Search found 577 matches

by dc81584
Tue Feb 23, 2016 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in Sports
Replies: 13
Views: 1819

Re: Investing in Sports

I wouldn't even entertain the idea.
by dc81584
Mon Feb 22, 2016 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shark tank advice
Replies: 48
Views: 7658

Re: Shark tank advice

There are probably quite a few here who watch Shark Tank.Great show.AARP had a nice article where they interviewed all the sharks and asked their advice on many financial matters. Kevin O'Leary,Mr.Wonderful,advised never buy a stock that does not pay a dividend.Always get paid.Suggested 50 pct bond...
by dc81584
Mon Feb 22, 2016 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to cut AA to international?
Replies: 45
Views: 5006

Re: Time to cut AA to international?

Cut it if you want, but don't do it because of recent history; instead, do it because you're uncomfortable with your international allocation. Otherwise, stay the course. Additionally, U.S. stocks are currently more highly valued than international stocks. That's not exactly a recipe for U.S. outper...
by dc81584
Mon Feb 15, 2016 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Newly on my own investing and need some guidance from the powers that be
Replies: 13
Views: 1578

Re: Newly on my own investing and need some guidance from the powers that be

International equity allocation of 5%? Won't make enough difference to matter. If you're inclined to invest internationally, make it at least 25% of your overall equity allocation.
by dc81584
Mon Feb 15, 2016 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It sure looks like a good time to invest in oil
Replies: 111
Views: 16198

Re: It sure looks like a good time to invest in oil

If you're a long-term investor, yes, it's likely that you'll come out on top. Just be sure to buy stable, diversified, integrated oil and gas companies. Don't take the bait for that MLP (Master Limited Partnership) crap.
by dc81584
Fri Feb 12, 2016 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any regrets by people 50+ for having a conservative portfolio in their 30's
Replies: 68
Views: 9750

Re: Any regrets by people 50+ for having a conservative portfolio in their 30's

At age 30, it's probably best to have an 80/20 allocation. Having a conservative portfolio at such a young age only guarantees you a lower long-term rate of return. I wasn't aware there were any guarantees in this business! :P Point taken; however, over several decades, I am more than comfortable b...
by dc81584
Fri Feb 12, 2016 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any regrets by people 50+ for having a conservative portfolio in their 30's
Replies: 68
Views: 9750

Re: Any regrets by people 50+ for having a conservative portfolio in their 30's

At age 30, it's probably best to have an 80/20 allocation. Having a conservative portfolio at such a young age only guarantees you a lower long-term rate of return.
by dc81584
Fri Feb 12, 2016 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it starting to smell like opportunity?
Replies: 32
Views: 4527

Re: Is it starting to smell like opportunity?

U.S. stocks are still expensive; they are merely less expensive than they were a year ago. I smell something too, but I call it overvaluation.
by dc81584
Wed Feb 10, 2016 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Target Date
Replies: 10
Views: 1505

Re: Target Date

Here is follow up information: The ER is 0.09% for the following 2055 target date fund offered through our 457 plan: Underlying fund holdings: Equity Index Fund E (US Large Cap) 40.7 % BlackRock MSCI ACWI ex IMI Index Fund E (International Stocks) 30.6% Developed Real Estate Index Fund E (Developed...
by dc81584
Tue Feb 09, 2016 2:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vacation Homes
Replies: 78
Views: 12002

Re: Vacation Homes

I think that unless you are very wealthy, a vacation home is bad idea. Vacation homes involve a lot of extra expense and a lot of extra trouble. It is much easier and cheaper to just rent a house when you go on vacation than to own a vacation home. In most cases, when you sell the vacation home, th...
by dc81584
Tue Feb 09, 2016 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thank goodness for my precious metals
Replies: 63
Views: 5167

Re: Thank goodness for my precious metals

Need as in you absolutely need a hedge, diversification, an alternative Avenue to encourage your portfolio. The wealthier you are, the more PM you should have in your portfolio. The wealthier you are, the more property you should have too. My networth is shy of a million dollars and you can bet I w...
by dc81584
Tue Feb 09, 2016 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Target Date
Replies: 10
Views: 1505

Re: Target Date

it doesn't do much either way. In my opinion, though, it is unnecessary.
by dc81584
Tue Feb 09, 2016 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to respond to a siblings who gloats over a great stock pick?
Replies: 51
Views: 4750

Re: How to respond to a siblings who gloats over a great stock pick?

Just tell him that his approach is too risky for your taste, but be sure to congratulate him on his success.
by dc81584
Mon Feb 08, 2016 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Invest in an International Index Fund?
Replies: 12
Views: 2034

Re: Why Invest in an International Index Fund?

Endpoints are everything in examining past performance. International has not done well in US dollar terms for the past several years, so any time frame ending today will show poor performance. International has outperformed US at many times in the past, and I strongly believe it will do so again. ...
by dc81584
Mon Feb 08, 2016 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are US Stocks Overvalued?
Replies: 23
Views: 3292

Re: Are US Stocks Overvalued?

CAPE-10; underwhelming global growth, deflationary pressures in certain markets, and my own general sense of things. To be honest with you, I think they are QUITE overvalued.
by dc81584
Mon Feb 08, 2016 2:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My Megacorp offered a pension lump sum option today...
Replies: 87
Views: 11906

Re: My Megacorp offered a pension buyout today...

Good for you re: deciding not to take the lump sum. They wouldn't offer the lump sum unless it benefits them.
by dc81584
Mon Feb 08, 2016 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are US Stocks Overvalued?
Replies: 23
Views: 3292

Re: Are US Stocks Overvalued?

They sure are. Still.
by dc81584
Mon Feb 08, 2016 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 24Yrs old, 158k inheritance, make a diversified drip?
Replies: 13
Views: 1719

Re: 24Yrs old, 158k inheritance, make a diversified drip?

A diversified DRIP is so 1960s and an obsolete way to invest. The modern way is to use passively-managed low-expense-ratio well-diversified index mutual funds that can be bought and sold without paying any commissions. I see no need to talk to a broker, financial sales rep, nor CPA. I do see a need...
by dc81584
Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to get a 200k+/year job?
Replies: 107
Views: 14925

Re: How to get a 200k+/year job?

I don't know if I trust everyone who says they make $200,000 at such a young age. People lie all the time because they lack self-esteem.
by dc81584
Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [Am I getting a bad deal from my financial planner?]
Replies: 58
Views: 5597

Re: Am I getting screwed?

Yup! Fire this guy immediately.
by dc81584
Mon Feb 01, 2016 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The failure of valuation predictions
Replies: 124
Views: 11599

Re: The failure of valuation predictions

Homer This is about as simple an issue as there is in finance. When you buy a bond the expected return is the interest rate MINUS any "expected" default losses. With Treasuries, that's zero. When you buy a stock it works the same way, only instead of interest rate/price you get earnings yield, or E...
by dc81584
Fri Jan 29, 2016 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The last 15 years
Replies: 100
Views: 15281

Re: The last 15 years

...The higher the price, the lower the return. The lower the price, the higher the return. Is this TRULY difficult to understand? The CAPE is lower now (Jan 1, 2016 = 23.93) than it was 10 years ago (Jan 1, 2006 = 26.47) or 20 years ago (Jan 1, 1996 = 24.76). Are you saying that because it's lower ...
by dc81584
Fri Jan 29, 2016 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The last 15 years
Replies: 100
Views: 15281

Re: The last 15 years

For the first AND last time, CAPE-10 can be a decent indicator of lower or higher intermediate-term forward returns. It's amazing how many people think they are A) smarter than Robert Shiller and B) slick enough to put words in his mouth and expect to gain credibility by doing so. Give it up. The ma...
by dc81584
Fri Jan 29, 2016 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The last 15 years
Replies: 100
Views: 15281

Re: The last 15 years

This is a very rough calculation (I'm sure someone can do it better – I've simply used total return and not calculated dividends separately) if the market corrects by about 50% (which some suggest it needs to): The money you invested in Jan 2001 - has made 1% a year - $10,000 invested is now worth ...
by dc81584
Tue Jan 26, 2016 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any reason not to invest in a Vanguard fund that rebalances?
Replies: 41
Views: 4132

Re: Any reason not to invest in a Vanguard fund that rebalances?

I cannot think of a single [compelling] reason NOT to invest in such a fund.
by dc81584
Tue Jan 26, 2016 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what point would you go from 70/30 to 100(stocks)/0(bonds) if you are in your late twenties
Replies: 48
Views: 4806

Re: At what point would you go from 70/30 to 100(stocks)/0(bonds) if you are in your late twenties

I'm pretty darn risk tolerant, and I'm 90/10. Having said that, the bull market is getting long in the tooth, at least as far as valuations are concerned. Now is not the time to ramp up your equity exposure. Stay at 70/30 and turn up the heat (but not to 100/0) after the market drops much further. Y...
by dc81584
Tue Jan 26, 2016 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your favorite Financial Quote or Metaphor??
Replies: 179
Views: 16361

Re: What is your favorite Financial Quote or Metaphor??

"Keep investing simple." -- lots of people
by dc81584
Tue Jan 26, 2016 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bought a bunch of stocks today
Replies: 46
Views: 7017

Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

I think you might be catching a falling knife, but given that you're only 24 years old, it hardly matters. You'll be very pleased with your financial situation 40 years down the road.
by dc81584
Tue Jan 26, 2016 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Switch from 75/25 US/Int to 60/40 US/Int
Replies: 9
Views: 1223

Re: Switch from 75/25 US/Int to 60/40 US/Int

Do it by investing new money.
by dc81584
Sat Jan 23, 2016 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Going from 50/50 US/Int to All US
Replies: 80
Views: 7611

Re: Going from 50/50 US/Int to All US

visualguy wrote:
dc81584 wrote: 16-17 years is NOT long-term.
Not long-term for a rock or maybe even a tree, but definitely long-term for a human being.
It took the NASDAQ 15 years to return to it's pre-meltdown level, and it hasn't even held it as of late. 15 years is great if you buy at a fair price.
by dc81584
Sat Jan 23, 2016 2:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you use the service of a CPA or you do your tax yourself?
Replies: 88
Views: 8638

Re: Do you use the service of a CPA or you do your tax yourself?

My taxes are simple and straightforward. I wouldn't dream of paying a CPA to do what takes me all of one hour.
by dc81584
Sat Jan 23, 2016 2:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I hurting myself by saving too much? (re: college funding)
Replies: 104
Views: 10210

Re: Am I hurting myself by saving too much? (re: college funding)

This is indeed a stupid thread. I can't even decide which side I'm on because the statements on both sides are so incredibly dumb.
by dc81584
Sat Jan 23, 2016 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Going from 50/50 US/Int to All US
Replies: 80
Views: 7611

Re: Going from 50/50 US/Int to All US

Guys...these are exactly the kind of responses I needed to hear. Thanks for telling me what I know deep down... but forgot because of the recent underperformance . I'll just stay the course and stay at 50/50...and I really like the idea of moving only 5% per year towards more US if I feel like I ne...
by dc81584
Sat Jan 23, 2016 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Going from 50/50 US/Int to All US
Replies: 80
Views: 7611

Re: Going from 50/50 US/Int to All US

JonnyDVM wrote:Buy high sell low. Not a winning strategy.
+1

Stay at 50/50. You will kick yourself for making such a drastic change, as U.S. equities are highly valued. This could be a huge behavioral mistake.
by dc81584
Sat Jan 23, 2016 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: who is buying or selling ??
Replies: 27
Views: 2714

Re: who is buying or selling ??

renue74 wrote:I don't know about "market being on sale" now. It's the price of spring 2014.

https://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXS ... OV2AajjLN4
+1. Stocks are still very expensive, despite the recent correction.
by dc81584
Sat Jan 23, 2016 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 23 years old - need help with 401k allocations
Replies: 3
Views: 446

Re: 23 years old - need help with 401k allocations

Since your 401k is likely to be getting the largest inflow of money, you will likely find it necessary (and convenient) to hold bonds in your 401k and international in Roth IRA. I would do it that way for several reasons. First is that I'd rather not fill a Roth IRA with bonds (although I don't min...
by dc81584
Sat Jan 23, 2016 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I change our asset allocation?
Replies: 10
Views: 1116

Re: Should I change our asset allocation?

You should gradually adjust to 80/20, as 60/40, in my opinion, isn't nearly aggressive enough for someone with a time horizon of 30-40 years. With such a long time horizon, staying at 60/40 would merely guarantee that you earn a lower return on your investments. Once you get to a time horizon of app...
by dc81584
Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why buy now, why not wait until the market really crashes??
Replies: 79
Views: 12966

Re: Why buy now, why not wait until the market really crashes??

I haven't bought the correction yet, but it's not because I don't think it's hit bottom. It's merely because I still feel that stocks are overvalued. I would like to see the S&P lose another 10% before I invest more money than I already am. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 1,700 would work for me. O...
by dc81584
Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Starting to panic, advice for the market downturn.
Replies: 25
Views: 3350

Re: Starting to panic, advice for the market downturn.

swl wrote:Vote for cash. It sucks that you're down but that money shouldn't have been in stocks to begin with. Anything you need in the next five years (maybe even ten?) really shouldn't be in stocks. Hoping it comes back before six months is up is really just gambling.
+1
by dc81584
Wed Jan 20, 2016 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is your action plan?
Replies: 43
Views: 3537

Re: What is your action plan?

Call_Me_Op wrote:
dc81584 wrote:To be quite frank, the market is only down 10%-ish. Stocks are still way overvalued.


According to what or whom? The market as a whole believes the price is appropriate.
The market gets out of whack from time to time. Prices, in aggregate, are nowhere near appropriate.
by dc81584
Tue Jan 19, 2016 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is your action plan?
Replies: 43
Views: 3537

Re: What is your action plan?

To be quite frank, the market is only down 10%-ish. Stocks are still way overvalued. Just continue with your original plan of action. If it drops another 10% or more, then you might wish to consider dumping a little more money in, but even then, stocks might not yet be a steal.
by dc81584
Tue Jan 19, 2016 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I use some of my emergency fund to buy cheap stocks right now?
Replies: 36
Views: 5273

Re: Should I use some of my emergency fund to buy cheap stocks right now?

Nope. An emergency fund is for emergencies, and stocks still aren't cheap.
by dc81584
Tue Jan 19, 2016 6:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Do You Need to Diversify by Fund Company?"
Replies: 51
Views: 5147

Re: "Do You Need to Diversify by Fund Company?"

All of my investments are with Vanguard. I sleep quite well at night. If all of my investments were with Fidelity, or T. Rowe Price I'd still sleep quite well at night. Keep in mind that all of my investments are in index funds.
by dc81584
Tue Jan 19, 2016 6:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allocation question - change now?
Replies: 13
Views: 1256

Re: Allocation question - change now?

My two cents: 55/45 and 50/50 are both sensible and, in the case of the latter, conceptually beautiful. I wouldn't worry too much about a 5% drift either way.