Search found 11363 matches

by HomerJ
Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Global Warming And Reinsurance
Replies: 55
Views: 2415

Re: Larry Swedroe: Global Warming And Reinsurance

Costs are certain and many of the advantages of my approach are only potential. That being said, I think it’s important that TSMers drink their Kool-Aid with eyes as wide open as possible. What are they trading off in exchange for ultra low expense ratio? Are they lacking diversification? Are they ...
by HomerJ
Fri Sep 21, 2018 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 47
Views: 2332

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

Also, CAPE has not been above its long term average since 1992. For about one month in March 2009, it was below its long term average. 8-) yeah 1 month out of 312... Seriously man, come on. The metric’s failure to mean-revert over the last 23 years hasn’t been for a lack of reasons. The period cove...
by HomerJ
Fri Sep 21, 2018 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 47
Views: 2332

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

letsgobobby wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:29 pm
As for forward earnings, I'll trust them when someone can tell me the temperature next week Friday at noon with any degree of certainty.
Do you really believe the last 10 years of next week Friday at noon temperatures will tell you exactly about next week Friday at noon temperatures?
by HomerJ
Fri Sep 21, 2018 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Global Warming And Reinsurance
Replies: 55
Views: 2415

Re: Larry Swedroe: Global Warming And Reinsurance

I have spoken with a re-insurance fund manager whose forward expectations for pre-fee returns of 3 to 5%. He was actually leaving the market because of this low rate of return. Add in the cost to access this market of 2% and you are left with 1 to 3%. IMO to expect equity returns (6 to 7%) here bas...
by HomerJ
Fri Sep 21, 2018 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Global Warming And Reinsurance
Replies: 55
Views: 2415

Re: Larry Swedroe: Global Warming And Reinsurance

Above Nisiprius comments on the interval fund structure and associated lack of daily liquidity. We should appreciate the positive side of this, that there is an expected liquidity premium for the investor. Dave Sorry Dave, I absolutely refuse to invest in anything that isn't even transparent enough...
by HomerJ
Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 47
Views: 2332

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

My point with this thread was merely to illustrate that the idea that 'valuations are high' is not true of all valuation metrics. CAPE appears to be high, but more 'current' metrics do not appear to be high. CAPE 8, by the way, is nearly 5 points lower than CAPE 10 (because you get to drop off 2008...
by HomerJ
Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Global Warming And Reinsurance
Replies: 55
Views: 2415

Re: Larry Swedroe: Global Warming And Reinsurance

How come morningstar doesn't list SRRIX? Where can one find a historical return chart?
by HomerJ
Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Global Warming And Reinsurance
Replies: 55
Views: 2415

Re: Larry Swedroe: Global Warming And Reinsurance

Random Walker wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 7:39 am
Perhaps surprising to some, there has been no increase in the frequency of land falling hurricanes over the last 167 years.
I think there might be more buildings today on the coast than there were 167 years ago, however.

And the hanging around and dumping 40 inches of rain seems new.
by HomerJ
Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Shiller interview: "Market could get a lot higher"
Replies: 28
Views: 4372

Re: Robert Shiller interview: "Market could get a lot higher"

I heard him on YouTube the other day, and the main point he made regarding this, was that in 1996 pundits were saying we've had the longest bull run ever in history and it was about to crash and then the bull run continued for another 4 years. He also mentioned that the various ratios/markers are v...
by HomerJ
Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there such thing as saving TOO much?
Replies: 78
Views: 6666

Re: Is there such thing as saving TOO much?

So Far this year, I've saved roughly 26k...and I've made about 38k... How? I would've expected taxes to cut that $38k to $30k. You've lived nearly nine months on $4k? (1) He might mean he brings home $38k (2) You are WAY off on income taxes for people making $38k. It's far closer to 0% than 21% (3)...
by HomerJ
Tue Sep 18, 2018 9:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Considering Quitting Job - Seeking Advice. Would you do it?
Replies: 131
Views: 8537

Re: Considering Quitting Job - Seeking Advice. Would you do it?

Retiring =/ Quitting. Yeah, that's like winning the race, running through the tape, and then you keep on running around the track because you don't want to be a "quitter". The OP has WON... He's worked hard, and he's won the race. :) And of course, the OP doesn't have to retire... Take a few months...
by HomerJ
Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Whole Life vs Universal Life Insurance
Replies: 30
Views: 1575

Re: Whole Life vs Universal Life Insurance

cmauss... Life insurance is not a good investment. The fees are large and hidden. Buy life insurance like you buy car insurance, and hope you never have to use it. If you were planning on spending $500 a month on whole life, instead spend $50 a month on 20-year or 30-year term-life and invest the ot...
by HomerJ
Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Whole Life vs Universal Life Insurance
Replies: 30
Views: 1575

Re: Whole Life vs Universal Life Insurance

I am 29, and want to start a life insurance policy. I am attracted to the permanent plans, as they can actually pay back. I am trying to decided if I should go with whole life or Universal. From reading it seems like whole life usually offers some good dividens that can be reinvested, but universal...
by HomerJ
Mon Sep 17, 2018 12:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Considering Quitting Job - Seeking Advice. Would you do it?
Replies: 131
Views: 8537

Re: Considering Quitting Job - Seeking Advice. Would you do it?

I am guilty of worrying too much about the downside…..it’s a round-about way of being protective of my kids, I guess. For the past 4 years, you've abandoned your kids. Don't waste any more time on this company. This company does not love you. Your wife and kids love you. You don't want to be known ...
by HomerJ
Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: (No Savings) *Everything* in S&P 500?
Replies: 33
Views: 3763

Re: What if: *Everything* in S&P?

My reasoning over this time period was that if Warren Buffett feels comfortable with this strategy for his billions of dollars, then I should be just fine. That is dangerous reasoning. Losing 50% or even 90% of billions changes nothing for Warren Buffet, and he can't lose his job. You losing 50% of...
by HomerJ
Sat Sep 15, 2018 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations
Replies: 53
Views: 6038

Re: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations

Valuations don't matter. Years to retirement matter. Since I'm 5 years away, I'm 50/50 stocks/bonds. It would be difficult for my portfolio to be cut in half at this point (although still possible). Note I would be 50/50 even if valuations were "normal" or "low". Because the risk of a crash is neve...
by HomerJ
Sat Sep 15, 2018 10:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Boglehead is anti-entrepreneur?
Replies: 62
Views: 3881

Re: The Boglehead is anti-entrepreneur?

I told a former colleague I used the BH forums and his response was “Yeah, they don’t like our tribe.” What he meant was we believed in taking risk. He built and sold a company: I had 80% of my NW tied to my company stock for more than 15 years. Both of us had borrowed heavily at times to maximize ...
by HomerJ
Sat Sep 15, 2018 8:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Boglehead is anti-entrepreneur?
Replies: 62
Views: 3881

Re: The Boglehead is anti-entrepreneur?

I told a former colleague I used the BH forums and his response was “Yeah, they don’t like our tribe.” What he meant was we believed in taking risk. He built and sold a company: I had 80% of my NW tied to my company stock for more than 15 years. Both of us had borrowed heavily at times to maximize ...
by HomerJ
Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When to Retire
Replies: 48
Views: 6643

Re: When to Retire

I am struggling with this right now. I have a stressful job with a gov agency, dealing with parents of disabled children. Been doing this for nearly 28 years; never thought it would get old. All of a sudden (I'm 65) I'm finding myself not caring all that much; very much NOT a good feeling. Any wisd...
by HomerJ
Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When to Retire
Replies: 48
Views: 6643

Re: When to Retire

jehovasfitness wrote:
Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:30 pm
Someone bumped a 7 yr old thread. Whatever happened?
Yeah, the fact that I once watched a TJ Hooker rerun needs to stay lost on the Internet, not brought to the front page again.
by HomerJ
Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vacation house? Need objective third party
Replies: 66
Views: 5562

Re: Vacation house? Need objective third party

unless its under 2.5hr drive each way, rent. Generally solid advice although not always practical. Our first vacation home was a lake house about 2 hours from the city. Used almost every weekend to “wind down” from our intense jobs. Still love it after 21 years. Once we retired though we wanted oth...
by HomerJ
Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5106

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

The research used and/or published by firms like AQR, DFA, and Vanguard is rigorous in every conceivable way. Informed skepticism is fine, but attacks along the lines of "anything I don't understand is wrong until I understand it" don't really advance the discussion. Economics is not a real science...
by HomerJ
Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5106

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

So when learn something new, or have new developments I adopted to the change in circumstances. So I don't see any inconsistency here. That's all well and good. So what happens if you learn something new or there are new developments with these alt-funds? What if you learn these things AFTER years ...
by HomerJ
Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5106

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

The research used and/or published by firms like AQR, DFA, and Vanguard is rigorous in every conceivable way. Informed skepticism is fine, but attacks along the lines of "anything I don't understand is wrong until I understand it" don't really advance the discussion. Economics is not a real science...
by HomerJ
Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vacation house? Need objective third party
Replies: 66
Views: 5562

Re: Vacation house? Need objective third party

I don’t see the appeal. Rent for a month on the lake. Yes, it is a personal thing. Many people don’t see the “appeal” but many others do. Going back to a place you control and is always available appeals to some people. Your clothes in the closets, your boat at the dock, your furnishings and art. M...
by HomerJ
Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vacation house? Need objective third party
Replies: 66
Views: 5562

Re: Vacation house? Need objective third party

Why -- in this specific circumstance? Why is it a financially irresponsible step to pay 2% of your gross income per month for a piece of property that provides wonderful family memories and is likely appreciating in value anyway and keep the remainder of your funds in the market? For people who mak...
by HomerJ
Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vacation house? Need objective third party
Replies: 66
Views: 5562

Re: Vacation house? Need objective third party

That's another thing about people making $1.5 million -- if you are lucky enough to make that salary at any point in your career, the chances are extremely high that you have a very specialized skillset or knowledge that justifies the salary and makes you competitive for that salary in the marketpl...
by HomerJ
Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vacation house? Need objective third party
Replies: 66
Views: 5562

Re: Vacation house? Need objective third party

OP here. Thanks for the thoughtful responses. This level of income is new--within the last two years. Moved from gov't to private practice on the partnership level, so while this level of income is not totally guaranteed, it is relatively safe, and it seems that husband's income is likely to go up ...
by HomerJ
Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Benchmark Smoke And Mirrors
Replies: 14
Views: 1141

Re: Larry Swedroe: Benchmark Smoke And Mirrors

This is why I believe benchmarking a beast like QSPIX is almost a silly endeavor. It is it’s own thing. And the investor either appreciates that it is accessing its factors and asset classes in a formulaic, passive, transparent fashion, or he doesn’t. Is it transparent? Cliff Asness is a total geni...
by HomerJ
Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Taxes in retirement too good to be true?
Replies: 23
Views: 4344

Re: Taxes in retirement too good to be true?

livesoft wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:38 pm
Property taxes don't go away just because you have paid off the mortgage. Neither does property insurance.
But you can live anywhere once you no longer have a job.
by HomerJ
Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous
Replies: 152
Views: 16562

Re: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous

Um, did your 50-50 guy wait (e.g. time the market) to "rebalance" until after the full 50% decline? Sure, I rebalanced perfectly, just like your 2015 guy switched to 100% stocks perfectly. It's all stupid made-up numbers anyway. In theory, theory works in practice. In practice, it doesn't. Edit: Ac...
by HomerJ
Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous
Replies: 152
Views: 16562

Re: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous

One of my "clues" came from another thread on this site. People were really lecturing a commenter who came on this site around 2015 announcing they pulled out of the stock market because of high valuations. More recently, someone reposted the thread and lots of "experts" jumped in to give this lost...
by HomerJ
Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vacation house? Need objective third party
Replies: 66
Views: 5562

Re: Vacation house? Need objective third party

Because your income is so high, I'd expect you to buy this vacation home in cash. Also, I'd expect you to have your primary home paid off before you buy a vacation home in cash. So, basically, you need to save up around 1 million dollars IMO to buy this home which should not be a big deal given tha...
by HomerJ
Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vacation house? Need objective third party
Replies: 66
Views: 5562

Re: Vacation house? Need objective third party

My spouse and I are considering purchasing a vacation house. We are both 45, two kids in elementary school, have a HHI of $1.5M, own a home worth about $1.2M ($500K left in 15-year mortgage, 12 years left), and have about $1.5M in retirement, $250K for two kids' college funds to which we are still ...
by HomerJ
Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous
Replies: 152
Views: 16562

Re: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous

One of my "clues" came from another thread on this site. People were really lecturing a commenter who came on this site around 2015 announcing they pulled out of the stock market because of high valuations. More recently, someone reposted the thread and lots of "experts" jumped in to give this lost...
by HomerJ
Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Go to Istanbul next week. Any suggestions
Replies: 49
Views: 3540

Re: Go to Istanbul next week. Any suggestions

When travel in crowded public transportation I keep right hand in the right pocket, and the other I use for support. I do this same thing... I keep my wallet in my front pocket, and whenever I'm in a crowd, I keep my hand in that pocket... Pretty hard to pickpocket a pocket with a hand in it.... :)
by HomerJ
Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Go to Istanbul next week. Any suggestions
Replies: 49
Views: 3540

Re: Go to Istanbul next week. Any suggestions

Starfish wrote:
Mon Sep 10, 2018 5:40 pm
WhiteMaxima wrote:
Mon Sep 10, 2018 5:36 pm
Rick Steve's safe belt? And leave passport and wallet in the hotel safe?
Duh?

PS: safe is good but you don't really need one either.
So where you keep your money and your passport when traveling?
by HomerJ
Mon Sep 10, 2018 5:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Go to Istanbul next week. Any suggestions
Replies: 49
Views: 3540

Re: Go to Istanbul next week. Any suggestions

I love all this travel topics where from about second/third post you start reading the the links the travel advisories and "don't go is dangerous'". And all these coming from people living in the most dangerous country in the industrialized world. Also, I would guess, people who do not travel much ...
by HomerJ
Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Go to Istanbul next week. Any suggestions
Replies: 49
Views: 3540

Re: Go to Istanbul next week. Any suggestions

Valuethinker wrote:
Mon Sep 10, 2018 5:15 am
I had a friend who had his tea spiked in a carpet shop - luckily he only lost his wallet (there have been worse stories)
Like knocked out drugged? Yikes. That seems worse than just getting pick-pocketed or even threatened with a gun or a knife.
by HomerJ
Sun Sep 09, 2018 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lower Return Decade Says Jack: Thoughts?
Replies: 81
Views: 6528

Re: Lower Return Decade Says Jack: Thoughts?

Just read Jack Bogle's book (edited in 2017) and was a little discouraged about his comments that we should all expect lower returns in the next decade. For a 60/40 balanced fund it could be as low as 6% and even 4% in some circumstances. Am I misreading? Because if not, Id rather be in CDs and tak...
by HomerJ
Sun Sep 09, 2018 6:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Go to Istanbul next week. Any suggestions
Replies: 49
Views: 3540

Re: Go to Istanbul next week. Any suggestions

I agree everyone in Turkey was very friendly... except for the taxi drivers (okay one taxi driver) Our guide told us what was fair for getting back to our hotel. Taxi driver demanded twice as much, I mentioned the price she told me, he said "F*** off, get out of my cab". I expected some haggling, bu...
by HomerJ
Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Bonds to boost returns?
Replies: 61
Views: 6384

Re: 100% Bonds to boost returns?

Long term returns are based on the fundamentals of the investment and expected return can be estimated reasonably. By mathematical law, what you pay for an investment affects your return expectation. Even the most hard-core CAPE people try to soften their statements with "only 40% predictive". But ...
by HomerJ
Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Go to Istanbul next week. Any suggestions
Replies: 49
Views: 3540

Re: Go to Istanbul next week. Any suggestions

Will visit this Euro-Asian city. Any suggestions. Where to exchange Turkish Lira? Thanx. I read really good advices on places to visit. I'd add Chora Church. I second Chora Church. The Muslims put plaster over all the frescoes in that church hundreds of years back, when they conquered the city, whi...
by HomerJ
Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Go to Istanbul next week. Any suggestions
Replies: 49
Views: 3540

Re: Go to Istanbul next week. Any suggestions

Have a baked potato, waffles, or some ice cream at Ortokay.

Not your father's baked potato.

https://www.tripadvisor.com/Attraction_ ... anbul.html
by HomerJ
Wed Sep 05, 2018 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Bonds to boost returns?
Replies: 61
Views: 6384

Re: 100% Bonds to boost returns?

Expected returns are the reason you invest in stocks in the first place. I'm just describing where those return expectations currently stand. The economic fundamentals of US equities are such that they are mathematically likely to return less than bonds over the next 10 years. The math could be wro...
by HomerJ
Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What will you do when you find you have more money than expected?
Replies: 91
Views: 9670

Re: What will you do when you find you have more money than expected?

Pay for my grandkids college.

Fly business class.

Take the whole extended family on vacations (but they can all ride back in coach).

If the portfolio is STILL growing past that, and I'm pretty old, start giving it away to charities and the kids BEFORE I die.
by HomerJ
Tue Sep 04, 2018 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it make sense to invest in individual stocks (like Kanye West) if you stick to what you know?
Replies: 110
Views: 5546

Re: Does it make sense to invest in individual stocks (like Kanye West) if you stick to what you know?

I wonder if anyone even read the linked article and understtod the context before replying. Kanye West invested $300,000 and it outperformed the market for a tiny 1 year period! Here we have a 2 page thread discussing it. First, 300K is so inconsequential to someone like Kanye West, he can lose all...
by HomerJ
Tue Sep 04, 2018 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it make sense to invest in individual stocks (like Kanye West) if you stick to what you know?
Replies: 110
Views: 5546

Re: Does it make sense to invest in individual stocks if you stick to what you know?

I guess the general theme is that we should settle for mediocre 7% returns?I'll pass. I'm not sure why you bother with this board. The general theme indeed to is to get rich slowly off solid 7% real (10% nominal) long-term stock market returns. We know you're all about getting rich quick, so why do...
by HomerJ
Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it make sense to invest in individual stocks (like Kanye West) if you stick to what you know?
Replies: 110
Views: 5546

Re: Does it make sense to invest in individual stocks (like Kanye West) if you stick to what you know?

You can love a company's product, and the company can still be bad at making money. We own multiple storage appliances (from one vendor) at my company that we LOVE. Solid performance, easy to use, great metrics, a dream storage appliance for our IT department. We like it so much we have 70% of our v...