Search found 9768 matches

by HomerJ
Tue Jun 27, 2017 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 3517
Views: 918889

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Uncle Pennybags wrote:I'm having a personal free-fall. VZ is down 18% YTD; it was 15% of my portfolio. :(
Personal free-falls may be the only ones we have for awhile.
Anyone else want to share? :mrgreen:


Why is one stock (Verizon?) 15% of your portfolio?
by HomerJ
Tue Jun 27, 2017 12:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Stop saving and start spending
Replies: 48
Views: 5832

Re: Stop saving and start spending

How much are property taxes on a $1.2 million property? $20k?
by HomerJ
Tue Jun 27, 2017 8:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Stop saving and start spending
Replies: 48
Views: 5832

Re: Stop saving and start spending

Funny side note, thought of Brewsters Millions. You want to start spending 125k more a year doubling what you spend today... I can't imagine what I would spend 125k more on in a year if I weren't adding to my assets (or buying more investments or real estate (probably because I'm so frugal heh not ...
by HomerJ
Mon Jun 26, 2017 8:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Stop saving and start spending
Replies: 48
Views: 5832

Re: Stop saving and start spending

The question really is do we need to keep saving $175K a year or bring it down to $100K or $50K without risking retirement. Thanks How about bringing down your savings to $150k or $130k a year? Dropping it down to $50k seems like a crazy large drop. If you start spending an extra $125k every year (...
by HomerJ
Mon Jun 26, 2017 8:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Stop saving and start spending
Replies: 48
Views: 5832

Re: Stop saving and start spending

I would like some advice on whether we still need to save every year or can start sending most of our disposable income. I am 43 and my wife is 39, and we have kids aged 12 and 9. We are fortunate to have an annual income of $400K. Our house is paid off and it is worth $1.2M. We have $1M in investe...
by HomerJ
Mon Jun 26, 2017 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% of portfolio balance a better SWR than 3-4% inflation-adjusted?
Replies: 27
Views: 2670

Re: 5% of portfolio balance a better SWR than 3-4% inflation-adjusted?

The drift here seems to be towards ever-lower SWR's versus 4% and little or no discussion about going higher. Just keep putting money into SPIAs until you no longer care about the answer to this question. Voila- you're done. I can't believe how much time people spend thinking about, calculating, wr...
by HomerJ
Mon Jun 26, 2017 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% of portfolio balance a better SWR than 3-4% inflation-adjusted?
Replies: 27
Views: 2670

Re: 5% of portfolio balance a better SWR than 3-4% inflation-adjusted?

Personally, I expect to retire before my wife, who's happy with her business and will likely want to keep a hand in. Therefore in the early years we may withdraw 5-7% depending on various transitions, but then scale that back to about 3% once she hits full retirement age. Wouldn't you be pulling le...
by HomerJ
Mon Jun 26, 2017 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 80
Views: 5895

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

I'm 7 years from retirement, and I'm 50/50. In a few years, I may drop to 40/60. I don't care about CAPE. I would be 50/50 right now, regardless of CAPE. It's a terrible measurement tool for timing the market. People like to say it's the "best" of a bunch of bad tools, but it's still a te...
by HomerJ
Mon Jun 26, 2017 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 80
Views: 5895

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

Here's the conundrum. With the current valuations of my portfolio, I'm at about 90% of my desired accumulation for life. I'm not too greedy...I just want enough money so I don't starve in my old age, have a decent place to live, etc. This is the right reason to change your AA to be more conservativ...
by HomerJ
Sun Jun 25, 2017 7:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we/should we afford a $2M house?
Replies: 57
Views: 6454

Re: Can we/should we afford a $2M house?

Just curious to the folks who answered no what income do they think should be able to afford 2M house value? The OP income is 900-1.2million. That means the house is 2x their annual gross income. Does that mean everyone who said no and makes 100k in gross income lives in houses that are only worth ...
by HomerJ
Sat Jun 24, 2017 6:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we/should we afford a $2M house?
Replies: 57
Views: 6454

Re: Can we/should we afford a $2M house?

You have 900K-1.2MM income including both of you with the consulting? You can afford it. If that income continues for 5-10 years, sure. But kids, and maintaining the house, and expensive cars to go in the garage, and nice vacations, etc. etc. etc. may mean you'll need that income to continue for lo...
by HomerJ
Fri Jun 23, 2017 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the day."
Replies: 52
Views: 4064

Re: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the da

Personally, I think the world is more inter-connected than ever before, so I think the reasons for investing in foreign stocks are fewer by the day.

But, of course, I could be wrong.

I do have 20% of my stocks in Total International Stock Index Fund.
by HomerJ
Fri Jun 23, 2017 2:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Siblings in disagreement over mom's house.
Replies: 241
Views: 16320

Re: Siblings in disagreement over mom's house.

I suspect this mom would be disappointed that her children seem to be putting financial interest in money they did not earn ahead of the well being of their siblings. Maybe mom should have left a little money for insurance and upkeep too if she wanted the house to bring siblings together. Why? Mine...
by HomerJ
Fri Jun 23, 2017 12:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bogleheads: Please help me pick a new car
Replies: 68
Views: 4144

Re: Bogleheads: Please help me pick a new car

forevernaive wrote:Teenage boy will be the next driver in 4 years?


Something cheaper (but reliable).

Don't be one of those people who hand their 16 year-old a $50,000 SUV as their first car.
by HomerJ
Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Waiting for the Market to Crash is a Terrible Strategy"
Replies: 27
Views: 4301

Re: "Waiting for the Market to Crash is a Terrible Strategy"

Vanguard Fan 1367 wrote:Ben Stein wrote a book on doing exactly that, waiting on a 30 or more percent drop to invest. I tried that for a little while and am prospering greatly doing the John Bogle approach instead.


Ben Stein also panicked during 2008-2009 crash.
by HomerJ
Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allianz Vision Deferred Variable Annuity
Replies: 33
Views: 1484

Re: Allianz Vision Deferred Variable Annuity

Homer, I largely agree with you but you didn't do the math. I laid it all out for the original poster to analyze so that he could make his own decision. You just jumped in with both feet after all my careful posts with broad and sweeping statements. Your math was wrong and you didn't check the numb...
by HomerJ
Tue Jun 20, 2017 10:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: is luxury car a smarter purchase?
Replies: 102
Views: 6230

Re: is luxury car a smarter purchase?

Does it ever make *more* financial sense to buy a used luxury car over a regular new / used car? For instance, I've heard BMW's hold their value and quality substantially better than normal American / Japanese cars. An article I read stated how a used BMW 760Li that is 1-3 years old with 40K miles,...
by HomerJ
Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Collecting Dividends, Waiting for Market Drop?
Replies: 25
Views: 1878

Re: Collecting Dividends, Waiting for Market Drop?

Who told you there was going to be a crash? If you are relatively young, just keep investing and reinvest those dividends. If you are near retirement, it might be time to de-risk your portfolio a bit, going beyond normal rebalancing. Ever since I started investing in 1984, I regularly read articles...
by HomerJ
Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allianz Vision Deferred Variable Annuity
Replies: 33
Views: 1484

Re: Allianz Vision Deferred Variable Annuity

The promised 8% growth was on the income base and not on the actual investment. Do some research on these and find out how they actually work. I wish you wouldn't just make flippant comments. No one is going to guarantee an 8% growth of principal. Read my numerous posts on variable annuities. I kno...
by HomerJ
Mon Jun 19, 2017 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allianz Vision Deferred Variable Annuity
Replies: 33
Views: 1484

Re: Allianz Vision Deferred Variable Annuity

Did brother-in-law get ripped off? Not necessarily. He has a guaranteed withdrawal of $7,020 in 2018 for the rest of his life even if he exhausts his investment from those guaranteed withdrawals. He got ripped off. Specifically because he was sold "8% minimum guaranteed". He would have mo...
by HomerJ
Mon Jun 19, 2017 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allianz Vision Deferred Variable Annuity
Replies: 33
Views: 1484

Re: Allianz Vision Deferred Variable Annuity

If you are under age 65 you can take 4% of $150,000 or $6,000 per year for life. At age 65 the 4% increases to 4.5%. So if my BIL waits until 3/3/18, his base will increase to $156,000 and his withdrawal percent will be 4.5% for an annual payment of $7,020.] Today's annuities of the same type offer...
by HomerJ
Mon Jun 19, 2017 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allianz Vision Deferred Variable Annuity
Replies: 33
Views: 1484

Re: Allianz Vision Deferred Variable Annuity

The only somewhat saving grace with these deferred variable annuities appears to be the income protector. This income protector starts off with the $100,000 initial base investment and increases 8% per year. Poor slob investors hear 8% increases per year and they think this is a great deal! So the ...
by HomerJ
Mon Jun 19, 2017 4:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Septic Pumping - Did I get ripped off?
Replies: 45
Views: 3942

Re: Septic Pumping - Did I get ripped off?

PlayingLife wrote:Now....to blast them on Yelp or not? I will see what kind of mood I am in later today.


Just tell the truth. How they screwed up, and how they made it right. Both are important information for the next customer.
by HomerJ
Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early retirement checkup for 38 year old
Replies: 21
Views: 2975

Re: Early retirement checkup for 38 year old

Make sure to set a retirement date, then surprise everyone by actually retiring a week earlier.

I've seen too many cop movies where the senior partner gets shot one day before retirement. :)
by HomerJ
Mon Jun 19, 2017 9:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Regret early retirement/downsizing
Replies: 230
Views: 36240

Re: Regret early retirement/downsizing

Do I enjoy these performances? Of course. Is it "fun"? I'm not sure. It is incredibly satisfying when it goes well, and I get much enjoyment from performing. Okay, let's agree to disagree on the definition of "fun". Let's also agree not to call each other "ridiculous" ...
by HomerJ
Sun Jun 18, 2017 7:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Regret early retirement/downsizing
Replies: 230
Views: 36240

Re: Regret early retirement/downsizing

I understand your general point that we all have, and need, activities that define our lives, and what we call them doesn't matter. But I imagine that 98% of people hearing that you practice the flute a couple hours a day would consider that to be one of your hobbies, and I don't know why you would...
by HomerJ
Sat Jun 17, 2017 7:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Siblings in disagreement over mom's house.
Replies: 241
Views: 16320

Re: Siblings in disagreement over mom's house.

How about gifting your shares? You and your siblings that don't want it can gift shares to the others that want it. I don't see why you would fight over approx. 50k. Stunned by this response. 50k is material to an individual. Why you are so stunned? Because you can't see a reason to fight over 50k....
by HomerJ
Sat Jun 17, 2017 7:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Unexpected raise while househunting-- should I change my budget?
Replies: 21
Views: 2278

Re: Unexpected raise while househunting-- should I change my budget?

My wife and I are rich and on track for early retirement because we DIDN'T increase our housing budget just because we got a raise.

You should save half that raise going forward, and spend the other half on vacations and a new laptop.
by HomerJ
Fri Jun 16, 2017 10:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Regret early retirement/downsizing
Replies: 230
Views: 36240

Re: Regret early retirement/downsizing

Me, I plan to take computer programing classes when I retire. I want to mess around a few hours a day with app programming. I also plan to learn about engines too. And hopefully learn Spanish (or maybe Italian). Guitar would be fun. And I plan to spend a few hours a day playing video games. And drin...
by HomerJ
Fri Jun 16, 2017 10:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Regret early retirement/downsizing
Replies: 230
Views: 36240

Re: Regret early retirement/downsizing

Is it okay to play chess as a hobby? Or bridge? Or poker? Can one play video games on the Internet with other people? What about a LAN party where the people are in the same room with you? Is it just video games that are bad or all games? Can I play basketball or golf? Or water volleyball? Are those...
by HomerJ
Fri Jun 16, 2017 10:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it worth moving for a better public high school?
Replies: 32
Views: 2123

Re: Is it worth moving for a better public high school?

School rankings are very difficult to use since in a lot of ways they measure the kids that go to the school not the school program. Exactly. I always make fun of Harvard and Yale when they point to their graduates as "proof" of how good their university is. When you only take the top 0.0...
by HomerJ
Thu Jun 15, 2017 7:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm considering buying a house in the $800k range.. can I?
Replies: 67
Views: 6123

Re: I'm considering buying a house in the $800k range.. can I?

YoungBoglehead wrote:$800,000 is an expensive house, but in the pacific north west near Seattle, that will just get me a decent 3-4 bedroom modern home in an OK area as sad as that is. I work from home


Why not move then?

Keep that Pacific NW salary in a lower cost of living area.
by HomerJ
Thu Jun 15, 2017 7:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it worth moving for a better public high school?
Replies: 32
Views: 2123

Re: Is it worth moving for a better public high school?

I dug a little bit into the USNWR rankings to formulate my response. Heh, me too.... My high school is around 1900. And it was a pretty good high school (still is from what I hear). So I'm guessing 700 is plenty good. The truth is, for both high school and college, the "averages" don't ma...
by HomerJ
Wed Jun 14, 2017 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Another one of those "We are at the peak, crash is coming, how do I invest?" posts!
Replies: 75
Views: 5314

Re: Another one of those "We are at the peak, crash is coming, how do I invest?" posts!

My clue has always been standard PE. Over 25 PE and I rebalance, probably into a TRSY heavy bond fund. A price adjustment is more likely according to that data also. I'm thinking you are using the word "rebalance" incorrectly. Rebalancing does not mean change your AA. It means rebalancing...
by HomerJ
Wed Jun 14, 2017 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Another one of those "We are at the peak, crash is coming, how do I invest?" posts!
Replies: 75
Views: 5314

Re: Another one of those "We are at the peak, crash is coming, how do I invest?" posts!

White Coat Investor wrote:When you reduce your stock:bond ratio enough that you worry just as much about missing out on gains as getting big losses in a market downturn, then you know you're at the right place.


Wow, after all this time on this website, I've never seen it stated so perfectly.
by HomerJ
Tue Jun 13, 2017 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Another one of those "We are at the peak, crash is coming, how do I invest?" posts!
Replies: 75
Views: 5314

Re: Another one of those "We are at the peak, crash is coming, how do I invest?" posts!

However, the video makes a very strong case based on economic facts (not crystal ball as someone suggested). I think even the most confident person will have a bit of doubt after watching it. I am not sure if I am allowed to post it here but it's on youtube and it's called 'James davidson market co...
by HomerJ
Tue Jun 13, 2017 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Another one of those "We are at the peak, crash is coming, how do I invest?" posts!
Replies: 75
Views: 5314

Re: Another one of those "We are at the peak, crash is coming, how do I invest?" posts!

Pick an AA ALWAYS assuming that a major market crash will happen tomorrow. Because it could. ALWAYS have an AA you can stick with if the market crashes tomorrow and doesn't recover for 5-10 years. You shouldn't have an AA for when the market is going up, and a different AA for when the market is go...
by HomerJ
Tue Jun 13, 2017 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Another one of those "We are at the peak, crash is coming, how do I invest?" posts!
Replies: 75
Views: 5314

Re: Another one of those "We are at the peak, crash is coming, how do I invest?" posts!

I have learned a lot from this forum and I already know that the best strategy is determine the allocation appropriate for your risk level and stick to it . The question is, while I won't panic and sell stocks based on one video, if we are at the beginning of a major market crash, should I at least...
by HomerJ
Mon Jun 12, 2017 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds
Replies: 118
Views: 12018

Re: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds

http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/peratio.html Yep, that's the one. The January 1996 value for the ratio shown on the horizontal axis is 29.72, shown on the figure with a vertical line. Looking at the diagram, it is hard to come away without a feeling that the market is quite likely to decline...
by HomerJ
Mon Jun 12, 2017 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Annual returns for mutual funds for retirement in 25 years?
Replies: 18
Views: 1737

Re: Annual returns for mutual funds for retirement in 25 years?

Many experts are forecasting lower than average returns in the next 10 years. This is an excerpt from Schwab: "Our estimates show that, over the next 10 years, stocks and bonds will likely fall short of their annualized returns from 1970 to 2016. The estimated annual expected return for U.S. l...
by HomerJ
Mon Jun 12, 2017 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds
Replies: 118
Views: 12018

Re: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds

Robert Shiller the Nobel Prize winning economist who predicted the 2000 tech stock melt down and more recently the housing market collapse, said last week that in his view there is a fair probability that US stocks could rise another 50% before experiencing a significant pull back. Heh, he predicte...
by HomerJ
Sun Jun 11, 2017 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Annual returns for mutual funds for retirement in 25 years?
Replies: 18
Views: 1737

Re: Annual returns for mutual funds for retirement in 25 years?

I've looked at some mutual funds and the last 10 years I'm seeing returns of around 8%. In some cases, I see 10%. But the S&P 500 has been 15% over the last 75 years or so. I'm looking to retire around 25 years from now. I don't think the S&P 500 has returned 15% over the last 75 years or s...
by HomerJ
Sat Jun 10, 2017 10:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: College admissions question - she got a "C"
Replies: 100
Views: 7906

Re: College admissions question - she got a "C"

My daughter just finished up her junior year in high school. Prior to this semester, her unweighted GPA was 3.81 which translates into mostly A's with a few B's sprinkled in. This semester she had a class with a Biology 2 teacher that was a killer and she got a "C". All her other courses ...
by HomerJ
Fri Jun 09, 2017 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?
Replies: 82
Views: 6809

Re: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?

All I know is...

The absolute easiest way for any government to handle national debt is to inflate it away.

Just saying.
by HomerJ
Fri Jun 09, 2017 9:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: (Very) Early Retirement vs Parenthood
Replies: 74
Views: 4227

Re: (Very) Early Retirement vs Parenthood

rgs92 wrote:$2 million isn't nearly enough, especially with truncated social security from early retirement. And with kids to feed, it's even worse.


It's very early retirement VS Parenthood. Not both.
by HomerJ
Fri Jun 09, 2017 9:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: (Very) Early Retirement vs Parenthood
Replies: 74
Views: 4227

Re: (Very) Early Retirement vs Parenthood

Wow, I really don't know what to tell you. My oldest is 30, my youngest is almost 15. I am very very very sad that I will never have a 8-year in my life again.... That part of my life is over. It was so wonderful. I am truly going to miss it. But I'm AT THE VERY SAME TIME very excited that we will b...
by HomerJ
Fri Jun 09, 2017 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does S&P PE ratio matter
Replies: 30
Views: 1485

Re: Why does S&P PE ratio matter

I'd put it this way: you shouldn't overreact and overplay your hand when the quality of the read is low. That's an interesting way to put it. I used to count cards when playing Blackjack in Vegas back in the 90s (when you could still find single-deck tables). Knowing that the count was high was goo...
by HomerJ
Fri Jun 09, 2017 2:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to deal with a personal finance cynic
Replies: 109
Views: 5861

Re: How to deal with a personal finance cynic

Although, I've been amused at how earnestly BHs will answer questions that I have a hard time seeing as asked in good faith. I've seen a handful of posts that do seem hard to imagine, but rich people are no more immune to their own blind spots than other people. Sometimes it is their wealth that ac...
by HomerJ
Fri Jun 09, 2017 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does S&P PE ratio matter
Replies: 30
Views: 1485

Re: Why does S&P PE ratio matter

In terms, of US it would not have worked, but what about the rest of the world? I would trust CAPE far less in the rest of the world. There are even MORE variables out there, and less historical data. People around here seem to think a low CAPE in some emerging market dictator-run country full of c...
by HomerJ
Fri Jun 09, 2017 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does S&P PE ratio matter
Replies: 30
Views: 1485

Re: Why does S&P PE ratio matter

The historic average doesn't much matter in the way a lot of people talk about it, but may be an indication of structural changes, a different discount rate, and so on, in addition to anything potentially more cyclical. People are paying more for earnings from US stocks than they previously did mos...

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