Search found 4120 matches

by Northern Flicker
Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long term care insurance policy
Replies: 140
Views: 4519

Re: Long term care insurance policy

OK, the real problem is the PREMIUMS are not clearly defined. Relatives of mine were subject to huge premium increases in their later years with no corresponding increase in benefits. Originally, insurance companies underpriced the actuarial risk with LTC policies and had to increase premiums to co...
by Northern Flicker
Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long term care insurance policy
Replies: 140
Views: 4519

Re: Long term care insurance policy

Forget nursing homes...you'll most likely to both get your LTC (& die) at home or an assisted living facility. ... Another reason not to buy LTCi if you want to live at home, you may not be able to get LTCi to pay even if you lose 2 functions as they state Some policies I’m seeing seem to cover lic...
by Northern Flicker
Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long term care insurance policy
Replies: 140
Views: 4519

Re: Long term care insurance policy

I have no doubt that many do, but it doesn't make mathematical sense to pay someone else to insure a risk (apart from perhaps owning a business and paying for LTCi with pre-tax instead of post-tax money, but that's not an option available to most people) that you can easily self-insure, and a perso...
by Northern Flicker
Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do futures really leverage exposure to?
Replies: 27
Views: 1751

Re: What do futures really leverage exposure to?

However, I'm having a hard time understanding how futures can be claimed to work as source of long-term leverage to the underlying asset. A futures contract does not have to be levered. Leverage is a separate property that typically is incorporated. And you likely will need a collateralized margin ...
by Northern Flicker
Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Opinion: Half of investment-grade bonds are only one step away from junk status
Replies: 23
Views: 2460

Re: Opinion: Half of investment-grade bonds are only one step away from junk status

To answer the justified "What are you trying to do?" questions, I'm about 85/15 stocks/bonds in a self-owned brokerage account with VTI, VXUS, VNQ, and BIV. If you increase the corporate bond allocation by holding say VGIT and VCIT in a different ratio than their corresponding components in BIV, yo...
by Northern Flicker
Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I put VTIAX or VTSAX into taxable account?
Replies: 20
Views: 1429

Re: Should I put VTIAX or VTSAX into taxable account?

I use ITOT(iShares Total Market Index) in taxable and VTSAX in tax deffered accounts. In 2017 VTSAX was slightly more tax-efficient than ITOT in a taxable account, but not by enough to matter much (94.78% qdi for VTSAX, 91.63% qdi for ITOT). VTSAX just missed clearing the 95% threshold that allows ...
by Northern Flicker
Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I put VTIAX or VTSAX into taxable account?
Replies: 20
Views: 1429

Re: Should I put VTIAX or VTSAX into taxable account?

Percent of dividends qualified in 2017: IXUS 77.81% VTIAX 66.6% That works out to about 30 basis points of dividends that are qualified for IXUS but regular income for VTIAX. I’m surprised by the disparity. Am I correct to assume that VXUS was the same as VTIAX? VXUS is the ETF share class of the s...
by Northern Flicker
Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Fidelity Zero Fund BETTER than Fidelity Expense Ratio Fund
Replies: 58
Views: 6778

Re: Is Fidelity Zero Fund BETTER than Fidelity Expense Ratio Fund

lostdog wrote:
Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:07 am
Will there ever be a "lower free" response from Vanguard?
How do you know vtsax is not cheaper today? I’m not say it is or isn’t, but how would you know?
by Northern Flicker
Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I put VTIAX or VTSAX into taxable account?
Replies: 20
Views: 1429

Re: Should I put VTIAX or VTSAX into taxable account?

Percent of dividends qualified in 2017:

IXUS 77.81%
VTIAX 66.6%

That works out to about 30 basis points of dividends that are qualified for IXUS but regular income for VTIAX.
by Northern Flicker
Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I put VTIAX or VTSAX into taxable account?
Replies: 20
Views: 1429

Re: Should I put VTIAX or VTSAX into taxable account?

BoggledHead2 wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 3:20 pm
I would add both (if you have at least 20K), get the admiral share class of both, and rebalance that way.

both funds are excellent taxable account funds.
The OP holds both funds in tax-qualified space where rebalancing may be done for the whole portfolio with no tax considerations.
by Northern Flicker
Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I put VTIAX or VTSAX into taxable account?
Replies: 20
Views: 1429

Re: Should I put VTIAX or VTSAX into taxable account?

Stinky wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:55 pm
dwickenh wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:46 pm
If you intend to do any TLH on these in the taxable account, beware of reinvested dividends in the tax deferred accounts.
Thank you for the heads up. I hadn’t thought of that angle.
This is another benefit of using IXUS in taxable, and VTIAX in tax-deferred space.
by Northern Flicker
Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I put VTIAX or VTSAX into taxable account?
Replies: 20
Views: 1429

Re: Should I put VTIAX or VTSAX into taxable account?

The non-US fund has a higher dividend rate and lower percentage of qualified dividends, but holding it in a taxable account preserves the foreign tax credit. Thus, the answer often depends on tax bracket. A 3rd option is to hold IXUS in the taxable account. IXUS is more tax efficient than VTIAX, and...
by Northern Flicker
Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Opinion: Half of investment-grade bonds are only one step away from junk status
Replies: 23
Views: 2460

Re: Opinion: Half of investment-grade bonds are only one step away from junk status

https://apple.news/AUkltT2EMQiqVPQqKEC2HPw I've been thinking of going beyond BIV into VCIT for the bond portion of my kids' college savings account (kids are 4, 2, and 7mo, fwiw), but this has me balking. I like the 30-day yield, but...eek. Thoughts? What are you trying to accomplish? What does th...
by Northern Flicker
Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Zero Funds
Replies: 35
Views: 2401

Re: Fidelity Zero Funds

I read that the zero funds are not actual true index funds, like S&P, MSCI, CRSP, Russell, etc. but are generic Fidelity constructed "index" funds from a smaller amount of stocks from a true index. I did not know that. That is helpful to know. Index funds normally use optimizers and sampling to tra...
by Northern Flicker
Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguards recommends investors to increase international (non-US) stock holdings to 40% ?
Replies: 125
Views: 11529

Re: Vanguards recommends investors to increase international (non-US) stock holdings to 40% ?

At the other extreme, some argue that an international allocation is unnecessary. Mr. Bogle was very frank in his reasoning to avoid foreign stocks. I’ve listened to recordings of Mr. Bogle speaking about it. In one, he has said that Vanguard started offering non-US equity products in the 1990’s an...
by Northern Flicker
Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are index fund managers forced to sell stocks when incurring greater trading?
Replies: 28
Views: 2027

Re: Are index fund managers forced to sell stocks when incurring greater trading?

If this was a "major advantage", ETFs tracking the same index as a mutual fund would outperform over time. Do you see ETFs outperforming similarly indexed mutual funds? Yes they do. Only by a few bps, but every bps counts. I know savings millions when running trillions of AUM does not sound like a ...
by Northern Flicker
Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are index fund managers forced to sell stocks when incurring greater trading?
Replies: 28
Views: 2027

Re: Are index fund managers forced to sell stocks when incurring greater trading?

It is true, but not a specific disadvantage. Suppose that an index fund has a billion shares outstanding, and holds a million shares of XYZ stock, worth $10 per share; an investor with 1000 shares in the fund thus holds $10 worth of XYZ stock. If the fund has to sell 10% of its holdings, it will ha...
by Northern Flicker
Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the disadvantages of taking all risk on equity side?
Replies: 63
Views: 3687

Re: What are the disadvantages of taking all risk on equity side?

The argument that insurance companies drive down the yields of long treasuries is not a proven fact. It’s a theory called “preferred habitat theory” and I challenge it here: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=268670#p4301652 viewtopic.php?f=10&t=268670#p4301744 That pensions also have short-term liabilities is i...
by Northern Flicker
Sat Jan 12, 2019 7:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguards recommends investors to increase international (non-US) stock holdings to 40% ?
Replies: 125
Views: 11529

Re: Vanguards recommends investors to increase international (non-US) stock holdings to 40% ?

According to CRSP data, there were more than 9,100 U.S.-listed public companies in 1997. Today, that number is down to slightly more than 5,700. The Wilshire 5000, an index used as a proxy for all U.S. securities with readily available pricing data, holds just over 3,600 stocks as of the start of t...
by Northern Flicker
Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long term care insurance policy
Replies: 140
Views: 4519

Re: Long term care insurance policy

Also, there are no long-term care insurance policies that have premiums that are guaranteed to remain level for life. I have rate table and info on a policy with level premiums for life. Is it a life insurance policy with an LTC rider? OR is it a traditional long-term care insurance policy? Traditi...
by Northern Flicker
Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguards recommends investors to increase international (non-US) stock holdings to 40% ?
Replies: 125
Views: 11529

Re: Vanguards recommends investors to increase international (non-US) stock holdings to 40% ?

Hello folks, I read an article where vanguard recommends investors to increase their international (non-US) holdings to 40% as it appears below in the Bloomberg article. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-11/vanguard-recommends-investors-increase-non-u-s-holdings-to-40 What are your th...
by Northern Flicker
Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long term care insurance policy
Replies: 140
Views: 4519

Re: Long term care insurance policy

It seems that there were major disruptions to the LTC insurance market. Originally, many insurance companies underpriced the risk and this led to sharp premium increases and many companies leaving the market. Today, it seems a number of companies have returned to the LTC insurance market, and things...
by Northern Flicker
Fri Jan 11, 2019 11:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the disadvantages of taking all risk on equity side?
Replies: 63
Views: 3687

Re: What are the disadvantages of taking all risk on equity side?

I think longer duration bonds would have increased correlation to equities. Growth stocks, and most market cap weighted TSM portfolios are basically large growth portfolios, have some exposure to the term premium. My understanding is that if one is really taking his risk on the equity side, he shou...
by Northern Flicker
Fri Jan 11, 2019 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the disadvantages of taking all risk on equity side?
Replies: 63
Views: 3687

Re: What are the disadvantages of taking all risk on equity side?

I think longer duration bonds would have increased correlation to equities. Growth stocks, and most market cap weighted TSM portfolios are basically large growth portfolios, have some exposure to the term premium. My understanding is that if one is really taking his risk on the equity side, he shou...
by Northern Flicker
Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the disadvantages of taking all risk on equity side?
Replies: 63
Views: 3687

Re: What are the disadvantages of taking all risk on equity side?

The portfolio with Long Treasuries has the lowest correlation with the stock market, therefore it is more diversified and less risky than a portfolio with short bonds and/or intermediate bonds. If you mean historical sample correlations, that is not always the case: https://www.portfoliovisualizer....
by Northern Flicker
Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the disadvantages of taking all risk on equity side?
Replies: 63
Views: 3687

Re: What are the disadvantages of taking all risk on equity side?

I interpret "taking all the risk on the equity side" to mean taking out risk on the bond side, in other words, keeping the equity allocation the same but shortening duration on your bonds. Well you are choosing to add additional constraints to the statement. The proponents of the statement “take ri...
by Northern Flicker
Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TLH Partner for Vanguard Tax-Managed Small Cap
Replies: 14
Views: 457

Re: TLH Partner for Vanguard Tax-Managed Small Cap

IJR would be fine as well and closer to VTMSX and more tax-efficient if the market rallies and you end up holding it long-term. There are enough differences between IJR and VTMSX that they are not substantially identical.
by Northern Flicker
Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the disadvantages of taking all risk on equity side?
Replies: 63
Views: 3687

Re: What are the disadvantages of taking all risk on equity side?

Two disadvantages: 1. Lower returns in the long run 2. Worse diversification of your equity allocation If your time horizon is not the long run, and/or you have a small equity allocation, neither of these points will matter as much. It is not a lower expected return if you hold risk constant. Holdi...
by Northern Flicker
Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity "FidSafe" Free online storage of documents - is this safe?
Replies: 49
Views: 8667

Re: Fidelity "FidSafe" Free online storage of documents - is this safe?

For how long does a cloud archival service archive their backups? Forever? Are you going to monitor it to be sure you notice a missing or corrupted file before all of their backups containing the good version are gone? And even if they have the backups forever, are they going to reload the file from...
by Northern Flicker
Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity "FidSafe" Free online storage of documents - is this safe?
Replies: 49
Views: 8667

Re: Fidelity "FidSafe" Free online storage of documents - is this safe?

Can someone who understands this stuff explain if this is safer, less safe, or the same as other solutions? Their 2-factor authentication solution depends on SMS, which is not the best practice, so that looks bad for their security. Dropbox, for instance, supports U2F, which is probably the gold st...
by Northern Flicker
Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are index fund managers forced to sell stocks when incurring greater trading?
Replies: 28
Views: 2027

Re: Are index fund managers forced to sell stocks when incurring greater trading?

I was talking to a friend and he said that ETFs are way better than mutual funds because when holders of mutual funds begin to sell their funds, this causes the mutual fund manager to have to sell stocks within the fund as well. Is this true? I think he may be thinking of actively managed funds and...
by Northern Flicker
Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard explains the increase in ex-us allocation
Replies: 34
Views: 4675

Re: Vanguard explains the increase in ex-us allocation

They are referring to transaction costs, which are not part of ER. (Transaction costs do also include admin costs in the form of soft dollar broker fees that are added in to commissions to move some admin costs from ER to transaction fees.)
by Northern Flicker
Thu Jan 10, 2019 6:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 5 days. What to do in Las Vegas and Grand Canyon
Replies: 48
Views: 2654

Re: 5 days. What to do in Las Vegas and Grand Canyon

It is just a 4 hour drive from Las Vegas to Zion Natl Park. One of the routes allows for a stopover at Lake Mead and/or the Valley of Fire. You also could include Bryce Canyon. You will spend less time on travel and more time doing things in a park with such an itinerary vs the Grand Canyon.
by Northern Flicker
Thu Jan 10, 2019 6:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: State Insurance Guaranty Pools
Replies: 10
Views: 663

Re: State Insurance Guaranty Pools

All I can say is that the above is summarizing things in a weird way that is the gist of it, but it is not really how it works.
I agree it is perhaps a surprising implementation of state insurance guaranty pools, but it nonetheless seems to be how they work.
by Northern Flicker
Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Building Wealth Through Home Equity--Myth or Reality?
Replies: 94
Views: 6208

Re: Building Wealth Through Home Equity--Myth or Reality?

The correct financial comparison is renting or buying an equivalent dwelling. Of course each is unique, so the real comparison is renting or buying the very same space. PJW, Okay. So, what do you call folks that never intended to rent a 3,400 square feet single family home but use that rent to just...
by Northern Flicker
Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round
Replies: 105
Views: 12595

Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

maybe I'm a little dense this morning, but what unfunded pensions and health care liabilities is he talking about that would require federal intervention? (I get that many states are underfunded, but what does that have to do with US bonds? I think he is just saying that the current tax regimen and...
by Northern Flicker
Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Negative 13.6% return in 401K for 2018
Replies: 55
Views: 5820

Re: Negative 13.6% return in 401K for 2018

Hello folks, I am new to Bogle heads. I am Male, 30, have around 40K in my Vanguard 401K with my employer. I do not have target retirement fund, but it is goes into a variety of mutual funds. The first 8 months of 2018 were good, but the last 4 months made me have a -13.6% return causing my assets ...
by Northern Flicker
Thu Jan 10, 2019 2:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How did you solve the pre-medicare healthcare riddle?
Replies: 81
Views: 5768

Re: How did you solve the pre-medicare healthcare riddle?

Presently, you cannot be denied coverage under ACA. In at least some if not most states, bronze HSA plans are the most cost effective for most people, but it must be analyzed individually. Silver plans can be more cost effective if you qualify for cost-sharing reductions on top of a premium tax cred...
by Northern Flicker
Thu Jan 10, 2019 2:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Building Wealth Through Home Equity--Myth or Reality?
Replies: 94
Views: 6208

Re: Building Wealth Through Home Equity--Myth or Reality?

Doubling in 381 years is an average annual return of less than 0.2% per year. Per the graph I did not duplicate here, that is a real return. You also get the imputed income of rent not paid (less maintenance cost). Home ownership, especially factoring in a mortgage, hedges cost of living against in...
by Northern Flicker
Wed Jan 09, 2019 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why did RAD stock fall so much?
Replies: 15
Views: 939

Re: Why did RAD stock fall so much?

I did invest in them years ago and took my gains before they fell. Why do you say not to pick individual stocks? Isn't that essentially what any fund does? They invest in individual stocks for you. A good stock mutual fund invests in a diversified portfolio of individual stocks for you. Most indivi...
by Northern Flicker
Wed Jan 09, 2019 6:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: High Income for First Time, Kid on the Way, and I'm Overwhelmed with My Options (Long)
Replies: 33
Views: 2159

Re: High Income for First Time, Kid on the Way, and I'm Overwhelmed with My Options (Long)

Congrats on your and your spouse’s successes. If you are itemizing deductions and getting net value over the standard deduction by deducting your mortgage, I likely would not focus on paying it off, but any fixed income allocation you need to hold in taxable space should be implemented by using the ...
by Northern Flicker
Wed Jan 09, 2019 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategy for the Bogleheads contest
Replies: 36
Views: 1849

Re: Strategy for the Bogleheads contest

In any case, The Boglehead contest should be conducted where people submit their guesses without being able to see other guesses, simulating them all being submitted as a single, atomic action.
by Northern Flicker
Wed Jan 09, 2019 2:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: State Insurance Guaranty Pools
Replies: 10
Views: 663

Re: State Insurance Guaranty Pools

Reinsurance is a separate issue. When an insurance company becomes insolvent, they will be taken into receivership by the state insurance regulators, and a common outcome would be for assessments to be made of solvent insurance companies doing business in the state to make up the actuarial shortfall...
by Northern Flicker
Tue Jan 08, 2019 11:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: State Insurance Guaranty Pools
Replies: 10
Views: 663

Re: State Insurance Guaranty Pools

I am not aware of any state guaranty pools that maintain assets to cover the shortfalls of insolvent insurance companies. They will do assessments of remaining insurance companies doing business in the state. What was surprising was that a P&C insurer saying they would push such assessments through ...
by Northern Flicker
Tue Jan 08, 2019 11:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategy for the Bogleheads contest
Replies: 36
Views: 1849

Re: Strategy for the Bogleheads contest

I don’t know the answer, but it is not unreasonable that there could be some very low probability middle ground between “well behaved” outcomes and outcomes resulting from events of great duress or crisis.
by Northern Flicker
Tue Jan 08, 2019 11:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Files for Four Fidelity ZERO℠ Funds (0.00% ER)
Replies: 798
Views: 82612

Re: Fidelity ZERO funds?

ETA: I think they have similarly outperformed the Vanguard funds. The total US stock market fund FZROX is lagging VTSAX by about 50+ bp over its roughly 5 month existence. It likely needs a larger balance over which to amortize transaction cost before it will be competitive: As many have pointed ou...
by Northern Flicker
Tue Jan 08, 2019 11:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need advice for further investments
Replies: 19
Views: 1346

Re: Need advice for further investments

Suppose all of your retirement assets were Roth. You would pay no tax on withdrawals, but some of those withdrawals would have been in the zero bracket anyway, meaning you needlessly paid tax on the income when it was earned. You also may retire in a state without income tax, saving the CA tax on th...
by Northern Flicker
Tue Jan 08, 2019 11:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: State Insurance Guaranty Pools
Replies: 10
Views: 663

Re: State Insurance Guaranty Pools

The notice in question was from State Farm for auto/home. It is hard to see how a premium increase could get pushed through to, say, a SPIA holder without it just being a haircut on the payout, defeating the point of the guaranty.