Search found 900 matches

by spam
Tue Sep 07, 2010 6:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Buy and Hold Dead? - Christine Benz
Replies: 24
Views: 4602

http://i303.photobucket.com/albums/nn121/Spam_on_Toast/DJHistoricTrendssm.jpg Link to the chart here: http://i303.photobucket.com/albums/nn121/Spam_on_Toast/DJHistoricTrends.jpg From the chart above, it is clear that the strategy outlined in the Boglehead book was superior for the period when it wa...
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Tue Sep 07, 2010 5:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: grok says I know that Fidelity is ultimately out to screw me
Replies: 72
Views: 8140

My corner grocer is in the business of selling above cost as I am sure that Grok's grocer is. Maybe grok should slaughter his own chickens and cows so he does not have to get screwed by the butcher. This is not to say that I do not shop the sales. It is to say that sometimes I pay for convienience o...
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Sun Aug 29, 2010 6:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you wouldn't BUY stocks then why would you HOLD stocks?
Replies: 111
Views: 11043

I have been putting 100% of my 401k contributions in my stable value account. With regards to stock funds, I look at the cost basis. If my cost basis is higher than the fund current price, and my allocation is on the low end, then I buy.

I just bought the S&P 500 and 600 again on Thursdays dip.
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Tue Aug 24, 2010 4:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forego bonds to pay down student debt?
Replies: 16
Views: 1951

I would pay down the debt. It is easy to loose sight of how long it really takes to repay a loan while you are a student. Money can loose value, and the dangerous trend of minimizing the real obligations of debt can take hold. One day you wake up at age 40 with an unmanagable debt load and wonder ho...
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Mon Aug 23, 2010 4:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard doesn't seem to want taxable investors [cost basis]
Replies: 18
Views: 4984

Vanguard customers would benifit from almost any reporting changes. Their current practices are gastly.
by spam
Sun Aug 08, 2010 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LA Times on the 'Bond-Buying Binge'
Replies: 53
Views: 8075

The irritant here best summed up by this quote: Of course, investors themselves are driving down interest rates as they shovel cash into the bond market. According to Bloomberg, the past decade has been the most volitile on record since the 1930's for stocks. Maybe investors are prudent for buying f...
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Wed Jul 07, 2010 4:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Funds that Defy Boglehead Principles
Replies: 50
Views: 7488

Folks will tell you that bond funds are all about credit quality and duration. Does the PIMCO fund have the same credit quality and duration as the Vanguard fund? Are you comparing apples-to-apples? There are no surprises here. Full disclosure: My spouse has 100% of her 401(k) invested in PIMCO tot...
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Wed Jul 07, 2010 4:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stocks Down, Thankfully"
Replies: 77
Views: 11948

It is a good time to buy anything when prices are low but stocks may not be the best pick right now.

For a young person, buying a home at a discount with an extraordinarily low interest rate could be a better choice than buying stocks.
by spam
Sun Jun 13, 2010 5:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Here's a reason not to trade ETF's at Fidelity
Replies: 3
Views: 1356

Sometimes I wonder if the cheap price stucture is taking it's toll at Vanguard also. Their statements come to mind. They are awful. They use a font so small that it takes a magnifying glass to read. On the flip side, they must save a bunch on paper and ink.
by spam
Sat Jun 12, 2010 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wisdom of Jack Bogle on rebalancing and on bond funds
Replies: 53
Views: 11009

If only Gibson (or anyone) could show us this chart from 2010-2040. That information would be very helpful. Here's my guess . It's as good (or bad) as anyone else. Rick Ferri Hi Rick, Jack Bogle, like Roger Gibson, backtested historic data. Neither offered a prediction. So your argument, while havi...
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Sat Jun 12, 2010 5:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wisdom of Jack Bogle on rebalancing and on bond funds
Replies: 53
Views: 11009

Maybe the problem is with Jacks asset allocation. With the exception of the bonds, the other asset classes tend to be pretty strongly correltated. http://i303.photobucket.com/albums/nn121/Spam_on_Toast/Exhibit123.jpg Adding a REIT and Commodity index to the S&P and International index did much bette...
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Thu May 27, 2010 4:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Apple market cap greater than Microsoft
Replies: 16
Views: 2600

At one time, a major difference between the two was in the way they formatted disks. Apple "spiraled" data onto the disk in equal length segments. Microsoft created a "pie-slice" format and tried to fit equal-length segments into diminishing segment sizes. This resulted in lots of storage waste espe...
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Fri May 21, 2010 4:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow Theorist Richard Russell: Sell Everything Liquid
Replies: 69
Views: 13468

i barely recognize america now. I attended a Church cookout last Sunday afternoon. Someone was "bragging" about that they have not made a mortgage payment in 28 months. Of course, everyone was asking him "How did you do that?" I wanted to scream "HE STOPPED PAYING". The new norm is to "strategicall...
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Fri May 21, 2010 4:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Smart Money ranks brokerages in their June issue
Replies: 10
Views: 2221

dmcmahon wrote:Where did Schwab rank? What about ThinkOrSwim? Just curious.
Schwab ranked the top for their offering of mutual funds and investment products. It said they were among a trio of 5 star brokers.

Schwab also ranked at the top for research. Overall, they placed 4th. No mention of Vanguard.
by spam
Wed May 19, 2010 4:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve Indicates Coming Rise in Corporate Earnings?
Replies: 14
Views: 2363

The New York Federal Reserve Bank has an article posted on its website concerning the predictive power of the yield curve.

http://www.ny.frb.org/research/capital_ ... ycfaq.html
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Wed May 12, 2010 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BEARX vs. VFINX 1996-2010
Replies: 45
Views: 4327

BEARX is a bear market fund. Its goal is to be negatively correlated with the S&P 500. If the ER was not so high, then you could easily (and consistantly) beat the S&P by owning both equally and rebalancing.
by spam
Wed May 12, 2010 4:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond strategies for rising interest rates.
Replies: 11
Views: 3335

Interest rate sensitivity (duration) is meaningless if you hold to maturity. It only matters if you sell before maturity. Then the value (price) of the bond might be discounted to make a higher yield. So, you could end up buying at a premium (above par) when yields are low, and selling at a discount...
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Sun May 09, 2010 6:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help understanding rising rates
Replies: 8
Views: 1836

There is an interesting article discussing the historical effect of rising interest rates on intermediate-term treasurys here: http://personal.fidelity.com/misc/framesets/iwarticle.shtml?pagename=VP1004downside The real damage, however, occurred to investors during the earlier part of this four-deca...
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Fri May 07, 2010 4:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long term investing, look at it in reverse.....
Replies: 2
Views: 937

Thanks for the reminder LH. It is easy to forget and begin thinking that B&H indexing is a sure thing with a gurarenteed a 10% return.
by spam
Fri May 07, 2010 4:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did anyone else panic sell stocks today?
Replies: 63
Views: 8681

Can someone please explain how tax loss harvesting would work in this situation? Could I theoretically just sell a fund out of my non-tax advantaged, then buy it back into my tax advantaged accounts? Would that allow me to realize less of gain on another sell this year? You need to wait 31 days bef...
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Mon May 03, 2010 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Funds and Bull Markets
Replies: 92
Views: 8963

I notice that your fund screen includes "10yr performance above category average". Whoops. Q: If you screen on past winners and find your list populated with past winners, what have you shown? A: The screening software works. Now wait 10 years and check back and see how they did: that will be a lit...
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Sun May 02, 2010 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive Investors should Flock to Fidelity?
Replies: 22
Views: 7636

I prefer Fidelity because they are cheaper, and I like their statements MUCH better ..... thank you very much.
by spam
Tue Apr 27, 2010 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Timing the Market
Replies: 22
Views: 2879

twatkins wrote: So my question is – for the life of my Vanguard account, every time the S&P 500 goes below 1217, my Vanguard account loses money and every time it rises above 1217, my investment gains money. I understand that no one can predict the future of the stock market, etc. but “when” (or th...
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Tue Apr 27, 2010 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Greek bonds: good investment?
Replies: 56
Views: 7426

Re: Greek bonds: good investment?

Indices wrote:I highly doubt that Greece will be allowed to default by the EU or IMF. Greek bonds are at 9.5 per cent I believe. That is amazing. Anyone have any thoughts?
So will they be "allowed" to restructure their debt? You could easily loose 30% with that.
by spam
Sun Apr 25, 2010 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what would be the most conservative diversified bond portfoi
Replies: 19
Views: 3772

Intermediate Treasurys are the closest to the "sweet spot" on the yield curve so I would put 1/3 in the Intermediate Term Treasury fund. The link below is to the dynamic yield curve. click on " animate " and watch what happens on the short end of the curve relative to the long end. http://www.stockc...
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Sun Apr 25, 2010 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Buyer's Strike! (Fun Poll too!)
Replies: 36
Views: 4225

I feel Jeremy Grantham (stocks) and Jim Grant (bonds) make the most compelling arguments for the next 5 years.
by spam
Sat Apr 24, 2010 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Challenge to Bogle (not from me)
Replies: 13
Views: 2392

I think Mr. Bogle looses either way. The challanger will get far more than 100k in publicity regardless of the outcome. Jack will gain nothing regardless of the outcome. For Mr. Bogle, it is loose - loose. For the challanger, it is win - win. The only way for Jack to win is for the challange to not ...
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Sun Apr 18, 2010 4:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio for 13 year old using Oakmark funds
Replies: 19
Views: 4114

I own these two Oakmark funds. OAKGX is the global fund and holds about half domestic stocks. OAKBX is their balanced fund which owns domestic stocks and about half bonds. The flat line on the bottom is the tax efficient vanguard total stock market index. http://i303.photobucket.com/albums/nn121/Spa...
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Fri Apr 16, 2010 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Rosenberg's Comments on 'Pig Farming'.
Replies: 20
Views: 3068

Hi Nick, Thanks for the clarification. HFT would then affect volume if the shares were actually held for a few microseconds and then sold again. Removing ethics from the discussion, then would it be fair to say that this type of HFT affects volume, and would serve to decrease volume if it was regula...
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Fri Apr 16, 2010 4:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Rosenberg's Comments on 'Pig Farming'.
Replies: 20
Views: 3068

Hi Nick, The point I was trying to make concerned volume, and not ethics. Some computers were generating thousands of orders without any intention of buying or selling. The orders were cancelled a few microseconds later. They were merely fishing for a price, or were trying to determine what a compet...
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Fri Apr 16, 2010 4:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing Tactics Question
Replies: 16
Views: 2509

by spam
Thu Apr 15, 2010 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We are experiencing a "frugal recovery"
Replies: 5
Views: 1621

If this is frugal then I like frugal. I have made so much money that I had to buy a pay loader to handle it all.
by spam
Thu Apr 15, 2010 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long Term Bonds == Interest Rate Risks
Replies: 38
Views: 4134

Why not look at the dynamic yield curve here: http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/YieldCurve.html When the page loads, click on "animate". If you look at the window on the right, it will show you the timeline. Now, if yields go up because the value of the bond goes down, then you can see the risk is, ...
by spam
Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Rosenberg's Comments on 'Pig Farming'.
Replies: 20
Views: 3068

Thanks guys. Spam, do you mean that trading volumes today are not as high due to new rules limiting high frequency trading? Hi Chris, From Bloomberg: Some investors say computer-driven strategies executing hundreds of trades a minute make stock prices more volatile and boost costs. NYSE Euronext es...
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Wed Apr 14, 2010 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Infuriating NYT quote
Replies: 24
Views: 5488

Rod wrote: \ But I think the conclusions that in such periods "stock selection is important" and from the graph, "History shows that markets typically move in cycles." and the implication that you need to adjust investments to market cycles, is just wrong as advice to deal with periods of poor mark...
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Wed Apr 14, 2010 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Infuriating NYT quote
Replies: 24
Views: 5488

Hi Rod, I think our exchange has gotten a bit silly here. The chart I posted simply shows that a boad index can go sideways for an extended period of time, and nothing more. Rebalancers can do well during the red periods, and not so during the green ones. In fact, Vanguard published a study on their...
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Wed Apr 14, 2010 4:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Infuriating NYT quote
Replies: 24
Views: 5488

Yes markets are cyclical with an indeterminate radius :lol: I thought the market could be predicted with a sheet of graph paper and a line drawn at 45 degrees. Everyone knows that stock index prices return 10% guarenteed if you wait long enough. The trouble is knowing .... how long is long enough t...
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Wed Apr 14, 2010 4:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Rosenberg's Comments on 'Pig Farming'.
Replies: 20
Views: 3068

High Frequency trading inflated volume statistics. Most of these "trades" were actually cancelled a few mircoseconds after they were ordered. The intent was to trick a competing computer into "tipping its hand" which would reveal the intentions of its programmers. The rules governing HF trading have...
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Tue Apr 13, 2010 4:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Infuriating NYT quote
Replies: 24
Views: 5488

Re: Infuriating NYT quote

jegallup quoted from an infurating NYT article: “Stock selection is important now,” said Sarah H. Ketterer, co-manager of the Causeway Global Value fund. “Whole markets and sectors aren’t going to rise." I think it is possible that this quote will be true over the next 5 to 7 years just as it was o...
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Thu Apr 08, 2010 4:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not Stable Value insted of Bonds
Replies: 26
Views: 5708

Check out SMUAX. It is an ultra-short national muni fund that seems to behave like a stable value fund.
by spam
Tue Apr 06, 2010 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I am at 0% bonds. (April 2010)
Replies: 97
Views: 15596

I think there are two main differences between gambling and investing

1) Gambling typically has a short duration
2) Gambling is typically an all-or-nothing proposition.
by spam
Mon Apr 05, 2010 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I am at 0% bonds. (April 2010)
Replies: 97
Views: 15596

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/article/bear-flattening-bond-surprise-04012010 Quote: Bond investors worried about the prospect of rising interest rates, rising inflation, and an inability to generate sufficient income may be taking on more risk than they realize if they switch to inflatio...
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Sun Apr 04, 2010 5:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sam Stovall: S&P 500 is cheap by historical standards
Replies: 28
Views: 4344

Expensive compared to what year?

Image
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Sat Apr 03, 2010 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalance Strategy at S&P 500 1,566
Replies: 32
Views: 4681

Gekko wrote:i have a weird feeling that S&P 1,566 will come and go and i will not have sold anything.
My bond allocation is not static. If the S&P reaches 1,566 again, then I will have a higher percentage of fixed income than I do today. A year ago, I was around 90% equities.
by spam
Sat Apr 03, 2010 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalance Strategy at S&P 500 1,566
Replies: 32
Views: 4681

Why not use history to estimate the next market top? http://i303.photobucket.com/albums/nn121/Spam_on_Toast/HistoricBullMarketReturns.jpg So, if the dow gained about 3,800 points in the last year and that equals 41.5% of the total bull market run, then 100% should be when the dow is around 15,000. P...
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Sat Apr 03, 2010 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long Term Investing and Corruption
Replies: 30
Views: 3992

Re: Long Term Investing and Corruption

If shareholders are passive investors with long-term focus, wouldn't this reduce accountability? I think about this a lot. I also think about how CEOs of companies excuse actions by saying, "The shareholders want me to increase profits, so I had to [insert scandal of the day]." I really worry that ...
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Fri Apr 02, 2010 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard sees more risk on short end of yield curve
Replies: 42
Views: 8620

Yes, 1-year returns could turn negative, but if you hold for the duration, ~2.5 years, you will end up ahead according to other articles previously published by Vanguard. And as this article says, remain diversified in your bond holdings. Paul What would happen if interst rates went up 1% each year...
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Mon Mar 29, 2010 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Inflation is the highest its been in 27 years?"
Replies: 47
Views: 8545

I find that most of these claims are based on "facts" like "you can't get the same amount of stuff at the dollar store that you used to". "The price is the same but the packages are smaller". The ones I hear making his argument are suspicious of the CPI-U index because they believe the government ha...
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Mon Mar 29, 2010 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it make sense to chase rates for one's bond portfolio?
Replies: 4
Views: 1259

So... if I find that making a CD ladder using a 5-YR CD term has a higher yield than existing bond funds, does it make sense to switch to CDs for their higher returns? Yes. You will avoid interest rate risk by holding an individual issue to maturity. The fixed income landscape could easily change d...
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Mon Mar 29, 2010 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pros and Cons of Mid Cap Funds
Replies: 9
Views: 3085

I love mid cap funds.