Search found 3954 matches

by jalbert
Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Kid schooling - not learning much academically. Looking for suggestions.
Replies: 103
Views: 4440

Re: Kid schooling - not learning much academically. Looking for suggestions.

If you teach your child material 1-2 grades ahead of their grade level wouldn’t the expected outcome be that they are doing topics in school at a lower level than what you are teaching them at home? Instead of trying to accelerate the scheduled academic curriculum at home, maybe augment it with thin...
by jalbert
Tue Dec 18, 2018 5:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Receiver for klipsch bookcase speakers
Replies: 49
Views: 2189

Re: Receiver for klipsch bookcase speakers

I was going to look at a very nice Pioneer 1980 receiver on Craigslist. However it is over 500$. Looking at prices for used gear, the price is actually a bargain. Is this a solid state item or are there tubes? Solid state and the SX-1980 was an excellent receiver but is 270 watts RMS per channel, w...
by jalbert
Tue Dec 18, 2018 2:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Receiver for klipsch bookcase speakers
Replies: 49
Views: 2189

Re: Receiver for klipsch bookcase speakers

I was going to look at a very nice Pioneer 1980 receiver on Craigslist. However it is over 500$. Looking at prices for used gear, the price is actually a bargain. Is this a solid state item or are there tubes? Solid state and the SX-1980 was an excellent receiver but is 270 watts RMS per channel, w...
by jalbert
Tue Dec 18, 2018 2:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Receiver for klipsch bookcase speakers
Replies: 49
Views: 2189

Re: Receiver for klipsch bookcase speakers

A stereo receiver will not work with this setup. It should work fine with all TV’s I’ve seen, which is admittedly a small sample. AppleTV or blue ray or whatever to TV over HDMI and stereo audio out from TV to stereo amp. Perhaps not all flat screen TV’s have analog audio out. Yes, this was the set...
by jalbert
Tue Dec 18, 2018 1:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Receiver for klipsch bookcase speakers
Replies: 49
Views: 2189

Re: Receiver for klipsch bookcase speakers

Tubes can be fairly sensitive to type of speaker— the sound rendition of the particular type of tube used and the frequency response of the speakers can be synergistic or antagonistic. Definitely try the speakers with the amp before purchase or be able to return the amp if it is not a good match. I ...
by jalbert
Tue Dec 18, 2018 2:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When cash is riskier than bonds
Replies: 56
Views: 5343

Re: When cash is riskier than bonds

There are two factors in play when inflation spikes: currency devaluation and rising interest rates. The currency devaluation is one driver of superior expected return of internationally diversified equities relative to domestic equities. But a rise in interest rates also raises the discount rate us...
by jalbert
Tue Dec 18, 2018 1:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Obamacare (ACA) Ruled Unconstitutional by Texas Federal Court
Replies: 187
Views: 13526

Re: Obamacare (ACA) Ruled Unconstitutional by Texas Federal Court

Why are we dealing with hypotheticals??? I thought that it is not allowed on this board. [OT comment removed by admin LadyGeek] The law still stands so there is no change. I am not sure why we are even discussing what ifs. We don't do this for pending tax legislation. Only if the law is struck down...
by jalbert
Mon Dec 17, 2018 7:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Receiver for klipsch bookcase speakers
Replies: 49
Views: 2189

Re: Receiver for klipsch bookcase speakers

A stereo receiver will not work with this setup.
It should work fine with all TV’s I’ve seen, which is admittedly a small sample. AppleTV or blue ray or whatever to TV over HDMI and stereo audio out from TV to stereo amp. Perhaps not all flat screen TV’s have analog audio out.
by jalbert
Mon Dec 17, 2018 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When cash is riskier than bonds
Replies: 56
Views: 5343

Re: When cash is riskier than bonds

I think good argument could be made that since the launch of the Euro in 1999 that the value of stocks from European developed nations as protection from domestic inflation is greatly diminished. This is one of the reasons I feel comfortable emphasizing emerging markets and Asian stocks in the inte...
by jalbert
Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When cash is riskier than bonds
Replies: 56
Views: 5343

Re: When cash is riskier than bonds

The reasons behind the 70s inflation are well known. As a thought experiment, what events could precipitate a future situation, such that owning a large international stake would be important for mitigating high US inflation? And what countries would these returns come from? I am skeptical that we ...
by jalbert
Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Diversify Globally
Replies: 35
Views: 3201

Re: Larry Swedroe: Diversify Globally

The Vanguard developed markets index fund Vtmgx has about 81.5% of world ex-US market cap, higher than MSCI EAFE funds because of the inclusion of Canada and S Korea (and a small contribution from Poland now as well). It will take a large deviation of EM from DM either way to make an appreciable dif...
by jalbert
Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When cash is riskier than bonds
Replies: 56
Views: 5343

Re: When cash is riskier than bonds

believe you mean that the two events (i.e. increasing inflation and increasing stock prices) did not happen in lock-step. I never said that they did. But when I look at inflation and the real returns of U.S. stocks in the 1970s, overall, stocks seemed to hold up reasonably well From 1969 through 19...
by jalbert
Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When cash is riskier than bonds
Replies: 56
Views: 5343

Re: When cash is riskier than bonds

I still don't see where this inflation is going to come from.
Expected inflation is already priced into equities and bonds by the market. Unexpected inflation is the risk we should be concerned about.
by jalbert
Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Factor Tilts, Such As Small Value, Increase Idiosyncratic Risk?
Replies: 52
Views: 2228

Re: Do Factor Tilts, Such As Small Value, Increase Idiosyncratic Risk?

I do not think factor tilts increase idiosyncratic risk. Idiosyncratic risk generally is single stock risk. Most all the factor tilting discussed here is with cap weighted, passive/index funds that have hundreds or thousands of individual stocks. Single stock risk is effectively eliminated. Dave Se...
by jalbert
Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Receiver for klipsch bookcase speakers
Replies: 49
Views: 2189

Re: Receiver for klipsch bookcase speakers

The Onkyo TX-8020 would probably work well and has a typical price of about $150. The remote capability would be an advantage with a TV input.
by jalbert
Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Receiver for klipsch bookcase speakers
Replies: 49
Views: 2189

Re: Receiver for klipsch bookcase speakers

Most vintage receivers had average tuners. Some had very good tuners, but the best tuners were generally standalone. The Tuner Information Center has definitive info on vintage tuners and some receivers that had above-average tuners. A vintage tuner, amp, or receiver that has not been serviced begs ...
by jalbert
Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: House all of my bond contributions in 401K? Viability of 401K
Replies: 6
Views: 401

Re: House all of my bond contributions in 401K? Viability of 401K

Bonds in tax-deferred space is good. If you are holding ETFs in your taxable account, Fidelity is fine as a brokerage account, but Fidelity index mutual funds are less tax efficient than index ETFs or Vanguard index mutual funds tracking similar indices.
by jalbert
Sun Dec 16, 2018 11:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When cash is riskier than bonds
Replies: 56
Views: 5343

Re: When cash is riskier than bonds

Let's say that you bought $1,000 of U.S. stock and $1,000 of Canadian stock. Now the U.S. experiences 10% inflation, whereas Canada only experiences 1% inflation. All else being equal, the nominal price of the U.S. stock should rise to $1,100, while the Canadian is priced at $1,010 ( assuming a con...
by jalbert
Sun Dec 16, 2018 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When cash is riskier than bonds
Replies: 56
Views: 5343

Re: When cash is riskier than bonds

The fund TEPLX is the Templeton Growth fund which is internationally diversified. SPYZ is the S&P500 total return index: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=teplX®ion=usa&culture=en-US&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A11%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22showNav%22%3Atrue%2C%22defaultShow...
by jalbert
Sun Dec 16, 2018 9:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Receiver for klipsch bookcase speakers
Replies: 49
Views: 2189

Re: Receiver for klipsch bookcase speakers

My budget would be about $300. Used or new. I would like a tuner since the local classical station is excellent. How powerful is the station? If it is a public radio station with a fairly weak transmitter you may need a fairly good quality tuner to get noise-free reception. The tuner section of a $...
by jalbert
Sun Dec 16, 2018 9:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Obamacare (ACA) Ruled Unconstitutional by Texas Federal Court
Replies: 187
Views: 13526

Re: Obamacare (ACA) Ruled Unconstitutional by Texas Federal Court

I figure if this ruling is upheld (50/50 in my book), there is just a faint chance that some quirk might screw up the refundable credit model, and so that was enough to tip me over into the "bird in the hand" mindset of getting it up front. What happens to the future of ACA is unlikely to have no e...
by jalbert
Sun Dec 16, 2018 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When cash is riskier than bonds
Replies: 56
Views: 5343

Re: When cash is riskier than bonds

Note that CASHX was used as proxy for cash. It's quite likely that a rolling 5-year CD ladder, where each CD was carefully selected, would have provided higher returns than CASHX. A 5-year rolling CD ladder is not a zero duration portfolio. But my original point was that, while cash is less risky t...
by jalbert
Sun Dec 16, 2018 8:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Obamacare (ACA) Ruled Unconstitutional by Texas Federal Court
Replies: 187
Views: 13526

Re: Obamacare (ACA) Ruled Unconstitutional by Texas Federal Court

Not much has changed so far. Theoretically, ACA may be struck down. Before the recent election, there likely were outcomes of the election that could have led to ACA being eliminated by legislative action. It is unclear which had a bigger risk. But I think it is difficult to roll back social change,...
by jalbert
Sun Dec 16, 2018 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When cash is riskier than bonds
Replies: 56
Views: 5343

Re: When cash is riskier than bonds

Saving enough for retirement was way more important than the exact choice of intermediate-term bond fund in their balanced portfolio.
On average, holding all fixed-income as cash would be a significant detriment, which was my main point, also noted in the title of the thread.
by jalbert
Sun Dec 16, 2018 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My 401k has no bond index fund options
Replies: 15
Views: 1034

Re: My 401k has no bond index fund options

Given the bond fund choices, the target retirement fund and separate fund portfolio options have very similar costs, so that should not be the motivation for choosing which to use. The stock index fund options are not well coordinated— the mid cap and small cap US index funds track CRSP indices and ...
by jalbert
Sun Dec 16, 2018 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When cash is riskier than bonds
Replies: 56
Views: 5343

Re: When cash is riskier than bonds

Actually the correct comparison is to match the durations of the two bond funds, which neither index fund likely does actually. VBIIX consistently has had a duration about a year longer than VFITX, enhancing expected return. But even with the duration one year longer for the intermediate index fund,...
by jalbert
Sun Dec 16, 2018 5:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Receiver for klipsch bookcase speakers
Replies: 49
Views: 2189

Re: Receiver for klipsch bookcase speakers

Yes. The Apple TV, phone and small klipsch speakers will be the limiting factors of audio quality if any reasonable audio amp is selected. I doubt Bluetooth will compress the sound anywhere near as much as the speakers will.
by jalbert
Sun Dec 16, 2018 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When cash is riskier than bonds
Replies: 56
Views: 5343

Re: When cash is riskier than bonds

The historical benefit of international equity diversification, particularly for ex-U.S. investors, is undeniable, but that's a separate issue from inflation protection. Why should they be unrelated or separate? Varying inflation rates and interest rates of different countries are the drivers of cu...
by jalbert
Sun Dec 16, 2018 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When cash is riskier than bonds
Replies: 56
Views: 5343

Re: When cash is riskier than bonds

I don't believe that I've ever heard anyone say that they held ex-U.S. equities to help protect from U.S. inflation. Research on sustainable withdrawal found that simulated US-only portfolios consisting of US stocks and nominal treasuries were more challenged by the inflation of the 1970’s than by ...
by jalbert
Sun Dec 16, 2018 1:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Receiver for klipsch bookcase speakers
Replies: 49
Views: 2189

Re: Receiver for klipsch bookcase speakers

I have a pair of bookcase speakers that I like. They are small which is important. The back of the speakers show the following. Klipsch Rb-25 Impedance 8 ohms Max input pwr 75 Watts What are the specs I need in a stereo receiver.? Need help. I just want a nice **simple** receiver. Sound source: iPh...
by jalbert
Sun Dec 16, 2018 1:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When cash is riskier than bonds
Replies: 56
Views: 5343

Re: When cash is riskier than bonds

Diversification of equities with non-US equities would have offered substantially more protection in the late 70’s for a US investor than substituting cash for intermediate bonds, but few US investors would have considered or known how to do so. Inflation protection is the only reason I allocate to ...
by jalbert
Sun Dec 16, 2018 12:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Obamacare (ACA) Ruled Unconstitutional by Texas Federal Court
Replies: 187
Views: 13526

Re: Obamacare (ACA) Ruled Unconstitutional by Texas Federal Court

Imagine the size of the pool (and the prices going down due to competition) if groups like the AARP and the NRA could offer group health insurance to its members. There could be a Bogleheads group plan! While I haven't read into AHP's recently when I did it was still 'employee' driven as far as it ...
by jalbert
Sat Dec 15, 2018 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When cash is riskier than bonds
Replies: 56
Views: 5343

Re: When cash is riskier than bonds

Even over the period you analyzed, 1993-current, cash obviously had a max. drawdown of zero, short-term Treasuries had a maximum of -2.23%, and long-term Treasuries had a maximum of -16.68%. Portfolio drawdown is what investors should care about, not drawdowns of individual asset classes, and I did...
by jalbert
Sat Dec 15, 2018 8:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Obamacare (ACA) Ruled Unconstitutional by Texas Federal Court
Replies: 187
Views: 13526

Re: Obamacare (ACA) Ruled Unconstitutional by Texas Federal Court

An opinion of a U of Michigan law professor is that this opinion of 1 judge in Wichita, TX has a very low chance of holding up. It seems that the most likely outcome may be to strike down the individual mandate for which the penalty was removed anyway. Perhaps an appeals court will change the remed...
by jalbert
Sat Dec 15, 2018 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why I use Roth for bond instead of stock. Please correct me...
Replies: 54
Views: 4294

Re: Why I use Roth for bond instead of stock. Please correct me...

I was not trying to suggest that bonds should go in taxable (I think the title of the article is poor...), but rather to highlight that stock goes in Roth! I personally believe bonds should go in tax-deferred accounts. I think you're reading too far into the article as well. Read it, sit back, and ...
by jalbert
Sat Dec 15, 2018 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When cash is riskier than bonds
Replies: 56
Views: 5343

When cash is riskier than bonds

A basic principle of investing is that a risky investment should have a higher average return than a risk-free investment. The market will demand it when establishing a fair price. Thus, investors are compensated for taking interest rate risk by holding nominal bonds with additional yield. With the ...
by jalbert
Sat Dec 15, 2018 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction
Replies: 101
Views: 6081

Re: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction

A long-term treasury does not match the liability of a mortgage. Suppose interest rates rise a percentage point and then you sell the house to move to another state with 20 years left to pay on a mortgage. The value of a 20-year treasury will have fallen significantly, but you pay off the mortgage b...
by jalbert
Sat Dec 15, 2018 4:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Real experiences of someone who did not have Medigap policy?
Replies: 21
Views: 2193

Re: Real experiences of someone who did not have Medigap policy?

A major issue with self-coverage for expenses that would be covered by medigap policies is that there is no out-of-pocket maximum for the expenses. In addition to part A deductible and coinsurance mentioned above, which do have out-of-pocket limits, part B deductible and coinsurance are defined as: ...
by jalbert
Sat Dec 15, 2018 1:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction
Replies: 101
Views: 6081

Re: Total Bond Market's Diversification

willthrill81: I believe you are right and I have removed vineviz's name from my post. However, I worked hard to show Total Bond Market's great diversification so I will leave the post (minus "vineviz") for its important message. Thank you and best wishes. Taylor Which diversification was better ove...
by jalbert
Fri Dec 14, 2018 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the worst 30 year rolling return in history? Could 2000-2030 be worse?
Replies: 20
Views: 2659

Re: What is the worst 30 year rolling return in history? Could 2000-2030 be worse?

If you care about 30-year returns, at present, the 30 year period starting today is more important than the one starting in 2000. The problem is that estimating returns over the next 30 years (or days, weeks, months, etc.) requires a working crystal ball. Mine has been in the shop for quite a while...
by jalbert
Fri Dec 14, 2018 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the worst 30 year rolling return in history? Could 2000-2030 be worse?
Replies: 20
Views: 2659

Re: What is the worst 30 year rolling return in history? Could 2000-2030 be worse?

If you care about 30-year returns, at present, the 30 year period starting today is more important than the one starting in 2000.
by jalbert
Fri Dec 14, 2018 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction
Replies: 101
Views: 6081

Re: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction

I believe volatility drag is a real cost too, and a more efficient portfolio lessens this cost. I don't think I believe this. Higher volatility simply increases the difference between the arithmetic and geometric averages. Why should I care about that? Because we can only invest looking forward. We...
by jalbert
Fri Dec 14, 2018 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did VMFXX break the buck? [Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund]
Replies: 12
Views: 1412

Re: Did VMFXX break the buck?

The concept of numerical errors in a correctly specified/implemented computation is described here:

https://en.m.wikibooks.org/wiki/Numeric ... troduction
by jalbert
Fri Dec 14, 2018 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction
Replies: 101
Views: 6081

Re: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction

I believe volatility drag is a real cost too, and a more efficient portfolio lessens this cost. I don't think I believe this. Higher volatility simply increases the difference between the arithmetic and geometric averages. Why should I care about that? Correct. The notion of volatility drag is not ...
by jalbert
Fri Dec 14, 2018 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction
Replies: 101
Views: 6081

Re: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction

Even if this was true (and I don't think it is), given the other observations you made in your post I don't see how you'd go about proving it. True (or population) correlations aren't immutable: they surely reflect underlying macroeconomic, technological, and regulatory conditions among others. So ...
by jalbert
Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment advice for stocks?
Replies: 16
Views: 1364

Re: Investment advice for stocks?

What is your basis for trying to make int’l equities and a real estate fund be an either-or decision? If you are looking at performance over the last 10 years, be advised that there is no reason a winning streak of one asset class will continue. In fact, Vanguard recently released their economic out...
by jalbert
Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction
Replies: 101
Views: 6081

Re: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction

The main problem with correlations as used in the investment world most of the time is a confusion of correlation of future returns (which is correlation computed from the covariance of the joint probability distribution of future returns) with sample correlations, which are a sample statistic compu...
by jalbert
Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New 401k for the Spouse
Replies: 6
Views: 269

Re: New 401k for the Spouse

Despite the name, VIMAX is not really a midcap fund. The set of stocks contained in it is actually a subset of the set of stocks in the Vanguard large-cap index fund. VIMAX has substantial overlap with the S&P500. Why not just throw it all into DGSIX? As the balance grows, bonds can be moved to stoc...
by jalbert
Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why I use Roth for bond instead of stock. Please correct me...
Replies: 54
Views: 4294

Re: Why I use Roth for bond instead of stock. Please correct me...

but while we're on the this subject, one thing I often see mentioned is to hold International stock in ROTH but I don't really understand the argument for this. Is there any particular reason to place International in ROTH? Not particularly— moreover, doing so eliminates your ability to claim the f...
by jalbert
Thu Dec 13, 2018 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why I use Roth for bond instead of stock. Please correct me...
Replies: 54
Views: 4294

Re: Why I use Roth for bond instead of stock. Please correct me...

You may find this article intriguing: https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/asset-location-bonds-go-in-taxable/ Some comments about that. 1. The comparison is not using bonds with the same risk profile in tax-qualified and taxable spaces. Muni bonds have call provisions which will reduce return. Some o...