Search found 1714 matches

by cjking
Tue Sep 12, 2017 2:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: China to ban petrol cars
Replies: 64
Views: 4219

Re: China to ban petrol cars

Not a gasoline tax....a city pollution/luxury tax. Like an ICE car gets a $50 toll/day within city limits, independent of how much gas is burned. Get an EV...no tax. This is being introduced in London at the moment. Cars already have to pay a congestion charge to enter the centre, now older cars (a...
by cjking
Mon Sep 11, 2017 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: China to ban petrol cars
Replies: 64
Views: 4219

Re: China to ban petrol cars

Then, of course, they will still be producing electricity with Coal and other non-green sources, until they cut that over too. I have the vague impression that they are building massive solar power capacity. Just did a google and came across a random article. http://www.dw.com/en/china-leading-the-...
by cjking
Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help! Google Pixel erased itself -- what happened?
Replies: 15
Views: 1551

Re: Help! Google Pixel erased itself -- what happened?

I think there should be a way to mostly restore the phone configuration and data from a backup?
by cjking
Mon Aug 14, 2017 3:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car Depreciation As Reason to Get A New Car
Replies: 34
Views: 3509

Re: Car Depreciation As Reason to Get A New Car

Whether you think there is a rule for how much cars depreciate depends on how accurate you need to be. My rule of thumb is cars halve in value every three years. Since I keep them until they are worthless it doesn't matter if my calculation is slightly out in any given year.
by cjking
Sun Aug 06, 2017 5:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you count vehicle equity in net worth?
Replies: 203
Views: 10273

Re: Do you count vehicle equity in net worth?

A car might only be a tiny fraction of net worth, but a new one might be a considerable fraction of annual expenditure. So, if you track your income and spending in finance software, and if your car cost is more like a years worth of income or expenses than a months worth, then it makes sense to tre...
by cjking
Sun May 14, 2017 1:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cars: Expense or Asset?
Replies: 84
Views: 5604

Re: Cars: Expense or Asset?

The Wizard wrote:There is no need to "report" annual expenditure as a private citizen.


Legal requirements are not the only reason anyone ever does accounting. (i.e. you have interpreted "report" in some narrow sense I didn't intend.)
by cjking
Sun May 14, 2017 12:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cars: Expense or Asset?
Replies: 84
Views: 5604

Re: Cars: Expense or Asset?

The value of a new car may be an insignificant part of net worth, but the depreciation on it a significant part of annual expenditure. You can only record depreciation if you've treated it as an asset in the first place. For me the motivation to treat a new car as an asset is not to make net worth m...
by cjking
Sun May 07, 2017 9:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone still upgrading their PC build? (Not replacing the machine)
Replies: 51
Views: 4404

Re: Anyone still upgrading their PC build? (Not replacing the machine)

I think my PC is about 17 years old, though all that's original is the case. It's a plain beige floor-standing tower that effectively takes up no space, standing inconspicuously in a corner next to my desk that is unusable for anything else. The power supply was changed for the first time a few mont...
by cjking
Sat May 06, 2017 6:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Microsoft, I want my computer back!
Replies: 175
Views: 15310

Re: Microsoft, I want my computer back!

I don't have any problem choosing whether or not my stuff should be stored in Onedrive. If you don't want to use it, it sounds like it's a mistake to disable it. I suspect that if it were re-enabled, then normal service would be resumed when it comes to deleting folders. (I've never had this problem...
by cjking
Sat Apr 29, 2017 11:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Microsoft, I want my computer back!
Replies: 175
Views: 15310

Re: Microsoft, I want my computer back!

I remember in the distant past sometimes being annoyed by Windows 10 updates taking control of my computer, but it's a long time since it's been an issue. I think it might have been me setting active hours under update settings that solved the problem, by forcing updates not to happen at times of da...
by cjking
Sat Apr 29, 2017 11:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help with computer from IT folk
Replies: 35
Views: 2940

Re: Help with computer from IT folk

Novine wrote:Windows 10 is a resource hog compared to Windows 7.


I thought that on the same hardware Windows 10 was faster than 8 which was faster than 7. I have a seven-year-old PC with a celeron processor and 2Gig of memory that runs 10 as fast or faster than it ran 7.
by cjking
Sat Apr 29, 2017 3:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Will cars be autonomous in three years?
Replies: 225
Views: 14150

Re: Will cars be autonomous in three years?

With all this talk about autonomous CARS, I did some reading up of why there are no autonomous trains. One of the stations within walking distance of my home (in London) is for the Docklands Light Railway, which has been running since 1987. I haven't googled to check, but as far as I know trains ha...
by cjking
Fri Apr 28, 2017 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stay Out Of REITs?
Replies: 35
Views: 4911

Re: Stay Out Of REITs?

REITs have been more advantageous to me than international stocks. I'm not saying that international won't have its day, but it's hard to dismiss these returns: From May 4, 2007 - April 2017, international returned 2.77% From May 4, 2007 - April 2017, REITs returned 65.71% ... and that's without di...
by cjking
Wed Apr 26, 2017 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement income for 50+ years?
Replies: 167
Views: 16287

Re: Retirement income for 50+ years?

I'd rather wait till the stock market crashes. I'm very much on the side of taking valuations into account, but I don't agree with the way you proposing to do it. The stock-market has no obligation to crash, ever, even if it is "overvalued" now. Even if valuations decline over the next fe...
by cjking
Sun Apr 02, 2017 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bankruptcy of Westinghouse Electric
Replies: 79
Views: 8739

Re: Bankruptcy of Westinghouse Electric

I don't think nuclear has much of a future, if solar power is now cheaper than coal and gas. From a wikipedia article on solar in India. According to a Bloomberg report in December 2016, the cost of solar power in India, China, Brazil and 55 other emerging market economies dropped to about one third...
by cjking
Sun Apr 02, 2017 6:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When do you plan to die?
Replies: 164
Views: 12891

Re: When do you plan to die?

I plan to live to exactly my actuarial life-expectancy, currently 34 more years. "Plan" as in current life expectancy is the exact number of years I divide my money among, to calculate current years income. However I have a cap on withdrawals at just under 4% of initial balance, and an exp...
by cjking
Wed Mar 29, 2017 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your strategy for withdrawing funds in Retirement ?
Replies: 57
Views: 7240

Re: What's your strategy for withdrawing funds in Retirement ?

Ideally I would like to spend only the returns on my portfolio, and leave the portfolio to my heirs. A strategy that directly tries to do that, bearing in mind I intend to nearly always be 100% allocated to equities, would be to withdraw balance * 75% / PE10. While I believe that would work perfectl...
by cjking
Sat Mar 04, 2017 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to 'deal' with large swings in withdrawals when using VPW?
Replies: 26
Views: 2168

Re: How to 'deal' with large swings in withdrawals when using VPW?

Re. living to 100: the longevity calculator below tells me a 50-year-old male has a 10% probability of living to 100, and 25% of living to 95. I am quite surprised how high those numbers are.

http://visual.ons.gov.uk/how-long-will- ... d-to-last/
by cjking
Fri Mar 03, 2017 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Crazy Valuation Based Allocation Strategy.
Replies: 17
Views: 1917

Re: A Crazy Valuation Based Allocation Strategy.

My view is that it is always wrong to ascribe bad returns to poor investment choices or strategy. There is no such thing as negative alpha, poor returns can only be caused by excessive costs or bad luck. In my view, Returns = benchmark return + alpha + luck - costs, where alpha >= 0, costs > 0. &quo...
by cjking
Fri Mar 03, 2017 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to 'deal' with large swings in withdrawals when using VPW?
Replies: 26
Views: 2168

Re: How to 'deal' with large swings in withdrawals when using VPW?

Note that "savings" is a rule-free zone, other than requirement to hold them in immediately accessible cash, which is dictated by the need for savings to be entirely available for spending at any time. There is no obligation for the savings balance to be non-zero at any point in time. The ...
by cjking
Fri Mar 03, 2017 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to 'deal' with large swings in withdrawals when using VPW?
Replies: 26
Views: 2168

Re: How to 'deal' with large swings in withdrawals when using VPW?

My plan is to disconnect income from spending, by having something called "savings", which are defined so as to be distinct from the "investments" that provide my "income." For the purpose of my plan, my definitions are:- Investments : Assets whose primary purpose is to...
by cjking
Fri Mar 03, 2017 6:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Crazy Valuation Based Allocation Strategy.
Replies: 17
Views: 1917

Re: A Crazy Valuation Based Allocation Strategy.

I'm just reading the OP links now, I see that in the past emerging has sometimes had similar and even higher CAPE than the US, which invalidates my earlier comment that you might never switch out of initially cheaper parts of the world. This variability is beneficial though, as it does give you an o...
by cjking
Fri Mar 03, 2017 6:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Crazy Valuation Based Allocation Strategy.
Replies: 17
Views: 1917

Re: A Crazy Valuation Based Allocation Strategy.

I agree with not liking GVAL, but my reason for not liking is its narrowness and relative expense. I assume the performance is just bad luck. It's annoying that the only global fund specifically constructed to use CAPE has such an unattractive construction. It's a fund that you might allocate the le...
by cjking
Fri Mar 03, 2017 5:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Crazy Valuation Based Allocation Strategy.
Replies: 17
Views: 1917

Re: A Crazy Valuation Based Allocation Strategy.

Not historical data, but current data you can use for implementation m I use this data to compute CAPE ratios for the Vanguard UK index funds I have access to, such as Emerging, Europe, Asia-ex-Japan, whole world etc. I use the country breakdown available for the funds to compute this. Rather than h...
by cjking
Thu Mar 02, 2017 1:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chromebook video quality question
Replies: 13
Views: 969

Re: Chromebook video quality question

1080 looks fine to me on my 70 in screen viewed from 8 feet. I'm very glad to hear that. I'm starting to get UHD signals available to me, and was thinking of upgrading from 50" to 65" to benefit from the extra resolution, but was put off by the though that the majority of my viewing in 10...
by cjking
Thu Mar 02, 2017 1:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chromebook video quality question
Replies: 13
Views: 969

Re: Chromebook video quality question

If using an HDMI cable the computer should be able to find out the TV's native resolution and set the video output resolution accordingly, so I doubt it's a case of mismatched resolutions.

More likely that the resolution was just too low for the size of the TV screen.
by cjking
Thu Mar 02, 2017 12:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chromebook video quality question
Replies: 13
Views: 969

Re: Chromebook video quality question

Couldn't this simply be a question of screen size? The exact same resolution blown up to a big enough screen might look grainy on the big screen, but not small. For example, I haven't tried this but I assume 1080 line video would look fine on a portable device, fine on a 50 inch screen viewed from 8...
by cjking
Thu Mar 02, 2017 6:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 24091

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

Here is a graph based on Shiller's data that illustrates what I think is a sensible use of E10/P for prediction. The aim is not to make a prediction over any one fixed time period, as I expect randomness at the end-date to make such predictions fairly useless. The aim is to predict the centre about ...
by cjking
Wed Mar 01, 2017 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 24091

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

No I agree with cjking. Outcome doesn't define if a strategy was good or not. We could just have gotten lucky these past 7 years. But cjking can't say there's no possible downside to moving a ton of money into International and Emerging Markets because they had lower valuations and higher "exp...
by cjking
Wed Mar 01, 2017 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 24091

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

We got 12% instead for the past 7 years. No possible downside to missing out on those gains because you "expected" domestic stocks to do poorly? As I'm sure you know, what actually happened over the past 7 years is irrelevant in determining what would have been a good strategy seven years...
by cjking
Wed Mar 01, 2017 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 24091

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

How in there no possible downside? In 2010, expected returns were 4.5%, We got 12% instead for the past 7 years. No possible downside to missing out on those gains because you "expected" domestic stocks to do poorly? Using valuations doesn't necessarily mean investing in things with lower...
by cjking
Wed Mar 01, 2017 4:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 24091

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

Make decisions AFTER you get ACTUAL returns. This made me immediately think of this:- Don’t gamble"; take all your savings and buy some good stock, and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it. To be serious, as I see it the consequence of using a "weak predi...
by cjking
Tue Feb 28, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 24091

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

I'm still not convinced though that we'll see lower returns as a consequence of higher valuations, even over the long-term. Returns can't be higher than profits, for an indefinite length of time. If "higher valuations" means E10/P below 4%, then either returns will be lower than the histo...
by cjking
Sat Feb 25, 2017 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oscillating withdrawal rate - OWR
Replies: 10
Views: 1008

Re: Oscillating withdrawal rate - OWR

I think the problem with this idea is that the time for high spending may not exactly coincide with the good time to be taking money out of the portfolio. (Edit: also, more fundamentally, the point of withdrawal rules is to impose a discipline so money doesn't run out, so you really only have the op...
by cjking
Thu Feb 23, 2017 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 24091

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

A bit off topic too, but International socks in general are not very appealing as a portfolio diversifier in terms of helping smooth out returns. I agree with that. If for example US equities are down 50% over the next year, then probably then rest of the world will be down a similar magnitude as w...
by cjking
Thu Feb 23, 2017 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 24091

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

FWIW, in January 2000 the CAPE 10 was forecasting a real return to US stocks of 2.3%, it has been 3%. I'd say that was a very good prediction. Larry How is the individual investor to take action on this information though? If one were looking to invest all of their life savings in one lump sum, I m...
by cjking
Thu Feb 23, 2017 5:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 24091

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

FWIW, in January 2000 the CAPE 10 was forecasting a real return to US stocks of 2.3%, it has been 3%. I'd say that was a very good prediction. Larry Out of curiosity, does that include dividends? In another thread recently I posted that the annualised return from 2000 to the end of January 2017 had...
by cjking
Wed Feb 22, 2017 1:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Getting the snip: Should it be me or my partner?
Replies: 13
Views: 1777

Re: Getting the snip: Should it be me or my partner?

I read on another forum that there is a 1 in 10 probability of life-long pain for man. I'm sure that can't be right, otherwise no-one would do it, but I would find out what the correct statistic says.
by cjking
Wed Feb 22, 2017 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?
Replies: 232
Views: 13287

Re: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?

This is off-topic in this thread, so I'll keep it short. The comment about 2000 retirees having done OK prompted me to review how S&P 500 returns have done. One prediction at the peak, December 1999, when CAPE was 44.2, would have been returns of 1/44.2 = 2.3%. According to the first returns cal...
by cjking
Wed Feb 22, 2017 5:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 24091

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

Going from 60:40 to 40:60 is a reasonable timing move for someone happy to stay at 40:60 forever, if the reverse move is never triggered. For others, an alternative strategy is cheaper equities. Most US investors heavily overweight the US, which is the most expensive market to allocate funds to. Usi...
by cjking
Sun Jan 15, 2017 5:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why nobody understands importance of high-deductible insurance?
Replies: 115
Views: 11712

Re: Why nobody understands importance of high-deductible insurance?

I find when I get car insurance quotes that the standard excess (deductible) might be £300, if I increase it to say £500 the price goes down, but if I increase it further to £700, the price increases.

Also, legal minimum insurance often costs more than more comprehensive insurance.
by cjking
Tue Jan 10, 2017 4:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A dead year, never get it back
Replies: 90
Views: 11896

Re: A dead year, never get it back

I suppose we should distinguish between remaining time to be invested, which gets shorter as we get older, as opposed to the total time invested, which is probably irrelevant, as we can't change the past. When it comes to asset allocation, all that matters is how much variability we can handle. Assu...
by cjking
Tue Jan 10, 2017 4:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A dead year, never get it back
Replies: 90
Views: 11896

Re: A dead year, never get it back

In accumulation your first dollar might be invested for say 40 years, say you start at age 25 and retire at 65. The last bit of savings before retiring are invested for approximately 0 years. So on average your dollars are invested, in accumulation, for 20 years. It depends on how you plan to withd...
by cjking
Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A kitchen timer made in the USA.........
Replies: 22
Views: 2245

Re: A kitchen timer made in the USA.........

I have a timer on my 20-year-old built-in oven. If using the oven it will turn the oven off when the countdown expires, but you don't need to be using the oven to use the timer. If you set a time it will beep when it expires, regardless of whether the oven is being used or not.
by cjking
Mon Dec 19, 2016 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle says (US) has the best investor protections and legal institutions
Replies: 88
Views: 7642

Re: Bogle says (US) has the best investor protections and legal institutions

I'm not a US investor, but I did a quick Google and came across a page that says it "seeks to track the performance of the FTSE Global All Cap ex US Index."

I googled that index and got a link back to Bogleheads that confirms it is cap-weighted.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/FTSE_Gl ... x_US_Index
by cjking
Thu Dec 15, 2016 4:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle says (US) has the best investor protections and legal institutions
Replies: 88
Views: 7642

Re: Bogle says (US) has the best investor protections and legal institutions

Getting carried away, I have emerging markets as 56% as honest as the US. If you exclude both US and emerging markets from the world index, the remainder average 101% of US honesty. So going abroad but avoiding emerging markets decreases exposure to corruption. (Though the difference is tiny.) In su...
by cjking
Thu Dec 15, 2016 4:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle says (US) has the best investor protections and legal institutions
Replies: 88
Views: 7642

Re: Bogle says (US) has the best investor protections and legal institutions

For interest sake, the cap-weighted honesty index for a world-ex-US fund is 93% of a US one.
by cjking
Thu Dec 15, 2016 4:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle says (US) has the best investor protections and legal institutions
Replies: 88
Views: 7642

Re: Bogle says (US) has the best investor protections and legal institutions

I don't buy the idea that the U.S. is relatively corrupt. I went to that image and saw there was an option to download the data to Excel. I did that, and pasted a list of FTSE world index countries and cap weights into a new tab, and calculated the cap-weighted honesty index for the FTSE world inde...
by cjking
Wed Dec 14, 2016 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle says (US) has the best investor protections and legal institutions
Replies: 88
Views: 7642

Re: Bogle says (US) has the best investor protections and legal institutions

I should really have just posted the breakdown of a world index. By the time you've added together the cap weights of USA, equally sound European countries, Canada and Australia, and assuming you also trust Japan, then 80% of your funds are allocated before you hit a country that you might worry abo...
by cjking
Wed Dec 14, 2016 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle says (US) has the best investor protections and legal institutions
Replies: 88
Views: 7642

Re: Bogle says (US) has the best investor protections and legal institutions

No matter where we live in the the world, a world index should be the benchmark from which we justify any divergence. I'm a UK investor who actively tries to avoid US (and Japanese) equities for valuation reasons. Here's my current target equity allocation broken down by country. (I invest half in w...