Search found 11499 matches

by HomerJ
Mon Oct 22, 2018 1:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!
Replies: 99
Views: 9187

Re: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!

The bond managers I'm reading today all agree on one thing from following the Fed. Shorten maturity, shorten duration. Some are managing tens of billions of dollars in bonds and are not afraid to say so. The bond managers were saying that 5-7 years ago... And they missed out. Nobody's an expert. Lo...
by HomerJ
Sat Oct 20, 2018 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!
Replies: 99
Views: 9187

Re: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!

Unfair? Although the particular dates I am using are personal to my investment, NAV is a perfectly valid metric to use. Ignoring dividends is always incorrect. ALWAYS incorrect. You are absolutely wrong to just look at NAV. It is not a valid metric to use. Any other point you make may be correct.
by HomerJ
Fri Oct 19, 2018 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!
Replies: 99
Views: 9187

Re: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!

that bond returns will probably be depressed for a similar time. Define "depressed"? Total Bond yield is now 2.73%, higher than it's been in ten years. Yes, it's not 4 or 5%. But it's not .5% either. Perhaps lower expectations are in order. Stocks are for risk and return, better to chase performanc...
by HomerJ
Fri Oct 19, 2018 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!
Replies: 99
Views: 9187

Re: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!

I wouldn't be happy with a 1.5% return over 2 years- i.e. 0.75%/year.. It does not even beat inflation, does it? Sure, but can one really call a POSITIVE 1.5% return a CRASH? Pundits and experts have been warning of a bond CRASH for years. "Because any day now, the Fed is going to start raising rat...
by HomerJ
Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!
Replies: 99
Views: 9187

Re: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!

TBM price doesn't move with short-term rates. Intermediate terms rates bottomed around July 1 , 2016 at under 1.5%. TBM performance July 1, 2016 to date is negative. Bonds are not self-correcting from (in retrospect) poor investing decisions such as lending out your money for 1.5% at an average mat...
by HomerJ
Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much did you pay to relocate laundry from basement to upstairs?
Replies: 23
Views: 2409

Re: How much did you pay to relocate laundry from basement to upstairs?

We're in the process of getting quotes. I realize what someone else paid 3 years ago in another region of the country isn't a great comparison, but it just got me thinking. Curious where you're located, what you paid to relocate laundry (washer/dryer) from basement to main level (or second floor, i...
by HomerJ
Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What if your risk tolerance is lower than what's best for your portfolio?
Replies: 51
Views: 3664

Re: What if your risk tolerance is lower than what's best for your portfolio?

But here's the thing... At 50x expenses, the 2% dividends from stocks and the 3% dividends from bonds ALONE give you more than you spend each year. There's no reason to even look at your balances during a crash. HomerJ...thanks for your input. I'm at about 35x expenses; how would you say that chang...
by HomerJ
Fri Oct 19, 2018 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So...what’s Plan B [for your retirement security]?
Replies: 20
Views: 2220

Re: So...what’s Plan B [for your retirement security]?

Now, most Bogleheads won't want to get anywhere near this Plan B, but living mostly on SS (with some handouts) can be done in my LCOL area. A lot of lower income people don't get a lot of Social Security and the average is about $1,400. With a much better than average Social Security check of aroun...
by HomerJ
Fri Oct 19, 2018 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So...what’s Plan B [for your retirement security]?
Replies: 20
Views: 2220

Re: So...what’s Plan B [for your retirement security]?

What if you realize your plan is obviously failing? ...what’s Plan B? I have more than one. (Plan B1) If it happens early enough in my retirement, try to get some part-time work. (Plan B2) If that's not possible, reduce spending, which means 2 vacations a year instead of 4 (or 4 cheaper vacations)....
by HomerJ
Fri Oct 19, 2018 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?
Replies: 42
Views: 3570

Re: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?

You also have a rapidly growing debt which no one really wants to try and fix since it doesn't help them win at the ballot box. The easiest way to fix the debt (for politicians) is to inflate it away. But obviously, hyper-inflation would be bad. But a nice steady inflation will definitely help with...
by HomerJ
Fri Oct 19, 2018 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!
Replies: 99
Views: 9187

Re: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!

Because the Fed raised interest rates 0.25% on that day. In fact, including that day, the Fed has raised interest rates 0.25% SEVEN times in less than 2 years since that day. I agree that it hasn't been the bond slaughter many insinuated that it would be. However, not to pick nits, but the Fed does...
by HomerJ
Fri Oct 19, 2018 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!
Replies: 99
Views: 9187

Re: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!

With those kind of piddly gains, wouldn't it be better to put the bonds/fixed-income portion of your portfolio in a short-term FDIC-insured CD? For example, bankrate.com shows a 15-month CD at 2.75% APY. It seems like that would be the better route rather than speculating on a bond fund at this tim...
by HomerJ
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?
Replies: 42
Views: 3570

Re: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?

I do agree that inflation is something to worry about. It's the one thing I'm not fully prepared for, and the only thing I still somewhat worry about. I think a short-term bond fund, or a short-term CD ladder offers some protection again inflation, correct? We do buy $10,000 of i-bonds every year. A...
by HomerJ
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!
Replies: 99
Views: 9187

Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!

So I've seen plenty of people here and in the media warn about bond funds "crashing" when interest rates rise. Just because I was curious, I checked Total Bond Market Index Fund since 12/14/2016 to today. Why did I pick 12/14/2016? Because the Fed raised interest rates 0.25% on that day. In fact, in...
by HomerJ
Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What if your risk tolerance is lower than what's best for your portfolio?
Replies: 51
Views: 3664

Re: What if your risk tolerance is lower than what's best for your portfolio?

Hi, Bogleheads. My AA is 37/63 now, after this slight correction. I lost more than a year's expenses in one week. I just hate losing money, even if it's only paper losses, especially now that I'm semi-retired. (I've lived through bears and recessions and don't panic sell. But my mood goes south.) I...
by HomerJ
Thu Oct 18, 2018 12:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: High End Wrist Watches (Gone Crazy)
Replies: 248
Views: 28870

Re: High End Wrist Watches (Gone Crazy)

Seems like there are lot of cool technology watches out there in the $300-$1000 range now that actually DO stuff. I'm curious if people who love watches are more interested in moving towards Garmin or Apple or other watch manufacturers that make fitness/GPS/marine/airplane/etc watches. A guy I know ...
by HomerJ
Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 9571

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

My last comments to explain a few things Homer The problem is that you fail to recognize what I have pointed out repeatedly in many discussions over the years about even DFA funds, you cannot extrapolate from a prospectus because it is written by lawyers to preclude lawsuits and often includes many...
by HomerJ
Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What do you consider 'enough'?
Replies: 93
Views: 10060

Re: What do you consider 'enough'?

Gittes: How much are you worth? Cross: I've no idea. How much do you want? Gittes: I just want to know what you're worth. Over ten million? Cross: Oh my, yes! Gittes: Why are you doing it? How much better can you eat? What can you buy that you can't already afford? Cross: The future, Mr. Gittes - t...
by HomerJ
Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 9571

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

This is from the LENDX prospectus. I don't think I was completely off base. I could still be wrong, but I certainly don't think I was just making stuff up from thin air. Risk of Unsecured Loans. Many of the Fund’s investments are associated with loans that are unsecured obligations of borrowers. Thi...
by HomerJ
Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 9571

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

First, re consumer loans during 2008, which was highest UE in post Depression era, saw losses about double from defaults. So with leverage we estimate fund would have lost about 6-7% or so. Have to remember that even at 10% employment since these are prime only loans they are made to people who are...
by HomerJ
Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What do you consider 'enough'?
Replies: 93
Views: 10060

Re: What do you consider 'enough'?

Edit: misread the question. "Enough" is personal. I would suggest being careful not increase lifestyle creep too much. When you get a raise, save 50% of it, and spend the other 50%. If you get a $5,000 raise, increase your spending $200 a month (Hey that's a lot of fun money), and increase your savi...
by HomerJ
Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "MegaMillions and Powerball jackpots combined are now $1B" - Good investment?
Replies: 55
Views: 2735

Re: "MegaMillions and Powerball jackpots combined are now $1B" - Good investment?

Sportswhiz00 wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 5:18 pm
The amount of pleasure I derive from getting lost in a fantasy about winning is worth way more than $20 to me. I probably spend $50 a month on average on lottery tickets, most often after a bad day at work.
But you should get the exact same amount of fantasy dreaming with one ticket.
by HomerJ
Tue Oct 16, 2018 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "MegaMillions and Powerball jackpots combined are now $1B" - Good investment?
Replies: 55
Views: 2735

Re: "MegaMillions and Powerball jackpots combined are now $1B" - Good investment?

I do't think jackpots are an investment. But $20 for entertainment once in awhile doesn't seem alike a problem to me. The entertainment comes from dreaming how you'd allocate all that money.* You only need one ticket for that. *It would be totally fun to set up a charitable foundation and make givi...
by HomerJ
Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement
Replies: 117
Views: 13921

Re: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement

MnD wrote:
Sat Sep 29, 2018 6:34 pm
Working more years, saving more, spending less to overcompensate beyond the worst series in history is not anything resembling a win-win in my book. More like locking in a horribly bad sequence of returns retirement plan from Day 1 of retirement before you even experience one.
And this.
by HomerJ
Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement
Replies: 117
Views: 13921

Re: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement

When looking at the various models the results are often stated in the odds of success, failure or even broke like this model. For most people "failure" would mean something like having to reduce their spending by 20% when they are in their 70 which might not be fun but would usually be a long way ...
by HomerJ
Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement
Replies: 117
Views: 13921

Re: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement

The "4% SWR is bleeding edge risky especially if you retire early" crowd isn't going to like this tool. Well I’m a proud, card-carrying member of that crowd and I think the tool itself probably works well and is gorgeous. The problem is the dataset used by the tool to make important life decisions:...
by HomerJ
Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ally Banking 1% extra back up to $1,000 on new money deposited
Replies: 278
Views: 21642

Re: Ally Banking 1% extra back up to $1,000 on new money deposited

What's the risk here?

I can't figure out why Ally is just throwing away money. 1/15/19 seems like an awfully short amount of time.

If Ally goes bankrupt, we're covered by FDIC, correct?
by HomerJ
Mon Oct 15, 2018 9:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: trip to Grand Cayman & dieting [while on vacation]
Replies: 40
Views: 2654

Re: trip to Grand Cayman & dieting

My best advice is to use the good weather and pleasant surroundings to up your activity level, rather than worrying too much about your food consumption. We go on cruises fairly often, and that works for me. For instance, we always go for a mile walk on the Promenade Deck after dinner. Good advice....
by HomerJ
Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Muscular Portfolios Questions
Replies: 9
Views: 1055

Re: Muscular Portfolios Questions

Good Evening: I am new to Bogleheads.org. I recently purchased Brian Livingston's book titled "Muscular Portfolios." I find Brian's Muscular Portfolio investing approach very interesting; however, I have two questions regarding his approach: (1) Is the Muscular Portfolio investing approach appropri...
by HomerJ
Mon Oct 15, 2018 4:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: trip to Grand Cayman & dieting [while on vacation]
Replies: 40
Views: 2654

Re: trip to Grand Cayman & dieting

Cycle wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 4:47 pm
anyone else having liver and onions for dinner tonight? :sharebeer
You're not helping your case at all. :)
by HomerJ
Mon Oct 15, 2018 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 9571

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

I don’t know of any specific “test”. All those strategies have been present for a very long time. They’ve been done by banks and hedge funds. Just now open to the public. Certainly always worry that investable by public is a bad sign. It's certainly not a good sign. Once a strategy is released to t...
by HomerJ
Mon Oct 15, 2018 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Term Bond yield over 3%
Replies: 74
Views: 10266

Re: Short Term Bond yield over 3%

I know CD ladders can be unpopular here, but I am amazed at the current numbers. 3% for the 2 year through Fidelity! https://fixedincome.fidelity.com/ftgw/fi/FILanding#tbcds|treasury|cd-new-issue It seems that a CD-ladder would be better than a short-term bond fund. Shorter duration, same interest ...
by HomerJ
Mon Oct 15, 2018 11:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: trip to Grand Cayman & dieting [while on vacation]
Replies: 40
Views: 2654

Re: trip to Grand Cayman & dieting

Consult a Registered Dietitian, not a bunch of people on the internet who are interested in personal finance and investing. Seriously, would you consult a Registered Dietitian on how to allocate your 401k? We tell people not to consult "registered" financial advisers on this site as well :) There's...
by HomerJ
Mon Oct 15, 2018 11:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: trip to Grand Cayman & dieting [while on vacation]
Replies: 40
Views: 2654

Re: trip to Grand Cayman & dieting

daheld wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 7:44 am
Consult a Registered Dietitian, not a bunch of people on the internet who are interested in personal finance and investing.

Seriously, would you consult a Registered Dietitian on how to allocate your 401k?
We tell people not to consult "registered" financial advisers on this site as well :)
by HomerJ
Mon Oct 15, 2018 11:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: trip to Grand Cayman & dieting [while on vacation]
Replies: 40
Views: 2654

Re: trip to Grand Cayman & dieting

I have recently discovered the secret to weight loss.... for me. Eating slow. So, I eat what I want, but I take a bite, put down the fork, wait a minute or two, take another bite. 20 minutes later, I feel full, and I enjoyed the taste of good food for the entire 20 minutes. I've dieted before, but i...
by HomerJ
Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 214
Views: 17028

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

I have not run the scenario, so take this as hear say, but i recall reading somewhere that many of the failure cases for the ex-US is driven by countries that were reduced to rubble during the WW1 and/or WW2. I recall that discussion saying if you excluded those scenarios, the gap between US and ex...
by HomerJ
Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 214
Views: 17028

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

I have not run the scenario, so take this as hear say, but i recall reading somewhere that many of the failure cases for the ex-US is driven by countries that were reduced to rubble during the WW1 and/or WW2. I recall that discussion saying if you excluded those scenarios, the gap between US and ex...
by HomerJ
Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 9571

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

Evaluating where you currently are relative to your goals after this long bull market and cooling off the asset allocation is not market timing; it is rational assessment of your need to take risk and acting appropriately. This is true. As one gets closer to retirement, one probably should go more ...
by HomerJ
Sun Oct 14, 2018 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 214
Views: 17028

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

It seems as if people want a plan of withdrawal that is safe and is not subject to change and that it will last their entire retirement. What I would call set it and forget it. If only there were a financial product people could buy using a fixed amount of money up front that would provide a guaran...
by HomerJ
Sun Oct 14, 2018 12:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who worries about a bear market in stocks?
Replies: 71
Views: 5670

Re: Who worries about a bear market in stocks?

Carol88888 wrote:
Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:24 pm
Stocks far outperform bonds in each 20 year period. I think I've got 20 years or more (I hope) so it seems rational for me to be all in stocks.
Stocks out performed in the past. It's quite probable they will in the future. But it's not guaranteed. You act like stocks are risk-free.
by HomerJ
Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who worries about a bear market in stocks?
Replies: 71
Views: 5670

Re: Who worries about a bear market in stocks?

Sorry for those who haven't heard Bill Bernstein's advice "If you've won the game, then stop playing." Translated: if you've saved enough to support a reasonable lifestyle, then get out of stocks and eliminate that risk. In my opinion, the goal of saving and investing is to get to the point where y...
by HomerJ
Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who worries about a bear market in stocks?
Replies: 71
Views: 5670

Re: Who worries about a bear market in stocks?

In my view, those who have accumulated enough savings to retire comfortably should follow William Bernstein's advice to get out of stocks. Stocks can be counted on only as a long term investment asset. You should be prepared to hold for 15-20 years without liquidating before you should be willing t...
by HomerJ
Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who worries about a bear market in stocks?
Replies: 71
Views: 5670

Re: Who worries about a bear market in stocks?

There are three groups of stock investors: 1) Young investors with a long time horizon until retirement. They don't have to worry about a bear market because they should have a large allocation to stocks and a bear market gives them the opportunity to buy more shares at lower prices. 2) Older inves...
by HomerJ
Sat Oct 13, 2018 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 214
Views: 17028

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

5% of a 100% stocks portfolio will last forever, and the average annual $ withdrawal will keep up with inflation, together of course with the annual portfolio balance keeping up with inflation, forever. This is incorrect. During the Great Depression you have gone bankrupt. I.e you can hand over a p...
by HomerJ
Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will you backup the truck on stocks
Replies: 95
Views: 8284

Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

I recently retired at a 55/45 allocation. My IPS calls for +/-5% rebalancing bands and to rebalance to 60/40 by the time I'm eligible for SS, but I have been considering adding a back up the truck rule. I like the idea of increasing my equity exposure if Schiller CAPE goes below 20. I will have to ...
by HomerJ
Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will you backup the truck on stocks
Replies: 95
Views: 8284

Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

I am not fragile financially, but I considered it an act of resolve to not sell back then and to keep my DCA investing going. No way was I going to go "all in." Kudos to those that can do that, but it's one thing to say it, and another to do it when you're surrounded by people being laid off, you'r...
by HomerJ
Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will you backup the truck on stocks
Replies: 95
Views: 8284

Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

I glanced at the threads and there were many people who were holding tight, others who were just continuing to do what they had always done, DCA into their retirement plans, but I don't see too many people who were optimistic about the future. I was 66/33 stocks/bonds in 2008. I rebalanced into sto...