Search found 10518 matches

by HomerJ
Sat Feb 17, 2018 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 124
Views: 6534

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

WanderingDoc wrote:
Sat Feb 17, 2018 2:15 am
I know that my real estate investments will outperform equities all day every day even on its worst year
Ah, I remember being young once.
by HomerJ
Fri Feb 16, 2018 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 124
Views: 6534

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

Does anyone think that stock buybacks might be part of all this? I see a lot of theories talking about EPS growth, plus dividends to come up with a prediction for returns. But dividends are lower these days than in the past, so the predictions are lower. But the EPS growth might be higher than in th...
by HomerJ
Fri Feb 16, 2018 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Not to Get Rich - Mark Twain
Replies: 17
Views: 3370

Re: How Not to Get Rich - Mark Twain

This quote from a review of the book reminds me of the WallStreetbets forum on Reddit: Both he and his characters run on a picaresque impulse: try something crazy, fail at it, laugh about it, move along https://www.newyorker.com/books/page-turner/how-mark-twain-tried-to-get-rich-quick-again-and-aga...
by HomerJ
Fri Feb 16, 2018 11:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Number at which to stop worrying
Replies: 170
Views: 16450

Re: Number at which to stop worrying

I think it is useful to distinguish between the psychological question “when might I stop feeling worried?” and the normative question “when ought I to stop feeling worried?” As a matter brute psychological fact, some people are obsessive worrriers and will worry even when it is unreasonable for th...
by HomerJ
Fri Feb 16, 2018 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 124
Views: 6534

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

Even Shiller doesn't claim that CAPE is historically accurate for forecasting returns much beyond ten years. Kitces found that whether valuations were historically low or high only impacted the next 30 years of returns by +/- 1%, hardly worth considering. P/E10 has the best predictive accuracy at 2...
by HomerJ
Fri Feb 16, 2018 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 124
Views: 6534

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

People have been making these kinds of bearish predictions for the last 10 years. Since 2008 SPY has returned over 7% real. A period that arguably includes the worst downturn since 1929. Nobody knows nothin. A fair coin is going to be flipped 20 times. My estimate is that it will come up heads 10 t...
by HomerJ
Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Number at which to stop worrying
Replies: 170
Views: 16450

Re: Number at which to stop worrying

It's about having enough money to be able to do what you want without worrying about how much it costs. I already have that. Because what I want doesn't cost that much. Reminds me of a classic Calvin and Hobbes cartoon. Calvin: If you could wish for anything in the world, what you wish for? Hobbes:...
by HomerJ
Fri Feb 16, 2018 12:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What big item (>20k) are you saving up for?
Replies: 109
Views: 7551

Re: What big item (>20k) are you saving up for?

However, of my "bucket list" items that actually cost money, the first is a world cruise. DW and I have the date penciled-in: Jan. 2020. 111 days. I'm not saving up for that NOW... But I do intend to add a few extra months at the end of my career and use that money for a 7 week cruise (starts in Se...
by HomerJ
Thu Feb 15, 2018 11:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Number at which to stop worrying
Replies: 170
Views: 16450

Re: Number at which to stop worrying

I’ll give you an honest answer — $15 million. That leaves me with $10 million to buy TIPS to cover $250k per year (infl adj) for the next 40 years. And $5 million to aggressively grow for my kids and grandkids. But I’ll probably quit before I hit that number. Maybe. Nope. If we get a 1970s type or ...
by HomerJ
Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Number at which to stop worrying
Replies: 170
Views: 16450

Re: Number at which to stop worrying

I’ll give you an honest answer — $15 million. That leaves me with $10 million to buy TIPS to cover $250k per year (infl adj) for the next 40 years. And $5 million to aggressively grow for my kids and grandkids. But I’ll probably quit before I hit that number. Maybe. Nope. If we get a 1970s type or ...
by HomerJ
Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do docs treat "white coat hypertension"?
Replies: 35
Views: 2024

Re: How do docs treat "white coat hypertension"?

I always take a bunch of slow deep breaths, relax my muscles, and my blood pressure is always fine. Part of me wonders if I am sabotaging myself by giving a false GOOD reading to the doctor. I have had a dentist tell me that it wasn't possible for me to lower my own blood pressure, I hope this is tr...
by HomerJ
Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Number at which to stop worrying
Replies: 170
Views: 16450

Re: Number at which to stop worrying

I’ll give you an honest answer — $15 million. That leaves me with $10 million to buy TIPS to cover $250k per year (infl adj) for the next 40 years. And $5 million to aggressively grow for my kids and grandkids. But I’ll probably quit before I hit that number. Maybe. That's the number that gets you ...
by HomerJ
Thu Feb 15, 2018 2:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Number at which to stop worrying
Replies: 170
Views: 16450

Re: Number at which to stop worrying

To me financial freedom means you can do whatever you want whenever you want without worrying about money. My aspirations of retirement aren't being able to buy a used truck, stay at the Holiday Inn, and take a Royal Caribbean cruise once or twice a year. What you're really saying is there's a cert...
by HomerJ
Thu Feb 15, 2018 2:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What big item (>20k) are you saving up for?
Replies: 109
Views: 7551

Re: What big item (>20k) are you saving up for?

Patek Philippe for sure ... Just kidding. I do love mechanical watches but right now not saving much for anything. Do like to travel a fair amount, but don’t blow anywhere close to 20k on any one trip (maybe over two or three years of 7-10 trips a year, mostly weekend jaunts). Not saving up for it,...
by HomerJ
Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 124
Views: 6534

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

So......... Is it maybe time to shift a higher allocation to total internal stock market index fund? Is anyone else considering putting more money into total INTL than they have US over the last few years? I've been selling US stocks, using that money and new money to buy bonds, balanced mutual fun...
by HomerJ
Thu Feb 15, 2018 1:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Daughter’s College & Grad School Expenses -Nurse Practitioner
Replies: 51
Views: 3215

Re: Daughter’s College & Grad School Expenses -Nurse Practitioner

Katietsu wrote:
Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:13 pm
But does this 21 year old with no clinical nursing experience have a true clear vision to commit to the NP?
This is important.

She should get her BSN, and actually do the work for a couple of years before she thinks about NP. And she should pay for the NP herself.
by HomerJ
Thu Feb 15, 2018 12:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the most the stock market has ever been down in 5 year period?
Replies: 19
Views: 2862

Re: What is the most the stock market has ever been down in 5 year period?

If you assume a 5% real return and a 20% standard deviation, then the standard deviation of 5-year annualized returns would be 9%. This means that 1/6 of all 5-year periods would lose more than 4% annualized (18% cumulative), and 1/40 would lose more than 13% annualized (50% cumulative). These are ...
by HomerJ
Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Gut check: is this lifestyle creep?
Replies: 37
Views: 5399

Re: Gut check: is this lifestyle creep?

But by the definition of spending rate increase, keeping the same savings rate and spending rate would not be creep. The creep, even as quoted by investopedia article, is when retirement savings can't sustain pre-retirement spending because spending rate grows in relation to savings. If someone mak...
by HomerJ
Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Gut check: is this lifestyle creep?
Replies: 37
Views: 5399

Re: Gut check: is this lifestyle creep?

I've heard the guideline that one should save half of any salary increase. I'm about to get a $40k increase in salary and I wonder if you think my plan amounts to lifestyle creep rather than following the spirit of the rule. My draft budget does have $20k in "new" savings, but it's mostly to taxabl...
by HomerJ
Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Number at which to stop worrying
Replies: 170
Views: 16450

Re: Number at which to stop worrying

Klangfool: Based on your response, wouldn't our portfolio requirement be a lot less rather than a lot more than 35X expenses if SS and pension income cover almost all of our annual expenses? Our residual expenses are essentially zero unless we make an unusual purchase. Tim Yes, Nowizard. It's 25x (...
by HomerJ
Wed Feb 14, 2018 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 124
Views: 6534

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

So far nobody has pointed out any major flaws in the article's methodology, but there have been a number of generally negative comments, which I can only take to mean most people either have not read the article or they have read the article but are uncomfortable with its conclusions. I read the ar...
by HomerJ
Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 124
Views: 6534

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

Future U.S. Equity Returns: A Best-Case Upper Limit Posted on January 15, 2018 by philosophicalecon@gmail.com http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2018/01/future-u-s-equity-returns-a-best-case-upper-limit/ I find this article highly fascinating. It confirms a hunch I've had all along that inflated...
by HomerJ
Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Random conversations regarding money
Replies: 44
Views: 4555

Re: Random conversations regarding money

Would some one earning $58k, or a family earning $75k, be able to replicate your real estate success, especially if they can only invest $12k/year? Good point. Probably not in 3-4 years. In 7-8 years for sure. The thing is, you only need $500-600K in real estate equity to generate $80K per year to ...
by HomerJ
Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 4% rule and early retirement?
Replies: 69
Views: 8181

Re: 4% rule and early retirement?

As for Wade Pfau, he's been saying 2.5% and 3% since 2010 and 2011. He also includes a 1% advisor fee in his calculations, so his numbers don't really apply to Bogleheads. What does "includes a 1% advisor fee in his calculations" mean? Is he saying that you can withdraw 3.5% - 4% safely, and then h...
by HomerJ
Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 4% rule and early retirement?
Replies: 69
Views: 8181

Re: 4% rule and early retirement?

The 50s aren't the time to retire in my opinion unless you don't have a choice, your job is intolerable (and you can't find a better one), or you know of some ticking health time bomb. Heh, I am SO retiring in my 50s. Okay, I might work part-time if they'll let me. But if I can't find a part-time j...
by HomerJ
Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Number at which to stop worrying
Replies: 170
Views: 16450

Re: Number at which to stop worrying

That started to change once I had enough to pay off the house in full, plus another $500k or so. At that number I'm confident that even if I lost my job as the markets tanked, I could pay off the mortgage and my wife and I could sell our labor for some type of compensation and get by. Not live the ...
by HomerJ
Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 69
Views: 5568

Re: What if you only live off dividends?

You can live off of dividends and interest if: 1. Your expenses are very very low. 2. You have substantial alternative income streams. IE: SS, Pension, Rentals, etc. 3. Your portfolio is humungous :shock: (technical term). j :D Groucho Marx was once walking around the New York Stock Exchange when o...
by HomerJ
Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 4% rule and early retirement?
Replies: 69
Views: 8181

Re: 4% rule and early retirement?

Looks like the UK SWR was 3.05%, and 12 of the remaining nations had SWRs below 3%, including Switzerland, Australia, Norway, Ireland, Spain, Belgium, Finland, and France, among others. Everyone has to find their own comfort level, but I think the exceptional US historical experience lulls many of ...
by HomerJ
Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Did you learn anything from the market correction?
Replies: 155
Views: 10224

Re: Did you learn anything from the market correction?

I learned my wife has been listening to me.

She handled those down days extremely well. She was completely "ah well, stay the course, and wait for it to come back".
by HomerJ
Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 4% rule and early retirement?
Replies: 69
Views: 8181

Re: 4% rule and early retirement?

The historical US experience has been exceptional. The SWR in other developed markets was lower in almost every case, often much lower: https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2014/03/04/does-international-diversification-improve-safe-withdrawal-rates Any international research that starts fro...
by HomerJ
Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 4% rule and early retirement?
Replies: 69
Views: 8181

Re: 4% rule and early retirement?

If not looking at the past, on what do you base your 3-3.5% ? Yep, that's the question and you might not like my answer, but here goes. I'm triangulating into it, looking at the future like this: 1. I believe my grandparents, parents and I have lived during a Golden Age in America. Sure, we had war...
by HomerJ
Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 69
Views: 5568

Re: What if you only live off dividends?

Sounds like you are advocating for an approximate 2% WR. Seems ultra conservative to me and I wouldn't want to work all of those extra years to save up 50x my expenses. This. It's a great idea if you can do it. Many people here make a LOT of money, and keep their expenses reasonable and DO end up w...
by HomerJ
Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation-dependent Safe Withdrawal Rate?
Replies: 29
Views: 1316

Re: Valuation-dependent Safe Withdrawal Rate?

Can you elaborate or point to sources on how the definition on earnings has changed? Not that I doubt you, as I'm familiar with data reporting standards changing over time for other variables like income inequality, labor:capital income share ratio, etc., but I'm curious to see this in more detail,...
by HomerJ
Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Number at which to stop worrying
Replies: 170
Views: 16450

Re: Number at which to stop worrying

Folks, The good thing about being unemployed for 1 year or longer a few times is A) I learned not to worry. I had to in order to survive. B) I am prepared for whatever worst case that I can imagine. For example, I am prepared for unemployment and recession lasting 5 years at any time. C) I have a p...
by HomerJ
Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Number at which to stop worrying
Replies: 170
Views: 16450

Re: Number at which to stop worrying

OP, 50 times your current annual expense. At 72K per year, it is 3.6 million. KlangFool That's utter safety. You guys can't stop worrying until you are 100% completely safe to maintain your current lifestyle? I stopped worrying when I realized I could maintain a bare-bones lifestyle if absolutely n...
by HomerJ
Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Number at which to stop worrying
Replies: 170
Views: 16450

Re: Number at which to stop worrying

This is different from other threads which talk about the number for early retirement. I want to continue working for the foreseeable future, but keep thinking at what level of NW could I relax a bit and not worry too much. Family of four in a MCOL area and single earner. Kids yet to go to college....
by HomerJ
Mon Feb 12, 2018 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I bought a stock today - Redfin (RDFN)
Replies: 286
Views: 19316

Re: I bought a stock today - Redfin (RDFN)

Didn't expect to see HOT STOCK PICKS on this board. Reads like the first few pages of the GTAT stock forums. Cool cool cool. What's wrong with discussing less expensive consumer driven companies? It's bogleheads.org. Jack Bogle, the guy who created Vanguard? Do you not believe there are similaritie...
by HomerJ
Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation-dependent Safe Withdrawal Rate?
Replies: 29
Views: 1316

Re: Valuation-dependent Safe Withdrawal Rate?

The 4% rule was established over high equation valuations but not high bond valuations. We currently have both, which is a historical abnormality. Where did you get that idea? Bond rates were lower than today in 1946, and stock market valuations were high. Yet 4% worked for people retiring in 1946....
by HomerJ
Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation-dependent Safe Withdrawal Rate?
Replies: 29
Views: 1316

Re: Valuation-dependent Safe Withdrawal Rate?

The 4% rule was established over high equation valuations but not high bond valuations. We currently have both, which is a historical abnormality. Where did you get that idea? Bond rates were lower than today in 1946, and stock market valuations were high. Yet 4% worked for people retiring in 1946....
by HomerJ
Mon Feb 12, 2018 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Driver’s Behind The Dip
Replies: 27
Views: 2690

Re: Larry Swedroe: Driver’s Behind The Dip

saltycaper wrote:
Mon Feb 12, 2018 2:49 pm
Toons wrote:
Mon Feb 12, 2018 2:46 pm
I believe In What Bogle says.
"Nobody Knows Nothing"
Excellent In 3 Words.
:happy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A0gQiz0pCyI
No rational person would invest if they truly believed this.
I like the phrase Nobody knows Enough* better

*to predict short-term market movements
by HomerJ
Mon Feb 12, 2018 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation-dependent Safe Withdrawal Rate?
Replies: 29
Views: 1316

Re: Valuation-dependent Safe Withdrawal Rate?

If the traditional strategy supported by historical data is that one can retire as soon as you have 25x living expenses (i.e. 4% SWR) in savings, then this target may instead be a function of current valuations. e.g. maybe at current market valuations, one should wait until they have 30x, 35x, or p...
by HomerJ
Mon Feb 12, 2018 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fixed Index Annuities
Replies: 22
Views: 1380

Re: Fixed Index Annuities

SPIA may be what you want. SIngle Premium Immediate Annuity. You give the insurance company $100,000 and they give you $7000 (or whatever - usually based on your age) for life. The $100,000 is gone. They are basically giving you your money back for the first 15+ years. But you don't have to worry ab...
by HomerJ
Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Random conversations regarding money
Replies: 44
Views: 4555

Re: Random conversations regarding money

ny_rn wrote:
Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:35 am
"I keep my gold bars in the house."
You should have said "So, where do you live?" :D
by HomerJ
Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the structure problems with whole life insurance?
Replies: 15
Views: 1278

Re: What are the structure problems with whole life insurance?

However, what you say is equally true of variable annuities which seem to be regarded as tolerable investment vehicles in some cases. Variable annuities, in general, are mostly all junk too. You need to read that thread again. Bogleheads like SPIAs, but that's NOT a variable annuity. SPIA stands fo...
by HomerJ
Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the structure problems with whole life insurance?
Replies: 15
Views: 1278

Re: What are the structure problems with whole life insurance?

Someone pitched me on whole life insurance, not as life insurance per se (since I do not have any dependents) but as a way to invest tax free. The plain old vanilla Total Stock Market Index Fund is very tax-efficient. Zero capital gains year-to-year; you only pay taxes on dividends. 20% tax (assumi...
by HomerJ
Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Driver’s Behind The Dip
Replies: 27
Views: 2690

Re: Larry Swedroe: Driver’s Behind The Dip

Dave: In my opinion, this is the most important part of the article: The important message I hope you will take away is that your investment plan should incorporate the virtual certainty you will experience severe bear markets, on average, about once a decade or so, and that you will have to live t...
by HomerJ
Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you think it is worth the money to travel to warm weather destinations during the winter?
Replies: 77
Views: 6260

Re: Do you think it is worth the money to travel to warm weather destinations during the winter?

hightower wrote:
Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:41 pm
Sandtrap wrote:
Sun Feb 11, 2018 11:55 am

Other friends have homes in cold climates and condos or townhouses in Hawaii. They are year round snowbirds.
That is my dream
That's our plan. 6 months in AZ in the winter, 6 months on a lake in the Midwest in the summer.

Two smaller houses instead of one big house.
by HomerJ
Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:02 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you think it is worth the money to travel to warm weather destinations during the winter?
Replies: 77
Views: 6260

Re: Do you think it is worth the money to travel to warm weather destinations during the winter?

We're headed out on a cruise ship with all three of our kids next week to give us a week away from the winter cold. But we've got the extra money for this. If $1500 is a decent chunk of your annual savings, it may not be wise. Would you travel with a friend? You could look into all-inclusive resorts...
by HomerJ
Sat Feb 10, 2018 1:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Shiller PE imply negative returns?
Replies: 57
Views: 3209

Re: Does Shiller PE imply negative returns?

https://www.gurufocus.com/shiller-PE.php Shiller PE is currently at 31 to 32. According to Guru focus, this suggests that stock returns will be around negative 2 to 3 percent over the next 8 years. How seriously do people take Shiller PE, and what it implies about future returns? Why? :happy People...
by HomerJ
Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Shiller PE imply negative returns?
Replies: 57
Views: 3209

Re: Does Shiller PE imply negative returns?

Shiller PE is just a valuation measure using smoothed inflation-adjusted earnings over a (usually 10-year) lookback period compared to current price. It doesn't in of itself imply any returns. It's not a forecasting model. There are forecasting models use Shiller PE as an input, while other approac...