Search found 12101 matches

by HomerJ
Thu Feb 21, 2019 9:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 4% SWR - how confident are you?
Replies: 59
Views: 2865

Re: 4% SWR - how confident are you?

In short, a "comfortable" retirement means not feeling worried about money all the time , and that means a withdrawal rate that is conservative enough, not merely to avoid actually running out, but to keep the portfolio value high enough to prevent worry . This is a very good point. Of course, this...
by HomerJ
Wed Feb 20, 2019 9:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 4% SWR - how confident are you?
Replies: 59
Views: 2865

Re: 4% SWR - how confident are you?

It's worth keeping in mind that not everything that could happen in the future has happened in the past. This is correct. If the next 30 years are worse than the Great Depression, and we have more than 25% unemployment, 4% might fail. Of course, for me, "failure" means I take a few less vacations a...
by HomerJ
Wed Feb 20, 2019 9:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 4% SWR - how confident are you?
Replies: 59
Views: 2865

Re: 4% SWR - how confident are you?

How confident are you with the 4% SWR and is this based on a 30 year retirement plan or as some people are saying this can apply to an infinite time period. There seems to be mixed opinions all over the place regarding this. For instance, if I retire at 50 with $1M, take out $40k/yr until 65, then ...
by HomerJ
Tue Feb 19, 2019 3:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: “Won the Game” how do you know?
Replies: 96
Views: 7648

Re: “Won the Game” how do you know?

wolf359 wrote:
Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:45 pm
If I work until I drop, I wouldn't regret my earlier choices -- I'd be dead.
I hate this phrase that gets tossed around here.

Why not jump off a cliff then? A person wouldn't regret that choice because they'd be dead, right?
by HomerJ
Tue Feb 19, 2019 3:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: “Won the Game” how do you know?
Replies: 96
Views: 7648

Re: “Won the Game” how do you know?

If you won the game as stated above, should that won money be put into safe place like a CD, bonds or a SPIA? Paul No... 4% assumes around 60/40 or 50/50 stocks/bonds. Definitely a good chunk in stocks. 4% withdrawals would not have worked in some periods in the past if you were 100% CDs or bonds. ...
by HomerJ
Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring 5 Years Before Taking Social Security, How Would You Do It
Replies: 38
Views: 3374

Re: Retiring 5 Years Before Taking Social Security, How Would You Do It

5-year CD ladder. Money you need in a short-time period should be in safe investments. Here's what I would to do. Say I need $60,000 a year, and SS will start paying me $20,000 a year in 5 years. So for 5 years I need $60,000 a year, and then for the rest of my life I need $40,000. So I'd want $300...
by HomerJ
Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 441
Views: 55434

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

So for one who might be considering a 35 year retirement horizon and wanted to wind up with $0 left at endgame, what % rule might be considered? It seems the vast majority of scenarios utilizing the 4% rule or less results in a large chunk of change remaining. I guess a SPIA would be the ultimate a...
by HomerJ
Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 441
Views: 55434

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

So for one who might be considering a 35 year retirement horizon and wanted to wind up with $0 left at endgame, what % rule might be considered? It seems the vast majority of scenarios utilizing the 4% rule or less results in a large chunk of change remaining. I guess a SPIA would be the ultimate a...
by HomerJ
Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: “Won the Game” how do you know?
Replies: 96
Views: 7648

Re: “Won the Game” how do you know?

IMHO you can't just look at expenses. I look at expected expenses minus expected income. That number is what your portfolio must fund. Correct. First, you need to estimate your annual expenses in retirement. Then you need to subtract any annual income you have coming in from sources like pensions, ...
by HomerJ
Mon Feb 18, 2019 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you look back and wish you were more aggressive?
Replies: 64
Views: 4240

Re: Do you look back and wish you were more aggressive?

rholt wrote:
Mon Feb 18, 2019 2:36 pm
I know this kind of second guessing is pointless
It is indeed pretty pointless. Focus on the positive. Look how well your 65% stocks did (just like I focus on how well my 50% stocks did).
by HomerJ
Mon Feb 18, 2019 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you look back and wish you were more aggressive?
Replies: 64
Views: 4240

Re: Do you look back and wish you were more aggressive?

OP, No. I was 100% stock and I lost 50% of my whole life savings because of that. I wish that I was less aggressive and I would have retired 5 years ago. KlangFool Heh, I've been 50/50 ever since 2009, and if I had been MORE aggressive, I'd be retired today instead of 5 years from now. But I regret...
by HomerJ
Mon Feb 18, 2019 5:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: “Won the Game” how do you know?
Replies: 96
Views: 7648

Re: “Won the Game” how do you know?

I believe that author Bill Bernstein describes it as 25x expenses all in safe assets. He's a big advocate of: "if you already won the game, why keep playing?". So if you have 60/40 portfolio, you should have at least $2.5M to win the game? If your net expenses (after pensions and SS) are $100,000 a...
by HomerJ
Mon Feb 18, 2019 4:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: “Won the Game” how do you know?
Replies: 96
Views: 7648

Re: “Won the Game” how do you know?

It means different things to different people. To some it is having 25X expenses saved enough to sustain a (4%) withdrawal rate To some it is having 33X expenses saved enough to sustain a (3%) withdrawal rate To others it is having 50X expenses saved enough to sustain a (2%) withdrawal rate and I a...
by HomerJ
Mon Feb 18, 2019 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What net worth supersedes Bogleheads’s strategy
Replies: 123
Views: 9717

Re: What net worth supersedes Bogleheads’s strategy

I think the op asks a valid question but it’s being misinterpreted... He is looking for/at the average joe that lives off BH principles. Not a successful business owner, not someone that inherited lots of money, not even a high paid professional (doctor). The Midwest family, two incomes, perhaps ma...
by HomerJ
Mon Feb 18, 2019 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today I learned the 4% rule has been around for hundreds of years.
Replies: 26
Views: 4152

Re: Today I learned the 4% rule has been around for hundreds of years.

I thought the 4% rule had gone extinct. After all, isn't 3% is the new 4% these days? Year 2000 retirees had the worst sequence of returns since the early 1970s, yet if they used the '4% rule', they're in good shape today . I've read this but I was being facetious. It seems every day a blog attempt...
by HomerJ
Mon Feb 18, 2019 1:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring 5 Years Before Taking Social Security, How Would You Do It
Replies: 38
Views: 3374

Re: Retiring 5 Years Before Taking Social Security, How Would You Do It

5-year CD ladder. Money you need in a short-time period should be in safe investments. Here's what I would to do. Say I need $60,000 a year, and SS will start paying me $20,000 a year in 5 years. So for 5 years I need $60,000 a year, and then for the rest of my life I need $40,000. So I'd want $300,...
by HomerJ
Mon Feb 18, 2019 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 296
Views: 15468

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

I'm seeing a lot of new posters in this thread and Hedgefundie's thread. Although these are interesting discussions for the veterans on Bogleheads, I do feel these threads are somewhat dangerous for new visitors. We need more disclaimers that one should really know what they are doing to move beyond...
by HomerJ
Mon Feb 18, 2019 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 296
Views: 15468

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

I am very interesting in your strategy because as a retired investor I am always fearful of major market falls. I just do not have 5 or more years to get back to where I was just before the fall. The part what you have added which is a bit riskier is using relative strength to pick only ones ETF to...
by HomerJ
Mon Feb 18, 2019 1:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: First thing(s) you'd do when you achieve financial independence?
Replies: 71
Views: 5222

Re: First thing(s) you'd do when you achieve financial independence?

TheTimeLord wrote:
Sun Feb 17, 2019 10:25 pm
I try to mediate on the words of Bill Murray in Meatballs, "it just doesn't matter, it just doesn't matter, it just doesn't matter". Being able to say and believe that has been what I enjoy the most about being financially independent.
Talk about an obscure reference (which I totally got) :)
by HomerJ
Mon Feb 18, 2019 12:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: First thing(s) you'd do when you achieve financial independence?
Replies: 71
Views: 5222

Re: First thing(s) you'd do when you achieve financial independence?

The moment you cross the finish line, what are the first things you would do? The "finish line" is when I can support my current lifestyle without going to work. Increasing my lifestyle in retirement means I have a new finish line. Which means I have to go back to work, and I'm no longer retired. B...
by HomerJ
Sun Feb 17, 2019 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 441
Views: 55434

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

The '4% rule', while most definitely a sub-optimal withdrawal strategy, is still useful as a rough guide for judging when someone of close to typical retirement age has reached financial independence (i.e. 25x annual spending needs). I should make this my new signature. It's not about a rigid withd...
by HomerJ
Sun Feb 17, 2019 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes
Replies: 105
Views: 11422

Re: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes

No one can predict the future. What if it's a +120% followed by a -40%? (An 80% drop is quite a bold prediction, by the way.) It's just hard for me to see how we get the big upsides you think are at least conceivable. Can you come up with a plausible scenario? A big spurt in earnings growth? Negati...
by HomerJ
Sun Feb 17, 2019 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes
Replies: 105
Views: 11422

Re: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes

The reason I am not making changes triggered by CAPE is because i don't feel like i know what the thresholds should be. 3 0 years ago, 23 would have been really high, and probably a "sell" signal. You are now saying it would be screaming "buy". On the upper end, maybe 30+ should be a screaming "sel...
by HomerJ
Sun Feb 17, 2019 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes
Replies: 105
Views: 11422

Re: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes

Now earnings are expected to fall, due to fading tax cut effect, global slowdown related to trade war uncertainty or in general high rates now compared to few years ago. So earnings falling is a given. Hence S&P 500 should fall if it has to stay at the same valuation. If not it becomes even more ov...
by HomerJ
Sun Feb 17, 2019 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes
Replies: 105
Views: 11422

Re: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes

Now earnings are expected to fall, due to fading tax cut effect, global slowdown related to trade war uncertainty or in general high rates now compared to few years ago. So earnings falling is a given. Hence S&P 500 should fall if it has to stay at the same valuation. If not it becomes even more ov...
by HomerJ
Sat Feb 16, 2019 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes
Replies: 105
Views: 11422

Re: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes

If the stock market were trading at 50 times trailing earnings which were not depressed by a recession (as in 2009), I would not understand the market's valuation and would sell my holdings in tax-deferred accounts. I thought one Boglehead principle was not to invest in things you don't understand....
by HomerJ
Sat Feb 16, 2019 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes
Replies: 105
Views: 11422

Re: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes

Nevertheless, I am now back in the situation I was in back in October. The markets have rebounded. The CAPE is at 30.1. If you want to get out again, that 's up to you, but don't use CAPE to justify it. CAPE is not a market timing tool. Any variable that predicts stock market returns (has some corr...
by HomerJ
Sat Feb 16, 2019 2:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If your net worth is over $3 million, how did you do it?
Replies: 357
Views: 82258

Re: If your networth is over $3 million, how did you do it?

Work really hard and get into a job that makes a ton of money. At 45, married, 3 kids, we are at $2.95M. However, I’m thr next 18 months I will gross $2.5M. Makes me wonder whether saving a frugality was warranted. Hindsight is always 20/20. I’m no where near your numbers but had a similar thought....
by HomerJ
Sat Feb 16, 2019 3:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock
Replies: 76
Views: 6355

Re: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock

if I want International (non-US) to be that 20% sweet spot everyone talks about 20% seems to be at the "why even bother" level to me... Too little to make a meaningful difference. If you have a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio, then you're talking about 12% of your portfolio. If you believe that the ex-U...
by HomerJ
Sat Feb 16, 2019 2:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 600
Views: 31205

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

On the other hand, I'm not into this but for about 6% of my liquid investments. It'd sting if it crapped out. On the other hand, after sitting back and taking everything into account, I have been feeling lately that even at 100% equities in equal parts small/mid/large S&P index funds that I was pla...
by HomerJ
Fri Feb 15, 2019 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes
Replies: 105
Views: 11422

Re: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes

Chris42163 wrote:
Fri Feb 15, 2019 8:44 pm
Nevertheless, I am now back in the situation I was in back in October. The markets have rebounded. The CAPE is at 30.1.
Then why aren't you 100% out again?

(Note that I think bouncing 100% in and out is a terrible idea).
by HomerJ
Fri Feb 15, 2019 10:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 600
Views: 31205

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

On the other hand, I'm not into this but for about 6% of my liquid investments. It'd sting if it crapped out. On the other hand, after sitting back and taking everything into account, I have been feeling lately that even at 100% equities in equal parts small/mid/large S&P index funds that I was pla...
by HomerJ
Fri Feb 15, 2019 8:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock
Replies: 76
Views: 6355

Re: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock

if I want International (non-US) to be that 20% sweet spot everyone talks about 20% seems to be at the "why even bother" level to me... Too little to make a meaningful difference. If you have a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio, then you're talking about 12% of your portfolio. If you believe that the ex-U...
by HomerJ
Fri Feb 15, 2019 8:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock
Replies: 76
Views: 6355

Re: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock

I'll help the pro-international people out. 1. diversification means own more stocks and 10000 is more than 4000. Doesn't matter if correlation goes to 1.0, you are still more diversified in a very meaningful way. Doesn't matter if you only own two asset classes (stocks and bonds). Doesn't matter i...
by HomerJ
Fri Feb 15, 2019 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10240
Views: 1807014

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

You might benefit from this exercise: 2. What’s the value below which you never want your portfolio to fall? Think of this as your “freak out” point. You may be that rare fearless investor who doesn’t have one. But many folks do: If their short-term losses are severe enough, there’s a chance they’l...
by HomerJ
Fri Feb 15, 2019 2:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock
Replies: 76
Views: 6355

Re: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock

I'll help the pro-international people out. 1. diversification means own more stocks and 10000 is more than 4000. Doesn't matter if correlation goes to 1.0, you are still more diversified in a very meaningful way. Doesn't matter if you only own two asset classes (stocks and bonds). Doesn't matter i...
by HomerJ
Fri Feb 15, 2019 2:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Being content with your finances
Replies: 106
Views: 8353

Re: Being content with your finances

I don't believe you fight it, you focus on something tangible and specific rather than an abstraction like money. I don't think you have that much of an issue per se, I think you aren't content because you are focused on something too general to bring to contentment because there is no real end to ...
by HomerJ
Fri Feb 15, 2019 2:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 776
Views: 101452

Re: How much money do you want to retire?

Nearly 48 with a net-worth of about $650k. I would love to hit a number that would reliably let me pull about $70k/year post tax (2019 dollars) which I figure is about $2.5M. I want to retire at 55, but I don't see that happening short of something seriously unexpected happening (lottery, rich uncl...
by HomerJ
Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Being content with your finances
Replies: 106
Views: 8353

Re: Being content with your finances

I don't know and I can't figure out why I'm not content with it either. Wind the clock back to 2016 and I was making $50k. I thought this amount of money was insanely high and I was just swimming in it. Then in 2017 I was up to $60k. And then at the end of 2018 I got bumped to $75k. AND IT'S STILL ...
by HomerJ
Thu Feb 14, 2019 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10240
Views: 1807014

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

marcopolo wrote:
Thu Feb 14, 2019 3:31 pm
New grads are routinely getting more than that for development roles.
90% of them are not. So "routinely" is the wrong word.

(Doing a google search I see numbers ALL over the board, but the averages are in the $50k-$70k range)
by HomerJ
Thu Feb 14, 2019 3:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 776
Views: 101452

Re: How much money do you want to retire?

We want $2.5M liquid and have $2.0M (50% retirement accounts 50% taxable) currently. We are 46 and 50, no mortgage. DW will get $36k/yr pension in 5 years. I figure 3% WR ($75k) plus the $36K all pretax is more than enough (not including SS). I've got 5 years to hustle and save that $500k....:) Goo...
by HomerJ
Thu Feb 14, 2019 3:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 776
Views: 101452

Re: How much money do you need to retire?

I can list dozens of nice inexpensive areas to live in with 6 months of good weather. So get two homes. And two homes in two LCOL areas is still cheaper than one home in HCOL coastal CA. (However, another option is to move 20-50 miles up or down the CA coast, isn't it? If you no longer care about c...
by HomerJ
Thu Feb 14, 2019 3:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Missed the Boat!!
Replies: 47
Views: 6213

Re: Missed the Boat!!

goodenyou wrote:
Thu Feb 14, 2019 2:42 pm
You may feel like you missed the boat now. You may feel like you avoided the Titanic in the future.
Heh, great post.
by HomerJ
Thu Feb 14, 2019 2:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock
Replies: 76
Views: 6355

Re: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock

From 1980s to now, lot of US companies have become global. Also reverse is true. By owning stock in large US companies, you are already being exposed to global markets. owning companies that are domiciled in country "xyz" but do business globally is not comparable to owning countries domiciled all ...
by HomerJ
Thu Feb 14, 2019 2:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock
Replies: 76
Views: 6355

Re: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock

There's the option that the US falls to 25%, but only because INTL stock funds buy new offerings as they become available without the old holdings outperforming US. I.E. 55/45 US/INTL Size of investable INTL market doubles from IPOs/China A Shares etc. New portfolio is 38/62 US INTL without ANY app...
by HomerJ
Thu Feb 14, 2019 2:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock
Replies: 76
Views: 6355

Re: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock

bogledogle87 wrote:
Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:55 am
How many US investors in 1989 would have been comfortable with a 18% US / 82% Int'l portfolio? Probably not many considering the added expense, political, and currency risk.
Have those risks gone away?
by HomerJ
Thu Feb 14, 2019 1:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Missed the Boat!!
Replies: 47
Views: 6213

Re: Missed the Boat!!

My dilemma is having missed the surge for so long, does it make sense to exit bonds/liquidity into market now or wait it out for some time. I would say you should NEVER put that 40% back into the market. You're getting closer and closer to retirement, and you need some money in safer assets. Especi...
by HomerJ
Thu Feb 14, 2019 1:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Missed the Boat!!
Replies: 47
Views: 6213

Re: Missed the Boat!!

There's nothing wrong with a 60/40 stocks/bond portfolio at age 52. Be happy the 60% has done really well, and also be happy that you have 40% in bonds/cash so the next time there's a crash, you have a solid floor. I'm about to turn 50, and I'm 50/50 stocks/bonds and have been for years. Don't think...
by HomerJ
Thu Feb 14, 2019 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10240
Views: 1807014

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I used to always have very low allocation, of 17-35%. I am 39 years old. But in 2017 Aug, I started ramping it up reached 50% right at the peak in around Oct 2018 and in Dec when markets tanked, I didnt have courage to add anymore, but I didnt sell anything either. After watching my networth drop s...
by HomerJ
Thu Feb 14, 2019 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10240
Views: 1807014

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

couldn't invest regularly until 2016 when I had already missed the run-up. Ten years after graduation and all I have is $72k for retirement. FYI, I graduated in 1992, but didn't start investing seriously until 1998. So I missed that run-up and felt the same way you do. But I saved and saved all thr...