Search found 10194 matches

by HomerJ
Wed Nov 22, 2017 1:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla truck unveil
Replies: 98
Views: 5889

Re: Tesla truck unnveil

I like Tesla's product and that's the main reason I am buying Tesla's stock. That is a TERRIBLE reason to have 10% of your money in a stock. Terrible may be an overstatement. It worked for Peter Lynch of Fidelity Magellan fame. Peter Lynch looked at the numbers too. He started with "Hey, my daughte...
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 21, 2017 9:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are the things you want to do between 55 and 65?
Replies: 107
Views: 5963

Re: What are the things you want to do between 55 and 65?

There are also psychological factors. If you retire early, you have self-expectation to use your time to the fullest. If you retire late, you feel that you "deserve" to vegetate in front of TV. The former prolongs your life and enhances its quality; the latter does not. Victoria I have seen researc...
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 21, 2017 6:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are the things you want to do between 55 and 65?
Replies: 107
Views: 5963

Re: What are the things you want to do between 55 and 65?

... I am right behind you. Booked our first tour trip to Peru in May, after my solo trip in February to China, Thailand, and Vietnam. A two week trip to Europe is planned in July or August. We still have not figured out where to go in the first week of 2018. We will do as much travel as we could, r...
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 21, 2017 6:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why not take Social Security at 62
Replies: 139
Views: 7996

Re: Why not take Social Security at 62

longinvest wrote:
Tue Nov 21, 2017 8:00 am
Here's a different way to look at the problem: Delay Social Security to age 70 and Spend more money at 62.
It makes a lot of sense.

But I don't like the idea of spending MY money down from 62-70, assuming nothing will change in those 8 years with Social Security.
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 21, 2017 6:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why not take Social Security at 62
Replies: 139
Views: 7996

Re: Why not take Social Security at 62

My wife is 8 years older than me. I plan to retire when I am 55 and she is 63. She will take SS at 63, and we plan on using that to pay for health insurance until we both qualify for Medicare. I'll probably take SS as soon as possible, but that's about 15 years away, so no plan for it yet. We'll se...
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 21, 2017 2:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why not take Social Security at 62
Replies: 139
Views: 7996

Re: Why not take Social Security at 62

My wife is 8 years older than me. I plan to retire when I am 55 and she is 63. She will take SS at 63, and we plan on using that to pay for health insurance until we both qualify for Medicare. I'll probably take SS as soon as possible, but that's about 15 years away, so no plan for it yet. We'll see...
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 21, 2017 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla truck unveil
Replies: 98
Views: 5889

Re: Tesla truck unnveil

gougou wrote:
Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:12 pm
I like Tesla's product and that's the main reason I am buying Tesla's stock.
That is a TERRIBLE reason to have 10% of your money in a stock.
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 21, 2017 1:45 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are the things you want to do between 55 and 65?
Replies: 107
Views: 5963

Re: What are the things you want to do between 55 and 65?

My wife and I want to move to a retirement community that has lot of activities. Sports, clubs, card-games. A chance to meet new people and make new friends... We're working hard to get some of our family members to join us. Warmer place near Phoenix - we'd probably spend 7 months a year there from ...
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 21, 2017 1:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are the things you want to do between 55 and 65?
Replies: 107
Views: 5963

Re: What are the things you want to do between 55 and 65?

flyingaway wrote:
Mon Nov 20, 2017 7:51 pm
I am fortunate to have a job that can be described as part-time, so I have a lot of time to do many things. I just have not found something that requires me to quit my job.
There is no reason for you to retire. There's no sweeter gig than working at a University.
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 21, 2017 1:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why NOT make more money?
Replies: 195
Views: 15899

Re: Why NOT make more money?

I am planning my 1st one-week vacation in 2018 (another thread), which comes around $5k. So I only can do such vacations in two week time, why should I even consider retire? Stay home and watch TV? The only two things you can think to do in retirement is travel and watch TV? You probably shouldn't ...
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 21, 2017 1:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why NOT make more money?
Replies: 195
Views: 15899

Re: Why NOT make more money?

This example has come up many times. I was thinking about it exactly last night. What if I die very soon? I would die peacefully, knowing that my family would be taken care of without worrying about the money. You don't care that they would be sad they didn't get some more time with you because you...
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 21, 2017 12:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why NOT make more money?
Replies: 195
Views: 15899

Re: Why NOT make more money?

The most depressing notion of the 4% withdrawal rate is the expectation that my life will be grocery bills, electric bills, and gas bills. I know the objective is to also average in all the new roofs and new cars and foreign travel and assorted other discretionary spending, but who knows what those...
by HomerJ
Mon Nov 20, 2017 5:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla truck unveil
Replies: 98
Views: 5889

Re: Tesla truck unnveil

So what do you guys think about Tesla stock? I have about 10% of my stock portfolio in TSLA. Have you been reading here long? Very few people here recommend big allocations to single stocks. But if you want my opinion (which is worthless, but you are the one asking strangers on the Internet), I thi...
by HomerJ
Mon Nov 20, 2017 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 133
Views: 9841

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

WHY is it that some people can get in such denial about bond crashes? They happened, and they were extremely painful, plain and simple. And they can happen again. Yes, but they were caused by inflation, not by rising interest rates. So the fact that it's "obvious that interest rates are going to ri...
by HomerJ
Mon Nov 20, 2017 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 133
Views: 9841

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

Bond FUNDS are self-correcting. As old bonds mature, they get redeemed, and new bonds (at the newer rates) get bought and added to the portfolio. Can someone verify that this is correct? I thought so too, but then I discovered that bond funds have a pretty high turnover ratio (Vanguard Total Bond M...
by HomerJ
Mon Nov 20, 2017 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 133
Views: 9841

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

willthrill81 wrote:
Sat Nov 18, 2017 9:57 pm
The problem I see is that when people typically talk about "danger" with bonds, it revolves around interest rate hikes. This is a short-sighted take on the issue, IMHO. Inflation has, historically represented the real risk to nominal bonds, not changing interest rates.
This.
by HomerJ
Mon Nov 20, 2017 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 133
Views: 9841

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

But with interest rates at zero, there is only one way for interest rates to go. And bonds have an extremely simple relationship with interest rates. Rates go up, bonds go down in value, and vice versa. This isn't about making a prediction but just arithmetic. The only situation in which bonds don'...
by HomerJ
Fri Nov 17, 2017 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6165

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

So I am not telling people to run for the hills in terror. I am not telling people to sell their stocks. What I am saying is that additional caution at this point is warranted. I understand your points, I really do. I'm not saying you are wrong. The chances for a crash or future lower returns (for ...
by HomerJ
Fri Nov 17, 2017 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6165

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

I just think it is foolish to say that valuations don't matter, they clearly do. None of this is exact, we can sustain high stock returns if P/E ratios keep expanding. But they won't keep expanding into infinity. At some point, there will be a reversion to the mean. At some point if this keeps us, ...
by HomerJ
Fri Nov 17, 2017 11:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: MoviePass-Too good to be true, but it's legit.
Replies: 130
Views: 14017

Re: MoviePass-Too good to be true, but it's legit.

I have no idea what a production company or studio would be willing to pay for their information, but I know they are willing to pay millions for 30 secs of air time on television. 5 million for a 30s superbowl ad seen by 100 million people 100 million people *10/ticket is 1 billion dollars I'd be ...
by HomerJ
Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla truck unveil
Replies: 98
Views: 5889

Re: Tesla truck unnveil

Stock is up about $12 this AM premarket. Not a BH thing but when Elon Musk has an event like this you usually see this sort of price action. So if you had bought, even at the high $318, yesterday for 100 shares, you could probably get out this AM with $700. I know, I know. But not an investment, a ...
by HomerJ
Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pile of Cash - What to do
Replies: 25
Views: 2862

Re: Pile of Cash - What to do

alpenglow wrote:
Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:22 am
I would withdraw the cash and swim in it like Scrooge McDuck.
Makes a lot more sense than trying to dive into gold coins. That would hurt!
by HomerJ
Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Request for Promotion letter to Senior Management
Replies: 155
Views: 12266

Re: Request for Promotion letter to Senior Management

I am surprised about the - find a better offer and threaten to quit now responses, considering one of my main responsibilities is to ensure my mom has a comfortable remaining life and the fact that the flexibility in my current position affords me that capability. I thought you were younger too... ...
by HomerJ
Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Request for Promotion letter to Senior Management
Replies: 155
Views: 12266

Re: Request for Promotion letter to Senior Management

The right way to do it is to schedule time with the person and instead of saying “I need to be promoted” instead sat “what do I need to demonstrate to get to the next level?” This. Always ask "What do I need to do to get promoted?" Get specifics. Be ready to look for another job if you meet their r...
by HomerJ
Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6165

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

I just think sticking fingers in your ears and saying la, la, la, I can't hear you just doesn't seem like a reasoned approach to investing. Is that what I'm doing? Or am I saying "No one knows enough to predict the stock market"? The "experts" get things wrong all the time, so I don't bother listen...
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 14, 2017 8:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Selling my house in Miami, is it smart decision?
Replies: 15
Views: 1659

Re: Selling my house in Miami, is it smart decision?

Rodrigo, Unfortunately, you've come to the wrong place for the advice your seeking. No one on this board (or collectively) can accurately assess whether it's sensible to sell your house now or wait 6 months or wait 10 years. If you care to post additional details about your financials, then you'll ...
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 14, 2017 5:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Selling my house in Miami, is it smart decision?
Replies: 15
Views: 1659

Re: Selling my house in Miami, is it smart decision?

Owning a house long-term in Miami does not sound like a good idea to me. Why? Just curious. Flooding. Miami is built on limestone, so you can't even build a wall around it to keep the sea out; it soaks up from underneath. They recently upgraded their pumps, so they are somewhat keeping up with the ...
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6165

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

One of the problems with assessing what a normalized P/E should be for an entire universe of stocks for a given country over time is that we aren't dealing with an apples-to-apples comparison. That happens for many reasons. One of which is that fundamental accounting changes influence all stocks in...
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: I got this!!
Replies: 82
Views: 9667

Re: Retirees: I got this!!

For the 16 months from Nov 2007 until March 2009, our portfolio value dropped by 40%. Fortunately, we recovered a large portion of that drop by year's end, 2009. 80% in stocks is a lot in retirement. You were lucky it bounced back so fast. What if it had taken 5 years to recover instead of 1 year?
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 14, 2017 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6165

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

We got the 14% growth because of P/E expansion, the speculative return that Mr. Bogle talks about. Stock prices ultimately will reflect actual economic growth and actual corporate earnings growth. Historically, corporate earnings grow probably more like 6% a year on a sustainable basis. Trees do no...
by HomerJ
Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.
Replies: 136
Views: 12724

Re: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.

But lets look at your "Catastrophic case" 50% loss, 2% gains for 8 year, and then 10%? That isn't really that bad. Look up japan were we are off by ~33% 28 years later. If that oft-referenced Japanese investor had bought a world market portfolio they would be doing fine. If they had followed the vo...
by HomerJ
Sun Nov 12, 2017 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you project the amount you will have to spend annually in retirement?
Replies: 76
Views: 4160

Re: How do you project the amount of income you will have in retirement?

For those who retire well before SS they may want to spend well beyond 4% before collecting SS so if I want to have level spending for the first 15 years of my retirement 10 years before SS and 5 years after I am not thinking a straight 4% would give me the proper approximation. Kinda why I created...
by HomerJ
Sun Nov 12, 2017 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you project the amount you will have to spend annually in retirement?
Replies: 76
Views: 4160

Re: How do you project the amount of income you will have in retirement?

For those who retire well before SS they may want to spend well beyond 4% before collecting SS so if I want to have level spending for the first 15 years of my retirement 10 years before SS and 5 years after I am not thinking a straight 4% would give me the proper approximation. Kinda why I created...
by HomerJ
Sun Nov 12, 2017 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6165

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

We got the 14% growth because of P/E expansion, the speculative return that Mr. Bogle talks about. Stock prices ultimately will reflect actual economic growth and actual corporate earnings growth. Historically, corporate earnings grow probably more like 6% a year on a sustainable basis. Trees do no...
by HomerJ
Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6165

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

The current dividend yield is 1.95% (Barrons.com). The mean PE10 since 1881 is about 16.8. The current PE10 is about 31.33 (Robert Shiller's website). Shiller reported (in recent interview) that real earnings growth from 1881 until the present is about 1.8% (better than Siegel's reported 1.25%). St...
by HomerJ
Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you project the amount you will have to spend annually in retirement?
Replies: 76
Views: 4160

Re: How do you project the amount you will have to spend annually in retirement?

I run the numbers for 3%, 3.3%, 3.5% and 4% but 3.3% is the number I really put the weight on . While I think I have a very good handle on my basic/mandatory expenses the discretionary seems a lot more nebulous to me. But I really like to understand how much I can expect to be able to spend because...
by HomerJ
Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you project the amount you will have to spend annually in retirement?
Replies: 76
Views: 4160

Re: How do you project the amount of income you will have in retirement?

For those who retire well before SS they may want to spend well beyond 4% before collecting SS so if I want to have level spending for the first 15 years of my retirement 10 years before SS and 5 years after I am not thinking a straight 4% would give me the proper approximation. Kinda why I created...
by HomerJ
Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you project the amount you will have to spend annually in retirement?
Replies: 76
Views: 4160

Re: How do you project the amount you will have to spend annually in retirement?

How do you project the amount of income you will have in retirement? I use what I consider a fairly simple spreadsheet I created and validate the numbers it produces are reasonable using FireCalc and I-ORP. I don't use Firecalc or I-Orp exclusively because I have a couple custom scenarios built it ...
by HomerJ
Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity 10X Retirement Rule - - Valid???
Replies: 46
Views: 2972

Re: Fidelity 10X Retirement Rule - - Valid???

It is a perfectly fine rule of thumb, as plenty of empirical research has repeatedly shown. I think the Expenses Brigade always has a knee jerk reaction to this that they don't have for many other topics and I don't understand the religious fervor. If someone saves 10 years of salary by the time th...
by HomerJ
Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity 10X Retirement Rule - - Valid???
Replies: 46
Views: 2972

Re: Fidelity 10X Retirement Rule - - Valid???

No, because salary can be meaningless.

Expenses are what matters.

There are bunch of assumptions baked into any "rule" that uses your salary/income, which may not apply to you.

Expenses are the correct metric. You have to replace your SPENDING in retirement, not your income.
by HomerJ
Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: I got this!!
Replies: 82
Views: 9667

Re: Retirees: I got this!!

2009 retiree here. So 8 years out, divorced since. No debt. Own home. All my savings in retirement tax deferred retirement accounts. IRA, and Roth. New truck. I love being retired. I feel like I got my life back, and feel like a kid again, but without financial worry. You got divorced AFTER retirin...
by HomerJ
Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: I got this!!
Replies: 82
Views: 9667

Re: Retirees: I got this!!

It very much depends on circumstances. I retired in December 1998 at 52 for various reasons. I had some money in the market and some real estate. I was nervous for 13 years about having enough money to stay retired. I experienced just about every bad event and sequencing thing talked about here. I ...
by HomerJ
Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6165

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

According to Rob Arnott's group, Research Affiliates What did they predict in the past? Were they correct? I just did a quick google search and I'm not finding a lot of their old predictions. I did see something where Rob Arnott was part of a group that predicted a lower equity premium going forwar...
by HomerJ
Sat Nov 11, 2017 6:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When would you take a part-time option?
Replies: 23
Views: 1728

Re: When would you take a part-time option?

I am also fortunate that my job would allow me to go part time. I plan to go part time once we hit 25x annual expenses. What is your job? And yeah, at 25x expenses, I'll probably go part-time too, because that's not dangerous. If I lose the part-time work, no big deal when you have 25x expenses. Yo...
by HomerJ
Sat Nov 11, 2017 6:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When would you take a part-time option?
Replies: 23
Views: 1728

Re: When would you take a part-time option?

EnjoyIt wrote:
Sat Nov 11, 2017 4:35 pm
Nursing in a hospital. Most places are so understaffed a nurse can always find PRN work. Same for radiology tech, ultrasound tech, CT tech.
I stand corrected. It does seem that doctors and nurses and other medical staff are the exception.
by HomerJ
Sat Nov 11, 2017 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: I got this!!
Replies: 82
Views: 9667

Re: Retirees: I got this!!

It should be no surprise that recent retirees are exceeding expectations because of very good market performance. No guarantee that the next cohort of retirees will have the same experience so I'm not sure that recent experience will be a useful guide for future retirees. This. Sorry guys... All yo...
by HomerJ
Sat Nov 11, 2017 1:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When would you take a part-time option?
Replies: 23
Views: 1728

Re: When would you take a part-time option?

For my wife and I, having already arrived at >50x, at age 52 and 58, the only three compelling reasons to keep working (and making money) are 1. The uncertain future for health insurance. 2. The need for a reason to get out of bed in the morning. 3. The strong desire to leave my wife with enough mo...
by HomerJ
Sat Nov 11, 2017 1:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When would you take a part-time option?
Replies: 23
Views: 1728

Re: When would you take a part-time option?

Recent discussion in threads on making money or not making money and retirement to a "life of leisure" or "working until you are dead" lead me to start this thread. In our situation, both my wife and I have the option to work full time (40hrs / week which typically ends up being much more than that...
by HomerJ
Fri Nov 10, 2017 5:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why NOT make more money?
Replies: 195
Views: 15899

Re: Why NOT make more money?

We are in early 50s and have achieved financial independence at the comfortable level (4% rule). Many people on this board are very fortunate to hit 25x expenses in their late 40s or early 50s or even mid 50s. Going a little further for some extra luxuries is not a huge sacrifice. But you only get ...
by HomerJ
Fri Nov 10, 2017 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 260
Views: 35035

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

It's also worth noting that Robert Schiller's article that "crystallized" your thinking has to be taken into the context that Robert Schiller has not, and did not, and will not beat the market - just like nearly everyone else. It's also worth noting that Schiller predicted 0% real return for the ne...