Search found 54 matches

by gneeby
Sun Jul 29, 2018 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Paper on Roth Conversion Analysis
Replies: 123
Views: 9849

Re: Vanguard Paper on Roth Conversion Analysis

The I-orp calculator is actually quite versatile, it just doesn't allow for inflation of the tax brackets or standard deduction, but that doesn't seem to change the results too much. PS. To answer your question about why your working tax rates don't matter to the IRA you will notice i-orp doesn't a...
by gneeby
Mon Jun 18, 2018 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: i-ORP: Any way to force tax deferred savings?
Replies: 8
Views: 850

Re: i-ORP: Any way to force tax deferred savings?

I have been running scenarios in i-ORP and found that there is no way to force savings into my 401k. It actually puts all my annual contributions into my Roth and taxable. That might be fine for optimization of taxes, but it causes an issue with matching. I contribute $24,500 and get a $17,000 matc...
by gneeby
Sat Jun 16, 2018 9:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: add to DW 401k while withdrawing from (self) 403b?
Replies: 19
Views: 986

Re: add to DW 401k while withdrawing from (self) 403b?

All, I'll be retiring in a few months. DW will continue to work and has a good 401k plan. I'm eligible for SS benefits but am not at FRA and will defer benefits until 70, anyway. I don't have any pensions to speak of. ($3K/year starting in a couple years.) We'll need to supplement her income with w...
by gneeby
Sat Jun 16, 2018 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: i-ORP: Any way to force tax deferred savings?
Replies: 8
Views: 850

Re: i-ORP: Any way to force tax deferred savings?

I have been running scenarios in i-ORP and found that there is no way to force savings into my 401k. It actually puts all my annual contributions into my Roth and taxable. That might be fine for optimization of taxes, but it causes an issue with matching. I contribute $24,500 and get a $17,000 matc...
by gneeby
Sun Jun 10, 2018 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with ORP--Contributions going to After Tax Account
Replies: 3
Views: 321

Re: Help with ORP--Contributions going to After Tax Account

Another possibility: if you tell ORP "this is the maximum annual contribution to tax deferred accounts" then any amount available above that must go into after-tax. Have you tried leaving that cell blank, or using 999, or other values? ORP normally will direct contributions as specified but it rese...
by gneeby
Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with Drawdown Strategy
Replies: 5
Views: 851

Re: Help with Drawdown Strategy

I believe i-ORP always draws down first the account that you told it will have the least returns or gains. Did you tell i-ORP that your tax-deferred account had the lowest expected return? ORP is way more subtle than this. ORP withdrawals reflect both savings account rates of return and the prevail...
by gneeby
Thu May 24, 2018 6:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do I tell if Roth conversions are worth the trouble?
Replies: 76
Views: 6772

Re: How do I tell if Roth conversions are worth the trouble?

"You have run into a fundamental ORP assumption: "Retirement spending is constant throughout retirement, indexed to inflation." FWIW - There are no less than 5 spending options to choose from with ORP during drawdown. You can select whichever you like or compare all of them within a few minutes by ...
by gneeby
Wed May 23, 2018 12:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do I tell if Roth conversions are worth the trouble?
Replies: 76
Views: 6772

Re: How do I tell if Roth conversions are worth the trouble?

Funny, I was just trying to use iORP again today. When I put in my numbers and selected the 24% tax bracket, it errored out. The error was "model x will not solve, possibly because your Roth conversion tax bracket limit may be over-constricting your taxable income." I tried it several ways, but cou...
by gneeby
Tue May 22, 2018 11:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do I tell if Roth conversions are worth the trouble?
Replies: 76
Views: 6772

Re: How do I tell if Roth conversions are worth the trouble?

"It told me that generally No Conversion and Conversion to top of 22% are a wash. It told me that Conersions to the top of the 24% bracket is best by about 3%-6% in nearly all cases." I would propose that you make sure that your set earnings in each fund type ( taxable, Roth, tax deferred) is equal...
by gneeby
Wed Apr 04, 2018 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: KF Annual Expense Based Personal Finance Strategy
Replies: 149
Views: 7835

Re: KF Annual Expense Based Personal Finance Strategy

(One caveat — I am not sure what withdrawal rate ORP assumes. But it shows account balances, so you can just use the balances it produces rather than the disposable income estimate.) Where on the i-orp.com web site do you find that odious phrase "withdrawal rate". Withdrawal rate is something assum...
by gneeby
Sat Jan 27, 2018 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opinions on 65 year old's portfolio
Replies: 19
Views: 2754

Re: Opinions on 65 year old's portfolio

Buster - I have found I-ORP's modeling to be less than satisfactory when the bulk of one's assets are in tax deferred accounts. I ran a number of scenarios in advance of a Minnesota BH presentation/discussion regarding retirement calculators. I-ORP worked well with many scenarios in terms of Roth c...
by gneeby
Sun Dec 31, 2017 9:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you see a meaningful change in your income with new Tax Bill?
Replies: 266
Views: 25487

Re: Do you see a meaningful change in your income with new Tax Bill?

Not being an I-Orp expert, I wonder if it's possible to input the updated rates manually, or must we wait for an update? i-orp has been updated with the new tax tables. It appears that the pull down tax bracket selection for "IRA to Roth IRA Conversions" have not been updated. Thanks, I think that ...
by gneeby
Wed Dec 27, 2017 9:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you see a meaningful change in your income with new Tax Bill?
Replies: 266
Views: 25487

Re: Do you see a meaningful change in your income with new Tax Bill?

Diogenes wrote:
Sat Dec 23, 2017 7:38 am
Not being an I-Orp expert, I wonder if it's possible to input the updated rates manually, or must we wait for an update?
i-orp has been updated with the new tax tables.
by gneeby
Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why ORP-I suggests you spending down aft-tax saving 1st?
Replies: 29
Views: 2949

Re: Why ORP-I suggests you spending down aft-tax saving 1st?

randomguy wrote: Since most investors look to use an overall AA to limit taxes, I-ORP should have a way to use a overall AA not an overriding individual AA for each account. I-ORP could then attempt to optimize the AA within each account type. This suggestion has been explored and it didn't work ou...
by gneeby
Mon Aug 28, 2017 6:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How I use I-ORP, and who shouldn't
Replies: 155
Views: 20316

Re: How I use I-ORP, and who shouldn't

It complained something about null value. I thought I had zero of all areas I wasn't sure of, plus skipping the 3-peat. Maybe I was running on my iPad. My daughter said a lot of programs are not tested on iPad. I had that problem with Airbnb on iPad recently, but once I loaded the app on iPhone, I ...
by gneeby
Sun Aug 27, 2017 2:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How I use I-ORP, and who shouldn't
Replies: 155
Views: 20316

Re: How I use I-ORP, and who shouldn't

It complained something about null value. I thought I had zero of all areas I wasn't sure of, plus skipping the 3-peat. Maybe I was running on my iPad. My daughter said a lot of programs are not tested on iPad. I had that problem with Airbnb on iPad recently, but once I loaded the app on iPhone, I ...
by gneeby
Sun Aug 27, 2017 10:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How I use I-ORP, and who shouldn't
Replies: 155
Views: 20316

Re: How I use I-ORP, and who shouldn't

If the marginal rates shown by tools such as Tools and calculators - Personal_finance_toolbox or TurboTax, etc., match the rates shown by i-orp then one has little reason for concern. If those rates are significantly different, one has good reason to question i-orp's suggestion. As ORP's keeper and...
by gneeby
Tue Aug 22, 2017 10:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How I use I-ORP, and who shouldn't
Replies: 155
Views: 20316

Re: How I use I-ORP, and who shouldn't

munemaker wrote:
Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:54 am
Not sure why i-ORP would recommend less income over more. Still playing with it and learning, so am not ready to email the author yet.
ORP defaults blank Social Security starting ages to the Full Retirement Age, an arbitrary choice. Social Security starting age is not part of the optimization.
by gneeby
Thu May 11, 2017 6:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How I use I-ORP, and who shouldn't
Replies: 155
Views: 20316

Re: How I use I-ORP, and who shouldn't

] That doesn't sound right to me, but I'm no expert. One guess is that there are rules about draining a 401K to zero before a certain age. Ask James Walsh the model owner, assuming you kept the model number from your work so he can look at it. If my guess is correct, a Boglehead would simply roll o...
by gneeby
Thu May 11, 2017 6:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I-ORP, Firecalc, The RPM, etc, et al: Question
Replies: 7
Views: 1229

Re: I-ORP, Firecalc, The RPM, etc, et al: Question

BigFoot, thanks for the reply and information. I think it would be useful to provide an automatic feature to vary the age of death (I call this "DOA" in my own Excel workbooks, my wife is not amused). This could be done using VBA to automatically change the DOA and capture the results, or track the...
by gneeby
Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: best software for financial planning
Replies: 60
Views: 10321

Re: best software for financial planning

mnnice wrote:
BigFoot48 wrote:
mnnice wrote: It [i-orp.com] also says to take money out of tax deferred. We are both shy of 59 1/2?
Section 72(t) of the IRS tax code that allows you to take regular, penalty-free withdrawals from your IRA; even if you're younger than 59½.
by gneeby
Fri Aug 26, 2016 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early Retirement - Planning Questions ... UPDATE
Replies: 48
Views: 7416

Re: Early Retirement - Planning Questions

If found this to be pretty helpful in planing; http://i-orp.com/ It figured out the optimal time for me and my spouse to take SS, when and if to do Roth conversion and will tell you how much you can spend to qualify for ACA subsidy if that option is selected. Downside is it take a little while to f...
by gneeby
Fri Aug 26, 2016 9:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Understanding I-orp Logic
Replies: 22
Views: 3227

Re: Understanding I-orp Logic

It seems estate maximization is not what ORP is about. For example, it really wants to spend all the money that is not committed to taxes on RMDs and Roth conversions. It is not clear what happens to money you earn in excess of your capped spending. It does not look at estate tax effects at all and...
by gneeby
Wed Aug 10, 2016 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: SWR and Current/Future Cash Flows
Replies: 23
Views: 2131

Re: SWR and Current/Future Cash Flows

I didn't see anyone mention it in this thread, but I was wondering if it would help the OP to run his data through a tool like I-ORP. See http://www.i-orp.com ..... SWR is probably a useful tool for estimating possibilities when retirement is some time away. People in retirement need an actual plan...
by gneeby
Wed Aug 03, 2016 8:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth Conversion advice
Replies: 19
Views: 2406

Re: Roth Conversion advice

The ORP IRA to Roth conversion option has been enhanced for users who choke up on large IRA withdrawals for conversions early in retirement. The enhancement allows you to pick a tax bracket within which ORP will restrict taxable income early, but not later, in retirement. Setting this parameter to 1...
by gneeby
Sun Jul 31, 2016 7:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement Calculators, which one ?
Replies: 19
Views: 4536

Re: Retirement Calculators, which one ?

What you say, cherijoh, is spot on, in every case except one: i-orp.com is a linear programming optimizer, not a simulator as are the others. ORP takes a global view of retirement cash flow and thus it can compute the sequence and amount of distributions from all three types of retirement accounts, ...
by gneeby
Fri Jan 25, 2013 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Exit accumulation, Enter consumption
Replies: 9
Views: 2938

Re: Exit accumulation, Enter consumption

My standard advice follows .... 1. Use a calculator like http://www.i-orp.com to help determine withdrawals: which amounts from which accounts PLUS double-check the assumptions with tax software such as TurboTax. One should consider conversions to Roth IRA, but with your pension you need to be care...
by gneeby
Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need help on spending down ideas (sequencing)
Replies: 13
Views: 1659

Re: Need help on spending down ideas (sequencing)

The ORP spending level is in current, after income tax dollars. It is what you have available for spending expressed in today's dollars.
by gneeby
Sat May 19, 2012 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to account for different tax advantaged account type
Replies: 51
Views: 2658

Re: How to account for different tax advantaged account type

Optimizing asset allocation is a whole different ball game for which Harry Markowitz got a Nobel.
by gneeby
Fri May 18, 2012 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to account for different tax advantaged account type
Replies: 51
Views: 2658

Re: How to account for different tax advantaged account type

i-orp.com includes a Monte Carlo option; at the bottom of the input parameter form.
by gneeby
Tue Mar 20, 2012 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I plan on retiring in 4 yrs on my 60th birthday
Replies: 16
Views: 2328

Re: I plan on retiring in 4 yrs on my 60th birthday

You said it right, Sheepdog. If only I was 56 and know what I know now. There is enough data on the table to let ORP (www.i-orp.com, mentioned earlier) have a stab at the "When to start Social Security question." Essentially it doesn't matter, or more accurately there is only a 3% annual spending di...
by gneeby
Thu May 05, 2011 1:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Optimal Retirement Calculator
Replies: 17
Views: 6067

How can you "optimize" when you don't know the future? When you die and your health expenses are two biggies. We aren't all going to live until 95 (it is just the Bogleheads that plan for it!) Mathmathical modeling is intended to provide guidelines for decisions that have to be made today and to gi...
by gneeby
Tue Feb 22, 2011 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Managed Payout Distribution Fund vs Annuity
Replies: 21
Views: 4811

The idea that the 4% rule has been debunked is debatable inasmuch as it is probably not appropriate to refer to it as a rule nor as a plan for how to manage cash flow in retirement. Recognized as being a set of findings about how certain investment situations have behaved, I would think a person wo...
by gneeby
Tue Feb 22, 2011 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Managed Payout Distribution Fund vs Annuity
Replies: 21
Views: 4811

A problem like this should probably best be addressed through use of financial models such as these: http://www.i-orp.com/ http://www.retirementoptimizer.com/ As much as I intuitively hate to say it, this is a really good problem for a professional financial planner. If you can identify someone who...
by gneeby
Sat Feb 12, 2011 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Managed Payout Distribution Fund vs Annuity
Replies: 21
Views: 4811

Retirement Optimizer

I don't think $2.2million is enough to make up for the cost of inflation added to non-COLA'd income sources, provide $80K/year, and be raided for $30K-$40K/year for a few years. That is true pretty much no matter how you invest the money. A problem like this should probably best be addressed throug...
by gneeby
Fri Jan 07, 2011 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401(k) or Roth IRA Withdrawal First?
Replies: 15
Views: 11229

kd2008 wrote:I haven't had a chance to play around with i-orp much. But for my scenario it suggests that after maximizing tax deferred account I put money in after-tax account and not Roth IRA. I wonder why.
Did you contact the vendor to see what he had to say?
by gneeby
Fri Nov 12, 2010 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to estimate the filling of low tax brackets - retirement
Replies: 13
Views: 2121

[quote="...after a few more iterations I've lost all faith in that ORP calculator I linked. I just put in an only slightly contrived scenario that had me spending only taxable account funds for the first 15 years or so. It had me with 0 taxable income all those years, so nothing in the zero bracket ...
by gneeby
Wed Feb 03, 2010 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for portfolio advice
Replies: 12
Views: 2501

Yes, the i-orp approach (and I remember some other tool that does that as well but the name escapes me right now) might be more straightforward if one wants the "answer" in that form. Otherwise, one can use "first estimate . . ." in a trial and error approach to see what one's resources can support...
by gneeby
Thu Jan 21, 2010 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for portfolio advice
Replies: 12
Views: 2501

Without estimating how much you plan to spend each year in retirement, your question has no answer. If you plan to live on your pensions and social security, then you can contribute anything you want and invest it any way you want and you will be able to retire. You might want to play around with s...
by gneeby
Sun Nov 08, 2009 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement Calculator
Replies: 30
Views: 8371

Retirement Calculators

I hope yobria's http://www.easyallocator.com comes back; it wasn't available when I just now checked but I thought it was a nice combination of comprehensive and accessible, especially for Boglehead types. Also, the T. Rowe Price calculator mentioned above seems to currently reside here: http://www...
by gneeby
Thu Oct 29, 2009 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement Calculator
Replies: 30
Views: 8371

www.firecalc.com (not monte carlo, but something else) www.flexibleretirementplanner.com The utility of a Monte Carlo calculator is limited by its method of generating its random values. Use of a normal distribution has been slammed hard in the academic press. For example see: Nawrocki, David, prof...
by gneeby
Thu Oct 29, 2009 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement Calculator
Replies: 30
Views: 8371

Pray tell: what specific inputs are you looking for? The main missing inputs were a field to enter expected return during retirement and a field for entering yearly savings as a percent of income. This isn't a huge problem, as most of the calculators have a way of entering this information, just no...
by gneeby
Thu Sep 24, 2009 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Perl Actuarial Monte-Carlo Retirement Simulator
Replies: 30
Views: 5094

This is really a philosophical issue, and a generic one... this is just more brooding about systematic withdrawal plans in general. I start to feel my mind boggle whenever I confront it... like those old logical paradoxes. What good does it do to know my statistical probability of "success" when in...
by gneeby
Wed Sep 09, 2009 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sequence of withdrawals in semi retirement
Replies: 26
Views: 4156

Discussions of withdrawal sequences (and we've had many) are always frustrating to me because I would think there must be a single calculable correct answer. Of course, there must be many many assumptions about parameters like tax law, inflation, returns, etc., but with a given set of assumptions s...
by gneeby
Wed Jul 15, 2009 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review Request from Fletch
Replies: 17
Views: 2395

dbr, Thanks for the comments and advice and taking the time to respond; I appreciate other sets of eyes looking over our portfolio. I usually review cash flow estimates about once a year when we review our Investment Policy Statement, thanks for the reminders. Fletch Based on the above sentence, yo...
by gneeby
Thu Jun 18, 2009 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe withdrawal rate versus IRA taxes
Replies: 12
Views: 3904

Re: Income Taxes

Why would you treat income taxes differently than any other expense? Also, you might want to rethink the wisdom of making early withdrawls from your IRA. Bruce Taxes on your IRA withdrawals, Social Security Benefits and earned income are different from personal expenses. Expenses are mostly descret...
by gneeby
Wed Jun 17, 2009 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe withdrawal rate versus IRA taxes
Replies: 12
Views: 3904

Re: Income Taxes

Why would you treat income taxes differently than any other expense? Also, you might want to rethink the wisdom of making early withdrawls from your IRA. Bruce Taxes on your IRA withdrawals, Social Security Benefits and earned income are different from personal expenses. Expenses are mostly descret...
by gneeby
Wed May 06, 2009 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Taxable vs Tax-Free Withdrawals
Replies: 12
Views: 2539

gneeby - it's the i-orp calculator that I was calling the "withdrawal model" in my response to others above. You're right that it appears to be very useful in answering my basic questions about which accounts to withdraw from year to year, and what to do about the Roth conversions. The answers I go...
by gneeby
Mon May 04, 2009 9:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Taxable vs Tax-Free Withdrawals
Replies: 12
Views: 2539

Re: Taxable vs Tax-Free Withdrawals

I'm looking for help with developing a plan for withdrawing from tax-deferred vs tax-paid funds for retirement income. Can anyone suggest books or articles that are helpful with these decisions, or explain your criteria for making retirement income withdrawals? I've been retired for several years a...
by gneeby
Fri Jul 11, 2008 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your withdrawal rates in retirement?
Replies: 82
Views: 18957

PS Political comment deleted Are you suggesting that "the administration" has control over stock market returns or did you just want to toss in a political jab at the end of your otherwise reasonable comments? There are lots of things I don't like about current and previous administrations, but I d...