Search found 11106 matches

by HomerJ
Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why age is not how to determine risk tolerance
Replies: 13
Views: 1194

Re: Why age is not how to determine risk tolerance

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:03 pm
I agree with the title of the thread. Your need, willingness, and ability to take risk are far more important.
Need, willingness, and ability to take risk IN GENERAL correlate with one's age (years to retirement might be a better metric).

It's just a general rule.
by HomerJ
Tue Jul 17, 2018 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tell me what's wrong with my strategy
Replies: 71
Views: 4586

Re: Tell me what's wrong with my strategy

By what measure Amazon is extremely expensive? It's Price to Earnings ratio is 232 Everyone expects Amazon to make a lot more profit in the future, and that's ALREADY baked into the price. (Side note - People talk about how the "stock market" is overvalued, but take away Amazon, and the PE ratio fo...
by HomerJ
Tue Jul 17, 2018 9:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who has owned a ski boat or waverunner & did you regret it?
Replies: 28
Views: 17238

Re: Who has owned a ski boat or waverunner & did you regret it?

We own a tri-toon 26' boat and a waverunner. We can tube people from either. Take a sunset cruise every night we're at the lake. If it's just the wife and I, we take the waverunner (it's a 3-seater, so easily fits 2 people). If we have more family down, we take the boat out. We have them on a lift i...
by HomerJ
Mon Jul 16, 2018 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tell me what's wrong with my strategy
Replies: 71
Views: 4586

Re: Tell me what's wrong with my strategy

Currently, with less to do, I am eager to get my hard earned cash working for me in a more productive way and, as a result, I've become eager to learn my way around index funds, mutuals, etfs, bonds and individual stocks. Sorry to disappoint you, but it's pretty boring and easy stuff. This isn't a ...
by HomerJ
Mon Jul 16, 2018 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tell me what's wrong with my strategy
Replies: 71
Views: 4586

Re: Tell me what's wrong with my strategy

Returnturn wrote:
Fri Jul 13, 2018 1:40 pm
You’re essentially gambling on the stocks that happen to be the most popular, while they’re at their most expensive prices.
This.

Picking the 5 stocks that have gone up the most in the past year or two is not a good strategy.
by HomerJ
Mon Jul 16, 2018 4:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Alaska Trip/Cruise Summer of 2020. Help me plan
Replies: 19
Views: 1251

Re: Alaska Trip/Cruise Summer of 2020. Help me plan

Alaska Rail packages are a good alternative to cruises -- it's a ground package that avoid the cruise experience of being herded into massive ships. I was happy with a one-week Alaska Rail package that we used a year ago; I can recommend buying the first class (gold star) version. You travel slowly...
by HomerJ
Mon Jul 16, 2018 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation
Replies: 103
Views: 5609

Re: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation

The payout ratio for a SPIA with an inflation-adjustment for a 65 year old couple is roughly 4% these days, which is close to the '4% rule of thumb'. Actually, it's about 5.6% for a 65-year old couple. So one could put 50% of their money in a SPIA, and use a 5% withdrawal on the other 50% (assuming...
by HomerJ
Mon Jul 16, 2018 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation
Replies: 103
Views: 5609

Re: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation

dknightd wrote:
Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:01 am
Right now SPIA are paying more than bonds. YMMV
What does that mean? Do you not understand the difference between the two? Or am I missing something?
by HomerJ
Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why own a bed?
Replies: 137
Views: 8354

Re: Why own a bed?

Caduceus wrote:
Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:41 am
Why not just sleep on a mattress on the floor
You had a floor? We used to dream of having a floor! We slept standing up in corner on a thin piece of plywood that was balanced over a 50 foot hole in the ground!
by HomerJ
Sun Jul 15, 2018 9:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FireCalc: How big a grain of salt?
Replies: 58
Views: 4327

Re: FireCalc: How big a grain of salt?

I periodically run Firecalc, which I did this morning, and here are the results with what I consider a pretty aggressive level of spending. My question is how big a grain of salt do I take these with? FWIW, the results were pretty much inline with my own spreadsheets, so I feel good about that. But...
by HomerJ
Sun Jul 15, 2018 9:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bears!!!
Replies: 59
Views: 4498

Re: Bears!!!

^I was a guest at my friends house out west last week. They generate even less garbage than we do and put the small amount of daily stuff in smalled sealed plastic bags before putting into kitchen garbage can. No ants, no flies, no smells. Sure, it requires a change in mind set, but just like backp...
by HomerJ
Sun Jul 15, 2018 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Strategy to buy a north los altos house (SF Bay Area)?
Replies: 18
Views: 1787

Re: Strategy to buy a north los altos house (SF Bay Area)?

Whats wrong with your $1.3 million house?

For fun and maybe a jolt of perspective, say this phrase out loud... "My $1.3 million house is not good enough."

Can you imagine you would have said that ten years ago?
by HomerJ
Fri Jul 13, 2018 2:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you trade experiences in your youth for early retirement
Replies: 81
Views: 5113

Re: Would you trade experiences in your youth for early retirement

The best experiences in my youth were free. I think just being young makes those experiences pretty good. People who had money to spend in their 20s had a good time, but.so did those of us who didn't have much money. I have plenty of good memories from my 20s even though i was broke most of the tim...
by HomerJ
Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you trade experiences in your youth for early retirement
Replies: 81
Views: 5113

Re: Would you trade experiences in your youth for early retirement

The short answer is no; while we are still hitting the goals that will allow us to retire at 55, we're not going to ratchet our lifestyle down to retire at some sooner date that might not even come. Brief example; when I was 26 I bought a 2008 M3 which I owed for 4 years. The payments, and the car ...
by HomerJ
Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios
Replies: 71
Views: 5943

Re: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios

Homer J, I’m not expecting anywhere near the accuracy &/or precision you describe. Then I don't understand how you can "tune" your portfolio to be super efficient using factors. Larry has said many times that one can lower their equity exposure, if they use factors to give themselves higher expecte...
by HomerJ
Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios
Replies: 71
Views: 5943

Re: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios

Less of the more expensive factor fund is required to achieve desired tilt Then you are depending WAY too much on the factor fund returning exactly what you THINK it will. You and Larry make this way too hard. You calculate some expected return based on past results from some factor, then you put 1...
by HomerJ
Thu Jul 12, 2018 5:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios
Replies: 71
Views: 5943

Re: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios

Less of the more expensive factor fund is required to achieve desired tilt Then you are depending WAY too much on the factor fund returning exactly what you THINK it will. You and Larry make this way too hard. You calculate some expected return based on past results from some factor, then you put a...
by HomerJ
Thu Jul 12, 2018 1:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Planning ahead: Best way to buy $1M New Home?
Replies: 10
Views: 1385

Re: Planning ahead: Best way to buy $1M New Home?

Best way to buy $1M New Home?
First, get a million dollars.
by HomerJ
Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Home equity loan for a business quandary
Replies: 30
Views: 1169

Re: Home equity loan for a business quandary

I definitely wouldn't buy the house now (why let the brother off the hook for the on-going payments?) But be prepared to pay off the loan in the future, by PURCHASING THE HOUSE. If you own it, then you don't have to worry about your mother changing her will, or getting another loan. Let her live the...
by HomerJ
Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Whole Life - We're doing it. What to look for?
Replies: 128
Views: 7482

Re: Whole Life - We're doing it. What to look for?

1- Insurance is a tax for being poor. That's not a fair statement. Many people maintain insurance for the security and peace of mind it provides, regardless of financial status. For example, even though I have no need for comprehensive coverage of my vehicles, I still pay for it as it provides peac...
by HomerJ
Wed Jul 11, 2018 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing - A fool's game?
Replies: 28
Views: 2141

Re: Market Timing - A fool's game?

this is killing me as well. when my 1st daughter turned 1, she received a decent amount money from family. we put that money into a 529 plan for her and its been doing decent(deposit made in 2015 + a few smaller deposits each year as she receives bday/xmas/etc). my 2nd daughter just turned 1 and re...
by HomerJ
Wed Jul 11, 2018 10:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Whole Life - We're doing it. What to look for?
Replies: 128
Views: 7482

Re: Whole Life - We're doing it. What to look for?

Only if he actually needs the insurance. SwampDonkey, you still haven't answered the question why $350k of life insurance gives you peace of mind, but $250k of life insurance does not. You're ALREADY insured for the next 25 years. The WL would be partial conversion of the current term policy (not a...
by HomerJ
Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Whole Life - We're doing it. What to look for?
Replies: 128
Views: 7482

Re: Whole Life - We're doing it. What to look for?

SwampDonkey wrote:
Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:15 am
Based upon the $100k illustration, if SO passes at age 80, the cash value is $67k (not paid out) but the total death benefit is $157k (paid out).
Do not look at the non-guaranteed columns when making a decision.

The guaranteed numbers are the only ones you should be looking at.
by HomerJ
Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Whole Life - We're doing it. What to look for?
Replies: 128
Views: 7482

Re: Whole Life - We're doing it. What to look for?

Agreed. This is a very good policy. Over the last few months I was looking at policies for a friend and they were exactly like you described. Zero cash value for 5 years and not much addition through year ten. I would see rates of return between 2.5% and 4.0%. Really dismal returns. As to after yea...
by HomerJ
Tue Jul 10, 2018 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing - A fool's game?
Replies: 28
Views: 2141

Re: Market Timing - A fool's game?

It's very much 'biased' toward being long on equities. It's simple: unless both the U.S. unemployment rate is above its 12 month moving average and stocks are trading below their 7 month moving average, I remain in equities. As long as both of these criteria are met, I will be in 'safe' assets, lik...
by HomerJ
Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing - A fool's game?
Replies: 28
Views: 2141

Re: Market Timing - A fool's game?

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:12 pm
The other type is objective, rules-based market timing,
"Objective" and "rules-based" sure makes it sound smart! :)
by HomerJ
Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What’s the median income of Bogleheads?
Replies: 29
Views: 3188

Re: What’s the median income of Bogleheads?

I wear my “In dog years...I’m dead” shirt :wink: (as noted, age/progression from education and training, location, single vs coupled, and a host of other factors make comparisons difficult if not useless) I saw an old grizzled guy in Key West wearing a T-shirt that said, "In dog years... I'm still ...
by HomerJ
Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Whole Life - We're doing it. What to look for?
Replies: 128
Views: 7482

Re: Whole Life - We're doing it. What to look for?

As to after year 20, you would really need to subtract out a annual term premium from the difference for a 55 year old. The real return would be higher than 3.5%. Probably closer to 4.5-5.0%. Good point, I'm just ignoring the insurance part of all this, and looking at the direct cash value returns....
by HomerJ
Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Whole Life - We're doing it. What to look for?
Replies: 128
Views: 7482

Re: Whole Life - We're doing it. What to look for?

A term policy of 20 years for a 35 year old standard risk 100k would be about $175 per year. Your whole life is almost $1000 per year. https://www.quickquote.com/term-life-insurance-quotes It's Impossible to say if your quote us good because we dont know the cash value at 20 years or any other poin...
by HomerJ
Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Whole Life - We're doing it. What to look for?
Replies: 128
Views: 7482

Re: Whole Life - We're doing it. What to look for?

I am confident a small to moderate sized insurance policy would have alleviated a lot of those unneeded concerns. You HAVE a small to moderate sized insurance policy. You should pat yourself on the back for buying that term policy 5 years ago. I don't understand what problem you are trying to solve...
by HomerJ
Mon Jul 09, 2018 12:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Whole Life - We're doing it. What to look for?
Replies: 128
Views: 7482

Re: Whole Life - We're doing it. What to look for?

Do not believe all the negativity you might hear/read. Similar to annuities whole life can be great in the right circumstance. Some people just hear the words and have to say something negative. What exactly are you talking about here? This thread doesn't appear to be full of thoughtless negative c...
by HomerJ
Mon Jul 09, 2018 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone use Gate 1 Travel?
Replies: 15
Views: 1447

Re: Anyone use Gate 1 Travel?

My wife and her sister and her father went to China with Gate 1 last year.

They thought Gate 1 was very good, and we're looking at using them again for a Peru trip.
by HomerJ
Mon Jul 09, 2018 10:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Whole Life - We're doing it. What to look for?
Replies: 128
Views: 7482

Re: Whole Life - We're doing it. What to look for?

soccerrules wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 10:11 am
I would look into buying more term as an option as well.
They probably can't buy MORE term because of the pre-existing condition now.
by HomerJ
Mon Jul 09, 2018 10:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Whole Life - We're doing it. What to look for?
Replies: 128
Views: 7482

Re: Whole Life - We're doing it. What to look for?

Background 1: SO is mid-30's and nearing the 5-year point on a 30-year term policy with Navy Mutual. Having the "comfort" of a known-immediate lump-sum income would have been worth it's weight in gold for the widow and her children. Bottom Line - After seeing how the situation played out in our fam...
by HomerJ
Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I take a $60k paycut to work 4days/week
Replies: 58
Views: 5187

Re: Should I take a $60k paycut to work 4days/week

Is it worth taking a $60k paycut to work 1 less day per week? I am 34 years old and have only been working about 3-4 years. I have a 2 year old and expecting another soon. Is it worth the huge loss in income to spend more time with family? About a year ago I took >100k paycut to work less than 55-6...
by HomerJ
Sun Jul 08, 2018 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 18037

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

US stocks are highly valued and, as such, expected future returns are lower. Unless we’ve entered a magic new era and that’s no longer true...I don’t think we have. Really? Stocks have been highly valued since 1990. That's 28 years, and returns have not been substantially lower. Seems like we've be...
by HomerJ
Sat Jul 07, 2018 9:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you take a job in a less desirable city if you had to work fewer days?
Replies: 40
Views: 2895

Re: Would you take a job in a less desirable city if you had to work fewer days?

I think you are being a little dramatic. It’s a city of 400k and you are worried there will be nothing to do? As in 400k people have not bothered to open restaurants, have festivals, farmers market, a children’s museum, and/or trails to name a few. Maybe the climate is not to your liking but there ...
by HomerJ
Sat Jul 07, 2018 12:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to "retire" in your 30's article
Replies: 110
Views: 14503

Re: How to "retire" in your 30's article

The main point is that they saved up enough to be financially independent and can do whatever the heck they want to. His wife chose to work and he chose to stay at home. I think the point we're making is "how do we know they saved up enough to be financially independent?" The fact that the wife is ...
by HomerJ
Sat Jul 07, 2018 1:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to "retire" in your 30's article
Replies: 110
Views: 14503

Re: How to "retire" in your 30's article

The cynical commentators just don't go away, do they. Always with finding fault with something. Part of the problem, I think, is the conflation of the terms "retirement" and "financial independence." Many of those in the FIRE community are certainly financial independent, but they choose to keep wo...
by HomerJ
Sat Jul 07, 2018 1:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to "retire" in your 30's article
Replies: 110
Views: 14503

Re: How to "retire" in your 30's article

There is a lack of appreciation how "retirement" and "financial independence" are self-concept-derived terms. I would never call myself "unemployed" or "under-employed," but I do vary between considering myself "retired" or "semi-retired." Which term I use depends on how I feel on a given day. Clea...
by HomerJ
Sat Jul 07, 2018 12:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to "retire" in your 30's article
Replies: 110
Views: 14503

Re: How to "retire" in your 30's article

But to the point, while most on BH are wonderful resources, like society in general, there are some on this board who (perhaps out of envy or boredom) like to bash and skeptically parse people who they perceive have more money than themselves. Heh, really? Read the article again. It's TERRIBLE. All...
by HomerJ
Sat Jul 07, 2018 12:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison
Replies: 66
Views: 5536

Re: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison

A poll that Mebane Faber did not long ago asked investors what the maximum drawdown of bonds in real terms for U.S. investors over the last 100 years was. Nearly all of them dramatically underestimated it. You've correctly pointed out that it was approximately 40% over a five year period. Those 'sa...
by HomerJ
Sat Jul 07, 2018 12:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do normal people afford the Bay Area?
Replies: 48
Views: 5023

Re: How do normal people afford the Bay Area?

I have no real knowledge of Bay area real estate. I do find it curious that when people come on this board worried about investing in the stock market at such high valuations, the resounding response seems to be that you can't time the market, it only seems like a top now, it can still go a lot hig...
by HomerJ
Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do normal people afford the Bay Area?
Replies: 48
Views: 5023

Re: How do normal people afford the Bay Area?

Salaries are very high in that area. That couple could get cheaper housing in Iowa, but they would be earning half as much for the same job. Yep, salaries half as much, housing is FIVE times cheaper. It makes sense to move to San Fran for the weather, and a tech job with a chance to get really rich...
by HomerJ
Thu Jul 05, 2018 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+
Replies: 189
Views: 11026

Re: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+

If I were 19 years away from FRA I wouldn't even be thinking of SS right now because so much can change in the interim. In fact, I completely ignored future SS income until I was 60. I'm planning on retiring between 50 and 55 and completely ignore SS in all of my personal planning.* The period betw...
by HomerJ
Thu Jul 05, 2018 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+
Replies: 189
Views: 11026

Re: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+

If I were 19 years away from FRA I wouldn't even be thinking of SS right now because so much can change in the interim. In fact, I completely ignored future SS income until I was 60. While this may have resulted in more aggressive saving, that's not such a bad thing. Having saved diligently provide...
by HomerJ
Thu Jul 05, 2018 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+
Replies: 189
Views: 11026

Re: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+

This bird in the hand attitude is a viable choice, but so is the more conservative and guaranteed increase in benefits that comes as a reward for patience. How is it "guaranteed"? Social Security website currently tells me they will have to reduce benefits to 75% in 2035... True. But 75% of age 70 ...
by HomerJ
Thu Jul 05, 2018 5:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 1326
Views: 103778

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

This means the usual behavior of always refilling a gas tank to full is not necessary even for long trips, and instead using the Supercharger just enough to get to the destination can be sufficient, so one doesn't need to always compare the time to completely refill a gas tank vs time to completely...
by HomerJ
Thu Jul 05, 2018 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+
Replies: 189
Views: 11026

Re: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+

This bird in the hand attitude is a viable choice, but so is the more conservative and guaranteed increase in benefits that comes as a reward for patience. How is it "guaranteed"? Social Security website currently tells me they will have to reduce benefits to 75% in 2035... True. But 75% of age 70 ...
by HomerJ
Thu Jul 05, 2018 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+
Replies: 189
Views: 11026

Re: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+

This bird in the hand attitude is a viable choice, but so is the more conservative and guaranteed increase in benefits that comes as a reward for patience. How is it "guaranteed"? Social Security website currently tells me they will have to reduce benefits to 75% in 2035. https://www.ssa.gov/policy...