Search found 10367 matches

by HomerJ
Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sell Home Depot?
Replies: 9
Views: 329

Re: Sell Home Depot?

sell it. It's a going to be very poor stock. You are going to end up losing.
by HomerJ
Tue Jan 16, 2018 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can We Retire in Hawaii? Please Critique
Replies: 90
Views: 7011

Re: Can We Retire in Hawaii? Please Critique

Captain and Tennille:. Dual Retirement. Retired university professor. DW. Retired educator. Age 80's. No mortgage. No debts. Home value 1.2 million. They are a little comfortable. Very very frugal. And live well below their means. Sonny is a Boglehead with a large portfolio in a 50/50 allocation. 2...
by HomerJ
Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone disenchanted with retirement?
Replies: 151
Views: 14724

Re: Anyone disenchanted with retirement?

Are you familiar with correlation and causation? I was going to ask YOU that question since you are the one who linked a usatoday story. Weird that you understand the difference yet still think those kind of studies mean anything. If the choice is between watching TV all day and work, I'm guessing ...
by HomerJ
Mon Jan 15, 2018 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can the Schiller P/E ratio be used for tactical allocation?
Replies: 13
Views: 663

Re: Can the Schiller P/E ratio be used for tactical allocation?

In January of last year there were several indications of long term opportunity: EM and Int P/E were low relative to their individual historical trends, they were low relative to the US compared to their historical trends, they had been depressed for many years, profits appeared to be increasing, a...
by HomerJ
Mon Jan 15, 2018 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can the Schiller P/E ratio be used for tactical allocation?
Replies: 13
Views: 663

Re: Can the Schiller P/E ratio be used for tactical allocation?

I don't think the Shiller (no C in his name) CAPE can be used for anything except predicting the stock market crash of 2000-2002, once . And now that everyone knows about it, it won't work again. It didn't even work for that. Shiller's CAPE "predicted" that stocks were overvalued in 1996, not 2000....
by HomerJ
Sun Jan 14, 2018 2:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heading for a top?
Replies: 103
Views: 7643

Re: Heading for a top?

MnD suggested 1/1/91 as a starting point; I suggested 1/1/09 as an ending point because I wanted to show that those who got out even very early in a bull market (which of course can only be known in retrospect) might not always be unhappy with the result. The essential info is not that stocks conti...
by HomerJ
Sat Jan 13, 2018 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heading for a top?
Replies: 103
Views: 7643

Re: Heading for a top?

Who cares if it is at the top? I can't understand why folks are so scared of the market dropping and losing money. It is NORMAL for the market to fall. Folks treat it as if it is so abnormal as one has to figure out a plan to avoid it. THIS. Oh my goodness, THIS. Guys, the 10% historical long-term ...
by HomerJ
Sat Jan 13, 2018 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heading for a top?
Replies: 103
Views: 7643

Re: Heading for a top?

The idea of dogmatically calling any subjective judgement used to shift an aa is silly. Shifting from 60/40 to 50/50 when CAPE hits 40 something is just plain common sense - same as shifting 60/40 to 70/30 during/after a major drawdown. Why is that common sense? In 1996, CAPE crossed 25. It had nev...
by HomerJ
Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?
Replies: 35
Views: 2397

Re: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?

A funny observation CULater, is that even valuations of P/E ratios somehow seem to have stopped working as a prediction factor. As soon as they were quantified and became known, they stopped working. PE ratios have been far above the historical average for 25 years. That's even during TWO stock mark...
by HomerJ
Fri Jan 12, 2018 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% Withdrawal vs Yield as Income
Replies: 41
Views: 2102

Re: 4% Withdrawal vs Yield as Income

People are making this way too hard. Look, the 4% withdrawals include dividends. If I was 100% Total Stock Market Index in retirement (I wouldn't be), I'll get the 2% dividends from it, and then sell another 2% each year. If you don't want to sell any of your shares ever, then you'll only get the 2%...
by HomerJ
Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kodakcoin
Replies: 101
Views: 7908

Re: Kodakcoin

...A crypto currency key (or a password that allows access to the key) is basically a bearer instrument, like a pile of dollar bills... Just to be clear: bitcoin can be stolen? Bitcoin can even be stolen without your knowledge? If someone gets a copy of your key, they could cash in your bitcoin and...
by HomerJ
Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kodakcoin
Replies: 101
Views: 7908

Re: Kodakcoin

HardHitter wrote:
Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:57 am
those who hold and invest in the right companies
Ah, it's easy then! Just buy the right companies, and avoid the wrong ones!

"Buy the right companies, wait until it goes up, then sell some. If it don't go up, don't buy it"

- Apologies to Will Rogers
by HomerJ
Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kodakcoin
Replies: 101
Views: 7908

Re: Kodakcoin

My current view is that owning Ethereum is like owning Power Plants in the 1900's. Those power plants fueled the industrial revolution. I want to own that, and that is the power of Crypto Assets, all/most can own a small piece of the power plants today. Blockchain may be the new power plant technol...
by HomerJ
Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A half year at full pay or a full year at half pay?
Replies: 49
Views: 4581

Re: Yes, I will be working during my sabbatical

Mea culpa... it was a poor choice of words in the original title. It's not "time off". I will be working full time during the sabbatical (two research projects, and developing a new course, also working with a former student to publish a paper). Thank you for the clarification. My apologies for the...
by HomerJ
Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much/little money to give kids in will so they continue to work
Replies: 95
Views: 7887

Re: How much/little money to give kids in will so they continue to work

Give them a dollar from the trust for every dollar they earn.
by HomerJ
Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A half year at full pay or a full year at half pay?
Replies: 49
Views: 4581

Re: A half year off at full pay or a full year off at half pay?

No wonder tuition has gone through the roof... :) I cannot believe that a percentage of the money I send to my kid's college is being given to professors who are "taking a year off with half-pay and full benefits". That said, if my employer offered me that deal, I would take the full year instead of...
by HomerJ
Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay off student loans after kid graduates?
Replies: 35
Views: 2139

Re: Pay off student loans after kid graduates?

I have rewarded my children with a merit based system. For education: 25 cents for silver stars. (not sure if teachers still do this) 50 cents for gold stars. 1$ for B's 4$ for A's x for GPA depending on level. And so forth. Student loans paid off for graduation from trade school, or Univ., etc. pl...
by HomerJ
Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay off student loans after kid graduates?
Replies: 35
Views: 2139

Re: Pay off student loans after kid graduates?

Still have memories of of eating cheese sandwiches while paying down my own loans. Maybe that experience made you wiser with money. But that said, we paid off our first daughter's student loans.... But I would suggest letting him make payments for 6 months first, so he appreciates it more. That's h...
by HomerJ
Wed Jan 10, 2018 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 293
Views: 24706

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

I just wanted to know that if you had to you could live off of the 100% stock portfolio knowing that it's very volatile? In other words just live off the income from the portfolio but let the portfolio float in the market. If your portfolio is big enough relative to your withdrawals and you can sta...
by HomerJ
Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 293
Views: 24706

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

siamond wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:12 am
2. If you prefer a more user-friendly display, use the Withdrawal Rates calculator from Portfoliocharts.com
It's a very cool site. It's unfortunate it only uses data from 1972 to today, since that misses the Great Depression years, and the mid 1960s years (the worst years to retire so far)
by HomerJ
Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 293
Views: 24706

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

I just wanted to know that if you had to you could live off of the 100% stock portfolio knowing that it's very volatile? In other words just live off the income from the portfolio but let the portfolio float in the market. Stock index funds throw off 2% dividends, so that is equivalent to having 50...
by HomerJ
Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 293
Views: 24706

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

I think that the 4% WR would probably still hold, but I would still be one nervous nellie if my portfolio dropped by 30-50% and stayed there for a few years. Well, hopefully it would only drop by 15%-25% if you were 50/50. Most of us here can cut back spending 15% if we needed to in retirement. Eve...
by HomerJ
Tue Jan 09, 2018 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 293
Views: 24706

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Here's how another portfolio, the Larry Portfolio, used by many Bogleheads, would have fared for year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule'. The portfolio is 15% small cap value (VISVX), 15% emerging markets (VEIEX), and 70% TBM (VBMFX). It's worth noting that the stock to bond allocation of the Larry ...
by HomerJ
Tue Jan 09, 2018 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 293
Views: 24706

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Unfortunately, people tend to run out of money ex-post, not ex-ante, and the employability of the average 90yo is dubious at best. Well, usually what kills a retirement plan is a bad crash right at the beginning of retirement, and it's much easier for someone 1-3 years out of the workforce to find ...
by HomerJ
Tue Jan 09, 2018 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 293
Views: 24706

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

How does any of your argumentation invalidate the fact that the consequences of running out of money are worse than those of running out of time ? I didn't say anything about the chances of running out of money, which are indeed very low for anybody with near full flexibility as outlays are concern...
by HomerJ
Tue Jan 09, 2018 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 293
Views: 24706

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

and they sat there at 4% rather than increase their discretionary spending... reallY? Why would you increase spending? If you wanted more money, you would have keep on working more years. At some point when you enter the upper middle class (100k+), you rapidly buy everything you want and you have t...
by HomerJ
Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 293
Views: 24706

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

A constant, real terms withdrawal rate, 4% is IMHO very silly. You have to be an absolute idiot if you see your portfolio halved overnight and you insist on withdrawing the same amount as the previous year PLUS inflation! All sane BHs will withdraw less. Well, personally, my expenses are already pr...
by HomerJ
Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 293
Views: 24706

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

midareff wrote:
Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:52 pm
Why would you "rigidly" follow anything in retirement?
You wouldn't, which means real people in real retirement would do even BETTER than these charts show. Which is encouraging.
by HomerJ
Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 293
Views: 24706

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

I bet a lot of retirees had most/all of their money in Wellington, so I don’t think it’s worth calling 60/40 hindsight bias. In fact, I bet Wellington did better than 60/40 TSM/TBM. Maybe some people had Wellesley or Wellington. But I don't recall the SWR folks recommending them. That's why these q...
by HomerJ
Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 293
Views: 24706

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Well said. I think in all of our planning of various strategies, this point does not get enough attention. There is no 100% safe withdrawal rate going forward. You have to balance various risks, including the risk of running out of time. Against what intuition would suggest, the consequences of run...
by HomerJ
Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 293
Views: 24706

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

At some points the odds are that we will have a worse stretch than what has happened in the past. How much you want to plan for that is up to you. I think the trick is to go 4%, but make sure there a lot of discretionary spending in there, so that things get really bad, you can still cover your bas...
by HomerJ
Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 293
Views: 24706

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

What this shows is that, yeah, a 4 % withdrawal rate, upped w inflation, works over 30 years. But you have to have a stomach of steel and be ok watching your nest egg get at least partially consumed. This argues for Bernstein’s more conservative 2-3%. Remember, this was the WORST time to retire in ...
by HomerJ
Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 293
Views: 24706

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

But a quick experiment Firecalc does not show a failure scenario from this period. Remember that big chunk of bonds you start out with that did extremely well provided a nice cushion. Bonds were yielding about 6% back then. What I would really be interested in, is a hypothetical 75% crash 1 year af...
by HomerJ
Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 293
Views: 24706

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Great post. This reinforces 4 things to me. 1. Keep SPIA's on the option table. 2. 25X is not enough, maybe not even close going forward. 3. Ability to adjust withdrawals is vital. 4. Explore alternate income streams. j :D How in the world is 25x not enough? This graph shows the exact opposite. Eve...
by HomerJ
Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing
Replies: 210
Views: 17605

Re: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing

No model is a perfect predictor. We're talking about probabilities here. What odds do you need to stand pat with what you have in the pot? You don't know the probabilities. That's the point. You're trying to market time without knowing the probabilities or even the rules of the game (or even if the...
by HomerJ
Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 293
Views: 24706

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

This is a great graph, but I'd like to see the nominal values instead of the inflation-adjusted ones.

I think anyone retiring with a million dollars would be happy if they still had a million dollars 18 years, even if inflation-adjusted it was only worth $650,000
by HomerJ
Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
Replies: 81
Views: 5850

Re: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong

While I don't disagree with your three main points, what amazes me is the lengths people who "don't believe in market timing" will go to rationalize market timing. Unless you're using the CAPE to make changes to your portfolio (i.e. market timing) then it is useless, however informative it might be...
by HomerJ
Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
Replies: 81
Views: 5850

Re: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong

Not sure why the table was limited to this range, since it is now 2018, and we have the data thru 2017. In any case, we see that prior to 2011, not a single case where CAPE10 > 20 and return > 15%. In the 6 years since then (2012 - 2017), there have been 3 years (2012, 2013, and 2017) that meet tha...
by HomerJ
Mon Jan 08, 2018 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing
Replies: 210
Views: 17605

Re: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing

I wouldn't get too hung up on trying to discount CAPE. That's just one example of many that ought be be telling folks that this market is stretched. Historically, when CAPE was above 20, the next 10 year's returns varied between -1.38% and 12.07%, as shown in the table below, but most of the return...
by HomerJ
Mon Jan 08, 2018 3:03 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Help me understand question-less financial status (e.g. "2 comma club") threads.
Replies: 175
Views: 8422

Re: Help me understand question-less financial status (e.g. "2 comma club") threads.

IMHO, those threads are confirmations that the BH methods work, regardless of income levels. Encouragements to stay the course when markets tank. They are examples of people who make it via BH method despite 1987, 2000, 2008 so I will stick to my AA when the next one hit. The actionable benefits of...
by HomerJ
Mon Jan 08, 2018 12:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can you ever win the game?
Replies: 50
Views: 5134

Re: Can you ever win the game?

One can never be 100% sure. The financial system could completely collapse and money could become worthless. But even in normal times, health care and long-term care are the big unknowns. Inflation too. But one can certainly buy a SPIA and combined with Social Security, and for a few lucky people, a...
by HomerJ
Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can you ever win the game?
Replies: 50
Views: 5134

Re: Can you ever win the game?

Sure you can win the game. For instance, in the past year, I minimized expenses while travelling by sleeping in my car for a few nights. 10 nights altogether. I used public restrooms during this time (Home Depots are the nicest in this respect). I don't NEED to sleep in my car, but honestly, it was...
by HomerJ
Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
Replies: 81
Views: 5850

Re: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong

Are we in for a long period of sideways movement of indices? If you believe that valuations are relatively accurate tools for predicting the future, very possibly. But no one knows with certainty. My self at 38 years old, I'm afraid about a losing a decade (which should be ideally most productive)....
by HomerJ
Sun Jan 07, 2018 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
Replies: 81
Views: 5850

Re: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong

How well did CAPE predict 2017 return? No proponents of CAPE have ever suggested it's predictive of 1-year returns. A longer time horizon is another story... The "experts" predicted 4.5% real return in 2010 https://www.cbsnews.com/news/are-stocks-a-good-buy/ Instead over the past 7-8 years we've go...
by HomerJ
Sun Jan 07, 2018 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
Replies: 81
Views: 5850

Re: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong

People on this board say quite often that dividends don't matter, and stock buy-backs are exactly the same, and even better (tax-wise) Interesting that predictions use current dividend yield. Real EPS trend growth since 1871 has been 1.5%. From all-time peak earnings, as a share of GDP, dare we expe...
by HomerJ
Sun Jan 07, 2018 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing
Replies: 210
Views: 17605

Re: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing

I've been holding my breath, and my nose, for five years. Someday I might give up and bail. But not today. 60/40 retirement 100/0 college Around 70/30 net When are your kids going to college? Isn't that very aggressive for money you might need soon? (or maybe they are 10 years away from college).
by HomerJ
Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing
Replies: 210
Views: 17605

Re: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing

OP seems to be mixing together two separate concepts: — Market timing ("With CAPE at the second highest level in history and the U.S. stock market acting bubblicious these days") — An older investor's AA as determined by his or her IPS I think a responsible older investor would already be reducing ...
by HomerJ
Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heading for a top?
Replies: 103
Views: 7643

Re: Heading for a top?

In any case, I will maintain my investments but I would like to get your thoughts on these developments. The crypto space seems greedy, the rest of the market seems complacent. Here's the trick. Set your Asset Allocation (AA) that you can stick with assuming the market will start a 50% drop tomorro...
by HomerJ
Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cryptocurrency Exit Strategy
Replies: 52
Views: 4437

Re: Cryptocurrency Exit Strategy

I don't have an exit strategy (because I don't have an entry strategy). Good luck and thanks for reading ~cfs~ And that's why this dude is sitting on a 12x gain in a month and you aren't. I had a friend bet his last $50 on red 18. He won, and was sitting on a 35x gain in about 60 seconds (he actual...
by HomerJ
Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What strategy do you use to reduce sequence of returns risk in retirement?
Replies: 117
Views: 7224

Re: What strategy do you use to reduce sequence of returns risk in retirement?

I plan to be 40/40/20 stocks/bonds/CDs. So a 5 year CD ladder equaling 20% of our assets. (4% x 5). The rest of the money split 50/50 between stocks/bonds. Each year we cash out a CD for that year's living expenses and buy a new 5-year CD using money from the stock/bond portfolio rebalancing back to...