Search found 1742 matches

by cjking
Fri Dec 08, 2017 4:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 19396

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

I get that you don't value the privacy of your financial transactions, but many people do, even if they're not doing anything illegal. I'm not explaining why you should use Bitcoin, I'm explaining why other people might want to. I literally can't think of a scenario where a non-criminal person in a...
by cjking
Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 19396

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

See my various previous posts above. Inflation is not a problem if you are holding small amounts for a short time to facilitate spending, so the cryptodollar should be a perfectly fine currency for on-line purchases, in a world where the dollar as we know it still exists. However the possibility of ...
by cjking
Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 19396

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Cryptodollars would be useful for traders, but would make a poor long term holding due to inflation. I think the introduction of cryptodollars would make the bitcoin market even stronger. The most annoying part about bitcoin right now is dealing with the fiat, trading crypto to crypto is much easie...
by cjking
Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 19396

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Actually, if there were a plethora of asset-backed cryptocurrencies, then presumably I could have bank-account denominated in one of them. I could pay my electricity bill from a bank account denominated in CPI_adjusted_cryptopounds, for example. Governments issue inflation-linked bonds, so why not i...
by cjking
Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 19396

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

The argument is made that the original bitcoin has a hard limit of 21 million. Subtract off "lost" bitcoins, factor in the increasing difficulty of generating new ones, the effective actual supply is perhaps 17 million? Less? So that's clearly an attraction if you are a believer in the concept. No ...
by cjking
Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 19396

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

I think there have been some people on the thread who have argued the merits of bitcoin. However, without going back to check, I reckon most claimed merits could apply to most cryptocurrencies anyone might decide to invent. All bitcoin has going for it is being first. That might count for a lot, if ...
by cjking
Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "petro," a Venezuelan oil-backed cryptocurrency
Replies: 32
Views: 2270

Re: The "petro," a Venezuelan oil-backed cryptocurrency

I was reading up on cryptocurrencies yesterday. My conclusion was I still wouldn't touch bitcoin, but asset-backed cryptocurrencies might one day be worthwhile. There are a few out there. One in particular had chosen the US dollar, Gold and bitcoin as their first three assets, which all make sense. ...
by cjking
Sun Nov 19, 2017 5:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Approximating Total World Stock to avoid exchange risk
Replies: 8
Views: 944

Re: Approximating Total World Stock to avoid exchange risk

Edit: I didn't read the thread properly before posting below, possibly not even the OP properly, so apologies if some of it is redundant, or missing the actual issue raised. (I have a bit of a knee-jerk response to people worrying about currency risk.) As a non-US investor, I invest globally and I d...
by cjking
Fri Nov 17, 2017 3:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed percentage withdrawal of maximum portfolio value?
Replies: 14
Views: 1210

Re: Fixed percentage withdrawal of maximum portfolio value?

If a constant income given by a fixed percentage p of initial balance is low enough to survive whatever n-year retirement OP has in mind, then increases to the same percentage of a higher balance encountered along the way will be OK, because by definition percentage p is safe for n years, therefore ...
by cjking
Fri Nov 17, 2017 3:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New TV for Father
Replies: 22
Views: 1675

Re: New TV for Father

Initially because of the default settings my LG OLED did give a disappointing picture, especially with sport, which is the first thing I tested it on. (I can't remember/describe what was wrong, objects smeared at the edges maybe? It was very noticeable and not something I could have lived with.) Onc...
by cjking
Thu Nov 16, 2017 12:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New TV for Father
Replies: 22
Views: 1675

Re: New TV for Father

My dad just got his first OLED (plasma guy in past) and is very disappointed with picture. Could need some tuning but to my eye it looked off as well. Not as sharp. I have an LG OLED since early this year. Picture quality improved immensely when I turned off all video processing. It was then better...
by cjking
Thu Nov 16, 2017 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed percentage withdrawal of maximum portfolio value?
Replies: 14
Views: 1210

Re: Fixed percentage withdrawal of maximum portfolio value?

AlohaJoe wrote:
Thu Nov 16, 2017 8:55 am
cjking wrote:
Thu Nov 16, 2017 8:53 am
AlohaJoe wrote:
Thu Nov 16, 2017 5:44 am
In 1929 it would resulted in you running out of money after just 26 years.
I've skimmed his post a couple of times but not seen anywhere that he's specified the percentage, so not sure what you based this on?
60/40 portfolio.
Sorry, I meant what percentage of the highest-ever balance?
by cjking
Thu Nov 16, 2017 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed percentage withdrawal of maximum portfolio value?
Replies: 14
Views: 1210

Re: Fixed percentage withdrawal of maximum portfolio value?

(Post deleted - discovered an error in my spreadsheet.)
by cjking
Thu Nov 16, 2017 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed percentage withdrawal of maximum portfolio value?
Replies: 14
Views: 1210

Re: Fixed percentage withdrawal of maximum portfolio value?

AlohaJoe wrote:
Thu Nov 16, 2017 5:44 am
In 1929 it would resulted in you running out of money after just 26 years.
I've skimmed his post a couple of times but not seen anywhere that he's specified the percentage, so not sure what you based this on?
by cjking
Wed Nov 15, 2017 7:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Michelin or Bridgestone?
Replies: 67
Views: 3839

Re: Michelin or Bridgestone?

A tyre that doesn't last long may be one that has very good grip. I'm guessing that softer rubber would correlate with both those attributes?
by cjking
Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows 10 System image on USB flash drive
Replies: 27
Views: 1756

Re: Windows 10 System image on USB flash drive

Possibly I should have mentioned that in addition to backing up data, I do create a Windows recovery drive from which I can reinstall Windows.
by cjking
Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows 10 System image on USB flash drive
Replies: 27
Views: 1756

Re: Windows 10 System image on USB flash drive

I think I've reinstalled Windows and all my applications a couple of times since Windows 10 came out. Once to switch from 32-bit to 64-bit, and once when my hard drive suddenly failed and I replaced it with an SSD. Recovering from the hard drive failure gave me confidence that I definitely don't nee...
by cjking
Thu Nov 09, 2017 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A Friend Asked Me - Ponzi or Not? [1st position commercial mortgage notes]
Replies: 27
Views: 4899

Re: A Friend Asked Me - Ponzi or Not? [1st position commercial mortgage notes]

If I find myself wondering whether something is a good investment, I ask if I'll be buying it at a price set in a large and liquid free market. If not, I assume the seller will be getting the better end of the deal.
by cjking
Sat Nov 04, 2017 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Have TIPS truly been tested yet?
Replies: 48
Views: 4425

Re: Have TIPS truly been tested yet?

When I needed to use my personal rate of inflation over the last 20 years in a spreadsheet, I came to the conclusion that the estimated rate of inflation on my home (bought almost 20 years ago) was a much more appropriate measure than CPI. If I had put the purchase price of that home in an investmen...
by cjking
Mon Oct 23, 2017 12:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Better than 4% Rule
Replies: 40
Views: 5328

Re: Better than 4% Rule

I see the requirement as being to fully utilise a given $1 million portfolio to as far as possible produce exactly 40K a year for 30 years, with nothing left at the end. This is my proposal. 1. Calculate required_return, as described in my post above, as RATE(30,4%,-1,0,0) = 1.2%. 2. At the end of y...
by cjking
Mon Oct 23, 2017 11:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Better than 4% Rule
Replies: 40
Views: 5328

Re: Better than 4% Rule

This is just a summary of how far I got with the options approach, before deciding I was probably wasting my time and working out what I think is a better way to meet the objective. I'll post the latter later. Looking at the graph which showed no income for years when annualised returns were low ris...
by cjking
Sat Oct 21, 2017 6:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Better than 4% Rule
Replies: 40
Views: 5328

Re: Better than 4% Rule

OK, this is just an idea based on one minute's thought. Say you have $1 million you want to take 30 years income from and have no bequest motive, so money left at the end is of no use to you. You would like exactly 40K income. (You would take that even if the market is down 50% the year after you re...
by cjking
Sat Oct 21, 2017 6:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Better than 4% Rule
Replies: 40
Views: 5328

Re: Better than 4% Rule

That seems a perverse conclusion to reach when derivatives weren't mentioned a single time in the article you read. Use of call options was mentioned. I don't think actual derivatives can be used, as unless something has change since I last looked at options, 15 years ago, I don't think long-term c...
by cjking
Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is there boglehead consensus on buying a car?
Replies: 73
Views: 5335

Re: Is there boglehead consensus on buying a car?

My strategy used to be to buy a used car that cost in the region of a month or two's income, then keep it for several years. As someone who worked on fixed-term contracts of a year or less, with niche specialims, I always assumed my income might permanently disappear within a year, so I didn't want ...
by cjking
Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 100% invested, all in, no cash- how do you do it?
Replies: 42
Views: 3830

Re: 100% invested, all in, no cash- how do you do it?

I will describe myself as 100% equities even if/when 10% of my liquid net worth is in cash. The reason 10% of my net worth might be in cash would be because I've withdrawn it as income in accordance with my withdrawal algorithm, and not yet thought of something to spend it on. I call this cash "savi...
by cjking
Mon Oct 02, 2017 3:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alternative to Google Finance? [Portfolios feature deprecated]
Replies: 64
Views: 14953

Re: Alternative to Google Finance? [Portfolios feature deprecated]

A while ago I replaced my use of Google portfolio with a Google spreadsheet using the GoogleFinance function internally to retrieve prices. I don't actually look at the sheet directly, I have a daily job that that downloads it (using wget.exe) and my main investment spreadsheet uses it as a source o...
by cjking
Sun Oct 01, 2017 1:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question: Why do people put/keep millions of dollars in investment accounts?
Replies: 66
Views: 8642

Re: Question: Why do people put/keep millions of dollars in investment accounts?

Regarding risks and dips and RBDs, during the big crash of 2008, I told people I owned 0.000000003% of the world's publicly traded companies yesterday, and today I own 0.000000003% of the world's publicly traded companies. I believe holding cash is gambling. That sums up my feelings on nominal v re...
by cjking
Sun Sep 24, 2017 1:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Expert's Dilemma - How can I know I'm getting a good physician without being one myself?
Replies: 125
Views: 8928

Re: The Expert's Dilemma - How can I know I'm getting a good physician without being one myself?

On another forum I was on a helpful contribution was made by a lawyer. (It wasn't a legal forum.) Someone asked him his success rate in court. He said that for any specialist like him it would be about 50:50, because they took the most difficult cases where the outcome was uncertain. (He would be th...
by cjking
Tue Sep 12, 2017 2:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: China to ban petrol cars
Replies: 64
Views: 5139

Re: China to ban petrol cars

Not a gasoline tax....a city pollution/luxury tax. Like an ICE car gets a $50 toll/day within city limits, independent of how much gas is burned. Get an EV...no tax. This is being introduced in London at the moment. Cars already have to pay a congestion charge to enter the centre, now older cars (a...
by cjking
Mon Sep 11, 2017 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: China to ban petrol cars
Replies: 64
Views: 5139

Re: China to ban petrol cars

Then, of course, they will still be producing electricity with Coal and other non-green sources, until they cut that over too. I have the vague impression that they are building massive solar power capacity. Just did a google and came across a random article. http://www.dw.com/en/china-leading-the-...
by cjking
Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help! Google Pixel erased itself -- what happened?
Replies: 15
Views: 1781

Re: Help! Google Pixel erased itself -- what happened?

I think there should be a way to mostly restore the phone configuration and data from a backup?
by cjking
Mon Aug 14, 2017 3:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car Depreciation As Reason to Get A New Car
Replies: 34
Views: 3749

Re: Car Depreciation As Reason to Get A New Car

Whether you think there is a rule for how much cars depreciate depends on how accurate you need to be. My rule of thumb is cars halve in value every three years. Since I keep them until they are worthless it doesn't matter if my calculation is slightly out in any given year.
by cjking
Sun Aug 06, 2017 5:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you count vehicle equity in net worth?
Replies: 203
Views: 11960

Re: Do you count vehicle equity in net worth?

A car might only be a tiny fraction of net worth, but a new one might be a considerable fraction of annual expenditure. So, if you track your income and spending in finance software, and if your car cost is more like a years worth of income or expenses than a months worth, then it makes sense to tre...
by cjking
Sun May 14, 2017 1:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cars: Expense or Asset?
Replies: 84
Views: 6042

Re: Cars: Expense or Asset?

The Wizard wrote:There is no need to "report" annual expenditure as a private citizen.
Legal requirements are not the only reason anyone ever does accounting. (i.e. you have interpreted "report" in some narrow sense I didn't intend.)
by cjking
Sun May 14, 2017 12:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cars: Expense or Asset?
Replies: 84
Views: 6042

Re: Cars: Expense or Asset?

The value of a new car may be an insignificant part of net worth, but the depreciation on it a significant part of annual expenditure. You can only record depreciation if you've treated it as an asset in the first place. For me the motivation to treat a new car as an asset is not to make net worth m...
by cjking
Sun May 07, 2017 9:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone still upgrading their PC build? (Not replacing the machine)
Replies: 51
Views: 4642

Re: Anyone still upgrading their PC build? (Not replacing the machine)

I think my PC is about 17 years old, though all that's original is the case. It's a plain beige floor-standing tower that effectively takes up no space, standing inconspicuously in a corner next to my desk that is unusable for anything else. The power supply was changed for the first time a few mont...
by cjking
Sat May 06, 2017 6:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Microsoft, I want my computer back!
Replies: 175
Views: 16554

Re: Microsoft, I want my computer back!

I don't have any problem choosing whether or not my stuff should be stored in Onedrive. If you don't want to use it, it sounds like it's a mistake to disable it. I suspect that if it were re-enabled, then normal service would be resumed when it comes to deleting folders. (I've never had this problem...
by cjking
Sat Apr 29, 2017 11:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Microsoft, I want my computer back!
Replies: 175
Views: 16554

Re: Microsoft, I want my computer back!

I remember in the distant past sometimes being annoyed by Windows 10 updates taking control of my computer, but it's a long time since it's been an issue. I think it might have been me setting active hours under update settings that solved the problem, by forcing updates not to happen at times of da...
by cjking
Sat Apr 29, 2017 11:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help with computer from IT folk
Replies: 35
Views: 3097

Re: Help with computer from IT folk

Novine wrote:Windows 10 is a resource hog compared to Windows 7.
I thought that on the same hardware Windows 10 was faster than 8 which was faster than 7. I have a seven-year-old PC with a celeron processor and 2Gig of memory that runs 10 as fast or faster than it ran 7.
by cjking
Sat Apr 29, 2017 3:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Will cars be autonomous in three years?
Replies: 225
Views: 15154

Re: Will cars be autonomous in three years?

With all this talk about autonomous CARS, I did some reading up of why there are no autonomous trains. One of the stations within walking distance of my home (in London) is for the Docklands Light Railway, which has been running since 1987. I haven't googled to check, but as far as I know trains ha...
by cjking
Fri Apr 28, 2017 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stay Out Of REITs?
Replies: 35
Views: 5052

Re: Stay Out Of REITs?

REITs have been more advantageous to me than international stocks. I'm not saying that international won't have its day, but it's hard to dismiss these returns: From May 4, 2007 - April 2017, international returned 2.77% From May 4, 2007 - April 2017, REITs returned 65.71% ... and that's without di...
by cjking
Wed Apr 26, 2017 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement income for 50+ years?
Replies: 167
Views: 17193

Re: Retirement income for 50+ years?

I'd rather wait till the stock market crashes. I'm very much on the side of taking valuations into account, but I don't agree with the way you proposing to do it. The stock-market has no obligation to crash, ever, even if it is "overvalued" now. Even if valuations decline over the next few decades,...
by cjking
Sun Apr 02, 2017 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bankruptcy of Westinghouse Electric
Replies: 79
Views: 9043

Re: Bankruptcy of Westinghouse Electric

I don't think nuclear has much of a future, if solar power is now cheaper than coal and gas. From a wikipedia article on solar in India. According to a Bloomberg report in December 2016, the cost of solar power in India, China, Brazil and 55 other emerging market economies dropped to about one third...
by cjking
Sun Apr 02, 2017 6:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When do you plan to die?
Replies: 164
Views: 13971

Re: When do you plan to die?

I plan to live to exactly my actuarial life-expectancy, currently 34 more years. "Plan" as in current life expectancy is the exact number of years I divide my money among, to calculate current years income. However I have a cap on withdrawals at just under 4% of initial balance, and an expected retu...
by cjking
Wed Mar 29, 2017 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your strategy for withdrawing funds in Retirement ?
Replies: 57
Views: 7645

Re: What's your strategy for withdrawing funds in Retirement ?

Ideally I would like to spend only the returns on my portfolio, and leave the portfolio to my heirs. A strategy that directly tries to do that, bearing in mind I intend to nearly always be 100% allocated to equities, would be to withdraw balance * 75% / PE10. While I believe that would work perfectl...
by cjking
Sat Mar 04, 2017 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to 'deal' with large swings in withdrawals when using VPW?
Replies: 26
Views: 2300

Re: How to 'deal' with large swings in withdrawals when using VPW?

Re. living to 100: the longevity calculator below tells me a 50-year-old male has a 10% probability of living to 100, and 25% of living to 95. I am quite surprised how high those numbers are.

http://visual.ons.gov.uk/how-long-will- ... d-to-last/
by cjking
Fri Mar 03, 2017 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Crazy Valuation Based Allocation Strategy.
Replies: 17
Views: 2050

Re: A Crazy Valuation Based Allocation Strategy.

My view is that it is always wrong to ascribe bad returns to poor investment choices or strategy. There is no such thing as negative alpha, poor returns can only be caused by excessive costs or bad luck. In my view, Returns = benchmark return + alpha + luck - costs, where alpha >= 0, costs > 0. &quo...
by cjking
Fri Mar 03, 2017 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to 'deal' with large swings in withdrawals when using VPW?
Replies: 26
Views: 2300

Re: How to 'deal' with large swings in withdrawals when using VPW?

Note that "savings" is a rule-free zone, other than requirement to hold them in immediately accessible cash, which is dictated by the need for savings to be entirely available for spending at any time. There is no obligation for the savings balance to be non-zero at any point in time. The ...
by cjking
Fri Mar 03, 2017 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to 'deal' with large swings in withdrawals when using VPW?
Replies: 26
Views: 2300

Re: How to 'deal' with large swings in withdrawals when using VPW?

My plan is to disconnect income from spending, by having something called "savings", which are defined so as to be distinct from the "investments" that provide my "income." For the purpose of my plan, my definitions are:- Investments : Assets whose primary purpose is to...
by cjking
Fri Mar 03, 2017 6:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Crazy Valuation Based Allocation Strategy.
Replies: 17
Views: 2050

Re: A Crazy Valuation Based Allocation Strategy.

I'm just reading the OP links now, I see that in the past emerging has sometimes had similar and even higher CAPE than the US, which invalidates my earlier comment that you might never switch out of initially cheaper parts of the world. This variability is beneficial though, as it does give you an o...