an average people who only has $100 in the bank.
by xenogear3
Sun Aug 03, 2008 4:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is this a good time to lump sum into intl?
Replies: 25
Views: 4830

How much money are you talking about? You said "last part", so it must be small (10%). When a "safe" stock such as FANNIE MAE drops from $80 to $10, I believe the problems on the US side are getting closer to the bottom. However, we can still get a worldwide recession which will bring the US stock m...
by xenogear3
Sat Aug 02, 2008 10:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Could you survive on Social Security?
Replies: 24
Views: 5726

the average monthly check for retirees is $1084 per month. For spouses it is $533 a month.

For a family (a husband and a wife), you get $2000 per month. I can easily live with that.

The problem is that after one dies, does the benefit get reduced?
by xenogear3
Fri Aug 01, 2008 8:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Dark Side of Trolling
Replies: 5
Views: 2600

Are you trolling by posting a trolling topic?

The biggest troll is the one who calls other people trolling?
by xenogear3
Fri Aug 01, 2008 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 6% Increase in Social Security Next Year
Replies: 40
Views: 10612

I have a job, get 3% pay increase.
My friends are on welfare, get 6% pay increase.

Why do I still work?
by xenogear3
Fri Aug 01, 2008 4:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage: Refinance or sell and cut losses?
Replies: 22
Views: 4326

The main reason for this house bubble is the "no money down". 3 years ago, if the bank wanted you to put 20% down ($70k), you will think twice to buy this house. Because if the house price drops, you will lose 70k. If "no money down" and price drops, you lose nothing except the monthly payment. If p...
by xenogear3
Thu Jul 31, 2008 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Loopholes to the yearly Roth IRA contribution limit?
Replies: 16
Views: 4222

This outta be an interesting first experience working for a small company...

I worked at a big company for 9 years.

I heard lots of great things about working for a small company, so I switched to a small company.

I regret the first day !!![/i]
by xenogear3
Thu Jul 31, 2008 10:14 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cramer: The bottom's in!
Replies: 8
Views: 3312

After I read his comment, I just sold some of my stock this morning.
No kidding.

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by xenogear3
Wed Jul 30, 2008 11:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Nationwide as a 401K plan administrator?
Replies: 17
Views: 9563

I guess it is different for different companies. You have to put some money in first. Then you will get online access. On its website, it will tell you more. I don't get all Janus and Neuberger funds. I only get 2 Janus and 2 Neuberger funds. All funds charge at least 0.5%. However some funds are re...
by xenogear3
Wed Jul 30, 2008 10:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Invest now or wait - that is the question
Replies: 33
Views: 6767

You slowly invest money in at a higher and higher price. Then all the sudden you lost 20%.

Psychologically, that is just as bad as "all in and lose 20%".
by xenogear3
Wed Jul 30, 2008 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burned by putting DLS in tax advantaged account?
Replies: 8
Views: 2142

Revenue (ttm): -409.72M LOL. I don't know how a company can have a negative revenue. That is what you get for getting stock tips from an internet message board. --------------------------- If I can use 401k money to buy lottery tickets, I will! Tax Free Jackpot! Seriously, you never paid tax on thes...
by xenogear3
Wed Jul 30, 2008 9:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Invest now or wait - that is the question
Replies: 33
Views: 6767

I never understand the "DCA over a small period" (less than 3 years).

For example, you have 360k in 2005. If you put all in in 2005, you are up a little bit right now.

If you decide to DCA 10k every month for 36 months, the stock you bought in 2006 and 2007 are down at least 10% by now.
by xenogear3
Wed Jul 30, 2008 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2008: Non-itemizers can now deduct property taxes
Replies: 90
Views: 15549

I don't own a house.

However, my landlord charges me tax on the apartment I rent. May I use this deductiable?
by xenogear3
Wed Jul 30, 2008 8:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Nationwide as a 401K plan administrator?
Replies: 17
Views: 9563

I used to have nationwide.

Do they offer you Janus Twenty and Neuberger Berman Genesis Tr (NBGEX)?
Get these two funds.

my account will be charged an assest management fee of 1.9% a year in addition to the expense ratio

Are you sure about this? That is crazy.
by xenogear3
Wed Jul 30, 2008 8:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much are indexers exposed to commodities?
Replies: 53
Views: 8735

FOREX, Commodities and Lottery are zero sum game.

This doesn't mean that you cannot make money from it. If you know the Lottery's winning number for next week, your 10000000000% return will beat Warren Buffett's laughable 20% per year return.
by xenogear3
Wed Jul 30, 2008 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DOW 9000 or 14000, which one we will see next?
Replies: 29
Views: 5687

The big question is now are we in the beginning stages of a 4th Secular Bear Market which started in 2000. The average length of the previous 3 Secular Bear Markets was 18 years with a minimum of 16 years and a maximum of 21 years. The stock price is determined by "profits", "inflation" and "state ...
by xenogear3
Tue Jul 29, 2008 5:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DOW 9000 or 14000, which one we will see next?
Replies: 29
Views: 5687

DOW 9000 or 14000, which one we will see next?

Will we see 9000 first or 14000 first?
by xenogear3
Tue Jul 29, 2008 5:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did Templeton beat the index?
Replies: 11
Views: 3123

If you bought DELL (stock of course, not the computer), you beat everything !!!

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by xenogear3
Mon Jul 28, 2008 10:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much are indexers exposed to commodities?
Replies: 53
Views: 8735

Common stock returns ALWAYS surpass commodity returns.

This is the reason which I believe that DOW will go to 8000.

Check the gold and stock return from 1970 to 1980.
When the inflation reaches 10% and stays there, the stock will drop 50% easily.


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by xenogear3
Mon Jul 28, 2008 9:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much are indexers exposed to commodities?
Replies: 53
Views: 8735

commodities-related stocks and commodity are two different things.

For example, you buy oil future at $50 and oil price goes up to $100. You make 100% gain.

The stock for the oil companies will not double. The gain will be much less.
by xenogear3
Mon Jul 28, 2008 8:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is it different this time?
Replies: 29
Views: 6254

Real Estate and Auto (car) are 2 biggest economy sectors.
Plus banks and airlines are in big trouble.

I bet "this time is different".
by xenogear3
Mon Jul 28, 2008 7:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much are indexers exposed to commodities?
Replies: 53
Views: 8735

0%, and I am not joking.

Stock is calculated based on the profit of the company, not the current asset value.

Both Stock and Bond are weak against high inflation.

Gold and Real Estate can keep up with the inflation, but they have no real gain.
by xenogear3
Fri Jul 25, 2008 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if the market crashes???
Replies: 43
Views: 9205

Question 2: If I buy a house, what happens if the price drops 10% next year? Question 3: If I buy a 5 year CD, what happens if the interest rate goes up next month? Question 4: If I put money in a shoe box, what happens if the inflation goes up 10% next year? One Solution: Use 25% of your money to b...
by xenogear3
Mon Jul 21, 2008 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cramer ranting against buy-and-hold
Replies: 22
Views: 7743

47% Domestic stocks (21% large cap, 23% mid/small cap and 3% micro cap). 47% bonds: (5-year U.S. treasuries) 06% cash: (30-day T-bills) If you bought at the peak of the stock market in September 1929, by the end of February 1937, you would have enjoyed a 38% gain. If you bought at the bottom in 193...
by xenogear3
Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cramer ranting against buy-and-hold
Replies: 22
Views: 7743

Historically data show "Buy & Hold" is a great idea. If you bought in 1932 and 1981, hold is the best thing to do. "rebalance" is for losers. However, in 2000, the stock market's valuation is at all time high (higher than 1929), so this time could be different. If you bought stock at peak in 1929, y...
by xenogear3
Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 in a Turbulent Environment
Replies: 10
Views: 2664

I always laugh hard when someone is telling people one asset (such as real estate, small value stock, gold or banana republic fund ) is "low risk and high return".

When it comes to investing, only one thing is certain, which is nothing is certain.
by xenogear3
Thu Jul 17, 2008 7:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Jim Rogers not happy
Replies: 23
Views: 6880

Jim made lots of money (33 times) from 1970 to 1980 by buying commodities. I suspected that he didn't make any money from 1980 to 2000 because he hates stock market. He is back now and telling everyone about inflation and commodities. I will not listen to everything he says. He is very biased agains...
by xenogear3
Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Protective Puts as insurance?
Replies: 11
Views: 2170

Puts are not cheap. It costs 3% for 1 month of duration.

If you car costs $20k, will you pay $600 every month for the insurance? (That is $7200 a year)
by xenogear3
Tue Jul 15, 2008 8:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Official Doom and Gloom Thread. Post all D&G msgs here
Replies: 117
Views: 23940

The turnover in the financial markets last year ran 280%. That means stocks traded, you know, three times -- almost three times -- the amount of stock outstanding. The closest we ever came to that before was in 1929, when it was about 140%. This is wrong. In 1929, it costs hundreds of dollars to ma...