Search found 12628 matches

by HomerJ
Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 708
Views: 42512

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Using the same logic, what is ensuring that B&H indexing is always going to be the best strategy? No one says B&H is going to the best strategy. It almost certainly won't be. B&H is the default strategy. You get the market return. The ups and the downs, and the long-term return, no matter what it m...
by HomerJ
Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 708
Views: 42512

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Got it. For what its worth, you certainly sound intelligent, persistent and patient enough to see this through... If UER+momentum has sufficient predictive power, you will achieve your goal. It's just math. I'll be rooting for you, CraigTester Sure, if. Of course, it's just math, but the "sufficien...
by HomerJ
Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 420
Views: 35935

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

A lot of landlord tenant codes and legalities favor tenants and make it very hard for landlords to do business. Also opens landlords to lawsuits and so forth. That is an ongoing risk that landlords face. HOAs in condominium complexes and subdivisions, for instance, potentially can and have suddenly...
by HomerJ
Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 420
Views: 35935

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

the two SFHs I bought a little over a year ago have already appreciated 5% to 10% looking at comparables. It is completely reasonable to estimate that the house could appreciate about 25% in 5 years because of rent growth, which means doubling my initial investment in 5 years. I don't think stock m...
by HomerJ
Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 420
Views: 35935

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Per your request.... https://www.bayareamarketreports.com/trend/3-recessions-2-bubbles-and-a-baby I see a graph going up almost continuously, and in very few years staying constant. Absolutely no boom bust in the general acceptance of the expression. What am I supposed to see? BTW that is the entir...
by HomerJ
Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 708
Views: 42512

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Got it. For what its worth, you certainly sound intelligent, persistent and patient enough to see this through... If UER+momentum has sufficient predictive power, you will achieve your goal. It's just math. I'll be rooting for you, CraigTester Sure, if. Of course, it's just math, but the "sufficien...
by HomerJ
Mon Jun 17, 2019 4:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should we retire in 4 years?
Replies: 31
Views: 3642

Re: Should we retire in 4 years?

Does the $45k expenses include health insurance? For example for DW and me, age 54 and 52, ACA insurance is $28k, and has a $4k deductible. So we're looking at $32k min for healthcare alone! If we can get our income down below about $65k per year, that drops to about $7k per year with a subsidy. Ha...
by HomerJ
Mon Jun 17, 2019 4:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should we retire in 4 years?
Replies: 31
Views: 3642

Re: Should we retire in 4 years?

You could probably retire today.

I assume you have around $1 million and spend $45k a year. Only 15 years until you can get enough SS to cover that easily and then some.

So the $1 million only has to last 15 years or so. Easy peasy lemon squeasy
by HomerJ
Mon Jun 17, 2019 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads vs Hedgefunds [or vs. venture capital]
Replies: 31
Views: 2058

Re: Bogleheads vs Venture Capital

urizaf wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2019 3:35 pm
No there is no such thing. I guess this is the wrong forum to ask
I just didn't understand the question that's all. Can you be more specific?
by HomerJ
Mon Jun 17, 2019 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads vs Hedgefunds [or vs. venture capital]
Replies: 31
Views: 2058

Re: Bogleheads vs Venture Capital

urizaf wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2019 2:53 pm
What do bogleheads think about venture capitalists?
We, um, like venture capitalists?

Is this an investing question? Is someone asking you invest in a venture capitalist fund?

Is there such a thing? If so, run away.
by HomerJ
Mon Jun 17, 2019 3:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recommendation for light beer.
Replies: 41
Views: 2378

Re: Recommendation for light beer.

Shallowpockets wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2019 3:07 pm
I am drinking my regular ABV craft beer whilst you may be drinking three to my one.
Which means I'm having three times more fun, right? :sharebeer
by HomerJ
Mon Jun 17, 2019 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 708
Views: 42512

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

If UER+Momentum can “ guarantee" what will will happen next in the market, then you’re bullet proof with your strategy. However, if UER+Momentum is only “right" something less than 100% of the time, this is where the trouble begins…. Well, it was just wrong in December, so we know it's not 100%. I ...
by HomerJ
Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So much for financial predictions, eh?
Replies: 46
Views: 4151

Re: So much for financial predictions, eh?

Hi. This graph is certainly interesting and shows how much expectations of "experts" have deviated from reality. However, there is a flaw with this sort of poll. Just because the "best guess" of everyone was not correct, does not mean that their analysis was bad. A reasonable economist would submit...
by HomerJ
Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So much for financial predictions, eh?
Replies: 46
Views: 4151

Re: So much for financial predictions, eh?

rh00p wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:39 am
"The future ain't what it used to be."
~Yogi Berra
"It's tough to make predictions. Especially about the future"

-Yogi Berra (or maybe Neils Bohr)
by HomerJ
Mon Jun 17, 2019 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So much for financial predictions, eh?
Replies: 46
Views: 4151

Re: So much for financial predictions, eh?

CU Later: Great post. Thank you. Nobody knows nothing - John Bogle Solution: Own the market and stay-the-course. Best wishes. Taylor In this case, the prediction was about bonds. Plenty of Bogleheads were encouraging folks to go shorter in their bond holdings. Because “rates have nowhere to go but ...
by HomerJ
Sun Jun 16, 2019 7:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Watches as investments?
Replies: 19
Views: 1790

Re: Watches as investments?

I recently saw a YouTube video by “Mr. Wonderful” of Shark Tank fame explaining that buying certain watches are a good investment vehicle. He mentioned six watches, made by Patek Phillipe, Rolex, AP, and one more watchmaker, I believe. I also saw another video explaining the same topic of buying ce...
by HomerJ
Sat Jun 15, 2019 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7170

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

I also hear the "nobody knows nothing" saying around here a lot. There is a basic truth to this, that none of us know as much as we think. Indeed, the more I learn, the more I realize how much I don't know. It is a statement that we shouldn't be so sure of ourselves and should exercise humility. Bu...
by HomerJ
Sat Jun 15, 2019 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7170

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

HomerJ, skepticism is a good thing but taken to an extreme is non-productive. For example, one could doubt their own existence. We don't know the odds for the future. We can however look to the past for clues about what might happen in the future. Sort of a history doesn't repeat just rhymes type o...
by HomerJ
Sat Jun 15, 2019 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7170

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

Part of this is knowing who and what to trust. I trust John Bogle, Bill Bernstein, Larry Swedroe as being intellectually honest. Each have their opinions which doubtlessly affect the conclusions they draw from financial data but I know what they say is heartfelt. In other words they say what they r...
by HomerJ
Sat Jun 15, 2019 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7170

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

What we are doing is stacking the odds in our favor the best we can, no guarantees of course. See, my position is that we don't really know the odds. It's like watching 93 hands of blackjack, without knowing the rules of the game, and then deriving what we THINK the rules and the odds are from just...
by HomerJ
Sat Jun 15, 2019 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7170

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

It may be that the model and strategy are correct, and AQR got unlucky. That absolutely is true. It's also reasonable to wonder, when results are bad, that maybe, just maybe, their model has a flaw. I find the very strong faith in back-tested models that, so far, have failed going forward, very stra...
by HomerJ
Sat Jun 15, 2019 1:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 420
Views: 35935

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Rental properties are a part-time job that could become a full-time job. No thanks. As a retired old geezer, this is what I love about rentals. And, as I got older, I loved it while I was still working. One of the pieces of advice I consistently read is that a very good way to stretch your retireme...
by HomerJ
Sat Jun 15, 2019 12:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run
Replies: 337
Views: 17288

Re: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run

And finally all the evidence in 1990 re structural advantages were in favor of Japan, but no one remember that. Reserve currency in dollars... come on. Not ALL structural advantages were in favor of Japan. Bogle may have been lucky, but this argument where he would have been 100% Japan if he was bo...
by HomerJ
Fri Jun 14, 2019 4:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: From Simplicity to Complexity
Replies: 10
Views: 852

Re: From Simplicity to Complexity

I have noticed something about myself, and am wondering if I'm alone. I learned about the Boglehead way of investing about two years ago. Since then, I've sold all my individual stocks, am invested in only index funds (with small and temporary exceptions; see below), and have developed an asset all...
by HomerJ
Fri Jun 14, 2019 2:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 420
Views: 35935

Re: Why are your NOT buying rental properties?

But for me at least a lot comes with being able to do some work yourselves . The roi in rentals had been good. Technically, that's like saying the ROI in my normal job has been good. I would not be interested in real estate if I had to do any of the work on the units myself to get a decent return. ...
by HomerJ
Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Opening a Robinhood account for fun - Is it worth it?
Replies: 18
Views: 2053

Re: Opening a Robinhood account for fun - Is it worth it?

Every hobby costs money. No they don't. Running in the park doesn't cost me a dime. Do you run barefoot? :) Playing guitar, on the guitar I've had for 30 years doesn't cost a dime. Lifting weights on the equipment I have had for 15 years doesn't cost a dime. Those cost something at one time. Readin...
by HomerJ
Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run
Replies: 337
Views: 17288

Re: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run

Hard to decide where to draw the line in putting the portfolio together. Investing can actually be quite simple, if you guys would just accept "pretty good" instead of shooting for "optimal". "Pretty good" will still make you rich. “Even better” does the same thing as “pretty good”, just faster and...
by HomerJ
Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7170

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

Nothing is wrong with AQR. The owners of AQR went from not being on the billionaire list to being on the billionaire list (plus some). From 2017: https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanvardi/2017/03/20/how-cliff-asness-became-a-billionaire-by-building-the-vanguard-of-hedge-funds/#3db352e723a4 At 50, Asn...
by HomerJ
Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run
Replies: 337
Views: 17288

Re: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run

Hard to decide where to draw the line in putting the portfolio together. Investing can actually be quite simple, if you guys would just accept "pretty good" instead of shooting for "optimal". "Pretty good" will still make you rich. “Even better” does the same thing as “pretty good”, just faster and...
by HomerJ
Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run
Replies: 337
Views: 17288

Re: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run

Random Walker wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:23 pm
Hard to decide where to draw the line in putting the portfolio together.
Investing can actually be quite simple, if you guys would just accept "pretty good" instead of shooting for "optimal".

"Pretty good" will still make you rich.
by HomerJ
Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Monte Carlo Simulation
Replies: 44
Views: 3458

Re: Monte Carlo Simulation

A Monte Carlo model that randomly grabs a year is likely going to produce too many really good combinations of years, and too many really bad combinations of years. I would be very careful of using such a model to try and produce very low failure rates (less than 5%). I prefer a Monte Carlo that us...
by HomerJ
Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retired at 35 and have no friends :(
Replies: 113
Views: 10669

Re: Retired at 35 and have no friends :(

Tycoon wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 8:56 am
Spread the word that you've got money. Friends will show up.
"I got dozens of friends and the fun never ends
That is, as long as I'm buying."

-Styx - "Too Much Time on My Hands"
by HomerJ
Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run
Replies: 337
Views: 17288

Re: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run

I don’t really see a problem. I don’t see these factors as coming and going like bell bottom jeans and leisure suits. To me it’s been a one way, unidirectional, move towards explaining the behavior of assets and portfolios. What happened to CCFs? They don't seem to be mentioned any more. CCFs are n...
by HomerJ
Wed Jun 12, 2019 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run
Replies: 337
Views: 17288

Re: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run

Random Walker wrote:
Wed Jun 12, 2019 4:14 pm
I don’t really see a problem. I don’t see these factors as coming and going like bell bottom jeans and leisure suits. To me it’s been a one way, unidirectional, move towards explaining the behavior of assets and portfolios.
What happened to CCFs? They don't seem to be mentioned any more.
by HomerJ
Wed Jun 12, 2019 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities are a bet on future inflation rates and should not be purchased by retirees
Replies: 176
Views: 11761

Re: Annuities are a bet on future inflation rates and should not be purchased by retirees

A nominal annuity would have comparable inflation risk to nominal bonds. This isn't exactly correct. Bonds usually have shorter terms than "the rest of your life", and can be rolled over. I agree that TIPs and i-bonds are a good way to protect yourself against inflation, but short-term bonds aren't...
by HomerJ
Wed Jun 12, 2019 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AliBaba
Replies: 178
Views: 22494

Re: AliBaba

SuperSaver wrote:
Wed Jun 12, 2019 9:09 am
Let's see how my prediction has fared nearly 5 years ago since BABA's IPO:

VTI: +44%
BABA: +70%

:sharebeer
Did you completely ignore dividends? Because VTI pays dividends each year, and BABA doesn't.
by HomerJ
Tue Jun 11, 2019 5:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which Engineering Discipline for the next 20+ years !!!
Replies: 155
Views: 16016

Re: Which Engineering Discipline for the next 20+ years !!!

Whatever career path you choose, you MUST have some Business / Financial knowledge to succeed. As an engineering leader you will need to manage projects and people. These require budgets and planning. Capable communications with your management and your customers. The career path for an entry level...
by HomerJ
Tue Jun 11, 2019 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"
Replies: 248
Views: 15361

Re: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"

You are over-thinking this. Right. Because we never want to learn something new, become too smart, or make decisions that are too well-informed. Economics isn't a science like physics. There are no repeatable experiments, there are EXTREMELY limited data points, and human emotions and human laws (w...
by HomerJ
Tue Jun 11, 2019 12:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run
Replies: 337
Views: 17288

Re: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run

Same thing with investing, smart people when they learn something new that has strong evidence and logic behind it you change your views. Which is it? Factors for the long run? Or change when something new comes along? I don't think "change when something new comes along" quite captures the full me...
by HomerJ
Mon Jun 10, 2019 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"
Replies: 248
Views: 15361

Re: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"

I think for many some degree of mental accounting give them a lot of peace of mind. So it maximizes their utility (and I think it is often logical to maximize utility). For example emergency funds are commonly used even by people with large taxable accounts. This is clearly mental accounting but I ...
by HomerJ
Mon Jun 10, 2019 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"
Replies: 248
Views: 15361

Re: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"

An investor who expresses a preference for stable bonds REGARDLESS of how those bonds affect the total return of the portfolio is, without question, behaving irrationally. This is, of course, incorrect. A person is not irrational because they are not focused on total return. I think the real logica...
by HomerJ
Fri Jun 07, 2019 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run
Replies: 337
Views: 17288

Re: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run

larryswedroe wrote:
Wed Jun 05, 2019 1:15 pm
Same thing with investing, smart people when they learn something new that has strong evidence and logic behind it you change your views.
Which is it? Factors for the long run? Or change when something new comes along?
by HomerJ
Wed May 29, 2019 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2% withdrawal rate
Replies: 182
Views: 12728

Re: 2% withdrawal rate

I'm of the opinion that a 2% withdrawal rate or less is the only prudent way to draw on one's portfolio for retirement before the age of 50. Does anyone disagree with this opinion? If so, why? I disagree with this opinion because of math. 2% is spending less than dividends from a 50/50 stock/bond p...
by HomerJ
Wed May 29, 2019 10:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I afford this 2.3 million dollar home?
Replies: 252
Views: 21459

Re: Can I afford this 2.3 million dollar home?

Income: Combined annual income $850k, will increase to 1-1.2 mil next year. Fairly secure employment. Why will it increase so much next year? That guaranteed? How secure? 10 years secure? If one of you lost of your jobs today, would it be easy to get another job making the same kind of money? You c...
by HomerJ
Wed May 29, 2019 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities are a bet on future inflation rates and should not be purchased by retirees
Replies: 176
Views: 11761

Re: Annuities are a bet on future inflation rates and should not be purchased by retirees

Bottom line is that this article is effectively advising retirees to avoid buying annuities, IMO. Retirees are gigantically exposed to inflation risk, and it's one of the most important risks they should consider. Bottom line, nothing is that black and white. A retiree that annuitized ALL their mon...
by HomerJ
Wed May 29, 2019 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run
Replies: 337
Views: 17288

Re: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run

Most people don’t appreciate that a typical 60/40 portfolio has 85-90% of its risk wrapped up in a single factor. And a 30/70 stocks/bonds portfolio has like 95% of its risk wrapped up in a single factor. So your method of determining risk makes it sound like the 30/70 portfolio is even riskier tha...
by HomerJ
Wed May 29, 2019 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities are a bet on future inflation rates and should not be purchased by retirees
Replies: 176
Views: 11761

Re: Annuities are a bet on future inflation rates and should not be purchased by retirees

Almost all questions regarding should I take a non COLA pension or a lump sum is answered take the pension. A non COLA pension or annuity is not a perfect option. It provides some protection for outliving your assets but exposes the holder to diminishing purchasing power due to inflation. Usually t...
by HomerJ
Tue May 28, 2019 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So I think I'm nearly sold on the S&P Low Volatility indexes for my entire retirement portfolio
Replies: 39
Views: 4822

Re: So I think I'm nearly sold on the S&P Low Volatility indexes for my entire retirement portfolio

SovereignInvestor wrote:
Tue May 28, 2019 8:11 pm
Be careful with the outperformance of low volitlity of the past. The low.volatility stocks tend to be higher yielding ones and they have done well over last 25 years for same reason bonds did...because faIlong rates.
This is important for the OP to read.
by HomerJ
Tue May 28, 2019 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities are a bet on future inflation rates and should not be purchased by retirees
Replies: 176
Views: 11761

Re: Annuities are a bet on future inflation rates and should not be purchased by retirees

Zvi Bodie and Dirk Cotton advise that nominal annuities carry uncertain inflation risk for retirees and that only real annuities should be purchased or none: Economic theory implies that, faced with a choice between two annuities (SPIAs) costing the same amount, one of which is fixed in nominal dol...
by HomerJ
Tue May 28, 2019 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 708
Views: 42512

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

I would say the biggest additional risks a trend following strategy assumes are: user error & freak whipsaw events that "break the strategy". Yes, that's what I mean. I think will won't have any issues with user error, but there certainly could be a couple of freak whipsaw events that don't match t...