Search found 5570 matches

by Northern Flicker
Tue May 26, 2020 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: El-Erian comments on the crisis
Replies: 61
Views: 6171

Re: El-Erian comments on the crisis

Interesting interview and comments from someone who has IMO a good understanding of markets and the economy. Like Zell, he doesn't think a V shaped recovery is a sure thing. Lots of risk still out there and our options to deal with it are robust but less than perfect. Sobering assessment. https://w...
by Northern Flicker
Tue May 26, 2020 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?
Replies: 72
Views: 3400

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

I see there is a thread here inquiring whether anyone has screwed up trying to time the market. I would like to ask the opposite question, but I prefer the term “valuation driven capital redeployment”. “Market timing” is such a negative sounding term. Between March 25 and March 27 I sold all of my ...
by Northern Flicker
Sun May 24, 2020 12:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Tires or New Car?
Replies: 54
Views: 2880

Re: New Tires or New Car?

If you are not driving much, buying a new car will just lead to taking the steepest part of the depreciation while the car mostly is sitting. If you want to replace the vehicle, I’d bet there may be some great deals late summer or early fall when 2021 models arrive and dealers have a logjam of unsol...
by Northern Flicker
Sat May 23, 2020 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: El-Erian comments on the crisis
Replies: 61
Views: 6171

Re: El-Erian comments on the crisis

Interesting interview and comments from someone who has IMO a good understanding of markets and the economy. Like Zell, he doesn't think a V shaped recovery is a sure thing. Lots of risk still out there and our options to deal with it are robust but less than perfect. Sobering assessment. https://w...
by Northern Flicker
Sat May 23, 2020 11:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking of selling some SP 500 to buy more Wells Fargo
Replies: 73
Views: 4727

Re: Thinking of selling some SP 500 to buy more Wells Fargo

SP 500 has risen so much while Wells Fargo Still near it’s 5 years time low with still 50% down. While the well Fargo will never go away, it’s a matter of time the stock goes back to $50 like couple if months ago? Says who? If that were a likely scenario, the market would already have bid up the pr...
by Northern Flicker
Sat May 23, 2020 11:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does it make sense to exclude China from portfolio and/or EM
Replies: 18
Views: 1079

Re: Does it make sense to exclude China from portfolio and/or EM

. I am almost 70. As of 5/15/2020 my AA is 42/58, International is 10.6% of the total AA and it is the Vanguard Total International Stock Market Index (TISMI). Per the Vanguard site, 23.5% of TISMI is EM and 10.1% of that is China so if my math is correct only 2.3% of TISMI is China? 10.1% of the V...
by Northern Flicker
Sat May 23, 2020 11:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should We Our Shorten Bond Duration?
Replies: 43
Views: 2526

Re: Should We Our Shorten Bond Duration?

About 9 months ago, the Vanguard quantitative group that models the managed portfolio in VPGDX added an allocation to the Vanguard Ultrashort Bond fund, effectively reducing duration and increasing credit exposure of the fixed income portion of the portfolio. The fixed income sub-portfolio of the fu...
by Northern Flicker
Sat May 23, 2020 9:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should We Our Shorten Bond Duration?
Replies: 43
Views: 2526

Re: Should We Our Shorten Bond Duration?

EM bonds are much less “equity like” than US corporate bonds are, though. What is the evidence for that claim? The only thing I can come up with to look at the question is sample correlations in portfoliovisualizer using some existing products. While this is hardly a definitive analysis, it suggest...
by Northern Flicker
Sat May 23, 2020 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds
Replies: 71
Views: 4759

Re: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds

As noted in a previous thread , this applies to fixed income funds in general right now, not just money market funds. The general concern is that portfolio managers will ratchet up risk to earn enough yield to cover the ER. Investors take the risk, but the risk premium may flow to the fund company i...
by Northern Flicker
Fri May 22, 2020 4:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Safely disinfecting frozen food packages from corona virus?
Replies: 51
Views: 3560

Re: Safely disinfecting frozen food packages from corona virus?

We separate an area of the freezer for newly purchased items ahead of going to the grocery store, and then don’t use these items for (at least) 2 days.
by Northern Flicker
Thu May 21, 2020 11:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: what to do with pension from previous job
Replies: 13
Views: 1025

Re: what to do with pension from previous job

Be careful rolling over to an IRA without doing due diligence on the pension options. The rollover is an irreversible step. If the interest earned is 1 percentage point over the t-bill rate or 4.01%, which is it? Is it the maximum of the two? If so, she should leave it in and take the 4.01% return f...
by Northern Flicker
Thu May 21, 2020 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 8778

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 9:31 pm
All of the China-hating on Bogleheads makes me happy, in a way.

It keeps the risk premium, and expected returns, Hugh for the rest of us.
I believe that is wishful thinking. Whatever the expected return, I doubt Bogleheads postings have any effect.
by Northern Flicker
Thu May 21, 2020 9:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Blown Power Amplifier: Repair or Replace? [resolved]
Replies: 39
Views: 1770

Re: Blown Power Amplifier: Repair or Replace?

Your amp is rated to drive loads down to 2 ohms. Your speakers are 6 ohms and 8 ohms so the combined impedance of them in parallel is 1/(1/6 + 1/8) or about 3.4 ohms. It is not exact because impedances vary with frequency so the ratings of the speakers are averages. Still, this should not pose a pro...
by Northern Flicker
Thu May 21, 2020 9:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should We Our Shorten Bond Duration?
Replies: 43
Views: 2526

Re: Should We Our Shorten Bond Duration?

I've never liked bonds since we started using them in 2006. What, exactly, has been the problem with bonds since 2006? (Below VTSAX is US stocks, VTIAX is non-US stocks, and VBILX is intermediate bond index): http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=vtsax&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A11%2C...
by Northern Flicker
Thu May 21, 2020 5:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Blown Power Amplifier: Repair or Replace? [resolved]
Replies: 39
Views: 1770

Re: Blown Power Amplifier: Repair or Replace?

Having revived many amps over the years (first in technician school and then on weekends in the lab of work for my engineering job), I know that you should first figure out why the fuses blew. They don't just blow for no reason. I've found in the many repairs I've done that the output stage typical...
by Northern Flicker
Thu May 21, 2020 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 8778

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

Seems to me there are two things being labelled as "share dilution" in this thread. One is more companies entering the market, thus being included in the index, "diluting" your investment in the existing companies if you hold an index fund. The other is companies issuing new shares, diluting your o...
by Northern Flicker
Thu May 21, 2020 2:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I freaked out…now what?
Replies: 60
Views: 6067

Re: I freaked out…now what?

Start buying some equities now and on a regular basis. For example, 5% on the first of the month for 6 months would bring you back to 30% equities. Then pause and rethink whether you want another 10% equities. Also look at possibilities for your fixed income. What is it in now? Maybe you can find s...
by Northern Flicker
Thu May 21, 2020 2:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I freaked out…now what?
Replies: 60
Views: 6067

Re: I freaked out…now what?

Crisis = opportunity. Now that you are out, you have an opportunity to design an asset allocation that is appropriate for your situation and that you can live with through thick and thin. Focus on that, and then you can get back in. You may want to consider something like Vanguard Personal Advisor S...
by Northern Flicker
Wed May 20, 2020 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 8778

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

Right. But there is a general notion that EM countries like China, India, and others will be the big drivers of growth, but that the benefit is tempered by share dilution. I think those are generally contradictory points of view.
by Northern Flicker
Wed May 20, 2020 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 8778

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

A company cannot issue lots of new shares regularly and regularly expect the level of success with the new capital that will increase value for the current shareholders. Which is what Mr. Bernstein indicated about China. My impression is that there is a fair amount of mis-allocation of capital in C...
by Northern Flicker
Wed May 20, 2020 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 8778

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

Chinese companies also have a high debt load. From: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-29/china-s-corporate-deleveraging-campaign-may-be-set-back-by-years China’s nonfinancial corporate debt accounted for 156.7% of the country’s gross domestic product as of the third quarter of last ye...
by Northern Flicker
Wed May 20, 2020 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 8778

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

Has anyone considered adding a China ETF to their portfolios based on this flaw presented by Dr. Malkiel? Anyone who has been a passive investor in an emerging markets index fund in recent years (using either MSCI or FTSE indexes) has been automatically adding an increased China exposure to their p...
by Northern Flicker
Wed May 20, 2020 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 8778

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

Chinese companies also have a high debt load. From: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-29/china-s-corporate-deleveraging-campaign-may-be-set-back-by-years China’s nonfinancial corporate debt accounted for 156.7% of the country’s gross domestic product as of the third quarter of last yea...
by Northern Flicker
Wed May 20, 2020 1:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Individual stock for son's birthday
Replies: 54
Views: 2043

Re: Individual stock for son's birthday

Get a share of Disney stock, have the paper stock certificate issued, and frame it, so your son can hang it on the wall, and collect quarterly dividend checks for around $2.99 and track 1099’s reporting annual income of around $12 for the rest of his life. As a side effect, he can be taught to belie...
by Northern Flicker
Tue May 19, 2020 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My idea for a 3-fund portfolio
Replies: 13
Views: 843

Re: My idea for a 3-fund portfolio

This is an active allocation strategy, not a portfolio designed to be a long-term holding. A question for the OP: if large cap US stocks and treasuries are so clearly and robustly overvalued, while the asset classes proposed are so clearly undervalued, why aren’t the institutional participants who d...
by Northern Flicker
Tue May 19, 2020 12:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYTs article:— New York Times article May 17, Dealing With the Dark Side of Low Interest Rates
Replies: 79
Views: 7687

Re: NYTs article:— New York Times article May 17, Dealing With the Dark Side of Low Interest Rates

I think you can blame the central banks of other countries -- particularly Japan and Europe -- all of whom believe that financial repression is the path to prosperity. How has it worked out for them? I don't see how you can blame the banks for financial repression. As the graph shows, the Fed betwe...
by Northern Flicker
Tue May 19, 2020 12:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard PrimeCap Core
Replies: 12
Views: 1461

Re: Vanguard PrimeCap Core

It is best to design an asset allocation at the level of abstract asset classes, and then choose mutual funds or ETFs to implement the classes. This not only means not starting with the premise that you want to try some active funds to see how it performs, but even starting with the premise of wanti...
by Northern Flicker
Mon May 18, 2020 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend vs Total Return question
Replies: 66
Views: 2736

Re: Dividend vs Total Return question

But it will not be a zero tax rate in most states or if you get an ACA tax credit. But even if you don’t use individual insurance and live in a state without income tax, you still miss the tax loss harvesting of the mutual fund withdrawals made when the market was down in the example if harvesting d...
by Northern Flicker
Mon May 18, 2020 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYTs article:— New York Times article May 17, Dealing With the Dark Side of Low Interest Rates
Replies: 79
Views: 7687

Re: NYTs article:— New York Times article May 17, Dealing With the Dark Side of Low Interest Rates

Rates are lower today than say a year or two ago because of economic weakness. Rates have been low on a secular basis over the last 10-15 years because of the aging of boomers into the age range that places a high demand on bonds and also because of countries with emerging economies holding large r...
by Northern Flicker
Mon May 18, 2020 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend vs Total Return question
Replies: 66
Views: 2736

Re: Dividend vs Total Return question

One question and I do not want to start the usual back and forth about this. Please clearly explain this one thing that bothers me to no end. You have 100,000 to invest. I have 100,000 to invest. You invest it in the total mkt and take out 300 dollars per month selling shares. I invest it in a qual...
by Northern Flicker
Mon May 18, 2020 12:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYTs article:— New York Times article May 17, Dealing With the Dark Side of Low Interest Rates
Replies: 79
Views: 7687

Re: NYTs article:— New York Times article May 17, Dealing With the Dark Side of Low Interest Rates

Conversely, savers just benefited from a 10 year bull market. Interest rates might be low, but if your portfolio gets big enough who cares. Savers benefitted from the 10-year bull market? How so? Savers got reamed. $10,000 invested in a 60/40 portfolio from 2009-April 2020 grew to $28,518. A 9.69% ...
by Northern Flicker
Sun May 17, 2020 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYTs article:— New York Times article May 17, Dealing With the Dark Side of Low Interest Rates
Replies: 79
Views: 7687

Re: NYTs article:— New York Times article May 17, Dealing With the Dark Side of Low Interest Rates

Rates are lower today than say a year or two ago because of economic weakness. Rates have been low on a secular basis over the last 10-15 years because of the aging of boomers into the age range that places a high demand on bonds and also because of countries with emerging economies holding large re...
by Northern Flicker
Sat May 16, 2020 8:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fraudulent charges... Getting really tired of the number of times this happens and resulting hassle.
Replies: 56
Views: 4421

Re: Fraudulent charges... Getting really tired of the number of times this happens and resulting hassle.

We manage this as follows: 1. We refuse to possess a debit card, just credit cards and ATM cards. 2. We have one credit card we use exclusively for recurring charges to the card on file with the vendor. That card never leaves the house and is never used for 1-off purchases. This minimizes the odds o...
by Northern Flicker
Sat May 16, 2020 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond ETFs: Market Price vs NAV
Replies: 15
Views: 742

Re: Bond ETFs: Market Price vs NAV

In my experience, ETF pricing tends to be of higher quality than mutual fund NAVs. In the interview, Yao Zheng makes the case that it is far from easy to tell whether the ETF market price or NAV was more a more accurate reflection of value. ... So, it is hard to tell whether ETF prices or NAVs are ...
by Northern Flicker
Sat May 16, 2020 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond ETFs: Market Price vs NAV
Replies: 15
Views: 742

Re: Bond ETFs: Market Price vs NAV

(Why does this conflict of interest exist only with bonds? Do investment banks not hold inventories of stocks?) I don't believe ETFs are terrible. But it certainly is interesting how various "gotchas" have emerged over time. With a mutual fund, you get the NAV at the market close, period. With an E...
by Northern Flicker
Sat May 16, 2020 2:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity HSA Investment
Replies: 27
Views: 2820

Re: Fidelity HSA Investment

In that situation, if you are not yet 59.5, HSA space is more valuable, at least until you are 59.5 as it can be withdrawn before you are 59.5.
by Northern Flicker
Fri May 15, 2020 5:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity HSA Investment
Replies: 27
Views: 2820

Re: Fidelity HSA Investment

Some choose to place the higher growth elements of the portfolio here as it is the most tax-advantaged of all... That is not a correct argument. Once you make the contribution and get the deduction, that tax benefit is already received and what remains is the behavior of the investment and future w...
by Northern Flicker
Fri May 15, 2020 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond ETFs: Market Price vs NAV
Replies: 15
Views: 742

Bond ETFs: Market Price vs NAV

U of Washington finance professor and leading expert on bond ETFs Yao Zeng was interviewed about the recent steep discount of bond ETF market price to NAV. One point he made that I’ve not seen discussed is that the big banks that function as authorized participants (APs) have a conflict of interest ...
by Northern Flicker
Fri May 15, 2020 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Expected Return" ?
Replies: 44
Views: 2638

Re: "Expected Return" ?

It should be obvious that investors do indeed pick investments according to the return they expect to get (in some vague partly mathematical sense). What is the return you expect to get from US equities? What is the expected value of the probability distribution of the return of US equities over th...
by Northern Flicker
Fri May 15, 2020 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Expected Return" ?
Replies: 44
Views: 2638

Re: "Expected Return" ?

The most important point here is that expected return is a precisely defined mathematical concept. In mathematics, it is not uncommon for common language words to be used as the name of a precise technical concept. It is important not assume that the common language definition will coincide with the...
by Northern Flicker
Fri May 15, 2020 2:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity HSA Investment
Replies: 27
Views: 2820

Re: Fidelity HSA Investment

Some choose to place the higher growth elements of the portfolio here as it is the most tax-advantaged of all... That is not a correct argument. Once you make the contribution and get the deduction, that tax benefit is already received and what remains is the behavior of the investment and future w...
by Northern Flicker
Fri May 15, 2020 1:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 401k which international fund would be best or includes most of the market?
Replies: 7
Views: 538

Re: 401k which international fund would be best or includes most of the market?

I have only had this account since February, so I can't actually see why my return rate is on the fund yet. When I looked at the target date fund it seemed like it had more bonds and that is what concerned me since I learned bonds don't grow much. The return rate you will see should not influence y...
by Northern Flicker
Fri May 15, 2020 1:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is total market weighted index best?
Replies: 61
Views: 4276

Re: Why is total market weighted index best?

I don’t think the total market offers a dramatic benefit over the S&P500, and some even prefer just holding the S&P500. But returns could be identical and one could still offer an improved diversification over the other. The main purpose of diversification is to reduce risk or improve risk-adjusted ...
by Northern Flicker
Fri May 15, 2020 12:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Selling home - low ball negotiation
Replies: 145
Views: 12049

Re: Selling home - low ball negotiation

I'd certainly negotiate and try to move this towards a deal. Part of what you may want to negotiate/stipulate is the house is being sold as-is. So in exchange for you accepting a lower sale price, it would be a pass/fail inspection with no opportunity to ask for more money off because of what they ...
by Northern Flicker
Thu May 14, 2020 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is total market weighted index best?
Replies: 61
Views: 4276

Re: Why is total market weighted index best?

thanks for the replies. To take it a step further. There is a negligible difference between total market index and s&p 500. Thus the bottom 4500 (or whatever the real number is) are essentially irrelevant. By extension, it is better to own the top 10-15 companies vs the bottom 4500. When you pare i...
by Northern Flicker
Wed May 13, 2020 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is total market weighted index best?
Replies: 61
Views: 4276

Re: Why is total market weighted index best?

thanks for the replies. To take it a step further. There is a negligible difference between total market index and s&p 500. Thus the bottom 4500 (or whatever the real number is) are essentially irrelevant. By extension, it is better to own the top 10-15 companies vs the bottom 4500. When you pare i...
by Northern Flicker
Wed May 13, 2020 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Growth Stock as Bond Substitutes?... Malkiel vs. Swedroe
Replies: 23
Views: 5111

Re: Dividend Growth Stock as Bond Substitutes?... Malkiel vs. Swedroe

In his book A Random Walk Down Wall Street Malkiel designs portfolios in which bonds can be substituted for dividend growth stocks. This seems inconsistent with advice given by Swedroe, who I find makes a more convincing argument about the risks of this 'strategy.' http://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-a...
by Northern Flicker
Wed May 13, 2020 2:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: International Equity Fund Placement
Replies: 13
Views: 1061

Re: International Equity Fund Placement

Not a very good option of funds could mean a great many things. As a general rule of thumb, you are better off investing in a retirement account over a taxable account until total costs in the retirement account exceed 1.7%. Bogleheads sometimes go to extremes over the expense ratios, but sometimes...