Search found 11701 matches

by HomerJ
Mon Dec 10, 2018 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS
Replies: 50
Views: 8234

Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

JimmyJammy wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:39 pm
There was never a recession without an associated DC.
But there's been a ton of DCs without an associated recession.

Making it worthless as a predictive tool for recessions.
by HomerJ
Mon Dec 10, 2018 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 8505
Views: 1667125

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

If the markets would remain around current levels until the end of the year, market historians will look back at this year as a yawner. RM Even we will. Most people here seem to have already forgotten every other drop in the past 9 years and seem to think it's been one uninterrupted rise since 2009.
by HomerJ
Mon Dec 10, 2018 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses
Replies: 146
Views: 18840

Re: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses

Depending on the age of the person and career prospect and so on , it may not be possible for someone to recover financially. And that is what we are discussing. A 30 year-old absolutely could be wiped out, bankrupt, even in debt, and still recover financially. HomerJ, How would you know? <<Before,...
by HomerJ
Mon Dec 10, 2018 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses
Replies: 146
Views: 18840

Re: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses

Depending on the age of the person and career prospect and so on , it may not be possible for someone to recover financially. And that is what we are discussing. A 30 year-old absolutely could be wiped out, bankrupt, even in debt, and still recover financially. Before, you didn't want to take any c...
by HomerJ
Mon Dec 10, 2018 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses
Replies: 146
Views: 18840

Re: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses

I was luckier than many of my peers that were laid off earlier and had longer unemployment. How many of your peers are dead from starving to death or living in a box on the streets? Your rhetoric on this issue is way overblown and limits the usefulness of your posts. I'm probably nearly as conserva...
by HomerJ
Sun Dec 09, 2018 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Has anyone adjusted their stock allocation on the dip?
Replies: 39
Views: 3209

Re: Has anyone adjusted their stock allocation on the dip?

Just wondering with the recent dip in stock prices if many investors her readjusted their stock allocation and sold some bonds or invested cash to do so. Thanks in advance for the response. Changing your stock allocation based on what the market is doing is "market timing". Keeping your stock alloc...
by HomerJ
Sat Dec 08, 2018 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 58 y/o nearing retirement - looking at economic/stock market indicators
Replies: 32
Views: 4456

Re: 58 y/o nearing retirement - looking at economic/stock market indicators

Stock market is high. CAPE ratios high. Unemployment is at 10 year low. Housing near a bubble. Recession on the horizon in a year or so. Most experts predicting much lower stock market returns over the next ten years. All of this was true 5 years ago too (Except unemployment being low, but that's a...
by HomerJ
Sat Dec 08, 2018 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 8505
Views: 1667125

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:15 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 6:55 pm
There was a discussion in another thread about a relatively flat yield curve and the threat of that curve inverting,
If that curve inverts it will be like crossing the beams in the Ghost Busters movie.
Whoa. Total protonic reversal?
by HomerJ
Sat Dec 08, 2018 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best Re-balancing technique . . .
Replies: 20
Views: 1364

Re: Best Re-balancing technique . . .

Easiest way is to change your contributions. No taxable event that way. If your goal is 60/20/20 stocks/international stocks/bonds, and you find yourself at 54/19/25, then you just change your new money going in to be 90/10 stocks/international stocks. Second easiest way to just move stuff around in...
by HomerJ
Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented
Replies: 174
Views: 11884

Re: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented

For people in the group (A), it usually took a recession and almost total financial disaster before they will change and listen. This is for the lucky few that did survive from the disaster. For others, there was no recovery. You've been in the U.S. far too long to think that a large percentage of ...
by HomerJ
Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS
Replies: 50
Views: 8234

Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

JupiterJones wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:25 pm
Sounds like a bad '70s movie.

"In a world where gangs run wild and justice turns a blind eye, one priest must put down his collar and make a stand. Charles Bronson is Father Brock McSteele in... DEATH CROSS!"
I think you're mistaken.

That sounds like an AWESOME '70s movie!
by HomerJ
Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 58 y/o nearing retirement - looking at economic/stock market indicators
Replies: 32
Views: 4456

Re: 58 y/o nearing retirement - looking at economic/stock market indicators

Stock market is high. CAPE ratios high. Unemployment is at 10 year low. Housing near a bubble. Recession on the horizon in a year or so. Most experts predicting much lower stock market returns over the next ten years. All of this was true 5 years ago too (Except unemployment being low, but that's a...
by HomerJ
Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova
Replies: 85
Views: 12111

Re: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova

TVD wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:05 am
Not saying this is a conspiracy
Whenever someone says that, it's EXACTLY what they are saying.
by HomerJ
Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The risks of equities when saving for retirement
Replies: 38
Views: 3335

Re: The risks of equities when saving for retirement

ThrustVectoring wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:05 pm
Like, the strategy I'm thinking of (60% VTI / 40% VXUS / 2000% two-year treasury notes) backtested into showing significant profits in the 2008 crisis due to the dramatic drop in short-term rates.
What if the next crash isn't anything like 2008?
by HomerJ
Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is there a point to a Taxable Acount?
Replies: 25
Views: 1873

Re: Is there a point to a Taxable Acount?

Strange question frankly. Also a Roth IRA alone isn't going to fund a retirement so I'd think long and hard about your plans to withdraw this at age 38. I respectfully disagree. If you start in your twenties and contribute the max to a roth ira and retire at full retirement age, your retirement wil...
by HomerJ
Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The risks of equities when saving for retirement
Replies: 38
Views: 3335

Re: The risks of equities when saving for retirement

Even during the last recession, which was certainly a bad one, very few (as a percent) college educated (i.e. most BHs) folks were out of work for longer than a year. Health issues can also be a factor. I don't think it's a good idea to ever have a plan that requires one to work until 65. If you th...
by HomerJ
Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is there a point to a Taxable Acount?
Replies: 25
Views: 1873

Re: Is there a point to a Taxable Acount?

You only get so much tax-deferred space. Once you fill it up, all extra savings go to a Taxable account. That's it. There's no other alternatives. Even a checking account is taxable. Now, you can put the money in tax-managed funds or municipal bonds inside that taxable account, and pay 0 or little t...
by HomerJ
Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The risks of equities when saving for retirement
Replies: 38
Views: 3335

Re: The risks of equities when saving for retirement

Can we have another post on the risks of bonds and cash when saving for retirement? Ooooh, yes let's! Let's talk about intermediate-term Treasuries' real drawdown of -32% from 1977-1981. That period demonstrated that nominal bonds at least were more risky than many thought. The whole 'bonds are for...
by HomerJ
Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The risks of equities when saving for retirement
Replies: 38
Views: 3335

Re: The risks of equities when saving for retirement

It might be a good idea to keep this range of outcomes in mind when investing in equities for retirement and perhaps assume that there's a possibility you could end up in the lower end of the range and plan accordingly. "You only get one whack at the cat." Another post, sorry. Can I ask you a serio...
by HomerJ
Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 58 y/o nearing retirement - looking at economic/stock market indicators
Replies: 32
Views: 4456

Re: 58 y/o nearing retirement - looking at economic/stock market indicators

Stock market is high. CAPE ratios high. Unemployment is at 10 year low. Housing near a bubble. Recession on the horizon in a year or so. Most experts predicting much lower stock market returns over the next ten years. All of this was true 5 years ago too (Except unemployment being low, but that's a...
by HomerJ
Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 8505
Views: 1667125

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

It is by far my favorite long-running thread. I am fascinated by people-watching itt. The last site on the internet that one would expect to find tea leaf readers, people who think they can predict or explain market moves, and doom-and-gloomers, yet ... :beer The crazy thing is the irony of people ...
by HomerJ
Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 8505
Views: 1667125

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

By the way since this thread started August 8, 2011 the total return of Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTSAX) is up 158%, and $10,000 invested has turned into $25,836. I would not be surprised that when the bottom is finally hit, you would have made more money staying in a m...
by HomerJ
Wed Dec 05, 2018 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The risks of equities when saving for retirement
Replies: 38
Views: 3335

Re: The risks of equities when saving for retirement

It might be a good idea to keep this range of outcomes in mind when investing in equities for retirement and perhaps assume that there's a possibility you could end up in the lower end of the range and plan accordingly. "You only get one whack at the cat." Another post, sorry. Can I ask you a serio...
by HomerJ
Wed Dec 05, 2018 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The risks of equities when saving for retirement
Replies: 38
Views: 3335

Re: The risks of equities when saving for retirement

It might be a good idea to keep this range of outcomes in mind when investing in equities for retirement and perhaps assume that there's a possibility you could end up in the lower end of the range and plan accordingly. "You only get one whack at the cat." You get what you get. Of course, it's a ra...
by HomerJ
Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The risks of equities when saving for retirement
Replies: 38
Views: 3335

Re: The risks of equities when saving for retirement

The analysis is flawed. However, I believe that historical returns paint too rosy a picture going forward, so I will scale down the historical returns to produce an average annual arithmetic real return for stocks of 5% and 1% for bonds. Garbage in, garbage out. You can't use historical 20-year bloc...
by HomerJ
Wed Dec 05, 2018 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar forum gone?
Replies: 11
Views: 1518

Re: Morningstar forum gone?

Morningstar website is currently somewhat broken.

I can't see any charts for instance.
by HomerJ
Wed Dec 05, 2018 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 8505
Views: 1667125

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Days with 2% or greater drops ... 2018: 11 (so far) What index or (better) ticker symbol? And how many days in 2018 of gains of 2% or greater? SPX 2018 - days of 2% or greater drops: 11 2018 - days of 2% or greater gains: 4 2018 - days of 1% or greater drops: 25 2018 - days of 1% or greater gains: ...
by HomerJ
Wed Dec 05, 2018 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses
Replies: 146
Views: 18840

Re: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses

If you were responsible for managing money during 2007-2008, you probably had some inkling that a financial emergency was underway. Presumably investors in 1929 also "knew it when they saw it." Both of these assumptions are provably false. Sorry, but plenty of well-educated, experienced money manag...
by HomerJ
Wed Dec 05, 2018 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses
Replies: 146
Views: 18840

Re: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses

To the extent that "be prepared for losses" means "be prepared to sit there and watch the portfolio decline by 30-40-50% because that does happen, you know, and we bogleheads must tune out the noise," such advice is suspect. It doesn't make sense for many investors at any age to fail to make defens...
by HomerJ
Tue Dec 04, 2018 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova
Replies: 85
Views: 12111

Re: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova

It's worth pointing out that enjoying the gains from stocks has required that one endures long periods where stocks are dead money, in terms of gains above those realized by holding cash (T-bills). Beginning in 1972, you had dead money in stocks for about 14 years. Then came a period of gains that ...
by HomerJ
Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 8505
Views: 1667125

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I hear these stories, but still believe it's unsmart to take risks you don't need to take. Sometimes we win, sometimes we lose. A few people have gotten rich taking chances in the stock market. A lot more have gotten poor. Everyone who was able to buy and hold in the past is rich today. If a "lot m...
by HomerJ
Mon Dec 03, 2018 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 8505
Views: 1667125

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

With higher rates and the disappearance of ZIRP, it seems likely that the stock market is living on borrowed time and that the place to be is in short fixed income. See, this is where you depart from the rest of us who are conservative Bogleheads. You talk about the "need" to take risk, and how som...
by HomerJ
Sun Dec 02, 2018 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My mutual funds are declining, please help!
Replies: 54
Views: 5081

Re: My mutual funds are declining, please help!

people are afraid of crashes because it can potentially cause financial ruin even if you stay the course... 2000-2013 was flat inflation adjusted, that is 13 whole years with nothing to show for it while taking substantial capital risk. If one would've sinply put their money in a risk free CD they ...
by HomerJ
Sun Dec 02, 2018 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova
Replies: 85
Views: 12111

Re: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova

I'm so confused. I thought people who invested starting in 2000 were barely breaking even. The S&P 500 is about double what it was in January of 2000. That doesn't take inflation into account, but it also doesn't take dividends into account. Vanguard's S&P 500 index fund return including dividends ...
by HomerJ
Sat Dec 01, 2018 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My mutual funds are declining, please help!
Replies: 54
Views: 5081

Re: My mutual funds are declining, please help!

just read an article that said a lot of younger investors are freaking out because they have never really experienced truly volatile markets.. I do recall in years past where 3-5% declines happened frequently and nobody even blinked... now we have a 5% decline and everyone is freaking out. I person...
by HomerJ
Fri Nov 30, 2018 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My mutual funds are declining, please help!
Replies: 54
Views: 5081

Re: My mutual funds are declining, please help!

just read an article that said a lot of younger investors are freaking out because they have never really experienced truly volatile markets.. I do recall in years past where 3-5% declines happened frequently and nobody even blinked... now we have a 5% decline and everyone is freaking out. I person...
by HomerJ
Fri Nov 30, 2018 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova
Replies: 85
Views: 12111

Re: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova

I tend to think the writer meant we won't see those types of returns going forward based on today's levels. I don't think he was thinking about the market dropping by 67% and then going up 200% over the following 10 years, although it could happen. He said in "in our lifetimes". The next ten years ...
by HomerJ
Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova
Replies: 85
Views: 12111

Re: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova

Basic thesis is that the S&P 500 returns have been out of this world since the global financial crisis and is highly unlikely to repeat this performance in our lifetimes. That is a really stupid thesis. Seriously. It's already repeated twice in my lifetime, in the 90s and in the 2010s. These kind o...
by HomerJ
Fri Nov 30, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Significant Change in Salary - What to Change
Replies: 21
Views: 2500

Re: Significant Change in Salary - What to Change

I've done some projections assuming things didn't change drastically between current and new employee (e.g. a huge increase in cost for benefits) and with the new salary, I'm projecting us to have around $7K available at the end of the month. So your significant other isn't quitting his job? Guess ...
by HomerJ
Fri Nov 30, 2018 11:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do Bogleheads justify taking vacation?
Replies: 102
Views: 4375

Re: How do Bogleheads justify taking vacation?

Nothing wrong with disliking travel. Different strokes for different folks. But if you have NOTHING you'd rather do than go to work, then either you are very very blessed (because your work is so wonderful), or very very cursed (because the rest of your life is so bad). Taking a day off doesn't have...
by HomerJ
Fri Nov 30, 2018 10:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Significant Change in Salary - What to Change
Replies: 21
Views: 2500

Re: Significant Change in Salary - What to Change

I've done some projections assuming things didn't change drastically between current and new employee (e.g. a huge increase in cost for benefits) and with the new salary, I'm projecting us to have around $7K available at the end of the month. So your significant other isn't quitting his job? Guess ...
by HomerJ
Fri Nov 30, 2018 10:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Significant Change in Salary - What to Change
Replies: 21
Views: 2500

Re: Significant Change in Salary - What to Change

Another question. My current employer has a pension plan which I have a cash balance of around $32K as of 4/30/18. The estimated cash balance benefit commencing on 6/1/2048 is $139K or $812/mo (5% per year interest credit). Is this something I should just leave or pull the lump sum and invest? 5% a...
by HomerJ
Fri Nov 30, 2018 9:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Significant Change in Salary - What to Change
Replies: 21
Views: 2500

Re: Significant Change in Salary - What to Change

So what should NOT change, is your level of spending. This. Assuming you already have a comfortable lifestyle, take this opportunity to really boost your savings. You can up your lifestyle a little, but do it with discretionary items, like better or more vacations, and maybe some fun consumer items...
by HomerJ
Thu Nov 29, 2018 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First Crypto ETF Index Fund launched!!! $HODL
Replies: 67
Views: 5524

Re: First Crypto ETF Index Fund launched!!! $HODL

The whole thing is just a big joke, even the name of the ETF. I feel badly for anyone putting serious money into the entire asset class. It's amazing that you can create a fake ETF with a joke name, write in your prospectus that this not really a prospectus, list all the ways investors will probabl...
by HomerJ
Thu Nov 29, 2018 12:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: $25k -18 days Galapagos & Machu Picchu Trek (family of 4).
Replies: 32
Views: 3353

Re: $25k -18 days Galapagos & Machu Picchu Trek (family of 4).

Cusco has amazing hiking, but highly recommend steering clear of Macchu Picchu and doing basically anything else--I did Choquequirao and Inca Trail/Macchu Picchu and highly recommend the former. It's also super cheap and there's no need to book hotels in advance of your stay really. In fact may be ...
by HomerJ
Wed Nov 28, 2018 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Adjust for projected bear market?
Replies: 18
Views: 1942

Re: Adjust for projected bear market?

Wow, that doesn't seem like a very good place to get investment advice

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-m ... 2016-03-30
by HomerJ
Wed Nov 28, 2018 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My mutual funds are declining, please help!
Replies: 54
Views: 5081

Re: My mutual funds are declining, please help!

Jesteroftheswamp wrote:
Wed Nov 28, 2018 12:11 pm
This feels like a good time to put the Bogleheads Investment book I read years ago to use!
I think you should re-read that book, because you've apparently forgotten most of it. :)
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 27, 2018 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leverage Success Stories
Replies: 68
Views: 8241

Re: Leverage Success Stories

Interesting thread. I looked at UPRO in PV and the results were: 3 times as much volatility Just under 3x return What’s the expected drop of a UPRO, if the market drops 50%? Well SSO (2x leverage) was around during the last crash, and it lost 80% at the bottom. So 3x leverage would be down 90%+ I a...
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 27, 2018 1:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: List of costs that go away/decrease and increase/appear in retirement
Replies: 69
Views: 5765

Re: List of costs that go away/decrease and increase/appear in retirement

-- some reasons why you might want to increase your budget for unknowns. These items can also derail retirement plans. 1. A new home 2. A second home, at the beach/lake/Florida/etc. 3. Motor home, boat, cars, toys/hobbies 4. Assisting children/grandchildren: down payments/mortgages/college/cars/ret...
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 27, 2018 9:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I go back to my 6 figure job?
Replies: 20
Views: 2388

Re: Should I go back to my 6 figure job?

Negotiate humane vacation package with first company, at least 4 weeks PTO. See if you can structure a 40-hour work week. So old job will take you back without issue? Also what about the sentiment at the old job, will they have some bias towards you since you've left them before, what's keeping you...