Search found 2287 matches

by matt
Fri Jun 03, 2011 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The credit bubble's back - start taking profits
Replies: 119
Views: 18846

April 27, 2011: Okay folks. On March 16, in the heat of the nuclear reactor meltdown scare, I told you to buy stocks. You probably didn't, but I'm going to follow up anyway. For the second time in a row, I called an intermediate market bottom within several hours of the event occurring, while the ma...
by matt
Thu Jun 02, 2011 12:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894
Replies: 24
Views: 3658

Re: The Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894

In New York in 1900, the population of 100,000 horses produced 2.5 million pounds of horse manure per day


In this century, the horses' role of manure production has being fulfilled by politicians.
by matt
Thu Jun 02, 2011 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (May 2011)
Replies: 10
Views: 1768

Yeah the last day in May helped, but gave most of it back to the start of June. Went from +17% YTD in April to only +8% at the end of May. Ahead of my benchmark VT a bit after trailing in during the first quarter. You lost 8% in May? You were given clear advice on how to do better: http://www.bogle...
by matt
Sun May 29, 2011 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are You a Defensive or Enterprising Investor?
Replies: 20
Views: 2284

A competent value investor is an enterprising investor, but in my opinion is also less likely to incur serious losses than a defensive (passive) investor.
by matt
Sun May 29, 2011 10:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How big is your emergency fund?
Replies: 158
Views: 19954

We have taxable brokerage accounts at 3 different institutions. We have retirement accounts at 4 different institutions. Does anyone remember back in 1999 how some investors thought they were diversifying by splitting their assets between 5 U.S. Large Growth funds? Sure, they reduced their unsystem...
by matt
Thu May 26, 2011 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Beware of experts making predictions...
Replies: 4
Views: 814

Re: Beware of experts making predictions...

Even if you predicted the market flawlessly from year-end 2003 to September 2008, all your work would have been for naught if you failed to predict the sell-off that followed the failure of Lehman Brothers. I have no idea what it means. Do you? It sure sounds like he's saying that not predicting th...
by matt
Wed May 25, 2011 6:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How big is your emergency fund?
Replies: 158
Views: 19954

We've been through what constitutes an emergency on this forum many times. So far, only bail money seems to be the only thing that needs cash in 2 hours. What you have shown is that not all emergencies are financial emergencies. But that does not mean that there are no financial emergencies. Please...
by matt
Wed May 25, 2011 5:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How big is your emergency fund?
Replies: 158
Views: 19954

What was the emergency? What you described was the environment. It doesn't matter what the emergency was and it didn't actually have to be related to the attacks themselves, it just seemed like a good narrative. The fact is that the U.S. markets were closed for everyone for those 4 days, whether yo...
by matt
Wed May 25, 2011 4:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How big is your emergency fund?
Replies: 158
Views: 19954

I'd like to hear responses from those folks who say that they don't need an emergency fund separate from their portfolio. Scenario: It's September 11, 2001. You (or someone you love) is directly impacted by terrorist attacks. Due to this, you or they need an immediate source of cash, let's say $5,00...
by matt
Wed May 25, 2011 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skeptical Bogle on Fox news
Replies: 29
Views: 5477

I was astonished to read in The House that Bogle Built that in the March 1999 letter to shareholders of the Five Hundred Index fund... My point is not "he called it"... It sure was well-timed, though. Interesting how this works. In the past year, I have predicted four stock market turning...
by matt
Mon May 23, 2011 4:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For Dr. Bernstein on Bond Duration
Replies: 111
Views: 20456

Re: What Dummies!

OK, so as I understand it, Meltzer's a math illiterate and Taylor doesn't know how to relate monetary policy, economic growth, and inflation. Or do I have that reversed? Bill Taylor appears to suffer some innumeracy. Meltzer was just wrong in assuming the present trend would continue. It happens. I...
by matt
Mon May 23, 2011 4:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For Dr. Bernstein on Bond Duration
Replies: 111
Views: 20456

Any bond duration longer than a year will increase your portfolio's equity correlation; up to a year there is no correlation. In a high inflation period, this will probably be true. But it has been false for at least the last decade as Treasury bond returns have been negatively correlated to equiti...
by matt
Mon May 23, 2011 3:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For Dr. Bernstein on Bond Duration
Replies: 111
Views: 20456

Alright, we've got Alan Meltzer and John Taylor predicting hyperinflation. My Google searches didn't turn up many hits on this, but here's what I found. John Taylor, in May 2009, predicted "hyperinflation" of 100% over 10 years. http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/05/27/john-taylors...
by matt
Mon May 23, 2011 2:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Schwab asset transfer offer
Replies: 44
Views: 5937

Re: Schwab asset transfer offer

donner wrote:Recently got a call from my schwab rep who offered $1,200 cash if i transferred $500,000 in vanguard assets to my schwab account by end of May.


Interesting offer. But how does Schwab even know you have a $500,000+ account at Vanguard?
by matt
Mon May 23, 2011 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Message to Young Investors: Save and Grow Rich
Replies: 57
Views: 8293

I don't think the mutation necessarily occured post-fertilization of the egg, it easily could have occured before implying the chicken-like thing that produced the chicken is actually carrying chicken ovaries. Aka, it's a chicken A chicken-like thing that has chicken ovaries is still not a chicken....
by matt
Mon May 23, 2011 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Market - Historical Worst Case ... When? What?
Replies: 19
Views: 3452

nisiprius wrote:I'm a little worried about that though because I don't think there was a 9% drop on a single day even in 2008.


Oh, it happened all right. There was a couple days where the market was down over 8% and a couple days when it was up over 8%. We probably won't see anything that fun again for a while.
by matt
Mon May 23, 2011 10:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For Dr. Bernstein on Bond Duration
Replies: 111
Views: 20456

Honestly, I really don't sense "hyperbole" in Dr. Bernstein's posts here; I do though in yours. Look up the definition of hyperinflation, which Bernstein claims a fairly high probability; hyperinflation is not just "high" inflation. Then look up the definition of hyperbole. If y...
by matt
Mon May 23, 2011 10:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For Dr. Bernstein on Bond Duration
Replies: 111
Views: 20456

That, I think, is the key. Some posters on this thread have laughed at the risk of hyperinflation, and, I'm assuming, rate its probability at less than, say, 5%. How can they be so sure? I think there's a risk of it, but there may be a 50% chance I'm wrong. We are in terra nova here; never before h...
by matt
Mon May 23, 2011 8:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is marriage a wealth-building institution?
Replies: 144
Views: 14343

Re: Is marriage a wealth-building institution?

Furthermore, if a young man in America is interested in becoming wealthy, is getting married a wise idea? If I had to make a list of things you should work on in order to become wealthy, I don't think "Get married" would make the list. That doesn't mean that marriage can't be beneficial t...
by matt
Mon May 23, 2011 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: linkedin ipo
Replies: 65
Views: 5112

Re: Initial pricing for IPOs

By what criteria was it considered a failure? The IPO price for Google was for $85/share, and the stock opened at $100. It took four weeks before it increased more than 1/3 beyond its IPO price. Google's offering price of $85 came in well below expectations because the demand seemed insufficient. W...
by matt
Sun May 22, 2011 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Repression/Corporate Bonds
Replies: 3
Views: 837

Part of it is a potentially legitimate view that Federal Reserve buying of Treasury bonds is artificially reducing Treasury yields, but is not impacting corporate bonds equally. There may be some small truth to this, but given the modest spread between corporate and Treasury yields, it is no more th...
by matt
Sun May 22, 2011 4:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much to raise children (Seriously)
Replies: 54
Views: 5314

...it doesn't imply a 3000+ sqft mansion. 3,000 sqft is a mansion? Wow! I'm a lot closer to the super wealthy than I thought. Given your amazing ability to predict the market and identify the best fund managers I would suppose you would have to be... So you think 3,000 sqft is a mansion, too? I sup...
by matt
Sun May 22, 2011 1:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For Dr. Bernstein on Bond Duration
Replies: 111
Views: 20456

It is wise to challenge the Pascal's Wager argument, as it's original use in relation to belief in God is fallacious. As we are seeing, it is just as fallacious in investing. Matt, I fess up that I don't understand your point. But I THINK you are reinforcing these two issues I have with even the BO...
by matt
Sun May 22, 2011 12:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Getting charged extra for bread on a sandwich
Replies: 40
Views: 3807

And where is soda and chips not taxed but a sandwich is? It could be that the all-powerful corn subsidy lobby has managed to get sales tax relief on corn products, as well. Just a guess. And where is that tax? the sum of all the items before tax is $12.49, but the OP said that total bill was $12.49...
by matt
Sun May 22, 2011 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: linkedin ipo
Replies: 65
Views: 5112

I thought this from Joe Nocera, The New York Times, was interesting, especially the last two graphs: m This is pretty silly. Find me anyone who knew that LinkedIn, without a doubt, would go over $100 on the first day. Did Joe Nocera know it? Did you know it? No. Nobody knew this. Investor action is...
by matt
Sun May 22, 2011 11:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Getting charged extra for bread on a sandwich
Replies: 40
Views: 3807

sscritic wrote:And where is soda and chips not taxed but a sandwich is?


It could be that the all-powerful corn subsidy lobby has managed to get sales tax relief on corn products, as well. Just a guess.
by matt
Sun May 22, 2011 11:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For Dr. Bernstein on Bond Duration
Replies: 111
Views: 20456

I'm still a bit intellectually troubled by the Pascal's Wager argument, however, and perhaps you can help me with this. On it's face, PW would seem to support always taking a very conservative investment approach. Dr. Bill: I know this is off the bond topic (but still within the PW topic that the o...
by matt
Sun May 22, 2011 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much to raise children (Seriously)
Replies: 54
Views: 5314

interplanetjanet wrote:...it doesn't imply a 3000+ sqft mansion.


3,000 sqft is a mansion? Wow! I'm a lot closer to the super wealthy than I thought.
by matt
Sat May 21, 2011 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Case for Active Management
Replies: 84
Views: 6631

Five year returns for several small value index funds or ETFs with different indexes: 2.34, 2.37, 2.64, 3.88, 4.47, 5.48 Which one do you choose for the next 15 years? And if by chance you took one of the three on the left and it disappeared in 5 or 10 years how would you feel about index funds bei...
by matt
Sat May 21, 2011 4:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For Dr. Bernstein on Bond Duration
Replies: 111
Views: 20456

And to follow up with actual math from historical examples. All calculations assume annual rebalancing. 1991-2008 Japan (see data here http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=432434&highlight=#432434 ): Portfolio with 50% stocks/50% T-bills returned -0.01% per year Portfolio with 50% sto...
by matt
Sat May 21, 2011 3:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For Dr. Bernstein on Bond Duration
Replies: 111
Views: 20456

Re: Both sides

If I'm wrong, and I well may be, I've lost a few percent of yield. If you're wrong, you will suffer far more serious losses. While this is true solely in respect to the choice of bond maturity, there is no reason to believe that it is true in respect to the total portfolio return. The portfolio ret...
by matt
Sat May 21, 2011 12:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For Dr. Bernstein on Bond Duration
Replies: 111
Views: 20456

It seems fairly clear to me that Mr. Bernstein, like most investors, became a victim of recency bias in his early investing years. The rising interest rates in the 1960's-70's created a persistent fear that rate increases are always just around the corner. This is no different than the stock perma-b...
by matt
Fri May 20, 2011 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Case for Active Management
Replies: 84
Views: 6631

I'm still waiting to hear who is going to outperform the market over the next 15 years so I can put in my buy order. Anyone? I am going to outperform, but you can't order me. Aww man. Does anybody besides Matt know the future here?? Even better, someone who manages a public fund? Surely there must ...
by matt
Fri May 20, 2011 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Case for Active Management
Replies: 84
Views: 6631

floydtime wrote:I'm still waiting to hear who is going to outperform the market over the next 15 years so I can put in my buy order. Anyone?


I am going to outperform, but you can't order me.
by matt
Fri May 20, 2011 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I allocate 10% to 'junk bonds'?
Replies: 27
Views: 3224

Re: Should I allocate 10% to 'junk bonds'?

Based on a model portfolio published by Rick Ferri in the WSJ, I began to re-think my AA policy with regard to specific funds. My overall policy is unchanged at 50/50, but I began to think about allocating 10% to VG High Yield Corp (VWEHX). I posted my new proposed AA specifics at http://www.bogleh...
by matt
Fri May 20, 2011 1:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For Dr. Bernstein on Bond Duration
Replies: 111
Views: 20456

Re: Chiming in

wbern wrote:I'm actually amazed to see that since that interview in mid-October '10, VBMFX is up only about .6% on a total return basis; that's a lousy return/risk.


That's 0.6% more than a money market fund, isn't it?
by matt
Fri May 20, 2011 10:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Boglehead Hamburgers: Wendy's vs McDonalds
Replies: 107
Views: 10760

SP-diceman said something about teenagers making minimum wage. That used to be the case in the 80s and early 90s. Now at all the fast food places I go, it seems to be adults working there. Except for Chick-fil-A still has a few teenagers once in a while. Pretty telling about the sad state of the cu...
by matt
Thu May 19, 2011 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: linkedin ipo
Replies: 65
Views: 5112

How do we know who gets to sell them right away and who has to keep them for 6 months? How can one be a part of the either group? If you are an insider of a company that is going public, I'm pretty sure you'll know that you are an insider of a company that is going public. If you are not an insider...
by matt
Thu May 19, 2011 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: linkedin ipo
Replies: 65
Views: 5112

But that's not relevant to the cash inflow that Linkedin received - if Linkedin only received $45 per share today (yesterday), but the market priced their stock at $106 today, if you were Linkedin's board wouldn't you be upset? What happens with the stock price 6 months from now is not relevant to ...
by matt
Thu May 19, 2011 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYTimes: The Dave Ramsey 12% solution
Replies: 86
Views: 13935

I think Fishndoc was on to something earlier about why DR is so disliked... So something about Dave's religious beliefs turns people off? I really don't know anything about the guy or exactly what his beliefs are, but spending just a few minutes on his website is enough to know that he is a master ...
by matt
Thu May 19, 2011 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low volatility equity
Replies: 18
Views: 2148

Surely investing in TSM but with an increased allocation to risk-free assets would be a more efficient way to get to a desired low-risk portfolio? There has been a decent amount of research showing that lower beta/volatility equities outperform higher beta/volatility, so it is a superior strategy t...
by matt
Thu May 19, 2011 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: linkedin ipo
Replies: 65
Views: 5112

If you own it, you should probably sell today. Membership on LinkedIn is going to decline materially following the rapture.
by matt
Wed May 18, 2011 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond fund Mgr Jeff Gundlach:"I have a gift"
Replies: 38
Views: 4607

But seriously now...who has ever heard the word "apercu" before? I had to look it up. If using that word is not evidence of a gift, then I don't know what is.
by matt
Wed May 18, 2011 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Case for Active Management
Replies: 84
Views: 6631

Re: matt

Why you think it is hand waving is beyond me Given the huge underperformance it would be almost impossible to have a portfolio that underperformed picking stocks unless they all happened to choose small growth stocks. Or at least a large majority. Possible but not likely. I showed you various portf...
by matt
Wed May 18, 2011 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Case for Active Management
Replies: 84
Views: 6631

Re: Matt

Larry, I have not seen the articles. I have no idea what stocks they picked. I see foreign stock picks in such magazines all the time, so I don't know why I'm supposed to just rule them out. I forget who it was, but an active manager once said, "The easiest way to beat an index is to buy stocks...
by matt
Wed May 18, 2011 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Case for Active Management
Replies: 84
Views: 6631

Re: Matt

Matt first, what I showed you in the returns data that if you ran a regression it would be virtually impossible for it to show alpha. Any value stocks they had in the selection would have had or should have had huge premiums. And any large stocks would also be okay. It is only the small growth stoc...
by matt
Wed May 18, 2011 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Case for Active Management
Replies: 84
Views: 6631

Re: Matt

You have got to be kidding. If you have a single best idea and no constraints then clearly you are not adding value relative to the market. Now if the manager beat the market with a single idea that would not be adding alpha necessarily, because they might have taken more risk. so would have to ben...
by matt
Wed May 18, 2011 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Case for Active Management
Replies: 84
Views: 6631

Re: rps

The June 1998 issue of Money also provided us with evidence that the “overdiversification” excuse doesn’t hold water. Money, with assistance from Chicago consulting firm Performance Analytics, reviewed the performance of 22 private account managers whose performance placed them in the top 20 percen...
by matt
Wed May 18, 2011 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REIT market is changing, is your allocation?
Replies: 19
Views: 3229

The fates of Fannie and Freddie have not been decided, so it's premature to say who exactly will benefit from changes. And the discussion from the OP's link is only on Mortgage REITs, which are a fairly small portion of the REIT sector and NOT INCLUDED in most REIT index funds, which are focused on ...
by matt
Wed May 18, 2011 9:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My attic noise was a low frequency short!
Replies: 91
Views: 15173

Given the massive amount of information released on this topic, this poll should be a good test of the efficient market. The collective Boglehead wisdom will certainly know the right answer by a wide majority, even if individuals aren't sure, right? With just 7% of the votes coming in correctly, I'...