Yes, John Irving should definitely have a book or two on that list for humor.
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- Fri Mar 15, 2024 2:38 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: "22 of the funniest novels since Catch-22" (acc. to the NYT)
- Replies: 29
- Views: 2877
Re: "22 of the funniest novels since Catch-22" (acc. to the NYT)
- Fri Mar 15, 2024 1:58 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: "22 of the funniest novels since Catch-22" (acc. to the NYT)
- Replies: 29
- Views: 2877
Re: "22 of the funniest novels since Catch-22" (acc. to the NYT)
People don't like Catch-22?
So many good quotes.
“The Texan turned out to be good-natured, generous and likable. In three days no one could stand him.”
“Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they aren't after you.”
“What would they do to me," he asked in confidential tones, "if I refused to fly them?"
"We'd probably shoot you," ex-P.F.C. Wintergreen replied.
"We?" Yossarian cried in surprise. "What do you mean, we? Since when are you on their side?"
"If you're going to be shot, whose side do you expect me to be on?" ex-P.F.C. Wintergreen retorted
“They’re not going to send a crazy man out to be killed, are they?”
“Who else will go?”
So many good quotes.
“The Texan turned out to be good-natured, generous and likable. In three days no one could stand him.”
“Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they aren't after you.”
“What would they do to me," he asked in confidential tones, "if I refused to fly them?"
"We'd probably shoot you," ex-P.F.C. Wintergreen replied.
"We?" Yossarian cried in surprise. "What do you mean, we? Since when are you on their side?"
"If you're going to be shot, whose side do you expect me to be on?" ex-P.F.C. Wintergreen retorted
“They’re not going to send a crazy man out to be killed, are they?”
“Who else will go?”
- Thu Mar 14, 2024 9:43 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: 5M, probably enough to retire to a frugal lifestyle
- Replies: 180
- Views: 15179
Re: 5M, probably enough to retire to a frugal lifestyle
Do you even know how much a 600 sf apartment rent for in coastal town in Socal ? Do you know that the world is bigger than the coastal town in Socal? It is a choice to live in that area. It is a luxury. KlangFool But you are comparing your standard of living from a low cost of living state to one of the highest cost of living states in America. It is a luxury to live in one of the highest cost of living area. Some folks choose it. KlangFool What was the purpose of living in a lower cost area in a smaller footprint home? Probably a much bigger, newer, nicer home. And next to a beautiful lake with a view from your deck. And a boat and a couple of jetskis. Or you could live in a much smaller older home in CA and complain about how you are for...
- Thu Mar 14, 2024 6:26 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: 5M, probably enough to retire to a frugal lifestyle
- Replies: 180
- Views: 15179
Re: 5M, probably enough to retire to a frugal lifestyle
I saw a TV show where this short ugly fat guy had a beautiful girlfriend, and someone asked him, "What, are you some kind of millionaire or something?"
And the guy laughed, and said "Oh, no, no, no.... I made my first billion by 25"
- Thu Mar 14, 2024 3:00 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Holding 100% stocks after FI best option for longer time horizons?
- Replies: 74
- Views: 8101
Re: Holding 100% stocks after FI best option for longer time horizons?
Haven't read all the replies but FWIW, my Firecalc success rate is always highest if I set it to 100% stocks. That's not always true. What are your inputs? All chances of success go down the longer the period, but it's true that more stocks did seem to help for longer periods than 30 years. But 30 years, it was not the best solution. Just don't expect 4% withdrawals to work for longer periods (10%-20% failure rates is probably not good enough). But remember we don't have a lot of data here. This is all in the past. Not that many 30-year periods to look at really, and even fewer 50-year periods to look at. 30 year retirement: 4% withdrawals, using 5-year treasury bonds, 0.04 expense ratio 100% stock - 94.3% success (6 cycles failed out of 1...
- Thu Mar 14, 2024 11:05 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Holding 100% stocks after FI best option for longer time horizons?
- Replies: 74
- Views: 8101
Re: Holding 100% stocks after FI best option for longer time horizons?
Haven't read all the replies but FWIW, my Firecalc success rate is always highest if I set it to 100% stocks. That's not always true. What are your inputs? All chances of success go down the longer the period, but it's true that more stocks did seem to help for longer periods than 30 years. But 30 years, it was not the best solution. Just don't expect 4% withdrawals to work for longer periods (10%-20% failure rates is probably not good enough). But remember we don't have a lot of data here. This is all in the past. Not that many 30-year periods to look at really, and even fewer 50-year periods to look at. 30 year retirement: 4% withdrawals, using 5-year treasury bonds, 0.04 expense ratio 100% stock - 94.3% success (6 cycles failed out of 1...
- Thu Mar 14, 2024 9:45 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Who's up for pickleball? Zero-zero-two. Game On!
- Replies: 377
- Views: 84277
Re: Who's up for pickleball? Zero-zero-two. Game On!
I would say Yes. Here are the official ratings: Definitions of Player Skill Ratings - USA Pickleball It's not just physical ability, but understanding strategy and tactics. You need to play for a while to get accustomed to what those descriptions mean. Interesting... Those descriptions are way off compared to the skill level at my club. All the 3.0s at my place appear to be 3.5s or even 4.0s based on that (we all can mostly control depth of return, and have a drop shot, and are decent at dinking, and you definitely don't want to pop it up too high and give any of us an overhand slam opportunity) Very weird that those descriptions act like it's hard to return a serve. Like 3.0s aren't even consistent at hitting the very first return. (???)
- Thu Mar 14, 2024 9:37 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Who's up for pickleball? Zero-zero-two. Game On!
- Replies: 377
- Views: 84277
Re: Who's up for pickleball? Zero-zero-two. Game On!
Heh, yes probably.
Unless you're a retired professional tennis or ping-pong player.
A good athlete can hold their own maybe with the 3.0, right off the bat, but there's no way you have the feel yet for all the different shots.
I see tennis players do pretty well right off the bat, but dinking at the net or a well-placed lob can counteract their strong tennis swings.
But sounds like it won't take you long to master the sport!
- Thu Mar 14, 2024 9:29 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Holding 100% stocks after FI best option for longer time horizons?
- Replies: 74
- Views: 8101
Re: Holding 100% stocks after FI best option for longer time horizons?
Haven't read all the replies but FWIW, my Firecalc success rate is always highest if I set it to 100% stocks. That's not always true. What are your inputs? All chances of success go down the longer the period, but it's true that more stocks did seem to help for longer periods than 30 years. But 30 years, it was not the best solution. Just don't expect 4% withdrawals to work for longer periods (10%-20% failure rates is probably not good enough). But remember we don't have a lot of data here. This is all in the past. Not that many 30-year periods to look at really, and even fewer 50-year periods to look at. 30 year retirement: 4% withdrawals, using 5-year treasury bonds, 0.04 expense ratio 100% stock - 94.3% success (6 cycles failed out of 1...
- Wed Mar 13, 2024 8:09 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: SS is insufficient, very little savings, what's the best option
- Replies: 49
- Views: 7791
Re: SS is insufficient, very little savings, what's the best option
Likely beyond their imaginations, but I would emigrate to western Panama for low cost housing among many other Americans in similar circumstances who are living on only their Social Security incomes . Sell the US house for a permanent emergency fund only after living in Panama for at least a year in order to experience both the full wet and dry seasons at any one chosen location. Panama's tropical heat at sea level is ameliorated at moderately higher elevations. Panama uses US currency for its legal tender, but does mint their own coins. Boquete Panama has grown more expensive due to its popularity, but there are other smaller towns with similar altitude based weather, that are the affordable destinations for new expats. YouTube is awash i...
- Wed Mar 13, 2024 7:54 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Is it Too Late to Invest in VTI?
- Replies: 126
- Views: 19018
Re: Is it Too Late to Invest in VTI?
If the market crashes, vti will absolutely crash. If it didn’t there would be something very wrong, as it is designed to mirror the market. Peaks and crashes over the long term are going to happen, so your investment strategy has to take that into account. VTI is 12% made up of two stocks - Apple and MS. Just 2 stocks. It is 31% technology. That is not "the market". That is not how to diversify. Wise to include other funds, in addition to VTI. That is the market, though. The market has chosen to weight those stocks very heavy. Exactly... There was a time when IBM and AT&T made up near 12% of the market. And that was the early 80s, I believe... Pretty good time to invest in the SP500, even though both of those stocks dropped b...
- Tue Mar 12, 2024 11:10 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: moving from ~600k to ~1.5M income
- Replies: 74
- Views: 11741
Re: moving from ~600k to ~1.5M income
Umm.. he is (was?) an emergency room doctor... I think White Coat Investor has done his part to help the world, not even counting his blog.blimp wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 10:52 pmDon't underestimate how many people you have helped indirectly. I refinanced my student loans many years ago after reading one of your blogs. Having my finances in order and on autopilot allows me to spend more time on my career and family.White Coat Investor wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 12:41 pmOuch.BicycleBuiltForTwo wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 10:54 amSounds like your brother is doing much more to help the world, then .
Everybody is doing their part to push the world forward.
Sheesh to Bicycle guy.
- Tue Mar 12, 2024 10:27 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
- Replies: 5210
- Views: 829195
Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
LOL. Yeah, just go ahead and count on those extra expected returns!Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Tue Mar 12, 2024 6:35 pm I also don't think it's that big of a deal to hold in taxable either. If it's expected to return 2% more due to lower valuations, then that will easily make up for any tax drag due to unqualified status on dividends.
That hasn't worked for the past 10 years, but might indeed work out going forward.
But to count on it? That's seems really dumb.
- Tue Mar 12, 2024 10:26 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
- Replies: 5210
- Views: 829195
Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
I keep all my International in my IRA, so I don't care about taxes. It IS a pain, so I avoid it.nyejos11 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 12, 2024 5:22 pm I was just looking at my Vanguard 1099. The amount of Nonqualified dividends that my total international fund ( VTIAX) incurred, compared to only qualified dividends in my total us ( VTSAX) is making me want to dump my entire international and go US only. No Im not talking about foreign tax withheld, thats minor compared to the Nonqualified dividends. Thoughts? Should I just dump it because of all the tax drag? Morningstar tax cost ratio is 36 on the US and 88 on the INT.
- Tue Mar 12, 2024 9:43 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Is it Too Late to Invest in VTI?
- Replies: 126
- Views: 19018
Re: Is it Too Late to Invest in VTI?
As I stated in my original post, My Income Account is growing by 8.25%. I never said my "cash values" were growing by 8.25%.You are welcome to your opinion that it represents a "fake guarantee," but the facts show differently. My Income Account values as of close of business 3-11-24 are $25,191.79 higher than they were when the annuities were purchased in July, 2023. Were I to "turn on" the guaranteed lifetime benefits today, that "growth" would be reflected in the income stream. I am aware that many BHs are dismissive of annuities and their "guarantees," and while you are entitled to your own opinion, you are not entitled to your own facts. There are too many comments on these boards where...
- Tue Mar 12, 2024 9:12 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Where to take Senior on Caribbean vacation?
- Replies: 13
- Views: 1020
Re: Where to take Senior on Caribbean vacation?
Hello, I want to take my 80 year old Mom on a one week vacation to a relaxing spot in the Caribbean. She walks a mile every day but may find it hard to walk a steep incline or on very uneven surfaces. She prefers doing one small sightseeing trip a day. We can go upscale if it is worth it. Any recommendations for which island/country to visit? Any recommendation on a hotel? We don't drink and are mostly vegetarian so the all-inclusive resorts may not be the best deal for us. We are wondering if somewhere like Aruba or Barbados would work. Any help is greatly appreciated! Take her on a cruise. Easy to do a flat one mile walk on a cruise ship (usually top deck has a walking track), and she can get off at various stops. One small sightseeing t...
- Mon Mar 11, 2024 8:25 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: SS is insufficient, very little savings, what's the best option
- Replies: 49
- Views: 7791
Re: SS is insufficient, very little savings, what's the best option
People with less than $100,000 in liquid assets should not be putting anything in the stock market. They can’t stand the volatility. Cash equivalents are the only way to go. If they could purchase a mortgage-free condo apartment with the equity in their current home, that would probably be the single best step they could take to ease their retirement financial strain. A deep dive to list all of their expected expenses also is important. As is identifying whether her consulting business has any resale value. This. Sell the house, buy a cheaper condo for cash (less maintenance, but account for the HOA fees). Still should cut their expenses by a LOT to have no mortgage. Might even be able to live on their SS at that point. They should still k...
- Mon Mar 11, 2024 7:52 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
- Replies: 5210
- Views: 829195
Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
My only point was that since 2010, a large component of US returns has come from Valuation expansion. And that's true. It was over 4% of the annualized return. It's ALL cherry-picking You say Starting CAPE in 2010: 20.5 Jan 2020 CAPE: 31 But it is ALSO true that Starting CAPE in 2007 was 28 Oct 2022 CAPE was ALSO 28 SP500 was 1500 in 2007, and 3900 in Oct 2022 So there's 15 years, which is an even longer period than your 10 year period, and therefore MORE valid, right? And that shows valuations have had nothing to do with the 160% gain over 15 years (closer to 200% with dividends) (No, not really, because it's ALSO cherry-picked). We can prove anything we want by choosing the dates. You need to stop posting certain dates as "proof&quo...
- Mon Mar 11, 2024 7:28 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
- Replies: 5210
- Views: 829195
Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
My only point was that since 2010, a large component of US returns has come from Valuation expansion. And that's true. It was over 4% of the annualized return. It's ALL cherry-picking You say Starting CAPE in 2010: 20.5 Jan 2020 CAPE: 31 But it is ALSO true that Starting CAPE in 2007 was 28 Oct 2022 CAPE was ALSO 28 SP500 was 1500 in 2007, and 3900 in Oct 2022 So there's 15 years, which is an even longer period than your 10 year period, and therefore MORE valid, right? And that shows valuations have had nothing to do with the 160% gain over 15 years (closer to 200% with dividends) (No, not really, because it's ALSO cherry-picked). We can prove anything we want by choosing the dates. You need to stop posting certain dates as "proof&quo...
- Mon Mar 11, 2024 7:09 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
- Replies: 5210
- Views: 829195
Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Several times it was mentioned that PE expansion is what contributed to the US returns since GFC. Here is one chart that does not support such a claim. https://awealthofcommonsense.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Screenshot-2024-02-14-121940.png Full Article https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/02/whats-driving-the-stock-market-returns/ Starting CAPE in 2010: 20.5 Jan 2020 CAPE: 31 This annualizes to over 4% Starting CAPE in Jan 2018: 32 CAPE today: 34 SP500 in 2018, 2700 SP500 today, 5100. More than an 100% gain in 6 years (when you include dividends). And NOT explained by valuation expansions. 6 years is noise Oh. but 10 years is rock-solid. and 6% or so was attributed to expansion in valuations So 94%+ wasn't.
- Mon Mar 11, 2024 6:17 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: How Much Cash Do You Keep In Your Home?
- Replies: 207
- Views: 14900
Re: How Much Cash Do You Keep In Your Home?
"How much cash do you keep in your home?"
"And where do you keep it?"
"And when you are usually away from home?"
"And where do you keep it?"
"And when you are usually away from home?"
- Mon Mar 11, 2024 6:13 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Treasuries - Up or Down rest of 2024
- Replies: 20
- Views: 1793
Re: Treasuries - Up or Down rest of 2024
The answer is, of course, no one knows.
Put $1 million in each, if it's going to drive you crazy to have picked wrong.
Put $1 million in each, if it's going to drive you crazy to have picked wrong.
- Mon Mar 11, 2024 6:02 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: SS is insufficient, very little savings, what's the best option
- Replies: 49
- Views: 7791
Re: SS is insufficient, very little savings, what's the best option
Sell the house, buy a smaller one.
That will reduce expenses.
Do NOT go to Edward Jones. Vanguard offers Personal Account Services (PAS) over the phone for much cheaper.
But in this situation, I'd just say save everything they can over the next 5 years in money-markets or CDs paying 4%-5%.
Maybe after they have $100,000 in safe accounts, they could look to invest a little in the stock market. But for now, they need to build up that safe money, and since interest rates right now are decent, it's still making money for them.
That will reduce expenses.
Do NOT go to Edward Jones. Vanguard offers Personal Account Services (PAS) over the phone for much cheaper.
But in this situation, I'd just say save everything they can over the next 5 years in money-markets or CDs paying 4%-5%.
Maybe after they have $100,000 in safe accounts, they could look to invest a little in the stock market. But for now, they need to build up that safe money, and since interest rates right now are decent, it's still making money for them.
- Mon Mar 11, 2024 5:54 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Holding 100% stocks after FI best option for longer time horizons?
- Replies: 74
- Views: 8101
Re: Holding 100% stocks after FI best option for longer time horizons?
Someone with 100% stock portfolio went broke if they retired in 1929. Someone with an 60/40 portfolio did not. (That assumes a 4% or higher withdrawal rate). SORR (Sequence of Return Risk) is when the market crashes, stays down for an extended amount of time, and the entire time you are pulling money from what's left of your portfolio to buy food. If the crash lasts long enough, you'll have spent down so much of your portfolio, that the next bull market won't be enough to get you back to even. For instance, pulling $40k a year from $1 million 100% stock portfolio. Market crashes 60%, you now only have $400,000, and you're still pulling $40,000 a year. If the market stays down for 5 years, you will have pulled $200,000, and be down to $200,0...
- Mon Mar 11, 2024 3:01 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: moving from ~600k to ~1.5M income
- Replies: 74
- Views: 11741
Re: moving from ~600k to ~1.5M income
Least of your problems. Count your lucky stars, and pay the full price.vrr106 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 1:49 pmYes, I do think that boat has sailed. You probably have looked at a few calculators already and should be looking at a pretty large expected contribution unfortunately:)chipslinger wrote: ↑Sun Mar 10, 2024 12:37 pm but I think that ship has firmly sailed due to non-retirement assets. do folks with more FAFSA experience agree?
- Mon Mar 11, 2024 1:31 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
- Replies: 5210
- Views: 829195
Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
CAPE investors have shot themselves in the foot, since the day CAPE was invented, in 1988.valueinvestor wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:54 pm CAPE investors have shot themselves in the foot, again and again for the last decade and half.
It's been mostly worthless as a "signal" to make changes when investing.
Even Shiller himself doesn't look at just CAPE any more.
- Mon Mar 11, 2024 1:29 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
- Replies: 5210
- Views: 829195
Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Starting CAPE in Jan 2018: 32Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 5:29 pmStarting CAPE in 2010: 20.5valueinvestor wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 5:04 pm Several times it was mentioned that PE expansion is what contributed to the US returns since GFC. Here is one chart that does not support such a claim.
Full Article
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/0 ... t-returns/
Jan 2020 CAPE: 31
This annualizes to over 4%
CAPE today: 34
SP500 in 2018, 2700
SP500 today, 5100.
More than an 100% gain in 6 years (when you include dividends). And NOT explained by valuation expansions.
- Mon Mar 11, 2024 9:48 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: moving from ~600k to ~1.5M income
- Replies: 74
- Views: 11741
Re: moving from ~600k to ~1.5M income
We live in a perfectly fine upper-middle class house in an outer suburb, but we've been toying with the idea of getting a nicer/better located house for a while. Its really hit home to me that my first big RSU grant (before tax) will be ~130% of our house value. Additionally at a ~50% marginal tax rate, half the mortgage interest is subsidized away. at what point do we commit to a "bigger" lifestyle? If the income bump isn't permanent (or at least guaranteed for the next 3-5 years), I wouldn't look for permanent upgrades like a larger more expensive house (with larger more expensive expenses) I would start with discretionary spending that could easily be cut back if necessary. Like spending on more expensive trips, or maybe even ...
- Sun Mar 10, 2024 11:04 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Want to leave the California bay area. Where to live?
- Replies: 63
- Views: 5610
Re: Is Calif Really That Expensive - Or Am I Missing Something?
Umm... fog isn't incomparable.
SF bay hasn't been THAT great every time I've visited.
Now Hawaii or Cancun, every single time I've visited, has been pretty great.
- Sat Mar 09, 2024 5:47 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Is it more advantageous to live in HCOL or LCOL area in terms of financial independence?
- Replies: 185
- Views: 17455
Re: Is it more advantageous to live in HCOL or LCOL area in terms of financial independence?
Old thread, but just for fun, I'd like to compare the professional football team from Kansas City (you might have heard of them) with the teams from New York (yes, technically our stadium is in Kansas City, MO, right across the border, but technically the New York teams play in New Jersey, don't they?)
- Thu Mar 07, 2024 11:03 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Body by Science Workout
- Replies: 244
- Views: 47181
Re: Body by Science Workout
This is a great workout, I raised my bench press from 150 lbs to 310 lbs in 16 weeks, had similar gains on the other exercises. Get your doctor's approval before attempting. Here is a summary of the exercise program: 5 exercises: Bench Press Overhead Press Cable Row Pulldowns Leg Press Make sure you do the exercises with perfect form. Start with weights you can do 15 reps. Do the pulldowns with an underhand grip. On the cable rows and pulldowns, try and pinch your shoulder blades together at the end of each rep. Raise the weight slowly over 10 seconds and lower it slowly over 10 seconds. Do not jerk the weights and do not attempt to lift quickly. Don't rest between exercises. Exercise once per week, 1 set of each exercise. Raise the weight...
- Mon Mar 04, 2024 12:45 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Aggressive savers: Reduce stocks % the closer you are to your target numbers?
- Replies: 32
- Views: 3574
Re: Aggressive savers: Reduce stocks % the closer you are to your target numbers?
Going more conservative as you approach retirement or FI status does make sense.
Stocks are a long-term play.
If you are close to a point where you might quit your job, you need have a good chunk of money in short-term investments for short-term needs.
Stocks are a long-term play.
If you are close to a point where you might quit your job, you need have a good chunk of money in short-term investments for short-term needs.
- Sun Mar 03, 2024 7:18 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)
- Replies: 132
- Views: 15392
Re: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-2742297/PROF-ROBERT-SHILLER-INTERVIEW-How-stocks-crash-2014.html SP 500 had hit 2000 in 2014. Scary new high, with everything considered expensive! Shiller expresses skepticism about the value of forecasting - particularly economic forecasting. He points out that in the past, attempts at forecasting were much more likely to be dismissed as mere opinion. 'One thing I've noticed about history, you can search on newspapers going back hundreds of years, search for "economic forecast", you don't find it. It would be very rare to find it,' he says. 'Why didn't newspapers publish economic forecasts? Well, I think that maybe they had the right attitude. Forecast sounds scientific, righ...
- Sun Mar 03, 2024 1:03 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)
- Replies: 132
- Views: 15392
Re: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)
Just a side note, Greenspan gave his "irrational exuberance" speech in December of 1996, so I start the chart in January 1997. Okay, this is a good point. So, if we're making moves based on Greenspan's comments, then you're right, the chart should start in 1997, which makes the windows wider (One still had to have the willpower and conviction in Greenspan to remain out of the market while it went up 100%, but possible). You also need a good reason to buy back in. Yes, the windows were wider, but valuations remained high even during those windows, and Greenspan never came back and said "Time to buy!", so yes, 5 years later, you could have bought back in, but all the financial heads were talking about the market going eve...
- Sun Mar 03, 2024 11:50 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)
- Replies: 132
- Views: 15392
Re: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)
Here's US Stock Market vs US Bond Market 1996 to today. https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/d/19oIznABwHGE2WO7Jk8nOdx2idOeQ6zm6 Yes, because Bonds did pretty well during this period, there were moments in time where someone who sold in 1996 could make money by holding bonds until the market went down enough to sell the bonds and buy stocks cheaper, and make money by market-timing. But not a LOT of money, and your buy back in periods were limited, so you had to time it pretty well to make a small premium. AND have the discipline to sit out of the market for years and years while it went up over 100% at times. So market-timing possible, yes. Easy no. So no, Greenspan's speech in 1996 was not a useful signal, nor was Buffet's remarks in 2002 or ...
- Sun Mar 03, 2024 11:33 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)
- Replies: 132
- Views: 15392
- Sun Mar 03, 2024 11:32 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)
- Replies: 132
- Views: 15392
Re: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)
Oh, and Buffet made his second comment about derivatives in the 2008 letter, yes... But that was released Feb 27, 2009.
https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2008ltr.pdf
So yeah, a year after the crash had already started, and 1-2 weeks from the very bottom. So selling out then based on Buffet's words would have been pretty terrible.
His 2007 letter did not give any big warnings about derivatives.
https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2007ltr.pdf
https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2008ltr.pdf
So yeah, a year after the crash had already started, and 1-2 weeks from the very bottom. So selling out then based on Buffet's words would have been pretty terrible.
His 2007 letter did not give any big warnings about derivatives.
https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2007ltr.pdf
- Sun Mar 03, 2024 11:23 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)
- Replies: 132
- Views: 15392
Re: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)
As to the original post on Dalio's prediction - I say all opinions are interesting to read and all voices make a market. Do some voices have more weight that others, perhaps, but is Dalio that voice? I say Meh, don't care to worry too much about a professional money manager/hedge fund boss with mixed record. Now, if someone the stature of then Fed chair Alan Greenspan in today's world makes a "irrational exuberance" or Warren Buffett with "weapons of financial mass destruction" comment then I would pay attention. Yes, but even THOSE two were too soon... Greenspan said that in 1996, and the market more than doubled from there. Buying and holding from 1996, and completely ignoring Greenspan still made you rich with great ...
- Sat Mar 02, 2024 10:03 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)
- Replies: 132
- Views: 15392
Re: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)
As to the original post on Dalio's prediction - I say all opinions are interesting to read and all voices make a market. Do some voices have more weight that others, perhaps, but is Dalio that voice? I say Meh, don't care to worry too much about a professional money manager/hedge fund boss with mixed record. Now, if someone the stature of then Fed chair Alan Greenspan in today's world makes a "irrational exuberance" or Warren Buffett with "weapons of financial mass destruction" comment then I would pay attention. Yes, but even THOSE two were too soon... Greenspan said that in 1996, and the market more than doubled from there. Buying and holding from 1996, and completely ignoring Greenspan still made you rich with great ...
- Sat Mar 02, 2024 4:10 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Market Timing = Always Bad?
- Replies: 35
- Views: 4102
Re: Market Timing = Always Bad?
I have a question regarding the dreaded “market timing”. I know, it’s been dragged around routinely as bad, and I certainly get the idea about impulse reactions biting you. My basic situation is this (let me know if I didn't detail something that is important for this question): • I am 60 yrs old and newly retired (6 months) and have my portfolio assembled and allocated. • I have approx 60% stocks and 40% bonds+cash. Total value is approx $3.2 mil. • Stock portion is approx $2 mil. • Included in that portfolio I have a 5 year cash/CD ladder built ($500k at $100 each). OK, since it’s March, I guess I have 4.9yrs. • My bond fund is 6 years of money if it doesn’t crash horribly. • So I have 11 years (5+6) of my budget before touching stocks i...
- Sat Mar 02, 2024 1:48 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)
- Replies: 132
- Views: 15392
Re: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)
Ray Dalio's words aside, I hear of a majority of friends and family holding large sums in MMFs, CDs and HYSAs - perhaps still a bit shell-shocked from 2022, and very few have made any significant moves that I've heard of. I wonder about all of the 'safe cash' out there and how much longer this rally will continue before the masses take notice. Even my younger sibling with potentially 20 years of accumulation remaining has a substantial six-figure sum in a MMF comfortably making well over 5% and while I'm tempted to suggest that she maybe stick her pinky toe back into the water I think it's better for several reasons to let her make that decision herself. Less reason to move money into stocks when one is making 5% on the safe money. Yes, yo...
- Fri Mar 01, 2024 8:19 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)
- Replies: 132
- Views: 15392
Re: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)
Yeah, how do you get -6% last year?trustquestioner wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2024 8:18 pm Last year his flagship fund underperformed VTSAX by like 32%. LOL [expletive removed - moderator Kendall]. And not 32% less return, literally -6% vs. +26%.
- Fri Mar 01, 2024 8:19 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)
- Replies: 132
- Views: 15392
Re: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)
See, this scares me that Ray Dalio DOESN'T think we are in a bubble, because he is always wrong.
So that means we ARE in a bubble!
So that means we ARE in a bubble!
- Fri Mar 01, 2024 5:05 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: The recent surge: stand pat or "sell high?"
- Replies: 54
- Views: 6437
Re: The recent surge: stand pat or "sell high?"
Actually, one of the reasons I like 50/50 for retirement is because there is no math involved. If you start the year with $1 million in stocks and $1 million in bonds, and you're pulling $80,000 a year, just collect all the dividends and interest over the year, and sell the side that is higher to get closer back to 50/50. No math required. If you get $60,000 in interest and dividends over the year, you'll need sell $20,000 worth of investments If stocks are worth $1,100,000 and bonds are worth $970,000, you just sell $20,000 from stocks. If stocks fall to $800,000 and bonds are worth $1,010,000, you just sell $20,000 from bonds. Never have to do any math, just sell from the side that is bigger. Each year you move towards 50/50 by selling th...
- Fri Mar 01, 2024 5:00 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: The recent surge: stand pat or "sell high?"
- Replies: 54
- Views: 6437
Re: The recent surge: stand pat or "sell high?"
Thoughts? I love that I've recouped a lot of what I lost in the 2022 fiasco, but I also know the pitfalls of being greedy. Debating shifting some of my more aggressive stuff over to bonds, where I'm quite light as it is. Are your needs long-term or short-term? When I made my money back in 2010-2011 from the 2008-2009 crash, I didn't change anything and just kept my AA constant. Because I was investing long-term (10+ years) at the time. Right now, I'm pretty close to retirement, so I've been "locking in gains" quite often, by aggressively rebalancing every couple of months or so, when we hit new highs, even slowly changing my AA from 50/50 to 44/56 stocks/bonds, to have that extra 6% in money-markets for the first few years of my ...
- Fri Mar 01, 2024 4:54 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: The recent surge: stand pat or "sell high?"
- Replies: 54
- Views: 6437
Re: The recent surge: stand pat or "sell high?"
If you are 90/10, market goes up 10%, and you are 93/7, rebalance back to 90/10, and at least some of the gains are "locked in". If you are 90/10 and the market goes up 10%, you are not 93/7 but 90.8%/9.2% (assuming the 10% bond allocation didn't change value significantly in that time). Locking in a 10% gain on 0.8% of your portfolio by selling back down to 90% on stock is neglible (an 8 bp "win"). Not a transaction worth bothering with I would think. Someone talking about "selling high" is probably looking to do something more significant/impactful. Math: If your portfolio is $100k and $90k stock $10k bonds and stocks go up 10%, then you have $99k stock and $10k bonds for a total portfolio of $109k (so 90.8%...
- Fri Mar 01, 2024 4:46 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: I want to pay off car using money from Roth IRA
- Replies: 40
- Views: 4469
Re: Do I take out a 7.44% car loan or do I dip into my Roth?
I wish I was educated enough to know if the growth of my Roth is making more than the interest I will be paying on the loan. No one is educated enough to know if your Roth will make more than 7.44% over the life of the loan. Well, let me rephrase. If the money in the Roth is in a money-market making 5%, then we can definitely say it will NOT make more than the interest on the loan. If the money in the Roth is in the stock market, then no one knows. The market could go up 20+% this year, or down 20+% or somewhere in between. If you can pay off the loan fairly quickly (within 12 or 18 months), maybe just do that. Or if your Roth is fairly large (like over $200k, where this just a small portion of it), then withdraw the $17,000 and just pay c...
- Thu Feb 29, 2024 11:19 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: The recent surge: stand pat or "sell high?"
- Replies: 54
- Views: 6437
Re: The recent surge: stand pat or "sell high?"
Thoughts? I love that I've recouped a lot of what I lost in the 2022 fiasco, but I also know the pitfalls of being greedy. Debating shifting some of my more aggressive stuff over to bonds, where I'm quite light as it is. That's the beauty of having a target asset allocation: this happens automatically. It's called rebalancing. This. Just rebalancing alone with no change to your asset allocation lets you lock in some gains. If you are 90/10, market goes up 10%, and you are 93/7, rebalance back to 90/10, and at least some of the gains are "locked in". (Of course, if the market doubles again from here, you'll lose out a bit, but not that much, and if the market crashes next week, you'll have some satisfaction knowing you kept some o...
- Thu Feb 29, 2024 11:17 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: The recent surge: stand pat or "sell high?"
- Replies: 54
- Views: 6437
Re: The recent surge: stand pat or "sell high?"
Thoughts? I love that I've recouped a lot of what I lost in the 2022 fiasco, but I also know the pitfalls of being greedy. Debating shifting some of my more aggressive stuff over to bonds, where I'm quite light as it is. Are your needs long-term or short-term? When I made my money back in 2010-2011 from the 2008-2009 crash, I didn't change anything and just kept my AA constant. Because I was investing long-term (10+ years) at the time. Right now, I'm pretty close to retirement, so I've been "locking in gains" quite often, by aggressively rebalancing every couple of months or so, when we hit new highs, even slowly changing my AA from 50/50 to 44/56 stocks/bonds, to have that extra 6% in money-markets for the first few years of my ...
- Thu Feb 29, 2024 6:50 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Things to do in Minnesota
- Replies: 43
- Views: 3176