Search found 11484 matches

by HomerJ
Thu Oct 18, 2018 12:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: High End Wrist Watches (Gone Crazy)
Replies: 219
Views: 25231

Re: High End Wrist Watches (Gone Crazy)

Seems like there are lot of cool technology watches out there in the $300-$1000 range now that actually DO stuff. I'm curious if people who love watches are more interested in moving towards Garmin or Apple or other watch manufacturers that make fitness/GPS/marine/airplane/etc watches. A guy I know ...
by HomerJ
Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 71
Views: 8550

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

My last comments to explain a few things Homer The problem is that you fail to recognize what I have pointed out repeatedly in many discussions over the years about even DFA funds, you cannot extrapolate from a prospectus because it is written by lawyers to preclude lawsuits and often includes many...
by HomerJ
Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What do you consider 'enough'?
Replies: 65
Views: 6389

Re: What do you consider 'enough'?

Gittes: How much are you worth? Cross: I've no idea. How much do you want? Gittes: I just want to know what you're worth. Over ten million? Cross: Oh my, yes! Gittes: Why are you doing it? How much better can you eat? What can you buy that you can't already afford? Cross: The future, Mr. Gittes - t...
by HomerJ
Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 71
Views: 8550

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

This is from the LENDX prospectus. I don't think I was completely off base. I could still be wrong, but I certainly don't think I was just making stuff up from thin air. Risk of Unsecured Loans. Many of the Fund’s investments are associated with loans that are unsecured obligations of borrowers. Thi...
by HomerJ
Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 71
Views: 8550

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

First, re consumer loans during 2008, which was highest UE in post Depression era, saw losses about double from defaults. So with leverage we estimate fund would have lost about 6-7% or so. Have to remember that even at 10% employment since these are prime only loans they are made to people who are...
by HomerJ
Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What do you consider 'enough'?
Replies: 65
Views: 6389

Re: What do you consider 'enough'?

Edit: misread the question. "Enough" is personal. I would suggest being careful not increase lifestyle creep too much. When you get a raise, save 50% of it, and spend the other 50%. If you get a $5,000 raise, increase your spending $200 a month (Hey that's a lot of fun money), and increase your savi...
by HomerJ
Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "MegaMillions and Powerball jackpots combined are now $1B" - Good investment?
Replies: 55
Views: 2682

Re: "MegaMillions and Powerball jackpots combined are now $1B" - Good investment?

Sportswhiz00 wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 5:18 pm
The amount of pleasure I derive from getting lost in a fantasy about winning is worth way more than $20 to me. I probably spend $50 a month on average on lottery tickets, most often after a bad day at work.
But you should get the exact same amount of fantasy dreaming with one ticket.
by HomerJ
Tue Oct 16, 2018 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "MegaMillions and Powerball jackpots combined are now $1B" - Good investment?
Replies: 55
Views: 2682

Re: "MegaMillions and Powerball jackpots combined are now $1B" - Good investment?

I do't think jackpots are an investment. But $20 for entertainment once in awhile doesn't seem alike a problem to me. The entertainment comes from dreaming how you'd allocate all that money.* You only need one ticket for that. *It would be totally fun to set up a charitable foundation and make givi...
by HomerJ
Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement
Replies: 107
Views: 12151

Re: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement

MnD wrote:
Sat Sep 29, 2018 6:34 pm
Working more years, saving more, spending less to overcompensate beyond the worst series in history is not anything resembling a win-win in my book. More like locking in a horribly bad sequence of returns retirement plan from Day 1 of retirement before you even experience one.
And this.
by HomerJ
Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement
Replies: 107
Views: 12151

Re: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement

When looking at the various models the results are often stated in the odds of success, failure or even broke like this model. For most people "failure" would mean something like having to reduce their spending by 20% when they are in their 70 which might not be fun but would usually be a long way ...
by HomerJ
Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement
Replies: 107
Views: 12151

Re: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement

The "4% SWR is bleeding edge risky especially if you retire early" crowd isn't going to like this tool. Well I’m a proud, card-carrying member of that crowd and I think the tool itself probably works well and is gorgeous. The problem is the dataset used by the tool to make important life decisions:...
by HomerJ
Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ally Banking 1% extra back up to $1,000 on new money deposited
Replies: 187
Views: 13836

Re: Ally Banking 1% extra back up to $1,000 on new money deposited

What's the risk here?

I can't figure out why Ally is just throwing away money. 1/15/19 seems like an awfully short amount of time.

If Ally goes bankrupt, we're covered by FDIC, correct?
by HomerJ
Mon Oct 15, 2018 9:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: trip to Grand Cayman & dieting [while on vacation]
Replies: 40
Views: 2625

Re: trip to Grand Cayman & dieting

My best advice is to use the good weather and pleasant surroundings to up your activity level, rather than worrying too much about your food consumption. We go on cruises fairly often, and that works for me. For instance, we always go for a mile walk on the Promenade Deck after dinner. Good advice....
by HomerJ
Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Muscular Portfolios Questions
Replies: 9
Views: 1042

Re: Muscular Portfolios Questions

Good Evening: I am new to Bogleheads.org. I recently purchased Brian Livingston's book titled "Muscular Portfolios." I find Brian's Muscular Portfolio investing approach very interesting; however, I have two questions regarding his approach: (1) Is the Muscular Portfolio investing approach appropri...
by HomerJ
Mon Oct 15, 2018 4:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: trip to Grand Cayman & dieting [while on vacation]
Replies: 40
Views: 2625

Re: trip to Grand Cayman & dieting

Cycle wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 4:47 pm
anyone else having liver and onions for dinner tonight? :sharebeer
You're not helping your case at all. :)
by HomerJ
Mon Oct 15, 2018 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 71
Views: 8550

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

I don’t know of any specific “test”. All those strategies have been present for a very long time. They’ve been done by banks and hedge funds. Just now open to the public. Certainly always worry that investable by public is a bad sign. It's certainly not a good sign. Once a strategy is released to t...
by HomerJ
Mon Oct 15, 2018 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Term Bond yield over 3%
Replies: 74
Views: 10068

Re: Short Term Bond yield over 3%

I know CD ladders can be unpopular here, but I am amazed at the current numbers. 3% for the 2 year through Fidelity! https://fixedincome.fidelity.com/ftgw/fi/FILanding#tbcds|treasury|cd-new-issue It seems that a CD-ladder would be better than a short-term bond fund. Shorter duration, same interest ...
by HomerJ
Mon Oct 15, 2018 11:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: trip to Grand Cayman & dieting [while on vacation]
Replies: 40
Views: 2625

Re: trip to Grand Cayman & dieting

Consult a Registered Dietitian, not a bunch of people on the internet who are interested in personal finance and investing. Seriously, would you consult a Registered Dietitian on how to allocate your 401k? We tell people not to consult "registered" financial advisers on this site as well :) There's...
by HomerJ
Mon Oct 15, 2018 11:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: trip to Grand Cayman & dieting [while on vacation]
Replies: 40
Views: 2625

Re: trip to Grand Cayman & dieting

daheld wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 7:44 am
Consult a Registered Dietitian, not a bunch of people on the internet who are interested in personal finance and investing.

Seriously, would you consult a Registered Dietitian on how to allocate your 401k?
We tell people not to consult "registered" financial advisers on this site as well :)
by HomerJ
Mon Oct 15, 2018 11:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: trip to Grand Cayman & dieting [while on vacation]
Replies: 40
Views: 2625

Re: trip to Grand Cayman & dieting

I have recently discovered the secret to weight loss.... for me. Eating slow. So, I eat what I want, but I take a bite, put down the fork, wait a minute or two, take another bite. 20 minutes later, I feel full, and I enjoyed the taste of good food for the entire 20 minutes. I've dieted before, but i...
by HomerJ
Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 187
Views: 14222

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

I have not run the scenario, so take this as hear say, but i recall reading somewhere that many of the failure cases for the ex-US is driven by countries that were reduced to rubble during the WW1 and/or WW2. I recall that discussion saying if you excluded those scenarios, the gap between US and ex...
by HomerJ
Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 187
Views: 14222

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

I have not run the scenario, so take this as hear say, but i recall reading somewhere that many of the failure cases for the ex-US is driven by countries that were reduced to rubble during the WW1 and/or WW2. I recall that discussion saying if you excluded those scenarios, the gap between US and ex...
by HomerJ
Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 71
Views: 8550

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

Evaluating where you currently are relative to your goals after this long bull market and cooling off the asset allocation is not market timing; it is rational assessment of your need to take risk and acting appropriately. This is true. As one gets closer to retirement, one probably should go more ...
by HomerJ
Sun Oct 14, 2018 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 187
Views: 14222

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

It seems as if people want a plan of withdrawal that is safe and is not subject to change and that it will last their entire retirement. What I would call set it and forget it. If only there were a financial product people could buy using a fixed amount of money up front that would provide a guaran...
by HomerJ
Sun Oct 14, 2018 12:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who worries about a bear market in stocks?
Replies: 71
Views: 5649

Re: Who worries about a bear market in stocks?

Carol88888 wrote:
Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:24 pm
Stocks far outperform bonds in each 20 year period. I think I've got 20 years or more (I hope) so it seems rational for me to be all in stocks.
Stocks out performed in the past. It's quite probable they will in the future. But it's not guaranteed. You act like stocks are risk-free.
by HomerJ
Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who worries about a bear market in stocks?
Replies: 71
Views: 5649

Re: Who worries about a bear market in stocks?

Sorry for those who haven't heard Bill Bernstein's advice "If you've won the game, then stop playing." Translated: if you've saved enough to support a reasonable lifestyle, then get out of stocks and eliminate that risk. In my opinion, the goal of saving and investing is to get to the point where y...
by HomerJ
Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who worries about a bear market in stocks?
Replies: 71
Views: 5649

Re: Who worries about a bear market in stocks?

In my view, those who have accumulated enough savings to retire comfortably should follow William Bernstein's advice to get out of stocks. Stocks can be counted on only as a long term investment asset. You should be prepared to hold for 15-20 years without liquidating before you should be willing t...
by HomerJ
Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who worries about a bear market in stocks?
Replies: 71
Views: 5649

Re: Who worries about a bear market in stocks?

There are three groups of stock investors: 1) Young investors with a long time horizon until retirement. They don't have to worry about a bear market because they should have a large allocation to stocks and a bear market gives them the opportunity to buy more shares at lower prices. 2) Older inves...
by HomerJ
Sat Oct 13, 2018 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 187
Views: 14222

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

5% of a 100% stocks portfolio will last forever, and the average annual $ withdrawal will keep up with inflation, together of course with the annual portfolio balance keeping up with inflation, forever. This is incorrect. During the Great Depression you have gone bankrupt. I.e you can hand over a p...
by HomerJ
Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will you backup the truck on stocks
Replies: 95
Views: 8243

Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

I recently retired at a 55/45 allocation. My IPS calls for +/-5% rebalancing bands and to rebalance to 60/40 by the time I'm eligible for SS, but I have been considering adding a back up the truck rule. I like the idea of increasing my equity exposure if Schiller CAPE goes below 20. I will have to ...
by HomerJ
Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will you backup the truck on stocks
Replies: 95
Views: 8243

Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

I am not fragile financially, but I considered it an act of resolve to not sell back then and to keep my DCA investing going. No way was I going to go "all in." Kudos to those that can do that, but it's one thing to say it, and another to do it when you're surrounded by people being laid off, you'r...
by HomerJ
Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will you backup the truck on stocks
Replies: 95
Views: 8243

Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

I glanced at the threads and there were many people who were holding tight, others who were just continuing to do what they had always done, DCA into their retirement plans, but I don't see too many people who were optimistic about the future. I was 66/33 stocks/bonds in 2008. I rebalanced into sto...
by HomerJ
Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will you backup the truck on stocks
Replies: 95
Views: 8243

Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Today is what I call a real sell off day, but not something that would make me break open the cash reserves and plung in. I have some reserves that I have earmarked for purchasing 5% more equities in case of a serious sell off. This isn't a regular re-balancing to your IPS or sleeping point plan. T...
by HomerJ
Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will you backup the truck on stocks
Replies: 95
Views: 8243

Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Today is what I call a real sell off day, but not something that would make me break open the cash reserves and plung in. I have some reserves that I have earmarked for purchasing 5% more equities in case of a serious sell off. This isn't a regular re-balancing to your IPS or sleeping point plan. T...
by HomerJ
Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the Boglehead ever see a unique opportunity for investment?
Replies: 17
Views: 1752

Re: Does the Boglehead ever see a unique opportunity for investment?

A Boglehead friend of mine decided to put 5% of his port into BAC when it's stock price went below $1/share at the bottom of the 2008 financial crisis. I almost did too. Price of BAC today = 29.98 a "thirty bagger". When did BAC ever go below $1/share? The reason I ask is that I bought BAC at what ...
by HomerJ
Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the Boglehead ever see a unique opportunity for investment?
Replies: 17
Views: 1752

Re: Does the Boglehead ever see a unique opportunity for investment?

However, that does not mean isolated opportunities do not exist. Of course opportunities exist. But they are hard to find and they are bets - the results can go both ways. I had a friend make a bet on Ford during the last crash. He bought three times on the way down. He did pretty well (on the last...
by HomerJ
Tue Oct 09, 2018 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 187
Views: 14222

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

livesoft wrote:
Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:07 pm
^15 more years of living gives one a different perspective on life and maybe some added maturity, so that one wouldn't worry as much about SWR.
Or maybe one would worry more. I know a lot of dumb 45 year-olds who haven't planned for the future.
by HomerJ
Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?
Replies: 129
Views: 14747

Re: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?

400K is equivalent to how many years of savings. Aka, it will take you how many years to recover that money. Except... you still own the shares. You don't really have to save the money again, assuming the stock market bounces back in a few years. That's a big assumption, but so far that's the patte...
by HomerJ
Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 187
Views: 14222

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

Why would I be wrong in my opinion that 2% is the max perpetual SWR for early retirement? I understand that there's a chance that I may accumulate significant assets over time. I'd rather do that than risk running out of money. Anyone else think this way? You wouldn't be wrong. But you'll have to w...
by HomerJ
Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter
Replies: 82
Views: 6283

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter

Only problem is, those forecasts have not materialized into actual results. Valuation can be cheaper and continue to remain cheap, and that is for a reason. Investors are willing to pay a premium for US corporations, many of them are actually more economically sound than some of the entire countrie...
by HomerJ
Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Evaluate net worth - FIRE really that close?
Replies: 56
Views: 7631

Re: Evaluate net worth - FIRE really that close?

If there's zero science to 4%, then there's zero science to assuming 0% real returns (and therefore 3.3% withdrawals). If we're making numbers up from thin air, then you are as well. Wrong: apples, oranges. The 4% Rule posited by the "experts" (rhetorical quotes for laughter) is couched in "economi...
by HomerJ
Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 187
Views: 14222

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

Do you have a crystal ball that tells you how long you will live? Of course not, but when I am 60, I can say I won't live to 70 more years. And when I am 100, I can say I won't live 30 more years. But when I am 45, what can I say? You range was 10-25, with very different numbers (10% withdrawals or...
by HomerJ
Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Evaluate net worth - FIRE really that close?
Replies: 56
Views: 7631

Re: Evaluate net worth - FIRE really that close?

And at what age are we talking about? One could just about guarantee 30 years of 4% inflation adjusted withdrawals with TIPS and 25x expenses. Annuities purchased at the trailing years could guarantee much of it through remaining life. I can understand not wanting to rely on the idea that future re...
by HomerJ
Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 187
Views: 14222

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

I don't understand how the people who say the SWR studies based on past data should not be used to make any plans about the future, then go and say that a slightly lower SWR is fine/reasonable. What are you basing that lower number on? How do you know 3%, 2% (or even 1%) will work if you discount a...
by HomerJ
Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 187
Views: 14222

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

Very detailed blog post by the "Mad Fientist". Safe Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees The 4% rule is actually very safe for a 30-year retirement Was not is. The problem is figuring out how much the future will resemble the past. Note that 4% is for the WORST case scenarios. Normal times in the pas...
by HomerJ
Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early Retirement Allocation
Replies: 24
Views: 2858

Re: Early Retirement Allocation

We live on both of our Social Security checks and my wife's Retirement Plan. That pays all the bills. You're not really "early" retired if you're collecting Social Security. And you're 2 years from RMDs. :) When you say "wife's retirement plan, do you mean a pension? Or withdrawals from her retirem...
by HomerJ
Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Evaluate net worth - FIRE really that close?
Replies: 56
Views: 7631

Re: Evaluate net worth - FIRE really that close?

we do not need to choose in a false dichotomy between a) believing the next 30-40 years' market returns will fall within the ranges experienced in America in the 20th century Safe withdrawal rates in the past were 4%-8% Most of us are going with 4%, with the ability to cut back if necessary. That i...