Search found 423 matches

by gbs
Mon Dec 15, 2008 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ex-Dividend date
Replies: 7
Views: 15024

Re: Ex-Dividend date

If you buy after the Record Date you don't receive the dividend.

walkinwood wrote:I would like to verify my understanding of an ex-dividend date as it applies to Mutual funds

If a fund says
Record Date: December 18, 2008
Ex Date: December 19, 2008
Payable Date:December 19, 2008

I assume it means that if I buy shares of the fund on Dec 19th, I will not receive the dividend.

Please confirm. Thank you.
by gbs
Sat Nov 15, 2008 7:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Loss Harvesting in Taxable
Replies: 6
Views: 2557

Re: Tax Loss Harvesting in Taxable

I have s significant (for me) loss in tax managed small cap. I have harvested losses on international holdings already, but feel I should go ahead and harvest on the small cap as well. I would plan to sell the lot as all are down a significant short term loss. A few questions: 1) Small cap growth or value fund or other recommended? I have heard historically sc growth rebounds sharper after a severe recession. If this is true, is that reason to go that way or stay away so I don't incurr large cap gains prior to (hopefully) reinvesting in tax managed small cap. 2) Where do I look in each particular funds info to see when they will be hit with cap gains tax for this period? 3) Is it 31 or 61 days before I can reinvest in tax managed small cap...
by gbs
Wed Nov 12, 2008 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Little-Known Tax Break for Bruised 529s
Replies: 12
Views: 2605

You have to run a few simulation with your CPA. If you combine 529 losses with short and long term investment loses in your taxable account you need to find the best combination before hitting the AMT.

In my case if I harvest only 529 loses I would be limited to 17K before I hit AMT but if I add in 3k in short term losses then the 529 loss can be 19K before I hit AMT.

Go figure!

gbs
by gbs
Thu Oct 23, 2008 3:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TLH question-Taylor or others
Replies: 17
Views: 4935

Re: conversion doesn't work to ETF's

Thanks again for all your help. I just talked to Vanguard and I can't do a conversion from my tax managed small cap and tax managed int. to an ETF's to avoid the redemption fees. So the only way I can do my TLHing is to sell my tax managed funds and pay the redemption fees, which total about 700.00. Taylor, I know you said in another post that this made sense do to if the redemption fees were about 300 dollars. Does it still make sense to TLH if it's going to cost me about 700 in redemption fees? I still have another 37K dollars in losses in the 500 index so I will be TLHing that account and moving into the VTSMX. Or if it makes sense to sell my TMSC, I would buy the total stock index. Thanks so much for all the great advice. You have to a...
by gbs
Thu Oct 23, 2008 1:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TLH question-Taylor or others
Replies: 17
Views: 4935

Re: year end distribution

Thanks for the great advice. I'm planning on selling my tax managed small cap and 500 index fund to purchase total stock market index fund. This will be for TLHing and also because it's makes sense for the long term. Does it make sense to do my TLHing in early Dec. to avoid possible fund distributions? Thanks again for all your help. As Taylor recommended I would do this trade now. See first http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/index.php/Specific_Identification_of_Shares Here is how it's done: SAMPLE EMAIL LETTER TO VANGUARD Joe Representative Vanguard July 1, 2007 Today I will sell the following specified shares online: XYZ shares Account #12345678 Date acquired # Shares cost/share Cost basis 3/24/06 3.601 $12.47 $44.90 12/28/05 241.66 $11.59 $...
by gbs
Thu Oct 23, 2008 12:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TLH question-Taylor or others
Replies: 17
Views: 4935

Re: avoid redemption fee?

cody3 wrote:Are you saying this would avoid the redemption fee?

Thanks
Yes, you will only pay the conversion fee ($50) and not the redemption fee (1%).

Also be careful when TLH small cap ans tax managed small cap funds. If you sell one to buy another you have to wait 31 days between transactions.

For example: exchange first VTMSX and buy NAESX then 31 days latter do the reverse otherwise it's a wash sale.

Regards, gbs
by gbs
Thu Oct 23, 2008 11:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TLH question-Taylor or others
Replies: 17
Views: 4935

Re: TLH question-Taylor or others

cody3 wrote:In my taxable account I have some losses that I'm considering selling to do TLH.
I've never done this before and have some questions.

I have about 27,000 in losses in the tax managed int. Is it possible to sell this fund being that I've held it less than 5 years? If so, can I immediately purchase total int. stock index and not have this be considered a wash?
Consider converting Tax managed international to the etf share class first. Then execute TLH. It will cost you $50 conversion plus 1 trade assuming you will buy total international fund.

Need to establish a brokerage account first though (takes 2 days online).

Regards, gbs
by gbs
Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lucky rabbit foot explained
Replies: 1
Views: 1201

Lucky rabbit foot explained

Insecure Minds Wired for Pattern-Finding
Larry O'Hanlon, Discovery News


Insecure Times

Oct. 2, 2008 -- A perfectly healthy human mind can trick itself into seeing things that are not there, and new research has exposed exactly the sort of conditions under which that happens.

It turns out that the less control a person feels, the more likely they are to see patterns or make connections that don't exist.
From : http://dsc.discovery.com/news/2008/10/0 ... rn-02.html

Trough: http://www.research-finance.com/

Hmm, interesting!

gbs
by gbs
Mon Oct 20, 2008 11:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Review - The Little Book of Bull Moves in a Bear Market
Replies: 6
Views: 2465

I'm just going to say this: if you want to hear average investors speaking listen to the Q&A section of his radio shows. http://www.europac.net/radioshow_archives.asp

It seems to me that his audience/clients are people that have no clue about investing and love to believe that he can see the future.

Also note that he is a broker not a financial adviser thus NO FIDUCIARY DUTY obligation.

gbs
by gbs
Fri Oct 17, 2008 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 17 years of returns: sobering (updated OP)
Replies: 123
Views: 28258

Image

stocks = S&P 500
bonds = total bond market

Starting year on the X axis.

Assumes periodic investments at year end of $30K. All values computed in real returns.

Seems that all stock comes ahead in the vast majority of periods.

gbs
by gbs
Tue Oct 14, 2008 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg: TIPS over 3.1%
Replies: 172
Views: 41463

more Sell/Buy 5000/5000 1 9128274Y5 T Tips (Tips) 378 01/15/2009 98.8203125/99-534 8.612/7.146 -/ AAA


Does this one has a payment left?

gbs
by gbs
Fri Oct 10, 2008 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A few thoughts...
Replies: 5
Views: 2208

Re: A few thoughts...

wab wrote:
gbs wrote:4. Prepare a list of tax swaps that you are comfortable with and be prepared to remain in the alternative funds/etf for the long run.
Such a list would be a great resource for the library. ;)
Problem is that it depends on your circumstance, taxes, horizon, complexity you are comfortable with etc. I don't think my list would be useful to anybody else.

gbs
by gbs
Fri Oct 10, 2008 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A few thoughts...
Replies: 5
Views: 2208

A few thoughts...

A few thoughts... 1. Relative to the average investor pure buy and holders have equal returns before expenses. And it applies to this sell-off as well. People that sell in the hope of re-entering the market latter will have equal performance with buy and holders before taxes and fees. But will lag B&H after fees and taxes are deducted. It's not a 50/50 shot that you will come ahead. Odds are against you. 2. Always have a plan. Never trade on emotions or with the herd. Following a written Asset Allocation policy is the best weapon against a bear market. You now know how it feels so maybe that policy needs adjusting. 3. If you need to TLH Vanguard funds with redemption fee ( VTMGX, VEIEX) consider first converting to etf and then TLH into...
by gbs
Fri Oct 10, 2008 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Mistakes & Bear Market memories
Replies: 24
Views: 5511

Recent event: convinced a fried to rebalance over the phone. Next thing I know he's at my house... I had to rebalance for him. If was to painful for him to even look at the portfolio!

gbs
by gbs
Fri Oct 10, 2008 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any buyers out there?
Replies: 23
Views: 5652

Bought massive amounts of VEIEX and SCZ in taxable almost out of dry powder. Next on the list is IWC.
by gbs
Fri Oct 10, 2008 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody unable to get credit?
Replies: 71
Views: 14268

Got HELOC approved for what I consider to be an over-assessed property @ prime -1%. Credit score 800.

Taking into account the fact that is tax deductible the rate seems a bargain to me in these times. I can't figure out how are they making any money on the loan.

gbs
by gbs
Thu Sep 25, 2008 10:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Poll: Best movie about finance!
Replies: 69
Views: 16897

Re: This is my #1

Nitsuj wrote:
gbs wrote:
Nitsuj wrote:
gbs wrote: So again, why is it illegal to watch?

gbs
Because it's a bootleg
OK, let me ask you another way then.

What is the penalty for watching?

gbs
That's still in flux now, isn't it. At the very least your ISP can cancel your connection.
Do you have one example to cite were the ISP canceled the connection to someone for watching Google videos?

gbs
by gbs
Thu Sep 25, 2008 10:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Poll: Best movie about finance!
Replies: 69
Views: 16897

Re: This is my #1

Nitsuj wrote:
gbs wrote: So again, why is it illegal to watch?

gbs
Because it's a bootleg
OK, let me ask you another way then.

What is the penalty for watching?

gbs
by gbs
Thu Sep 25, 2008 10:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Poll: Best movie about finance!
Replies: 69
Views: 16897

Re: This is my #1

Nitsuj wrote:
gbs wrote:
Nitsuj wrote:
gbs wrote:Can probably find the whole movie on Google.
Or you could legally watch it by buying, borrowing or renting...
Was not aware that it is illegal to watch the movie on Google. Could you provide some references?

Thanks, gbs
Sure, the only copy of the whole movie viewable on videos.google.com was uploaded by someone that also uploaded a whole slew of bootleg concert videos. Everything else is just a trailer.

If you can view something legally online it's OBVIOUS that you are allowed to.
So again, why is it illegal to watch?

gbs
by gbs
Thu Sep 25, 2008 10:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Poll: Best movie about finance!
Replies: 69
Views: 16897

Re: This is my #1

Nitsuj wrote:
gbs wrote:Can probably find the whole movie on Google.
Or you could legally watch it by buying, borrowing or renting...
Was not aware that it is illegal to watch the movie on Google. Could you provide some references?

Thanks, gbs
by gbs
Thu Sep 25, 2008 3:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Poll: Best movie about finance!
Replies: 69
Views: 16897

This is my #1

Enron The Smartest guys in the room

Here's the trailer:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0zMakN-EMLg

Can probably find the whole movie on Google.

edit: here's a snipet: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvLZBv8HsO4

Regards, gbs
by gbs
Fri Aug 29, 2008 3:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows XP Won't Start -- Welcome Your Help
Replies: 42
Views: 10419

Since you have sensitive information on it before you do anything I would back-up a Hard Drive image on a external Hard Disk Drive (can connect trough USB).

I recommend http://www.clonezilla.org/ for the backup.

Whatever you try after that if something bad happens during recovery you can rewrite back the hdd image and give it one more try.

Regards, gbs

P.S. Also if you do a clean install, after you finish installing all applications and before you copy back your data do another hdd image backup. Next time you will not need to reinstall just use clonezilla to restore.
by gbs
Sun Aug 17, 2008 12:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heard this one?
Replies: 0
Views: 1255

Heard this one?

Oil prices down on news that gold supplies are being hoarded by Michael Phelps!

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/17/sport ... ref=sports

Regards, gbs
by gbs
Thu Aug 07, 2008 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: El-Erian says to dump US stocks
Replies: 23
Views: 7749

Re: El-Erian says to dump US stocks

Lbill wrote: He recommends having just 50% in stocks and, of that, just 30% in U.S. companies. That would mean just 15% of an overall portfolio invested in American stocks.

Emerging economies are buying developed countries' assets on the cheap and thus will be first to benefit when global deleveraging is complete.
I'm confused: Don't buy US because emerging economies are buying and so their stock will go up first when the developed economies recover?

Regards, gbs
by gbs
Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Discouraging Nature from decimating my vegetable garden
Replies: 16
Views: 4902

Chicken wire here. Noting else works for my yard.

I have blackberries and raspberries which I had to completely fence (including the top).

Good luck, gbs
by gbs
Sat Jun 28, 2008 12:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help with a name for a seafood restaurant
Replies: 168
Views: 76789

The Pearl
by gbs
Mon Jun 23, 2008 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research paper from DFA agains using CCF such as GSCI.
Replies: 12
Views: 3622

A few observations: 1. GSCI (from what I understand) is a market type index for CCF. I think it is appropriate to use back filled return data as long as fund expenses are accounted for. 2. As a market type index GSCI does not include one component of returns that is included in other non market type commodity indexes (such as DJAIG): the re-balancing bonus between 2.5% to 3.5%. A remark can be made that other non-market CCF indexes benefit from hindsight when deciding on their asset allocation such as to maximize return including the re-balancing bonus. And here lies the crux of the problem: will this extra return from the past repeat in the future? The old mantra: in aggregate all commodity investors will get the commodities market return ...
by gbs
Mon Jun 23, 2008 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research paper from DFA agains using CCF such as GSCI.
Replies: 12
Views: 3622

Research paper from DFA agains using CCF such as GSCI.

Added to the library Commodities topic:
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=59


Commodity futures in portfolios
by: Truman A. Clark
December 2004
https://my.dimensional.com/local/us/med ... folios.pdf

Research paper from DFA against using CCF such as GSCI.

Regards, gbs
by gbs
Mon Jun 23, 2008 12:25 pm
Forum: Wiki and Reference Library
Topic: Commodities (--> Wiki)
Replies: 10
Views: 38888

29.

Commodity futures in portfolios
by: Truman A. Clark
December 2004
https://my.dimensional.com/local/us/med ... folios.pdf

Research paper from DFA against using CCF such as GSCI.


Return to the Table of Contents
by gbs
Sat Jun 21, 2008 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You know it's a bad day...
Replies: 28
Views: 6938

DiscoBunny1979, you are taking it the wrong way. Sorry if hurt you feelings in any way. Obviously the joke does not rely on the luck of getting a date. gbs It's a bad day when you are straight, your siamese twin is gay and has a hot date tonight! I hope this board is above using "gay" jokes as a means to blame someone else for the way you feel - even if it's kinda funny. How would you like it if it read: "It's a bad day when you're gay and your siamese twin is straight and has a hot date"? It doesn't carry the same meaning because the original joke is aimed at saying something about being gay - that as a straight person, you certainly should have better luck at getting a date than someone that's gay . . . which means tha...
by gbs
Thu Jun 19, 2008 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Dramatic Impact of Taxes
Replies: 18
Views: 8090

tomser, First an observation regarding bonds. In your case, 25% marginal tax bracket, you might also want to consider tax-exempt bonds. Possible to use state municipal bonds from your state. Otherwise three portfolio suggestions for you: 1. 40% TSM, 20% FTSE, 5% Money market, 25% shot term bonds (tax extempt or not), 10% intermediate or long term bonds. 2. 30% TSM, 5% VTMSX (small cap tax managed), 5% IJS (small cap value), 10% FSTE, 5% EM, 5% money market, 25% short term bonds, 15% intermediate/long term bonds. 3. 20% TSM, 10% VTMSX (small cap tax managed), 10% IJS (small cap value), 10% EM, 5% money market, 25% short term bonds, 20% intermediate/long term bonds. In all cases at the intermediate/long term bond you can include: - state spec...
by gbs
Thu Jun 19, 2008 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Dramatic Impact of Taxes
Replies: 18
Views: 8090

Tomser,

what tax bracket are you in?

Regards, gbs
tomser wrote:HI Robert

exellent information thank you

i wonder if you can comment on my AA below regarding tax issues

so waht is the best approach for retired all taxable accounts

this is i have now all vangurads funds

TSM ( 50% fund 50% ETF VTI )
Large Value
small cap index
small cap value ( ETF ) VBR )

REIT ( ETF VNQ )

FSTE all world ex US ( 40% ETF VEU )
emerging ( ETF vwo )

total bond
tips
ST invest grade

best wishes

tomser
by gbs
Tue Jun 03, 2008 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Clearing Up Misconceptions on ST Corporate Bonds
Replies: 90
Views: 24731

What do you make of the fact that Vanguard short and intermediate treasury funds returns from Simba's spreadsheet are as good or better than the Corporate Index ?

I remember you being against sampling. The fund you recommend has 107 holdings compared with 550 for the index. Any comments?

gbs
by gbs
Tue Jun 03, 2008 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Clearing Up Misconceptions on ST Corporate Bonds
Replies: 90
Views: 24731

Sh,

I would implement the TIPS/Treasuries strategy using Vanguard funds. How would you implement the corporate strategy?

gbs
by gbs
Mon Jun 02, 2008 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Clearing Up Misconceptions on ST Corporate Bonds
Replies: 90
Views: 24731

Hi, I used the Corporate returns that you posted, short term treasuries and intermediate treasuries from Simba's spreadsheet and IFA 100 returns from ifa website. All are annual returns. Corp VFITX VFISX IFA100 6.07 1.4 3.7 22.5 3.9 3.5 5.5 25.2 6.17 4.1 10.4 21.2 9.99 3.9 14.1 28.2 12.92 9.4 18.9 4 22.24 29.1 19.5 17.3 10.69 7.4 8.6 32.1 14.05 14 12.8 3.2 14.79 20.3 13.2 28.7 11.01 15.1 11.9 26.6 6.03 2.9 6 9.3 7.71 6.1 5.9 25.8 11.6 13.3 8.7 28.4 9.09 9.7 8.9 -16.2 13 15.3 10.7 33.5 7.82 7.78 6.75 10.3 7.06 11.43 6.41 29.7 1.17 -4.33 -0.58 1.2 11.71 20.44 12.11 21 5.7 1.92 4.39 15.9 7.16 8.96 6.39 13.3 7.21 10.61 7.36 2.3 3.9 -3.52 1.85 23.5 7.6 14.03 8.83 1.3 9.58 7.55 7.8 2.6 6.52 14.15 8.02 -11.3 5.35 2.37 2.38 48.7 1.82 3.4 1.03 22.4 ...
by gbs
Mon Jun 02, 2008 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Clearing Up Misconceptions on ST Corporate Bonds
Replies: 90
Views: 24731

In terms of individual strategies and only Corps vs Treasuries. Using the data from Simba's table. The efficient frontier for Corps looks exactly the same as the one from Short term treasuries. The Intermediate term treasuries provide for a slightly better return for allocation of 50% IFA100 or more.

Image

In terms of efficient frontier allocation and excluding tips we have this.

Image

Were the IFA100 allocation moves from 8% to 44% and corps from 63% to 0% as they are replaced by treasuries.

Regards, gbs
by gbs
Mon Jun 02, 2008 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Clearing Up Misconceptions on ST Corporate Bonds
Replies: 90
Views: 24731

Best Mixes for the 1977-2007 period.

TSM- total stock market
FFSV- small value
STT- short term treasuries
ITT- intermdiate term treasuries
TIPS - treasury inflation protected securities
Corp - short term corporate bonds
IFA100 - IFA portfolio 100

Here is what the data shows for best mixes 1977-2007:

20% TSM, 34% Corp, 6% ITT, 40% TIPS
40% TSM, 16% ITT, 44% TIPS

no Corps after 30% TSM

20% FFSV, 15% Corp, 23% ITT, 42% TIPS
40% FFSV, 24% ITT, 36% TIPS

no Corps after 23% SV

20% IFA100, 44% Corp, 1% STT, 9% ITT, 26% TIPS
40% IFA100, 26% STT, 12% ITT, 22%TIPS

no Corps after 36% IFA 100.

For the 1977-2007 period short term corporate bonds were useful at very low stock allocations < 35%.

gbs
by gbs
Sun Jun 01, 2008 2:53 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: The Censorship Bar on Bogleheads is Set Pretty Low
Replies: 107
Views: 29726

xerty24 wrote:Currently the censorship bar is set to anyone trying to post with Firefox :(
Testing: Post from Firefox...
by gbs
Sat May 31, 2008 11:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Clearing Up Misconceptions on ST Corporate Bonds
Replies: 90
Views: 24731

Random Musings wrote:
GBS: what was the "spread" between ST Treasuries and ST Corp at the starting point of your 1997-2007 analysis? If this spread was more "normal" (or even lower) compared to other times during that time period you were looking at (and perhaps that isn't even the case), could you run the efficient frontiers starting at time periods when the spreads look more like today's?

Regards,

RM
RM, have no idea what the spread was. Analysis was from 1977 to 2007. You need to let me know the time interval because as I said I don't have the spread information.

gbs
by gbs
Sat May 31, 2008 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Clearing Up Misconceptions on ST Corporate Bonds
Replies: 90
Views: 24731

Pitchers

X - STDEV
Y - Return
Blue curve - arithmetic efficient frontier
Red curve - geometric efficient frontier

Short term treasuries vs Short Term corporate 1977 - 2007.
Image

Basically same risk return if more than 65% TSM.

Intermediate term treasuries vs Short Term corporate 1977 - 2007.
Image
Intermediate treasuries a tad better after 50% equity.

TIPS vs Short Term corporate 1977 - 2007.
Image
TIPS - well ahead.

Treasuries/ TIPS don't look bad at all.

Will run against other portfolios but I will need the portfolio returns from 1977 to 2007.

Regards, gbs
by gbs
Sat May 31, 2008 5:24 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Morningstar Gone?
Replies: 98
Views: 38457

Re: Morningstar Gone?

cudaman wrote:
gbs wrote:
Petrocelli wrote:
gbs wrote: I was sure that you will be the first to comment !
If I didn't do it, someone else would have.
True but YOU were the first!

gbs
And the point is?

Jerry
That Petrocelli is the most concerned poster re Bogleheads well being?

gbs
by gbs
Sat May 31, 2008 5:13 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Morningstar Gone?
Replies: 98
Views: 38457

Re: Morningstar Gone?

Petrocelli wrote:
gbs wrote:
I was sure that you will be the first to comment !
If I didn't do it, someone else would have.
True but YOU were the first!

gbs
by gbs
Sat May 31, 2008 4:57 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Morningstar Gone?
Replies: 98
Views: 38457

Re: Morningstar Gone?

Petrocelli wrote:As one of the very first people to join this forum, I always enjoyed the ability to "one stop shop" by logging in to Diehards.org. To quote Mel, I saw "Diehards to the left, and Diehards to the right." The forums were a little different, but I read and posted to both forums interchangably.

Today, I logged on and saw that M* has been eliminated from the opening page. Out of curiousity, can anyone explain why this decision was made, or who made it?

I was sure that you will be the first to comment !

I guess the M* forum was not very diehardish lately although I liked reading the title of your posts for entertainment value.

Diehards.org chose to make a move in the right direction IMO.

Regards, gbs
by gbs
Fri May 30, 2008 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Clearing Up Misconceptions on ST Corporate Bonds
Replies: 90
Views: 24731

Would be hard to debate you without having the returns :)

Anybody care to post them?

Regards, gbs
by gbs
Thu May 29, 2008 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Multi-Period Rebalanced MVO Output -> MC Simulator Questi
Replies: 23
Views: 5918

Re: Multi-Period Rebalanced MVO Output -> MC Simulator Qu

dothemontecarlo wrote:
gbs wrote:All mean variant efficient portfolios are geometric mean efficient. In other words same portfolios appear on both frontiers. I think this is mentioned by Bernstein in the pdf paper on rebalancing bonus.

gbs
Might you have a link to that paper? Or is it not public?

Thanks.
Here is the link:

http://www.effisols.com/basics/rebal.pdf

see chapter 6

Regards, gbs

P.S. Excellent example:)
by gbs
Thu May 29, 2008 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Multi-Period Rebalanced MVO Output -> MC Simulator Questi
Replies: 23
Views: 5918

Re: Multi-Period Rebalanced MVO Output -> MC Simulator Qu

My own MC simulator rebalances every year between two baskets -- a risk-free basket and a risky basket -- so I figure I would need the MVOPlus EF portfolios as inputs into my MC simulator in order for the outputs to be valid. Although I suppose I could just allocate a 0% weight to my risk-free basket and a 100% weight to the risky basket using the regular MVO outputs (since there would be nothing to rebalance). Regardless of the assets that you combine and their weights a single period MVO is sufficient. Regards, gbs What's the point of MVOPlus, then? I thought that MVOPlus found EF portfolios that were not on the EF of MVO. In other words, I thought that there existed rebalanced portfolios on the rebalanced EF that had no unrebalanced cor...
by gbs
Thu May 29, 2008 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Multi-Period Rebalanced MVO Output -> MC Simulator Questi
Replies: 23
Views: 5918

Rodc wrote:
From some of the test that I did on shortfall risk: portfolios that are on efficient frontier are not the portfolios with the smallest shortfall risk in the withdrawal stage. Mostly because the sequence of returns counts.
That would be one of my concerns, although I have not done any work to see to what degree that is true. Did you find they were far from the EF? That is, would using EF portfolios be not too far from decent or terrible?
Have not further tested this as it did not interest me at the time. I would guess that depending on the sequence of returns you can find cases of efficient portfolios that would make you switch your diet in retirement. Also easy to simulate returns and construct examples of such scenarios.


gbs
by gbs
Thu May 29, 2008 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Multi-Period Rebalanced MVO Output -> MC Simulator Questi
Replies: 23
Views: 5918

Re: Multi-Period Rebalanced MVO Output -> MC Simulator Qu

That's very interesting. Were you taking historical return data and randomly mixing it up (e.g., one random simulation might be a 1929 return followed by a 1985 return followed by .... you get the idea), or were you strictly following the historical return data as it happened? A: historical return data as it happened. If the former, you would probably get the same results with normally- or lognormally-randomly distributed variables. A: yes. But that's not what I would expect. I would think that if you are using randomly normally distributed variables in your MC, that any portfolio A that gives you more return for the same or less std dev risk than portfolio B, would also, and always (for sufficiently large numbers of simulations), provide ...
by gbs
Thu May 29, 2008 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Multi-Period Rebalanced MVO Output -> MC Simulator Questi
Replies: 23
Views: 5918

Re: Multi-Period Rebalanced MVO Output -> MC Simulator Qu

Thanks for those insights. I'd love to see links to any corrections Gummy made to, or comments Gummy made on, Bernstein's paper. How cool! That would be really interesting. Links: http://www.gummy-stuff.org/rebalancing-bonus.htm http://www.gummy-stuff.org/rebalancing-bonus-2.htm My own MC simulator rebalances every year between two baskets -- a risk-free basket and a risky basket -- so I figure I would need the MVOPlus EF portfolios as inputs into my MC simulator in order for the outputs to be valid. Although I suppose I could just allocate a 0% weight to my risk-free basket and a 100% weight to the risky basket using the regular MVO outputs (since there would be nothing to rebalance). Regardless of the assets that you combine and their we...