Search found 2206 matches

by jalbert
Mon Nov 20, 2017 3:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tipping in living wage state. Redux.
Replies: 102
Views: 5348

Re: Tipping in living wage state. Redux.

In the US, choose restaurants and menu items where the cost plus tip fits your budget or cook at home. Waitstaff generally aren't getting stock options or matching 401k contributions. One waiter I know funds an IRA with tips, and otherwise would not have any retirement savings.
by jalbert
Mon Nov 20, 2017 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors
Replies: 30
Views: 1587

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors

Due to data limitations, we’ll examine the 35-year period from 1982 through 2016.
What did treasury yields look like in 1982, and how would that affect a comparison of nominal returns of two portfolios, one of which is 75% treasuries and one of which is 40% treasuries? Just curious.
by jalbert
Mon Nov 20, 2017 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 117
Views: 7638

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

for example Vanguard's 2030 target fund is 28% bonds. If I were to retire in 13 years, I don't think I'd want 28% and an increasing percentage of my assets in bonds that are very likely to lose money in real terms between now and then. I don't think it is highly likely that intermediate term bonds ...
by jalbert
Fri Nov 17, 2017 1:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World's Negative Interest Rate Experiment
Replies: 34
Views: 3266

Re: The World's Negative Interest Rate Experiment

Correct. There was discussion about TIPs real yields being negative in 2012 and I was just suggesting that was still true for sufficiently short-term TIPs today.
by jalbert
Thu Nov 16, 2017 11:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World's Negative Interest Rate Experiment
Replies: 34
Views: 3266

Re: The World's Negative Interest Rate Experiment

The SEC yield on the Vanguard Short-term TIPs index fund is negative at the moment:

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/ ... IntExt=INT

Admiral shares or ETF are 9 basis points higher.
by jalbert
Thu Nov 16, 2017 12:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!
Replies: 151
Views: 9944

Re: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!

What about the following: Need 100k/year, so desire to have 2.5M (4%) withdrawal. Lets say right now in 2017, i hit 2.5M,so I could retire. Great. Instead, lets say that i didn't check my balance. And we hit a bear market. And my 2.5M is now 2.0M at 2.0 M in 2018 (after bear market) - my 4% won't g...
by jalbert
Tue Nov 14, 2017 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Makes U.S. Treasuries the World's "Safe" Asset?
Replies: 24
Views: 2477

Re: What Makes U.S. Treasuries the World's "Safe" Asset?

Well the UK government has issued and repaid its debts since 1694.
http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/ ... e-usa.html

Finally paid off in 2015, but the debt was not serviced for 81 years, from 1934 to 2015.
by jalbert
Tue Nov 14, 2017 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wife's 401k investment options (high fees!)
Replies: 26
Views: 1265

Re: Wife's 401k investment options (high fees!)

If there is not the expectation of having over 100 employees, replacing the plan with a SIMPLE IRA would be one strategy.
by jalbert
Tue Nov 14, 2017 12:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wife's 401k investment options (high fees!)
Replies: 26
Views: 1265

Re: Wife's 401k investment options (high fees!)

There is no reason to exclude the midcap index fund and reit index fund based on expense ratio (1 and 2 bp higher than SP500 respectively). Your wife could open a Roth IRA say at Vanguard and make monthly contributions. Only contribute to the 401k if and after she has maxxed out the Roth IRA. One wa...
by jalbert
Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman: The One Fund Every Investor Should Own
Replies: 122
Views: 18300

Re: Paul Merriman: The One Fund Every Investor Should Own

Do you levy these same concerns over the viability of a pure buy-and-hold strategy as well? If not, how did you arrive at your conclusion? That timing decisions increase variance of long-term return seems clear. Yes, I view it as unsubstantiated that timing decisions are as likely to hurt as help s...
by jalbert
Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman: The One Fund Every Investor Should Own
Replies: 122
Views: 18300

Re: Paul Merriman: The One Fund Every Investor Should Own

No method is perfect, but the method they used seems as reliable as any other I've seen. Well, if they are looking at 42-year returns, then their sample size is 1. The design of the measures to use to drive the allocation/timing decisions would have to be made with no knowledge of the data against ...
by jalbert
Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Makes U.S. Treasuries the World's "Safe" Asset?
Replies: 24
Views: 2477

Re: What Makes U.S. Treasuries the World's "Safe" Asset?

The US treasury security market is the deepest and most liquid securities market in the workd. When the global economy is in dire straits, liquidity matters alot. Thr credit worthiness of the US treasury is backed by the tax revenue derived from 25% of the world's GDP, and the largest gold reserves ...
by jalbert
Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman: The One Fund Every Investor Should Own
Replies: 122
Views: 18300

Re: Paul Merriman: The One Fund Every Investor Should Own

There was no potential for a biased sample as they examined S&P 500 data from 1970 to 2012.
Sample is non-random. Sample size is 42 if looking at 1-yr returns. Sample size is 4 if looking at independent 10 year returns. It is not easy to answer the authors' questions in a generalizable way.
by jalbert
Sun Nov 12, 2017 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman: The One Fund Every Investor Should Own
Replies: 122
Views: 18300

Re: Paul Merriman: The One Fund Every Investor Should Own

Did you pay for a subscription to read the full article referenced here: http://www.iijournals.com/doi/abs/10.3905/jpm.2015.42.1.110 or just cut and paste the abstract? Biased samples and non-generalizable results are pervasive with backtesting research, so it is vital to see the methodology used to...
by jalbert
Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman: The One Fund Every Investor Should Own
Replies: 122
Views: 18300

Re: Paul Merriman: The One Fund Every Investor Should Own

Even Larry Swedroe has said that timing the market may improve risk-adjusted returns. This is likely because it helps investors to avoid 50% declines such as in 2008-2009. I don't believe there is any evidence that anyone can reliably time the start of bear markets well enough to improve risk-adjus...
by jalbert
Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman: The One Fund Every Investor Should Own
Replies: 122
Views: 18300

Re: Paul Merriman: The One Fund Every Investor Should Own

Holding RZV in taxable space could turn into a tax trap. If and when value goes through the next period of overperformance (and presumably it will), will RZV continue to be able to avoid distributing capital gains? I expect that it would. The ETF structure has prevented Vanguard's small-cap value i...
by jalbert
Sat Nov 11, 2017 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman: The One Fund Every Investor Should Own
Replies: 122
Views: 18300

Re: Paul Merriman: The One Fund Every Investor Should Own

If room for holding value funds is tight and you want deep exposure in one fund, it makes sense to hold RZV (Guggenheim S&P 600 Pure Value) at 0.35% expenses. This ETF has very deep value exposure, and is mostly micro-caps. It is also suitable for a taxable account because of its extremely low yiel...
by jalbert
Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "$1 Million is Closer Than You Think"
Replies: 54
Views: 9337

Re: "$1 Million is Closer Than You Think"

I input a 7 figure number and it told me I had a 95% chance of having $1 million in 5 years :shock: Yeah. If you input $1,000,000 Saved with a target of reaching the same amount in 10 Years ... it suggests an 85% probability. Hmmmm. This interactive ad would benefit from some data validation. :| Ac...
by jalbert
Fri Nov 10, 2017 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you keep anything in your portfolio as a monument to your bad decisions?
Replies: 69
Views: 4590

Re: Do you keep anything in your portfolio as a monument to your bad decisions?

My SO bought some stock in a sure thing company maybe 8 years ago. I keep it in her account as a reminder. Current value is <$1 and has been that way for years.

Worst part is the account is tax deferred so no loss harvesting
If the account is tax-deferred, you harvested the loss going in.
by jalbert
Thu Nov 09, 2017 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS at a young age?
Replies: 23
Views: 1079

Re: TIPS at a young age?

Thank you for the great replies. Can you also address the portion of the question about how appropriate this bond allocation is for a young person? Did David Swensen mean for this recommendation to be for all ages? Yes. He presents it as a risk-management bond portfolio, i.e. to diversify equity ri...
by jalbert
Thu Nov 09, 2017 2:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The small-cap effect really has failed to materialize"
Replies: 37
Views: 5073

Re: "The small-cap effect really has failed to materialize"

Because of S&P liquidity and profitability screens, over half of the companies whose stocks belong to a total US stock market index are smaller than any company in IJR. Not saying that's a bad thing, but this fund tracks an index (S&P600) that is in turn part of the S&P 1500 Composite index (roughly...
by jalbert
Wed Nov 08, 2017 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets - Returns Lower than Claimed?
Replies: 19
Views: 1912

Re: Emerging Markets - Returns Lower than Claimed?

It is true the EM index returns before the mid-1990s are pure fiction if viewed as investment returns. High transaction cost and low liquidity of many index components denied even institutional investors the opportunity to achieve the index return. One of the earliest organizations to offer institut...
by jalbert
Tue Nov 07, 2017 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard GNMA Fund Versus Total Bond Market Index Fund
Replies: 19
Views: 2725

Re: Vanguard GNMA Fund Versus Total Bond Market Index Fund

Be very careful when comparing GNMA metrics vs. any non-mortgage bond fund. If mortgage rates increase, prepayments are likely to decrease (all else equal) which will impact the attractiveness of the fund. Why? Refinancings should decline since a borrower's incentive to refi will decline & it's als...
by jalbert
Mon Nov 06, 2017 11:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hidden ADR fees in Vanguard international funds?
Replies: 1
Views: 336

Re: Hidden ADR fees in Vanguard international funds?

ADRs also save on administration and transaction costs by simplifying the purchase, ownership, and sale of stocks registered as ADRs: http://www.otcmarkets.com/learn/american-depositary-receipts The Vanguard Int'l Dividend Appreciation ETF is tracking an index so it doesn't have much latitude to dec...
by jalbert
Mon Nov 06, 2017 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did Vanguard change from 20% to 30% stock in TD retirement income fund?
Replies: 19
Views: 2184

Re: Did Vanguard change from 20% to 30% stock in TD retirement income fund?

As was mentioned, the Life Strategy Income Fund is 20/80 while the TR Income fund is now 30/70. So conservative investors do have a choice of a nicely-diversified portfolio in a single fund that rebalances automatically and that matches their desired allocation. The other difference is that TR Inco...
by jalbert
Mon Nov 06, 2017 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard GNMA Fund Versus Total Bond Market Index Fund
Replies: 19
Views: 2725

Re: Vanguard GNMA Fund Versus Total Bond Market Index Fund

The total bond index is great for low cost and the simplicity of holding a single fund. I don't think it is guaranteed to be the optimal bond subclass diversification, but I think Nobel Laureate Bill Sharpe would disagree with me. GNMAs and maybe MBS in general are areas where active management seem...
by jalbert
Mon Nov 06, 2017 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to do if a money market fund breaks the buck?
Replies: 29
Views: 2876

Re: What to do if a money market fund breaks the buck?

The Federal Money Market fund is about 48% obligations of the US treasury, 33% federal agency debt, and the rest repurchase agreements (repos). The credit quality of repos depends on the credit quality of the underlying collateral. The market is only pricing in a 1 bp spread between that and the tre...
by jalbert
Mon Nov 06, 2017 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to do if a money market fund breaks the buck?
Replies: 29
Views: 2876

Re: What to do if a money market fund breaks the buck?

I am not sure why Vanguard does it this way, but now the Federal MM Fund must be the settlement fund for a brokerage account (even if you only hold brokered CDs). I wish that Vanguard has some kind of bank account (FDIC Insured) as its settlement account. Vanguard uses the Federal MM fund because t...
by jalbert
Mon Nov 06, 2017 1:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for multiple sets of eyes to review
Replies: 39
Views: 3121

Re: Looking for multiple sets of eyes to review

Why would you lose the Muni und in the taxable and the International in the Roth? You have a large enough Roth space that you don’t need to hold Munis as you can meet your bond allocation in a tax-qualified account. Munis have credit risk, call risk, liquidity risk, and extension risk. People often...
by jalbert
Sat Nov 04, 2017 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for multiple sets of eyes to review
Replies: 39
Views: 3121

Re: Looking for multiple sets of eyes to review

Brokerage Account $73,000 About a 70/30 Mix ---FUSVX Spartan 500 Index $42,000 (57%) ---FHIGX Fidelity Municipal Income $22,500 (31%) ---FSSPX Fidelity Small Cap Index Fund $8,000 (11%) --Cash $100. Roth IRA $70,500 About an 85/15 Mix ---FUSVX Spartan 500 Index $32,000 (45%) ---FSEVX Fidelity Exten...
by jalbert
Sat Nov 04, 2017 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard GNMA Fund Versus Total Bond Market Index Fund
Replies: 19
Views: 2725

Re: Vanguard GNMA Fund Versus Total Bond Market Index Fund

GNMA funds have negative convexity. This makes them higher risk to investors leading to the higher yields. You can learn more here: https://www.vanguard.com/pdf/icrddc.pdf?2210045720 I am going to quibble a bit with this. First, the negative convexity does not mean higher risk - it means a differen...
by jalbert
Sat Nov 04, 2017 12:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CREF VarAnty funds vs TIAA Access TIAA-CREF Mutual Funds
Replies: 12
Views: 772

Re: CREF VarAnty funds vs TIAA Access TIAA-CREF Mutual Funds

With the very high ERs of the mutual funds the CREF variable annuities are preferred to the mutual funds. Option 1 Mix of CREF Stock and CREF Social Choice (60/40 balanced fund) to establish asset allocation. Allocation to CREF Stock would decrease to zero over their working life. This is to take ad...
by jalbert
Fri Nov 03, 2017 11:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Have TIPS truly been tested yet?
Replies: 34
Views: 2648

Re: Have TIPS truly been tested yet?

However, my concern is that they were only invented in the 1990’s. They have not been around for some of the crazy and unique market conditions of the past. We don’t really have the same track record to bank on, verses a fund like Total Bond Market. The Vanguard Total Bond Market index fund dates t...
by jalbert
Fri Nov 03, 2017 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to utilize newly available Vanguard funds in my 401K
Replies: 17
Views: 1412

Re: How to utilize newly available Vanguard funds in my 401K

Nonetheless, you are getting a good deal with Vanguard institutional index funds for 1 bp/yr over (institutional) ER. None are higher than corresponding admiral share class ERs. I guess ERs have become so low that 1 bp has become fodder for quibbling.
by jalbert
Fri Nov 03, 2017 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which 401k plan is better? This is for a small dental office
Replies: 34
Views: 2707

Re: Which 401k plan is better? This is for a small dental office

renue74 wrote:
Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:27 pm
Look into a SIMPLE IRA plan instead. Cost the company nothing and it can be self directed...meaning employees choose their own investments.
+1
Major win for the employees in terms of cost. Savings can flow to employee accounts instead of to plan administrators.
by jalbert
Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to utilize newly available Vanguard funds in my 401K
Replies: 17
Views: 1412

Re: How to utilize newly available Vanguard funds in my 401K

The more I think about it, it seems like we're getting screwed a little bit on the extra record keeping fee. You are getting a great deal actually. The reason you are getting institutional-class Vanguard funds is that the collective investments of all employees in the funds is sufficient to reach t...
by jalbert
Wed Nov 01, 2017 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to utilize newly available Vanguard funds in my 401K
Replies: 17
Views: 1412

Re: How to utilize newly available Vanguard funds in my 401K

Vanguard Developed Markets Index Fund – Symbol: VTMNX; Expense Ratio: 0.06% Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund – Symbol: VEMIX; Expense Ratio: 0.11% Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund – Symbol: VIEIX; Expense Ratio: 0.06% Vanguard Institutional Index Fund – Symbol: VINIX; Expense Ratio: 0....
by jalbert
Tue Oct 31, 2017 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett "Key Indicator" near dangerous all-time high...
Replies: 73
Views: 8911

Re: Buffet "Key Indicator" near dangerous all-time high...

I think this excerpt from Mr. Buffett's 2014 letter to Berkshire stockholders sums up his view of large caps vs, say small value stocks: My cigar-butt strategy worked very well while I was managing small sums. Indeed, the many dozens of free puffs I obtained in the 1950s made that decade by far the ...
by jalbert
Fri Oct 27, 2017 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are various investments impacted by inflation?
Replies: 21
Views: 1554

Re: How are various investments impacted by inflation?

All investments I know - with the exception of cash - have positive expected real return. Otherwise why invest in them?
When real rates are negative, TIPs have a negative expected real return over their duration timeframe. Commodities have a zero long-term expected real return.
by jalbert
Fri Oct 27, 2017 12:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 1031 Exchange Info
Replies: 11
Views: 753

Re: 1031 Exchange Info

There are some timelines involved after selling the current rental... 45 days after to identify new property or properties and 180 days to acquire the new property(ies). The new place(es) must be equal or great in value to the previous rental. No downsizing/down pricing. I don’t think that is corre...
by jalbert
Thu Oct 26, 2017 7:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Investors really underperform their investments
Replies: 45
Views: 3782

Re: Do Investors really underperform their investments

The investors that are purported to bail out and sell at the bottom of bear markets would lower the average return of mutual fund investors substantially in aggregate due to their contribution to the average.
by jalbert
Thu Oct 26, 2017 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: All in VANGUARD is that ok??
Replies: 64
Views: 8604

Re: All in VANGUARD is that ok??

I agree with you about that, even though the cookie or Flash setting or whatever they place on your computer is in fact the second factor. 2FA is more than just having a 2nd factor. The second factor is unique for every login session (at least for extended periods), which is critical to prevent rep...
by jalbert
Thu Oct 26, 2017 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review Request - Moving from Target Date funds
Replies: 6
Views: 746

Re: Portfolio Review Request - Moving from Target Date funds

Start by just focusing on asset classes and not mutual fund products. Determine asset allocation and preferred asset location at that level of abstraction.

Then decide on which mutual funds to use to implement the asset classes.
by jalbert
Thu Oct 26, 2017 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can you do a rollover even if you aren't leaving a job?
Replies: 20
Views: 2051

Re: Can you do a rollover even if you aren't leaving a job?

It depends on the type of trustee-to-trustee transfer whether or not it is reportable. In this case, there is no 1099-R because it is a transfer from an employer-sponsored plan to another plan sponsored by the same employer : Within the retirement industry, the term trustee-to-trustee-transfer is us...
by jalbert
Thu Oct 26, 2017 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are various investments impacted by inflation?
Replies: 21
Views: 1554

Re: How sensitive are various instruments to inflation?

Real estate also usually has a positive expected real return.
by jalbert
Wed Oct 25, 2017 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I sell rental property before I would have to pay taxes on capital gains?
Replies: 18
Views: 1301

Re: Should I sell rental property before I would have to pay taxes on capital gains?

If you would sell to fund college expenses, you would be better off selling tax-free and investing it suitably in a diversified portfolio. Maybe invest the equity portion in taxable account index funds, and the fixed income portion in a 529 and I-bonds. If the plan is for rental income to fund tuiti...
by jalbert
Wed Oct 25, 2017 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Concern re bond funds and current interest rate trend
Replies: 22
Views: 1554

Re: Concern re bond funds and current interest rate trend

I have a periodic advisor i consult with a few times a year...am 59 and my port. ratio is about 65% bond funds to 30% equity. Recent financial media chatter... and volatility has me concerned about my exposure, in even short and intermediate bond funds, and risk of principal depreciation.... i have...
by jalbert
Mon Oct 23, 2017 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not just annuitize and be done with it?
Replies: 52
Views: 16640

Re: Why not just annuitize and be done with it?

Delaying annuitizing assets to an older age is a tradeoff. It enhances estate size if you die before the annuity is purchased. But it also increases sequence of return risk from portfolio value falling relative to the change in annuity cost. State guaranty insurance limits have been increased in man...
by jalbert
Mon Oct 23, 2017 1:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Timing the Bond Market/Interet Rates
Replies: 10
Views: 1148

Re: Timing the Bond Market/Interest Rates

The Fed raised rates on Dec 16, 2015 for the first time since 2006, embarking on a long, slow campaign to unwind monetary accommodation.

Since Dec. 16, 2015, investors in VBTLX the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund who stayed the course have been rewarded with a total return of 5.77% to date.
by jalbert
Sun Oct 22, 2017 8:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Experian Dark Web scan
Replies: 36
Views: 4251

Re: Experian Dark Web scan

Agreed. Everyone should now assume that their basic demographic information and social security number are out in the wild, and possibly more information than that.
That was also true before the Equifax breach.