Search found 1836 matches

by cjking
Mon May 06, 2019 3:31 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: UK SIPP Provider Recommendations?
Replies: 14
Views: 1652

Re: UK SIPP Provider Recommendations?

To answer another question, the Youinvest web site is nice enough, certainly better than Interactive Investor, which is the only other broker I have recent experience of. As I use only exchange-traded securities listed in the UK I'm fairly confident that my choice of broker has no effect on what I c...
by cjking
Mon May 06, 2019 3:16 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: UK SIPP Provider Recommendations?
Replies: 14
Views: 1652

Re: UK SIPP Provider Recommendations?

I know this is a 2016 thread, but for future reference for anyone coming across it:- The following blogger does a comparision:- https://monevator.com/compare-uk-cheapest-online-brokers/ If like me you have a large balance and are happy to use only exchange-traded securities, I would recommend Youinv...
by cjking
Thu May 02, 2019 10:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wifi extenders vs Mesh network
Replies: 54
Views: 4016

Re: Wifi extenders vs Mesh network

Extenders cut your bandwidth by ~50% when connected through them b/c the same comm link is being used to communicate with the router, then your device, then back to the router. The extender can't talk to the router and your device at the same time. There is also limited to no software on the router...
by cjking
Sun Apr 21, 2019 3:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks will return about 4% annually over the next decade or so rather than the 10% average annual returns - John Bogle
Replies: 104
Views: 13713

Re: Stocks will return about 4% annually over the next decade or so rather than the 10% average annual returns - John Bo

1) Say there's no inflation ever and gross earnings never grow. If EPS was 1.00 every year from 2009-2018 and then the S&p buys back 50% of shares before at end of 2018, then the EPS becomes say 2.000 for 2019. My brain is very foggy this morning, and I haven't digested the whole argument in the po...
by cjking
Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows 7 end of support - Jan 14, 2020
Replies: 69
Views: 3717

Re: Windows 7 end of support - Jan 14, 2020

I have never used the reset feature. I prefer a clean install from the Windows media for whichever build I want. I am assuming reset will re-install an older build which is less than ideal. I'm at 1803 with my home machine and 1809 with the other 50 machines I manage. Why would reset install anythi...
by cjking
Fri Apr 19, 2019 8:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows 7 end of support - Jan 14, 2020
Replies: 69
Views: 3717

Re: Windows 7 end of support - Jan 14, 2020

I'm very happy with Windows 10. Maybe the fact I've done a clean install a couple of times since upgrading has helped. (The built-in "reset this PC" feature makes this easy. )
by cjking
Wed Apr 17, 2019 2:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks will return about 4% annually over the next decade or so rather than the 10% average annual returns - John Bogle
Replies: 104
Views: 13713

Re: Stocks will return about 4% annually over the next decade or so rather than the 10% average annual returns - John Bo

Just a couple of CAPE-related observations. I think Shiller recently did an alternative version of CAPE that takes buybacks into account. I believe it shows the market as more expensive than his original measure did. The effect of 2008/2009 dropping out is always cited as a reason to disregard, but ...
by cjking
Sun Apr 14, 2019 7:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity valuation and not caring
Replies: 50
Views: 3093

Re: Equity valuation and not caring

If you had invested a lump sum in stocks at the very top of the dotcom boom in 2000 (i.e. ridiculously high valuations), you would have experienced 5.7% CAGR through the past 19 years. I've just had a look on moneychimp, and with dividends reinvested and adjustment for inflation they say the CAGR w...
by cjking
Mon Mar 18, 2019 9:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [Tankless” hot water heater can’t keep up when filling bathtub]
Replies: 13
Views: 1814

Re: Would a thermostatic shower valve solve my tankless hot water temp fluctuations?

I have a thermostatic valve. The shower I use shares it's hot water supply with the kitchen. If my wife turns on the kitchen tap, the shower pressure drops, but the temperature doesn't really change. (The cold supply is not shared with kitchen, so it's only hot water usage there that makes a differe...
by cjking
Tue Mar 05, 2019 3:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I move my plants away from street lamp so they can sleep?
Replies: 14
Views: 1318

Re: Should I move my plants away from street lamp so they can sleep?

I have no idea whether plants are bothered by light. But we have some security lights above communal garden areas that give out green light all night, so I'm guessing someone thought it was a good idea to give plants light they wouldn't use. I've just googled this, turns out I'm right. Gardeners pri...
by cjking
Sun Feb 24, 2019 4:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "You're More Internationally Diversified Than You (Probably) Realize"
Replies: 139
Views: 9884

Re: "You're More Internationally Diversified Than You (Probably) Realize"

Let me be clear: If the percentage of U.S. stocks in your portfolio is higher than the share of U.S. from the total world stock market cap, you are effectively betting against the companies listed in the rest of the world . If I were a betting man, with U.S. valuations as high as they are, I would ...
by cjking
Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ruminations on Taleb's "Antifragile" and its Applications to Retirement Income
Replies: 115
Views: 8257

Re: Ruminations on Taleb's "Antifragile" and its Applications to Retirement Income

I thought I'd just float the outline of an idea for implementing a barbell strategy, without having to resort to any exotic investments or products. Start with a portfolio you're generally psychologically comfortable with. Let's suppose $1 million in that portfolio from which you hope to withdraw in...
by cjking
Thu Feb 14, 2019 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock
Replies: 139
Views: 16060

Re: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock

By owning stock in large US companies, you are already being exposed to global markets. I implicitly disagree with this argument. I believe in market efficiency within stock-markets, but am betting (perhaps mistakenly) that home bias means it doesn't exist across markets. So if the same company mov...
by cjking
Thu Feb 14, 2019 1:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock
Replies: 139
Views: 16060

Re: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock

You have to remember that ex-US is mostly Europe and Japan. Are you really bullish on those? "Bullish" is a phrase I'd use for anticipating good luck with the earnings multiple. If Europe has a 2% higher smoothed earnings yield, nothing special needs to happen for it to earn 2% more, if both Europe...
by cjking
Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock
Replies: 139
Views: 16060

Re: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock

The problem is that ex-US isn't cheap either. Valuations are lower than US (which is nothing new), but they are still much higher than their historical average. I wonder what countries and numbers you are looking at? I have world-ex-US on an expected return of 5.5% versus US on 3.5%, for the actual...
by cjking
Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock
Replies: 139
Views: 16060

Re: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock

Broadly speaking, I think now is nearly always a good time for most people to get their equity exposure from the world index. Having said that, in the late 80's I would have wanted zero exposure to Japan, and now (as a non US-investor, and after a recent change in strategy) I have zero exposure to t...
by cjking
Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Skype problems
Replies: 4
Views: 286

Re: Skype problems

Although I've just seen you are using an ipad than than iphone, I think I've just read somewhere that Whatsapp doesn't work on ipad, though it works on iphone. Just googled, and Viber apparently does work on Ipad.
by cjking
Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:43 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Skype problems
Replies: 4
Views: 286

Re: Skype problems

Might be worth trying Whatsapp or Viber. Skype was first, but it seems to have been overtaken in worldwide popularity by those two.

I don't really use any, so can't comment on how well they work.
by cjking
Thu Feb 14, 2019 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New and Improved CAPE is Higher!
Replies: 18
Views: 1739

Re: New and Improved CAPE is Higher!

But then had Shiller not come up with his new methodology, you would have expected return of 3% real. (not that this is much of a difference) Yes. (Edit: though I actually get my data from Star Capital web site rather than Shiller, as they give data for all countries. Don't know which method they u...
by cjking
Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New and Improved CAPE is Higher!
Replies: 18
Views: 1739

Re: New and Improved CAPE is Higher!

This 2016 paper from Star capital references a 2014 paper by Shiller, where he apparently changed to using total return. https://www.starcapital.de/fileadmin/user_upload/files/publikationen/Research_2016-01_Predicting_Stock_Market_Returns_Shiller_CAPE_Keimling.pdf 2.1. CAPE criticism I: payout ratio...
by cjking
Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New and Improved CAPE is Higher!
Replies: 18
Views: 1739

Re: New and Improved CAPE is Higher!

But the historical CAPE becomes higher too. And it looks like there is a greater difference in the older data, which would effectively mean the current CAPE is lower than we think: Though many CAPE users seem to think it's a good idea, I don't compare CAPE with it's history, as then you are implici...
by cjking
Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New and Improved CAPE is Higher!
Replies: 18
Views: 1739

Re: New and Improved CAPE is Higher!

I did notice this recently. I haven't quite got my head around the difference, other than that "price" in the new method is the price of a total-return index, rather than one where prices are reduced as a consequence of dividends having been paid. I suppose it makes sense that if you have a higher p...
by cjking
Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any Experience with pay per mile insurance
Replies: 26
Views: 1359

Re: Any Experience with pay per mile insurance

I think a recent version of this takes into account the things like the time of day you drive. If you're a young/new driver willing to minimise driving late at night, the insurance companies see that as a big risk reduction. That's not pay per mile insurance. That's usage-based insurance. In pay pe...
by cjking
Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any Experience with pay per mile insurance
Replies: 26
Views: 1359

Re: Any Experience with pay per mile insurance

Here they install trackers in your car, which is something else I found off-putting. However the company I'm looking at now, there's no install effort, it's just a dongle that you plug into the OBD port under the steering wheel. That's much more palatable, I already have a free one supplied by the c...
by cjking
Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any Experience with pay per mile insurance
Replies: 26
Views: 1359

Re: Any Experience with pay per mile insurance

I'm not in the US, but here we have had several companies offering this type of insurance for more than a decade. I do only 2500 miles per year, so I thought it would be ideal. Whenever I have looked into it, it has been much more expensive than just having an annual policy, like twice as expensive....
by cjking
Mon Dec 24, 2018 3:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Can't get Quicken 2010 to work on new computer- Help! Alternatives (eg CountAbout), or??
Replies: 32
Views: 1924

Re: Can't get Quicken 2010 to work on new computer- Help! Alternatives (eg CountAbout), or??

One of the the things I like about Moneydance is that every report contains a "copy" button, click on that and then click paste in an Excel window and it pastes all the report data into Excel. So you're not limited by the built-in reporting, you can build any kind of custom report or graph you like ...
by cjking
Mon Dec 24, 2018 3:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Can't get Quicken 2010 to work on new computer- Help! Alternatives (eg CountAbout), or??
Replies: 32
Views: 1924

Re: Can't get Quicken 2010 to work on new computer- Help! Alternatives (eg CountAbout), or??

When (a non-US version of) Quicken stopped working for me under some new release of Windows, I successfully migrated all my data to Moneydance. Could you also import investment .qif files without losing any data? I'm not sure exactly what you mean by an "investment .qif" file, as opposed to any oth...
by cjking
Sun Dec 23, 2018 2:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Can't get Quicken 2010 to work on new computer- Help! Alternatives (eg CountAbout), or??
Replies: 32
Views: 1924

Re: Can't get Quicken 2010 to work on new computer- Help! Alternatives (eg CountAbout), or??

When (a non-US version of) Quicken stopped working for me under some new release of Windows, I successfully migrated all my data to Moneydance.
by cjking
Wed Nov 28, 2018 9:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dual Monitor Set up
Replies: 52
Views: 2984

Re: Dual Monitor Set up

I bought a new monitor recently. My old monitor was a ten-year-old 1680x1050 resolution one that I used in portrait mode 99% of the time. For almost all computer uses, I find portrait better than landscape. (I don't use monitors for games or watching video.) I looked at various widescreen options fo...
by cjking
Fri Nov 02, 2018 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An extreme example of inflation and a mortgage
Replies: 37
Views: 3360

Re: An extreme example of inflation and a mortgage

“Tearing up the deal” just means the borrower prepaying the mortgage during declining rates, the odds and impact of which can be quantified. Just like the odds and impact of rising rates can be quantified. The lender is accounting for both risks when setting the fixed interest rate. For the lender ...
by cjking
Fri Nov 02, 2018 7:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An extreme example of inflation and a mortgage
Replies: 37
Views: 3360

Re: An extreme example of inflation and a mortgage

HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Fri Nov 02, 2018 6:22 am
But the lenders understand this asymmetry upfront, and so should be baking it into the fixed rate...
What does it matter what they bake in, and why, if the other party has the power to tear up the deal when it goes against him?
by cjking
Fri Nov 02, 2018 6:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An extreme example of inflation and a mortgage
Replies: 37
Views: 3360

Re: An extreme example of inflation and a mortgage

I am pushing back against the stated claim in this thread that a fixed rate mortgage “is a great inflation hedge.” Unless there is evidence that the fixed rate upon inception systematically underestimates future inflation due to some structural feature of our mortgage markets... I agree that expect...
by cjking
Thu Nov 01, 2018 5:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Isn't Paying off the mortgage early putting less money in your house (not more)?
Replies: 96
Views: 9618

Re: Paying off the mortgage early - Isn't this the opposite of "putting more money into your house"?

When a lender lends money on terms that mean they aren't entitled to get a return that adequately exceeds inflation, that's a gamble that can work out badly for them, to the benefit of the borrower. Let me construct an artificial scenario to illustrate why holding a mortgage can allow you to benefit...
by cjking
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 111133

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Interesting. How were you able to find the Cape for 2003 for the FTSE 100? I had my own time monthly time series which I hadn't updated since March 2017. The data came from daily FTSE 100 index values and FTSE 100 PEs published by FT.com, however when I went to bring it up-to-date I found the relev...
by cjking
Fri Oct 19, 2018 5:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 111133

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

I just looked at the price charge for VEU (Total International Vanguard ETF) and in August 2008 before the Financial Crisis kicked in, the ETF traded in the low 48s. Price today: 48.28. That's more than 10 years of earning nothing other than the dividend. The longest comparison (in multiples of 5 y...
by cjking
Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need new email address. Gmail or ???
Replies: 70
Views: 5551

Re: Need new email address. Gmail or ???

Even though I do use a PC client, I don't duplicate my email locally, that seems like unnecessary clutter and complexity to me. I don't worry that google will delete my old emails without warning Gmail can collect your emails from several other providers, so that's not a reason to use a PC client. I...
by cjking
Mon Oct 15, 2018 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need new email address. Gmail or ???
Replies: 70
Views: 5551

Re: Need new email address. Gmail or ???

I've had gmail for a long time and I do not have a problem with it. However, a friend and I were talking about one of its rather obnoxious recent 'upgrades' which occurred without my realizing how it happened - it now 'suggests' 3 separate responses at the close of the letter sent to me. These sugg...
by cjking
Mon Oct 15, 2018 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need new email address. Gmail or ???
Replies: 70
Views: 5551

Re: Need new email address. Gmail or ???

I have a gmail account. When I started using a monitor in portrait mode, I got Mailbird as my email client, as the Gmail web client didn't give me the preview layout i wanted. I also liked not having any screen space taken up by adverts. I had reason to use the Gmail client recently, and there were ...
by cjking
Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?
Replies: 84
Views: 4648

Re: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?

On the subject of interest rates, in "Valuing Wall Street" Andrew Smithers said that central bank interest rates and bond yields are irrelevant in valuing stocks, therefore any models that use them are worthless. (This includes "the Fed model", whatever that is.) I think he said you can use the divi...
by cjking
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 111133

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

I don’t have the numbers in front me, but I’m pretty sure 5 years ago those P/E ratios were very similar. Looking at the below chart, over the last 5 years S&P 500 prices have increased by more than (ten year average of) earnings. It is more expensive now than it was five years ago. http://www.mult...
by cjking
Sun Sep 30, 2018 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE-Based Robert Shiller Bought Italy and Spain Indexes in 2015
Replies: 62
Views: 2762

Re: CAPE-Based Robert Shiller Bought Italy and Spain Indexes in 2015

My current strategy restricts me to holding twice a countries share of world market capitalisation, so I've piled into Italy and Spain to the maximum extent allowed. Which means 1.6% exposure to Italy and and 1.8% to Spain. Us "market-timers" like to live dangerously. :D (After implementing a change...
by cjking
Sun Sep 30, 2018 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE-Based Robert Shiller Bought Italy and Spain Indexes in 2015
Replies: 62
Views: 2762

Re: CAPE-Based Robert Shiller Bought Italy and Spain Indexes in 2015

Among other questions, this raises the frequency of adjustment. If you base your ten year projected returns on current valuations, how often do you change your allocation? If you bought Italy and Spain a few years ago when their CAPEs were low, what do you do now? Here's a simple example of a strat...
by cjking
Sun Sep 30, 2018 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE-Based Robert Shiller Bought Italy and Spain Indexes in 2015
Replies: 62
Views: 2762

Re: CAPE-Based Robert Shiller Bought Italy and Spain Indexes in 2015

I doubt he predicted those markets were a better bet over three years. Stock-market returns over one year will be close to random, over three years not much less so. Even over the 10 to 30 year periods that are more appropriate for this kind of prediction, they will be a lot of noise overlaying the ...
by cjking
Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio
Replies: 143
Views: 32543

Re: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio

If I remember what I've previously read about the Global Market Portfolio correctly, you need to mix it with the appropriate amount of leverage or safe assets to get to your desired risk level. It would be nice if Vanguard offered a base fund, then several derivative funds with weightings from 50% t...
by cjking
Sun Sep 09, 2018 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Put Options
Replies: 41
Views: 3069

Re: Put Options

Whatever strike you settle on, calculate how long you can keep/renew the bet before you will have spent more in total than you'll make if you're subsequently proved right. I had a similar intuition about the S&P 500 and placed some bets in 1998/1999/2000, but eventually gave up on this strategy when...
by cjking
Tue Sep 04, 2018 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are you not compensated for taking unsystematic risk?
Replies: 42
Views: 2615

Re: Why are you not compensated for taking unsystematic risk?

I don't think the difference between bitcoin and stocks is clear-cut, stock-markets also have irrational bubbles. I think usually most markets are close enough to the required conditions for the wisdom of crowds to work, but when a mania takes hold independence breaks down, then after the bubble bur...
by cjking
Tue Sep 04, 2018 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are you not compensated for taking unsystematic risk?
Replies: 42
Views: 2615

Re: Why are you not compensated for taking unsystematic risk?

this seems to imply that the consensus is better than the informed opinion of some people. Under certain conditions, the average of a crowd of independent expert's opinions is likely to be a better predictor than using any individual opinion. (That the opinions be independent is one of the conditio...
by cjking
Fri Aug 17, 2018 4:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Underperform the Market
Replies: 48
Views: 5161

Re: How to Underperform the Market

Therefore, if investors are able to consistently lose to the market (by being emotional or by any other reason), then there should be a mirror strategy that consistently beats the market, simply by doing the opposite. I know a company who do precisely this. I have posted about them before. In the U...
by cjking
Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 229
Views: 15104

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

I cited it indirectly in a previous post on this thread. I linked to a blog post, which in turn was a summary of the WSJ article. It was a way of getting around the paywall. Yes I see you did, thanks. Not sure why the other post caught my attention more. This does look like an interesting metric, b...
by cjking
Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 229
Views: 15104

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

A recent WSJ article by Mark Hulburt is pertinent: The Eight Best Predictors of the Long-Term Market https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-8-best-predictors-of-the-long-term-market-1533521521 Am I the only one who followed this link? The gist is that there is a predictor far more accurate than CAPE, whi...