Search found 1915 matches

by cjking
Fri May 29, 2020 1:24 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Sold higher than asked?
Replies: 4
Views: 439

Re: Sold higher than asked?

Did this maybe happen during a stock-exchange auction? I'm just listening to a video on how auctions work (in London but I assume NYSE is similar) and normal matching mechanisms are suspended during auctions, a single price for all participants is derived from the state of the order book, and everyo...
by cjking
Thu May 28, 2020 9:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: [Is an Investment Policy Statement needed? How do I write one?]
Replies: 46
Views: 1512

Re: [Is an Investment Policy Statement needed? How do I write one?]

Perhaps we should have a competition to find the simplest plan regarded as adequate for general use:- 1. Starting at age x, save x% of income in the most tax-efficient investment accounts available 2. Invest all money in the accounts in the Vanguard Target Retirement fund that matches your profile 3...
by cjking
Tue May 26, 2020 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Making the most of the Shiller-CAPE ratio?
Replies: 13
Views: 635

Re: Making the most of the Shiller-CAPE ratio?

To demonstrate how I use it, here is an edited extract from a table I use to choose what to allocate to. There are two columns, an expected return that is essentially 1/CAPE (plus some small adjustments that might take up to 0.5% off) followed by the fund name. (I'm a UK investor, so the fund names ...
by cjking
Wed May 20, 2020 7:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index Fund
Replies: 180
Views: 16490

Re: Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index Fund

If volatility is the cause of sequence of return risk, then the sequence of return risk can be reduced if a larger portion of your 4%-rule comes from dividends. I posted a similar conclusion on this board more than ten years ago, but as a consequence of trying and failing to prove my case, I came t...
by cjking
Mon May 18, 2020 2:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cambria Global Value - Value Tilt
Replies: 49
Views: 8771

Re: Cambria Global Value - Value Tilt

I like CAPE 10, but it is if you hold for 10 years you get the expected return. My concern is if they always re balance to the lowest 10 countries, isn't that not allowing enough time for the original portfolio to work its way out? I don't think that is a problem. There is nothing wrong with sellin...
by cjking
Thu Apr 30, 2020 10:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: File Versioning on C: in Windows 10
Replies: 12
Views: 792

Re: File Versioning on C: in Windows 10

I wasn't aware that you couldn't write history to the drive you were backing up, although I suppose it makes sense. The "fact" about only being able to use a removable or network drive is false. I backup to a second internal drive without any problem. (And without having to do anything other than sp...
by cjking
Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taleb Says Portfolios to ‘Blow Up’ Without Tail Hedges
Replies: 35
Views: 3273

Re: Taleb Says Portfolios to ‘Blow Up’ Without Tail Hedges

I don't think his comments apply to most of us. "Blow up" means go bust. This doesn't apply to anyone with unleveraged investments in index funds. Some index constituents might fail, but that's not going to be fatal for index investors. The reduced competition should ultimately benefit the failure's...
by cjking
Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Computers - Solid State Drive vs. Hard Disk Drive
Replies: 75
Views: 4091

Re: Computers - Solid State Drive vs. Hard Disk Drive

One thing about having data only in the cloud is that if the cloud provider or internet has an issue, I can't get to the data from anywhere. I want backups to the cloud (constant real-time backups), but also local copies. TB drives are cheap. Since this thread started I have turned on Onedrive file...
by cjking
Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"
Replies: 536
Views: 35605

Re: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"

So consider my response in light of what I think is your/vineviz's/others' point (among many), that after the payment of a cash dividend, the value of the shares in a company must fall. I do not believe that is accurate, for the reasons I stated above. If you believe that the shares of a company do...
by cjking
Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How are the "100% Stocks" people doing?
Replies: 137
Views: 11394

Re: How are the "100% Stocks" people doing?

After a manic month and a half in which my usually passive strategy has caused me to make some 70 trades, my expected return is up 30%, although portfolio balance is down 13%. At the time of writing there has been a large net shift in my holdings from equity indices to REITs. (Some REITs fell twice ...
by cjking
Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those concerned about International Stocks...
Replies: 78
Views: 6808

Re: For those concerned about International Stocks...

Here's an analogy for US vs rest-of-the-world. - Two stocks, A and B, that (for simplicity of figures) pay out all their earnings as dividends. - Twenty years ago their prices were $100 each, earnings $5 each. - Investors for whatever reason prefer stock A, so today A is $200, B is still $100. Both ...
by cjking
Sun Apr 19, 2020 6:04 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Computers - Solid State Drive vs. Hard Disk Drive
Replies: 75
Views: 4091

Re: Computers - Solid State Drive vs. Hard Disk Drive

Unfortunately, way too many applications want "things" to be on the system drive and you can get into odd, squirrelly territory trying to convince them to put their "libraries" and such on an external drive. Plus, an internal system drive has less risk of problems and glitches due to, say, not moun...
by cjking
Sat Apr 18, 2020 4:22 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 72465

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

This chart is nuts. Where did it come from? Looks like a NYT graphic but I would like to check out the source data. Here is a similar chart for England, in a report called "All-cause Mortality Surveillance." You can clearly see the spikes in winter where seasonal flu increases the death rate, and h...
by cjking
Sun Apr 12, 2020 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anybody have an IPS that says 'I will sell all equities when X happens'?
Replies: 92
Views: 4037

Re: Does anybody have an IPS that says 'I will sell all equities when X happens'?

My strategy tells me to switch into higher-yielding assets when the opportunity presents itself. Price changes are likely to be the main reason for asset yields changing relative to each other. My main alternatives to equity index trackers are REITs. I have limits on how much I can put into each REI...
by cjking
Sat Apr 11, 2020 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modern Monetary Theory
Replies: 97
Views: 6587

Re: Modern Monetary Theory

This thread triggered an entertaining few days for me this week, reading up on MMT. I think it's worth learning about, just for an increased understanding of how things work. But I read some critiques, and they sounded like they had some valid points to. MMT advocate printing money until unemploymen...
by cjking
Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:28 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 72465

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Something that is actually relevant to investing: apparently the UK government is considering taking equity stakes in companies that might otherwise go out of business. (They may give loans that will convert to equity if not repaid within a short time.) https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/04/0...
by cjking
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:31 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190887

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Suppression is fine if it works without destroying the economy. With this virus it won't work because of the many asymptomatic cases. But it will destroy the economy. This week's Economist says the US will be better off by 60K per household as a result of "mitigation." (Can't post a link, I have it...
by cjking
Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:49 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190887

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Tomas Pueyo was much quoted earlier in the discussion, but I think I'm the first to link to his most recent blog post, on April 1. https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-out-of-many-one-36b886af37e9 Here’s what you’ll take away: The coronavirus is growing everywhere in the US. Some states are on...
by cjking
Sat Apr 04, 2020 6:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stocks are undervalued!
Replies: 83
Views: 9106

Re: International stocks are undervalued!

I'm been advocating non-US stocks as better value on here for years. I don't think the amount better value they offer is any different now than it was previously though. As far as a I can tell, most index trackers around the world are down by similar amounts from pre-crisis levels. About 20% right n...
by cjking
Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:27 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190887

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

The 30th March Imperial College report has 95% confidence intervals for the number of people who've been infected in 11 European countries, as of 28 March. For all but two countries the upper end of the confidence interval was less than 10%. The exceptions were Italy 9.8% infected, confidence interv...
by cjking
Wed Apr 01, 2020 8:29 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190887

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

I would agree that many countries may see round after round of mitigation. China, however, might not see such massive lockdowns. They may aggressively track each new case and isolate them before it spreads. Many other countries will llack either the ability or the willingness to do this. I think af...
by cjking
Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:50 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190887

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

I hope this link works for you guys. A BBC video clip showing time-lapse photography of the new COVID emergency hospital being built in a London convention centre. As all 4000 beds will be in one room, which is about a kilometre long, I think that must be a world record for the size of a hospital wa...
by cjking
Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:35 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190887

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

I'm not one for conspiracy, but here is something that was reported friday : China is not reopening its movie theaters as it planned to. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-reverses-course-and-once-again-shuts-down-theaters-over-coronavirus-fears-002535004.html This is something they can't disguis...
by cjking
Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:58 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190887

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

So in the UK they think have accurate testing as well then I presume? Here (in MI anyway) we are told if we have symptoms and don't feel we need 911 for emergency medical attention then to stay home and not get tested. Clearly this protocol will understate the number of cases. I think there was a d...
by cjking
Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:33 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190887

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Also, I'm not sure what your last sentence is intended to mean toward me. I've not been following your back-and-forth, but my subliminal impression is that what is annoying him is you minimising the problem by arguing that it is smaller than it appears to be. If you're risking your life in a war, t...
by cjking
Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:58 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190887

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

I don't know if this has already been posted, but the Financial Times has some quality Coronavirus coverage that is free to read. https://www.ft.com/coronavirusfree The article with graphs comparing the trajectory of the disease in different countries is especially good. I think the graphs are being...
by cjking
Sat Mar 28, 2020 7:49 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190887

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Actually, I was wrong. The UK did absolutely nothing. It did not even do #3. I think there has been some kind of misunderstanding about point 3, I read it in isolation as meaning that the UK literally had no response other than isolate old people. That wasn't true at any stage, not even 3 weeks ago...
by cjking
Sat Mar 28, 2020 6:55 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190887

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

cjking, << I think the "herd immunity" policy was abandoned two weeks ago, one week after it was announced. >> Action speaks louder than words. 1) UK did a minimum amount of testing. 2) UK did not shut down anything until this week. 3) UK's official policy is to ask older folks to stay home and do ...
by cjking
Sat Mar 28, 2020 6:12 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190887

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

3) The UK is the country advocating this approach. I just want to correct you on this, as I think you've said it more than once recently on this thread, and it's not true. Going from memory, and without checking my dates, I think the "herd immunity" policy was abandoned two weeks ago, one week afte...
by cjking
Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:36 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190887

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Moving on from the 500K vs 20K debate, I caught a fragment on the news last night about estimates for the world as a whole, with the range of deaths being 40 million if nothing was done down to (I think) 1.3 million if every country did the maximum. This morning I've found the new report, not yet re...
by cjking
Fri Mar 27, 2020 3:13 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190887

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

I enjoyed the news story below about the student in Taiwan who had to quarantine because of returning from abroad. His phone battery died at about 7.30am on the weekend, while he was asleep. This meant the authorities no longer knew where he was. While he continued to sleep, four different admin uni...
by cjking
Fri Mar 27, 2020 3:47 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How capable is public broadband of supporting increased usage?
Replies: 38
Views: 1947

Re: How capable is public broadband of supporting increased usage?

My ISP (here in London) have actually emailed me to say this is a non-issue. They are sized for peak demand which happens in the evening, when everyone is streaming. Daytime demand is never going to be as high as when many people are streaming UHD. On the other hand, I have heard of one online educa...
by cjking
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:13 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190887

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Please start listening at 1:22. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z3i1qyZOumc Yes I can see why you have the impression that you do. She created a misleading impression. You can in isolation take something she said as implying that the figures had changed, which is untrue. Initially I thought that sh...
by cjking
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:38 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190887

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

And, the UK's approach is "do nothing" and "no testing". I would let you draw your own conclusion. KlangFool Where did you get that from? I have colleagues in the UK (Cambridge, England specifically) and I just spoke with one 3 hours ago. He is only allowed to leave his house 1 hour per day under t...
by cjking
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:13 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190887

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Another interesting read:https://threader.app/thread/1243133211011690499 The number of deaths are no longer expected to be around 500K in the UK. They are now expecting less than 20,000 which is less than the annual flu deaths. :shock: Fortunately for my blood pressure, other posters have alreay po...
by cjking
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:52 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190887

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

I am admittedly not an expert, but it seems like we are seeing some positive data emerge relating to new cases and daily deaths. Both counts have declined day over day. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ Why is this not very encouraging? As someone who has been monitoring daily t...
by cjking
Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:51 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190887

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

For the UK I'm hearing 20,000 as a possible number of deaths if all measures are taken, and 500,000 if nothing is done. I've not been following the news properly, and may not accurately understood what you were trying to say. Am I wrong to the think the reason for incurring the economic cost is som...
by cjking
Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 COVID Crash Lessons
Replies: 157
Views: 12778

Re: 2020 COVID Crash Lessons

My strategy requires me to assign an expected return to all the assets I might invest in, and to switch to higher-yielding ones once they offer a predetermined premium, even after allowing for switching costs. I've learned 1. When computing the yield difference for a potential switch, to calculate t...
by cjking
Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:38 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190887

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Not saying that at all. Influenza kills tens of thousands in the US every year and many of those deaths are “avoidable” if certain measures were taken, including forced quarantines of infected people and household members and invasive South Korean style monitoring and contact tracing etc. This is n...
by cjking
Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:29 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190887

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

The economic damage at some point becomes worse than the potentially avoidable consequences of the disease. Not for the people who who would die if the economic price weren't incurred. I'd guess any amount of economic damage is OK with them. Those who think the death-set doesn't include themselves ...
by cjking
Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:23 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190887

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

... Following is a link to the Imperial College model released yesterday. According to today's NY times, this is likely the best model available at this time and what the US (and other governments) are so worried about now. It will take require several significant interventions happening simultaneo...
by cjking
Tue Mar 17, 2020 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index Fund
Replies: 180
Views: 16490

Re: Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index Fund

If volatility is the cause of sequence of return risk, then the sequence of return risk can be reduced if a larger portion of your 4%-rule comes from dividends. I posted a similar conclusion on this board more than ten years ago, but as a consequence of trying and failing to prove my case, I came t...
by cjking
Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:39 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190887

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Does the Chinese government have any culpability for allowing the wet markets? I saw some expert quoted on the subject of the wet markets a few weeks ago, he was emphatic that they should not be banned. That would drive trade underground. What could happen is an increase in health and hygiene regul...
by cjking
Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So yesterday I leveraged up
Replies: 75
Views: 7986

Re: So yesterday I leveraged up

I suppose you should cap your leverage at 25%, or maybe a little less. Then if there is a 50% decline thereafter, you will still be in low interest rate territory. Alternatively, maybe invest double you contribution if the market is down since the previous contribution, but reduce your leverage inst...
by cjking
Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Suggestions for top notch router?
Replies: 56
Views: 2192

Re: Suggestions for top notch router?

I have a 80Mbs fibre connection. My cheap free router the ISP supplied me with years ago is not a bottleneck, with one proviso. I have the router on a timer switch that reboots it at 3am every day. That seems to eliminate several potential problems that occur when it isn't regularly restarted. (I di...
by cjking
Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Google sheets vs Excel; end of life Office 2010
Replies: 37
Views: 2300

Re: Google sheets vs Excel; end of life Office 2010

Things that google sheets didn't have that I need were "solver" and "web query". The old "web query" I used to use is now seldom useful, as web design has evolved away from what it knows how to handle. I'm not entirely impressed with the replacement. It does allow you to access precisely the data yo...
by cjking
Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Google sheets vs Excel; end of life Office 2010
Replies: 37
Views: 2300

Re: Google sheets vs Excel; end of life Office 2010

I think finding out if you're eligible for the Office 365 discount I was talking about is as simple as entering your work email address in the page linked to below. Note that any person in the household can take out a subscription that covers the whole household. https://www.microsoft.com/en-gb/home...
by cjking
Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Google sheets vs Excel; end of life Office 2010
Replies: 37
Views: 2300

Re: Google sheets vs Excel; end of life Office 2010

Note for office 365, you may be able to get a large lifelong discount on your subscription if you work for a corporation who are microsoft users, when you first subscribe. (Forget the exact details, just flagging that it's worth checking.) (You prove you are the employee of someone with the right ty...
by cjking
Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:00 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: In which currency should I buy ETFs?
Replies: 5
Views: 368

Re: In which currency should I buy ETFs?

I had this dilemma a week ago. I wanted to buy ishares US sector trackers listed in London, and found that for each sector there were multiple tickers, representing multiple currencies, including GBP and USD. It took me a while to understand that I would own exactly the same amount of exactly the sa...
by cjking
Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone buying oil/energy sector?!
Replies: 56
Views: 5069

Re: Anyone buying oil/energy sector?!

I did switch about 4% of investment balance into an S&P 500 energy sector tracker today, from a Europe-ex-uk tracker. I'm switching purely based on CAPE, so if sector earnings do suffer a long-term decline, this could turn out to be a bad move. (If anyone remembers any of my previous posts in which ...