Search found 20997 matches

by HomerJ
Thu Mar 28, 2024 10:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: how much do you think you need to retire?
Replies: 303
Views: 63425

Re: how much do you think you need to retire?

Ten years into retirement, and while I wasn't looking the cost of a comfortable urban lifestyle got away from me. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/27/how-much-money-family-of-4-needs-to-live-comfortably-in-us-cities.html What's needed in the cheapest of the 99 cities, Houston, is $175,219. Thanks to a favorable stock market, I've kept up with inflation (can't count on that going forward), but that's by no means the same as keeping up with GDP per capita, with the general standard of living, with real wages. Note that: “Comfortable” is defined as the income needed to cover a 50/30/20 budget for a family of two adults and two kids. This budget assumes that 50% of the monthly income can pay for necessities like housing and utility costs, 30% can ...
by HomerJ
Wed Mar 27, 2024 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5351
Views: 906854

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

As for alternative explanations, if I missed an Argument for 100% US that wasn’t already true before the massive divergence beginning after 2008, please state it again and I will add it to our list. At no time have I been making an Argument for 100% US. I've only been offering alternatives to your theory that QE is main cause of US out-performance THIS time (US has out-performed in the past for periods of time as well without QE, so we know other variables can have the same result) Again, I'm not saying you're wrong. You may be right. I'm saying we don't know. So QE may indeed have been the main cause this time, or maybe a dozen (or hundred) other variables changed as well, like other times. You made a market-timing move to Global Cap base...
by HomerJ
Wed Mar 27, 2024 12:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: how much do you think you need to retire?
Replies: 303
Views: 63425

Re: how much do you think you need to retire?

gunny2 wrote: Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:56 pm
txgolfer_19 wrote: Wed Dec 20, 2023 8:21 pm Somewhere between $10 and $15 million in current dollars in ~20 years which would be in my late 50s.
That's all, really? I guess you plan on eating bologna sandwiches a lot on that paltry income.

8-)
I'm guessing golf in Texas is REALLY expensive? Or he likes to drink champagne on every hole?
by HomerJ
Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5351
Views: 906854

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

In the absence of alternative explanations to what is different from before and after 2008, it does seem reasonable to assume the obvious answer is the correct answer. (1) It's a HUGE mistake, it's your biggest mistake you've made before (on these very boards), and it's a mistake you continue to make, thinking that anything in economics is "obvious" or has ONE main root cause. You are completely oblivious to the complexity of world economics. You really think it's simple. (2) I have given you alternative explanations. Like 10 posts ago. I'm not saying they are right, but you choose to ignore them all, because that is how you work. You actually have said multiple times, on multiple topics, "No one has offered any alternative ...
by HomerJ
Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5351
Views: 906854

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

P.S. As explained, the "consensus" conversation you seem to be referencing was specifically about the mechanics of how every country implements policies specific to their unique dynamics surrounding levels of individual stock market participation and import/export postures. The details have been explained multiple times during the course of this thread, and I believe there is consensus on the "mechanics". Unfortunately we are unable to discuss further at this point, due to forum rules, which I do not understand, but will try to respect. We discussed "the mechanics of how every country implements policies specific to their unique dynamics surrounding levels of individual stock market participation and import/export ...
by HomerJ
Tue Mar 26, 2024 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5351
Views: 906854

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Appreciate the specific examples, but do any of these warrant a US tilt....? Nowhere did my post recommend a "US tilt" going forward. My only point is that you don't know if QE is the only or even main reason the US out-performed International over the past 15 years. You are really really sure that was the reason, and since QE has ended, it's "obvious" that International is due to out-perform. Yes, that's the way you post. I'm saying I have no idea which one will out-perform going forward. I agree with you that a Global market cap is not a bad place to be, since I don't know.. I myself am happy with 80/20, but that's just inertia, since I've "always" done it that way, and it's good enough for me. My only reaso...
by HomerJ
Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 20-30X income, is that the "retirement rut"?
Replies: 136
Views: 20989

Re: 20-30X income, is that the "retirement rut"?

I'm only at about 12-15x my income and I already feel like I'm in a rut. I'm not interested in working harder. I coast even when I have deadlines, knowing they won't replace me because that would be too difficult. Not willing to work extra hours. I procrastinate when allowable. I'm brutally honest about what I am willing to and not willing to do at work. Me working extra hard to get a 10% raise is not worth it when I'll still get a 4% raise without working hard. Especially when a 1% increase in my retirement portfolio is more than what that raise is worth. Sounds like you're banking on the fact that the company won't realize they're better off letting you go. We're about to replace someone who is behaving like this, and they have no idea. ...
by HomerJ
Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 20-30X income, is that the "retirement rut"?
Replies: 136
Views: 20989

Re: 20-30X income, is that the "retirement rut"?

dekecarver wrote: Sat Mar 23, 2024 5:01 pm 20x income is a helluva number to shoot for
Like others have pointed out, "income" is a terrible metric. "expenses" is the correct one.

Going by income, the more you make, the worse you are doing. Which is of course, silly.
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 25, 2024 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5351
Views: 906854

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Here's some examples of world events that may have impacted Non-US economies differently than they affected the US economy from 2008-2022 Greek/Europe debt crisis (took multiple years in the mid 2010s to resolve) Brexit (happened slowly from the first vote to the actual implementation 2016-2020) Migration of millions of people from the Middle-east and Africa to Europe throughout the decade (assimilation differences between US and non-US?) Pandemic (state-based, one country, different than a loose Union made up multiple nations? maybe?) Energy issues Demographic changes And since 2022, US is still beating International. How can that be without QE?* Ukraine war? (including more migrants) Even bigger energy issues for Europe? Inflation differe...
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 25, 2024 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5351
Views: 906854

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

CraigTester wrote: Mon Mar 25, 2024 4:31 pm So what else happened from 2008-2022 (that wasn't already true) to trigger this amazing period of US out-performance....?
Probably 300 things. There's thousands of variables.

How did the US out-perform in any other period when there wasn't QE?

(See what I mean by ignoring anything that doesn't confirm your view?)
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 25, 2024 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5351
Views: 906854

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

CraigTester wrote: Mon Mar 25, 2024 3:57 pm So here's a question.

Looking at the list of Arguments in the OP for 100% US'ers, what was true AFTER the recent US stock market performance, that wasn't already true ahead of time.....?
Probably 300 things. There's thousands of variables.

How did the US out-perform in any other period when there wasn't QE?

You still think it's possible to figure it all out. You've been really sure in the past, and it turned out you were mistaken. How long before you recognize it's not easy and it's never just one or two variables?

Very smart people spend their entire lives studying this stuff, and even they can't figure it all out.
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 25, 2024 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5351
Views: 906854

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

CraigTester... There is no consensus "up-thread". There is very little consensus anywhere in this thread. That's WHY THIS THREAD EXISTS (and is 100+ pages). It's all opinion. It's all guesswork. Economics is not a hard science, like physics. Shiller said this in 2014... Shiller expresses skepticism about the value of forecasting - particularly economic forecasting. He points out that in the past, attempts at forecasting were much more likely to be dismissed as mere opinion. 'One thing I've noticed about history, you can search on newspapers going back hundreds of years, search for "economic forecast", you don't find it. It would be very rare to find it,' he says. 'Why didn't newspapers publish economic forecasts? Well, ...
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 25, 2024 2:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Some reasons to help me avoid the US/exUS debate
Replies: 44
Views: 3224

Re: Some reasons to help me avoid the US/exUS debate

rushrocker wrote: Sun Mar 24, 2024 2:32 am You have to truly stop paying attention to the debate or you'll constantly find reasons to fret over any decision you make because there are very good arguments on both sides.
This is true. See my signature.
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 25, 2024 2:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Some reasons to help me avoid the US/exUS debate
Replies: 44
Views: 3224

Re: Some reasons to help me avoid the US/exUS debate

id0ntkn0wjack wrote: Sat Mar 23, 2024 3:48 pm Vanguard put out a paper at the end of 2023 forecasting that ex-US/Emerging is likely to out-perform US over the next decade due to interest rate headwinds.
They put out the same paper in 2014, and 2016, and 2018, etc.

Nobody knows.

I myself am 80/20 and have been 80/20 for years and years. It's good enough. I understand the reasoning for global cap, but 80/20 gives me enough diversification I think. Others would disagree, but I'm now sticking with 80/20 mostly via inertia. <shrug>

The world is pretty integrated these days in any case. Good enough is good enough.
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 25, 2024 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5351
Views: 906854

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

CraigTester... There is no consensus "up-thread". There is very little consensus anywhere in this thread. That's WHY THIS THREAD EXISTS (and is 100+ pages). It's all opinion. It's all guesswork. Economics is not a hard science, like physics. Shiller said this in 2014... Shiller expresses skepticism about the value of forecasting - particularly economic forecasting. He points out that in the past, attempts at forecasting were much more likely to be dismissed as mere opinion. 'One thing I've noticed about history, you can search on newspapers going back hundreds of years, search for "economic forecast", you don't find it. It would be very rare to find it,' he says. 'Why didn't newspapers publish economic forecasts? Well, I...
by HomerJ
Sun Mar 24, 2024 8:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is it Too Late to Invest in VTI?
Replies: 130
Views: 20982

Re: Is it Too Late to Invest in VTI?

Annuities may not be for everyone, but they are the only vehicle available to people today, with the demise of defined benefit pensions, with which to guarantee a stream of income for the remainder of their lives, and/or the lives of themselves and a second loved one. By the way, I'm all for SPIAs, where there is only one number involved. I agree with you that those kind of annuities have a place in some retirement plans. But that's not the same as the product you are describing. A single-premium, immediate annuity is easy to understand, with one calculation only. One gives the insurance company $100,000 (or whatever - single premium), and they pay you 7% ($7000) a year (or whatever, based on your age) for life starting immediately (immedi...
by HomerJ
Sun Mar 24, 2024 8:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is it Too Late to Invest in VTI?
Replies: 130
Views: 20982

Re: Is it Too Late to Invest in VTI?

I know what I bought, I know why I bought them, and I know that in addition to the strength of the carriers selected, and because of State Guaranty Funds, I will collect 100% of the contractual values guaranteed in my contracts...in spite of your opinion to the contrary. Of course you will collect 100% of the contractual values guaranteed in your contracts. But the end annuitized payout will likely be less than you could get on the open market. The second number matters. 8.25% alone is meaningless. And maybe you indeed, as a insurance agent, understand the difference, but most people sold a variable annuity are sold the 8.25% "guaranteed" rate like it is the main number that counts, like it should be compared to a CD rate. Becaus...
by HomerJ
Sat Mar 23, 2024 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5351
Views: 906854

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

CraigTester wrote: Sat Mar 23, 2024 1:47 pm My Question:

Would US stocks have out-performed this last cycle (and for as long) if not for QE1,2,3 & 4.
No idea... US stocks are still out-performing during the two times we've taken QE away and even went to QT, so it's hard to say.

But let's say the reason was indeed QE.

You realize you are admitting is that there are more variables involved than valuations, right?
by HomerJ
Fri Mar 22, 2024 5:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you assume legislative cuts in Social Security and other federal benefits?
Replies: 49
Views: 2125

Re: Do you assume legislative cuts in Social Security and other federal benefits?

I think it's silly to not plan for SS at all.

There will be some SS always.

But I guess if one is rich enough, sure completely ignore it.
by HomerJ
Fri Mar 22, 2024 5:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you assume legislative cuts in Social Security and other federal benefits?
Replies: 49
Views: 2125

Re: Do you assume legislative cuts in Social Security and other federal benefits?

KlangFool wrote: Fri Mar 22, 2024 5:03 pm A person has to be fully employed continuously until 62 years old before social security come into play.
The highlighted part is not true.
Many of my peers are permanently under-employed or under-employed in their 40s and 50s.
Perfectly reasonable to be making plans for retirement, including SS, in your 50s or late 40s.

I agree people in their 20s-30s, maybe early 40s, shouldn't worry about it right now... Just keep saving, and see what happens in 10 years.
by HomerJ
Fri Mar 22, 2024 5:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you assume legislative cuts in Social Security and other federal benefits?
Replies: 49
Views: 2125

Re: Do you assume legislative cuts in Social Security and other federal benefits?

jaMichael wrote: Fri Mar 22, 2024 2:51 pm I'm not sure what numbers to use for planning purposes. Open Social Security assumes a 23% cut in Social Security if no legislative changes are made to shore up the program. Would you use that number?
I assume a 25% cut in Social Security (easier math). Because that's the situation today. That's what the official website says.

We can't really talk about future possible legislation. I understand many people expect SS to be changed, because so many people would get hurt, but best to plan around the current situation, in my opinion.
by HomerJ
Fri Mar 22, 2024 5:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When one is ready to retire and pull out of the market.
Replies: 44
Views: 4881

Re: When one is ready to retire and pull out of the market.

You don't want to "get out of the market" completely, but it's certainly reasonable to go with a more conservative allocation as you get close to retirement. Anything from 70/30 to 30/70 seems reasonable. You'll want to duration match your bonds/cash side. Nothing wrong with a good chunk in money-markets right now as they are paying 4%-5%. I have: 5 years of expenses in money-markets 5 years of expenses in a 5-year TIP bond, which I'll use to replenish the money-market money after the first 5 years. And I have the rest in Total Bond Market Fund, which is an intermediate fund, and even though it went down recently, it's paying more interest, and slowly catching back up to even. So I have 10 years of expenses in very safe liquid inv...
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 21, 2024 11:16 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Courage to Invest in Equities
Replies: 57
Views: 4530

Re: Courage to Invest in Equities

madbrain wrote: Thu Mar 21, 2024 10:20 pm There is 1.25% of discretionary spending.
That helps a lot...

The market is up 10% so far this year... Maybe it's good idea to sell a year or two worth of expenses right now, and lock in those gains to cover a couple of years where you don't have to worry about what the stock market is doing.
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 21, 2024 9:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good Modern Science Fiction
Replies: 766
Views: 151005

Re: Good Modern Science Fiction

Lady Geek...

Have you read all the Orson Scott Card books? Everything he writes is good.

Try Ender's Game first... If you like that, there's like 10 more books in that universe, just as good... Especially the Bean ones (Ender's Shadow)

A standalone classic by Orson Scott Card is The Redemption of Christopher Columbus.

And a great trilogy is Pathfinder, Ruins, Visitors, where the protagonist discovers he can time-travel.
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 21, 2024 9:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good Modern Science Fiction
Replies: 766
Views: 151005

Re: Good Modern Science Fiction

Timothy Love wrote: Sun Oct 30, 2022 10:43 pm This is a great post, I've been quite interested in science fiction lately. Although someone recommended it before, the three-body trilogy, I personally prefer the second and third
I liked those books when I read them, but I don't seem interested in reading them again. So that seems to me a vote against them, because the really good books I read again.
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 21, 2024 9:41 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Courage to Invest in Equities
Replies: 57
Views: 4530

Re: Courage to Invest in Equities

Seriously, this doesn't make any sense to me. It's EASY to walk away from the casino table when you've doubled your money. It's harder when you're losing. We're winning. Why is it hard? I haven't been 95% stocks for that long, so I haven't doubled my money. I was too conservative with my investment decisions overall when I was younger especially. In recent years I went through multiple periods of unemployment, and didn't want to see my portfolio disappear at the same time as my income did, and thus reduced my equity exposure. These was obviously a mistake, but not one I could correct. Are you far away from retirement or close to retirement? Currently on short-term disability. Not sure if I'll ever work again. I am assuming that I won't. Th...
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 21, 2024 9:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Equiy Indexed Annuity using retirement money
Replies: 28
Views: 1905

Re: Equiy Indexed Annuity using retirement money

Stinky wrote: Thu Mar 21, 2024 9:01 pm
buddingdr wrote: Wed Mar 20, 2024 8:44 pm He seemed to suggest that he was just providing info about these options and that he does not get anything from these.
That is a bald-faced, screaming lie.

Please post back and let us know what you decided to do.
Yeah, he 100% gets paid. The fact that he said that means you should walk away. He's already lied right to your face.
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 21, 2024 7:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Equiy Indexed Annuity using retirement money
Replies: 28
Views: 1905

Re: Equiy Indexed Annuity using retirement money

Another way many of these insurance companies get you is their limit on gains is PER MONTH.

Like they say, 12% max per year... But it's really 1% per month.

So, this past month, we've made like 4%, but you will only get 1%, then next month, it will go down 2%, and you'll get 0% (which is good I guess), and then next month it will go up 3%, and you'll get 1%.

So normal investors will get 5% over 3 months, plus the dividends, and you'll only get 2%.

The market might go up 11% over 12 months, and your max is 12%, but you may end up only getting 4% based on how each month plays out.

The contract is 100% written to make the insurance company money, not you.
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 21, 2024 7:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is it Too Late to Invest in VTI?
Replies: 130
Views: 20982

Re: Is it Too Late to Invest in VTI?

arca wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:07 am Hey bogleheads.. Is it too late to invest in VTI? It's performed so well that it may have peaked and I feel it may fall if the market falls.
Market is up almost 5% since you posted this.

5% in 5 weeks. When we're all happy for 5%-10% a year.
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 21, 2024 7:35 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Courage to Invest in Equities
Replies: 57
Views: 4530

Re: Courage to Invest in Equities

rockstar wrote: Wed Mar 20, 2024 6:18 pm The Fed did raise their GDP predictions for this year. That caught me by surprise. I don’t think the consumer is doing all that great.
Have you been a shopping area or a restaurant area?

Everything is hopping.

We stand in line to eat on a freaking Tuesday night, and I say to my wife "Yeah, I think I know why the stock market is up"
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 21, 2024 7:33 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Courage to Invest in Equities
Replies: 57
Views: 4530

Re: Courage to Invest in Equities

We are not in an analogous position today. Absolutely. I didn't claim otherwise. My 95/5 current portfolio is reallly benefitting from the new highs. I need to find courage to sell some stocks and rebalance into cash/bonds. Why does that require courage? Cashing in gains is super easy. Seriously, this doesn't make any sense to me. It's EASY to walk away from the casino table when you've doubled your money. It's harder when you're losing. We're winning. Why is it hard? Are you far away from retirement or close to retirement? Are you thinking you NEED to stay 95/5 to hit your goals? After 15 years of good gains, I would think most of us are in solid shape, and don't need 95/5 anymore. Maybe you just started investing 4 years ago... That woul...
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 21, 2024 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5351
Views: 906854

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

As discussed earlier in this thread, it is curious how US out-performance does appear to correspond to the period encompassing the 4 rounds of QE from 2008 to early 2022. Except QE actually ended in October 2017, and for 2 years, the US Federal Reserve did QT (quantitative tightening), and STILL the US out-performed International. (10.5% to 2%, so not just a little) Then during Covid, QE started up again, but like you said, in 2022, we ended it, and STILL the US out-performed International since early 2022 to today. (8.5% to 4%) But maybe QE is also "spurious".... And rather than a cause of the separation, it could be a symptom...? (or even coincidental?) Yep... maybe a symptom, maybe a cause, maybe a coincidence. Nobody knows. T...
by HomerJ
Tue Mar 19, 2024 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5351
Views: 906854

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Charles Joseph wrote: Tue Mar 19, 2024 9:33 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Tue Mar 19, 2024 9:20 am ...those that allocate 100% US tend to do so for outperformance reasons.
Those who allocate to ex-US tend to do so for outperformance reasons...expected outperformance in the future based on past outperformance which they regularly advertise.
This. I mean, the main reason Nathan promotes International investing so strongly is because he believes it's likely to out-perform based on valuations.
by HomerJ
Tue Mar 19, 2024 9:12 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Courage to Invest in Equities
Replies: 57
Views: 4530

Re: Courage to Invest in Equities

3. The U.S. business cycle that Fidelity plots is at https://institutional.fidelity.com/app/item/RD_13569_40890/business-cycle-update.html They place the US at the end of the expansion phase. I'm not sure how an investor uses that to change investing pattern(s) or philosophy. If you deviate too much, then you're bailing on your philosophy. Are you ready to try something else? Just FYI, here is Fidelity's plot in Feb 2020, where they ALSO placed the US at the end of the "expansion phase" https://www.fidelity.com/webcontent/ap101883-markets_sectors-content/20.03.0/business_cycle/history/FINAL_February_2020_BCU.pdf Yet the SP500 was at 3300 in Feb 2020, before Covid showed up. And today it's at 5100, a gain of 55% over 4 years. So n...
by HomerJ
Tue Mar 19, 2024 8:53 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Courage to Invest in Equities
Replies: 57
Views: 4530

Re: Courage to Invest in Equities

Understand that the market could indeed drop 50% starting tomorrow, and take 5-10 years to recover. But in the long run, it's likely to still give you good returns. The 9%-10% long-term return INCLUDES all the crashes. Read that again. It's not 9%-10% during the good decades, it's much higher during the good years, so the 9%-10% a year, so far, shows up even when you include the bad years. So buying and holding, so far, still made one rich over the long run (15+ years) Pick an asset allocation that you can hold through the next stock market crash for 5-10 years, and then you can stop worrying about the next stock market crash because you'll already be ready for it. Because it WILL happen. It's not an "if", it's a "when",...
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 18, 2024 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5351
Views: 906854

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Mar 18, 2024 11:50 pm Japan isn't the only country that caused exUS outperformance; I already stated that from 1950 to 2018 the EU market alone had outperformed the US market. That's a very long to not receive a "US premium"
EU market did not consistently out-perform that entire period. It did better some decades and worse other decades. Your statement is deceiving. Don't do that. Again I can cherry-pick a period just as long and state, JUST AS ACCURATELY, that the US out-performed the EU for 68 years.

Both of our statements will be "technically" accurate, but both won't really be that useful as investing advice.

Let's stop doing that.
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 18, 2024 11:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Garmin Watches: do you wear it at night? if not, does it affect stats?
Replies: 33
Views: 2745

Re: Garmin Watches: do you wear it at night? if not, does it affect stats?

eric321 wrote: Sun Mar 17, 2024 7:26 pm If I have too much to drink, Garmin will see it in my sleep patterns.
Heh, this is true.

Don't ask me how I know.
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 18, 2024 11:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Garmin Watches: do you wear it at night? if not, does it affect stats?
Replies: 33
Views: 2745

Re: Garmin Watches: do you wear it at night? if not, does it affect stats?

FIRWYW wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2024 12:16 am Only had my garmin (fenix 7) for 4 months. I don’t think the sleep is very accurate after recent use. Have not worn it to bed until recently when traveling and would not bother spouse. Without wearing, body battery was 80-90 each morning. Travel for 3 days wearing it with much worse sleep then at home indicate 100 every time. I probably wake 5 times I am aware of each night so seems overly generous. (Who knows maybe I really do sleep that deep though in between)
If you click on it, it will show a more detailed report showing you exactly how much REM and deep sleep you got, and at what times of the night.
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 18, 2024 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alibaba & Tencent
Replies: 43
Views: 4100

Re: Alibaba & Tencent

Funny. Since this was posted, Alibaba now has a market cap of 184 billion. Quite a haircut! Must be a lesson in there somewhere, like don't bet on individual stocks! Funny you should post this. Alibaba is now the single largest holding in my portfolio. It's trading at a ridiculous valuation. It has $92 billion in cash/cash-equivalents, which amounts to half of its current market capitalization. If you subtract all of its debt, it has something in the ballpark of $65 billion in net cash. Now, considering it generates about $30B in free cash flow and two-thirds that in normalized net income, it's currently trading at 4x FCF and 6x earnings. But wait ... if you look at the balance sheet, you'll see that Alibaba owns a lot of investments beyon...
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 18, 2024 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5351
Views: 906854

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Since the recent post-GFC period is the last period of time we have, we cannot conclude that is does represent some persistent premium. Which was entirely my point. The evidence for a US premium, outside of war impact, is extremely weak; yet many bank everything they have into a 100% US approach believing there is. I'm not sure the people going 100% US are "banking everything" on a US "out-performing". I think they feel confident 100% US will do well over the long-run, and see no need to change allocations based on various metrics like valuations, trying to maximize their return. 100% US long-term, so far, has been good enough to get pretty rich. Changing allocations based on valuations might make one more rich, or mayb...
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 18, 2024 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5351
Views: 906854

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

The likelihood of outperformance is relegated to post world war outcomes. Don't know if you noticed, but we are no longer "post-war" in Europe. From 1950-2018, the EU had outperformed the US. Cherry-picked dates (although reasonable ones), but the EU didn't actually exist that entire time, and it wasn't easy to invest in whatever somebody today has synthesized as "1950 EU" and "1957 EU", etc. There’s no strong evidence supporting a persistent US premium. In fact, much of the gains in recent history since 1990 was because US was valued significantly less than exUS, and that situation inverted. Funny enough, the EU came into existence in 1993, right around the time you are talking about. Instead of a bunch of Eu...
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 18, 2024 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5351
Views: 906854

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

The likelihood of outperformance is relegated to post world war outcomes. Don't know if you noticed, but we are no longer "post-war" in Europe. From 1950-2018, the EU had outperformed the US. Cherry-picked dates (although reasonable ones), but the EU didn't actually exist that entire time, and it wasn't easy to invest in whatever somebody today has synthesized as "1950 EU" and "1957 EU", etc. There’s no strong evidence supporting a persistent US premium. In fact, much of the gains in recent history since 1990 was because US was valued significantly less than exUS, and that situation inverted. Funny enough, the EU came into existence in 1993, right around the time you are talking about. Instead of a bunch of Eu...
by HomerJ
Fri Mar 15, 2024 2:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "22 of the funniest novels since Catch-22" (acc. to the NYT)
Replies: 35
Views: 4059

Re: "22 of the funniest novels since Catch-22" (acc. to the NYT)

turtlebug wrote: Fri Mar 15, 2024 2:36 pm '"A Prayer for Owen Meany" by John Irving. IMO, a truly unforgettable story exploring the concepts of fate and predestination - beautifully and heartbreakingly crafted with moments of great wit and humor to soften the blows.
Yes, John Irving should definitely have a book or two on that list for humor.
by HomerJ
Fri Mar 15, 2024 1:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "22 of the funniest novels since Catch-22" (acc. to the NYT)
Replies: 35
Views: 4059

Re: "22 of the funniest novels since Catch-22" (acc. to the NYT)

People don't like Catch-22?

So many good quotes.

“The Texan turned out to be good-natured, generous and likable. In three days no one could stand him.”

“Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they aren't after you.”

“What would they do to me," he asked in confidential tones, "if I refused to fly them?"
"We'd probably shoot you," ex-P.F.C. Wintergreen replied.
"We?" Yossarian cried in surprise. "What do you mean, we? Since when are you on their side?"
"If you're going to be shot, whose side do you expect me to be on?" ex-P.F.C. Wintergreen retorted

“They’re not going to send a crazy man out to be killed, are they?”
“Who else will go?”
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 14, 2024 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5M, probably enough to retire to a frugal lifestyle
Replies: 180
Views: 15748

Re: 5M, probably enough to retire to a frugal lifestyle

Do you even know how much a 600 sf apartment rent for in coastal town in Socal ? Do you know that the world is bigger than the coastal town in Socal? It is a choice to live in that area. It is a luxury. KlangFool But you are comparing your standard of living from a low cost of living state to one of the highest cost of living states in America. It is a luxury to live in one of the highest cost of living area. Some folks choose it. KlangFool What was the purpose of living in a lower cost area in a smaller footprint home? Probably a much bigger, newer, nicer home. And next to a beautiful lake with a view from your deck. And a boat and a couple of jetskis. Or you could live in a much smaller older home in CA and complain about how you are for...
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 14, 2024 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5M, probably enough to retire to a frugal lifestyle
Replies: 180
Views: 15748

Re: 5M, probably enough to retire to a frugal lifestyle

goodenyou wrote: Thu Mar 14, 2024 2:20 pm Gilligan's Island today would have to cast a "Billionaire and his Wife" to have the same impact it did 50 years ago.
I saw a TV show where this short ugly fat guy had a beautiful girlfriend, and someone asked him, "What, are you some kind of millionaire or something?"

And the guy laughed, and said "Oh, no, no, no.... I made my first billion by 25"
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 14, 2024 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Holding 100% stocks after FI best option for longer time horizons?
Replies: 88
Views: 10580

Re: Holding 100% stocks after FI best option for longer time horizons?

Haven't read all the replies but FWIW, my Firecalc success rate is always highest if I set it to 100% stocks. That's not always true. What are your inputs? All chances of success go down the longer the period, but it's true that more stocks did seem to help for longer periods than 30 years. But 30 years, it was not the best solution. Just don't expect 4% withdrawals to work for longer periods (10%-20% failure rates is probably not good enough). But remember we don't have a lot of data here. This is all in the past. Not that many 30-year periods to look at really, and even fewer 50-year periods to look at. 30 year retirement: 4% withdrawals, using 5-year treasury bonds, 0.04 expense ratio 100% stock - 94.3% success (6 cycles failed out of 1...
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 14, 2024 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Holding 100% stocks after FI best option for longer time horizons?
Replies: 88
Views: 10580

Re: Holding 100% stocks after FI best option for longer time horizons?

Haven't read all the replies but FWIW, my Firecalc success rate is always highest if I set it to 100% stocks. That's not always true. What are your inputs? All chances of success go down the longer the period, but it's true that more stocks did seem to help for longer periods than 30 years. But 30 years, it was not the best solution. Just don't expect 4% withdrawals to work for longer periods (10%-20% failure rates is probably not good enough). But remember we don't have a lot of data here. This is all in the past. Not that many 30-year periods to look at really, and even fewer 50-year periods to look at. 30 year retirement: 4% withdrawals, using 5-year treasury bonds, 0.04 expense ratio 100% stock - 94.3% success (6 cycles failed out of 1...
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 14, 2024 9:45 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who's up for pickleball? Zero-zero-two. Game On!
Replies: 377
Views: 90102

Re: Who's up for pickleball? Zero-zero-two. Game On!

I would say Yes. Here are the official ratings: Definitions of Player Skill Ratings - USA Pickleball It's not just physical ability, but understanding strategy and tactics. You need to play for a while to get accustomed to what those descriptions mean. Interesting... Those descriptions are way off compared to the skill level at my club. All the 3.0s at my place appear to be 3.5s or even 4.0s based on that (we all can mostly control depth of return, and have a drop shot, and are decent at dinking, and you definitely don't want to pop it up too high and give any of us an overhand slam opportunity) Very weird that those descriptions act like it's hard to return a serve. Like 3.0s aren't even consistent at hitting the very first return. (???)
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 14, 2024 9:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who's up for pickleball? Zero-zero-two. Game On!
Replies: 377
Views: 90102

Re: Who's up for pickleball? Zero-zero-two. Game On!

Chardo wrote: Wed Mar 13, 2024 7:32 pm I have joined the cult, er, club. Beginner clinic 9am, open play 6pm, booking more court time 8pm. From the descriptions online, I think I'm a 3.0, maybe 3.5, after one day. Am I overestimating?
Heh, yes probably.

Unless you're a retired professional tennis or ping-pong player.

A good athlete can hold their own maybe with the 3.0, right off the bat, but there's no way you have the feel yet for all the different shots.

I see tennis players do pretty well right off the bat, but dinking at the net or a well-placed lob can counteract their strong tennis swings.

But sounds like it won't take you long to master the sport! :sharebeer