Search found 269 matches

by newport1
Mon Jan 07, 2013 12:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need some help re: analyzing substantial portfolio changes
Replies: 11
Views: 654

Re: Need some help re: analyzing substantial portfolio chang

Thanks for the thoughtful replies. After running the numbers different ways, the best I can get is a slight after-tax advantage for the VA after 10 years. After factoring in the possible penalty for early redemption and (minimal) insurance company counter-party risk, the VA does not make a lot of se...
by newport1
Sun Jan 06, 2013 2:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need some help re: analyzing substantial portfolio changes
Replies: 11
Views: 654

Re: Need some help re: analyzing substantial portfolio chang

LTCG get a stepped up basis upon your demise, so all gains are tax-free. In a variable annuity, there is no stepped up basis and heirs pay taxes. True. Still may be better off avoiding the current taxes on dividends and taking the distributions when I can avoid the 13.3% CA taxes. Of course federal...
by newport1
Sun Jan 06, 2013 2:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need some help re: analyzing substantial portfolio changes
Replies: 11
Views: 654

Re: Need some help re: analyzing substantial portfolio chang

Then seek professional help. I would not move $6 million or more to a variable annuity myself. There are consequence to heirs as well. I have talked to tax lawyers and, while they know the tax issues, they are not very good at working through the math. I believe the heir issue is basically the inco...
by newport1
Sun Jan 06, 2013 1:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need some help re: analyzing substantial portfolio changes
Replies: 11
Views: 654

Re: Need some help re: analyzing substantial portfolio chang

OK, you first tell me you are not going to pay LTCG tax and then you tell me you are going to pay 37% LTCG tax. I am saving my carryover losses for the future when I can live off of taxable investments tax-free and do Roth conversions at the 0% tax rate. If you cash in now, I think you would be was...
by newport1
Sun Jan 06, 2013 1:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need some help re: analyzing substantial portfolio changes
Replies: 11
Views: 654

Re: Need some help re: analyzing substantial portfolio chang

You avoid LT cap gains taxes by not realizing any gains. So wait until you leave CA to do that. I suppose you are thinking that for qualified dividends you will pay 20% + 3.9% + CA state income tax to get to 33%? We get a lot of dividends from our taxable investments that were taxed at 15%, but eve...
by newport1
Sun Jan 06, 2013 1:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need some help re: analyzing substantial portfolio changes
Replies: 11
Views: 654

Need some help re: analyzing substantial portfolio changes

I am thinking of making material changes to my portfolio and am a bit overwhelmed by the complexity of the decision. I am in the highest federal and CA income tax brackets and therefore pay an effective rate of about 33% (after considering the effect of the phase-out of itemized deductions) on divid...
by newport1
Fri Jun 01, 2012 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Encouraging words of the day
Replies: 41
Views: 2788

Re: Encouraging words of the day

The usual TV market prognosticators sound ready to slit their wrists. That encourages me that a rally is in the making.
by newport1
Tue Jan 03, 2012 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1/3 updated values
Replies: 8
Views: 843

Re: 1/3 updated values

Groundhog wrote:My google doc was updated after 6pm but I noticed later that some of the bond funds had different values for Jan 3. Still waiting for my TSP prices to report in. A busy first trading day of the year I guess.
what's odd is that the VG funds that I hold at a different custodian have been priced.
by newport1
Tue Jan 03, 2012 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1/3 updated values
Replies: 8
Views: 843

1/3 updated values

For some reason my mutual funds haven't been revalued for Jan 3. It's about 8:30pm ET. Anyone else having this issue?
by newport1
Mon Dec 05, 2011 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CA muni bond fund options
Replies: 2
Views: 513

CA muni bond fund options

I would like to find a CA state tax-exempt replacement for my VMLUX and VWSUX positions and haven't found anything suitable. I suppose I can manufacture the avg duration I want through a combination of the VG CA money fund and VCADX if necessary. Alternatively, I suppose I can buy individual short a...
by newport1
Fri Oct 21, 2011 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12340
Views: 2128821

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Where are the US Stocks are in uncontrolled ascent threads?
by newport1
Sat Oct 15, 2011 8:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bill Gross ,"Im just having a bad year"
Replies: 38
Views: 4337

Bond bear markets take 30 years to unfold. To gloat over a 6 month winning streak is really missing the point. I think this is exactly the point. These people collect enormous fees (remember the Gross is a billionaire thanks to the generosity of his fund investors) because they are perceived as bei...
by newport1
Thu Oct 06, 2011 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Bullish this October
Replies: 217
Views: 25874

Mr Ferri may be owed some apologies.
by newport1
Thu Oct 06, 2011 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12340
Views: 2128821

Lbill wrote:September confirms bear market:

Image

From: J.D. Steinhilber, October 06, 2011
I believe many of the indices are up > 8% since the date of these data.
by newport1
Thu Oct 06, 2011 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ten Stock-Market Myths That Just Won't Die
Replies: 24
Views: 5363

I recall that this guy was unbelievably negative when the markets were beginning to recover in Q2 2009. He is a fool.
by newport1
Wed Oct 05, 2011 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Bullish this October
Replies: 217
Views: 25874

So yesterday the official -20% threshold for a bear market was crossed. That means that the bear market started 158 days before, at the previous peak of 1363.61 on 29-Apr-2011. We have been in a bear market since then. The intraday low was 1074.77, which was -21.18% below the peak. But then the mar...
by newport1
Tue Oct 04, 2011 2:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Let me know when you throw in the towel
Replies: 43
Views: 5473

I'm a buyer. Please see my post called Pessimism for more detail.
by newport1
Tue Oct 04, 2011 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pessimism
Replies: 1
Views: 679

Pessimism

How negative is the sentiment regarding the world economy? Well, last week a self proclaimed independent trader named Allesio Rastani was interviewed on the BBC and made some rather dire predictions about the global economy. Among other things Mr. Rastani averred that the “market is toast”, “the sto...
by newport1
Tue Oct 04, 2011 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Bullish this October
Replies: 217
Views: 25874

I recall this forum in 2006/2007 where people were met with this level of hostility when they suggested stocks might decline. This pessimism bodes well for future returns.
by newport1
Tue Oct 04, 2011 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Uncomfortable coincidence
Replies: 5
Views: 1458

Uncomfortable coincidence

On 10/3/08 the S&P 500 index closed at 1099.23. On 10/3/11 the S&P 500 closed at 1099.23.

From 10/3/08 to 10/10/08, the S&P 500 declined to 899.22.
by newport1
Sat Oct 01, 2011 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Bank of America going to survive?
Replies: 159
Views: 35524

by newport1
Fri Sep 30, 2011 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: And now for a really bearish prediction...
Replies: 15
Views: 3495

And now for a really bearish prediction...

Yikes.

Albert Edwards, a global strategist at Societe Generale, has been underweight stocks since 1996 and despite being met, he says, with "utter derision," believes a fall by the S&P to 400 is "almost inevitable."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44713888
by newport1
Sat Sep 24, 2011 10:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I've lost so much money...
Replies: 23
Views: 6250

I am re-re-re tax harvesting. I have enough realized losses to last multiple lifetimes. Now watch Congress eliminate the cap gains tax.
by newport1
Mon Sep 05, 2011 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Americans Turn to Gold Over Stocks
Replies: 57
Views: 6322

Americans Turn to Gold Over Stocks

This is a good sign for equities.

According to a new Gallup poll, “Thirty-four percent of Americans say gold is the best long-term investment, more than say so about four other types of investments.

http://247wallst.com/2011/08/26/america ... er-stocks/
by newport1
Fri Aug 26, 2011 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In a World Without Qualified Dividends ... ?
Replies: 25
Views: 3406

Don't forget the tax benefit of ETFs not passing along capital gains. They will become more valuable if taxes on capital gains rise. Less so if the moves to not tax mutual fund gains pass. Isn't it the case that, because VG ETFs are structured as separate share classes of VG funds, they will have t...
by newport1
Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case for Equities
Replies: 61
Views: 5727

It seems to me that maybe the best reason to own equities is because so many people believe there is no reason to own equities.
by newport1
Sun Aug 14, 2011 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reason to be bullish
Replies: 36
Views: 3543

He said "capitulation!" He said "capitulation!" You're out of the woods, you're out of the dark you're out of the night! Step into the sun, step into the light! Keep straight ahead for the most glorious place on the face of the earth or the sky! Hold onto your breath, hold onto your heart, hold ont...
by newport1
Sun Aug 14, 2011 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reason to be bullish
Replies: 36
Views: 3543

Perhaps but rather superficial. What is more important is current valuations, where the economy goes from here and how to factor in this new world where the Fed can't help much and the government does not have the will to act. If the economy improves, jobs are created, and earnings increase, equiti...
by newport1
Sun Aug 14, 2011 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reason to be bullish
Replies: 36
Views: 3543

What's the line of reasoning here? That because things appear to be stabilizing (and baring a larger meltdown in Europe) at some point everyone will realize it's safe to get back in the pool, as it were? That would make sense, but I'm new so I might be missing the implication. The implication is th...
by newport1
Sun Aug 14, 2011 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reason to be bullish
Replies: 36
Views: 3543

A reason to be bullish

Investors pulled the most money from global stock funds since 2008 in the past week as the Standard & Poor’s downgrade of Treasuries and the deepening European debt crisis prompted a flight into cash and gold. Funds that buy global equities suffered $3.5 billion in net withdrawals in the week ended ...
by newport1
Wed Aug 10, 2011 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing Correctly But Not
Replies: 8
Views: 1849

Re: Market Timing Correctly But Not

This is interesting. Bill Gross was right but still unable to make the right move to profit from being right. Also of note is KEN FISHER, who has been discussed here...apparently he's been betting equities will go up. Not a good bet so far and would have been a 20% better bet made today instead of ...
by newport1
Wed Aug 10, 2011 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard brokerage acct. missing link to update prices.
Replies: 2
Views: 545

I talked to them. The significant increase in trade volume was slowing down the brokerage system so they disabled the function. No word on when it will be re-established.
by newport1
Tue Aug 09, 2011 1:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Party is over - Stocks are up
Replies: 54
Views: 7627

down 1% ish at 11:45 PT.
by newport1
Mon Aug 08, 2011 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedge fund redemptions causing market crash?
Replies: 33
Views: 4111

There is an article in tomorrow's WSJ (you need a subscription) that asserts HFs have been selling frantically, partially to raise cash for redemptions.
by newport1
Mon Aug 08, 2011 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bear market starting tomorrow?
Replies: 26
Views: 4078

Senin wrote:I thought the Dow at 10,248 hits the Bear. 20% from its high. I may have miscalculated.
You are probably right with respect to the DJIA (although I think the transports are already in a bear). I was looking at the S&P 500.
by newport1
Mon Aug 08, 2011 10:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedge fund redemptions causing market crash?
Replies: 33
Views: 4111

I just read that Geoge Soros is closing his hedge fund and returning investors' money. That already happened and has nothing to do with today. Today wasn't all about our debt downgrade, it is about the coming global financial meltdown. 2008 was the start with the banks - who had the gov't to prop t...
by newport1
Mon Aug 08, 2011 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedge fund redemptions causing market crash?
Replies: 33
Views: 4111

I don't know the answer, but there was a 1987 vs 2008 debate just now on CNBC. I tend to think that this is panic selling and a liquidity crisis rather than pricing in a global economic slowdown, but I have no clue.
by newport1
Mon Aug 08, 2011 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bear market starting tomorrow?
Replies: 26
Views: 4078

Re: Bear market starting tomorrow?

Huh? It is the standard way a bear is measured--20% decline from the high (based on closing prices). BTW, the Russell 2000 and oil are in bear markets as of today. Update--based on futures, the S&P 500 is about in a new bear market. We will see what tomorrow brings. The market high (S&P 500) was ~1...
by newport1
Mon Aug 08, 2011 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bear market starting tomorrow?
Replies: 26
Views: 4078

Re: Bear market starting tomorrow?

I believe the S&P 500 is only about 30 points from entering a bear market. Says who? A statement like that reeks of technical analysis. Huh? It is the standard way a bear is measured--20% decline from the high (based on closing prices). BTW, the Russell 2000 and oil are in bear markets as of today....
by newport1
Mon Aug 08, 2011 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bear market starting tomorrow?
Replies: 26
Views: 4078

mosu wrote:The S&P 500 has been in a downward trend for the past 12 years and you're telling me that we're just now entering a bear market?
The bear would be measured off the 4/29 high. The SPY is down about 18% vs that high.
by newport1
Mon Aug 08, 2011 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bear market starting tomorrow?
Replies: 26
Views: 4078

Bear market starting tomorrow?

I believe the S&P 500 is only about 30 points from entering a bear market. Futures are already half way there. Could tomorrow be the day? Stock Futures Americas INDEX VALUE CHANGE OPEN HIGH LOW TIME DJIA INDEX 10,549.00 -177.00 10,733.00 10,748.00 10,535.00 21:28 S&P 500 1,092.70 -18.60 1,113.70 1,1...
by newport1
Mon Aug 08, 2011 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone rebalancing into stocks?
Replies: 2
Views: 618

Re: Anyone rebalancing into stocks?

Jagman wrote:If so, what is your trigger? Set time during year? 1% off your target allocation? 5% off? Suggestions? ...ready to be brave, but scared to be foolish. Thanks.
I've been DCAing into my targets so I've been buying. Futures are down so probably buying more tomorrow.
by newport1
Mon Aug 08, 2011 6:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Welcome to the No-Pain, No-Gain Economy
Replies: 17
Views: 2380

And who do you propose be in charge of "distributing" income? Not distributing income, but distributing pain. That's what the unspoken drift of Rick's thoughtful article was alerting us to — and what the political process will be all about in the decades to come. In that case a more appropriate cha...
by newport1
Mon Aug 08, 2011 6:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Welcome to the No-Pain, No-Gain Economy
Replies: 17
Views: 2380

Thanks for the thoughtful article, Rick. It's hard to disagree with your conclusion that we will all experience financial pain over the coming decades, on the path to economic progress. But let's just hope this future pain is a bit more fairly distributed throughout our society than it has been in ...
by newport1
Mon Aug 08, 2011 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else make money today (Monday August 8th)
Replies: 21
Views: 2563

My company made money, as it does most days. Come to think of it, the companies in my portfolio probably made money also.
by newport1
Mon Aug 08, 2011 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else buy equities today?
Replies: 102
Views: 12351

fishndoc wrote:If stocks are such a great bargain today, did you load up in August 2010? Today's price on TSM is still up 15% from that low.

Not saying one shouldn't rebalance today, just trying to keep things in perspective.
yes
by newport1
Mon Aug 08, 2011 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else buy equities today?
Replies: 102
Views: 12351

Big rebalance day for me.
by newport1
Mon Aug 08, 2011 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12340
Views: 2128821

VIX is up 46%! Fear is rampant.
by newport1
Sun Aug 07, 2011 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are there any good books on economics out there?
Replies: 50
Views: 4799

In addition to Freedman, Hayek, and Von Mises, I highly recommend this: http://www.google.com/products/catalog?client=safari&rls=en&q=capitalism+reisman&oe=UTF-8&um=1&hl=en&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.&biw=1024&bih=621&ie=UTF-8&tbm=shop&cid=10992869682563375607&sa=X&ei=ybY-TuWJBcSzsAL8qaGBAw&ved=0CFYQ8wIw...