Search found 3237 matches

by jalbert
Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone experienced landlords here? Caught some of my tenants renting out rooms. Anything I should do?
Replies: 28
Views: 4710

Re: Anyone experienced landlords here? Caught some of my tenants renting out rooms. Anything I should do?

I'd also be uncomfortable with this personally and would want additional compensation for the risk/wear. I'd also want to approve of the subs. Forgetting your comfort, I would want some extra security deposit on the subs. I think you can reasonably expect more maintenance with more people. Check yo...
by jalbert
Mon Jul 16, 2018 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Tax-Managed Small Cap (VTMSX) an underrated fund?
Replies: 10
Views: 1902

Re: Is Tax-Managed Small Cap (VTMSX) an underrated fund?

A factor regression analysis shows an annualized alpha of 1%. It also, amazingly, has a 0.39 HmL Value load, which is as valuey as most value funds This more shows the lack of statistical significance and generalizability of factor regressions run on non-random, biased samples than it illuminates m...
by jalbert
Mon Jul 16, 2018 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vtip short term tip etf ??
Replies: 10
Views: 390

Re: Vtip short term tip etf ??

Our broker. Bbt. Also, doesn't trade vanguard mutual funds. Any other mutual funds out there on "open" market that deals with short term tips ? If we don't want commission ? Most are not competitive on ER. Fidelity may have a low cost TIPS index mutual fund. If it is not practical to open an accoun...
by jalbert
Mon Jul 16, 2018 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 67
Views: 3475

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

You can try different historical periods to come to whatever conclusion you want. I believe that for low equity allocations, a shorter duration is preferred due to the inflation risk of IT treasuries. I believe that at high equity allocations, IT treasuries and equities have historically shown enoug...
by jalbert
Mon Jul 16, 2018 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 67
Views: 3475

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

That is not what a Monte Carlo simulation is. It assumes a probability distribution and uses a random number generator and the distribution to generate a time series of simulated outcomes. Drawing randomly from a list of values is equivalent to assuming that that list of values represents the proba...
by jalbert
Mon Jul 16, 2018 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 67
Views: 3475

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

If you do want to use historical data, we can calculate the historical efficient frontier using portfoliovisuslizer going back to 1977 (the limit of the data) for a high equity allocation and either ST or IT treasuries. Setting the min for stocks at 79% and max for stocks at 80% but leaving ST and I...
by jalbert
Mon Jul 16, 2018 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 67
Views: 3475

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

That is not what a Monte Carlo simulation is. It assumes a probability distribution and uses a random number generator and the distribution to generate a time series of simulated outcomes. The value Monte Carlo simulations is limited for investment outcome simulations because we don’t actually know ...
by jalbert
Mon Jul 16, 2018 4:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Have you ever purchased a pricy musical instrument?
Replies: 51
Views: 1952

Re: Have you ever purchased a pricy musical instrument?

Upgrade an instrument when the one you have is neither responsive enough nor capable of producing the sound or tone you are aiming for. You should be able to articulate the limitations of the current instrument clearly. If you upgrade before that happens you may find that you instead run into the sa...
by jalbert
Mon Jul 16, 2018 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 67
Views: 3475

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

Well the yield curve has flattened in recent weeks. I don’t jump from IT to ST or ST to IT with every short-term move in rates on the yield curve. If you are a long-term investor, intermediate treasuries have delivered a premium over short-term treasuries.
by jalbert
Mon Jul 16, 2018 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vtip short term tip etf ??
Replies: 10
Views: 390

Re: Vtip short term tip etf ??

It’s an excellent fund, and an appropriate diversifier for a CD ladder. Ishares STIP would be the main competitor. If your mom would be making regular withdrawals from the fund, a mutual fund is preferable to an ETF since there won’t be a bid-ask spread to worry about, assuming you have commission-f...
by jalbert
Sun Jul 15, 2018 11:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For those of you who handle all the finances, how do you keep your spouse "in the know"
Replies: 96
Views: 11147

Re: For those of you who handle all the finances, how do you keep your spouse "in the know"

Keep all the account logons in Keepass, and share the Keepass database. In your case, I guess you could keep your email logon out of the Keepass database. I don't know what you would do for 2 factor authentication... Keep the passwords in password safes but spouse needs separate logins for all of t...
by jalbert
Sun Jul 15, 2018 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New To Being A Boglehead- Need Help With Last Index Fund!!
Replies: 6
Views: 418

Re: New To Being A Boglehead- Need Help With Last Index Fund!!

I invested in the Vanguard Growth Index Fund Investor Shares, Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares, Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Admiral Shares, Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares. not sure if that changes your answer, but thanks for the advice. Don't assume the recent...
by jalbert
Sun Jul 15, 2018 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New To Being A Boglehead- Need Help With Last Index Fund!!
Replies: 6
Views: 418

Re: New To Being A Boglehead- Need Help With Last Index Fund!!

Hi everyone, I am new to investing, but have picked up a few tips along the way. I have already invested 70 of my 85 k in invest funds with vanguard and would like advice on my last 15k. I want to be very aggressive and have come down to 2 choices- 1) Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund Admi...
by jalbert
Sun Jul 15, 2018 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 67
Views: 3475

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

I have a question: How do we know that the LT treasury market is driven by insurance companies and pension funds? ... I mean... it makes intuitive sense that pensions and annuities would be especially interested in LT treasuries, but do we have any data about who is buying them? I found an article ...
by jalbert
Sun Jul 15, 2018 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 67
Views: 3475

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

What term premium? The current yield curve is very flat for intermediate-term maturities, both nominal and real. It could be argued that the term premium actually is negative... I would gladly hold a bond allocation that is 75% IT treasuries and 25% ST TIPS today before I would hold one that is 100...
by jalbert
Sun Jul 15, 2018 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flat real yield curve
Replies: 7
Views: 1114

Re: Flat real yield curve

Yes, the Fed model is that real rates are driven by the supply and demand for bonds. Economists talk about savings vs investment as opaque language for demand for bonds vs demand for growth investments, and note the high savings rate, which is codespeak for high demand for bonds.
by jalbert
Sun Jul 15, 2018 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 67
Views: 3475

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

If your concern with IT treasuries is inflation, diversify them with TIPS and you can earn the term premium of intermediate bonds while taking less inflation risk than if just holding ST treasuries.

The main benefit of ST treasuries is liquidity.
by jalbert
Sun Jul 15, 2018 3:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on Switching to Target Retirement Funds
Replies: 15
Views: 2096

Re: Thoughts on Switching to Target Retirement Funds

If you won’t be working, I’m not sure a glide path is appropriate. You might move the LifeStrategy fund in taxable space to the stock index funds if the taxes are manageable, and move everything else to LifeStrategy Moderate Allocation. One concern is if you won’t be working, you may be dealing with...
by jalbert
Sun Jul 15, 2018 2:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 67
Views: 3475

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

Paul Volcker demonstrated the tools the Fed has to fight inflation. It is unlikely an increase in inflation would be managed by the Fed like it was in the 1970’s.
by jalbert
Sun Jul 15, 2018 1:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flat real yield curve
Replies: 7
Views: 1114

Flat real yield curve

VAIPX intermediate TIPS, duration is 7.6 years.
SEC (real) yield is 0.61%.

VTAPX short-term TIPS, duration is 2.7 years.
SEC (real) yield is 0.57%.

I guess the market very much expects real rates to fall.
by jalbert
Sun Jul 15, 2018 1:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Logging out 20 acre lot?
Replies: 37
Views: 2445

Re: Logging out 20 acre lot?

So since it's worth less than the mortgage balance, see if you can just hand the keys over to the mortgage holder and walk away. Might want to talk to a lawyer about that considering everything involved including the trust and property taxes, etc. Seems like the easiest and perhaps most financially...
by jalbert
Sun Jul 15, 2018 1:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 67
Views: 3475

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

Good graphic. Clearly shows the value of longer-term during a market crash. That said, most people do not advocate LT treasuries as their bond allocation, despite their superior performance during a crash. Do you agree with that advice? Some people advocate for it for portfolios with high equity al...
by jalbert
Sun Jul 15, 2018 12:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 62
Views: 7301

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

As to currency risk, don't forget it goes both ways... That is a specious argument actually. By definition any risk can go both ways. A "risk" that could not cut both ways is called a liability, not a risk. The question is whether the risk either is rewarded or diversifies other risks. The long-ter...
by jalbert
Sat Jul 14, 2018 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 67
Views: 3475

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

You can examine the last 3 bear markets. They started in Oct 1987, March 2000, and October 2007 if you take the prior market peak as starting point of the downturn. In all three, intermediate treasuries helped you more than short-term treasuries. Short-term treasuries are not a bad choice for a bond...
by jalbert
Sat Jul 14, 2018 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 67
Views: 3475

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

danielc wrote:
Sat Jul 14, 2018 6:58 pm
jalbert wrote:
Sat Jul 14, 2018 6:41 pm
What probability distributions for future returns are being used to generate simulated data in the Monte Carlo simulations?
Historical values. PV's dataset seems to begin in 1972.
That is not a Monte Carlo simulation.
by jalbert
Sat Jul 14, 2018 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 67
Views: 3475

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

What probability distributions for future returns are being used to generate simulated data in the Monte Carlo simulations?
by jalbert
Sat Jul 14, 2018 6:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Advice on IT Certification program
Replies: 93
Views: 3583

Re: Advice on IT Certification program

2) I have a BSEE and MSEE when I started working as the Unix System Administrator. So, even though I do not know the operating system, I know A) Microprocessor Design and Assembly Languages B) Digital Logic Design C) Transistor Design D) Computer network I could say that my foundation is more solid...
by jalbert
Sat Jul 14, 2018 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 130
Views: 7870

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

Most stocks are for companies that already are levered (issuing corporate bonds or taking on other business loans).
by jalbert
Sat Jul 14, 2018 3:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you trade experiences in your youth for early retirement
Replies: 81
Views: 5066

Re: Would you trade experiences in your youth for early retirement

Anyone who figures out that richness of life experience does not have to equate with high cost may be able to have both.
by jalbert
Sat Jul 14, 2018 3:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What rate of return are you using for retirement projections?
Replies: 99
Views: 8722

Re: What rate of return are you using for retirement projections?

Ohmigosh, THANK YOU jebmke and TimeLord!! Reading through this thread, I was starting to wonder if I had maybe "missed the memo" that I was "supposed" to be keeping these spreadsheets, with assumed rates of return, etc. all these years.  You only need that if you are targeting a particular or appro...
by jalbert
Sat Jul 14, 2018 3:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Advice on IT Certification program
Replies: 93
Views: 3583

Re: Advice on IT Certification program

1) I disagreed. I was a Unix System Administrator for a large oil company. I never took any course in the operating system. I read all the books on Unix System Administration in order to do my job. Not every self-trained system administrator develops their skills to the level that you did. jalbert,...
by jalbert
Sat Jul 14, 2018 1:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Be Careful Using Mailboxes
Replies: 50
Views: 5598

Re: Be Careful Using Mailboxes

Anytime you pay someone by paper check you risk the check being deposited by phone camera or scan and the paper check not being shredded for disposal when done. Who knows where it will end up? I always use a bank account online billpay (if a check, it won't have my acct#) or credit card if possible ...
by jalbert
Sat Jul 14, 2018 1:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Advice on IT Certification program
Replies: 93
Views: 3583

Re: Advice on IT Certification program

1) I disagreed. I was a Unix System Administrator for a large oil company. I never took any course in the operating system. I read all the books on Unix System Administration in order to do my job.
Not every self-trained system administrator develops their skills to the level that you did.
by jalbert
Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Advice on IT Certification program
Replies: 93
Views: 3583

Re: Advice on IT Certification program

It is a limited level of training. For instance, there are limitations to the benefits of a course on Linux administration for someone who has not studied the fundamental principles of operating systems. It would be like taking a course on introduction to surgery without the fundamental science educ...
by jalbert
Fri Jul 13, 2018 5:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question for pre-ACA Early Retirees and pre-ACA solo folks
Replies: 33
Views: 1841

Re: Question for pre-ACA Early Retirees and pre-ACA solo folks

I know of no ACA compatible insurance where the out of pocket max is more than about $7.5K/person. I've seen some plans with aggregate family oop-max that is 2x individual oop-max, but the plan only recognizes a family oop-max for an individual who is enrolled as part of a married couple or family....
by jalbert
Fri Jul 13, 2018 4:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What rate of return are you using for retirement projections?
Replies: 99
Views: 8722

Re: What rate of return are you using for retirement projections?

I'm 56 years old, and have been planning diligently for an anticipated retirement at age 60. I use a 30-year retirement duration for my planning purposes (60 to 90 years of age). My question: what rate of return do some of you use when you're looking at how long your nest egg will last? I struggle ...
by jalbert
Fri Jul 13, 2018 4:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question for pre-ACA Early Retirees and pre-ACA solo folks
Replies: 33
Views: 1841

Re: Question for pre-ACA Early Retirees and pre-ACA solo folks

As an actionable example: In year 2 of retirement, I went over the ACA Subsidy Cliff, and also had a nasty health disaster to the tune of $30,000 or more. As a result. I was "dinged" $30,000 for ACA back premiums. And, to make matters worse, a large portion of the $30,000 out of pocket medical expe...
by jalbert
Fri Jul 13, 2018 3:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question for pre-ACA Early Retirees and pre-ACA solo folks
Replies: 33
Views: 1841

Re: Question for pre-ACA Early Retirees

It is incorrect to say there were no protections for pre-existing conditions prior to the ACA. In 1996 ERISA was amended to include the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA). A group plan could not exclude pre-existing conditions if the individual had at least 12 months of pre...
by jalbert
Fri Jul 13, 2018 11:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Logging out 20 acre lot?
Replies: 37
Views: 2445

Re: Logging out 20 acre lot?

We’ve cleaned out the house and have it on the market to sell, the realtor doesn’t think it will sell at the current price. Lowering the price to where she advises will be less than the outstanding loan. So, it truly is walking away from the parents loan. The idea behind trying to log the property ...
by jalbert
Fri Jul 13, 2018 1:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in rising interest rate environment
Replies: 12
Views: 1035

Re: Bonds in rising interest rate environment

I enjoy the forum but am only slowly being schooled. Many of the portfolios suggested have an intermediate term bond index fund as a prime component. Starting a couple of years ago when interest rates were close to zero it was predictable that interest rates would rise. This will likely continue fo...
by jalbert
Thu Jul 12, 2018 3:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question for pre-ACA Early Retirees and pre-ACA solo folks
Replies: 33
Views: 1841

Re: Question for pre-ACA Early Retirees

I think the real issues were lurking beneath. Before ACA, if you developed an incurable long-term and/or expensive condition, the insursance company would just not renew your policy. You could get a new policy, but pre-existing conditions would not be covered say for 12 months. That was enough time ...
by jalbert
Thu Jul 12, 2018 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 62
Views: 7301

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

Obviously we only have historical data to look at but I think it is foolish to think the future will continue to resemble the past. You have a rapidly aging US population (even more so if immigration is reduced), technology that is providing advantages to many countries, an education system that ha...
by jalbert
Wed Jul 11, 2018 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VTSMX vs VITSX
Replies: 10
Views: 709

Re: VTSMX vs VITSX

There are only four funds in my retirement account that are international: RNPGX, FPMAX, FSIVX, OANIX. Which one is recommended from this list for the three-fund portfolio? Also, for bonds, these are the only available funds: BRHYX, FSITX, MWTIX, VBIRX. Apart from these, there are less than 10 fund...
by jalbert
Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market cap weighting vs rebalancing
Replies: 12
Views: 816

Re: Market cap weighting vs rebalancing

After all that setup, finally the question: is there any fundamental reason rebalance a the level of granularity of stocks vs bonds etc, but not at some other level? Yes, there is. The most impactful driver of risk and return of a stock and investment grade bond portfolio is the ratio of stocks to ...
by jalbert
Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 62
Views: 7301

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

Many investors may be either too young or too old to remember the period from 1971 to 1988 (nearly two full decades) during which a globally diversified equity portfolio complex completely dominated a US-only equity portfolio. From a secular perspective, I think there are 5 "performance" periods fo...
by jalbert
Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 62
Views: 7301

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

Thanks for sharing them. The MSCI EAFE index goes back to 1969. The emerging markets index is since the late 1980’s and only resembles the current index since the mid-90’s. I assume before about 1994 the graphs show EAFE data for ex-US? For all periods the index I used is the MSCI WORLD ex USA inde...
by jalbert
Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 17987

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

I’m not relying on google or biggerpockets. Cap rate is easily defined as net operating income divided by property value. This is confirmed on page 109 of “Investment Analysis for Real Estate Decisions” 6th ed. by Kolbe & Greer, both of whom are faculty members in the graduate program in real estate...
by jalbert
Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 62
Views: 7301

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

Thanks for sharing them. The MSCI EAFE index goes back to 1969. The emerging markets index is since the late 1980’s and only resembles the current index since the mid-90’s. I assume before about 1994 the graphs show EAFE data for ex-US?
by jalbert
Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Silver ETF [How does it track the spot price?]
Replies: 17
Views: 914

Re: Silver ETF [How does it track the spot price?]

It is unlikely that silver offers any long-term real (inflation-corrected) return. Over the long-term, it should just almost track inflation (it has no revenue stream to cover storage costs). Stocks are fractional ownership in a business producing some goods or services. They are thus likely to have...
by jalbert
Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 17987

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

Don't say cap rate. That term has zero value and no use for single family homes/condos, nor 2-4 unit deals.  A correctly calculated cap rate has value for any real estate investment. Cap rate is net of expenses, and you may not know the expected expenses for small properties, hence the difficulty. ...