Search found 12094 matches

by pkcrafter
Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: how to glean ETF information
Replies: 4
Views: 201

Re: how to glean ETF information

Remainderman, welcome to the forum. I guess we are all a bit confused on exactly what information you are looking for. Here is information of VTI. What broker are you asking about this ETF? I guess you do not own VTI yet, and the purchase is dependent on some specific information, is that right? htt...
by pkcrafter
Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value vs. total market?
Replies: 29
Views: 1996

Re: Small cap value vs. total market?

Hey, small cappers. Time to jump in is right now! The January effect will be big this year and it will start in late December. How do I know? I know because I am better at making predictions then I am at making money from predictions. :happy

Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Dec 11, 2017 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Automated Market Timing
Replies: 62
Views: 2471

Re: Automated Market Timing

I have been investing for 40 years CAPE or other valuation measurs are not good ways to time the market. You will lose your shirt timing the market with moving averases. I have spent a lot of time testing publicly available timing methods. They do not work. Perhaps that is why they are public. I ha...
by pkcrafter
Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just not getting it
Replies: 69
Views: 7911

Re: Best reason NOT to invest in individual stocks

Bogleheads: The best reason I have heard NOT to invest in individual stocks is this: Mutual fund managers who select individual stocks are bright, highly educated, well-trained, with large staffs and computer information we can only dream about. Nevertheless, most are unable to beat a comparable in...
by pkcrafter
Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Investor Need advice
Replies: 16
Views: 790

Re: New Investor Need advice

Thanks. She in school so at this point we are doing this to gether Ok, good. I think your wife should open a Roth too. I'd suggest you invest enough in the 401k to get the match, then fund two Roths. If there is any left to invest, go back to the 401k. The advantage of the Roths is lower cost and a...
by pkcrafter
Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Investor Need advice
Replies: 16
Views: 790

Re: New Investor Need advice

Cheetah, I think TR 2035 is as close to 80% stock as you are going to get. International is about 36% which is close enough to the target you want. The idea is to get going with this fund as you learn and as assets build. This is the same fund that is available to you, it's just a different class. h...
by pkcrafter
Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2000-09 worst decade for large cap stocks in 109 years
Replies: 44
Views: 2963

Re: 2000-09 worst decade for large cap stocks in 109 years

Robert T, thanks for starting an interesting discussion. Here's some more data on market vs inflation. http://www.simplestockinvesting.com/SP500-historical-real-total-returns.htm Here are several misc charts for the data chompers. http://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart P...
by pkcrafter
Sat Dec 09, 2017 11:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Think you can time the stock market? Look at this chart first"
Replies: 42
Views: 4061

Re: "Think you can time the stock market? Look at this chart first"

Guess I don't get it. If you market time you are certain to miss some of those best days. The message seems clear--stay invested.


Paul
by pkcrafter
Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does a Boglehead ever time the market?
Replies: 64
Views: 3743

Re: Does a Boglehead ever time the market?

Welcome Matt, o it seems to me that Mr Bogle is advocating that it is unwise to invest in overpriced markets, so the best thing I can do as an indexer, is to wait until the market is fair valued or undervalued, then invest for the long term in index funds. Matt, you have a lump sum to invest that ha...
by pkcrafter
Sat Dec 09, 2017 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need advice on how to start investing
Replies: 6
Views: 604

Re: Need advice on how to start investing

Welcome KDN, If you want really useful information you should provide a list of the funds you are in now, including tickers if any, and cost. Also provide lower cost funds available that you are not using. I have about $1k leftover each month that I want to use to invest but I'm not sure what to inv...
by pkcrafter
Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1924
Views: 1181049

Re: Audible: Bogleheads' Guide to The Three-Fund Portfolio"

Bogleheads: Today, I received this e-mail from the publisher (Wiley): I’m happy to report that Audible has selected The Bogleheads’ Guide to the 3-Fund Portfolio for audiobook publication simultaneously with the print and eBooks. Congrats! The Bogleheads' Guide to the Three-Fund Portfolio is schedu...
by pkcrafter
Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First post from this retiree with questions - my daughter sent me here!
Replies: 34
Views: 3821

Re: First post from this retiree with questions - my daughter sent me here!

miamivice, a 30k withdrawl is 6.3%. No, not a safe withdrawal rate. You used 25 years in your calculation and the SWR uses 30, but it's still a problem because the 4% growth you used isn't going to be even. In times when the market is down, a 6.3% withdrawal rate increases and could spin into a nonr...
by pkcrafter
Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard customer service reps need some training
Replies: 66
Views: 6787

Re: Vanguard customer service reps need some training

Never ask Vanguard to do more than one thing.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Dec 06, 2017 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current Research On Dividend Studies
Replies: 11
Views: 1135

Re: Current Research On Dividend Studies

Thanks, jack. From the conclusion in the first link-- We believe this research illustrates that the industry acceptance of five years as a long-term investment horizon underestimates the potential of reinvesting and compounding income. By reinvesting the income contribution of investment returns, in...
by pkcrafter
Wed Dec 06, 2017 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Creative Planning/Peter Mallouk
Replies: 2
Views: 208

Re: Creative Planning/Peter Mallouk

I don't know about Creative Planning other than the fee is 1% for accounts of up to 2MM. However, Mallouk's book looks intertesting.

https://www.amazon.com/Mistakes-Every-I ... 1118929004

Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k Getting a bit more diversity
Replies: 3
Views: 309

Re: 401k Getting a bit more diversity

Spirit Rider is correct, and here's Wiki information on approximating TSM

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Approxi ... ock_market


Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance
Replies: 166
Views: 9004

Re: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance

That is not to say that owning high dividend yield funds is also not a good idea in a tax-deferred account. Paul You said you are not saying it's not a good idea. But, would you go so far as to say it is a good idea? A preferable idea? Here's what snarly said: Here is a "guy" that writes this web-s...
by pkcrafter
Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance
Replies: 166
Views: 9004

Re: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance

mageto wrote: Those in favour of dividends would welcome a 50% stock set-back, the dividend averse would presumably not? Dividends aren't really a bonus, they are a withdrawal of your money, and as everyone here knows you don't want to withdraw from stocks when they are down by 50%. This would be th...
by pkcrafter
Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Risk question
Replies: 18
Views: 1735

Re: Bond Risk question

You have to be careful about how you buy individual bonds.

http://money.cnn.com/pf/money-essential ... index.html

Buying new issue individual munis at no commission isn't so easy.

https://www.thebalance.com/how-to-buy-m ... tly-357929

Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Dec 04, 2017 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opening a Traditional IRA Within Existing Vanguard Account
Replies: 11
Views: 530

Re: Opening a Traditional IRA Within Existing Vanguard Account

joer,
I live in NY, and I'm doing this to mitigate the looming tax tidal wave that's going to hit me, when the Republicans ram their tax legislation through congress.
You better remove this sentence or the thread will be locked.
by pkcrafter
Sun Dec 03, 2017 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance
Replies: 166
Views: 9004

Re: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance

Statman's book is impressive. It is detailed and thoroughly researched. There are hundreds of references listed. More from Statman-- (earlier post) https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=229121&p=3576574&hilit=dividend+puzzle#p3576574 Hoops wrote: Another factor which the author did n...
by pkcrafter
Sat Dec 02, 2017 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New to Forum & Sharing Recent Investment Experiment
Replies: 3
Views: 335

Re: New to Forum & Sharing Recent Investment Experiment

Welcome to the forum, Hello friends, I recently discovered this forum and like the down to earth, common sense vibe here. I recognized a lot of wisdom right off, so I am now a member. I would like to share a recent experience: I love saving money. I am currently saving to purchase land in 5 years an...
by pkcrafter
Sat Dec 02, 2017 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I soooo want to embrace the 3 fund portfolio, but...
Replies: 25
Views: 2899

Re: I soooo want to embrace the 3 fund portfolio, but...

Do I even worry about trying to time anything? I know that's not a Boglehead theory, but I'm talking about a substantial amount of investments... You are already invested, so transferring to Vanguard is just a sideways move and you should maintain your asset allocation (AA). What is your AA? It wou...
by pkcrafter
Sat Dec 02, 2017 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for a pretty obvious portfolio report
Replies: 10
Views: 773

Re: Looking for a pretty obvious portfolio report

It probably is true that most tools do not report your individual performance fund by fund. To do that requires a calculation of personal return, aka internal rate of return, fund by fund tracking date and amount of any contributions and withdrawals. I don't understand your comment about messing up...
by pkcrafter
Sat Dec 02, 2017 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I include cash set aside for home purchase when computing asset allocation
Replies: 20
Views: 756

Re: Should I include cash set aside for home purchase when computing asset allocation

You have chosen an AA of 60/40 for long term investing. You have money set aside to use in a year. These assets have different time periods and different goals. If you combine the house money you have to increase equity holdings and increase your risk on the retirement money. What happens as the tim...
by pkcrafter
Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Changing Retirement Mutual Funds - Advice?
Replies: 8
Views: 659

Re: Changing Retirement Mutual Funds - Advice?

zsinvestor, it looks like your TR funds just may be Freedom Index funds. The ER you listed may also be gross, while net ER is 0.15%. Check those funds.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Are Riskier Than People Think
Replies: 137
Views: 11798

Re: Bonds Are Riskier Than People Think

I think most investors diversify with CDs, bonds, and stocks. As we have seen here, there is no clear answer on what is best. If you go all CDs or all bonds, there are potential negatives, and ultimately all decisions involve some sort of compromise. No perfect answers, but I would not stop holding ...
by pkcrafter
Thu Nov 30, 2017 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reduce risk tolerance - Vanguard Target Funds
Replies: 43
Views: 1763

Re: Reduce risk tolerance - Vanguard Target Funds

Tampaite, you really have to ask yourself why you choose TR2050 in the first place. I guess your aim was to maximize growth, but now you realize you don't want the down side. Trying to dodge market drops isn't going to work. It appears your risk tolerance isn't as high as you thought, so the thing t...
by pkcrafter
Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Simple 3 fund portfolio in 401k - help?
Replies: 6
Views: 530

Re: Simple 3 fund portfolio in 401k - help?

I would choose these funds: Vanguard S&P Index Trust DFA Small/Mid-Cap Value International Value International Growth (optional) PIMCO Total Return ---------or--------- LifePath fund that's closest to your target AA LP 2030 is about 71% stock, 2030 is about 50% stock. Is 2025 available? It's about 6...
by pkcrafter
Tue Nov 28, 2017 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: In-Retirement: Move 401k & SEP-IRA to MM, then to Index Funds via dollar cost averaging?
Replies: 49
Views: 2038

Re: In-Retirement: Move 401k & SEP-IRA to MM, then to Index Funds via dollar cost averaging?

I would not suggest a 60/40 AA, it isn't necessary, in fact a bit risky and does not fit friend's comfort zone. Perhaps 40/60? If there is a market crash in the next year or two it might lower total available assets by 15-20% with 40/60 AA and I think she can handle that if she opts for SS at 67 an...
by pkcrafter
Tue Nov 28, 2017 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: In-Retirement: Move 401k & SEP-IRA to MM, then to Index Funds via dollar cost averaging?
Replies: 49
Views: 2038

Re: In-Retirement: Move 401k & SEP-IRA to MM, then to Index Funds via dollar cost averaging?

lhwerdyt*1791c, Are you calculating the 740k in assets using a lump sum from the pension in 2 years? I ask because if she needs 30k/year, the withdrawal rate meets the safe withdrawal rate of 4% -- if the 740k is intact, and she will only need that until SS starts. What is friend's current AA (asset...
by pkcrafter
Mon Nov 27, 2017 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using Portfolio Visualizer
Replies: 9
Views: 815

Re: Using Portfolio Visualizer

Any ideas or is the data going back to 1997 generally enough to get a sense of how a bear market works? bogleboy, can you be more specific on what you are looking for related to how a bear market works. There are variations on the definition, but generally it's like this: https://www.marketwatch.co...
by pkcrafter
Mon Nov 27, 2017 10:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 134
Views: 8639

Re: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?

Nisiprius: Riddle: was Markowitz acting wisely or foolishly? Very difficult riddle. I had to think about this one for a while. My answer (TD2626): There is a 36.43% chance that he was acting wisely. Ha-ha, good one. Another one: what is the probability that you have been out of engineering school fo...
by pkcrafter
Sun Nov 26, 2017 5:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help DW gets fired, but then next day her boss offers her job back
Replies: 156
Views: 12046

Re: Help DW gets fired, but then next day her boss offers her job back

I've never heard of something like this. First off, she was fired. Why? Today, her boss sees that her replacement will not be able to handle DW workload and offers DW her job back. Her boss basically told her that the office is going thru a tough time and that she can have her job back at 25% reduct...
by pkcrafter
Sun Nov 26, 2017 2:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 134
Views: 8639

Re: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?

Everything you need to know can be found in The Boglehead's Guide to Investing. Implement that. Everything else is an intellectual circus game, to be enjoyed if that's your cup of tea. But don't let that get in the way of making real money. I remember when reading this how much was not mentioned - ...
by pkcrafter
Sun Nov 26, 2017 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity beta. What does ishares mean?
Replies: 8
Views: 734

Re: Equity beta. What does ishares mean?

Reuters shows beta of LQD as 0.08, but I wonder if it should be compared to the market. M* compares to a U.S Credit Bond Index and beta is 1.23.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun Nov 26, 2017 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Merrill Lynch wants personal info--How to deal
Replies: 33
Views: 3305

Re: Merrill Lynch wants personal info--How to deal

Figure out the total required RMD for all IRAs and have ML make the withdrawal for the total including withholding taxes from one account. That will take the pressure of a time line off you. Tell them you want it done now. I don't see how they can refuse to do it. After the RMDs are done, contact t...
by pkcrafter
Sat Nov 25, 2017 8:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Merrill Lynch wants personal info--How to deal
Replies: 33
Views: 3305

Re: Merrill Lynch wants personal info--How to deal

Figure out the total required RMD for all IRAs and have ML make the withdrawal for the total including withholding taxes from one account. That will take the pressure of a time line off you. Tell them you want it done now. I don't see how they can refuse to do it. After the RMDs are done, contact th...
by pkcrafter
Sat Nov 25, 2017 5:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 134
Views: 8639

Re: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?

Although I have no formal background in this area, I have been reading the forum a lot trying to get to the bottom of investing in hopes of better managing my own investments and better being able to help family members when they have questions. 95% of us don't have formal training, but where else ...
by pkcrafter
Sat Nov 25, 2017 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond fund duration(s) in retirement
Replies: 16
Views: 1331

Re: Bond fund duration(s) in retirement

I'm not clear on what you are holding. The only time your strategy would apply is if there are no stocks at all. In a tax-advantaged account you have to rebalance and that can mean moving or withdrawing from stocks sometimes and bonds sometimes, so it's pretty easy to maintain a certain amount of ST...
by pkcrafter
Sat Nov 25, 2017 1:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ - Wall St. Predictions Wrong Again
Replies: 7
Views: 1534

Re: WSJ - Wall St. Predictions Wrong Again

S&P500 predictions, BH (average of all) vs Pros Year BH Pros S&P500 2003 942 1019 1112 2004 1200 1141 1212 2005 1265 1273 1248 2006 1306 1345 1418 2007 1488 1539 1468 2008 1517 1647 903 2009 1015 1045 1115 2010 1212 1223 1257 2011 1357 1326 1257 2012 1383 1367 1426 2013 1532 1565 1848 2014 1958 1949...
by pkcrafter
Fri Nov 24, 2017 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking to save $20,000 in one year
Replies: 18
Views: 1970

Re: Seeking to save $20,000 in one year

HI Paul, I am 34, about 30k in the 403b. Hope this helps, Peter OK, 30k invested is good. I agree, you need an EF, but getting 20k in it in a year is a big order. I could take out a personal loan or do a HELOC or a home equity loan, That is a really bad idea. It's also bad if you don't have an EF a...
by pkcrafter
Fri Nov 24, 2017 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please critique my portfolio and savings
Replies: 7
Views: 816

Re: Please critique my portfolio and savings

Thanks Dan. Updated contribution amounts, fund names. Reason for larger cash due to lack of investment knowledge, fear of loosing principal. Opinon: Asset allocation is way to high for someone your age with inexperience and fear of losses. and not focusing on retirement enough in late 20's to early...
by pkcrafter
Fri Nov 24, 2017 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking to save $20,000 in one year
Replies: 18
Views: 1970

Re: Seeking to save $20,000 in one year

Peter, what is your age? How much is in the 401k? Answers to those questions will give a little more to go on.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Fri Nov 24, 2017 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?
Replies: 213
Views: 16197

Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Who's doing all the buying, the pros or the performance/index chasers? If it's the latter, this will end very badly for them.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu Nov 23, 2017 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Finding a direction - What next?
Replies: 15
Views: 1622

Re: Finding a direction - What next?

New learner here with basic knowledge, just finishing the Bogelheads Guide and pondering my future of investing, having a difficult time on deciding where to go next. Quick base line on where I am at and what I am doing, Just turned 29, married with one child. Mostly single income family with my wi...
by pkcrafter
Thu Nov 23, 2017 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need 529 Advice *New to Investing*
Replies: 6
Views: 737

Re: Need 529 Advice *New to Investing*

workerbee:
pkcrafter, can you further explain your comment on use of Vanguard means one does not get tax-free growth? One counter example - Nevada 529 plan is Vanguard
You are correct. I did not know Nevada was Vanguard's default 529.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Nov 22, 2017 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: DFA International Core Equity (DFIEX) - thoughts anyone?
Replies: 4
Views: 649

Re: DFA International Core Equity (DFIEX) - thoughts anyone?

I think I would use it, even though it isn't actually a large cap developed market fund like Vanguard's. Market cap is about half of Vanguard's, but that's probably a good thing.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Nov 22, 2017 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reminder, donations and Amazon
Replies: 3
Views: 364

Reminder, donations and Amazon

Just a reminder: if you are going to use Amazon for gifts, or want to donate directly to the Bogleheads,be sure to use the contacts in this link.

https://www.bogleheads.org/support.htm

Paul