Search found 4350 matches

by Northern Flicker
Mon Aug 19, 2019 1:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Close on first home on Wednesday, might not take possession until 30 days... advice please
Replies: 39
Views: 2353

Re: Close on first home on Wednesday, might not take possession until 30 days... advice please

There should have been a deposit, walkthroughs, etc. I think it is too late and I would just hope for the best. Also likely a bad idea. My belief is that there should be an occupancy after closing agreement in the sales agreement which explicitly states that it is not a landlord-tenant arrangement....
by Northern Flicker
Mon Aug 19, 2019 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total market index fund and recency
Replies: 14
Views: 625

Re: Total market index fund and recency

So here is my big question. Are the arguments in favor of buying the total market a result of greater understanding, or are they the results of recency? The arguments in favor of the total market have been the same for decades. Nothing has changed. The slice and dice strategy you describe started b...
by Northern Flicker
Mon Aug 19, 2019 12:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Managed fund vs index fund- will danoff.
Replies: 12
Views: 575

Re: Managed fund vs index fund- will danoff.

The contrafund was created to invest in stocks that were out of favor but that were companies with good business models, good management, etc so that there were good prospects for a turnaround. As such, it was a value fund traditionally. Currently it is a large-cap growth fund. Was this a permanent ...
by Northern Flicker
Mon Aug 19, 2019 12:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Close on first home on Wednesday, might not take possession until 30 days... advice please
Replies: 39
Views: 2353

Re: Close on first home on Wednesday, might not take possession until 30 days... advice please

You should make them sign a no-cost lease (since they are basically renting it from you albeit at no cost). This is likely a terrible idea. The realtor should have had the appropriate paperwork executed to allow occupancy after closing, spelling out the terms. Executing a lease likely would disqual...
by Northern Flicker
Sat Aug 17, 2019 2:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best secure email to use instead of gmail?
Replies: 51
Views: 4586

Re: Best secure email to use instead of gmail?

Considering how often you will be emailing someone else's Gmail account, I think it's a pointless thing to worry about.
That is certainly a problem, but if everyone takes that view, then it becomes self-fulfilling, which is where we are now.
by Northern Flicker
Sat Aug 17, 2019 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not invest in sector ETFs?
Replies: 31
Views: 2001

Re: Why not invest in sector ETFs?

I have read and understand why you guys don't support investing in ETFs such as tech or REIT, but what's the worst that could happen with a healthcare, utilities, or consumer staples one? A possible recession doesn't really seem like a big enough reason to me since pretty much everything would be a...
by Northern Flicker
Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury 2-10 year yield curve has inverted!
Replies: 104
Views: 9226

Re: Treasury 2-10 year yield curve has inverted!

It doesn't as that is past. Going forward borrowing at a lower rate pays off the old higher rate. It's like refinancing; it's time to issue 100 year bonds. Which is why I said the govt can redo the debt but not actually pay down debt by borrowing to pay it off. Most of the nat’l debt is in t-bills,...
by Northern Flicker
Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best secure email to use instead of gmail?
Replies: 51
Views: 4586

Re: Best secure email to use instead of gmail?

Gmail is arguably more secure than any other email service. You get the benefit of the one of the best cyber security teams in the industry for free. You can lock down a Google account by switching to Yubikey-based two factor authentication. If you think you’re a target you can enable their advance...
by Northern Flicker
Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset location: bonds belong in taxable
Replies: 36
Views: 3064

Re: Asset location: bonds belong in taxable

Yes, pension payments alone will put me in that tax bracket. Then, do you want a high balance in trad IRAs that force you to take RMDs, realizing even more income, or do you want the control only to realize income you need to spend? You need to model your spending needs and RMDs to get an accurate ...
by Northern Flicker
Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Use Vanguard MM Prime for cash rather than local bank?
Replies: 69
Views: 6640

Re: Use Vanguard MM Prime for cash rather than local bank?

If the gross yields (I.e. yields before ER is subtracted in order to calculate SEC yield) of Vanguard money market funds accurately reflect risk, then the Prime money fund will have a lower risk-adjusted return than the Federal MMF or Treasury MMF due to the higher expense ratio, which is higher for...
by Northern Flicker
Fri Aug 16, 2019 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset location: bonds belong in taxable
Replies: 36
Views: 3064

Re: Asset location: bonds belong in taxable

Federal income tax: current 0.37, retirement 0.24 Medicare investment income surcharge: current 0.038, retirement 0.038 Capital gains tax: current 0.2, retirement 0.15 State income tax: current 0.103, retirement 0.093 Are you sure you will be in a 24% regular income bracket in retirement? Retirees ...
by Northern Flicker
Fri Aug 16, 2019 3:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Paralysis
Replies: 16
Views: 3214

Re: Paralysis

Choosing an asset allocation you can stick with and staying the course is the most important thing.
by Northern Flicker
Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year treasury yield drops below 2% for the first time in history
Replies: 41
Views: 5313

Re: 30 year treasury yield drops below 2% for the first time in history

There can't really be any such thing as a "savings glut". Savings is created by debt. If there is a savings glut then there must also be a debt glut. The sum of the left side of the balance sheet always equals the sum of the right side. I think “savings glut” is economist-speak for high demand for ...
by Northern Flicker
Fri Aug 16, 2019 12:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury 2-10 year yield curve has inverted!
Replies: 104
Views: 9226

Re: Treasury 2-10 year yield curve has inverted!

J G Bankerton wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:56 pm
Northern Flicker wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:46 pm
Bonds are up if one owns them.
This is backwards.
If I have a bond and rates fall my bond is worth more because its higher rate doesn't change.
How does that affect the level of the national debt?
by Northern Flicker
Fri Aug 16, 2019 12:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lawsuit suggests MIT allowed Fidelity to pack retirement plans with high-fee funds
Replies: 54
Views: 4437

Re: Lawsuit suggests MIT allowed Fidelity to pack retirement plans with high-fee funds

Having done a bit more reading on this, Fidelity has been making donations to MIT since at least 2001, totaling about $23MM by 2016. I’m not clear when the 401(k) relationship, began, however. The bottom line is that MIT should never accept such a donation, although it would not be the only example...
by Northern Flicker
Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Pharmacist to Data Analyst Role
Replies: 30
Views: 2402

Re: Pharmacist to Data Analyst Role

An MS in Statistics or related would be ideal. When I was getting my PhD there were several MS students from different fields (Food Science, Psychology, Geology, even Philosophy!) going back to get an MS to change careers. They all have really good jobs now. Any reputable universities near you? I b...
by Northern Flicker
Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury 2-10 year yield curve has inverted!
Replies: 104
Views: 9226

Re: Treasury 2-10 year yield curve has inverted!

Bonds are up if one owns them. Now is the time to pay off the national debt with cheap money. This is backwards. It is cheap for the govt to borrow when rates are low. If you mean the govt should refinance its debt when rates are low, that is what it normally does. In fact it always refinances it’s...
by Northern Flicker
Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should long-term investors ignore interim bond fund value changes when calculating asset allocations?
Replies: 10
Views: 774

Re: Should long-term investors ignore interim bond fund value changes when calculating asset allocations?

What is in the original posting is not correct thinking. If rates fall when a bond is very close to maturity, the change in value is very minimal, so there is no significant change in value of the portfolio because a bond matures. A bond that has appreciated from interest rates falling will graduall...
by Northern Flicker
Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Did I do a smart or dumb thing
Replies: 20
Views: 3176

Re: Did I do a smart or dumb thing

Do I understand correctly that once the bond allocation is determined that I should “fill up” my Traditional and Inherited IRA first with bonds and that is there is any room left to buy my remaining bond AA in my Roth? Also, do I understand correctly that within the IRA’s that I have no capital gai...
by Northern Flicker
Thu Aug 15, 2019 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury 2-10 year yield curve has inverted!
Replies: 104
Views: 9226

Re: Treasury 2-10 year yield curve has inverted!

An inverted yield curve is not only indicative of increased risk of a recession, but can be another driver of a recession. Banks borrow short and lend long. A flattened or inverted yield curve makes it less profitable and potentially even unprofitable to lend. A falloff in credit can lead to a reces...
by Northern Flicker
Thu Aug 15, 2019 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lawsuit suggests MIT allowed Fidelity to pack retirement plans with high-fee funds
Replies: 54
Views: 4437

Re: Lawsuit suggests MIT allowed Fidelity to pack retirement plans with high-fee funds

There are a few plausible reasons why Fidelity and/or the Johnsons may have wanted to contribute to MIT, aside from this issue: They should not donate $5M to a lucrative customer whose executives who decide on retirement plan providers are themselves evaluated by how much $ they bring in. MIT execs...
by Northern Flicker
Thu Aug 15, 2019 2:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Did I do a smart or dumb thing
Replies: 20
Views: 3176

Re: Did I do a smart or dumb thing

Only comment is to check the history of capital gains distributions (there should be none) and percent dividends for SPTM that are qualified in comparison to other total market ETFs. Some State Street ETFs have not been as tax-efficient as similar iShares or Vanguard ETFs. If this holding is in a ta...
by Northern Flicker
Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lawsuit suggests MIT allowed Fidelity to pack retirement plans with high-fee funds
Replies: 54
Views: 4437

Re: Lawsuit suggests MIT allowed Fidelity to pack retirement plans with high-fee funds

I think as long as they have low ER index funds available, it is fine. It is not fine to donate $5M to the university to keep the business. If that is a de facto marketing expense, then it was employees’ money effectively being kicked back to MIT. Not sure if MIT or Fido or both are culpable there.
by Northern Flicker
Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:10 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Things to see in Walla Walla, WA?
Replies: 15
Views: 826

Re: Things to see in Walla Walla, WA?

There is a massive amount of overpriced wine. Is there wine that is not overpriced? Where does one go to get properly priced wine? Is it in a box? It’s all relative, but Washington wines from other areas (Wahluke slope, Horseheaven Hills, Red Mountain) are generally better than Walla Walla wines at...
by Northern Flicker
Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Statistics used to analyze S&P500
Replies: 18
Views: 1482

Re: Statistics used to analyze S&P500

I want to find out correlations/anti correlations of various assets with the S&P500 over time. For example, real estate, gold, bonds etc relation on S&P measured though out time adjusting for inflation. I'm thinking time series. But I'm sure I'm missing something because there is a whole field call...
by Northern Flicker
Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Things to see in Walla Walla, WA?
Replies: 15
Views: 826

Re: Things to see in Walla Walla, WA?

There is a massive amount of overpriced wine.
by Northern Flicker
Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lawsuit suggests MIT allowed Fidelity to pack retirement plans with high-fee funds
Replies: 54
Views: 4437

Re: Lawsuit suggests MIT allowed Fidelity to pack retirement plans with high-fee funds

Just think, if the Fidelity ZERO funds had existed, those funds could have had infinitely higher fees than others they could have chosen More to the point, the Fidelity behavior is an example of why I don’t trust that the Fidelity Zero funds are actually free. To what behavior are you referring, an...
by Northern Flicker
Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lawsuit suggests MIT allowed Fidelity to pack retirement plans with high-fee funds
Replies: 54
Views: 4437

Re: Lawsuit suggests MIT allowed Fidelity to pack retirement plans with high-fee funds

Just think, if the Fidelity ZERO funds had existed, those funds could have had infinitely higher fees than others they could have chosen
More to the point, the Fidelity behavior is an example of why I don’t trust that the Fidelity Zero funds are actually free.
by Northern Flicker
Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury 2-10 year yield curve has inverted!
Replies: 104
Views: 9226

Re: Treasury 2-10 year yield curve has inverted!

Still doesn’t mean they both were not reacting to the same 3rd event. Traders have servers collocated on exchanges. Their execution is much faster than the time it takes for you to get the information on a news site.
by Northern Flicker
Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap
Replies: 214
Views: 11367

Re: Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap

s that really true? It's fine for a young person accumulating, but the three fund portfolio should carry a health warning for a retiree of modest means. Megacap index investing hit a brick wall in the early 2000s because the exposure to richly valued tech made it top heavy. It's Total Market in nam...
by Northern Flicker
Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury 2-10 year yield curve has inverted!
Replies: 104
Views: 9226

Re: Treasury 2-10 year yield curve has inverted!

On CNBC they are running a 2-10 year bond ticker. They have inverted for the first time since 2007. Some talkin heads say a recession is coming. The 10 year is where stock money goes during a recession was the reasoning. The DOW dropped 150 points when the inversion happened. It appears many are no...
by Northern Flicker
Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap
Replies: 214
Views: 11367

Re: Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap

Sorry, I do not agree. We know factor proponents like to say "TSM does not provide factor exposure." Nevertheless, it is obvious that TSM (Total U.S. Stock Market) holds nearly every U.S. stock including all U.S factor stocks (small-cap, small-cap value, mid-cap, momentum, quality) etc.. Holding sm...
by Northern Flicker
Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Mismatched flooring - discovered halfway through install
Replies: 24
Views: 2115

Re: Mismatched flooring - discovered halfway through install

If the cost is the same from current state to redo bathroom or bedroom, I was just complete with currently purchased flooring, and live with it for a while. You can then decide whether to bear the cost of remedy by redoing the bathroom later. With a neutral or contrasting threshold between the two f...
by Northern Flicker
Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap
Replies: 214
Views: 11367

Re: Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap

I think secular overperformanxe of value or growth has lasted as long as 30 years in the past. The small premium has been negative 30 years, but value hasn't had that bad of a run, TMK. I think any such historical comparison is sensitive to start date, since it will be comparing returns of value an...
by Northern Flicker
Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: what to buy in this market
Replies: 15
Views: 1693

Re: what to buy in this market

Imagine a boy walking his dog. The boy represents earnings, and the dog represents the stock market. The dog may run ahead of the boy. The dog may run behind the boy. The dog may even drag the boy along, one direction or another, for a time. (Squirrel!) Ultimately, however, the dog will be limited ...
by Northern Flicker
Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: what to buy in this market
Replies: 15
Views: 1693

Re: what to buy in this market

Any specific funds/stocks/investment recommendations in the current casino type market with swings triggered by tweets from one person. If govt policies or actions actually are making the market more unpredictable than normal (which is debatable— equity markets are normally unpredictable and volati...
by Northern Flicker
Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap
Replies: 214
Views: 11367

Re: Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap

I entirely agree that if you 'believe in SCV', then you should stick with it and be prepared for a decade of underperformance or longer.
I think secular overperformance of value or growth has lasted as long as 30 years in the past.
by Northern Flicker
Tue Aug 13, 2019 5:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Trying to understand basics of refinancing
Replies: 5
Views: 494

Re: Trying to understand basics of refinancing

If you would sell in 5 years, just stick with the 7-year guaranteed rate ARM. If you might stay 10 more years, you could investigate a refi. Ask the lender for an interest rate for a 30-year fixed where closing costs, including appraisal fee are zero. Then you can compare that rate to your current r...
by Northern Flicker
Tue Aug 13, 2019 5:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: UC Domestic Small Cap Equity = Mid Cap not Small?
Replies: 9
Views: 518

Re: UC Domestic Small Cap Equity = Mid Cap not Small?

Paying down debt as an alternative to investing in bonds is fine. That does not mean you should be 100% stocks. That depends on your risk tolerance and capacity. I won’t say that having debt means you should not be 100% stocks, but I will say that all else equal, your risk capacity is less with the ...
by Northern Flicker
Tue Aug 13, 2019 5:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do burglars steal and use paperwork?
Replies: 34
Views: 3779

Re: Do burglars steal and use paperwork?

Unfortunately, if the paperwork may have been disturbed, you have to treat it as if the data on the paperwork has been compromised, whether or not the physical papers are actually taken, data transcribed, cell phone pics taken or whatever.
by Northern Flicker
Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing large sum into 529 plans wise?
Replies: 17
Views: 1138

Re: Investing large sum into 529 plans wise?

I would only contribute amounts for which you will get a state tax credit. The holding period will be too short for the tax-deferred growth to amount to much. But the downsides are a significant record-keeping overhead to avoid taxes and penalties on withdrawals as well as the risk of not using all ...
by Northern Flicker
Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: UC Domestic Small Cap Equity = Mid Cap not Small?
Replies: 9
Views: 518

Re: UC Domestic Small Cap Equity = Mid Cap not Small?

I'm currently utilizing student loans as a "reverse/negative bond" rather than including bonds in the allocation (I'm 31 y/o and fairly aggressive), but plan to add bonds in as time goes on and loans are paid off. Are you suggesting that having student loans is equivalent to holding bonds in your p...
by Northern Flicker
Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard ongoing glitches, August 12-13, 2019]
Replies: 256
Views: 14141

Re: [Why did my fund suddenly drop in value?]

I find it interesting that someone didn't check numbers before publishing and give a "Not OK, delay changing the numbers before publishing and updating the web site." Or even at least 2 people have to look. I wouldn't want Vanguard to be in control of nuclear launch codes. It is certainly better to...
by Northern Flicker
Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is this 25% savings?
Replies: 67
Views: 4879

Re: Is this 25% savings?

I agree it is 20% off. Suggestion: advertise as “Save $40 by registering today”. That’s what actually matters anyway.
by Northern Flicker
Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is there a "good" bond fund in my 401(k)?
Replies: 8
Views: 580

Re: Is there a "good" bond fund in my 401(k)?

Need also to get the current crediting rate for the stable value fund. Looks like it may be around 2.25%. Also how often does it change? Some due diligence for the stable value fund would be to understand any liquidity/withdrawal restrictions and when they are in effect. Also to understand if there ...
by Northern Flicker
Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio bullish on China (China market cap to overtake US in 2030?)
Replies: 43
Views: 3233

Re: Ray Dalio bullish on China (China market cap to overtake US in 2030?)

That graph shows Chinese equities sharply outperforming US equities since about 2012. I’ve tried to replicate that on Morningstar, but could not. For instance: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=vtsax&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A11%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22showNav%22%3Atrue%2C...
by Northern Flicker
Mon Aug 12, 2019 4:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help in choosing my Bond Fund for my asset allocation.
Replies: 18
Views: 1581

Re: Help in choosing my Bond Fund for my asset allocation.

If you reinvest dividends automatically in an IRA and a dividend is reinvested in vtsax in the IRA (manually or automatically) within 30 days of a tax-loss harvest sale of vtsax in a taxable account, a wash sale would be triggered.
by Northern Flicker
Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Received a $17,000 medical bill! Can we negotiate?
Replies: 91
Views: 9638

Re: Received a $17,000 medical bill! Can we negotiate?

“Insurance plans can’t make you pay more in copayments or coinsurance if you get emergency care from an out-of-network hospital. They also can’t require you to get prior approval before getting emergency room services from a provider or hospital outside your plan’s network." Correct. But if a patie...
by Northern Flicker
Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I really do not like using credit cards. Do any of you have a good credit score with no credit cards?
Replies: 246
Views: 5386

Re: Does anyone here have no credit cards? How is that working out for you? Do you have any trouble without them?

If your Visa Debit card is lost or stolen and fraudulent activity occurs, you are protected by Visa's Zero Liability Policy. That means 100 percent protection for you. Whether purchases occur online or off, you pay nothing for fraudulent activity. Well, consumer protection laws already limit your l...
by Northern Flicker
Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help in choosing my Bond Fund for my asset allocation.
Replies: 18
Views: 1581

Re: Help in choosing my Bond Fund for my asset allocation.

ACBPX is an excellent bond fund. Its portfolio may even be superior to a total bond index fund from a diversification perspective. Unfortunately, the expense ratio is higher than is ideal, but not a disaster. The Wells Fargo Stable value fund publishes a worse ER of 0.51%, and that is just to hold a...