Search found 11627 matches

by HomerJ
Tue Nov 20, 2018 1:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Weigh in on our Marital Argument =)-- HCOL edition
Replies: 95
Views: 8653

Re: Weigh in on our Marital Argument =)-- HCOL edition

Easy... get out of NYC Move closer to your parents in midwest. Take your $700k equity and buy a $500k 2500-3500 sqft home in cash with nice large yard and 4 bedrooms in a good school district. Set aside the other $200k to have your kids college funded No mortgage, college is paid off.., your massiv...
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 20, 2018 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7954
Views: 1619126

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

2% off today. tiny correction but I would accept tiny bit of saving. Usually, I only consider -10% of saving as start point and -40% as real saving. just add tiny bit today. By cherry picking data that perpetuates a doom and gloom outlook, 40% off comes around once every 20 years. As mentioned thos...
by HomerJ
Sun Nov 18, 2018 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Financial] Habits of the Rich
Replies: 219
Views: 26967

Re: [Financial] Habits of the Rich

There are two ways a man can be rich in this world, he can have a lot of money, or he can have a lot of friends. But he cannot have both. (Freddie Heiniken) He must have been referring to himself and trying to generalize for others. I dont buy it. I think the quote is referencing time. To GET rich ...
by HomerJ
Sat Nov 17, 2018 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Yes, You Can Time the Market!"
Replies: 60
Views: 14136

Re: "Yes, You Can Time the Market!"

When you rebalance your portfolio or dollar average you make a judgement that the price of an index is cheap or expensive. This is incorrect. Rebalancing has nothing to do with determining if the price of an index is cheap or expensive. Same with changing your allocation when nearing retirement. Pe...
by HomerJ
Sat Nov 17, 2018 12:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Yes, You Can Time the Market!"
Replies: 60
Views: 14136

Re: "Yes, You Can Time the Market!"

When you rebalance your portfolio or dollar average you make a judgement that the price of an index is cheap or expensive. This is incorrect. Rebalancing has nothing to do with determining if the price of an index is cheap or expensive. Same with changing your allocation when nearing retirement. Pe...
by HomerJ
Fri Nov 16, 2018 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if mean reversion of stock prices is a myth?
Replies: 18
Views: 1862

Re: What if mean reversion of stock prices is a myth?

A lot of what we believe about stock investing assumes that stock prices revert to some sort of long term trend, or mean, over time. If that is true, then the following implications are true: 1) stocks become less risky the longer you hold them. That's because the long term returns should be "smoot...
by HomerJ
Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR fund family's performance relative to its benchmarks
Replies: 36
Views: 2760

Re: AQR fund family's performance relative to its benchmarks

They've (AQR) been accused of being asset gatherers. Funny from a board named after the guy who founded a firm with $5 trillion in....assets! https://about.vanguard.com/what-sets-vanguard-apart/why-ownership-matters/ You find out the importance of ownership when you follow the money. Typical invest...
by HomerJ
Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Yes, You Can Time the Market!"
Replies: 60
Views: 14136

Re: "Yes, You Can Time the Market!"

Indeed. Ben Stein was valedictorian of his class....at Yale Law School. Edit - and that was after he graduated with honors from Columbia, where he majored in Economics. And yet he was unable to time the 2008-2009 crash. What is the logical conclusion from those sets of facts? Is it "Yes, anyone can...
by HomerJ
Thu Nov 15, 2018 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Yes, You Can Time the Market!"
Replies: 60
Views: 14136

Re: "Yes, You Can Time the Market!"

Even re-balancing is timing the market. Dollar cost averaging is timing the market. Changing allocation with age is timing the market. It's just done automatically but is similar. I disagree. Of course, you and I probably would argue about the proper definition of "market-timing", Switching from 10...
by HomerJ
Thu Nov 15, 2018 4:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Granddaughter needs $ help for university
Replies: 111
Views: 9529

Re: Granddaughter needs $ help for university

FireProof wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 4:24 pm
I dunno why people think a music teacher is so poorly paid. They can charge $70-80/hour.
How many hours a week?
by HomerJ
Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why I plan on buying a life annuity - even if it is a stupid idea
Replies: 88
Views: 7541

Re: Why I plan on buying a life annuity - even if it is a stupid idea

1) You won't be able to understand if someone is financially exploiting you because you'll be senile (your words) - ok, IF that was true, this person is simply going to take your annuity money. So you're still broke and senile. I would say there is a very different risk associated with someone stea...
by HomerJ
Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR's Cliff Asness – The Past, The Present & Future of Quant
Replies: 10
Views: 1273

Re: AQR's Cliff Asness – The Past, The Present & Future of Quant

matjen wrote:
Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:41 am
42:00 - Is Renaissance Technology better than AQR? - Hell Yes...but they won't take your money! (love the honesty)
The guys who are making outsize returns don't want or need customers.

The guys who aren't doing as well have decided it's easier to make money via fees from people like us.
by HomerJ
Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why I plan on buying a life annuity - even if it is a stupid idea
Replies: 88
Views: 7541

Re: Why I plan on buying a life annuity - even if it is a stupid idea

A "life" annuity is a SPIA... The only "good" annuity. You give the insurance company a big check (Single Premium), they give you money each year for life (Immediate Annuity). It's not a stupid idea. It's a bad investment with poor returns, but it can be a very good idea. Because when you are talkin...
by HomerJ
Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Financial] Habits of the Rich
Replies: 219
Views: 26967

Re: [Financial] Habits of the Rich

"Money may not buy happiness, but I've never seen anyone look sad while riding a jetski!"
by HomerJ
Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Financial] Habits of the Rich
Replies: 219
Views: 26967

Re: [Financial] Habits of the Rich

Some of the ideas here give me the impression that I landed on the "how to have a miserable life" "how to change extraordinary years of youth for a handful of dollars" and similar topics. Balance is everything. Don't sacrifice your youth to "gain" couple of years when you are old. See the world. Ha...
by HomerJ
Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Garmins & Fitbits: Worth it for non-athletes?
Replies: 43
Views: 2719

Re: Garmins & Fitbits: Worth it for non-athletes?

I have a Garmin Vivosmart HR. I am not an elite athlete, but do a mixture of weight training and light cardio. I was VERY skeptical of activity trackers, and I still think they're somewhat frivolous and silly. However, I'll say this: mine has genuinely helped me be more active. I have a goal of 10,...
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 13, 2018 6:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Financial] Habits of the Rich
Replies: 219
Views: 26967

Re: [Financial] Habits of the Rich

... When you get a big promotion or move to a new company , maybe you'll get a raise to $48,000 . Save $4000 more a year, and spend $4000 more a year. ... Such an event may never occur, and at no fault of the employee. PJW In general, staying in the same dead-end job where you never get raises is d...
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 13, 2018 6:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Financial] Habits of the Rich
Replies: 219
Views: 26967

Re: [Financial] Habits of the Rich

This certainly inspired a lot of responses. I have a slightly different take. Start a business. Don’t waste your time with VC stuff unless you have the next Uber. You’ll have to sacrifice and work hard at the beginning but if you hire smart people and service providers, you can reap a lot of reward...
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 13, 2018 4:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Financial] Habits of the Rich
Replies: 219
Views: 26967

Re: [Financial] Habits of the Rich

Live below your means. Spend less than you earn. Save the rest. Increase that savings percentage over time. An easy almost painless way to achieve this is to save half your raises. Say you are making $40,000 a year. And you're saving 10% or $4000 a year. When you get a big promotion or move to a new...
by HomerJ
Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?
Replies: 120
Views: 11747

Re: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?

While I agree with most of what you say these basic things... "Warm, fed, safe, and dry. It doesn't cost that much to meet the basic needs. With cable, internet, phone, and a nearby library too." Can all be recieved in many low security prisons as well. There are so many things to do and experience...
by HomerJ
Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?
Replies: 120
Views: 11747

Re: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?

Simplistic assumptions about some mythical dollar amount that one person can live on being the canonical optimum for everyone are actually pretty meaningless. People have a vast range of economic and fiscal parameters. Agree. This was the point I was trying to make earlier. To suggest that someone ...
by HomerJ
Mon Nov 12, 2018 9:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Still spending too much on non-essentials
Replies: 38
Views: 2442

Re: Still spending too much on non-essentials

What's your goal here? What makes this non-essential spending "too much"? It sounds like you don't have a written budget. Budgets are great because they tell you both when you're risking spending too much but also when you have enough to spend. Your situation could be either of those, though frankl...
by HomerJ
Mon Nov 12, 2018 12:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?
Replies: 120
Views: 11747

Re: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?

I'm single with no debt, paid off home, newer car and save more than twice what I spend each year. I live in a medium COL city and live moderately frugally, but don't want for much of anything. I still spend $45-50K/year. The thought of working until medicare age of 65 makes me ill so my expenses, ...
by HomerJ
Sun Nov 11, 2018 9:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?
Replies: 120
Views: 11747

Re: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?

As someone who plays the piano 6-8 hours per day and teaches music lessons , I can say the following.... It's highly likely your daughter has very little talent when it comes to playing the piano. She is guaranteed to be a Joe - or in her case - a Jane average at best. She will not continue with it...
by HomerJ
Sun Nov 11, 2018 9:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?
Replies: 120
Views: 11747

Re: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?

I think everyone should front load savings and debt repayment for several years then loosen the screws and spend more. This way the magic of compounded interest can work for you while you allow for some pleasure spending. The percentage of saving does not need to be static. This is a very good idea...
by HomerJ
Sat Nov 10, 2018 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 172
Views: 12978

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

My nervousness about hedge fund like investments is that I find long only investing to be risky enough. I have done different things. Invested in Earnings and Price Momentum funds, invested in Value funds, invested in funds that "index optimize", picked individual stocks, done Small/Value tilting, ...
by HomerJ
Fri Nov 09, 2018 11:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money are you leaving your kids after you die?
Replies: 234
Views: 14619

Re: How much money are you leaving your kids after you die?

I never worried that accumulating $1M would harm me, so I don't fear that leaving it to my kid will harm him either. You don't see the difference between slowly accumulating a million dollars due to your hard work and savings, and having $1 million handed to you? I'm not saying you're wrong. Your k...
by HomerJ
Fri Nov 09, 2018 11:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money are you leaving your kids after you die?
Replies: 234
Views: 14619

Re: How much money are you leaving your kids after you die?

I don't know how this all will play out. I'm not sure leaving our daughter something like $3 - $6MM in 20 or 25 years is a good thing. She's a responsible kid, but still. Yes, have read Millionaire Next Door. Struggling with all of this, no conclusions right now ... Leaving her $3-$6 million in 20-...
by HomerJ
Fri Nov 09, 2018 11:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money are you leaving your kids after you die?
Replies: 234
Views: 14619

Re: How much money are you leaving your kids after you die?

IMO it's a cost to be weighed seriously if 'living below your means' equates to living in a more downscale community with non-grown kids when you could afford an upscale one. A lot of influences on kids are not in the home, though the home is a natural focus of parents because the home environment ...
by HomerJ
Fri Nov 09, 2018 10:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money are you leaving your kids after you die?
Replies: 234
Views: 14619

Re: How much money are you leaving your kids after you die?

DH and I married 5 years ago, second marriage for both. We had however been together for a long time prior to marriage. I have 1 child, he has 3. All are adults. We drew up wills shortly after getting married and decided that as I came into the marriage with 1/3 the assets and he came in with 2/3, ...
by HomerJ
Fri Nov 09, 2018 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 172
Views: 12978

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

My nervousness about hedge fund like investments is that I find long only investing to be risky enough. I have done different things. Invested in Earnings and Price Momentum funds, invested in Value funds, invested in funds that "index optimize", picked individual stocks, done Small/Value tilting, ...
by HomerJ
Thu Nov 08, 2018 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 172
Views: 12978

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

I don't know enough to judge AQR's performance. But I do know that Cliff Asness is worth over $3 billion, and two of his partners are worth over $1 billion. And it's all fairly recent money, since last year was the first year they made the Forbes Billionaire list. https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathan...
by HomerJ
Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?
Replies: 120
Views: 11747

Re: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?

You are making the assumption of high earner couple that only "needs" $36k/yr. But, even accounting for mortgage, FICA etc., the couple will have quite a bit excess cash flow. Your suggestion is to then "Spend the rest". Sounds great, so now the couple is spending $150k/yr instead of $36k/yr, and s...
by HomerJ
Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?
Replies: 120
Views: 11747

Re: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?

Helpful to hear from everyone and seems that at least some see it the same way I do. I’m not suggesting no savings or extreme lifestyle creep. I’m suggesting that a couple earning $250k, who might be paying a $4k mortgage and maxing 2 401k’s is “living on” less than $100k/year after taxes, mortgage...
by HomerJ
Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you still jump if you were ready, then the market dropped 50%??
Replies: 40
Views: 4633

Re: Would you still jump if you were ready, then the market dropped 50%??

The math says it shouldn't matter to us. Would I still jump? Probably not, but only because my employer makes it easy for me to work part time, which I would do until the dust cleared. Agreed. Should be fine to still jump, but I probably wouldn't. Even just working another 6-12 months would make a ...
by HomerJ
Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you still jump if you were ready, then the market dropped 50%??
Replies: 40
Views: 4633

Re: Would you still jump if you were ready, then the market dropped 50%??

It’s the great paradox. If you retire and the next day the market drops 50% the 4% rule says you’re safe for 30 years. If the market drops 50% the day before you retire you don’t have enough... So I just tried this on PortfolioVisualizer's Monte Carlo Simulator, A 60/40 portfolio $12,000 , withdraw...
by HomerJ
Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?
Replies: 120
Views: 11747

Re: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?

(1) is huge. A plan that requires that you work until 63-65-70 is no plan. It's not up to you. You could get laid off and be unable to find another job at 57. You better have SOME savings just in case. To some extent yeah but you aren't talking a ton of savings. 36k/year for 10 years is only 360k f...
by HomerJ
Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?
Replies: 120
Views: 11747

Re: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?

Thanks for all the replies. Understanding the nuances and differing opinions, I guess the real question is if ones current expenses (after retirement savings, after HSA, after mortgage, after debt repayment) are less than projected SS benefit, and you already have a decent sized retirement savings ...
by HomerJ
Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?
Replies: 120
Views: 11747

Re: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?

The thread on Baby Boomer savings brought this to mind. For a higher earning couple, assuming they’re debt free and have a paid off home at retirement, why not aim to have expenses be at/below the expected Social Security benefit? Assuming that’s ~$3k to cover property taxes, healthcare, food, tran...
by HomerJ
Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?
Replies: 145
Views: 10555

Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

But are you prepared for stocks to drop by almost 90% and bonds to drop by 50%, as happened during the Great Depression? I really wonder how many Bogleheads could do nothing through that if it happened again. Bonds didn't drop by 50% during the Great Depression. Oh, maybe you mean corporate bonds. ...
by HomerJ
Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Guide to work out your asset allocation?
Replies: 12
Views: 1106

Re: Guide to work out your asset allocation?

Actually, I'll give you a better answer... One I've given before. Pick an Asset-Allocation that you can stick with, even if the market crashes 50% starting tomorrow. Because it might. If you are young, and feel like you have a high risk tolerance, this might mean 100% stocks. If you are nearing reti...
by HomerJ
Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Guide to work out your asset allocation?
Replies: 12
Views: 1106

Re: Guide to work out your asset allocation?

There is no magic guide. There is a wide range of acceptable values and personal preferences. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Asset_allocation#Rules_of_thumb You can play with the Vanguard tool and make small changes and see how the recommendation changes. If you really don't know where to begin, b...
by HomerJ
Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Understanding Risk & Return
Replies: 19
Views: 1556

Re: Larry Swedroe: Understanding Risk & Return

By combining multiple uncorrelated assets, each with their own particular SD, negative skew, and kurtosis, the individual can actually make the behavior of his portfolio look more like a normal distribution. Uncorrelated assets, each with their own unique asymmetric risks, can combine to make a mor...
by HomerJ
Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?
Replies: 145
Views: 10555

Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Thanks. It's an interesting idea. I wonder how it's held up in the past. Like most backtested theories, probably pretty well. The guy has this experiment going where he "releases" encrypted short-term predictions and reveals them 6 months later. According to the TED talk. The theory should allow sh...
by HomerJ
Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?
Replies: 145
Views: 10555

Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

steve321 wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:54 am
So I'd rather go to the real thing - the Scientist - than to those who try to imitate him with dubious results.
So look at "the Scientist" past predictions. Ignoring him in 2002 made you more money than following him.
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?
Replies: 145
Views: 10555

Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Here's a prediction he made in Dec 2002 https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2002-12/uoc--smc121402.php The U.S. stock market is not yet on the verge of recovery," Sornette said. "The bear market that started in July-August 2000 still has a long way to go." Sornette and Zhou predict the Standard ...
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?
Replies: 145
Views: 10555

Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

I suffer from anxiety and I am afraid of huge losses in my investments. Taleb shows that extreme events are possible and losses in the stock market can be much higher than the bell curve predicts. So I am looking for ways to manage my anxiety in this, including by researching serious methods of ris...
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?
Replies: 145
Views: 10555

Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

By using the Professor's sophisticated calculations one should be able to beat the market, not just have similar results. I'll state it once more... Stop trying to "beat the market". The market has a 10% long-term historical return. This INCLUDES the crashes. Index funds, over the long-run, have be...
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?
Replies: 145
Views: 10555

Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Contrary to Fama's postulate that bubbles do not exist because of EMH, Didier Sornette shows that they do, and he apparently can predict when they burst (in this video he says he predicted the time the stock market crashed in China): https://www.ted.com/talks/didier_sornette_how_we_can_predict_the_...
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Never thought of living in Bay Area but just got a call from Tesla
Replies: 72
Views: 7453

Re: Never thought of living in Bay Area but just got a call from Tesla

MikeZ wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:54 pm
Usually home by 5:40 each night.
Tesla could be a very cool, very lucrative place to work.

But if you care ANYTHING about being home at 5:40 at night, you should not go to Tesla.
No kids. Wife with health issues.
Ah... then maybe. With kids, absolutely not.