Search found 20962 matches

by HomerJ
Mon Mar 18, 2024 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5216
Views: 832890

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Mar 18, 2024 11:50 pm Japan isn't the only country that caused exUS outperformance; I already stated that from 1950 to 2018 the EU market alone had outperformed the US market. That's a very long to not receive a "US premium"
EU market did not consistently out-perform that entire period. It did better some decades and worse other decades. Your statement is deceiving. Don't do that. Again I can cherry-pick a period just as long and state, JUST AS ACCURATELY, that the US out-performed the EU for 68 years.

Both of our statements will be "technically" accurate, but both won't really be that useful as investing advice.

Let's stop doing that.
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 18, 2024 11:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Garmin Watches: do you wear it at night? if not, does it affect stats?
Replies: 32
Views: 2365

Re: Garmin Watches: do you wear it at night? if not, does it affect stats?

eric321 wrote: Sun Mar 17, 2024 7:26 pm If I have too much to drink, Garmin will see it in my sleep patterns.
Heh, this is true.

Don't ask me how I know.
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 18, 2024 11:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Garmin Watches: do you wear it at night? if not, does it affect stats?
Replies: 32
Views: 2365

Re: Garmin Watches: do you wear it at night? if not, does it affect stats?

FIRWYW wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2024 12:16 am Only had my garmin (fenix 7) for 4 months. I don’t think the sleep is very accurate after recent use. Have not worn it to bed until recently when traveling and would not bother spouse. Without wearing, body battery was 80-90 each morning. Travel for 3 days wearing it with much worse sleep then at home indicate 100 every time. I probably wake 5 times I am aware of each night so seems overly generous. (Who knows maybe I really do sleep that deep though in between)
If you click on it, it will show a more detailed report showing you exactly how much REM and deep sleep you got, and at what times of the night.
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 18, 2024 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alibaba & Tencent
Replies: 35
Views: 2791

Re: Alibaba & Tencent

Funny. Since this was posted, Alibaba now has a market cap of 184 billion. Quite a haircut! Must be a lesson in there somewhere, like don't bet on individual stocks! Funny you should post this. Alibaba is now the single largest holding in my portfolio. It's trading at a ridiculous valuation. It has $92 billion in cash/cash-equivalents, which amounts to half of its current market capitalization. If you subtract all of its debt, it has something in the ballpark of $65 billion in net cash. Now, considering it generates about $30B in free cash flow and two-thirds that in normalized net income, it's currently trading at 4x FCF and 6x earnings. But wait ... if you look at the balance sheet, you'll see that Alibaba owns a lot of investments beyon...
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 18, 2024 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5216
Views: 832890

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Since the recent post-GFC period is the last period of time we have, we cannot conclude that is does represent some persistent premium. Which was entirely my point. The evidence for a US premium, outside of war impact, is extremely weak; yet many bank everything they have into a 100% US approach believing there is. I'm not sure the people going 100% US are "banking everything" on a US "out-performing". I think they feel confident 100% US will do well over the long-run, and see no need to change allocations based on various metrics like valuations, trying to maximize their return. 100% US long-term, so far, has been good enough to get pretty rich. Changing allocations based on valuations might make one more rich, or mayb...
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 18, 2024 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5216
Views: 832890

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

The likelihood of outperformance is relegated to post world war outcomes. Don't know if you noticed, but we are no longer "post-war" in Europe. From 1950-2018, the EU had outperformed the US. Cherry-picked dates (although reasonable ones), but the EU didn't actually exist that entire time, and it wasn't easy to invest in whatever somebody today has synthesized as "1950 EU" and "1957 EU", etc. There’s no strong evidence supporting a persistent US premium. In fact, much of the gains in recent history since 1990 was because US was valued significantly less than exUS, and that situation inverted. Funny enough, the EU came into existence in 1993, right around the time you are talking about. Instead of a bunch of Eu...
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 18, 2024 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5216
Views: 832890

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

The likelihood of outperformance is relegated to post world war outcomes. Don't know if you noticed, but we are no longer "post-war" in Europe. From 1950-2018, the EU had outperformed the US. Cherry-picked dates (although reasonable ones), but the EU didn't actually exist that entire time, and it wasn't easy to invest in whatever somebody today has synthesized as "1950 EU" and "1957 EU", etc. There’s no strong evidence supporting a persistent US premium. In fact, much of the gains in recent history since 1990 was because US was valued significantly less than exUS, and that situation inverted. Funny enough, the EU came into existence in 1993, right around the time you are talking about. Instead of a bunch of Eu...
by HomerJ
Fri Mar 15, 2024 2:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "22 of the funniest novels since Catch-22" (acc. to the NYT)
Replies: 29
Views: 2905

Re: "22 of the funniest novels since Catch-22" (acc. to the NYT)

turtlebug wrote: Fri Mar 15, 2024 2:36 pm '"A Prayer for Owen Meany" by John Irving. IMO, a truly unforgettable story exploring the concepts of fate and predestination - beautifully and heartbreakingly crafted with moments of great wit and humor to soften the blows.
Yes, John Irving should definitely have a book or two on that list for humor.
by HomerJ
Fri Mar 15, 2024 1:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "22 of the funniest novels since Catch-22" (acc. to the NYT)
Replies: 29
Views: 2905

Re: "22 of the funniest novels since Catch-22" (acc. to the NYT)

People don't like Catch-22?

So many good quotes.

“The Texan turned out to be good-natured, generous and likable. In three days no one could stand him.”

“Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they aren't after you.”

“What would they do to me," he asked in confidential tones, "if I refused to fly them?"
"We'd probably shoot you," ex-P.F.C. Wintergreen replied.
"We?" Yossarian cried in surprise. "What do you mean, we? Since when are you on their side?"
"If you're going to be shot, whose side do you expect me to be on?" ex-P.F.C. Wintergreen retorted

“They’re not going to send a crazy man out to be killed, are they?”
“Who else will go?”
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 14, 2024 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5M, probably enough to retire to a frugal lifestyle
Replies: 180
Views: 15196

Re: 5M, probably enough to retire to a frugal lifestyle

Do you even know how much a 600 sf apartment rent for in coastal town in Socal ? Do you know that the world is bigger than the coastal town in Socal? It is a choice to live in that area. It is a luxury. KlangFool But you are comparing your standard of living from a low cost of living state to one of the highest cost of living states in America. It is a luxury to live in one of the highest cost of living area. Some folks choose it. KlangFool What was the purpose of living in a lower cost area in a smaller footprint home? Probably a much bigger, newer, nicer home. And next to a beautiful lake with a view from your deck. And a boat and a couple of jetskis. Or you could live in a much smaller older home in CA and complain about how you are for...
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 14, 2024 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5M, probably enough to retire to a frugal lifestyle
Replies: 180
Views: 15196

Re: 5M, probably enough to retire to a frugal lifestyle

goodenyou wrote: Thu Mar 14, 2024 2:20 pm Gilligan's Island today would have to cast a "Billionaire and his Wife" to have the same impact it did 50 years ago.
I saw a TV show where this short ugly fat guy had a beautiful girlfriend, and someone asked him, "What, are you some kind of millionaire or something?"

And the guy laughed, and said "Oh, no, no, no.... I made my first billion by 25"
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 14, 2024 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Holding 100% stocks after FI best option for longer time horizons?
Replies: 74
Views: 8123

Re: Holding 100% stocks after FI best option for longer time horizons?

Haven't read all the replies but FWIW, my Firecalc success rate is always highest if I set it to 100% stocks. That's not always true. What are your inputs? All chances of success go down the longer the period, but it's true that more stocks did seem to help for longer periods than 30 years. But 30 years, it was not the best solution. Just don't expect 4% withdrawals to work for longer periods (10%-20% failure rates is probably not good enough). But remember we don't have a lot of data here. This is all in the past. Not that many 30-year periods to look at really, and even fewer 50-year periods to look at. 30 year retirement: 4% withdrawals, using 5-year treasury bonds, 0.04 expense ratio 100% stock - 94.3% success (6 cycles failed out of 1...
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 14, 2024 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Holding 100% stocks after FI best option for longer time horizons?
Replies: 74
Views: 8123

Re: Holding 100% stocks after FI best option for longer time horizons?

Haven't read all the replies but FWIW, my Firecalc success rate is always highest if I set it to 100% stocks. That's not always true. What are your inputs? All chances of success go down the longer the period, but it's true that more stocks did seem to help for longer periods than 30 years. But 30 years, it was not the best solution. Just don't expect 4% withdrawals to work for longer periods (10%-20% failure rates is probably not good enough). But remember we don't have a lot of data here. This is all in the past. Not that many 30-year periods to look at really, and even fewer 50-year periods to look at. 30 year retirement: 4% withdrawals, using 5-year treasury bonds, 0.04 expense ratio 100% stock - 94.3% success (6 cycles failed out of 1...
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 14, 2024 9:45 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who's up for pickleball? Zero-zero-two. Game On!
Replies: 377
Views: 84578

Re: Who's up for pickleball? Zero-zero-two. Game On!

I would say Yes. Here are the official ratings: Definitions of Player Skill Ratings - USA Pickleball It's not just physical ability, but understanding strategy and tactics. You need to play for a while to get accustomed to what those descriptions mean. Interesting... Those descriptions are way off compared to the skill level at my club. All the 3.0s at my place appear to be 3.5s or even 4.0s based on that (we all can mostly control depth of return, and have a drop shot, and are decent at dinking, and you definitely don't want to pop it up too high and give any of us an overhand slam opportunity) Very weird that those descriptions act like it's hard to return a serve. Like 3.0s aren't even consistent at hitting the very first return. (???)
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 14, 2024 9:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who's up for pickleball? Zero-zero-two. Game On!
Replies: 377
Views: 84578

Re: Who's up for pickleball? Zero-zero-two. Game On!

Chardo wrote: Wed Mar 13, 2024 7:32 pm I have joined the cult, er, club. Beginner clinic 9am, open play 6pm, booking more court time 8pm. From the descriptions online, I think I'm a 3.0, maybe 3.5, after one day. Am I overestimating?
Heh, yes probably.

Unless you're a retired professional tennis or ping-pong player.

A good athlete can hold their own maybe with the 3.0, right off the bat, but there's no way you have the feel yet for all the different shots.

I see tennis players do pretty well right off the bat, but dinking at the net or a well-placed lob can counteract their strong tennis swings.

But sounds like it won't take you long to master the sport! :sharebeer
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 14, 2024 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Holding 100% stocks after FI best option for longer time horizons?
Replies: 74
Views: 8123

Re: Holding 100% stocks after FI best option for longer time horizons?

Haven't read all the replies but FWIW, my Firecalc success rate is always highest if I set it to 100% stocks. That's not always true. What are your inputs? All chances of success go down the longer the period, but it's true that more stocks did seem to help for longer periods than 30 years. But 30 years, it was not the best solution. Just don't expect 4% withdrawals to work for longer periods (10%-20% failure rates is probably not good enough). But remember we don't have a lot of data here. This is all in the past. Not that many 30-year periods to look at really, and even fewer 50-year periods to look at. 30 year retirement: 4% withdrawals, using 5-year treasury bonds, 0.04 expense ratio 100% stock - 94.3% success (6 cycles failed out of 1...
by HomerJ
Wed Mar 13, 2024 8:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: SS is insufficient, very little savings, what's the best option
Replies: 49
Views: 7797

Re: SS is insufficient, very little savings, what's the best option

Likely beyond their imaginations, but I would emigrate to western Panama for low cost housing among many other Americans in similar circumstances who are living on only their Social Security incomes . Sell the US house for a permanent emergency fund only after living in Panama for at least a year in order to experience both the full wet and dry seasons at any one chosen location. Panama's tropical heat at sea level is ameliorated at moderately higher elevations. Panama uses US currency for its legal tender, but does mint their own coins. Boquete Panama has grown more expensive due to its popularity, but there are other smaller towns with similar altitude based weather, that are the affordable destinations for new expats. YouTube is awash i...
by HomerJ
Wed Mar 13, 2024 7:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is it Too Late to Invest in VTI?
Replies: 126
Views: 19045

Re: Is it Too Late to Invest in VTI?

If the market crashes, vti will absolutely crash. If it didn’t there would be something very wrong, as it is designed to mirror the market. Peaks and crashes over the long term are going to happen, so your investment strategy has to take that into account. VTI is 12% made up of two stocks - Apple and MS. Just 2 stocks. It is 31% technology. That is not "the market". That is not how to diversify. Wise to include other funds, in addition to VTI. That is the market, though. The market has chosen to weight those stocks very heavy. Exactly... There was a time when IBM and AT&T made up near 12% of the market. And that was the early 80s, I believe... Pretty good time to invest in the SP500, even though both of those stocks dropped b...
by HomerJ
Tue Mar 12, 2024 11:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: moving from ~600k to ~1.5M income
Replies: 74
Views: 11765

Re: moving from ~600k to ~1.5M income

blimp wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2024 10:52 pm
White Coat Investor wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2024 12:41 pm
BicycleBuiltForTwo wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2024 10:54 amSounds like your brother is doing much more to help the world, then :-).
Ouch.

Everybody is doing their part to push the world forward.
Don't underestimate how many people you have helped indirectly. I refinanced my student loans many years ago after reading one of your blogs. Having my finances in order and on autopilot allows me to spend more time on my career and family.
Umm.. he is (was?) an emergency room doctor... I think White Coat Investor has done his part to help the world, not even counting his blog.

Sheesh to Bicycle guy.
by HomerJ
Tue Mar 12, 2024 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5216
Views: 832890

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Nathan Drake wrote: Tue Mar 12, 2024 6:35 pm I also don't think it's that big of a deal to hold in taxable either. If it's expected to return 2% more due to lower valuations, then that will easily make up for any tax drag due to unqualified status on dividends.
LOL. Yeah, just go ahead and count on those extra expected returns!

That hasn't worked for the past 10 years, but might indeed work out going forward.

But to count on it? That's seems really dumb.
by HomerJ
Tue Mar 12, 2024 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5216
Views: 832890

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

nyejos11 wrote: Tue Mar 12, 2024 5:22 pm I was just looking at my Vanguard 1099. The amount of Nonqualified dividends that my total international fund ( VTIAX) incurred, compared to only qualified dividends in my total us ( VTSAX) is making me want to dump my entire international and go US only. No Im not talking about foreign tax withheld, thats minor compared to the Nonqualified dividends. Thoughts? Should I just dump it because of all the tax drag? Morningstar tax cost ratio is 36 on the US and 88 on the INT.
I keep all my International in my IRA, so I don't care about taxes. It IS a pain, so I avoid it.
by HomerJ
Tue Mar 12, 2024 9:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is it Too Late to Invest in VTI?
Replies: 126
Views: 19045

Re: Is it Too Late to Invest in VTI?

As I stated in my original post, My Income Account is growing by 8.25%. I never said my "cash values" were growing by 8.25%.You are welcome to your opinion that it represents a "fake guarantee," but the facts show differently. My Income Account values as of close of business 3-11-24 are $25,191.79 higher than they were when the annuities were purchased in July, 2023. Were I to "turn on" the guaranteed lifetime benefits today, that "growth" would be reflected in the income stream. I am aware that many BHs are dismissive of annuities and their "guarantees," and while you are entitled to your own opinion, you are not entitled to your own facts. There are too many comments on these boards where...
by HomerJ
Tue Mar 12, 2024 9:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where to take Senior on Caribbean vacation?
Replies: 13
Views: 1022

Re: Where to take Senior on Caribbean vacation?

Hello, I want to take my 80 year old Mom on a one week vacation to a relaxing spot in the Caribbean. She walks a mile every day but may find it hard to walk a steep incline or on very uneven surfaces. She prefers doing one small sightseeing trip a day. We can go upscale if it is worth it. Any recommendations for which island/country to visit? Any recommendation on a hotel? We don't drink and are mostly vegetarian so the all-inclusive resorts may not be the best deal for us. We are wondering if somewhere like Aruba or Barbados would work. Any help is greatly appreciated! Take her on a cruise. Easy to do a flat one mile walk on a cruise ship (usually top deck has a walking track), and she can get off at various stops. One small sightseeing t...
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 11, 2024 8:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: SS is insufficient, very little savings, what's the best option
Replies: 49
Views: 7797

Re: SS is insufficient, very little savings, what's the best option

People with less than $100,000 in liquid assets should not be putting anything in the stock market. They can’t stand the volatility. Cash equivalents are the only way to go. If they could purchase a mortgage-free condo apartment with the equity in their current home, that would probably be the single best step they could take to ease their retirement financial strain. A deep dive to list all of their expected expenses also is important. As is identifying whether her consulting business has any resale value. This. Sell the house, buy a cheaper condo for cash (less maintenance, but account for the HOA fees). Still should cut their expenses by a LOT to have no mortgage. Might even be able to live on their SS at that point. They should still k...
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 11, 2024 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5216
Views: 832890

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

My only point was that since 2010, a large component of US returns has come from Valuation expansion. And that's true. It was over 4% of the annualized return. It's ALL cherry-picking You say Starting CAPE in 2010: 20.5 Jan 2020 CAPE: 31 But it is ALSO true that Starting CAPE in 2007 was 28 Oct 2022 CAPE was ALSO 28 SP500 was 1500 in 2007, and 3900 in Oct 2022 So there's 15 years, which is an even longer period than your 10 year period, and therefore MORE valid, right? And that shows valuations have had nothing to do with the 160% gain over 15 years (closer to 200% with dividends) (No, not really, because it's ALSO cherry-picked). We can prove anything we want by choosing the dates. You need to stop posting certain dates as "proof&quo...
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 11, 2024 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5216
Views: 832890

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

My only point was that since 2010, a large component of US returns has come from Valuation expansion. And that's true. It was over 4% of the annualized return. It's ALL cherry-picking You say Starting CAPE in 2010: 20.5 Jan 2020 CAPE: 31 But it is ALSO true that Starting CAPE in 2007 was 28 Oct 2022 CAPE was ALSO 28 SP500 was 1500 in 2007, and 3900 in Oct 2022 So there's 15 years, which is an even longer period than your 10 year period, and therefore MORE valid, right? And that shows valuations have had nothing to do with the 160% gain over 15 years (closer to 200% with dividends) (No, not really, because it's ALSO cherry-picked). We can prove anything we want by choosing the dates. You need to stop posting certain dates as "proof&quo...
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 11, 2024 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5216
Views: 832890

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Several times it was mentioned that PE expansion is what contributed to the US returns since GFC. Here is one chart that does not support such a claim. https://awealthofcommonsense.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Screenshot-2024-02-14-121940.png Full Article https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/02/whats-driving-the-stock-market-returns/ Starting CAPE in 2010: 20.5 Jan 2020 CAPE: 31 This annualizes to over 4% Starting CAPE in Jan 2018: 32 CAPE today: 34 SP500 in 2018, 2700 SP500 today, 5100. More than an 100% gain in 6 years (when you include dividends). And NOT explained by valuation expansions. 6 years is noise Oh. but 10 years is rock-solid. and 6% or so was attributed to expansion in valuations So 94%+ wasn't.
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 11, 2024 6:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Much Cash Do You Keep In Your Home?
Replies: 207
Views: 14921

Re: How Much Cash Do You Keep In Your Home?

"How much cash do you keep in your home?"

"And where do you keep it?"

"And when you are usually away from home?"

:beer
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 11, 2024 6:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Treasuries - Up or Down rest of 2024
Replies: 20
Views: 1804

Re: Treasuries - Up or Down rest of 2024

The answer is, of course, no one knows.

Put $1 million in each, if it's going to drive you crazy to have picked wrong.
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 11, 2024 6:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: SS is insufficient, very little savings, what's the best option
Replies: 49
Views: 7797

Re: SS is insufficient, very little savings, what's the best option

Sell the house, buy a smaller one.

That will reduce expenses.

Do NOT go to Edward Jones. Vanguard offers Personal Account Services (PAS) over the phone for much cheaper.

But in this situation, I'd just say save everything they can over the next 5 years in money-markets or CDs paying 4%-5%.

Maybe after they have $100,000 in safe accounts, they could look to invest a little in the stock market. But for now, they need to build up that safe money, and since interest rates right now are decent, it's still making money for them.
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 11, 2024 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Holding 100% stocks after FI best option for longer time horizons?
Replies: 74
Views: 8123

Re: Holding 100% stocks after FI best option for longer time horizons?

Someone with 100% stock portfolio went broke if they retired in 1929. Someone with an 60/40 portfolio did not. (That assumes a 4% or higher withdrawal rate). SORR (Sequence of Return Risk) is when the market crashes, stays down for an extended amount of time, and the entire time you are pulling money from what's left of your portfolio to buy food. If the crash lasts long enough, you'll have spent down so much of your portfolio, that the next bull market won't be enough to get you back to even. For instance, pulling $40k a year from $1 million 100% stock portfolio. Market crashes 60%, you now only have $400,000, and you're still pulling $40,000 a year. If the market stays down for 5 years, you will have pulled $200,000, and be down to $200,0...
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 11, 2024 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: moving from ~600k to ~1.5M income
Replies: 74
Views: 11765

Re: moving from ~600k to ~1.5M income

vrr106 wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2024 1:49 pm
chipslinger wrote: Sun Mar 10, 2024 12:37 pm but I think that ship has firmly sailed due to non-retirement assets. do folks with more FAFSA experience agree?
Yes, I do think that boat has sailed. You probably have looked at a few calculators already and should be looking at a pretty large expected contribution unfortunately:)
Least of your problems. Count your lucky stars, and pay the full price.
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 11, 2024 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5216
Views: 832890

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

valueinvestor wrote: Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:54 pm CAPE investors have shot themselves in the foot, again and again for the last decade and half.
CAPE investors have shot themselves in the foot, since the day CAPE was invented, in 1988.

It's been mostly worthless as a "signal" to make changes when investing.

Even Shiller himself doesn't look at just CAPE any more.
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 11, 2024 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5216
Views: 832890

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Feb 19, 2024 5:29 pm
valueinvestor wrote: Mon Feb 19, 2024 5:04 pm Several times it was mentioned that PE expansion is what contributed to the US returns since GFC. Here is one chart that does not support such a claim.

Image

Full Article

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/0 ... t-returns/
Starting CAPE in 2010: 20.5

Jan 2020 CAPE: 31

This annualizes to over 4%
Starting CAPE in Jan 2018: 32

CAPE today: 34

SP500 in 2018, 2700
SP500 today, 5100.

More than an 100% gain in 6 years (when you include dividends). And NOT explained by valuation expansions.
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 11, 2024 9:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: moving from ~600k to ~1.5M income
Replies: 74
Views: 11765

Re: moving from ~600k to ~1.5M income

We live in a perfectly fine upper-middle class house in an outer suburb, but we've been toying with the idea of getting a nicer/better located house for a while. Its really hit home to me that my first big RSU grant (before tax) will be ~130% of our house value. Additionally at a ~50% marginal tax rate, half the mortgage interest is subsidized away. at what point do we commit to a "bigger" lifestyle? If the income bump isn't permanent (or at least guaranteed for the next 3-5 years), I wouldn't look for permanent upgrades like a larger more expensive house (with larger more expensive expenses) I would start with discretionary spending that could easily be cut back if necessary. Like spending on more expensive trips, or maybe even ...
by HomerJ
Sun Mar 10, 2024 11:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Want to leave the California bay area. Where to live?
Replies: 63
Views: 5615

Re: Is Calif Really That Expensive - Or Am I Missing Something?

trojans10 wrote: Sun Mar 10, 2024 10:43 pm Not to take things off-topic but - if you were mid 30's with 200k income and wanted to leave the bay area - where would you live? The climate in the SF bay area is almost incomparable to any where in the world. Thoughts?
Umm... fog isn't incomparable.

SF bay hasn't been THAT great every time I've visited.

Now Hawaii or Cancun, every single time I've visited, has been pretty great.
by HomerJ
Sat Mar 09, 2024 5:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it more advantageous to live in HCOL or LCOL area in terms of financial independence?
Replies: 185
Views: 17457

Re: Is it more advantageous to live in HCOL or LCOL area in terms of financial independence?

golfCaddy wrote: Thu Nov 01, 2018 9:25 pm There's no such thing as apples to apples. There is nowhere in Kansas with the nightlife, concerts, professional sports teams, restaurants, art, and museums to be found in the NYC area.
Old thread, but just for fun, I'd like to compare the professional football team from Kansas City (you might have heard of them) with the teams from New York (yes, technically our stadium is in Kansas City, MO, right across the border, but technically the New York teams play in New Jersey, don't they?)

:sharebeer

:D
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 07, 2024 11:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Body by Science Workout
Replies: 244
Views: 47190

Re: Body by Science Workout

This is a great workout, I raised my bench press from 150 lbs to 310 lbs in 16 weeks, had similar gains on the other exercises. Get your doctor's approval before attempting. Here is a summary of the exercise program: 5 exercises: Bench Press Overhead Press Cable Row Pulldowns Leg Press Make sure you do the exercises with perfect form. Start with weights you can do 15 reps. Do the pulldowns with an underhand grip. On the cable rows and pulldowns, try and pinch your shoulder blades together at the end of each rep. Raise the weight slowly over 10 seconds and lower it slowly over 10 seconds. Do not jerk the weights and do not attempt to lift quickly. Don't rest between exercises. Exercise once per week, 1 set of each exercise. Raise the weight...
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 04, 2024 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Aggressive savers: Reduce stocks % the closer you are to your target numbers?
Replies: 32
Views: 3574

Re: Aggressive savers: Reduce stocks % the closer you are to your target numbers?

Going more conservative as you approach retirement or FI status does make sense.

Stocks are a long-term play.

If you are close to a point where you might quit your job, you need have a good chunk of money in short-term investments for short-term needs.
by HomerJ
Sun Mar 03, 2024 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)
Replies: 132
Views: 15402

Re: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-2742297/PROF-ROBERT-SHILLER-INTERVIEW-How-stocks-crash-2014.html SP 500 had hit 2000 in 2014. Scary new high, with everything considered expensive! Shiller expresses skepticism about the value of forecasting - particularly economic forecasting. He points out that in the past, attempts at forecasting were much more likely to be dismissed as mere opinion. 'One thing I've noticed about history, you can search on newspapers going back hundreds of years, search for "economic forecast", you don't find it. It would be very rare to find it,' he says. 'Why didn't newspapers publish economic forecasts? Well, I think that maybe they had the right attitude. Forecast sounds scientific, righ...
by HomerJ
Sun Mar 03, 2024 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)
Replies: 132
Views: 15402

Re: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)

Just a side note, Greenspan gave his "irrational exuberance" speech in December of 1996, so I start the chart in January 1997. Okay, this is a good point. So, if we're making moves based on Greenspan's comments, then you're right, the chart should start in 1997, which makes the windows wider (One still had to have the willpower and conviction in Greenspan to remain out of the market while it went up 100%, but possible). You also need a good reason to buy back in. Yes, the windows were wider, but valuations remained high even during those windows, and Greenspan never came back and said "Time to buy!", so yes, 5 years later, you could have bought back in, but all the financial heads were talking about the market going eve...
by HomerJ
Sun Mar 03, 2024 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)
Replies: 132
Views: 15402

Re: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)

Here's US Stock Market vs US Bond Market 1996 to today. https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/d/19oIznABwHGE2WO7Jk8nOdx2idOeQ6zm6 Yes, because Bonds did pretty well during this period, there were moments in time where someone who sold in 1996 could make money by holding bonds until the market went down enough to sell the bonds and buy stocks cheaper, and make money by market-timing. But not a LOT of money, and your buy back in periods were limited, so you had to time it pretty well to make a small premium. AND have the discipline to sit out of the market for years and years while it went up over 100% at times. So market-timing possible, yes. Easy no. So no, Greenspan's speech in 1996 was not a useful signal, nor was Buffet's remarks in 2002 or ...
by HomerJ
Sun Mar 03, 2024 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)
Replies: 132
Views: 15402

Re: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)

billaster wrote: Sun Mar 03, 2024 11:29 am You can go right on believing what you want to believe. The facts say different.
I laid out the facts for everyone to see. You have contributed nothing.

I'm willing to learn. Show me where I'm wrong.
by HomerJ
Sun Mar 03, 2024 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)
Replies: 132
Views: 15402

Re: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)

Oh, and Buffet made his second comment about derivatives in the 2008 letter, yes... But that was released Feb 27, 2009.

https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2008ltr.pdf

So yeah, a year after the crash had already started, and 1-2 weeks from the very bottom. So selling out then based on Buffet's words would have been pretty terrible.

His 2007 letter did not give any big warnings about derivatives.

https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2007ltr.pdf
by HomerJ
Sun Mar 03, 2024 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)
Replies: 132
Views: 15402

Re: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)

As to the original post on Dalio's prediction - I say all opinions are interesting to read and all voices make a market. Do some voices have more weight that others, perhaps, but is Dalio that voice? I say Meh, don't care to worry too much about a professional money manager/hedge fund boss with mixed record. Now, if someone the stature of then Fed chair Alan Greenspan in today's world makes a "irrational exuberance" or Warren Buffett with "weapons of financial mass destruction" comment then I would pay attention. Yes, but even THOSE two were too soon... Greenspan said that in 1996, and the market more than doubled from there. Buying and holding from 1996, and completely ignoring Greenspan still made you rich with great ...
by HomerJ
Sat Mar 02, 2024 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)
Replies: 132
Views: 15402

Re: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)

As to the original post on Dalio's prediction - I say all opinions are interesting to read and all voices make a market. Do some voices have more weight that others, perhaps, but is Dalio that voice? I say Meh, don't care to worry too much about a professional money manager/hedge fund boss with mixed record. Now, if someone the stature of then Fed chair Alan Greenspan in today's world makes a "irrational exuberance" or Warren Buffett with "weapons of financial mass destruction" comment then I would pay attention. Yes, but even THOSE two were too soon... Greenspan said that in 1996, and the market more than doubled from there. Buying and holding from 1996, and completely ignoring Greenspan still made you rich with great ...
by HomerJ
Sat Mar 02, 2024 4:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Market Timing = Always Bad?
Replies: 35
Views: 4106

Re: Market Timing = Always Bad?

I have a question regarding the dreaded “market timing”. I know, it’s been dragged around routinely as bad, and I certainly get the idea about impulse reactions biting you. My basic situation is this (let me know if I didn't detail something that is important for this question): • I am 60 yrs old and newly retired (6 months) and have my portfolio assembled and allocated. • I have approx 60% stocks and 40% bonds+cash. Total value is approx $3.2 mil. • Stock portion is approx $2 mil. • Included in that portfolio I have a 5 year cash/CD ladder built ($500k at $100 each). OK, since it’s March, I guess I have 4.9yrs. • My bond fund is 6 years of money if it doesn’t crash horribly. • So I have 11 years (5+6) of my budget before touching stocks i...
by HomerJ
Sat Mar 02, 2024 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)
Replies: 132
Views: 15402

Re: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)

Ray Dalio's words aside, I hear of a majority of friends and family holding large sums in MMFs, CDs and HYSAs - perhaps still a bit shell-shocked from 2022, and very few have made any significant moves that I've heard of. I wonder about all of the 'safe cash' out there and how much longer this rally will continue before the masses take notice. Even my younger sibling with potentially 20 years of accumulation remaining has a substantial six-figure sum in a MMF comfortably making well over 5% and while I'm tempted to suggest that she maybe stick her pinky toe back into the water I think it's better for several reasons to let her make that decision herself. Less reason to move money into stocks when one is making 5% on the safe money. Yes, yo...
by HomerJ
Fri Mar 01, 2024 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)
Replies: 132
Views: 15402

Re: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)

trustquestioner wrote: Fri Mar 01, 2024 8:18 pm Last year his flagship fund underperformed VTSAX by like 32%. LOL [expletive removed - moderator Kendall]. And not 32% less return, literally -6% vs. +26%.
Yeah, how do you get -6% last year?
by HomerJ
Fri Mar 01, 2024 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)
Replies: 132
Views: 15402

Re: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)

See, this scares me that Ray Dalio DOESN'T think we are in a bubble, because he is always wrong.

So that means we ARE in a bubble!