Search found 11249 matches

by HomerJ
Tue Aug 21, 2018 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is It Possible to Ever Not Have to Worry about Debt
Replies: 12
Views: 664

Re: Is It Possible to Ever Not Have to Worry about Debt

I don't even know how a 60/40 allocation would have done. It did fine. Because bonds did well, and there was deflation at the time (instead of inflation so your bond money INCREASED in purchasing power), and the even the stock side was still throwing off dividends. 4% withdrawals with 60/40 portfol...
by HomerJ
Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is a million really the benchmark for retirement
Replies: 85
Views: 8274

Re: Is a million really the benchmark for retirement

Me too! I'd like a waterfront house with that kind of annual expense. It does seem rather low, with a mortgage and kids. With zero mortgage, I could see it, but not a lot of traveling. And only if ACA subsidies remain around (or you have employer health insurance), and you don't actually need healt...
by HomerJ
Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to protect against inflation?
Replies: 15
Views: 891

Re: How to protect against inflation?

I'm pretty happy with my allocation except I realize that I don't have any protection from high inflation with this portfolio. Any suggestions? Optimize your inflation-adjusted social security benefits. This is a good idea.... I just emotionally dislike it. Our current plan is to file as early as p...
by HomerJ
Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to protect against inflation?
Replies: 15
Views: 891

Re: How to protect against inflation?

I don't like iBonds at the current interest rate for retirement investing. The problem is that since you cannot own them in a tax advantaged retirement account then after taxes you are guaranteed to lose money to inflation. Savings bonds are also one of the few investments that don't get a stepped ...
by HomerJ
Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to protect against inflation?
Replies: 15
Views: 891

How to protect against inflation?

I have a small allocation to iBonds (moving $10,000 each year over to them). Everything else is basically just the big 3 (Total Stock Market, Total International Stock Market, Total Bond Market) and CDs/money market funds. 40/10/40/10 stocks/intl stocks/bonds/CDs. 3-year CD ladder, and Total Bond ha...
by HomerJ
Tue Aug 21, 2018 10:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is a million really the benchmark for retirement
Replies: 85
Views: 8274

Re: Is a million really the benchmark for retirement

What matters is your expenses in retirement... ...The vast majority of people retire with far less than $1 million. One of the things that constantly amazes me is that for my entire working career, I fit my expenses into my income. Now that I am retired, the standard advice is to turn this upside-d...
by HomerJ
Tue Aug 21, 2018 9:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is a million really the benchmark for retirement
Replies: 85
Views: 8274

Re: Is a million really the benchmark for retirement

you can set 1 mil as a milestone target. with 1 mil and proper investment to beat the inflation assuming you withdraw 3% , it would last 30 years of your retirement. Assuming you would also get 20k from SS, so the total $50k would get you some sort of "decent" retirement cost covered. But would thi...
by HomerJ
Mon Aug 20, 2018 2:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Excessive Emergency Room Charges - Options?
Replies: 84
Views: 3840

Re: Excessive Emergency Room Charges - Options?

Why do you think you should not pay legitimate bills for services that, apparently, you agreed to in seeking medical help? To go to the ER, it would seem that you must have been very concerned about the immediacy of an "emergency" vs seeing physician(s) the next day or seeking care from an urgent c...
by HomerJ
Mon Aug 20, 2018 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns
Replies: 91
Views: 9590

Re: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns

Bacchus01 wrote: It is a fallacy that this is a 9 year bull market. So quickly people forget 2015/2016. The general definition for the end of a bull market is a 20% decline in market value which also defines the start of a bear market. That did not occur in 2015/2016. A decline of 10% - 20% defines...
by HomerJ
Mon Aug 20, 2018 12:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is a million really the benchmark for retirement
Replies: 85
Views: 8274

Re: Is a million really the benchmark for retirement

What matters is your expenses in retirement. If you plan to spend $100k a year, and have no pension, and $20k coming from Social Security, $1 million will not be enough. If you plan to spend $50k a year, have a $40k pension, and $20k coming from Social Security, you don't need to save a cent. Start ...
by HomerJ
Mon Aug 20, 2018 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to Begin with 1M
Replies: 15
Views: 2601

Re: How to Begin with 1M

MrJones wrote:
Sun Aug 19, 2018 5:15 pm
Of course, the very first step is to fire your advisor immediately. Send a polite but firm thank you note saying their services are no longer needed.
He shouldn't even have to do this.

Just open an account with Vanguard, and work with them to get the money transferred.
by HomerJ
Mon Aug 20, 2018 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Active’s Surprising Survival
Replies: 11
Views: 911

Re: Larry Swedroe: Active’s Surprising Survival

So as the pool of active managers retreats, does the bar that Active has to hurdle become lower again? As Larry described it, and it makes sense, there is an Active Paradox which implies that the more skill is imparted in the game, the more luck determines the eventual winner(s). If and when we see...
by HomerJ
Mon Aug 20, 2018 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Active’s Surprising Survival
Replies: 11
Views: 911

Re: Larry Swedroe: Active’s Surprising Survival

It's always worthwhile to read one of Larry's pieces. Some claim if most everyone goes passive, active will become more easy. I forget their rationale. It’s because active investors keep markets efficient. The more inefficiencies (I.e. stocks either over or under valued), the more opportunities for...
by HomerJ
Sun Aug 19, 2018 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?
Replies: 158
Views: 12462

Re: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?

Avoiding the penalty has nothing to do with tax brackets or having a low income. All of the ways listed for avoiding penalties work just as well even if you are in the top tax bracket. Perhaps you weren't aware of that. Nope. The only way to avoid taxes and penalties with index funds is to decide t...
by HomerJ
Sun Aug 19, 2018 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?
Replies: 158
Views: 12462

Re: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?

No. If I tried utilizing my TSP balance today I would pay a 10 or 20% withdrawal penalty (I'm not over 65) and a 25% tax on traditional assets. Truly a (quality of) life-deferral plan. In a taxable account you have to pay 15-38% taxes. It's a mediocre investment for tax consideration purposes. The ...
by HomerJ
Sun Aug 19, 2018 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?
Replies: 158
Views: 12462

Re: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?

There are alternatives to delayed gratification, sending part of your paycheck somewhere where you have no control over it, and waiting decades for retirement at a time where you may not be as mobile, carefree, excited about life, healthy, or even alive. The best time to do it the things that you'r...
by HomerJ
Sun Aug 19, 2018 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns
Replies: 91
Views: 9590

Re: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns

are you really going to change something? Yes, you can always control how much your withdraw from your portfolio. So if Vanguard predicts a 68% chance of -2% - 12% instead of a 68% chance of -3% - 11%, you are telling me you would start taking more out of your portfolio? I submit a more reasonable ...
by HomerJ
Sun Aug 19, 2018 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns
Replies: 91
Views: 9590

Re: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns

I mean, wouldn't it be more accurate to say that Vanguard "predicts" that there is a 68% probability of annualized market returns for the next 10 years being between -3% and 11%, assuming that they use 6% as the annualization of the 10-year standard deviation for U.S. equities? This. Doesn't really...
by HomerJ
Sun Aug 19, 2018 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?
Replies: 158
Views: 12462

Re: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?

I never said anybody can be FI within 5 years if they invest in real estate. Show me where I said that. Here you go. Ability to retire in 3-5 years on a teacher's salary and a teachers IQ. Happens every day with real estate. So sometimes it only takes 3 years! Awesome! Waiting 5 years was the deal-...
by HomerJ
Sun Aug 19, 2018 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?
Replies: 158
Views: 12462

Re: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?

RE absolutely can be an amazing investment, but WanderingDoc's hyperbole about how many "normal" people out there do it with amazing results and the suggestion that anybody can do it and be FI in 5yrs... This is EXACTLY the same as a person coming on here who bought bitcoin or Netflix 5 years ago a...
by HomerJ
Sun Aug 19, 2018 12:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns
Replies: 91
Views: 9590

Re: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns

so if all experts agree that US will do worse than Int'l over the next 10 years, https://www.morningstar.com/articles/842900/experts-forecast-longterm-stock-and-bond-returns-2.html why are there people here who say you don't need Int'l? (based on last 10 years results I guess) Here's a fun story fr...
by HomerJ
Sat Aug 18, 2018 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?
Replies: 158
Views: 12462

Re: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?

In a taxable account you have to pay 15-38% taxes. It's a mediocre investment for tax consideration purposes. It's 0%-20% for long-term capital gains (money held for more than 1 year). If your income is below $38,000 (single) or $77,000 (married), it's 0%. And that's AFTER the standard deduction of...
by HomerJ
Sat Aug 18, 2018 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?
Replies: 158
Views: 12462

Re: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?

But when it comes down to it, being free in several years - not several decades - is the crux of the matter. Yes, yes, WanderingDoc... you invested in the hottest real estate on the planet at exactly the right time before it exploded upwards and right when mortgage interest rates were the lowest th...
by HomerJ
Sat Aug 18, 2018 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?
Replies: 158
Views: 12462

Re: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?

My life can't really spare time or effort right now, so I'd have to hire a maintenance company for a cost. If I was a tenant in my own little 1600sq ft. house that I was renting from you, I would have called your maintenance company about seventeen times so far this year, wiping out the entire amou...
by HomerJ
Fri Aug 17, 2018 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How Best to Utilize Permanent Life Insurance Upon Retirement
Replies: 22
Views: 1630

Re: How Best to Utilize Permanent Life Insurance Upon Retirement

I purchased permanent life insurance because it is permanent, not because it is a good investment. I want something to leave behind no matter when I pass on that is tax-free to my estate. You would have passed on far more if you had bought term life for 30 years, and invested the difference in Tota...
by HomerJ
Thu Aug 16, 2018 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How Best to Utilize Permanent Life Insurance Upon Retirement
Replies: 22
Views: 1630

Re: How Best to Utilize Permanent Life Insurance Upon Retirement

I purchased permanent life insurance because it is permanent, not because it is a good investment. I want something to leave behind no matter when I pass on that is tax-free to my estate. You would have passed on far more if you had bought term life for 30 years, and invested the difference in Tota...
by HomerJ
Thu Aug 16, 2018 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How Best to Utilize Permanent Life Insurance Upon Retirement
Replies: 22
Views: 1630

Re: How Best to Utilize Permanent Life Insurance Upon Retirement

I purchased permanent life insurance because it is permanent, not because it is a good investment. I want something to leave behind no matter when I pass on that is tax-free to my estate. You would have passed on far more if you had bought term life for 30 years, and invested the difference in Tota...
by HomerJ
Thu Aug 16, 2018 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retire in Florida or Alabama?
Replies: 107
Views: 7310

Re: Retire in Florida or Alabama?

Meanwhile, any time you're considering living at sea level in an area prone to flooding and storms, it's prudent to account for it in your planning. Most ocean front property is going to get hit by a storm sooner or later with corresponding high water levels. Every time I'm watching HGTV Beachfront...
by HomerJ
Thu Aug 16, 2018 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case for Multifactor Funds
Replies: 17
Views: 1161

Re: The Case for Multifactor Funds

One problem is that if you look at the correlations between the 5 major factors, there are a lot of minus signs. As value factor exposure increases, for example, momentum becomes more negative, as does quality and low volatility. In the end factors can cancel each other out to zero. This has always...
by HomerJ
Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6759
Views: 1470475

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Interesting fact: VIX just went from under 10.50 to over 16.50 within 4 trading sessions for only the 3rd time in history. Here are the other 2 times (and today). Both came 6 months before a massive drop. Yes, n=2 is just silly but these events clearly weren't short term bearish. If you recall the ...
by HomerJ
Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:51 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: As an American, where are some great places in the world to retire?
Replies: 128
Views: 11511

Re: As an American, where are some great places in the world to retire?

Yes, cheap is to live like locals, which is substantially below the U.S. living standards. If you want to live in a Southeastern Asia country with the U.S. standards, it will be much more expensive than living in a low-cost area in the U.S. This. If money is a driving factor, there are plenty of ch...
by HomerJ
Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Take auto loan 0.9% if I can afford cash?
Replies: 122
Views: 6736

Re: Take auto loan 0.9% if I can afford cash?

I took the loan because the math said take the loan. Then when the paperwork showed up, I paid it in full. My reflexive brain couldn't handle the additional liability on the balance sheet even though my reflective brain said I was stupid to do that. My mind is not beautiful. This is me too. The mat...
by HomerJ
Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retire in Florida or Alabama?
Replies: 107
Views: 7310

Re: Retire in Florida or Alabama?

Florida is a great place. Fantastic beaches. My mother lives there. I have only been in northern and middle Alabama (wife's parents), so for all I know there may be some great beaches there, too. Other than that, from a retirement prospective: Florida: Higher property taxes Higher home insurance ra...
by HomerJ
Tue Aug 14, 2018 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 95
Views: 3776

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

It's also possible we have a very painful 26 year mean reversion. I'm not saying I think that will happen, but it's another possibility. Just because something has been above the mean for a very long time does not mean it can't still mean revert. All that said, in retirement I'm thinking about wors...
by HomerJ
Tue Aug 14, 2018 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 95
Views: 3776

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

My suspicion is that a lot of those variables were analyzed at the time, and CAPE as we know it today is what provided the best (most publishable) results at that time. It did not just fall out of the air. It is only after the fact that people are imbuing it with all sorts of fundamental properties...
by HomerJ
Tue Aug 14, 2018 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 95
Views: 3776

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

Marcopolo, I think there is more to CAPE than historical data. It’s logical that the more expensive it is to purchase a dollar of earnings, the more likely the price is to move down rather than up. I agree with that. Completely agree that a model can be wrong. And I really agree that my understandi...
by HomerJ
Tue Aug 14, 2018 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 95
Views: 3776

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

This is why the CAPE model appears to be broken. It's been above its mean 98% of the time for the past 26 years. And it's not like it didn't have chances to revert. We had two stock crashes in that time period, one of which was nearly a full-out financial panic. Even during that, it barely crossed ...
by HomerJ
Tue Aug 14, 2018 4:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retire in Florida or Alabama?
Replies: 107
Views: 7310

Re: Retire in Florida or Alabama?

UniversityEmployee9 wrote:
Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:58 pm
Seawalls are obviously just one form of technology, you just listed a few others that are also effective and that can also be implemented incrementally.
Well none of it is free. Expect taxes to go up.

And if the OP's parents are retiring for the beaches, they will not protected with pumps.
by HomerJ
Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retire in Florida or Alabama?
Replies: 107
Views: 7310

Re: Retire in Florida or Alabama?

A valid point. However, without getting into the science of climate change, or if it is man made or not, everywhere is getting hotter. This is a concern of mine because we are considering moving from the central coast of California to South Carolina or Georgia. How hot will it be in those locations...
by HomerJ
Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retire in Florida or Alabama?
Replies: 107
Views: 7310

Re: Retire in Florida or Alabama?

My personal opinion is that due to climate change buying beach-front or beach-adjacent property anywhere in the southern half (and possibly even the northern half) of the United States is a risk not worth taking. In 20 years many of those areas will be unrecognizable. At the bare minimum the disrup...
by HomerJ
Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 95
Views: 3776

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

And why wouldn’t Markets spend some time below the Mean PE? It is a mean after all. This is why the CAPE model appears to be broken. It's been above its mean 98% of the time for the past 26 years. And it's not like it didn't have chances to revert. We had two stock crashes in that time period, one ...
by HomerJ
Tue Aug 14, 2018 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 207
Views: 11463

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

The crazy thing about this thread... Did any of you actually read Larry's article? He basically says Valuations are NOT too high right now. The preceding reasons help explain why the long-term median of the CAPE 10 has drifted upward. While the CAPE 10’s mean has been 16.9 over the entire period sin...
by HomerJ
Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 95
Views: 3776

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

But why does it make sense to believe that the 4% rule is still carved in stone? 4% rule was *never* carved in stone. It was a single study that drove *down* the general rule of thumb for retiree withdrawals. That's not entirely accurate. Yes, Bengen's study was seminal, but it was a study that has...
by HomerJ
Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 95
Views: 3776

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

Perhaps CAPE is no longer a useful measure of valuations and expected 10-year returns from stocks. This time is different. The backtesting data are not relevant. Maybe that's the case. But why does it make sense to believe that the 4% rule is still carved in stone? This time is the same. The backte...
by HomerJ
Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 95
Views: 3776

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

But I doubt that anyone here would say "CAPE is at 10! I can have 6% withdrawals for the next 30 years without ever checking up on my portfolio's performance!" Along these lines, go back to 2009 when CAPE was actually below its mean & median and see if you can find a single post/blog/article from a...
by HomerJ
Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 95
Views: 3776

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

No, you're getting caught in a mental trap by the way you framed your question. If valuations were not currently at their second highest levels in history, I'd happily sign up for a 30 year retirement plan, 50-50 stocks/bonds and a 4% SWR. But I don't consider it excessively conservative to not wan...
by HomerJ
Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 95
Views: 3776

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

I think it’s Bernstein or maybe Zwecher who refers to “Murphy’s Law Of Retirement”. An investor profits from a long bull market. As valuations rise, his portfolio swells. Seeing the larger than expected portfolio, the investor decides to retire. But he is retiring into a period of high valuations a...
by HomerJ
Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 95
Views: 3776

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

No, you're getting caught in a mental trap by the way you framed your question. If valuations were not currently at their second highest levels in history, I'd happily sign up for a 30 year retirement plan, 50-50 stocks/bonds and a 4% SWR. But I don't consider it excessively conservative to not wan...
by HomerJ
Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 95
Views: 3776

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

All we really "know" is that PE10 is presently at its second highest level in history. And whenever we've reached these types of levels before, long term returns have been abysmal. This is false. 1996 was the second highest level in history at the time, and long term returns have been 9% nominal, v...
by HomerJ
Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 95
Views: 3776

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

For those who don't believe valuation matters, I suppose this excellent article can just be discarded. But for those who are a little bit more philosophical about how recency bias from this 10 year bull market might cloud ones thinking, the chart comparing SWR vs CAEP, is outstanding. CAEP = about ...